Tol-in-Gaurhoth XV-The Villagers Strike Back!

[Nonnacedak]

First off I want to state that I obviously agree with the theory that at least one Hero was in each of the bandwagons. Since I can only vote for one person and there were less people in my pool of accusers I shall vote for either Spawn or Boromir. Kitanna was the first person to vote for me but I think a Hero would jump in the wagon a bit later than try to start one.

Also Gurthang was actually the person to first accuse me randomly but then when it comes time to vote he does something even more random and votes for Rune. This doesn't really prove anything it just strikes me as odd.

None of this is hard evidence but its all I have to go on. Hopefully things will be even more clear by the end of the night.

[Nonnacedak]

One more thing just to clear up. I am a Male-Wolf and NOT a Female.

[Kath]

Wayne appears to be repeating the same comments as have gone by already. I think I was asked to explain my lack of voting - the reason is on the discussion thread but to reiterate I was confused about what time Night ended.

Anyhow, morm your reply wasn't half snappy! And still I don't understand your reasoning. Sauce cannot have known who anyone was so how does his vote for Nonna put him/her in the clear?

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Kath

Anyhow, morm your reply wasn't half snappy! And still I don't understand your reasoning. Sauce cannot have known who anyone was so how does his vote for Nonna put him/her in the clear?

Have I ever once said that Nonna is in the clear? NO! I have said that I believe him innocent and obviously SpM did too, otherwise it's not likely he would have voted for somebody he thought to be a trecherous Elf. Now what does this mean? SpM and I as well as many others found Nonna's post rather innocuous and people jumped all over it. That is what I find suspicious my dear runt, is that he accrued four votes over something I don't view as particularly suspicious. I'm not giving him a free ticket. I think Farael is most likely innocent as well as Mith among others but have I said that I know they are? NO! Now get back in your place before I chew you leg off.

Now I need a bit of rest, all this discussion has made me this old wolf a bit tired.

[Meneltarmacil]

In analyzing who Hero #1, the one riding the Glirdan bandwagon, is, I find Oddwen to be a possibility. She posts every now and then to show us that she's here, yet offers very little analysis in her posts, intead acting completely crazy and tossing out silly reasons to vote for people. She then joins a rapidly-moving bandwagon, trying to cover it up by saying "Haha, I'm bandwagoning," implying that she's not, in an attempt to throw us off.

A secondary suspect is mormegil due to the fact that he put Glirdan in the lead by casting a second vote. However, since the competition consisted of an Ordinary Wolf (yours truly) and HuanPan Man, whose identity definitely was not known by the Heroes at the time (otherwise they wouldn't have killed him), this doesn't say much.

Farael is yet another possibility, as he has been quite silent and offers little.
As for Wayne, same thing though my theory presumes that he is innocent. However, he may not be

I can probably eliminate morm for reasons stated above. Farael and Wayne are pretty much unknowns. Oddwen, however, could certainly offer more than she has thus far. I will keep a close eye on her from now on, as she has become my primary suspect for Hero#1.

To sum up my findings:
Hero#1: Oddwen
Hero#2: Boromir88, or possibly dancing spawn of ungoliant
Hero#3: Rune son of Bjarne

EDIT: Changed "eaten" to "killed," cross-posted with morm

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Huan is gone that is great. I must say that I am not suprissed it was saucepan, I allways thought he smelled of wet dog. . .

Originally Posted by menel

Hero #3 could be anyone who didn't vote for either. If this is indeed the case, I'd suggest Rune. He very well could have gotten away with suspecting Wayne, as there is, as previously mentioned, the "let's-get-Wayne-because-he's-too-quiet" line of reasoning. Since the Nonna bandwagon wasn't rolling yet, Rune may have been attempting to start a Wayne bandwagon off of Lhuna's original vote for him.

Good theory Menel and of course I can not prove that this was not my entention, but I will try explain anyway.

Why I votet Wayne:

I did not think he was Heroe or Huan and I was right. He made some slips, but that is what happens when you try to find Heroes. Sometimes you have to put your own throat on the line in and then you make mistakes.

You are right I did found it a safe vote, I did so for several reasons. If wayne turned out to be a wolf it would be no great loss, It was not so much because of the non talking part I votet for him more that he is unpredictable.

So why did I not vote for my other suspects? I wantet too see what they are all about, I allready knew what kind of wold wayne was the young one i do not.

I never thought about if it would start a bandwagoning, but I certenly did not want to jump on one so early on.

Enough about me, I will return soon with my thoughts on you beasts.

[Gurthang]

Well, I can see we have some misconceptions about bandwagons. I am going to try to sort it out a little, since some, namely Menel, are basing a few suspicions wholly on bandwagons.

First of all, the first person to vote for someone is not the starter of the bandwagon. If that is the case, then everyone who voted for someone new was a bandwagon starter, and there are quite a few of us. I would not even call something a bandwagon unless it had at least three votes. Therefore, I would say that the bandwagon starter would be second or, more likely, third to vote for someone.

And Farael has disregarded everyone who voted for Glirdan because he was suspicious and the heros would have left him. I don't think so, if he looked gone, they might as well jump on the wagon and vote for him. And especially the first few would not know he would get all of the votes he did, so they could have very well been a wolf hoping to vote for that suspicious person. I'd also point out that a vote for someone suspicious like Glirdan is a very safe vote for a hero, in that it doesn't make them look guilty when he's proven innocent. Keeping these things in mind, you, Farael, are looking suspicious.

Yet at the same time you are talking sense. I agree that there is likely a hero in those who voted for Nonnacedak, so it would make sense to pick one out of there. That does not mean I intend to get all of them killed! There is a good chance that there is an elf in that pack, but I'm not sure I want to kill all of them to find out.

Or on second thought, maybe we should just kill all three to make sure. After all Death is part of my name!

Anywho, mormegil, Kitanna, and Kath have ignored my earlier post. They remain on the list, though Kitanna is probably slightly higher due to Farael's idea. Although, Farael also posted a list that just happened to be the opposite of his own vote. Therefore, by all fairness, he is suspicious for that just like morm and Kitanna are. Added to the reasoning above (third paragraph) he is just behind Kitanna.

[Boromir88]

First off I want to state that I obviously agree with the theory that at least one Hero was in each of the bandwagons. Since I can only vote for one person and there were less people in my pool of accusers I shall vote for either Spawn or Boromir. Kitanna was the first person to vote for me but I think a Hero would jump in the wagon a bit later than try to start one.

I think this is reasonable as I've already stated, but right now I'm focusing on One hero, in my thinking we need one hero at a time here. So, mathematics tell us with 3 heroes amongst 16 people someone voted for Glirdan. Also, I have a strong feeling with the bandwagoning votes someone voted for Glirdan.

My heart tells me it's reasonable to assume that someone voted for you, and if anyone would be a bandwagoning hero. However, don't try to pass off my vote for you as a bandwagon, for it was no bandwagon against you, I announced clear suspicion of you, I made it pretty clear I was going to vote for you. If anyone did any bandwagoning it would be Spawn or Kitanna.

Now apparently mormegil thinks my vote for Nonnacedak wasn't a bandwagon, and just me jumping to find an excuse to vote for him, and one that is weak at that. That also I find reasonable to assume, and I will say my "excuse" for voting for Nonnacedak wasn't very strong, but what else are we to go on Day 1? Until someone changes my mind, or a good little hero steps out and claims himself I'm still sticking with Nonnacedak as my votee.

I am very weary about mormegil. I'm actually rather split, while I have announced strong suspisions on him, I can not yet be sure of him. Though he be a crabby-"wolf" I give it to him that he's a wise and smart wolf. It would be bad for us to lose him if he truly is innocent, and see, since I am not sure on him, I can't pull the trigger, or should I say sharpen my claws and teeth? Because, if he is an innocent it would be a great loss to the pack. The reason, right now, I find it trouble to vote for him, is I just can't see a hero taking a lead and so strongly announcing and explaining his suspects. Because, knowing that he could be wrong (and in his suspiciouns against me he is wrong), this would put him in a lot of danger and under a lot of light. So, as of right now, I'm unsure of mormegil, though he be one of my stronger suspects I most likely WILL NOT vote for him today. For now, I can hold off on mormegil, until I get to view a bit of him more, and see whether he is getting us off our duty, or helping us find these heroes.

[Farael]

Well Gurthang I posted a list opposite to my own vote because... oh, right I VOTED THE WRONG WOLF. I think that Glirdan was being too favorable for the wolves for them to vote him off. Let's face it, if he had not been killed, the mighty Cacharot (whom I've heard is among us) would have chosen him as his victim, Sauron would have searched for his true role in his dreams.... that's just too convenient for the wolves, now they both know that Glirdan was not it so they must have chosen someone else. You can say I'm wrong, and I'll take that... but I'm not going to take any accusations, specially from a stinking wolf! If you had half the intelect we man have, you would know better than accuse me. Look around you, this is what the Heroes are aiming at.

Right now I have my eyes set on dancing spawn of ungoliant. There's something wrong about her.

Gurthang you should learn from Boromir and Morgmegil.... they have stopped suspecting me because I'm a man in a wolf town... or are they framing me? no, I'm being paranoid here...

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by Farael

Well Gurthang I posted a list opposite to my own vote because... oh, right I VOTED THE WRONG WOLF. I think that Glirdan was being too favorable for the wolves for them to vote him off. Let's face it, if he had not been killed, the mighty Cacharot (whom I've heard is among us) would have chosen him as his victim, Sauron would have searched for his true role in his dreams.... that's just too convenient for the wolves, now they both know that Glirdan was not it so they must have chosen someone else. You can say I'm wrong, and I'll take that... but I'm not going to take any accusations, specially from a stinking wolf! If you had half the intelect we man have, you would know better than accuse me. Look around you, this is what the Heroes are aiming at.

Right now I have my eyes set on dancing spawn of ungoliant. There's something wrong about her.

Gurthang you should learn from Boromir and Morgmegil.... they have stopped suspecting me because I'm a man in a wolf town... or are they framing me? no, I'm being paranoid here...

My, my, my... a bit touchy are we my little wolf-in-denial. I must say that I am pretty certain you are wrong in this and I believe at least one hero voted for Glirdan, despite his suspiciousness. In fact, I'm not so sure you aren't the hero I'm speaking of.

Kitanna has not been around for a while. My suspicion of her is not high as is, and it won't take much to persuade me otherwise. So don't be too surprised if you end up with my vote, Farael.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Farael's theory got me thinking and it seems very likely that the heroes would act in such a way. Surely they would know that joining a bandwagoning would be looked upon with scepcis and therefor chose to vote for another wolf. Unfortunatley we kind of have to bandwagons, so the only way the theory works is if the heroes votet as some of the first and therefor did not know it was going to be a bandwagon. . . If this is the case then they could just as well have been voting for Glirdan.

Conclution: either the theory fails or all of the Heroes is among us who did not vote for Glirdan or Noona.

But I think you have a point. We should not take it for grantet that the heroes would join a bandwagon. Of course you could just be a heroe trying to remove atention frome your friends. . .


EDIT: Cross postet with Gurthang

[Farael]

Everyone could be a Heroe, Rune, and that's what the three heroes among us are playing with.

Now Gurthang, you can blame me of being jumpy, but would you not be if you good willingly tried to help and got suspected upon because of that? I don't want to feud with you right now as you are not my top suspect, but if you keep acusing this innocent man I'll have to start suspecting that you know I'm innocent and you are trying to make me look guilty. But the only way you'll know that I'm innocent is if you are guilty. Are you guilty Gurthang?

Maybe I'm being a loudmouth, and maybe that's going against me, but we must get those heroes talking and confront them until they make a mistake. I ask of you, werewolves and warg, prove your innocence by talking. Make it suspicious to be silent so that the heroes are forced to talk. Sooner or later they will make a mistake and then we will catch them. They benefit from the silence of the innocents for they hide on our doubts and feuds.

[Kitanna]

Kitanna has not been around for a while.

I apologize for that. I'm not keeping quiet on purpose, I try to say something when I have the time to sit down and ponder what others have said.

I would like to put forth a note that morm gives us a list for the opposite of his own vote. Trying to revert suspicion? Kitanna also does the same thing with her list.

I noticed I was doing this after I made my post, but I still stand by it. It is more likely than not one wolf was in the Nonna list and one in the Glirdan list.

To pick a top suspect from each list I'd say morm in the list that voted for Glirdan and Spawn on the Nonna list.

Morm~ He jumped in early (which holds no real bearing) but early on he turned things onto those who voted for Nonna instead of those who voted for Glirdan. He knew eyes would turn toward those who voted for Glirdan and perhaps he was trying to hide behind the group that had the Huan as a voter.

Spawn~ Was the third to vote for Nonna. Boromir had already stated at this point he would most likely vote for Nonna. With two votes for Nonna alredy this seems like a nice place for a hero to hide in.

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by Farael

Now Gurthang, you can blame me of being jumpy, but would you not be if you good willingly tried to help and got suspected upon because of that?

That's not really an excuse to be jumpy, as it is what usually happens. Everyone is putting forth suspicions and guesses. Those who's suspicions don't make sense or are being willy-nilly with their accusations (or just plain hindering everything) usually get killed. Which means that some innocent wolves will get killed because they chose the wrong accusations.

But rest assured, I'm not really looking for a debate with you. My mind is pretty much made up for toNight, but that isn't sealing your fate. My vote won't even matter unless others back it up, so don't fear that I am your sole killer.

Now, another theory. Let's say that Nonnacedak is a hero. (YesterNight) Glirdan had 6 votes, Nonna had 1, and there were 8 votes left. This means that 5 out of 8 had to vote for Nonna for him to die. That looks pretty good from a hero standpoint. They can safely vote for Nonnacedak, a fellow hero, and leave a 'safety' for later. If Nonnacedak is proven a hero, his voters look (more) innocent. If one of the voters is a hero, than Nonna looks (more) innocent. This looks even more possible when Wayne gets a sudden 2 votes.

All that means that Kitanna, Spawn or Boromir could be heros and that Nonna might still be a hero if one the those three are. It would be a pretty safe and brilliant strategy for the wolves, especially with how close it ended up.

Also, if Nonnacedak would be found to be a hero, than Eomer's vote looks like an attempt to stop the bandwagon.

If, right now, I had to pick who I thought our three heros were, they'd be: Spawn, Nonna, and Farael. But I'd not bet on it.

[Meneltarmacil]

Spawn~ Was the third to vote for Nonna. Boromir had already stated at this point he would most likely vote for Nonna. With two votes for Nonna alredy this seems like a nice place for a hero to hide in.

She actually cross-posted with The Saucepan Man and therefore thought she was only adding a second vote.

With each post, Farael is looking more and more suspicious. He is now looking like a Hero to me. Perhaps I was wrong in that the three Heroes voted for three different people. Maybe there was nobody in that Nonnacedak bandwagon after all.

The three heroes, to me, appear to consist of:

Rune son of Bjarne
Farael
Oddwen

Time draws late in my location, and I find it difficult to decide between Farael and Rune as to who I should vote for. Therefore, true to my nature as a Lone Wolf, I'll keep out of the majority who want to see Farael dead and vote, as I've said before, for

++Rune son of Bjarne

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Morm~ He jumped in early (which holds no real bearing) but early on he turned things onto those who voted for Nonna instead of those who voted for Glirdan. He knew eyes would turn toward those who voted for Glirdan and perhaps he was trying to hide behind the group that had the Huan as a voter.

A couple of things here Kitanna. I posted fairly early on that I believe that a Hero could be among the group that voted Glirdan, however I believe that one was among the three that voted Nonnacedak. Now I would like to narrow the list a bit and therefore being that I believe that one of three is a hero it makes sense to go for that group does it not?

Now to say that I am trying to hide is absurd. Being the most vocal, by far, does not allow me to hide, in fact I'm very much in the open and the problem with that is obvious, though I only be a wolf, the words I say are twisted and used against me. That is okay because it helps to know what I think about others.

Now Kitanna and Gurthang much more and it seems like they may be in cahoots. I hope to be able to look more closely into that.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

(I should already be getting to school, so this is really hurried, sorry.)

Originally Posted by Menel about me

--Did not voice much suspicion of Nonna until the post right before she voted.

Of course I didn't voice much suspicion of Nonna before my second post - He himself hasn't posted at that stage yet. Somehow I didn't find it very reasonable to suspect people before they have said anything (unless they stay completely silent, but you know what I mean).

I didn't have time to go properly through everything you have said thus far so I won't go into that much. I'm surprised, though, that there's so much fuss about Nonnac 'bandwagon'. As Sauce said (though we didn't know that he'd be a traitor then) it would have been a good thing to have a couple pontential devourees. If the heroes had waited till late to cast their votes, we could have seen if they are trying to save someone. Now there are so many with only one vote that it doesn't tell much. Of course, I'm not saying that there couldn't be heroes that voted for Nonnac, but don't tell me that you are so blind that you don't know why it would have been a good thing to spread votes out more evenly.

Now I'd look at wolves who are a bit too eager to conjure up theories without giving them too much thought or who are making flawed accusations...

I'll be back a few hours before the voting is closed.

[Formendacil]

So few posts...

And so few votes...

It's 10:45 pm my time, and I have my beauty sleep coming in, in the near future, so this will be it for me Tonight- so I really ought to vote.

However, the candidates up for devouring are really rather lacklustre in quality. We have no one who has been screaming "I am a Hero" to the village, either figuratively or literally. We don't even have any strong suspicions, just a load of nondescript mutterings over the innocence of Nonnacedak. He may or may not be innocent, but the question is entirely up in the air at the moment, far more so than people seem to be thinking, in my opinion.

Rightly or wrongly, there seem to be enough people voting for Nonna to get him killed without my help. Unfortunately, the rest of the village looks no more appealing.

So I'm going to cast a protest vote. This alpha female has been arguing against anyone and everyone, Morm and Eomer coming to mind especially. I don't really think her the enemy, but she deserves more scruntiny than she's been given, and we all KNOW her to be a very crafty writer. We need to keep a closer eye on this one- whether she is innocent or guilty. And so I vote,

++Mithalwen

[Lhunardawen]

I told you all Glirdan is a werewolf, just like the rest of us! But no matter...he was still good fodder.

And as for SpW...that was excellent! An excellent job for these dumb heroes, I mean. I hope they'll have this kind of luck for many days to come.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Lhuna, as usual, appears in an odd timezone, and is thus spared the cross-examination that the rest of us have to endure. Her game seems quite normal as well, but since her normal game is suspicious (although innocent), that really doesn't say much.

Well, sir, begging your pardon, but nobody so far had the mind to cross-examine me toNight. I could verily answer questions directed at me once I wake up, but there's none. And that's a good thing, because I am a true werewolf. There's no reason for anyone to fear or attack me, whichever the case.

Now, I think SpW was killed just because he is a threat, whatever he is. He is witty and intelligent and a great boon to whatever village he is in, at times perhaps even when he is a villain. And I'm inclined to think that our heroes were afraid of him and so decided to kill him early on, before he can contribute anything substantial to the village.

With that said, maybe we should look more closely at those who are hardly experienced. Those who are more learnéd are likely to keep him and relish the challenge.

So far toNight, I can say that mormegil is the one shining the most under the moonlight. He has said some provocative words and sensible observations. Right now I'm inclined to think he's either Gifted or a helpful ordinary werewolf. It would be very hard for a hero to hide in the open if that's what he's trying to do, for he can very easily be devoured by us at the rate he's going.

As for Madame Mithalwen...well, she's quite tricky. The feud he had with SpW last Night seems sincere, and it doesn't seem likely that the heroes were trying to frame her. She could very well be hiding behind that feud to justify why she couldn't possibly be a hero, but I'm willing to give her time to prove her wholehearted wolvery.

Frankly it still escapes me why a Nonnacedak bandwagon was started yesterEve, but I guess I'll have to reminisce on the events. I still believe that majority of these nasty heroes voted for Glirdan. Though he seemed too suspicious to be true, the heroes must be grasping at straws to eradicate someone who they know is not among them.

I shall be looking back at the past happenings and see what I can contrive. Then, I must vote.

[Farael]

Well, it is time for me to leave you wolves for I need to brush my teeth, which takes an awful lot of time when you have fangs like mine. Still, before leaving you all I shall cast my vote and explain it.

I still believe that there are two heroes on the Nonna bandwagon so I shall vote one of them. Boromir has not been very friendly but I am not suspecting him right now. Therefore we are left with dancing spawn of ungoliant... who has not really said anything but when she did, it has been only to defend herself. I do not know about you but she is my prime suspect right now, and as I must go now I shall cast my vote

++Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant

May the Dark Lord forgive me if I'm mistaken

[Nonnacedak]

++Dancing Spawn

I said I would choose someone in my Bandwagon and I feel that this is as good a guess as any.

[Lhunardawen]

For now I shall resort to partially analyzing the voting patterns last Night, since all your talk is confusing me. Besides, it's very hard to see through talk who is a werewolf or who is not; one can be a werewolf and stay true to the nature of a werewolf, or be very helpful in concern for the village though that is quite contrary to the ways of werewolvery.

As I said before, I am inclined to believe that at least one hero voted for Glirdan just to get rid of who is to them a proven werewolf, and doing so will cast little suspicion on them due to the randomness of the first Night. If that was their hope, well I'm sorry but you're obviously mistaken (at least as far as I'm concerned).

Those who voted for Glirdan are

Formendacil
mormegil
WaynetheGoblin
Meneltarmacil
Oddwen
Farael

in that order.

Formendacil - he said that his vote was merely to elicit discussion, hoping to find something interestingly revealing. Perhaps he has succeeded. For now I shall think of him as an ordinary werewolf, but I will not forget the outcome of a certain village in history where this same thing has happened...

mormegil - he's being too noisy for his own comfort. If he be gifted, as I sense he is, he will do well to tone down a bit to avoid being devoured but not too much that the heroes will suspect him.

Wayne - confusing as always. Whatever he be, I say we get rid of him as fast as we could. The less confusion, the better.

Meneltarmacil - delightfully helpful, but this could be a guise he's hiding beneath. I feel a little uneasy about him, but that's probably just the female instinct.

Oddwen - she's flying under the radar with all those (to me) senseless posts she's making, and that's always scary. She might be having my vote toNight.

Farael - my guess is that he's just staying true to his character, but deep in his heart he's still a werewolf like the rest of us. Werewolf enough to help us locate and devour those heroes, anyway.

Well, the time draws nigh for me, so

++ODDWEN

I prefer helpful werewolves, and all that bloodthirstiness is a bit over the top.

By the way, does anyone have any ideas how we can put Sauron, Draugluin, and Carcharoth to good use? Not that I will be around to see the suggestions toNight, but I just wanted to remind you that we have them. Good Night all, and see you tomorrow Night. That is, hoping I'm still alive...

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by Nonnacedak

++Dancing Spawn

I said I would choose someone in my Bandwagon and I feel that this is as good a guess as any.

As good a guess? I find it rather odd that your guess happened to fall on the one of the three who already had a vote. Still, scraps aren't a meal, but the more scraps the closer to a meal they become.

It seems that the moon is bright enough these Nights for me to have shadow. But this shadow I speak of has a name. Starts with a Menel, ends with a macil, only has a tar in between; not that I'm naming names. It seems that we have many of the same ideas, yet his have been following mine pretty steadily. I'm not quite sure what to make of it.

I'm still leaning heavily towards Farael, but others are popping up in my mind. At least I'll have something to start with tomorrow.

[Gurthang]

Well, I went back through everything that Farael has said. Nothing has changed my mind, and a few things would even make more sense if he were a hero.

++Farael

See you all at dusk.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Lhuna

Well, sir, begging your pardon, but nobody so far had the mind to cross-examine me toNight. I could verily answer questions directed at me once I wake up, but there's none.

Actually Lhuna is the one wolf wich I am "sure" (You can never be sure in such a matter) is of her innocens.

1. I agree with allmost anything she says, she is just better to get the message across than I am.

2. She does not seem eager about making people follow her path, but just states what she thinks and then let people decide. (others can be very agressive tryong to convince people that they are right)

3. She refusses to jump on a bandwagon unless there is a reaseon, she is the only one actually cuestioning the one on Noona. While others has just continued as if it was the most natural thing in the world.

I know that last night I said Noona was on my list and he was, but it was based on allmost nothing. I have now allmost removed Noona frome my Suspect list, the only thing that strikes me as a little odd is the fact that he chooses one of those who votet for him. I know Noona has explained why, but it just seems a little like vengance.

Farael is the person I am most split in my oppinion about, on one hand he seems reasonable and on the other hand there is somthing sneeky abouth him.

I allso have an odd feeling about Formendacil, but I cannot say why. I will return soon with my thoughts on Formendacil and hopefully a vote.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

The thing I found a bit odd about Formendacil is that his posts has been without bite. They are kind of vauge and points in a lot of directions. This is quite normal infact my posts are just as vauge, but this is Formendacil. He is not acting like the wolf I used to know, he is keeping out of discutions, dont acusse people and does not post as much as you woul think. (All of this is by Formendacil standarts)

Therfor I took a look at his posts for tonight.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

I must say, when I said I was voting for Glirdan to stir things up, I really wasn't expecting such a bandwaggon to hitch itself behind me. Still, I certainly got an interesting thing going, with plenty of information to analyze.

First he defends his vote for Glirdan by saying that it was to stir things up, this I can accept. Then he goes on to saying that it was really a good thing. . . a bit odd, but not that odd.

He allso states that there is now plenty of information to analyze, but lets see what he says latter on.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

In my opinion, we are really in a situation as bad as last Night- more random voting on little or no evidence, with only the future's hindsight to clarify our actions.

Is this not a contradiction? Last Nght we had nothing to go by, but now as you say we have things to go by and yet your conclution is that nothing has changed.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

SPM's death, though a bit of an odd one from my point of view, is quite a logical one for the Heroes to have made. Since they knew that SPM wasn't one of their own, it was quite logical that they would have wanted to kill off one of the most intelligent wolves, and -more importantly- it was a move that any Wolf with half a set of smarts would do- and with yesterday's contorted voting record, we really have no way of guessing who it could be.

I just dont under stand this part. You give us a long expanation to why this would have seemed like a good kill for the Heroes, but just before you tell us how odd you think it is. I don't get it!

I know I have no great case, but it is the best i could come up with.

++Formendacil

[Boromir88]

Interesting arguments, all rather intriguing. Menel does make sense in his suspicion against Rune. Saying he's preying on someone that would be an easy target. However, would you not agree that yesterday Glirdan would be an easy target for a hero?

Rune and Farael, the problems with your belief that a hero would not have bandwagoned against Glirdan are:

1) With 6 people voting for Glirdan a hero can easily hide in there.

2) The mathematical probability.

3) You may think that for a hero to bandwagon against someone would attract suspicion to them. Yes, that's probably true, but also consider there's other innocent misled wolves in there, so the hero would feel safe. Also being a specialist in the matter Heroes place strategic votes yes, but they don't care who gets eaten as long as it's not them.

So, it's quite likely a hero voted for Glirdan. Am I saying 100% sure there's a hero in there? No, but it's a big enough probability to bet my life on it.

I see some intriguing arguments but Nonnacedak has shown me nothing to suggest he's innocent. He just agrees with Morm in that we should look at myself, Spawn, and Kitanna.

++Nonnacedak

[Boromir88]

Before I go, let it note that if I am alive tomorrow I immediately suspect those going against Spawn.

I'm not saying Spawn isn't a hero, but I see no reason to think she is, and seeing as we've had prior notice she won't be around a lot today, she makes an easy target for heroes to attack and misled wolves to bandwagon. Anyway, that's all I have to say.

[WaynetheGoblin]

Im sorry I havent posted much but im exited about chrismas so I forget about the game. People that bandwagoon are high on my suspect list.
1.Faeral
2.morm
3,rune
4.nonadak
5.Menel
6.Lhuna
7.oddwen
8.formen
9.gurthang
10.kath
11.spawn
12.mith
13.kittana
14.boro
15.eomer
I cant explain my list right now I have to go to school so.
++FAERAL

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Boro

Rune and Farael, the problems with your belief that a hero would not have bandwagoned against Glirdan are:

If you look at my post you will find that I conclude that the Theory fails and only agree with the fact that Heroes might not join a bandwagon every time.



Wayne I would like to know why I am nr. 3 on your list. I did not jump on a bandwagon so that can be it, is it because of Menel's theory or do you have one of your own ?

[WaynetheGoblin]

i am just about to go and yes it is his theory.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

I got back only now. I'll go reading toNight's posts before I say anything.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

So I'm going to cast a protest vote. This alpha female has been arguing against anyone and everyone, Morm and Eomer coming to mind especially. I don't really think her the enemy, but she deserves more scruntiny than she's been given, and we all KNOW her to be a very crafty writer. We need to keep a closer eye on this one- whether she is innocent or guilty. And so I vote,

++Mithalwen

Formendacil this is stupid and I know you are not. If he weren't already dead I would suspect you of being Huan. Your first semi-random vote started Glirdan on the path to death - a true wolf. How exactly does voting for someone you don't really think of as the enemy help the pack? At best it is merely a cop-out at worst - well I assure you my death would be a loss to the pack. I am a true wolf. When by my death I am proved it (and I do not expect the elves to let me live long) you may well rue this vote - How many innocents can you expect to vote for and survive.

I was right to be uncertain of you. As point of fact I haven't been arguing against all and sundry. Mormegil I have suspected since get-go and have explained why. As for Eomer I said I thought him innocent initially, but like all sensible wolves I do not take first impressions for granted.

I am trusting Boromir more now and like him will hang fire on Mormegil probably.

I do not particularly suspect Dancing Spawn... she has not hit my radar in a negative way. So no strong feelings even now save the strong urge to smack Formendacil for being so dim GRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I am so tempted to vote for Wayne for that ridiculous list of his. Maybe it was just meant to be a joke?

Sorry I haven't been around much tonight, but I have read everything and it does seem as if there's not too much info to go on. Not to worry; remember it is rather a large island.

I'll vote for someone who 'feels' wrong to me. I know her better than most of you wolves. She is fiendishly clever and knows strategy inside out. If she is one of the tricky Elves, then she is doing a wonderful job of hiding it.

++KITANNA

More than anything though, it's a reminder to all of you not to get bogged down in voting for just one or two. Spread the votes, and gauge reaction.

Oh, and to anyone critical of me for voting by 'feeling' as opposed to rational deconstruction of the arguments, remember that Elves can construct coherent arguments too. I posit that my method is just as valid; but if you want to dispute this then, by all means, go ahead.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Had another look and Wayne's list becomes clearer: a list in order of suspicion rather than a list of suspects.

Sorry.

[Mithalwen]

Eomer, I think I will follow your example. Formen -could a hero be so stupid..... ? I want to smack him and that is clouding my judgement. But Menel is creeping me out and I don't know why.


++Menetamacil

[mormegil]

I wanted to vote for Gurthang as something is not sitting right with him as I explained earlier but Kitanna is not sitting right also and now she has a vote. I'm unsure about Spawn being a hero and therefore I will vote my secondary suspect.

++Kitanna

I'm sure that this vote will be view as suspicious and that is fine perhaps it will help me live through the night so I can help save this pathetic population.

[mormegil]

Votes
Rune
Mithalwen
Spawn 2
Oddwen
Farael 2
Formendacil
Nonnacedak
Kitanna 2
Menentarmacil


I hope I didn't miss anybody and it seems as though our votes are spread out.

[Kath]

++RUNE

I'm two minutes off the deadline so if you want an explanation you'll get it tomorrow!

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

There's now too little time to make any solid theories on my own and I feel bad about it, but there's this horrible, unpredictable factor called RL. I'm also afraid that in a hurry, I could make flawed reasonings *coughKitannacough* ( the cross-posting thing that Menel kindly corrected) so even though I trust the most my own brain, I must now go with a theory that sounds the most reasonable to me.

Before that, a few ponderings based on what other wolves have said:

Formendacil has made contradicting statements today and his "protest vote" for Mith was reather odd. A nice way to vote without leaving any tracks to follow. Sure, he's right that Mith's innocence shouldn't been taken as granted, but right now, there's a whole bunch of wolves who seem more suspicious than her.

ToNight has made me a bit more wary of Kitanna (I voiced mild suspicion of her yesterNight). But I'm not sure what to think of her. As I said earlier, I'd be suspicious of people who make accusations so eagerly that they fail to check all the available information of their suspects, but then again, little mistakes happen to everyone.

As Boromir said, perhaps I have been toNights "easy target" because of my absence and now some consider my silence to be suspicious (which I find a bit unfair since I gave you a fair warning beforehand). Since there hasn't been much suspicion of me after Boro's post, I should think that there was at least one hero trying to get rid of me. Nonnac's vote for me -- well, apparently this guy's strategy is quite clear: if you suspect or vote for him, he'll vote for you.

Farael on the other hand said that there was "something wrong" with me and then he complains that I've been so silent and when I posted, I just defended myself. Well, it was pure chance that I even got here before school. The only thing I did to defend myself was when I corrected Menel's somewhat flawed accusation.

Hmm, we have now a three-way tie... not good. There are 2 votes for me, 2 for Farael and 2 for Kitanna. Obviously, I won't vote for myself. Help... Kitanna or Farael. I haven't been suspicious of Farael before toNight, though. I need to think a few minutes.