Werewolf IIX - Tra la la lally, here down in the Saga, ha ha!

[Lalaith]

I don't post so much because I like to read and ponder everything that has been said before jumping in with my own ha'porth. And with so many villagers, there is a lot to ponder!
I have my own theories on yesterday's voting which will take time to explain and I will do so later tonight. But I would like to throw in one question for others to ponder (other than my question about the Bear and the Seer which I repeated twice but no-one has answered! )
Anyway, my question is this. I am puzzled by Gurthang's voting yesterday. When he voted he had 3 votes against him, and Mithalwen six. In his shoes, with seven people still left to vote, I would probably have tried to guarantee my survival by voting for Mithalwen. But he didn't, he voted for Durelin. I'm fairly sure Gurthang isn't a wolf but this was a strange thing to do, could he be the Cobbler?

(And a vote against a cat for an animal activist, even more curious!)

[Meneltarmacil]

Lalaith doth seem a little suspiciouse, as I mentioned earlier, but I am not that confidente she is a Wolfe. She holdeth seconde place on my suspecte liste.

Gil-Galad, though, is ye moste suspiciouse in mine opinione, due to his vote for Gurthang yesterDaye withoute a cleare reasone after Mithalwen gained ye moste votes. If I had to vote now, I woulde vote for him.

Durelin may be ye Cobbler trying to draw suspicione towarde those who verily are innocente, but she is not as suspiciouse as either of ye others.

So Ye Olde Suspecte Liste goeth as follows:

1. Gil-Galad
2. Lalaith
3. Durelin

[Boromir88]

Just another possibility to Lalaith's and Laitane's defense of one another, they could even be the Sheriffs? Or they couldn't who knows.

Four first persons to post were Gurthang, Alcarillo, Boromir and Mormegil, respectively. Morm is now proven innocent. Could this mean that the other three can be excused, too, from wolvery (is that a word)?

Dancing Spawn, don't forget Alcarillo was another innocent.

Also I find your thoughts on Nonnacedek interesting. The sharp defenses of Mithalwen pointed out by Firefoot (post #41) got me mostly in my decision to vote for Mithalwen. Certainly it can be seen as it's the same case for Nonnacedek.

The thing I keep seeing is if someone's accused and they are harsh in their defense they're most likely are guilty. If someone's innocent, and they know they're innocent, there should be nothing to fear. There was the Indian belief where they would heat up an iron bar, and would touch it on the tongue of a suspected liar. If it burned the person he was a liar, if it didn't he was ok. The belief was if you know you're not a liar there shouldn't be nothing to fear, so the saliva in your mouth will stop your tongue from burning (only placed it for not even a second, not like they held it there). But, when you're afraid you don't produce enough saliva, the rod would burn you, then you're a liar. Bottom line is we can't check people's saliva, but those who are harshly defend themselves are afraid of something. Those who know their innocence should not be worried.

[Lalaith]

Aye, fair words you speak, Boromir, but against this I would say, that I have seen cases in villages stricken by tragedies such as ours, where the innocent said nothing, assuming their innocence would cry out to the heavens, but returned after absence or sleep to find their fellows had bandwaggoned against them and they were doomed.
So I will say this, as a last word before my return later tonight, to those who have voiced suspicions against me: that if I am a wolf I am a very stupid one. At the time I voted, Mithalwen the wolf had six votes against her and Gurthang had three. Any fellow wolf with half a brain-cell would do one of two things. He would either decide Mith was doomed anyway and vote for her himself to divert suspicion, or he would try to save her, or at least make a tie, by voting for Gurthang, the only other possible villager who was at risk of lynching. He would not, as I did, vote for someone completely different who had little or no chance of being lynched.

And I would also say that in our haste to put our own words forward, let us not forget closely to study the words of others.

[The Saucepan Man]

I've only time for a brief comment right now. I'll be back in a few hours to elaborate further on what I say below.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

... other than my question about the Bear and the Seer which I repeated twice but no-one has answered!

I had assumed that Oddwen's quick "yes" provided the answer - ie that, if the Seer dreams of the Bear, he or she will be identified to them as the Bear.

Originally Posted by dancing spawn

Random thought of the day: Imagine if Saucy is the bear. He's being so helpful in identifying the wolves.

I'm not.

And here are my thoughts on how we might identify the Bear. The Bear doesn't mind who is lynched during the Day, as long as it is not him (reference to male pronouns to include the female). So it seems to me that it is in the Bear's interests to stir up suspicion and, as subtly as possible, to throw out a fair few accusations, while trying not to act overtly suspicious himself. He will also be looking to jump on any credible ideas on who should be lynched and try to develop them, in order to keep the lynch mob as far away as possible from himself. He will be particularly keen to promote any theories as to who (other than him, of course) might be the Bear.

From what I have observed, the Villager who most fits this pattern of behaviour is CaptainofDespair. I am fairly certain that he is not a Wolf, but I am becoming increasingly suspicious that he may be the Black Beorning. When I come back later, I'll explain why in more detail.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Boromir

Just another possibility to Lalaith's and Laitane's defense of one another, they could even be the Sheriffs? Or they couldn't who knows.

I was thinking about that, too.

Dancing Spawn, don't forget Alcarillo was another innocent.

Oh, right, thanks! But this doesn't change my theory. On the contrary, Alcarillo's innocence supports it.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Any fellow wolf with half a brain-cell would do one of two things.

But we don't know how many brain-cells the beasts have. In other words, it would seem to me that randomness is a perfect disguise because it cannot be tracked down.

[Laitaine]

O Happy Blessed Yesterday, a werewolf fiend was dead
Although they aimed to kill us, it was their time instead!
O Friends Who Thought They Had No Clue, we had our first success
Amplify your efforts so we maintain our progress!
Although we killed one of those fiends, the wolves attack us still
And this time, they have slaughtered our poor precious Mormegil!
Not only that, but that Bear had to kill one of our friends,
That vicious beast has got our barman, brought him to his end!
O Foolish Me, for thinking Alcarillo was a foe
I wish there could have been a better way for us to know!
Perhaps I should explain the vote I cast on yesterday,
I chose at random someone who had not had much to say
Make no mistake, I doubted that my choice would be correct,
I just chanced a wolf would be one we would not suspect

Originally Posted by arcticstorm

As of right now Laitaine is on the top of my suspect list toward the black beorning. She have beleived yesterday that she caught a wolf with Alcarillo and when the villagers didn't agree with her she decided to take the matter up into her own hands. It would be easier for the beorning to take the victory with the wolves out of the way. There would be no possiblity of her being killed at night, and with no partners, not much evidence would be able to be found. So I am guessing that last night she killed who she thought was a wolf. To pave the ground for her victory.
Those are my thoughts on the beorning, more to come later

Clearly my vote was amiss, I’d followed flimsy thought
But I assure you, Noble Friends, ‘twas not my havoc wrought!
Arcticstorm, I must say that your theory is quite wise
But I encourage you to look as from a Beorning’s eyes
Why would the Bear take such a risk and draw such great attention
To kill the very person of which they had just made mention?

I think the Bear would like you all to think that it is me,
For the very reasons Arcticstorm has put so succinctly.
Believe when I say, my friends, that I am not the Bear.
And although my words mean little, listen with great care.
Arcticstorm could be simply trying to pin his guilt on me,
But I do not think this the case--his thoughts run honestly.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Saucie made a list of people who had posted but had said very little. Out of those 8 people Lalaith chose to only defend one person, Laitaine.

Lalaith did defend me when my posts took so much time
(You can imagine just how trying it is to speak in rhyme)
But I think that comment was a passing kindness, nothing more
I think Lalaith is just a normal person in this war.

It seems that there’s precious little proof to go on for today,
The only strangeness I observe is Gil’s vague-speaking way.
Of course, I too thought Alcarillo’s quietness was strange
But I was wrong on that account, so can Gil be deranged?

*dabs eyes with hankie*

Whatever is the case, my friends, my life has lost some years
I never thought a werewolf would make off with poor Morm’s ears!

[CaptainofDespair]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

From what I have observed, the Villager who most fits this pattern of behaviour is CaptainofDespair. I am fairly certain that he is not a Wolf, but I am becoming increasingly suspicious that he may be the Black Beorning. When I come back later, I'll explain why in more detail.

Go ahead. Lynch me.

You'll be sorry when my death is shown as a vain enterprise. Then, you'll have another night where two will die.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by CoD

Go ahead. Lynch me.

O these suicidal villagers! Can't you make a case to defend yourself? It would help a tad more in discovering the true culprits.

[CaptainofDespair]

Originally Posted by dancing spawn of ungoliant

O these suicidal villagers! Can't you make a case to defend yourself? It would help a tad more in discovering the true culprits.

If I'm innocent, I shouldn't have to defend myself. The evidence will clearly speak for itself. And how would it help? If I'm innocent, it narrows down the field. Sometimes, one can only have faith that his fellow villagers aren't country-bumpkins who lynch innocents at the drop of a hat.

[Boromir88]

Dancing Spawn, I must say for myself that is enough evidence for me. If CoD is playing a bluff it truly is a bold one if he encourages us to lynch him. Though that could be the bluff, in this case I come to doubt it.

Laitaine, I wonder in how you seem to know what bad guys killed who...

Although we killed one of those fiends, the wolves attack us still
And this time, they have slaughtered our poor precious Mormegil!
Not only that, but that Bear had to kill one of our friends,
That vicious beast has got our barman, brought him to his end!
O Foolish Me, for thinking Alcarillo was a foe

(emphasis mine)

It surely does interest me in how you know that the wolves killed mormegil and the bear killed Alcarillo.

[Firefoot]

B88 - Oddwen made that clear in her death post:

the mangled body of poor Alcarillo was coated with beer and bear saliva.

Apparently, the Wolves had stuck firecrackers in Morm's (always the heavy sleeper) ears, and set them alight.

[Meneltarmacil]

Captain, it seemeth to me that thou art trying to use ye idea Boromir88 mentioned of ye innocente not defending themselves as harshly as ye guilty. Thou dost not defende thyself aggressively in order to make it appear that thou art innocente. As for me, I knowe not whether or not thou art a Beaste, but I shall wait for ye Pan Man to explaine why he suspecteth thee.

I would requeste that finding ye Beare be ye Seere's top priority. As ye Wolves generally seeme to leave more clues behinde, ye Seere seemeth one of the few reale goode ways to tracke downe suche a Beaste.

And may I also add that SamwiseGamgee seemeth rather quiete lately. I am not saying that he is a Beaste, just making an observatione.

Ye Olde Suspecte Liste remaineth ye same for ye momente.

[Durelin]

From what I have observed, the Villager who most fits this pattern of behaviour is CaptainofDespair. I am fairly certain that he is not a Wolf, but I am becoming increasingly suspicious that he may be the Black Beorning. When I come back later, I'll explain why in more detail.

Interesting idea, Saucepan Man. I can believe that.

Of course, CaptainofDespair's threats are ones to keep in mind. We cannot afford to lynch a gifted, even if we do have one wolf down. Two kills a night is going to hurt us badly enough.

My main susipiscion when making this post was actually towards Durelin who seems to be handing out roles to try to get some attention away from him.

Her, please, my dear Boromir.

[Nonnacedak]

Aye it has been a busy day with the local trout... Just to get a some info out there to everyone quickly (Because the trout are needing my special assistance atm) Im going to post a quickie but I will make a more detailed post at a later time today. Let me just say I helped lynch a wolf (which was rather exciting I must admit) and I believe I was 6th or so in the voted for Mith therefore proving my innocence as not being a wolf. I must read over the post's more in depth to point some fingers and help my case.

[Boromir88]

Firefoot, well that explains it. That obviously never crossed my mind.

Well, just forget what I said Laitaine, obviously it's not going anywhere.

[SamwiseGamgee]

My goodness, I wish someone would buy us a replacement cockrel after we lost that faithful crower the night before last- now I've slept in. Nevertheless, it seems you fellow villagers of mine have been busy at the discussion table. So who do I see as suspicious here in Hamlet? Well, firstly there's Gil-Galad. The problem is, am I just bandwaggoning? But no, every argument I see laid out against him follows through and makes sense- in particular I myself noted his vote against Gurthang when it came along, rooting as I was for the death of that thrice-cursed beast Mithalwen. My eyes are placed firmly upon Gil-Galad at the moment. However, others do not escape this wizened old soul's steely gaze.

Firstly, there's CoD. I thought his randomness a little suspicious, but following his last two posts I have become even more suspicious of him. I put it to you, fellow villagers of Hamlet, that CoD is calling our bluff. Now I dare not urge you to vote, such would be folly, but I would like a better explanation from CoD and some cross-examination.

SpM, you tear me in two here. I want to trust you with all my heart, I really do, and I want to believe that your posts are long and insightful because you're thinking only of Hamlet. However, I can't get the following thoughts out of my head: (1) you voted for Mith yesterday when there was a very high probability if it wasn't in fact definite (can't remember) fact that she was going to hang; and (2) all those oh-so-helpful posts serve very well to focus everyone's attention on a whole bunch of different people except you. I don't know, man. I'm nowhere near voting for you, though, and I'm telling you because I really hope you can help clear yourself.

[SamwiseGamgee]

Seeing as double posts are allowed:

Nonnacedak, you're blowing your own trumpet for jumping on a bandwagon which was gathering steam all the time? (Post #135) That doesn't prove your innocence at all. Unlucky, kid, you just popped onto my radar!

[CaptainofDespair]

Explain myself? Hmm...that seems reasonable, I suppose.

First, I will explain my so-called 'bluff'. I have made no bluff to call. If you wish to lynch me, go ahead. Mark my words, though. If you do lynch, the Reaper will come calling for two more of you. I am not the Beorning. I am not a wolf. I don't care if you believe me or not. But it will be your heads they find in the morning.

As I won't be able to return tonight for another round, I fear I must vote.

Thus, I will vote for The Saucepan Man. Why? I have secretly been suspicious of him. He zealously seeks the wolves, yet provides little in the way of tracking down the Beorning (which should be the most important task, as wolves will take 3 days to get rid of their kill per night). Now, I know that I am not the Bear, so I count myself out. Thus, to me he and Laitaine are my only Beorning suspects. But, since I am more suspicious of him, I choose him over her. I call him a Bear in sheep's clothing!

++The Saucepan Man

[SamwiseGamgee]

A very early vote, and only just after I also voice some suspicion of SpM. Oh dear, oh dear. That's not the behaviour of an innocent villager, I don't think.

[littlemanpoet]

Sorry for not posting nearly as often as some of you, but I do have all that baking to do, during which time I CANNOT step away from my ovens and leave everything to burn.

I have done an overview of Day One. Sorry, haven't had time to look at Day Two, so sue me.

My really suspicious list:

Lalaith: She says she suspects Captain of Despair then votes for Menel. Huh?

Durelin: She votes compltely randomly for the rather innocent seeming (by all others) Firefoot. Then starts defending herself and making wild accusations as hysterically as Mithalwen the day before (Okay, I did peak at her day two posts).

my mildly suspicious list:

Boromir: Is too aggressive in his attacks against Gurthang over the in-character animal rights thing.

Encaitare: Points at Gurthang for merely being in character.

Wilwarin: for not voting when she could have.

Nonnacedak: for voting for Mithalwen because she was likely to get lynched; of course, that would be very rookie in a werewolf...

my not even remotely suspicious list:

LMP
Dancing Spawn
Saucepan Man
Firefoot
Laitaine
Captain of Despair

my probably not suspicious list:

Arctic Storm
Gil-Galad
Gurthang
Samwise
Meneltarmacil

My reasons are, in general, for the not so suspicious groups, are that you guys are making sense to me, and have so far not said anything that seems suspicious. Or, overly suspicious in the case of my final list.

Hope that helps. I'll be voting late like Firefoot, and for the same reason.

[Boromir88]

I have secretly been suspicious of him. He zealously seeks the wolves, yet provides little in the way of tracking down the Beorning (which should be the most important task, as wolves will take 3 days to get rid of their kill per night)

Well, Captain we all know you read Saucepan's post of suspecting you for the Beorning. His description of what the beorning might do seems logical enough to me. And indeed I believe he has been the only one to give insight on the beorning, everyone else (including myself) is just clueless on the matter. I agree with Meneltarmacil, best hope in finding the beorning is the Seer, but there are a lot of people to choose from so I don't see that day coming anytime soon.

LMP, whether you are still suspicious of me after this, is up to you or not. I did take back my suspicion from Gurthang after he provided a reasonable stance and have yet to accuse him of anything again. (post #59)

[Laitaine]

Originally Posted by CaptainofDespair

Go ahead. Lynch me.

You'll be sorry when my death is shown as a vain enterprise. Then, you'll have another night where two will die.

*looks up from recorder, intrigued*

An interesting statement, Captain--very risky too
It sounds as though you’re hinting we’ll regret if we kill you.
But not the normal sorrow when a single villager dies
Perhaps you are the Ranger, or you have the Seeing eyes.

*taps recorder against chin in thinking gesture*

However, this seems far too bold a taunt to ringeth true,
Therefore, O CaptainofDespair, I keep my eye on you.
I don’t know whether you’re brave or if you’ve pulled a chancy bluff
But it’s certainly confusing, and that might be enough.
“Enough,” I mean, to lynch you--a sad thought, I’m aware.
But I’d not risk my village to your ways, wolven or bear.

*purses lips* Still…

I will not vote till later, to see what others say
Alcarillo’s death has taken my self-confidence away
I would not want to vote again and be completely wrong
Therefore, I’ll watch the others’ views--then write my voting-song.

*blasts a D on recorder*

[Boromir88]

Well, now that I have looked more hard through the posts on day two, it's time to start putting some pressure on...who? Why Captain of Despair....

Coming into today I had taken Sauce's post into account and began thinking of Gil-galad. However, Gil-Galad's lackadaisakle (spelling?) defense actually seems like Gil-Galad being Gil-Galad so I am less sure of that.

So, let's see what we got...In post #95 Durelin says...

What's scary is that the bear could be anywhere. The bear could be CaptainofDespair, or SamwiseGamgee, or Meneltmarcil, or Boromir88...it could be anyone. The first three, and perhaps the fourth could also be a wolf. Could.

When reading this I interpret it as Durelin merely saying that anyone could be a the bear. Not pointing fingers at anyone, not accusing anyone, just mentioning that anyone could be a bear. So, I did not take this as an accusation, but bringing up the point that anyone could be the bear.

Someone took this differently in post #98, Captain firmly proclaims his innocence...He even goes so far as to try a little "back at you. You accuse me I accuse you." He even goes so far as to suggest that Durelin is the Seer, afraid of something is he?

Me? A Bear? *gasps* What nonsense! I can assure you, on the honor of my shrews, that I am no such thing.

As for you, why not lynch you? Maybe you have something to hide? Are you a gifted? Hmm...Into the future I cannot see. Perhaps you can?

Why would he be afraid that Durelin could look into the future? He obviously is afraid for some reason I think that post clearly shows it.

Then later on in post #123, I talk about people should only be stoutly deny their innocence if they have something to be afraid of (however I do agree Lalaith in that this always is not the case. I still think it to be an accurate way to judge).

Suddenly Captain's defense of himself seems to change in post #128 and 130...

Go ahead. Lynch me.

If I'm innocent, I shouldn't have to defend myself. The evidence will clearly speak for itself. And how would it help? If I'm innocent, it narrows down the field. Sometimes, one can only have faith that his fellow villagers aren't country-bumpkins who lynch innocents at the drop of a hat.

As Meneltarmacil points out in post 132:

Captain, it seemeth to me that thou art trying to use ye idea Boromir88 mentioned of ye innocente not defending themselves as harshly as ye guilty. Thou dost not defende thyself aggressively in order to make it appear that thou art innocente.

Now at first I will say I was skepticle of this, but as I see how Captain reacted earlier to being accused (which I didn't think it was an accusation), I think he was trying to fool us. Flip-flopper have we?

[Gil-Galad]

Go ahead. Lynch me.

that sounds like a challenge!


but yeah, i just got back from sailing, but i'll try to pay more attention, my supects list

1. Durelin
2.Laitaine
3.Mr.Saucey-the-Man-with-the-pan

[Gurthang]

Originally posted by LMP
my mildly suspicious list:

Boromir: Is too aggressive in his attacks against Gurthang over the in-character animal rights thing.

Encaitare: Points at Gurthang for merely being in character.

littlemanpoet, I just want to point out to you that you voted for me yesterday for about that same reason.

Now, I'm completely confused by CaptainOfDespair, Gil-Galad, and Durelin. CaptainOfDespair's 'lynch me and you'll see' posts are really stumping me. It is true that innocents have died and more will in these proceedings, but that doesn't me you should tell us to kill you, it just doesn't make sense. Gil-Galad voted for me yesterday saying that his reasons were stated by others. And now he is just confusing the heck out of me with his posts. Durelin: I voted for her yesterday because of my suspicion, and today she is also making strange statements and not really going anywhere with her posts.

Yet someone else has come into my spotlight. Nonnacedak. Two out of his three posts seem to have been aimed at saying he's innocent. To quote:

post #37

Us innocents must filter through the lies to save our poor village!

post #135

Let me just say I helped lynch a wolf (which was rather exciting I must admit) and I believe I was 6th or so in the voted for Mith therefore proving my innocence as not being a wolf. I must read over the post's more in depth to point some fingers and help my case.

He did vote 6th for Mith, an unpivotal spot in the voting, especially when many others had already voiced their probable votes for Mith. It wouldn't be a bad spot for a wolf to step in and vote. And the fact that he is making such a big about that 'proving his innocence' makes me even more suspicious of him.

So, my suspect list(since everyone seems to love lists so much ) goes as follows:

1. Nonnacedak
2. Durelin
3. Gil-Galad
4. CaptainOfDespair

[Gurthang]

After just reading Gil-galad's and Boromir's posts, (I cross-posted with both) I am now a little more suspicious of both Gil and CaptainOfDespair. Gil-galad seems to be trying to push the noose over to Captain(which could be the right way to go). The quotes by Captain that Boromir provided also make him seem suspicious.

Those two have moved up some, but I'd like to hear what people think of Nonnacedak.

[Gil-Galad]

woah my dear fellow Gurthang, i said that to quote Homestarrunner...mainly for humour purposes...and it was yo uyourself that said my humour goes unappreciated

[SamwiseGamgee]

I must say, Boromir88, I like your reasonig towards CoD, quite simply because I was in Durelin's little list, but didn't feel the need to lash out like the cap'n. After all, did that dirty blood-drinker Mithalwen not give herself away by protesting rather too much?

If I have to do a suspicion list (I know I don't have to- I just want to! ) I would go for:
1/ CaptainOfDespair
2/ Gil-Galad
3/ Nonnacedak
Those three are in no particular order, though- they're simply the three people I most likely see myself voting for before nightfall.

[CaptainofDespair]

Oh what have we here...

I'm thrilled I was able to return, as my shrews needed little tending today.

Well, shall we believe the old Captain when he says he might be a gifted? But which one, or am I lying? What choices we are presented with....

Can we believe what anyone says at this point? No. If I am the Beorning (as I am not a wolf by any of your reckonings), how can you tell? You really can't. So, how can you trust Saucepan's ideas on how to tell the Beorning apart from others? How do you know he isn't the Beorning? You don't. It is unwise to trust him until he is proven innocent. Striking haplessly in the dark is not a prudent course, either. You have suspicions, but can you risk killing me, should I be one of the all important gifted villagers? You might need me to die for you, not become your pin cushion of spite. So, do you rely on personality quirks (these are my natural tendencies, mind you), or do you rely on actual findings? Alcarillo was killed by the bear, but why? Did I vote for Alcarillo? Did I mention him prior to his death in, significant fashion? No.

So, go ahead and be witch-hunters, and burn me at the stake. But you all, like the Inquistion, will find nothing but the dead corpses of the innocent.

[Gurthang]

Gil-Galad: Point seen. (Although it was rather Out Of Context.) But just to make sure I understand, which statement are you talking about? The 'challenge' one, or something else?

If CaptainOfDespair is not the cobbler, than he is playing the role to a 'T'. He's really confusing me by hinting he's a gifted yet seeming to care little if we lynch him. I can't for the life of me understand why a normal, or even a gifted, villager would do that.

[The Saucepan Man]

Hmm, some interesting developments while I have been away.

I said that I would explain why I believe that CaptainofDespair may (note the emphasis on may) be the Black Beorning. And so that is what I shall do.

I do not believe him to be a Wolf. He started the ball rolling with a vote against Mithalwen after quite strong suspicions had been voiced against her. It was clear at that stage that others would probably follow suit. I do not believe that a Wolf would vote for another Wolf in those circumstances. Far too risky.

But this is the behaviour of a Black Beorning - to pick up on suggestions of guilt (in others than himself) and encourage them. Interestingly, earlier on Day 1 (post #36), he had picked up on the suspicions then being voiced against Gurthang and also made a random accusation against Durelin (perhaps to add her name into the mix). Next time he posted (post #49) was to vote against Mithalwen after Gurthang, Firefoot, SamwiseGamgee and wilwarin538 had all commented on her suspicious behaviour. Not the actions of a Wolf - but the Bear doesn’t mind who is lynched as long as it’s not him and his name is kept off people’s list of suspects. If Mithalwen turned out to be a Wolf (as she did), his first vote for her would stand to his credit. If not, that would be an innocent Villager down and he could distance himself from the outcome by pointing out the earlier suspicions voiced by others. He was quiet for the rest of the day.

As I said earlier, the Bear is likely to be throwing accusations about while trying not to look too conspicuous. He doesn’t mind who he accuses because he doesn’t care who gets lynched as long as it’s not him. CaptainofDespair started off today (at post #83) by voicing mild suspicion of no less than six Villagers - LMP, wilwa, Gurthang, Menel, Lalaith and Gil-Galad. Two of those (Gurthang and Menel) have not behaved remotely suspiciously in my view.

But what I find really interesting is the following:

Originally Posted by Durelin at #95

What's scary is that the bear could be anywhere. The bear could be CaptainofDespair, or SamwiseGamgee, or Meneltmarcil, or Boromir88...it could be anyone.

Originally Posted by CaptainofDespair at #98

Me? A Bear? *gasps* What nonsense! I can assure you, on the honor of my shrews, that I am no such thing.

Durelin’s accusation was not a serious one. She was simply making the (valid) point that the Bear could be anyone. So why did CaptainofDespair feel the need to jump in and refute the suggestion quite so defiantly? (I see that Boromir88 has picked up on this too.)

I also said earlier that the Bear is likely to encourage any suggestion that another Villager might be the Bear. Which is exactly what CaptainofDespair did (#110) in response to arcticstorm’s suggestion that Laitaine might be the Bear. And although I still harbour suspicions that Laitaine may be a Wolf, she is no Bear. It is very unlikely that the Bear (who needs to stay alive more than any other Villager since otherwise he/she has lost) would risk killing the person he/she voted for the Day before. And only Laitaine voted for Alcarillo on Day 1.

So this was the state of the evidence when I made my suggestion that CaptainofDespair might be the Bear. I really was in a hurry, and so could not elaborate. But I was also interested to see what his reaction would be without such elaboration.

And what does CaptainofDespair do? He reacts quite strongly by calling the Village’s bluff, adding a vague implication that he might be a Gifted Villager:

Originally Posted by CaptainofDespair at #128

Go ahead. Lynch me.

You'll be sorry when my death is shown as a vain enterprise. Then, you'll have another night where two will die.

Then, just after SamwiseGamgee has voiced a mild suspicion of me, he picks this up and runs with it by voting for me (#139). What’s more, he accuses me of being the Black Beorning on the basis that I have been zealously seeking Wolves while providing “little in the way of tracking down the Beorning”. Well, excuse me, but (as Boromir88 has pointed out) I believe that I am one of the few Villagers who has made any effort to consider how we might identify the Black Beorning. In my view, his vote was simply a reaction to my having voiced suspicions against him, as his stated reasons for doing so do not stand up to scrutiny.

CaptainofDespair’s reaction to my suggestion that he may be the Bear has therefore simply served to strengthen my belief in his ursine nature.

And yet I hesitate to condemn him. He is the only Villager who has given me any basis for suspecting as the Bear. But I may very well be wrong. If we want to lynch the Bear, he seems the prime candidate. But the evidence is circumstantial and he may yet turn out to be innocent. I accuse him in good faith, but I am most reluctant to see the blood of an innocent on my hands. And that is why (for the time being) I only say that he may be the Bear.

More later, once I have had time to muse over the other matters discussed while I was away.

(I realise that this repeats some of the reasoning recently expressed by other Villagers, but I composed it before reading their posts. It is encouraging to see that others are thinking along the same lines.)

[Firefoot]

Alcarillo was killed by the bear, but why? Did I vote for Alcarillo? Did I mention him prior to his death in, significant fashion? No.

Actually, I would be less suspicious of you if you had been suspicious of him or voted for him. At this point in the game, I don't see why someone would accuse a person in the Day and then kill them at night - it only points the finger in the were-person's direction. This is also why I find it unlikely that Laitaine is the were-bear.

I think that CoD's vote for SpM is odd, and I think that there are people who are much more suspicious than SpM. CoD votes for SpM, who he thinks may be the Black Beorning, then he comes back and says that it's basically a shot in the dark to go after the BB. Hmm... contradiction? I think it is entirely more likely for CoD to be the bear than SpM.

[Meneltarmacil]

Thou speakest well, good Saucepan Man. CaptainofDespair, thou art verily on my Suspecte Liste, tied for firste place with Gil-Galad. I shall not vote until later, though. I suggeste lynching either Captain or Gil toDaye, then having ye Seere dreame about ye other toNighte.

And if it is Captain we lynche, why not burne him at ye stake like he suggested?

And for ye recorde, here is Ye Olde Liste:

1. CaptainofDespair and Gil-Galad are tied
2. Lalaith
3. Durelin

If I had to put roles to each, I woulde say that Captain is ye Beare, Gil and Lalaith are ye Wolves, and Durelin is ye Cobbler. But, ye evidence regarding ye laste two is not as convincing thoughe.

[SamwiseGamgee]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

Actually, I would be less suspicious of you if you had been suspicious of him or voted for him. At this point in the game, I don't see why someone would accuse a person in the Day and then kill them at night - it only points the finger in the were-person's direction. This is also why I find it unlikely that Laitaine is the were-bear.

And it's why I'm very suspicious of CoD. Excellent point, Firefoot.

[Boromir88]

Some intriguing arguments have been made I see...

Meneltarmacil: If I had to put roles to each, I woulde say that Captain is ye Beare, Gil and Lalaith are ye Wolves, andDurelin is ye Cobbler. But, ye evidence regarding ye laste two is not as convincing thoughe.

Surely a noble proposition good sir knight, however I do find it unlikely that you've pinpointed all three roles down. There's bound to be a bad guy hiding within the "appeared" good guy crowd, it's just I say a likely chance.

I must say I am stuck in the same hole as Saucepan, I find today even more difficult then yesterday. Yesterday, I'd say I was about 20% sure Mithalwen was someone we wanted to get (which was the highest). Today I fear it's even less.

Captain surely looks the most suspicious to me, but it truly is a tough, tough choice. Our likelihood of not killing another villager today is very, very slim. Nevertheless, but we must do what we must do. Yesterday, was a tough choice and it turned out for the better, today will even be tougher to make. Like I said when I first awoke on the new day, working together, figuring things out will get us through this as it did on day 1.

[Nonnacedak]

Well it seems that some suspision has moved my way. Ill just say that atm I dont have a ton of time to speak and yes I get very behind hearing all the chatter about he said this, he said that therefore taking the little time I have.

Like I said before I was the 6th to vote for Mith therefore If I was the wolf that would be a rather risky spot to throw in a vote to a fellow wolf. With that said think what you will.

There is no way for me to prove by words that Im not the Bear as it could be almost anyone.

I still dont really think I have a whole lot to go off for suspects right now but I would say that there have been some really good arguments against Gil-Galad but I am going to wait and see what other experts (as I am definatly not one) have to say before I cast any kind of blame.

Oh and to clear up something very important. I be a male

[The Saucepan Man]

Some further thoughts on recent discussions:

Originally Posted by Lalaith

So I will say this, as a last word before my return later tonight, to those who have voiced suspicions against me: that if I am a wolf I am a very stupid one. At the time I voted, Mithalwen the wolf had six votes against her and Gurthang had three. Any fellow wolf with half a brain-cell would do one of two things. He would either decide Mith was doomed anyway and vote for her himself to divert suspicion, or he would try to save her, or at least make a tie, by voting for Gurthang, the only other possible villager who was at risk of lynching. He would not, as I did, vote for someone completely different who had little or no chance of being lynched.

On the contrary, voting for Gurthang would have put you clearly in the spotlight. I cite as evidence the suspicion that Gil-Galad (who did just that) has attracted today. There were still six votes to be cast when you voted. It was still possible that someone other than Gurthang or Mithalwen would be lynched. Your vote was for Meneltarmacil, who had already attracted one vote. The more I think about it, the more I think that this was exactly what a Wolf would do in your situation. Certainly, I do not think that a Wolf would have voted for Mithalwen when there was still a realistic chance that she might escape the noose.

Originally Posted by SamwiseGamgee

I don't know, man. I'm nowhere near voting for you, though, and I'm telling you because I really hope you can help clear yourself.

I trust (and hope) that my words speak for my innocence.

And now back to the Captain:

Originally Posted by CaptainofDespair

Striking haplessly in the dark is not a prudent course, either. You have suspicions, but can you risk killing me, should I be one of the all important gifted villagers? You might need me to die for you, not become your pin cushion of spite.

Problem is, Captain, if you are spared the noose and are indeed innocent, your own words have most probably condemned you to a grisly death tonight. You are most unlikely to be a Wolf, we are all agreed on that. But if you are not the Bear, you have all but declared yourself as a Gifted Villager and (even if you are not) you have thereby made yourself a target for the Bear to-Night.

I will not be voting tonight. I shall wait until tomorrow and probably vote late. Currently, I am inclined to vote for one of the following:

CaptainofDespair (for reasons which should be obvious)
Durelin (for her strange behaviour earlier today)
Lalaith (for the reasons noted at the beginning of this post) or
Gil-Galad (for the reasons stated earlier today)

My main concern over voting for either Durelin or Gil-Galad is that their behaviour just seems too obviously suspicious. And I remain far from convinced of anyone's guilt.

[Boromir88]

Well time is ticking for me. I may be on later tonight but it's not going to be a probability. I'm not going to cast my vote yet because I can't bring myself to voting on just one person, and who that person is going to be. I think it might take the night to figure this one out, in which case you'll see my vote (like Firefoot's probably) much later (around 7 am my time).

This however again is not a probability in that I will get up in time to vote. So right now the chance of me voting is I'd say 60% and probably likely to decrease. Just letting people aware of this if you don't see a vote from me.

[Durelin]

I'm wary of this bear talk, as I do think that the bear would be more cautious than CaptainofDespair has been. I think his posting more reflects that of the Cobbler. But, he could easily be a bumbling bear.

I see that, of course, you are still suspicious of me.

Durelin: I voted for her yesterday because of my suspicion, and today she is also making strange statements and not really going anywhere with her posts.

I will say plainly that this is because I have no idea where to go! There has been so much confusion, and I am more inclined to take in information and process it in my own way. That may sound like a load of crap, but it's true. And you know what...I think pretty much everyone talks a lot, but doesn't say any more than I have. We all make accusations over little things, and glossing over the fact that we really don't know who anyone is, we vote to kill someone.

But anyway... I'm very afraid to say at all that I agree with Saucepan Man, as I think his jump at CaptainofDespair has kindled a bit more excitement than it should have, most likely to his benefit, even though he continues to say that he is only saying that the Captain may be the bear. I just don't think the bear would be so bold as the Captain has been. This kind of boldness comes only from one who is sure of their innocence, and most likely is confused as to who is who, and who to trust.

What I find interesting about Saucepan Man, is that he fits his own description of the bear extraordinarily well. As far as I can tell, he has only attacked, and not really defended anyone's innocence. This could mean that he doesn't care who lives or dies. Also, he is avidly pinning the role of the bear on CaptainofDespair, and, as he said, the bear is wont to do so. Also, you have "thrown out a fair few accusations, while trying not to act overtly suspicious yourself," just as you said the bear should act.

It's possible that your detailed description of what the bear should be doing is what in fact you are doing as the bear. It's possible. And since right now you are a better bear than the Captain, I'm more inclined to think that you are the guilty one.

I feel horrible voting in such haste, but I will not be able to return until next morning's light. Thus, I will make my hasty vote, and, at the risk of being seen as a co-conspirator of CaptainofDespair (though, if he's the bear, then he has no friends), and at the risk of getting myself lynched, I will vote this:

++The Saucepan Man