WWJ VI: Return to Midsomer Mawlin - Kill me again

[Kitanna]

Thank you, Diamond, for providing me with Jenny's Fea defense. She made the post minutes before voting closed. I find it hard to believe Jenny really thought Fea wasn't going to get the noose and it's just too sloppy of a move for a wolf to make. If Jenny knew when day was going to end I don't think she would have made such a statement unless she really thought Fea was innocent. Now it's possibly Jenny let time get away from her and she forgot when day was going to end and she was jumping to defend her fellow wolf. I still find her suspicious, but slightly less so.

Of those I've mentioned thus far I'd say Kuru is the more wolfish than Boromir and Jenny. And Jenny is more wolfish than Boromir.

[mormegil]

I haven't quite caught up all the way but I wanted to say a couple of quick things and then catch up.

Boromir, I'm not sure I'm convinced at all of Kuru's guilt. If anybody here knows how Wofl Fea operates it would be me. Now before everybody goes and jumping up and down like a chimp pointing their finger at me in accusation think hard about this. Our ancestors, who actually lived in this village during the first wolf attack, were wolves. It seems that my blood line has been purged of the taint but Fea's has embraced it. I would think would be more likely to slightly accuse those with whom she serves. You seem to be going to quickly into this conclusion and only basing it on one thing. Admitedly we did that on day one to our profit but this is day 2 and we have a bit more evidence. I could be wrong but I'm not ready to swing my axe at Kuru.

Wolves you missed a very subtle clue left by your comrade. I will even go so far as to point it out.

Originally Posted by Feawolf

++Mormegil

I'm too uncertain of Nogrod's guilt for Morm's insistence to sit right. Please forgive me if I'm voting against an innocent or, Mith Forbid, a seer.

Now you mangy nincompoops make of it what you will. I will leave this enigma for them to make out. Do they kill me thinking I'm the seer or am I an ordo offering myself to the slaughter to give one more night to the seer?

ENJOY!

Originally Posted by JennyHallu

Mormegil
Well, honestly, I haven't seen enough from him to say one way or the other what I think of him, and I'm not going to try to analyse him.

Are you serious? Jenny everything you are saying and doing makes me suspect you more and more. Your defensiveness yesterday, your 'carefully wording everything' today, this comment. I may be casting my vote in your direction. Those whom I suspect most from yesterday, according to what Fea said in her outline, are:

Azaelia
Oddwen
Kitanna

then

Diamond
Boro
Firefoot
Jenny
Nogrod

lastly

Morm
Kuru
Gil

The grouping are in order but the ranking within the grouping is not.

Boro, I realize Sleepy is dead but I wrote that at night and when I posted I didn't have time to edit. I was already running late for a meeting so I threw it on and ran.

[Kuruharan]

I hate to keep dragging this up, but since Boromir seems insistent on making an issue out of this, especially since it seems to be his only real issue with me…

Fea plain out said "I love you Kuru." Now that Fea is a wolf this is the most obvious sign that Kuru is also one. Yet everyone's saying it's way too obvious and Fea's unpredictable we can't take it serious. That's what she wants you to think! That's what the wolves want you to think! She came flat out and said she loved Kuru, and the only person a wolf would love is another wolf.

This really makes no logical sense whatsoever. First of all, how could one take “I love you Kuruharan” seriously at the same moment that she’s trying to start a bandwagon to lynch me? That makes no sense. I guess it’s like those people who “love” their significant other so much that they kill them to prevent them from ever being with somebody else…or something. I’m afraid I just really don’t follow Boromir’s thinking here.

Second, everybody knows that Fea and I don’t get on that well. This stems from certain circumstances of which some of you are undoubtedly aware. This provides her with more than ample motivation for her to try and cause trouble for me from the outset (especially considering this is the first time she and I had been in similar, or indeed reverse, circumstances). It seems like this was her little way of getting back at me. What would be more natural for her to do? This explanation makes more sense than some deranged impulse to “vote for me as her fellow wolf.”

I mean, what exactly is the upside to this little plan that is attributed to Fea? Could somebody explain to me why she’d want to do that? Admittedly, she’s more than a little bit strange, but she normally has some degree of purpose to her actions, even if it is just to cause trouble.

Now, believe it or not, I’m personally not convinced that Boromir is a wolf. I think there is a distinct possibility that he is innocent and has blown one circumstance all out of proportion and has built a case out of it. I’ve heard that this sort of thing can happen where the innocents are all so convinced that they are all guilty that they slaughter each other and the wolves slip by to victory by default. I don’t want that to happen this time, but I’m afraid that is exactly what is happening here.

This leads me to want to focus more on some of the quieter players (admittedly this is sort of following Nogrod’s lead, so I’m stating that up front before anybody tries to make an issue out of it. I’m also not advocating ignoring more noticeable players. However, I think I might be justified in thinking that certain people might be getting overlooked).

Azaelia
Oddwen
Kitanna
Gil-Galad

Gil-Galad is as always the most awkward, so I’m going to deal with him first. There is never any telling about him, and I’m almost philosophically opposed to the idea of jumping on the Gil bandwagon “just because.” However, it is always possible that he is a wolf. He did not vote yesterday and he casts a very early vote for me based on rather suspect suspicion (of course, I would say that). However, he could be a wolf trying to jump on a bandwagon that somebody else (who could very well be innocent) started and then be completely covered in the rather unfortunate aftermath. It is possible.

There, I got that out of the way.

Azaelia seems to be constrained by time considerations. At least that is her stated reason. She was one of the early people to vote for Nogrod yesterday. Could be a wolf heading for the tall grass through finding a convenient cover vote.

Oddwen hasn’t really contributed a whole lot. As a matter of fact, in post 39 she literally said as much. She voted for Sleepy Ranger because she didn’t want to vote for Nogrod.

Kitanna is probably the least quiet of the quiet folk. I don’t really have anything against her except that she seems to think me a wolf, which is not necessarily evidence. Her posts have usually at least been cognitive in nature, which is more than I can say about some people.

Since the cases against these people are admittedly about as feeble as they come, I’ll stop and see if anybody has any comment they want to make about them.

[Nogrod]

Here’s a shortcut to the most heated discussion: and please people, inform me if I have interpreted yourselves wrongly. This is just how I saw that one piece of argument. I’ll send it like this and come at least for one mail to have some ideas about it, before I go to sleep.

Kuruharan #93: defends Jenny’s innocence, and comes to suspect me again – although admitting that my doings would be an doings of an innocent (= no reason given for this suspicion!). Interesting twist, as she withdraw his vote from me to vote Jenny at the last moment, making it possible to kill a wolf....

Boromir #94: Attacks mildly Firefoot, full swing against Kuru (on the basis of them joking).

Jenny #97: Points to Kuru’s weak evidence against her.

Kuru #101: Denies being answerable to the whims by Fea. Minimally shoves off Jenny’s arguments: suspecting her of piggy-backing.

Jenny #103: Noting Kuru, that she had a bad argument as she had been the first of them to vote for me... so no pig-backing.

Boromir #106: Very assured. He got Feanor, he has Kuru also, because of the wolves having a amiable chat with each other. (Was he the one to come up with this “Fea’s the wolf” –thing?)

Kuru #107: Shields a brag from Boromir, apologizes for his mistake with Jenny, defends not voting for Fea.

Firefoot #109: Denies Boro’s reasoning about my guiltlesness with some good grounds – Boro came up with nothing to back it – but also odd grounds: I would have changed my vote at that last instant in any case: not only, if I’d be a wolf, but more so, as I am a villager (otherwise I should have had very firm grounds to believe, Fea was the seer – otherwise I wouldn’t have sacrificed myself – and my sacrifice would have taken a self-vote!). Denies anything that Fea said, could be of any interest.

Boro #111: Incredible argument about my different guilt by changing votes at the last instance, whethwer Fea was innocent or not. No logic at all! Then even more dubious argument: he thinks I’m “clean” because I contributed to the lynching of a wolf! I was just saving myself – I even apologized Fea publicly about it! Accuses Firefoot.

Firefoot #112: Checking Boro – post 27 Boro brings together Fea and Jenny as “lighthearted”. Almost accusing Boro of safe-voting a fellow wolf and then actually bragging about his cleanliness by that.

Jenny #113: Voices her growing suspicion about Boro. Clears Firefoot.

Boromir #115: Makes a very strong attack on Kuru, by his assuredness – and being right already before. Proclaims himself annoyed, because no-one believes him.

WOW. About all of these people seem to be talking illogically or arguing very badly! We can't have this many wolves!!!

[Kuruharan]

defends Jenny’s innocence, and comes to suspect me again – although admitting that my doings would be an doings of an innocent (= no reason given for this suspicion!).

I apologize for that. I thought my meaning was clear, but I see that I did leave that sort of hanging in the air.

My theory, if you are a wolf, is that you turned on your fellow wolf Fea when you had a chance to save yourself by doing so. This way you would build up credibility for yourself that you were innocent by voting for a wolf and save your own bacon at the same time.

Now, obviously, nobody can fault you for this per se. The issue is if you are a wolf.

I'm uncertain about you at the moment, although I still think your spirited defense yesterday speaks in your favor.

I thought it only fair to explain myself further (although you might wish I hadn't )

[Boromir88]

Boromir, I'm not sure I'm convinced at all of Kuru's guilt.~mormegil

Would you be convinced if I said I'm 2 for 2?

Yes you heard it, 2 for 2. I dreamt of Feanor on the first night quickly finding out her wolvish ways. I wanted to lay low being the only gifted in the village, but still if the wolves were able to catch on to me I wanted to leave something for the village to notice that I dreamt of Feanor. I am grateful that Sleepy (whether intentionally or not) voted for Feanor as it gave me good cover during the night where I was able to spot our second wolf...and of course it's Kuruharan if you haven't figured out. As I said I found her fun and games with Kuru quite suspicious and that was the wolves downfall.

I was hoping not to have to reveal myself tonight, but I definitely would want to see Kuruharan lynched, even if I have to reveal myself and die at night. I don't know if this will turn out to be the right move or not. I feel confident leaving the hands now up to the rest of you innocent villagers to find the last wolf. Hopefully I've performed my job well and it's been a pleasure while I've been here.

I don't know of anyone's innocence for sure, as I've only dreamt of the wolves . I feel pretty confident that mormegil and nogrod are innocent. I'm unsure on Jenny though will put her as a likely innocent. Again, nothing is for sure however.

I am highly suspicious of Firefoot, though I don't know if Feanor would be that bold and protect two of her companions. However, I will say Firefoot is my top suspect right now.

As far as the others I'd watch out for Oddwen, Azaelia, and the other ones who haven't been around. This will be one of my last times on tonight, again fellow villagers it's been a pleasure. I am now trusting you to find the last wolf. Audios.

Edit: My antics and craziness today of going full out Kuru and rather being a bit...umm arrogant, was to gage and get anything to see who the last wolf was. Right now I think it may be Firefoot, but again I encourage you all to take time, be careful and make the right decision.

[Nogrod]

Well, this is quite a news!

And most incredible news indeed... having dreams of two wolves in continuation! (Or whatever it is in English to say that one thing comes just right after the other...). Kind of a miracle that one too (remember last night...)

Kind of can't believe, and then I can. (Your recklesness as a seer even tops mine at my first game... )

I was on my way of making analysis of you all heated discussers of today, as I ran into this. Have to think now. It's almost 4AM here, and need some sleep first...

This is getting even more than interesting!

[Nogrod]

But concerning Kuru: here's my part on Kuru, that I had time to make before seeing your mail:

Preliminary thoughts = all is underway = this is so twisted.

Kuru: seems to be "slipping" too much to be the famous player... and very carefully tongued to admit the numerous errors. I don't especially suspect you, but there is something odd here. Your involvement in last nights peculiar happenings was very indirect, so can't pick on you there (well you just made it possible for me to get off the hook by Morm! So thanks anyhow!).

(And thanks about the clarification in #125, and I don't mind: everyone's allowed their theories. But sincerely, I think there is now a grave misunderstanding for my part, or by you others (you and Boro). It was 3-3. It would most likely have been a double lynch by Mith. What do I do? Let us both die, or save myself? Whoever I would be, there is only one way to go, unless having a strong faith in Fea's seership...)

[mormegil]

++Kuruharan

I believe Boromir and now that he has declared it I can see the excitment in his posts. Well done dear seer though I had hoped I provided sufficient camouflage for you not to die tonight. Alas, it is too late for you to dream again. Now there will be significantly less talk today too.

[Diamond18]

Boro has come right out and said he's the Seer.

This could mean:

A: He's the Seer and is throwing himself, quite literally, to the wolves.

B: He's a wolf and this is a bold ploy.

C: He's an ordinary villager who is so sure of his hunch that he's willing to throw himself to the wolves by falsly claiming to be the Seer.

If he's A, then I guess I should be voting for Kuru forthwith.

If he's B, I should be voting for him.

If he's C, I may stick with my suspicions of Jenny.

Gosh. This is exciting.

[Boromir88]

A: He's the Seer and is throwing himself, quite literally, to the wolves.

It's A. I'll be with holding my vote to make sure no one messes with it at the end.

I had hoped I provided sufficient camouflage for you not to die tonight.

Sorry if I botched things, I just wanted to make sure we got Kuru lynched today. But I do feel fairly confident that you fellas can take care of the last wolf. Though I won't forgive myself if it doesn't happen...well maybe I will

[Kitanna]

I'm inclined to believe Boromir is the seer, just judging by his posts against Kuru.

A: He's the Seer and is throwing himself, quite literally, to the wolves.

B: He's a wolf and this is a bold ploy.

C: He's an ordinary villager who is so sure of his hunch that he's willing to throw himself to the wolves by falsly claiming to be the Seer.

If he's not the seer, there's only one way we can find out for sure.

I trust Boromir, if he were a wolf I don't think he'd be so bold.

++Kuru

[mormegil]

It would be completely asinine for a wolf Boromir to proclaim himself at this point. As it stands he's only a bit hasty.

[Diamond18]

I'm going to go with option A

Why? Well, if Boro is a wolf he won't die tonight, and we can kill him tomorrow with that knowledge. If Boro is an ordinary villager, I don't really think he'd pretend to be the Seer. It could get us all killed and no villager wants that.

+ + Kuruharan

If Kuru is a wolf and dies, and Boro dies in the night, we'll know what happened.

If Kuru is innocent and Boro does not die in the night, we'll know what happened.

If Kuru is a wolf, and Boro doesn't die in the night, then the last wolf is just insane -- either an insane Boro thinking he can get away with killing his fellow wolf, or an insane wolf thinking s/he can get away with making Boro look wolfish and letting the villagers lynch him after Kuru.

Worst case scenario:

If Kuru is innocent and Boro dies in the night, it means he was a bluffing villager who was mistaken. I'll trust that Boro wouldn't put us in that position.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by mormegil

It would be completely asinine for a wolf Boromir to proclaim himself at this point. As it stands he's only a bit hasty.

It's just his hastiness, that makes me wonder.

In principle I'm inclined to trust him - all the marks would show this to be true - and a real wonder at the same time (two wolves, two nights)!

As I'm not so experienced as most of you are, I hope you allow me some sleep first (= thinking about different possibilities and not getting any sleep at all!).

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Ok. I am finally back. Sorry, sorry, sorry about the lack of participation until now.

Originally Posted by Morm

Azaelia is worthy of mention because of how quickly she jumped on the Nogrod train I formed. Now this last bit is contingent upon Nogrod being innocent, of which I am not fully convinced but strongly leaning in that direction.

I would have voted for Norgod the first day whether or not you had voted for him previously. I was pressed for time, and he was so vocal against us quieter folk so early on in the game, and it just didn't sit right with me, as I said before. That's not to say I think he's guilty now, or that I think he's innocent. I think he's someone we have to watch out for just based on that overeager first-day behavior. But I'll stop beating that particular dead horse (please excuse the expression), because I think that there are some others that we need to watch out for.

Namely, Kuru. I don't have any evidence to support this claim, but if Boro's our seer, then yes, Kuru must be a wolf.

Boromir

Originally Posted by Boromir88

This makes me look more suspicious but frankly I don't care anymore.

That alone was enough to convince me of Boro's innocence. Usually wolves don't make moves that would draw suspicion, especially in the first couple days. They just lost one yesterday, and I doubt that they're going to be right out in the open at all so soon.
I am also inclined to trust his claim to be a seer, mainly because no one else has come out and said, "He's a liar, I'm the seer!". Again, so soon after the loss of one of their own, I think the wolves are going to want to keep quiet for a bit and try to pick off as many of us as they can without making any risky moves. Also, his previous posts were full of pretty much un-supported claims that he has a feeling, citations of little nitpicky things that most people wouldn't consider evidence, etc. I consider him a seer with a target, and I am very inclined to go with his instinct.
There'd be no point in a villager claiming to be a seer, because again, the real seer would come out and say it. (at least, I think they would).

So what happens today? We lynch Kuru. He's a wolf. We're happy for a night, until the untimely demise of our seer a few hours later.

Or, we lynch Kuru. He's not a wolf. We think, "oh gee. We're dumb." and lynch Boro on the morrow.

Or we don't do either of these things, in which case, there's no clear path to follow.

I think I'll just say now that I am inclined to trust our seer, having no evidence to the contrary. So unless something changes, my vote tomorrow will go to Kuru.

The real seer, if you're not Boro, should probably speak up.

Kuru, you've got some fast talking to do.

But now, I am very tired (my dad surprised us with a ski outing today, so I am ready to sleep). Never fear, though. I expect to get in some quality time here in the morning. Expect a more detailed analysis of our situation/the other players then, as I can't think particularly straight now. 'Till then, all.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

You know what, actually, I don't think there's much more thinking about toDay's vote for me.

I trust Boro, and will miss his input, as I think he'll be the one we find dead tomorrow (it would, I agree with Morm, be a dumb move for a wolf to say he's the seer now).

So. My vote is solid, set in stone (so far, I'm not liking all the retracting that happened yesterday, it confuses me, so I'm not doing that). I've committed myself to our Seer's cause.

++Kuru

Here's hoping that Boro is who he says he is, and that the second wolf is going down at the end of today.

I will still be back on in the morning, to post a full summary as I promised in my last post, since I don't like how little I've been contributing.

[JennyHallu]

Well we'll get this out of the way...

++Kuruharan

Two wolves on the first two days!

Yay! And I feel very good to have been vindicated in my feelings about Kuru.

Now comes the hard part. Boromir, excellent, excellent seering.

[mormegil]

Boromir,

May I ask why you are suspicious of Firefoot? I would like to hear what you have to say before you are mauled. Alas, I wish we had a ranger but we have him not.

[mormegil]

Sorry for the double post

Gil,

I would like to add my name to the list with Nogrod of frustration over your lack of interest and concern. I don't think you are guilty though I could be wrong so I'm not for lynching you in such a small village, but if we have more of a buffer I would be all for it. I really don't understand it...care to explain.

[Diamond18]

Morm, I don't think you're going to get a response from Gil, he said over on the admin thread that he's going to be gone till Sunday evening.

[JennyHallu]

Yeah, and he doesn't usually stick around anyhow. And while I absolutely agree with you and Nogrod on his "tactics" his vote for Kuruharan as a random vote after Kuru'd gathered suspicion and before Boro revealed makes me think of him as 99.5% likely to be innocent. I suggest we play as though he isn't there unless he proves otherwise (which means real and substantial contributions)

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Diamond18

Morm, I don't think you're going to get a response from Gil, he said over on the admin thread that he's going to be gone till Sunday evening.

I know but I can still pose the question and have a modicum of hope that he may actually read through the posts.

[JennyHallu]

I'm going to take this extra time we've gained to take a look over the village and see if combining the clues both Kuru and Fea have left give us a better idea of who to look at for our last wolf.

Fea:

#10

Random vote on Kuruharan. Says she loves him.

#13

Says retractable votes are a "form of recreation like mormy's drugs"

#16

Retracts Kuruharan vote. Agrees with Nogrod and advises we "mercilessly slaughter the quiet ones". Asks if she can kill Nogrod.

This post includes the infamous "Fea's a wolf" line.

#21

"Corrects" Nogrod's math. Here I think she's making fun of us. Nogrod gave a 1:4 chance, Fea suggested the correct ratio would be .5:2. Anyone other than me notice this seems odd? A good argument for Noggie's innocence?

#35

Is disappointed no one came back about the maths. No wonder. Now that I've noticed this I understand your suspicion of her better, Morm. First post that seemed substantive. Suggests lynching Nogrod, whether or not he's innocent. Pleads sleepiness and leaves (we suppose.

#49

Apologises for absense, promises analysis of entire village.

#61

Promised Analysis:
Zali: Innocent for now, but quiet. Suggests waiting.
Boro: suggests possible wolvishness, but again suggests waiting
Diamond: Mentions she's laying low, wonders if that's just because she's new. Suggests more participation.
Fea: Admits erratic posting. Claims busy schedule.
Firefoot: Says she accused Boro but voted Gil. Suggests leaving her around due to general helpfulness.
Gil: Mentions tradition of killing him off, and Gil's track record as an innocent
Jenny: Says she's unfamiliar with my style, but that if I'm a wolf I'd be a good one. Said I had quality posts. I'm not a wolf, in case anyone is wondering, and Fea was evil and fuzzy...but I feel kind of flattered nonetheless. Is that ok?
Kitanna: Claims she hasn't got Kitanna classed one way or another. Ok, the only way that could be true is if she wondered if Kitanna were the seer. So either she's trying to bluff us entirely, or she thought Kitanna is our seer. Any ideas? This one seems odd to me, especially after Fea's wolvishness was revealed.
Kuru: Suggests there are good reasons to bandwaggon Kuru. Well, no kidding. And once again she's making fun of us.
Morm: Wonders if he's a seer or just being abnormally aggressive.
Nogrod: Hopes Morm isn't Seeing anything she's not about Nogrod. Hoping the Seer doesn't look at Nogrod? Odd, from wolf-Fea. Reiterates that lynching the quiet is a good idea. (Could Nogrod be a wolf?)
Sleepy: Decides he's probably innocent.

Votes Mormegil.

#64

Cross-post notice.


That's all.

Just for public record, since it's still St. Patrick's Day here...let me just say that alcohol makes sensible analysis difficult. I'm going to post this and then start on Kuru. If someone else could look at who voted for Fea when, there may be more evidence there. Much to think on and the alcohol isn't helping. Maybe if I drink more I won't notice the problem.

[JennyHallu]

Ok...here goes...I just noticed I left a paren open in the above post. Not going to go back and fix it, just do it mentally as you read.

Kuruharan:

#9:

Seems mostly silly. Makes a bad pun then suggests we go after jaywalkers.

#33:

Surely I missed one? Nope...Suggests Nogrod's quiet plan is good, but moot since everyone seems to have posted.

#52:

Says only there are a nice selection of posts and that all that Fea says is scary.

#58:

Casts a vote for Nogrod, but decides that Nogrod is likely innocent, and is uncomfortable with the vote. May I point out that at this point Nogrod had a definite bandwaggon going for (or against?) him? Safe vote, I'm thinking.

#75:

Changes vote for Jenny (Hi!). Says she (me!) has been running around crazy and stirring things up and causing confusion and changing her vote around a lot. Accused her of boisterousness. I don't think it was earned. I'll leave that up to others. The question is, WHY did he change his vote? That's what bugged me from the beginning.

#83:

Justified his vote for me based on post count and general impression of me as a rabble-rouser. (That's not his word, but it's a good one and I think conveys the general idea.)

#93:

Says he's glad Fea's dead, (which he might be after her attempted bandwaggon). Says he thinks I'm innocent, but that he's suspicious of Nogrod again.

#101:

Says he can't defend himself against anything Fea brought up. Claims Fea's capriciousness due to history between himself and Fea. Says he thought yesterDay that I was attempting to piggy-back on him and jump on the Nogrod Bandwaggon. And he thinks I'm petty. I guess my reputation among the wolves isn't decisive one way or another.

#107:

Says there's no substance to Boro's accusations. Well at that point there really wasn't much. Except for the seer bit he hadn't confessed yet.

Apologises for the piggy-back thing.

#123:

Starts with a long refutation of the I Love You thing of Fea's, then goes on to suggest we look at the quiet villagers. Both Fea and Kuru kept saying to look at the quieter villagers. Makes me wonder if our third wolf is also among the loud.

#125:

Responds to Nogrod saying that he is still looking at him closely, but that he is inclined to think him innocent because of his defense yesterDay. I thought at the beginning of toDay he said Nogrod looked more suspicious. I'm confused.

Has said nothing since Boro's revelation.


Okay, alcohol is helping less and less. Can one slur one's typing?

[Diamond18]

Right now based on the behavior of Fea and Kuru I'm fairly confident that Nogrod and JennyHallu are innocent and am rather suspicious of Firefoot. Kuru voted for the first two, and Fea recommended keeping FF alive. Also, I'm inclined to think our Seer is a smart one and if he suspects FF, that's looking like good advice.

This is of course assuming that the next 24 hours or so will see both Kuru and Boro die.

[JennyHallu]

While I appreciate that you think me innocent, Diamond, we can't discount the possibility of wolf on wolf voting. My analysis has left me once again absolutely confused about Nogrod, as well as seeing Firefoot as perhaps a good direction to take our attention.

As for my confusion on Nogrod...and other things...I have a sneaking suspicion that there are a LOT of things that will seem clearer in the morning.

It was a good day, both here (though this one isn't done yet) and in RL. I will hopefully be on some tomorrow to discuss what I've brought up. As it's a Saturday, however, I promise nothing.

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by JennyHallu

While I appreciate that you think me innocent, Diamond, we can't discount the possibility of wolf on wolf voting. My analysis has left me once again absolutely confused about Nogrod, as well as seeing Firefoot as perhaps a good direction to take our attention.

Well, the fact that Kuru voted for Nogrod at first but then changed his vote to you is a bit suspicious, as if he started out wolf-on-wolf to test the waters but then changed in an attempt to spare Nogrod. However, since he made an attempt to shift suspicion back onto Nogrod today, for vague reasons, I'm just wondering if that's an indication of innocence on Nogrod's part. Would he attempt another wolf-on-wolf campaign when there's only two of them left?

[Firefoot]

First let me say that I am exceedingly scared for this village. Talk about deja vu from the last time there was this village set up... aka WW I... I had a funny feeling about this at the start of the Day, and it's just ripening right up.

++Kuru

I see no reason (or little reason) why Boromir would be lying. If he is a wolf, he is basically setting himself up for slaughter on the next Day, and this would help the wolves not much at all at this point.

I see that I am coming under suspicion for so-called alliances, and I have little to say to that. I had intended to do a more complete analysis earlier but I ran out of time after looking at Boromir, who, as I said, had simply jumped out at me. And I will yet do an analysis on the rest of you, but not tonight (it's about midnight...). If some more concrete suspicions come up against me I may defend myself and I may not; I'm standing behind what I've said as it has seemed the best course of action at the time. I would ask that you not simply go after me because Boromir suspects me; other than his dreams he is no more knowledgeable than the rest of us.

More when I wake up in the morning.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Azaelia of Willowbottom

The real seer, if you're not Boro, should probably speak up.

??? Why on earth???

No help from my RL sleep... I can see no reason for Boro to lie about his seership.

++ Kuruharan

This is good news Boro!

If we just had a ranger around...

[Mithalwen]

Under the clear majority rule, at the moment of JennyHallu's vote for Kuruharan votes became non-retractable.

Kuruharan will be lynched.

I do not have time to give him the send off he deserves now.
So..... I think you are going to have to sweat a little longer - sorry RL .. but not until 6.30 I think. I will give it until 3 or 4 to allow the North Americans to wake up - you may continue to talk.

NB Re Gil-galad I am monitoring the situation.

[Oddwen]

Well...gee...I feel rather uh, useless now...

I was all ready to go after Sleepy, but I guess that line of talk is over...

So.

Gee, this is almost like a new and different DAY, talking about the third wolf.

So I'm thinking about Fea & Kuru's talk of each other - if they talked to each other so freely, would they have tried to hide the third wolf because they knew they were at-risk?

Originally Posted by Fea

So... can I kill you Nogrod? Please? I need somebody onto whom I can latch.

I'm more inclined to see this as a sign that Nogrod is innocent. I mean, she wouldn't latch to Kuru and Nogrod, would she?. If so, does this make Mormegil's earlier pursuit wolfish? And if Nogrod is a wolf, well then, this is a very strange game. But Kuru goes back to speaking against Nogrod today. I believe that he is trying to pin something on an innocent.

Kuru votes for Nogrod on day one, but says he's not comfortable with it. Changes it to Jenny.

I think Jenny is innocent, mostly because Kuru stirred up things against her quite a bit.

So...reading back, to me, the one who seems to me most likely to be a wolf would be...Mormegil. Perhaps Kitanna.

As I likely shan't be on again toDAY, I'll vote for

++MORMEGIL

And thank you, Boro

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

??? Why on earth???

No help from my RL sleep... I can see no reason for Boro to lie about his seership.

++ Kuruharan

This is good news Boro!

If we just had a ranger around...

Norgod, in response to your question...I was not saying that Boro is not the real seer. I was saying that *IF* he isn't, someone ought to come out and say that they are the seer. However, I am very sure that Boro is...I was just making sure I had all my bases covered. I hope that cleared up your confusion.

So. The Analysis I promised.

The obvious. (I hope)
Boromir Our seer. Innocent, and doomed to die.
Kuru Our second wolf. 100% lynched.
Fea Our first wolf. Dead.

The Uncertain (Or, Everyone Else)
Norgod--I am inclined to think innocent for now...I think that a Kuru-Wolf would play things a little more carefully than to accuse a fellow wolf, especially since Fea was being so out in the open. But who knows. Maybe that's what we're supposed to think. I do now chalk up his aggression toward quiet ones to playing style, like it or not.
Gil--Is he just being Gil? Or is he a wolf riding under the convenient cover that no matter what absurd thing he does, we'll say he's just being himself? He is the true wildcard here on this list. He could be either thing. Most others, I feel like I have a sense of their character. From him, I get nothing.
Diamond18 I am content to believe she is innocent for now. She doesn't say much, and there are some things others are pointing to about her style, but I think it's just inexperience, and nothing to worry about.
Jenny --One of our more vocal players. She's also hard for me to figure out. Either she's a wolf who is trying to hide, or an innocent who just likes to speak out and mix things up. I honestly don't know. But there's nothing there that says she's our third wolf.
Firefoot Looks somewhat guilty to me. If she's a wolf, she's dangerous, which is why I'm not taking chances. Her warning against dissecting Fea's posts too carefully (Found in post #109) Could be a wolvish attempt to cover up for Kuru. Then again, could be an analysis of Fea's character by an innocent villager. That particular point is moot now, as we know that Kuru is, in fact, our other wolf.
Morm again, as with firefoot, if he's a wolf, he's dangerous, but I don't really get any feeling of red flags from him.
Oddwen She's very quiet (but then again, so am I). Her vote for Morm toDay was a bit strange, when Kuru's fate is already sealed. Is she a wolf who didn't want to jump on the bandwaggon to kill one of her pals? Or an innocent who is just trying to get the ball rolling on someone she really suspects for toMorrow?
Kitanna Voted for Kuru. I think she is innocent, just because I don't see it as something a wolf would do, especially when Kuru was already in pretty serious trouble...It's too much of a risk. Then again, his fate is pretty much sealed, and perhaps she did it to make us think she is innocent. My instinct says she's innocent, though.

I am so frequently wrong that it just isn't funny, so I don't know how all this is going to work out. I'm just telling you all what I see, though there's no guarantee that any of this is accurate...

[JennyHallu]

I would be all shock and awe astonished NOT to see the wolf in our Kuruharan bandwaggon today. Since Boro came out as the seer, there's almost no chance of Kuru's survival today. Anyone who didn't vote for him is going to look odd.

Gah! Just read over my analyses of Fea and Kuru's posting. I think the analyses are good...but my off-topic comments...can I officially say I'm embarassed for myself? (Although I am glad and mildly surprised that the analyses seem coherent.)

[Firefoot]

Alrighty, time to take a comprehensive look at everybody. For those of you who are unfamiliar with my style of analysis (this kind), the "," separates points in the same post, the ";" separates different posts, and the ";;" separates Day 1 and Day 2. The "." indicates the end of the sum up and the start of my analysis. I didn't include posts that held no apparent substance to them (e.g., the drug war posts at the start).

Jenny Hallu - is wary not suspicious of Nogrod, wants more substance from Gil, votes Gil; changes vote to Nogrod for being bloodthirsty; Nogrod - "hasty and illogical", Gil - annoying, Sleepy - vote is "odd but reasonable", Fea - "erratic", Boro - "reasonable and logical", Kuru - somewhat suspicious, Firefoot - "reasonable and logical", decides for the time being to leave her vote with Nogrod; two corrections to others' statements; defends herself to others' claims that she has been erratic and petty;; defends herself for thinking Fea innocent; thinks Nogrod is probably innocent, explains suspicion of Kuru; comments about how much effort "most people" put into wording their posts; Boro - looking more and more suspicious, thinks Nogrod innocent, still concerned about Kuru, worries about Diamond's apparent wishy-washyness, calls Oddwen, Kitanna, and Zali too quiet, Gil - hopefully innocent, Morm - unknown, me - probably innocent; inclined to believe Boro's claim; analysis of Fea's posts; analysis of Kuru's posts. My overall impression of her is innocent. She does post a lot, but it's not all wishy-washy; there is some substance to it and I can usually see where she is coming from. Not off the radar yet, but rather low.

Kitanna - is somewhat suspicious of Nogrod, feels his first three reasons for wanting to lynch silent people have some merit; Nogrod more suspicious than Morm, Gil unhelpful, Fea neutral suspicion, Sleepy unhelpful, doesn't want to vote any of them, votes Kuru mostly randomly;; Jenny - petty, Boro and Kuru - plenty of room for doubt, overall leaning towards Kuru's guilt rather than Boro's; in order of suspicion: Kuru, Jenny, Boromir; votes Kuru. I can see a possibility for a wolf here. She was not alone in her suspicion of Kuru, of course, but I can certainly see potential for a wolf going for another wolf. Not sure though; she could be innocent. Somewhere in the middle.

Diamond18 - gets quite defensive over Boromir's initial accusation of her, attempts to turn the tables around and shed some suspicion on him; is confused about who to vote for; votes Nogrod;; thinks Nogrod is proably innocent but ticked off with her, isn't sure about Jenny - sees possible connection with Fea, finds Kuru highly suspicious, isn't sure whether Morm's start of the lynch-Nogrod mob meant anything, not sure about Boro, confused about me, not much to say about Oddwen, Kitanna, Gil, and Zali; leaning towards Kuru's innocence from his interactions with Fea; says my point of most people not needing to choose carefully their words was good; defends herself to Jenny and says that she is not just agreeing with everything everyone says; lists possibilities of what Boro could really be with his claim to be seer; votes Kuru; Nogrod and Jenny - innocent, me - suspicious. Diamond seems to be a little all over the place. Some of her posts I think she could be a wolf and others not. I'm watching her but not completely suspicious of her.

Mormegil - votes Nogrod for his haste in accusing silent ones; points out Boromir's contradicting opinions about him; defends himself to Nogrod (gives air or irritation); first points out the "Fea's a wolf" line; changes vote to Fea;; posts voting, Jenny - suspicious, says Oddwen's, Kitanna's, Diamond's, and Jenny's votes of interest, is leaning towards Nogrod's innocence; growing suspicion of Jenny, groupings for suspicion (most to least): [Azaelia Oddwen Kitanna] [Diamond Boro Firefoot Jenny Nogrod] [Morm Kuru Gil]; vote Kuru; requests Boro's reasons for suspecting me; frustrated with Gil. Morm seems to be acting pretty consistently with my experience with him; however, this doesn't necessarily mean anything. He's smart enough to be able to pull it off as a wolf. I'd say leaning more innocent than guilty.

Nogrod - expresses concern over silent ones, proposes lynching one of them on the first day; comes up with his (faulty) statistics, continues proposing the silent ones be lynched; responds to people's accusations of him; gets frustrated at people's continued accusations of him for his idea of lynching silent ones; votes morm for being hypocritical, voting hastily for him, being bloodthirsty, and having an arrogant playing style; changes vote to Gil; calls Morm's actions "rampant madness," wonders why he ignores the posts of for example me, Kitanna, and Fea (significance here? or just random names?); changes vote to Fea;; comments about the amazing circumstances of Fea's death; comments that Jenny's playing style says little or nothing about her wolvishness; wants some explanation from Boro; frustrated with Gil; provides a sum-up of recent discussion; votes Kuru. Nogrod seems more like a frustrated innocent than a wolf to me, but I'm not sure. On the whole I'd say he seems fairly genuine.

Gil-galad - "alas, alas" post;; votes Kuru. Nothing to say here...

Azaelia - comes down on Nogrod for accusing the silent ones, threatens that she will probably be voting for him; votes Nogrod, wants people to vote based on the person and what they're saying rather than how loud or quiet they are;; Nogrod not sitting right, believed Boro innocent even before his seer claim, about ready to vote for Kuru; votes Kuru; Nogrod - probably innocent, Gil - unknown, Diamond - probably innocent, Jenny - hard to figure out, but probably innocent, me - somewhat guilty, morm - dangerous if a wolf, Oddwen - confusing, Kitanna - probably innocent. She seems pretty innocent to me.

Oddwen - doesn't think that vocal people are necessarily helpful; votes Sleepy;; unsure about Nogrod, votes Morm (...?). I would definitely like to hear more from Oddwen. Her posts are extremely lacking in substance.

Now a look at Fea's analysis (for clarification: I did not mean that we should not look at it at all. I meant that it should be read with a grain of salt). From her post, I would be inclined to think Nogrod and Morm more innocent, while looking more closely at Kitanna, Jenny, and Zali. Lining that up with my earlier thoughts, it would seem to point towards Kitanna as a wolf. I'm not convinced that this is so, however; thankfully there's another day to decide all of this.

Phew! That certainly took a while.

[Boromir88]

Boromir,

May I ask why you are suspicious of Firefoot? I would like to hear what you have to say before you are mauled. Alas, I wish we had a ranger but we have him not.

I planned on doing everyone of course.

Well in the next day and Night I would think Kuru and myself are out of the picture leaving:

Diamond
mormegil
Jenny
Azaelia
Oddwen
Firefoot
Gil-Galad
Kitanna
Nogrod

I feel safe to say that mormegil is innocent, though I didn't dream of him. If you aren't morm, my spirit shall come back and haunt you for the rest of your cursed life . Sorry if this is condemning you to die the day after me, but I feel pretty confident in your innocence and judgement.

The one's I'm inclined to think are innocent, but wouldn't be surprised or shocked if they are wolves:
Jenny
Nogrod
Azaelia

Jenny, because of the revelation yesterday. In her condemning us for lynching Fea...I'm sure it embarassed the heck out of her to find out Feanor was a wolf...I was kind of laughing, but it's not a move I imagine a wolf to make. I don't even think a wolf would attempt it, it definitely goes to speak towards her innocence.

Nogrod, for not allowing the double lynching to occur. Whether a wolf or innocent I would expect someone to save their life in a situation like that, and I see it as Nogrod being an innocent.

Azaelia, she seems pretty innocent, has come in made valuable posts. Though isn't one of the "heavier" posters hers have always been insightful and helpful, inclined to believe she's innocent for now, but again wouldn't be shocked if she turned out to be a wolf.

I'm unsure about:
Kitanna
Oddwen
Gil-galad
Diamond
Firefoot

Kitanna seems pretty innocent, but the "analysis of Feanor's" last night got me a little worried. I don't know whether Feanor would be that bold or not.

Oddwen, haven't seen much from her and her vote for mormegil gets me more worried about her. Kuru's fate seems apparently set in stone, so perhaps her vote is just a safe vote of some sort. Or perhaps she doesn't want the blood of a companion on her hands? But, a wolf would know this, it would look bad not to vote for your own companion when his death is evident. But what I don't understand, why mormegil? He seems to be the most innocent one here besides me.

Gil-galad, we aren't going to figure out. I believe he's probably innocent, but he's going to stay around and in the Day or 2 I would suggest you lynch Gil-galad so he doesn't become a question mark and a burden for the entire village. The later he stays around the more helpful he can only be for the wolves. Since I think he's likely innocent I wouldn't lynch him yet, but if you can't find a wolf, it would be best to get Gil-galad out of the way when there's still a substantial amount of villagers left.

Diamond, a new player, she seems to have gotten the hang of it well. Can't make her out to well, seemingly innocent but as a new member to the village I don't know how she'll be, and that could make her a dangerous last wolf. But right now there's others that stand out more.

Firefoot, the reason I've suspected Firefoot is because of Fea's post yesterday suggesting we should keep her around even if she's a wolf. He saying I loved Kuru caused the alarm to go off on me and by the grace I was given spotted the 2nd wolf. I don't know whether Feanor would be that bold to be friends to both of her companions, but it seems fishy to me.

Also, Firefoot's insistance that there can be nothing found in Feanor's posts. I believe she called Feanor "erratic and spontaneous" and don't look into her posts too much. This seems logical, but knowing Feanor's and Kuru's guilt it looks like she was trying to shy the village away from Feanor's acts yesterday which got me to dream of Kuru. So, that's why Firefoot looks the most suspicious to me. But I wouldn't encourage to go an all out lynch mob on Firefoot. She is a valuable player and as an innocent could be helpful, however I would definitely watch her tomorrow.

Firefoot and Oddwen are the two then that raise the biggest eyebrows to me.

Though his fate seems sealed I might as well make it formal. It would only be formal for me to vote I guess...

++Kuruharan

[Firefoot]

Also, Firefoot's insistance that there can be nothing found in Feanor's posts.

Okay, I can see where you're coming from here. This is what I said:

Also, I advise against trying to decipher too much out of Fea's posts about who might be innocent or guilty. Fea is insane and will have gone out of her way to confuse us all (she probably would have done that were she innocent as well). There is no way of telling how much of that she was being honest in.

I did not mean to say that nothing could be gotten out of her posts at all; I just wanted people to be careful, as I said here:

Now a look at Fea's analysis (for clarification: I did not mean that we should not look at it at all. I meant that it should be read with a grain of salt).

And:

I believe she called Feanor "erratic and spontaneous" and don't look into her posts too much.

I never called Fea erratic and spontaneous. And it would be stupid not to look at Fea's posts at all.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Oddwen

I'm more inclined to see this as a sign that Nogrod is innocent. I mean, she wouldn't latch to Kuru and Nogrod, would she?. If so, does this make Mormegil's earlier pursuit wolfish? And if Nogrod is a wolf, well then, this is a very strange game. But Kuru goes back to speaking against Nogrod today. I believe that he is trying to pin something on an innocent.

I would like just to note something on interpreteing wolf's posts and drawing conclusions on them.

1) Wolves probably try mildly to support ordos that are controversial enough in the village (possible lynched), and kill the really dangerous ones at night. But if some of their "expedient villagers" start to get out of suspicion, they will readily remind others about those suspicions...
2) You should see the context when it was made (was the wolf confident about getting it to the other day when writing, what did s/he know by the time etc.)


Really good job from Firefoot, whatever you are. And I hope you being one of us! Tend to believe her innocent. As I do for the moment with Morm and Azaelia, perhaps. Kind of gets really hard after one or two people.

Kind of sorry about having very active RL day, and can't stick my mind so wholeheartedly in this. Tomorrow, I probably hope to be of more help.

PS. Have you noticed one more curiosity about this game?
Day 1 Sleepy comes from nowhere, and with no explanations as such, votes for Fea as the first person to do that - who turns out to be a wolf.
Day 2 Gil comes from nowhere, and with no explanations as such, votes for Kuru as the first person to do that - who turns out to be a wolf!!!

This is a magical village, now it really is! (add to this the first night's incredible voting hassle ending in a dead wolf, seer having two wolves with just two dreams...)

[Mithalwen]

Despite the not unexpected horror of Commander Ranger's death, the surviving sleuths were in upbeat mood that morning. Some of the more cynical might say that at a certain level they enjoyed using their skills once again in their secluded village. Many had reverted to type and prepared cases against their fellow villagers. these included mormegil the cryptologist, Nogrod and Diamond, detectives both, and Firefoot the crimewriter. Most confident of all was the FBI man, Boromir 88. Some might have thought the Agent had overdone the "damn fine coffee - and hot!" so ardent was he in his assertion that Kuruharan, the curmudgeonly, Wagner-loving detective turned publican was another wolf but his claim to be the seer convinced the majority.

Soon the Inspector's felt was sealed and a lynchmob, more numerous and more confident than the day before, came to drag him from his bar, whence he had gone to sulk, sup real ale and do the cross word. He had just completed "Gave succour to assistant with first delivery" (5) and was working on "California Vet may make a bloomer" (7,6), when they arrived ......

"Crosswords - bah - hang him" said one.

"You are being ridiculous - you should know I woul have nothing to do with a cartoon inspector - I was a Chief Inspector - with Oxfordshire CID" He protested, gruffly.

"And look what happened to the murder rate during your time there - It was worse than the Bronx!" pointed out Azaelia.

"You are a fine one to talk - Causton is even worse- and they all got solved in the end"

"All this is academic" - said Boromir "We are going to hang you and prove that you are the solution to this anagram" he added scribbling "We send fool crew" somewhat ungrammatically across the Inspector's paper.

The hanging basket with its long dead flowers was removed from the village gibbet and they hanged Kuruharan as light faded from the sky.

There was a look of sadness in the man's clear blue eyes as they placed the noose around his neck btu he had to much dignity to resist.

The lynch mob let him fall waiting for the crack of a breaking neck. It did not come. the rope squeezed tighter and Kuruharan's face changed. Red it went first as the blood congested in his head.

"The drop wasn't long enough" - complained someone.

"It was" insisted Oddwen - "I am a professor of pathology - I know how much drop is required to break the neck of a man his size."

But then they realised that Kuruharan's face had legthened and was covered with white fur.

"But" asked Kitanna sardonically"do you know the drop for a werewolf his size?".

Before she could get an answer, Mormegil seized her cane once more and plunged it through the beast's heart.

Villagers 9 Wolves 1

Night 3 has begun.

Seer and wolf PM me. You are entitled to the full 24 hours but I may start the Day slightly earlier if I have received the necessary requests. But it is unlikely to be much earlier since I have a family lunch to go to - unless I get the requests very quickly.

[Mithalwen]

Dead:

Mithalwen - moderator killed by werewolves on Night 1
Feanor of the Peredhil - werewolf not hanged but drowned, drawn and pinned on Day 1
Sleepy Ranger - ordinary Villager, suffocated by gold paint (so tacky) on Night 2
Kuruharan - werewolf, lynched anagrammaticaly on Day 2

Living:
AoW,B88,D18,Ff,G-g,JH,Kit,Morm, Nog, Oddone,
Villagers 9 (inc Seer)
Wolves 1