Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVII: The Saga Continues to Continue quite Continuously

[Cailín]

TGWBS

#4

Lists suspicion of us all. Especially Kath.

#6

Says I am not a mermaid. Psht. Ridiculous.

#53

Suspects Wayne (because of his vote for Formendacil, mostly), Gil-Galad (because his initial defensiveness), Abercrombie (for voting Nilp. TGWBS has a strange fondness for the mentally unstable), Mormegil (basically same as my concerns) and SpM (because of his self-centeredness).

He also declares Glirdan and Nilpaurion innocent until proven otherwise.

#57

Demands explanations from Mormegil and Garin. Lets go of his suspicion of SpM a little.

#59

Votes Abercrombie.

#64

Accepts Mormegil’s explanation.

#65

Lists votes

#104

Lists votes

#113

Nothing really. Says he has similar ideas as SpM and offers a plausible suggestion.

Well, these posts goes a long way into me believing TGWBS innocent. If only he would say a bit more toDay.

GARIN

#42

Useless Day one analysis. Same thing I’m so fond of. Says nobody knows anything.

#55

Says he wishes to vote for Marcolie because she has not spoken yet. Aligns himself with Mormegil. Says he shall likely vote for Valier. Thinks Sauce an innocent, ‘because he always is’.

#58

Says he will flip a coin between Abercrombie and Valier.

#61

Blames the coin and votes for Valier.

#75

Blames the coin again.

#103

Says again that the first Day is random. Thinks we should look at isolated votes. Then something about having no social manners.

Now Garin does look suspicious in my eyes. He mostly just agrees with Saucy and Morm, which is always clever because they are likely people to bring up a case against you. His coin flipping sounds a little weird. First he is inclined to vote Marcolie, then – after Mormegil’s vote – wishes to vote for Valier and after SpM’s vote he’s suddenly more convinced of Abercrombie (as he said, he merely voted Valier because of the coin). ToDay he was eager to not be under suspicion by pointing out isolated votes are more suspicious than voting for innocents.

Hopefully I have time to do more people later on. Who's feeling up to analysing Saucy?

[The Saucepan Man]

Hurrah! Some more contributions to our debate. But they seem to be coming from the same people each time ...

Interesting how there seems to be a collective suspicion for Kath and Shelob developing - and to a lesser degree, Garin. It is possible that this is the result of Wolfish manipulation against innocents, but there are more people involved in this than Wolfish manipulation alone could account for. And those voicing these suspicions seem to be those that I have little reason to suspect at the moment.

I am thinking in particular of mormegil, dancing spawn and Cailín, all of whom seem to be thinking along the same lines as me as far as Kath and Shelob are concerned. As is malkatoj, who I am now pretty sure is innocent (based on her mistaken vote). Now I doubt that there is more than one Wolf, if any, among this lot. If there is and he or she is responsible for this gathering mood, then he or she is a very skilled manipulator indeed.

I remain slightly suspicious of Glirdan and would like to hear further from him. And I share some of the reservations expressed (particularly by Valier and Cailín) about Garin's behavior. It seemed to me yesterday that he was playing his cards close to his chest (and I said as much), and he certainly has been doing so today.

One point to pick you up on, Cailín:

I just thought that Nilpaurion has a rather easy time this game. He gathered no votes other than his own yesterDay and is still not suspected.

Nilp attracted three votes yesterday (his own, Abercrombie's and Naria's). But, his suicidal tendencies notwithstanding, I see little reason to suspect him at this stage. True, he would act suicidal whether innocent or a Wolf, but that alone is no reason to suspect him. Do you have any other reason for your suspicions?

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by SpM

EDIT: Also, I am unsure on the legality of voting for someone who is already dead and then subsequently voting for someone else (living). Given the non-retractability rule, is it allowed? Just want to be clear whether malkatoj's (second) vote will count.

I'd appreciate if Modetarmacil could enlighten us on this matter soon. However, my broadband connection is acting really weird and I think it would be best for me to vote now while it's still working. I try to come back to discuss with you later, but I want to make sure that I can vote.

Originally Posted by Cailín

She provides excellent analyses, and yet easily skips over a few parts that would not work for her theory.

Such as?
Well, anyway, the wolves aren't plain stupid, they won't act suspiciously all the time. I pick up the things I find questionable and build a theory out of them. My theories may be right or wrong, but I hope that they'd make us more talkative.

I can't for my life understand the reason why you put mormegil and I into one group saying that we don't mention each other often enough, so I won't go into that.

Btw, did you notice, you did it again: you mentioned that you, too, find Shelob suspicious, but then left it at that and started analyzing TGWBS and Garin. Were you satisfied with my summary of Shelob? Sure you don't want to add something I skipped in order to make my theory work.

Originally Posted by Sauce

True, he would act suicidal whether innocent or a Wolf

No, he wouldn't. (Although I guess that's not enough for a defense in a court.)

Ah, I can't decide yet whom I should vote for. I'll take the risk and leave voting for later till more people have said something.

[Valier]

Well it's coming close to the time I have to leave and I won't be back till after the vote.My suspisions of Garin I think are the most pressing on my mind for this day. He makes me nervous,with not knowing if he's a wolf or not...but today I do believe he is a wolf,His posting pattern is completely off, He needs to go sooner than later!

++Garin

Hope everyone votes well today and lynches us a wolf!

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Sauce

Interesting how there seems to be a collective suspicion for Kath and Shelob developing - and to a lesser degree, Garin.

Well, could one reason be that they all have posted toDay? It's much easier to talk about people who post than those who remain completely silent (or have posted only once or twice anyway).

That's why I'd like to wait with my vote till everybody has arrived.

[Garin]

I apologize for not posting more but I am currently at work and have decided to actually do my job today. I will return to post my vote and am taking a little time to go over everyone elses material.

[mormegil]

I have stated elsewhere but I will do so here, there has been a recent influx in my business and I have a promotion to supervisor smith which makes it more difficult to debate things as often.

Now too many of us are willing to write off Malka for ridiculous vote for Aiwendil. Now maybe it's just me but as a wolf I'd be willing to attempt that and look it has given her immune status in the minds of many. I'm not ready to give up on her yet.

I haven't been able to read all yet but I find it interesting that Cailin attacks me, mildly, but still attacks because I haven't mentioned Spawn before. I think I have at one point but I'm not suspicious of her so why mention her? Also there are many others I haven't mentioned. Cailin is seeming to be the most wolfish to me currently and I don't have much time to explain but she's wise and cunning beyond her years and I think she's attempting to steer us to her thoughts and I find this unsettling at this stage.

Kath is still unnerving though I've seen suspicious behavior from her before which was unfounded so I will give her another day or two.

++Cailin

Though Valier recent assertion of her innocence raised my eyebrow a bit and perhaps I may rue not voting for her.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by dancing spawn

Well, could one reason be that they all have posted toDay? It's much easier to talk about people who post than those who remain completely silent (or have posted only once or twice anyway).

Quite possibly so. Although my suspicions of Kath and Garin were originally aroused yesterday.

In any event, it is annoying that more people have not contributed so far today, as I must vote now or not vote at all.

We have three votes cast. One for malkatoj, which pre-dates her initial vote for Aiwendil, and which I suspect few if any will follow (unless they really do think it was a feindish bluff). And (assuming that malkatoj's second vote stands) one each for two of those who are, as matters stand, today's main suspects. In other words, the voting currently stands as follows:

Nilp for malkatoj
malkatoj for Kath
Valier for Garin

Well, I will place my vote for the third of those who have come under particular suspicion today.

++SHELOB

I outlined the reasons for my suspicion of her earlier. To summarise, she seems to be trying to be present without committing herself too much - to be contributing without saying anything useful - which seems out of character to me. And I am somewhat swayed by the fact that others (who I currently have no particular reason to suspect) feel the same way. I elected to vote for Shelob, rather than Kath, Glirdan or Garin (my other main suspects at the moment) because I don't have enough to go on as far as Glirdan is concerned and, assuming that malkatoj's vote for Kath is valid, I think that it remains sensible to keep the voting field as wide as possible. I would counsel those who follow in casting their votes to bear that last point in mind.

Edit: Cross-posted with mormegil.

[Cailín]

Nilp attracted three votes yesterday (his own, Abercrombie's and Naria's).

Ack! I'm sorry. I knew that and yet somehow I typed something completely different. My brains must be um... well... something bad.

Cailin is seeming to be the most wolfish to me currently and I don't have much time to explain but she's wise and cunning beyond her years and I think she's attempting to steer us to her thoughts and I find this unsettling at this stage.

You give me more credit than I deserve, Mormegil. Anyway - I hope that if I survive toDay I may be able to convince you otherwise.

Btw, did you notice, you did it again: you mentioned that you, too, find Shelob suspicious, but then left it at that and started analyzing TGWBS and Garin.

I was going to do Kath and Shelob, but ran out of time. It happens.

[Cailín]

SHELOB

#23

Hopes for a miracle. Says she’ll wait to see how things develop.

#67

Does not understand the votes for Valier. Sees a little reasoning behind voting for Abercrombie, but does not seriously believe her guilty. Garin unsettles her.

#71

Does not wish to vote for Abercrombie nor Valier. Votes Garin.

#91

Thinks Aiwendil’s death was meant to confuse us.

#96

Disagrees with Saucy concerning the triangle thing.

--

It seems the only reason I have for suspecting Shelob is that she is not contributing as much as we’re used to. She has only suspected Garin, a safe suspect if he’s innocent, and was reluctant to be the cause of the death of an innocent yesterDay. Not sure what to make of her, there’s too little evidence.

And Spawn, I'm not doing this because I think you are incapable. I'm doing this because I don't trust you.

[the guy who be short]

Apologies to people who have mentioned my quietness - College, then circumstances.

But, here are some promised analyses:

Death of Abercrombie

1. Formendacil for Valier (Valier-1)
2. Waynethe Goblin for Formendacil (Valier-1; Formendacil-1)
3. Nilpaurion for Nilpaurion (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-1)
4. Valier for WaynetheGoblin (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-1, Wayne-1)
5. AbercrombieofRohan for Nilpaurion (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-1)
6. Cailin for WaynetheGoblin (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2)
7. Mormegil for Valier (Valier-2; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2)
8. Saucepan Man for AbercrombieofRohan (Valier-2; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-1)
9. TGWBS for AbercrombieofRohan (Valier-2; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-2)
10. Garin for Valier (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-2)
11. Spawn for Abercrombie (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-3)
12. Aiwendil for Abercrombie (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-4)
13. Kath for Abercrombie (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-5)
14. Shelob for Garin (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1)
15. Malkatoj for WaynetheGoblin (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1)
16. Glirdan for SpM (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1, SpM-1)
17. Naria for Nilpaurion (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-3, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1, SpM-1)

(Thank you SpM - I stole yours, as it was presented much more prettily.)

What's noticable? The Abercrombie bandwagon started late - and that's odd. SpM was the first to vote for her, and there seemed little chance of her being lynched then. A "safe" vote, but I don't think this incriminating, partially because I'm inclined to trust SpM, and partly because, with voting so spread out, almost all votes could be considered "safe" early on.

The second vote was from me, bringing Abercrombie up to two votes - the highest the other candidates had at the time too. This, also, I don't consider "safe" - if anything, I consider it the opposite, as it brought Abercrombie into the list of potentially lynchable people.

Spawn was the next to vote. I'm not sure what to make of her. This was when Valier also had three votes, again tying. Without knowing Valier's identity, we can't infer anything.

Aiwendil voted next - and died in the night. I'm not sure what to make of this - hopefully I will have time for an analysis of Aiwendil's words and potential reasons he was killed, but that will be next post, if at all. What relevance it has here, I'm not sure.

Finally, Kath's vote for Abercrombie. Not wolvish at all. Just look at the numbers involved when she voted - it was an incriminating, non-wolf thing to do.

So, I must say, I feel that all those voting for Abercrombie were innocent. This is not only because I was in the group - it seemed like a rational thing to do, at the time, and while I regret her innocence, I believed it to be logical.

There are claims that Aiwendil's death may have been calculated to take the spotlight off those who voted for him. I don't support this - I think it put more emphasis and more mystery around those voting for Abercrombie.
But then, perhaps I simply feel so as I am in that group of voters...

As for who I feel could be guilty, that comes...

[the guy who be short]

Looking at the voting record (above) several names stand out. These are the seriously "safe" votes, votes unlikely to affect the outcome, apathetic votes that show little interest in divining innocence. In short, condemnable votes.

In order, then:

14. Shelob for Garin (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1)
16. Glirdan for SpM (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1, SpM-1)
17. Naria for Nilpaurion (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-3, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1, SpM-1)

These are the real no votes. Shelob bringing Garin into play - fair enough if you don't believe Valier or Abercrombie to be guilty, but what about Nilp, Wayne, Formen? No feelings?

Glirdan for SpM - the same applies!

Naria for Nilp - idiocy. Voting for Nilp was not only pointless, it was detrimental to the village. There is no reason to vote for him in normal circumstances.

I would gladly vote for any of the three, but as it is, time runs short.


At present we have a vote for malka, a vote for Kath, a vote for Garin, a vore for Cailin and a vote for Shelob.

Though I suspect Shelob too, I think I'll go for Naria to give a wide range of possibilities for those still to vote, making it harder for wolves to hide. And I did warn those who vote for Nilp... (About that by the way - intuition, nothing more, Nilp. You're just a nutter who likes dying, and I get annoyed when people help you - it isn't good for the village. If you actually are a wolf, I'll faint).

++NARIA

[the guy who be short]

I don't have time to analyse Aiwendil, sorry. I started, but found little info either way.

Vote wisely, and, most likely, farewell until the morrow.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Well, well, Wayne, Naria and Formendacil haven't come to talk with us toDay at all, and Gil and Glirdan have posted only once.

The votes are:

Nilp -> malkatoj
malkatoj -> Kath
Valier -> Garin
mormegil -> Cailín
Sauce -> Shelob
TGWBS -> Naria

Originally Posted by SpM

I think that it remains sensible to keep the voting field as wide as possible.

I agree. However, now we have six lynching candidates and all of my suspects already are on the list. There's no reason for me to randomly add someone completely different on the list, and I can't wait any longer with my vote. Therefore:

++SHELOB

Best of luck to you, dear innocents!

[Formendacil]

You're naught but ninnyhammers, the lot of you!

Seriously, I don't hold with all this lynchermongery that's going on around here... I see nary a sane plan in sight, and certainly none that wears well enough to attract my agreement. Clearly, though, we're going to need some rope...

I suggest you all go back to cabbages and potatoes. Don't get mixed up in the business of your betters, or you'll land in trouble too big for you.

No, I can't give no insight. Haven't thought so far, myself; you're all queer folk, though. No, I can't rouse the energy and do it. Good night!

++ The Saucepan Man, for trying to take control.

All's well that ends better.

[mormegil]

Formendacil is appearing strangely cobbleresque. Doesn't make him a wolf but it does make him somebody we ought to eliminate if we don't know who else to vote for.

Now while I still suspect Cailin she did bring up some good points in her analysis of TGWBS but then TGWBS brought up decent points about Naria. So I guess what I'm saying is that while I'm confused it's likely that a wolf is in this small group of three.

[Márcolië Lamen]

Because I may have little time, I'm going to start by listing those I seem most guilty and general reasons. If I end up with time I'll go through either post by post or at least analysing and quoting specific things. I hope I have the time to do that.

Villagers
Cailín-seems to be the one who's steering others thoughts most noticably now along with SpM, which is a very wolvish thing to do. However, because it is so early in the game, this is either a much safer, or much more dangerous position to be in if a wolf. I suspect Calin but she's not currently my top suspicion because it's almost too bold at this point to me, depending on the group.
Nilpaurion Felagund A suicidal one is always odd. Don't know anything about Nilp now. Suspicious only for living.
The Saucepan Man is one who is suspicious because of the strength at playing. I really don't know now at all how to look at SpM
Malkatoj...that was one strange vote. I doubt it was a wolvish bluff, mainly because its so out there. We can't just forget about it, but I'm more reclined to focus efforts elseware.
Gil-Galad has given little to workwith like always. Toss of the dice as to where he stands. I really don't know.
Glirdan in my mind someone being used to change where we're looking from last night. I don't think Glirdan is guilty, because of that.
Marcolie Lamen What can I say about myself? I wasn't here yesterday, and haven't said much, because of time constrants on my part, and its not like I'd look at myself as guilty.
WaynetheGoblin similarly to Gil-Galad someone who says very little and gives us nothing to go by. The first posts were uncharactaristically long though. I'd personally vote for Wayne over Gil-Galad because of this.
Naria collecting votes. I would agree that Naria looks suspicous at the time, because of voting yesterday, and quietness.
Valier in a similar position to Naria. They're so quiet they'd not tell us very much. Three votes for her yesterday.
Formendacil has been quiet but gave reasons. Not suspicious for this, so low on my suspision list.
Kath- an active name today early on, but recently dying down. Kath isn't the highest on my suspision, but can't be trusted either.
Shelob uncharacteristically quiet, in terms of giving little information. I cannot analyze and take out suspision on Shelob because in attempting to I'd alter how I was thinking. I'm too trusting of her to play werewolf against her. I'll read and comment on other peoples examinations, but I cannot make my own. Explaining this mainly because its a strange situation.
TGWBS has been vocal, but not overly so. Was looking at so-called throw away votes recently, which has a point, but which its hard for me to agree on after one day. Suspicious because seems to be in a very easily hid position.
Garin ever since I started reading this something hasn't sat right with me on Garin. I don't know exactly why, but because of this Garin has top suspicousness in my mind. However, looking at yesterday and those he'd vote for makes him even more suspicious. He talks about three and votes for one though not seeminly for a reason. I would probably be less suspicious of Garin if the vote had been for me. Also seems very easily swayable by SpM and morm
Dancing Spawn has been a very helpful poster with summaries. Not too guilty at the moment, but in a position where it'd be really easy to switch over.
Mormegil- Its scary to have Morm and SpM agreeing. Its like something has to be up. I seriously doubt both of them are wolves though.

If I was to vote now it'd be for Garin, but I have time, so lets see what happens between now and then.

[Cailín]

Nilp -> malkatoj
malkatoj -> Kath
Valier -> Garin
mormegil -> Cailín
Sauce -> Shelob
TGWBS -> Naria
Spawn -> Shelob
Formendacil -> Saucepan Man

Well, Formendacil is acting strange.

++GARIN

He remains my main suspect of the Day. For reasons, see my analysis on him. It's here somewhere.

Edit: cross-posted with Marcolie.

[the guy who be short]

Wow! Internet time! Look at that!

I don't know how long I can stay here - maximum of 40 minutes, minimum of 0. However, in that time, morm:

Now while I still suspect Cailin she did bring up some good points in her analysis of TGWBS

I'm curious what you inferred from Cailin's points, when she said they spoke in my innocence.

Lastly, I will reiterate. It is too late today, but tomorrow, perhaps, we can implement this.

People should voice suspicions during the first part of the day. Then, groups of four people should be set to analyse each one of these suspects so that we get an expansive view from many eyes, and minimise wolvish influence in presenting facts. I advise sorting people into groups alphabetically, there are too many factors that could go wrong if people choose their own groups...

Finally, we have a lot of loud people in the spotlight. It is unwise to let the loud dominate the scene and be picked off one by one, leaving no analytic minds left. Tomorrow, we must consider at least one of those who are "slipping under the radar" or simply not posting.

[Garin]

Well, I either talk to much or too little it is less a strategy than a return to work ethic. My boss mentioned 'the downs' specifically by name after the last game so I am devoting less time to this dangerous little addiction. I honestly have no idea who to vote for and no one has really swayed me. I might still stick to Valier, some good points have been mad about Shelob, Cailin seems a little mean for an innocent villager, and Form's recent snit seemed quite odd.

[Kath]

Well, I’m back.

So much has gone on toDAy already, I feel overwhelmed just trying to work out where to begin! But, we have votes, so I’ll look at who has been voted for, try to work out why, and see if I too think they look suspicious.

Malkatoj - voted for by a now sane seeming Nilp – though his vote was no more than a decision between 3, and the possibility that they were trying to cause ties or make ‘safe’ votes. There seems no real evidence of anything here. Malka defended her vote for Wayne reasonably, and looked both at those who were involved in the Crombie bandwagon and Shelob alone (though I’m not sure why she was singled out so). But then came that odd vote for Aiwendil! If anything were to make me suspect her it would be that, rather than her later vote for me.

Kath - by malka, perhaps in all seriousness, though perhaps just trying to make up for her previous mistake. If it is because I was involved in the Crombie bandwagon then fair enough.

Garin - by Valier for his ‘posting pattern’, and being unsure whether he is a wolf or not. Cailin due to his sucking up to the loudmouths and clever ones, and for his odd voting yesterday.

Cailín - by morm due to her pushing him to mention spawn when he does not find her suspicious, and also because she seems ‘wise and cunning beyond her years’ – perhaps she is just a precocious young ‘un

Shelob - by spawn due to her knowledge of why Aiwendil was killed in the Night, and because she defended the trio thought up yesterday. Sauce suspects her due to strangely little analysis and a ‘safe’ vote, feels she is saying lots but revealing little.

Naria - by TGWBS due to her ‘idiotic’ vote for Nilp, whom he considers innocent, and also to widen the voting field.

SpM - by Form for trying to take control. Now that’s a fair point right enough and one that I happen to agree with, but I’m not sure Sauce can do anything but! I don’t, however, think him suspicious. I dislike the taking charge, but I see nothing wolvish in it.

Now, my time here is up and I do have to go. Looking at this I would say the person who has voted with the least reason is Valier, and because of that:

++VALIER

[malkatoj]

Malkatoj, did you really vote for Aiwendil without realising that he was already dead, or did you type his name mistakenly, meaning to vote for someone else? It's an important distinction.

Typed the wrong name there, Mr. Saucepan. It rivals forgetting which side of my car my gas tank is on for the dumbest thing I've done today. I should sleep at night. The name 'Aiwendil' was dancing around in my head (something to do with suspicious vote, but he's dead so it didn't matter) and Kath came out Aiwendil.

Formendacil is acting kind of strange, but I don't see any wolfishness, just strangeness.

I'm inclined to trust Mormegil, also. His reasoning makes him seem innocent enough.

Since, right now, it looks like Shelob'll be lynched...well, she seems wolfish enough. But I do have a message from her: she's trapped in school and won't be able to post again today. She wanted me to mention this earlier but I was too busy realizing what I had just posted, so I forgot.

Kath, my vote for you was from the Crombie bandwagon. I meant to in the first place, as I explained earlier here.

[Shelob]

Not quite true Malka, but thanks for finally mentioning my trappedness. In my defense, and to that point, I will not check barrowdowns in school, I feel realy bad when I do and (If I'm caught) I get yelled at. Since My Personal school day starts at around 6 (when I wake up) and ends at 4 I'm stuck.

Given then that I've only had a brief chance to read things I'll address all accusations towards me tomorrow (if I live) and, since I don't really want to die. Vote

++Cailin

it's the best that I can do and I do appologise.

(though to be fair Suace, the only other times I've added information to the conversations I've actually had information...and time...ah, time...what I wouldn't give for some of that...)

[Garin]

I promise to serve the village better but beg you to understand my dilemna. It will go with Shelob with this vote.
++Shelob
Sorry, dear but better you than me/

[Meneltarmacil]

It had been decided that Shelob would be lynched toDay. The villagers gathered around the gallows as she was brought forward.

"But I don't even know most of you!" she protested. "I just happened to wash up here!"

"That's no excuse, Shelob," Saucepan countered. "Your arrival was followed closely by the first attack. That makes you our primary suspect."

"No it doesn't!" Nilpaurion Felagund blurted, climbing up to the gallows. "I'm a Wolf! I admit it! Lynch me!"

Nobody paid him any attention, shoving him aside. Instead, they hauled Shelob up to the gallows and put the noose around her neck.

However, when mormegil pulled the lever and dropped the trapdoor, causing Shelob to fall, there was no transformation as she died.

"Uh-oh," said morm, realizing the mistake. "Looks like she was innocent."


Living:
mormegil- Elven smith
Garin- Truffle hunter with a half a dozen pigs and no social manners
Nilpaurion Felagund- Escaped thrall from Tol-in-Gaurhoth
dancing spawn of ungoliant- Florist
The Saucepan Man- Earnest and learned young man of the law
malkatoj- Retired Miracle Man (who is not really a man)
Gil-Galad- Shape-Analyst
Glirdan- Crazy guy down the street
Márcolië Lamen- Second official 8th day adventist Pastafarian
Formendacil- Village historian
Cailín- Deluded girl who believes she is a mermaid
Kath- Local investigator into the paranormal
the guy who be short- Mermaid-catcher and fisherman
WaynetheGoblin- Town geek, wimp, and nerd
Naria- Crazy old lady that thinks the marine life talks to her
Valier- Overly giggly coconut milker who only milks the coconuts while standing on her head

Dead:
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Speared by wolves on Night 1
AbercrombieOfRohan (Ordinary Villager): Treed and crushed by villagers on Day 1
Aiwendil (Ordinary Villager): Crushed by a tree chopped down by the werewolves onto his house.
Shelob (Ordinary Villager): Hung by villagers on Day 2

Wolves: 3
Villagers: 13

It is now Night 3. Villagers, cease posting. Wolves may PM, Hunter and Ranger may not. I need names from the Wolves, Hunter, Ranger, and Seer.

By the way, I did count malka's vote for Kath.

[Meneltarmacil]

It was not long after the villagers had woken up that they noticed it.

A large pile of coconuts had appeared in the center of town overnight. Perplexed as to how it got there, the villagers discussed this recent phenomenon.

“Notice the interesting pyramidal shape of it?” Gil-Galad offered.

“It came from beyond the grave!” Kath exclaimed.

“”Don’t be silly, the Flying Spaghetti Monster clearly dropped it there,” Márcolië Lamen countered.

“The whales told me it was a gift from them,” said Naria.

Garin’s pigs, however, had already dug through the coconuts to find the body of poor Valier, who had giggled her last and had died standing on her head as the Wolves had tossed coconuts at her. All speculations stopped, as this was clearly the work of Wolves. Another innocent was dead.

Formendacil wrote all this down as usual, while malkatoj started searching the body for money.

Living:
mormegil- Elven smith
Garin- Truffle hunter with a half a dozen pigs and no social manners
Nilpaurion Felagund- Escaped thrall from Tol-in-Gaurhoth
dancing spawn of ungoliant- Florist
The Saucepan Man- Earnest and learned young man of the law
malkatoj- Retired Miracle Man (who is not really a man)
Gil-Galad- Shape-Analyst
Glirdan- Crazy guy down the street
Márcolië Lamen- Second official 8th day adventist Pastafarian
Formendacil- Village historian
Cailín- Deluded girl who believes she is a mermaid
Kath- Local investigator into the paranormal
the guy who be short- Mermaid-catcher and fisherman
WaynetheGoblin- Town geek, wimp, and nerd
Naria- Crazy old lady that thinks the marine life talks to her

Dead:
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Speared by wolves on Night 1
AbercrombieOfRohan (Ordinary Villager): Treed and crushed by villagers on Day 1
Aiwendil (Ordinary Villager): Crushed by a tree chopped down by the werewolves onto his house on Night 2
Shelob (Ordinary Villager): Hung by villagers on Day 2
Valier (Ordinary Villager): Coconutted by wolves on Night 3

Wolves: 3
Villagers: 12

It is now Day 3. Villagers may post. Wolves, please cease PMing. Hunter and Ranger may PM each other now.

[the guy who be short]

Vote for / Vote by / Votes after (inclusive)
1. Malkatoj - Nilp (Malkatoj - 1)
2. Kath - malkatoj (Malkatoj - 1; Kath - 1)
3. Garin - Valier (Malkatoj - 1; Kath - 1; Garin - 1)
4. Cailin - mormegil (Malkatoj - 1; Kath - 1; Garin - 1; Cailin - 1)
5. Shelob - SpM (Malkatoj - 1; Kath - 1; Garin - 1; Cailin - 1; Shelob - 1)
6. Naria - TGWBS (Malkatoj - 1; Kath - 1; Garin - 1; Cailin - 1; Shelob - 1; Naria - 1)
7. Shelob - spawn (Malkatoj - 1; Kath - 1; Garin - 1; Cailin - 1; Shelob - 2; Naria - 1)
8. SpM - Formen (Malkatoj - 1; Kath - 1; Garin - 1; Cailin - 1; Shelob - 2; Naria - 1; SpM - 1)
9. Garin - Cailin (Malkatoj - 1; Kath - 1; Garin - 2; Cailin - 1; Shelob - 2; Naria - 1; SpM - 1)
10. Valier - Kath (Malkatoj - 1; Kath - 1; Garin - 2; Cailin - 1; Shelob - 2; Naria - 1; SpM - 1; Valier - 1)
11. Cailin - Shelob (Malkatoj - 1; Kath - 1; Garin - 2; Cailin - 2; Shelob - 2; Naria - 1; SpM - 1; Valier - 1)
12. Shelob - Garin (Malkatoj - 1; Kath - 1; Garin - 2; Cailin - 2; Shelob - 3; Naria - 1; SpM - 1; Valier - 1)

Did not vote Gil Galad, Glirdan, Marcolie Lamen, wayne, Naria



Analyses later. First, a few points.

Firstly, I would like to point out the huge number of non-voters. I, for one, would be more than pleased to kill them off if they don't start talking. As I said yesterday, we threaten to turn this into a battle of the loud and overlook those who are silent.

Secondly, I await a reply from mormegil re:Cailin.

Originally Posted by TGWBS

I'm curious what you inferred from Cailin's points, when she said they spoke in my innocence.

Okay, two points then.

Coming soon, my thoughts on the lynching of Shelob and the death of Valier, as soon as I can organise some.

[Cailín]

Wow, Valier died. That is certainly… unexpected. She was not without suspicion and did not seem as much as a threat as some. I shall miss the silly (coco)nut, though.

Shall I point out something funny? Cailín voted exactly the same as Valier did for two days in a row. Valier more or less trusted her and she seemed to trust Valier. Could this kill possibly have been made to make her look good? Wait – is this a case against myself?

Or – was perhaps Valier targetted as the Seer? I can see no other clear reason: surely by the third Night, the wolves usually go looking for the Seer. That would put Garin in a rather negative light. Actually, he would stay in a rather negative light.

As of yet, I do not know. Five people failed to show up for voting yesterDay. It was a close call between me, Shelob and Garin. Two of these are definitely innocent. Both Mormegil and Saucepan Man are still alive. So is Spawn. This is both good as well as highly disturbing. Either they are wolves or they are completely in the wrong. Both is pretty bad. On first sight, we seem to be no closer to finding a wolf. Or at least, I am not.

Then I have some sad, real life news. Within half an hour, I’m going to bed. I will have to get up very early and spend the entire day fighting big guys with wooden swords. Yes, this is indeed true. I will not be able to return till about two hours before the deadline. I’m dreadfully sorry, but these things are practically obligatory and also quite a fun way to get extra credits. I hope you’ll manage without me. I’m sure you will.

[Formendacil]

Okay, first of all, I'd like to commend, thank, and generally praise the Werewolves for not killing me.

Secondly, I'd like to insult them for killing an innocent Valier. I'd also like to insult the village for killing an innocent Shelob and Abercrombie.

Thirdly, I'd like to direct today's attention, discussion, and lynching towards a candidate who is a Werewolf.

Thank you, and good day.

I shall be back in about 21 hours.

[Glirdan]

Well, this is an unexpected turn of events. Definetly wasn't looked for. But it was probably the best choice for the Wolves.

*I must answer a few questions that will be definetly asked. I did not vote yesterday due to time zone difficulties. I did not have computer access all night (as will probably happen again for the next few days) and I have school which takes six hours out of my time. So, I'm sorry for my abscence and non vote.*

Now, I must adress a certain little thing that intrigued me when I went through the posts. I notice how SpM was after me a lot yesterday and knew perfectly well that I might not return in order to defend myself. What the strange thing is that he suddenly drops off that attack later on. I find this quite strange. Not to mention, if I'm correct, he was the first to voice suspicion for Shelob. He is really making me suspicious and uneasy.

I will have to go back thoroughly over everything that has been said. I will (try!!) and come back later with my conclusions.

*If I'm not back on again, it's because I got kicked off.*

[Cailín]

By the way, I would like to get an explanation from Garin for his last moment decision. As I said after analysing Shelob myself, I could not really build a case against her. The case against me was somewhat stronger. I'll be honest and tell you I was hoping someone (Marcolie) was going to show up and vote for you still.

Dancing Spawn and Saucepan Man... twice you now voted for the innocent who was lynched at the end of the Day. This is no accusation - more people have voted for two innocents and indeed it is more subtle to not be on the 'winning' bandwagon. However, like me probably, you have a tendency to be in full control of the game. These outcomes show that. I hope you are aware that, if things go the wrong way, people will start blaming you. And I hope these people are aware that they will. This is really just a plea for people to make up their own minds.

Also - I very much wish to know why so many people failed to vote. I've never seen anything like it. Is there a policy - like in WWXII - that you are automatically lynched if you have failed to show up for voting a few times? Because TGWBS is right - all these non-participants are only in the way right now.

I'm still in favour of lynching Garin right now. I am not sure whether I appreciated his 'better you than me'. I'm not ready to let my suspicions go.

Edit: crossposted with Glirdy.

[the guy who be short]

Right off the bat, I'll attack Naria and Glirdan for their no votes on Day 1. I haven't let that go yet. I did also suspect Shelob for the same reasons, and she turned out to be innocent, but I can't get over it.

I'll also defend Nilp - he's Nilp, after all, it's tradition - and malkatoj because of the misvote - I don't see a wolf doing that. There are others I had faith in before, but I will need to reconsider in light of voting patterns.

I think I will mention Kath. After Day 1, I believed in her innocence due to her voting for Abercrombie last. Yesterday, she was the only one to vote for Valier. Unless she's being incredibly bold, I don't think she's a wolf. Why kill somebody you voted for in the Day?

Interestingly, spawn, SpM, Kath and Garin have all voted for innocents twice. I'm not sure how telling this is, as I'm inclined to suspect none of the above, really. Perhaps I shall have to look into all of them individually. I went through Valier's posts, and she doesn't really mention anybody but Garin. As Cailin says, this makes him look bad, but it could easily be a bluff, or double bluff.

And now, I make a fool of myself, spending so much time dissecting the words of the loud and glancing not at the silent. I am confident that a wolf, perhaps two, abides amongst those who are silent or quiet: Gil-Galad, Marcolie, Glirdan, Form, Wayne and Naria. Form's behaviour is suspect, Glirdan's day one vote is incriminating, as is Naria's, and simple silence from wayne and quietness from Marcolie put me off. Unless something startling emerges, I will look into these six today. I definitely want them to start talking more.

[the guy who be short]

For clarification, "no votes" above refers to votes that would and did not affect the outcome, not lack of votes.

I am pleased to see Glirdan, at least, return. I'd also like him to reply to my accusation about his Day 1 vote for SpM - a complete waste.

That said, Glirdan and Cailin, you have both raised interesting points about SpM. Twice in a row, he has cast the first vote for an innocent. Perhaps he is simply cursed with too much authority - people follow him too much, and the votes he casts influence others too much, incriminating him. I recall that his Abercrombie vote was particularly late.

[Glirdan]

Glirdan's day one vote is incriminating

I shall adress this matter rigfht now. As I said (if you go back and look at the post), I said my vote for SpM was so that I would not be bandwaggoning and so that I would not have to create a double lynch. I was suspicious of Valier, but I did not want to be the cause of two (now proven) innocents dying. I also voiced my suspicion of Saucy (which has not aabbated) the whole long of that day. Now, if I were a Wolf, why on earth would I suspect Valier all the Day, and then go after her at Night knowing full well that the entire village knew that I had suspected her?

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

I said my vote for SpM was so that I would not be bandwaggoning and so that I would not have to create a double lynch.

At the time of your vote, you would not cause a tie - Abercrombie had 5 votes, and Valier and Wayne three each. That argument holds no water.

I was suspicious of Valier, but I did not want to be the cause of two (now proven) innocents dying.

It seems that you're saying you already knew Valier and Abercrombie were innocent. While I appreciate that's probably not what you mean, I advise you to guard you words more carefully.

I suspect[ed] Valier all the Day

What gets me is you suspect Valier - but don't vote for her when there's a chance to get her.

Now, if I were a Wolf, why on earth would I suspect Valier all the Day, and then go after her at Night knowing full well that the entire village knew that I had suspected her?

And you have just called attention to the fact...

[Glirdan]

At the time of your vote, you would not cause a tie - Abercrombie had 5 votes, and Valier and Wayne three each. That argument holds no water.

Yes, I'm now aware of that. I meant that for earlier. Bascially, my vote was to not bandwagon and because I still found that there was something not sitting right with me for Saucy.

What gets me is you suspect Valier - but don't vote for her when there's a chance to get her.

I miscounted the votes when I voted. So, I was thinking, at the time, that if I voted for Valier, there would be a possible double lynch and I did not want to be the cause of that.

And you have just called attention to the fact...

Yes, I am quite aware of that. Purposely done as well. In my defence, if I were a Wolf, I would not be as stupid to attack someone whom I suspected. That would leave to many clues pointing towards me.

[WaynetheGoblin]

Sorry for not posting for a long time but im starting of with my vote.
++WAYNETHEGOBLIN

[Gil-Galad]

bah i always have the worst timing, i feel so bad for not voting the last 2 days, been busy with school and such, and i probably won't get another time so i'll give Wayne's death wish and vote for him


++WAYNETHEGOBLIN

[the guy who be short]

How... utterly... bizarre...

If I were still fully awake, I would analyse the bejeezus out of that.

I shall return in at least 14 hours, at most 17.

[Glirdan]

Well, I must agree with TGWBS on this. Thosee two votes are the most bizzare votes that I have ever seen. But, does it prove innocence? Or does it prove guilt? I'm leaning towards innocence for one of them, maybe both. I highly doubt that both of them would be as quiet as they have been and both be either Wolf or Gifted.

However, Wayne could be a Wolf who is trying to pull a Nilp and be suicidal and make it seem as if he's innocent. Or he could just be an Ordo who's had enough of this nonesense.

I can't make hide nor tail of Gil's vote however. I think it's just him voting so he can say that he's voted.

I really don't know what else to think of these two very peculiar posts.