Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

This is what I meant by relieving Eönwë of his suffering. His posting toDay is coming across as an increasingly desperate wolf.

It's actually an increasingly frustrated innocent who's realised he doesn't know what's going on at all and is trying to connect things before he gets killed off.

[Loslote]

Okay. Looks like the Cuties agree we're on the right track. I'd be happy to vote for any of Ka, Eonwe, or Brinn.

[Eönwë]

Interesting vote from the QT though

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The Quarantine Thread has voted.


++ Brinniel

Not again

Are they trolling us because we (= Boro) trolled them?

But in all seriousness, I am leaning towards agreeing with their suspicion. I'd still prefer to start with Ka or Eönwë, though, as I'm more certain of them.


edit: xed with everything after Nogrod

[Brinniel]

About to hop on a meeting, so I'm doing this now:

++Ka

[Nogrod]

And the votes thus far.

Shasta -> THE Ka
Rune -> Eönwë
Greenie -> THE Ka 2
QT -> Brinn
THE Ka -> Brinn 2
Brinn -> THE Ka 3

[Eönwë]

I'm probably most keen on quarantining Boro or Brinn at this point - Boro because I still don't trust his seer behaviour and Brinn because she's sub-radar and the QT thinks she's bad. Ka comes at a close second because I suspect her less, but we would definitely would learn something from her. Rune next.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Are they trolling us because we (= Boro) trolled them?

I would hope not. I mean if they were peeved at me, I would think they would have taken it out on me.

[Eönwë]

Should be back a bit before the DL.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

You'll be disappointed then.

I often am.

[Loslote]

++ THE Ka

[Boromir88]

As much of a headache I probably caused everyone, at least for myself, I'm pretty comfortable with these...

I considered making it interesting...because I trust Lommy and Kath more, but I don't trust Eonwe. Them and myselves I believe who we have left to vote?

I considered Brinn, because I don't know what the QT is trying to do, but I don't trust THE Ka, and she added on to vote Brinn.

I think the time for plans and tricks is over. A missed wolf today and we're in big trouble. So...

++THE Ka

Edit: changing to highlight

[Thinlómien]

++THE Ka

Let's roll with it then.


And about Boro - maybe y'all have already read this between the lines, but I have been far more mad at myself for falling for Boro's little ploy than at him for actually doing it. After all, if he's innocent - like I think he more likely is - it was never me who he was trying to "harm". But I've kept guilt tripping him after my initial yelling for two reasons 1) he kinda deserves to be teased a little after giving us all so many gray hairs and being presumptous enough to try to rein the QT to his own purposes and 2) I thought his reaction to guilt tripping would be telling, because I think innocent Boro might feel genuinely a little sorry for duping me while guilty Boro might feel more amused by it. So after the first two posts I have admittedly been partly fishing for a reaction.

The morose, low-key-seeking-to-make-amends vibe I get is not as unambiguous as I hoped, but it is quite a lot more innocent than suspicious seeming to me. I don't think a Borowolf would pull this kind of crocodile tears - in my experience Borowolf's reaction to suspicion is most often the "fair enough if you think that makes sense, I warn you you are wrong though" type. And here Boro is going "I understand if everybody hates me now" while he hasn't even been that seriously suspected - just his behaviour has been scrutinised which is more than understandable.

So tl;dr Boro - we don't hate you, not even me , and the rest of you - I think he's more likely innocent than guilty.

[Thinlómien]

Shasta -> THE Ka
Rune -> Eönwë
Greenie -> THE Ka 2
QT -> Brinn
THE Ka -> Brinn 2
Brinn -> THE Ka 3
Lottie -> THE Ka 4
Boro -> THE Ka 5
Lommy -> THE Ka 6

To vote: Eönwë, Kath

[Kath]

Brinn from the QT again? We've just finished watching Cats so I'm just seeing her as having nine lives now. She's been the pick so often now it just feels like the QT must have some information we simply don't.

That said, it is evidently Ka for the lynch now, so let's see where this takes us.

++THE Ka

[Eönwë]

Well it hardly matters at this point what I vote, but here's hoping that we at least learn something.

++THE Ka

[Boromir88]

Huh.

And now we wait for 30 minutes. I'll take it.

This is the most epic and strangest and weirdest werewolf ever. Regardless of the outcome, it's an absolute nerve-wracking pleasure.

[Nogrod]

As it is a done deal, you'll get the narration already at the DL.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

This is the most epic and strangest and weirdest werewolf ever. Regardless of the outcome, it's an absolute nerve-wracking pleasure.

Ditto. It's been absolutely insane.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

As it is a done deal, you'll get the narration already at the DL.

Yay!

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

This is the most epic and strangest and weirdest werewolf ever. Regardless of the outcome, it's an absolute nerve-wracking pleasure.

Agreed. This has been a fantastic game so far, I've been on the edge of my seat many Days in a row.

[Boromir88]

All the fireworks were earlier. We all deserve a cool down DL at least once. Recharge and back again for the weekend.

[THE Ka]

Day is ended,
Dim my eyes,
But the QT long before me lies.
Farewell friends! I hear the call,
The village is pushing me into the Hall.
Foam is white, and eyes are red,
I'm not quite finished with the dead.
Lists are spreading, role guessing is free,
Who do we really believe is the seer?
Try asking next time in the QT.

It's been lovely everyone, but it looks I'm needed for a kiki in the QT.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Boro

All the fireworks were earlier. We all deserve a cool down DL at least once. Recharge and back again for the weekend.

Just got out of my meeting. I agree it's nice to have things calmer at the end for once. Hopefully we are right about this lynch.

[Nogrod]

It was an odd day, this one. The opinions were more polarized: people were more secure on what they thought, having logical and rational arguments to back them, but they continued to differ widely on their conclusions - sometimes even with themselves. No wonder, some people started to freak out a little.

Even though it looked first like a race between some totally other people, in the end Indor – who had been suspected by many, but maybe in a milder manner – started to gain prominence in the voting.

When he realized he was going to be quarantined, he started mildly: "Let me give you a riddle instead..." But suddenly he turned black in fury. “I’m not going to go down as a “lesser candidate” you just can agree upon!”

His soft and light grey eyes flashed into bright red colour and white foam streamed from his mouth. He was growing in size, his sinews breaking, unable to cope with the new proportions.

Sadly, from his POV (as a puppet of Morgoth, that is), the three soldiers and Húrin were fast enough to catch and tie him down while in the middle of transformation into something Angband only knew what it would have been. Tightly in the ropes the magic withered away and people only saw a deeply disturbed and grieving poor old soul, trembling in fever and sweating uncontrollably.

“Get him inside and see that he gets water, bandages and clean linens”, Húrin ordered. Aerin rushed to take care of her father while Gethron and Algund saw to it there wouldn’t be no more surprises from the old man who now seemed to have lost all his willpower.

“So, he was one of… them?”, Morwen asked her husband – well, it was not really a question, but she felt she needed some verification for what she had just seen.

Húrin nodded thoughtfully and glanced to the children at her wife’s feet. "There’s still two more to find out”, he murmured silently.

There was a tear in Morwen's eye. "I miss little Túrin so much..." she whispered to her husband. "And I'm dying for fear for our little lily... will there ever be laughter again if something happens to her?"

Húrin grasped her hand and nodded comfortingly. "I promised old Halmir to watch after young Brandir. I'm not going to let little laughter off my eye either".


~*~


Dead, yes dead

Nogrod – “The Badger”, the Mod (dead on Night1)
Urwen – Glóredhel, healthy person (withered away in grief during Day2)


Quarantined

Galadriel55 – Andróg, the Cobbler (voted into QT on Day1)
Rikae – Haldir, formerly healthy person (infected by the shady Infectors on Night2)
Huinesoron – Hareth, an Infector (voted into QT on Day2)
Kitanna – Huor, the Ranger (infected in the woods by the Infectors on Night3)
Sally – Túrin, the Hunter (voted into QT on Day3)
Macalaure – Grithnir, healthy person (dragged into the QT by the Hunter on Day3)
Legate of Amon Lanc – Asgon, healthy person (infected sneakily on Night4)
Lhunardawen – Sador, an Infector (voted into QT on Day4)
Lalaith – Rían, healthy person (overrun and infected by the Infectors on Night5)
Inziladun – Halmir, healthy person (voted into QT on Day5)
Pitchwife – Turin’s Nurse, healthy person (infected by the Infectors on Night6)
THE Ka – Indor, an Infector (voted into QT on Day6)


Hanging around

Thinlómien
Loslote
Kath
A Little Green
Boromir88
Brinniel
Eönwë
Rune Son of Bjarne
Shastanis Althreduin



It's now Night 7

Sleeping is overrated.

[Nogrod]

Húrin, Morwen and the children had moved to the guesthouse after their last visitor had been quarantined. Even if it was truly embarrassing, it was much more comfortable there than in the back of the barn where they had spent their nights after the Great Hall had been made into the Quarantine-house. Now they had real beds, several rooms to choose and, what Húrin valued the most, some privacy.

That didn’t help him to sleep though. After securing that his family was asleep and the doors were locked, he sneaked into the Night to be alone with the stars. He knew the Valar, or something, was trying to aid him finding answers. He had fallen in a kind of trance every night under the starry sky and felt being approached by something. Like that night his brother was attacked.

Just before the dawn, as he was coming back from his half-dreams, he heard noises somewhere from behind him. Húrin stood up quickly unsheathing his sword, but there was no one there. He listened closely for the night. The air was tense, but there was nothing.

Then he heard it again. It was coming from the direction of the Guesthouse. Terror filled his heart as he rushed towards his family yelling “Drego Morn!” as he ran.

There were black shapes dashing all around him to the left and right – whether they were real or just some trickery of Morgoth, Húrin had no time or mind to find out. Suddenly he felt a blow in his forehead, coming out from the darkness. Time stopped.

Then he heard a yell. A yell of a terrified child!

Dashing off from the ground he realized he had hit a low branch of the village oak. He cursed his mindless splurging but hadn’t time to pay heed to anything but the sound he had just heard.

Getting finally round the corner of the Great Hall he reached the Guesthouse only to hear the screaming of Morwen and cries of Lalaith from inside – but what stopped him was the mauled and shivering body of little Brandir hanging in ropes from the doorway – all covered with blood, pleghm and sweat. He was hardly conscious, whining quietly his pain.

Húrin fell on his knees in front of the child and burst into tears.


~*~


Dead, yes dead

Nogrod – “The Badger”, the Mod (dead on Night1)
Urwen – Glóredhel, healthy person (withered away in grief during Day2)


Quarantined

Galadriel55 – Andróg, the Cobbler (voted into QT on Day1)
Rikae – Haldir, formerly healthy person (infected by the shady Infectors on Night2)
Huinesoron – Hareth, an Infector (voted into QT on Day2)
Kitanna – Huor, the Ranger (infected in the woods by the Infectors on Night3)
Sally – Túrin, the Hunter (voted into QT on Day3)
Macalaure – Grithnir, healthy person (dragged into the QT by the Hunter on Day3)
Legate of Amon Lanc – Asgon, healthy person (infected sneakily on Night4)
Lhunardawen – Sador, an Infector (voted into QT on Day4)
Lalaith – Rían, healthy person (overrun and infected by the Infectors on Night5)
Inziladun – Halmir, healthy person (voted into QT on Day5)
Pitchwife – Turin’s Nurse, healthy person (infected by the Infectors on Night6)
THE Ka – Indor, an Infector (voted into QT on Day6)
Shastanis Althreduin – Brandir, healthy little child (outrageously infected on Night7)


Hanging around

Thinlómien
Loslote
Kath
A Little Green
Boromir88
Brinniel
Eönwë
Rune Son of Bjarne



It’s now Day 7


It is time to have a discussion.

[Loslote]

Two more wolves. It's gotta be Eonwe, and I'm almost positive the other one is Brinn. I don't want to go around counting any chickens, but I think we're in a good position here.

[Loslote]

Just from a very quick scan of yesterDay's posts, I found a couple of posts from Shasta that looked Seerish. If that was on purpose to draw fire, well done, Shasta.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

++Ka

It's fine to go for Eonwe here too. Don't vote Lottie or Greenie.

This one in particular REALLY sounds like a Seer who might've dreamed me and Greenie innocent, and may have even dreamed Ka and Eonwe guilty. Followed by:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I think at this point if I had to pick a third wolf for an Eonwe/Ka duo it would be Brinn. Outside shot at Kath, maybe - I've barely looked at her.

Which sounds a lot like "I'm going to dream Brinn next; I haven't dreamed of Kath, don't assume I have just because I've said she looks okay."

I haven't looked past yesterDay, but at this point I sort of assume the wolves are looking for Seer clues in the more recent Days. The Seer has more info now than they did early, so there might be more clues to find.

[Boromir88]

My poor child, thanks for giving your life to bring down more than one infector.

Which sounds a lot like "I'm going to dream Brinn next; I haven't dreamed of Kath, don't assume I have just because I've said she looks okay."~Lottie

I might have botched my plot, but glad some good came out of it for coming out when I did.

[Eönwë]

Looks like we managed to buy ourselves another Day!

I also think I'm going to have to go back and re-evaluate my opinions on everyone, since clearly I have no idea what's going on.

[Eönwë]

First though, an updated full vote count:

Bold is evil, italics is good.

Day 1
Lhuna -> Lhuna
Rikae -> Brinniel
G55 -> Rikae
Boro -> Pitchwife
Urwen -> G55
Pitchwife -> Brinniel (2)
Kath -> G55 (2)
Shasta -> Pitchwife (2)
Kitanna -> Pitchwife (3)
Inzil -> G55 (3)
Lottie -> G55 (4)
Greenie -> Macalaure
THE Ka -> Brinniel (3)
Eönwë -> Urwen
Rune -> Brinniel (4)
Lommy -> G55 (5)
Huines -> G55 (6)
Legate -> Brinn (5)
Macalaure -> Brinn (6)
Brinniel -> G55 (7)
---G55 Fake Ranger Reveal---
Sally -> Brinn (7)

Reminder: while G55 is evil, because she's the Cobbler she and the Infectors didn't know who each other were at this point.



Day 2
Lommy -> Macalaure
Kath -> Inzil
Lhuna -> Lommy
Macalaure -> Lommy 2
QT -> Brinniel
Greenie -> Macalaure 2
Legate -> Huinesoron
Huinesoron -> Macalaure 3
Rune -> Loslote
Kitanna -> Huinesoron 2
THE Ka -> Loslote 2
Pitchwife -> Huinesoron 3
Loslote -> Huinesoron 4
Sally -> Macalaure 4
Inzil -> Macalaure 5
Lalaith -> Huinesoron 5
Brinn -> Huinesoron 6
Boro -> Mac 6
Eönwë -> Huinesoron 7
Shasta -> Mac


Day 3
THE Ka -> Sally
QT -> Brinn
Eönwë -> Sally 2
Kath -> Inzil
Greenie -> Sally 3
Lommy -> Sally 4
--- Sally Hunter reveal---
Inzil -> Brinn 2
Lottie -> Sally 5
Lalaith -> Sally 6
Legate -> Sally 7
Shasta -> Sally 8
Brinn -> Sally 9
Rune -> Inzil 2
Boro -> Sally 10
Pitch -> Eonwe



Day 4
Lhuna -> Eönwë
Eönwë -> Boro
QT -> Lhuna
Inzil -> Lommy
Lottie -> Boro 2
Greenie -> Zil
The Ka -> Lhuna 2
Pitchwife -> Eönwë 2
Lalaith -> Lhuna 3
Lommy -> Lhuna 4
Rune -> Eönwë 3
Kath -> Lhuna 5
Shasta -> Lhuna 6
Boro -> Eönwë 4
Brinn -> Lhuna 7



Day 5
QT -> Rune
Kath -> Inzil
Greenie -> Inzil 2
Shasta -> THE Ka
Eönwë -> Rune 2
Boro -> Eönwë
Inzil -> Rune 3
Lommy -> Inzil 3
Lottie -> Rune 4
Brinn -> Inzil 4
Rune -> Inzil 5
Pitch -> Inzil 6
THE Ka -> Shasta



Day 6
Shasta -> THE Ka
Rune -> Eönwë
Greenie -> THE Ka 2
QT -> Brinn
THE Ka -> Brinn 2
Brinn -> THE Ka 3
Lottie -> THE Ka 4
Boro -> THE Ka 5
Lommy -> THE Ka 6
Kath -> THE Ka
Eonwe -> THE Ka

[Eönwë]

So what, do we learn from the votes? Commenting as I look through.


Day 1
It looks like there were good and bad voters among the Brinn voters, so it's not clear whether we learn much here.

If Brinn is evil, it is unlikely that Rune is.
If Brinn is evil, Kath, Lottie and Lommy all voted to save her, so they could be evil.



Day 2
Plenty of good-aligned people voted for Mac, so a Mac-vote doesn't necessarily make you evil.

Rune and THE Ka voted for Lottie, which makes both Lottie look better - it's unlikely that THE Ka would make a packmate into a viable quarantine candidate. It also makes Rune look better - it's unlikely that wolves would vote for the same person immediately after one another.



Day 3
Both good and bad people voted for Sally, so we can't tell much from that. Theoretically, wolves might want to not vote Sally as a way of looking better later, but again, innocents voted for non-Sally candidates so we can't tell that much.



Day 4
I haven't gone back to look at the times, but Rune's vote definitely was to quarantine me and save Lhuna. Boro's may have also been, but it was a bit late.

It turns out THE Ka is capable of turning a packmate into a viable quarantine-candidate. Maybe Day 2 doesn't make Lottie look as good by association after all.



Day 5
We have one confirmed innocent voting for Inzil, and one confirmed innocent voting for Rune, so nothing obvious there.

If Rune is evil, Lottie seems likely to be innocent, since she brought him pretty close to being quarantined.



Day 6
Only Rune and THE Ka herself didn't vote for THE Ka. I see three options here. If Rune is evil, he tried to save a packmate, and the third packmate realised they had to go with the flow or get discovered, the wolves saw the current and decided to go with the flow, or, based on THE Ka's last posts about RL and time, she agreed to be sacrificed for the good of the wolfpack, which means that the earlier voters could also be wolves. Hard to tell

[Eönwë]

Looking at people's votes over all Days:

Lommy - Voted for Lhuna before it was a given that she was going to be quarantined, and THE Ka when it was. Voted to save Brinn on Day 1 and Rune on Day 5. Verdict: mostly good based on votes; less good if Brinn or Rune is evil.

Loslote - Voted Hui at a time when it could've gone in either direction, voted Boro before the village had made Lhuna a viable candidate, made THE Ka a clear frontrunner. Voted to save Brinn on Day 1 Verdict: mostly good based on votes; less good if Brinn is evil.

Kath - Has voted Zil (a known innocent) 3/6 Days, and voted THE Ka after her quarantining was inevitable. In her favour, she strengthened Lhuna's lead at an important time. Verdict: mostly good based on votes.

A Little Green - Until THE Ka yesterDay, only voted people who we know were innocent - Mac and then Zil. She did turn THE Ka into a viable candidate, but if THE Ka did offer herself up to be sacrificed, then this would fit into that account. Additionally, a second vote does not necessarily make a viable candidate. Verdict: mixed.

Boromir88 - Until yesterDay, when THE Ka's fate was mostly sealed, has only voted for innocents - Pitch, Mac, Sally, who are known innocents, and me for 2 Days. Verdict: bad.

Brinniel - Voted for Hui when it mattered, voted for Lhuna after it didn't, voted against Rune when it did. Made THE Ka votes a full-blown bandwaggon. Verdict: mostly good, but if Rune is evil, mixed; if Greenie is evil, less good (since that suggests that there was a plan on sacrificing THE Ka).

Rune Son of Bjarne - The only times his votes have had an impact is to save Lhuna on Day 4, and himself on Day 5. Voted for Brinn on Day 1. Verdict: bad; mixed if Brinn is evil.


So ignoring the conditionals, that leaves:

Mostly good: Lottie, Lommy, Kath, Brinn
Mixed: Greenie
Bad: Boro, Rune

Boro and Rune I already suspect, but I think moving forward it would be worth looking at Greenie more closely.

[Thinlómien]

Very quiet here - and I'm not surprised. I spent last night playing computer games instead of ww because I was like "eh nothing big happening in there toDay, Shasta the seer is dead and we're gonna lynch Eönwe and nobody can be probably motivated to do much analysis about anything".

WELL

Excellent job, Shasta, I now forgive you for your previous lack of psychic brilliance in this game

Because let's not pretend (I mean I understand why Eönwë is pretending but the rest of us shouldn't) this was about anything else than Shasta's all-but-seer-reveal yesterDay:

Originally Posted by Shasta

++Ka

It's fine to go for Eonwe here too. Don't vote Lottie or Greenie.

Why would the wolves have gone for him if he wasn't right?

I don't see a single reason.

They must be frantic that the seer is alive and could condemn them all. They can't afford to start framing people.

Ergo, I'm 99.9% sure Eönwë is a wolf and Lottie and Greenie are innocent. I was pretty certain of that yesterDay anyway, but I would very much like to thank Shasta for confirming it for us.

The question remains, who is the last wolf? I'm afraid I can't bring myself to dig too deep into the question right now because it's a pressing question only toMorrow AND my work might be wasted by a seer reveal anyhow, but if I had to hazard a guess, I'm still thinking Brinn, it makes the most sense. But I guess Kath and Boro are still theoretically on the table too.

I am going to vote Eönwë probably no matter what (sorry Eönwë if you feel obloged to respond to this, I meant what I said yesterDay that it would have been perhaps nicer to lynch you yesterDay because Ka might have been chill enough to give up toDay while you obviously aren't *pats wolvish head*) but it feels a little wrong to do it this early. I'll be back but yeah, like I said, probably won't post that much toDay because Shasta did all the work for us... (And given how long this game is, maybe it's nice to have on chill Day in the middle, in case hunting the last wolf will still become a big drama.)

[A Little Green]

Colour-coded spreadsheet of doom is back! I added everyone’s interactions with THE Ka, and based on what this gives me, my best guess would be that our remaining wolves are among Kath, Brinn, and Eonwe. Rune and Boro are also very much possible. Lommy and Lottie would be unlikely. Overall, I'm a bit unnerved by the fact that a majority of our remaining villagers still look compatible as fellows to our dead wolves. I shortened the bits about previous wolves for convenience, but didn’t leave them out altogether since they’re still relevant. Again, here’s the whole thing –


Lommy
Possible match with Huin, unlikely with Lhuna, fairly unlikely with Ka.

Huin and Lommy – Mutual suspicion without votes, could be wolf-on-wolf.

Lhuna and Lommy – Mutual suspicion with votes. Lhuna votes for Lommy with barely a reason on D2, Lommy freaks out about Lhuna’s bandwagon comment in the same post. On D3 Lommy points out Lhuna noticing Huin’s slip as possibly wolfish, which would be pretty brutal if they were fellows. Then on D4 Lommy casts a fairly crucial vote for Lhuna. None of this looks wolf-on-wolfy to me.

THE Ka and Lommy – Ka barely mentions Lommy. As for Lommy, on D1 and D2 she lumps Ka together with Kath under reasonable and innocentish. On D3 she says Ka's D2 vote looks bad in light of Huin's role, lists her as slightly suspicious and says used to consider her innocent on very little evidence. Then on D4 she says "THE Ka - still very much in her own bubble, which freaks me out a little. But is that enough reason to considering voting her? Ehhhh...". On D5 she says she’s been saying for Days how Ka seems harmless by playing in her own bubble and avoiding controversy and this is alarming as it reminds her of past Ka-wolves; considers voting her but prefers Eonwe. Then on D6 says Ka is a very likely wolf and votes her. This could go either way, but overall seems like a fairly natural thought process to me. I know I always say consistent doesn’t equal innocent, but this kind of consistency – starting from one opinion, slowly beginning to doubt it, then consolidating a different opinion and following through with a vote - doesn’t ring alarm bells.

Other observations: I still think her reaction to Boro’s non-reveal looks very genuine and makes me feel better about her.


Lottie
Unlikely match with Huin and THE Ka, fairly unlikely with Lhuna.

Huin and Lottie – On D1 Lottie agrees very vocally with Huin several times and even points this out herself; on D2 casts a fairly crucial vote on Huin.

Lhuna and Lottie – Mostly either consider each other innocent or have low-key, could-go-either-way interactions. On D2 Lottie suspects Lhuna for discussing Kitanna but later forgets to suspect her for it. When called out by Pitch, Lottie is open about how she probably has a biased frame of mind since she didn’t suspect Lhuna previously; I’m not sure a Lottiewolf would say she literally had a biased frame of mind where a fellow is concerned.

THE Ka and Lottie – Mutual suspicion with votes. On D1 Ka points out Lottie's repeated complimenting of Huin which would be pretty brutal from a fellow wolf on D1, later lumps her with Brinn as suspicious but suspects Brinn over Lottie. On D2 Lottie says Ka is helpful but under the radar, Ka suspects Lottie for playing safe and polished and is second to vote for her. Then on D3 Lottie finds Ka and Rune's votes for herself suspicious and lists both under "dubious". On D4 Lottie says she doesn’t trust Ka but doesn’t have solid reasons to suspect her, either. On D5 Lottie points out Ka's Lhuna vote could be wolf-on-wolf (again somewhat brutal if they were fellows), pre-votes Inzil or Ka, says she is beginning to suspect Eonwe but would prefer to lynch Ka, and says Ka's case against Shasta could indicate Ka and Eonwe being packmates. Later Lottie says she doesn't want to lynch Inzil after all but go for Rune, Ka or Eonwe; votes Rune over Ka due to better likelihood of a Rune lynch. On D6 Lottie still suspects Ka and votes for her.

Other observations: The Shasta kill makes Lottie look good, as Shasta was Seer hinting pretty heavily about having dreamed myself and Lottie as innocent, and the wolves obviously bit.


Boro
Somewhat possible match with all three.

Huin and Boro – Huin light-suspects Boro; on D2 Boro doesn't want to vote for Huin and votes for Mac at a crucial moment.

Lhuna and Boro – A lot going on. On D2 Boro defends Lommy against Lhuna and flip-flops on whether he finds Lhuna suspicious or not; on D3 still not comfortable with the Lommy vote and says he'll vote for Inzil or Lhuna; on D4 speculates on Lhuna-Lottie-Inzil pack, is first to pre-vote Lhuna but then ends up voting for Eonwe after it no longer matters given Lhuna's lead (presumably to flush out potential packmates? This makes him look slightly better). Lhuna, meanwhile, suspects Boro from D2 onwards but doesn't act on it.

THE Ka and Boro – On D2 Boro analyses the G55- and Brinn-wagons for potential suspicious votes, doesn't mention Ka or several other Brinn voters (Mac, Legate, Sally) at all; later, after this has been brought up by others, says Ka's vote placement was suspicious and wants to look closer at her. On D5 Boro agrees with Lottie's "wolf-on-wolf" take on Ka's Lhuna vote, and says Ka's case against Shasta looks opportunistic. On D6 he finds Ka the most suspicious and votes for her. Boro doesn’t really take the lead in suspecting or voting for THE Ka, but that doesn't necessarily say anything about his role.

Other observations: This was really interesting, actually. The non-reveal brouhaha yesterDay initially made me feel better about Boro, but looking at his interactions with our known wolves does make me reconsider somewhat.


Rune
Somewhat possible match with all three.

Huin and Rune – Barely interact with each other.

Lhuna and Rune – On D1 Rune says he always believes the best of Lhuna; as discussed before, this could be Runewolf hiding behind what he always does (in the same post he also said he always suspects Eonwe, and has consistently suspected Eonwe for most of the game). On D4 Rune says he would like to have a better look before voting Lhuna and won't just follow QT, which tallies with his previous independent voting and doesn’t tell much either way. Meanwhile, Lhuna barely mentions Rune aside from mentioning on D4 that he could be a submarine wolf; on the same Day Lhuna also casts doubt on Lommy's conclusion that the Legate kill makes Rune look good. Again as discussed, this doesn’t necessarily make them less likely fellows after all; as Lommy pointed out, this could as well be Lhuna pointing out a flaw in a theory that she only spotted because she knew that the premise (Rune is innocent) was faulty.

THE Ka and Rune - On D1 Ka lumps Rune together with Lhuna in her long-ish discussion of their time constraints; I know I said this made me think Ka and Lhuna were fellows, but I’m not sure whether she would single out two fellow wolves this way. On D2 Rune says Ka is leaning good, insightful and helpful, but nothing concrete. On D4 Ka subtly questions Lhuna's criticism of Lommy's theory re:Legate that would point to innocent Rune; this would make sense with Ka being a fellow of both Rune and Lhuna. On D5 Ka downplays the QT vote for Rune. Then on D6 Rune says Ka seems more innocent than not, probably the last person aside from Eonwe to think so.

Other observations: This would be a lot easier if we actually knew why the wolves killed Legate. Because I agree with Lommy, if they were looking for possible Seers it’s fairly unlikely that Rune is a wolf.


Brinn
Somewhat possible match with all three.

Huin and Brinn – Huin vocally defends Brinn, Brinn votes for Huin. As mentioned before, the latter could be Brinn trying to distance herself from a fellow wolf who had attached himself a little too closely to her.

Lhuna and Brinn - Mutual suspicion since D2. On D2 Lhuna speculates about Brinn-Huin wolf pair, though only after it had already been brought up by others. On D3 Brinn feels worse about Lhuna, does an analysis and finds her suspicious but doesn't consider voting her as she hasn't been around; on D4 Brinn is seventh to vote for Lhuna. Could pass for wolf-on-wolf.

THE Ka and Brinn – Mutual suspicion here too. On D1 Brinn says THE Ka seems level-headed and leaning innocentish, while Ka suspects Brinn for playing safe and votes for her (3., with G55 4 and Pitch 3). This would be risky but not unthinkably so for D1 wolf-on-wolf as both G55 and Pitch were ahead of Brinn. On D2 Ka continues to suspect Brinn but votes for Lottie (both had 1 vote at the time). On D3 Brinn forgets Ka from her list of non-Mac/Huin voters and then says she needs to keep a better eye on her, later analyses her but doesn't come to a conclusion. On D4 Brinn still hasn’t come to a conclusion about Ka but says Ka's vote for Lhuna could be wolf-on-wolf. On D5 Brinn pre-votes Inzil and "to a lesser extent" Ka; then on D6 follows Boro on suspecting Ka and votes for her. Ka votes for Brinn, though she was so universally suspected by this stage that I don’t think we can give much weight to her vote either way.

Other observations: I still don’t know what to make of the Cutie votes for her – or more specifically, of the Cuties voting for her again with an innocent majority. Brinn being a wolf would also explain why the wolves didn’t believe Boro’s fake Seer hints.


Eonwe
Somewhat possible match with all three.

Huin and Eonwe – Eonwe casts deciding vote on Huin, though as discussed he will probably have been aware of this at the time so this doesn’t necessarily clear him.

Lhuna and Eonwe – Eonwe doesn’t suspect Lhuna; Lhuna supects Eonwe on D2 but in the same post says she considers voting Lommy, Brinn or Boro, then on D4 Lhuna elaborates on her Eonwe suspicions and votes for him.

THE Ka and Eonwe – This gave me a headache. On D1 Eonwe says he likes Lommy and Ka so far, and is wary about Brinn agreeing with him on this. On D2 Eonwe points out Ka and Brinn as possible fellows, but also says she still seems good. On D3 he lists Ka under "concerned about" based on her Lottie vote and says he "could vote" her or Rune. Then on D4 he "feels better about Ka" due to Mac turning out innocent and lists her under "unsure, leaning good", but later the same Day he is wary of Lommy, THE Ka, and Brinn due to discussion over Legate. On D5 Ka suspects Shasta because he is defensive of Eonwe, Eonwe thinks this could implicate Ka and Shasta as fellows. Finally on D6 Eonwe lists Ka with two TBDs and one "bad" over lumping him and Shasta together, also calls her D2 vote "kind of bad". Later he starts suspecting Boro/Lottie/Shasta for framing him and Ka, then backtracks saying that if Ka is a wolf he needs to look elsewhere; votes Ka after she is already a goner. This is so messy that I don’t know what to think. Ka’s suspicion of Shasta based on him being defensive of Eonwe – while saying remarkably little about Eonwe himself – is very interesting. At the same time, I’m not sure an Eonwolf would really say he and Ka are innocents being framed by wolves in a situation where Ka looked like a very likely lynch. Also just in general, Eonwe's opinion on Ka flips and flops almost too much for them to be fellows; a careful Eonwolf would possibly try to decide whether to wolf-on-wolf and then stick with it rather than waver this much.

Other observations: The Shasta kill looks really bad on Eonwe, as it looked like Shasta was a wolf who had dreamed myself and Lottie as innocents, Ka as a wolf, and Eonwe as either another dreamed wolf or at the very least a likely next dream.


Kath
Possible match with all three.

Huin and Kath – Barely interact with each other.

Lhuna and Kath – Lhuna barely mentions Kath. On D1 Kath berates Lhuna for Nilping; on D3 says Lhuna would've been her second choice for lynchee due to her role in discussing Kit (voted Inzil); on D4 pre-votes Inzil or Lhuna, fifth to vote for Lhuna. I disagree with Eonwe’s conclusion that this vote is unlikely to be wolf-on-wolf. Kath had said for two Days that her top suspects were Inzil and Lhuna, so voting for anyone outside of those two would have raised eyebrows. By the time she voted, Inzil had one vote and Lhuna was in the lead with 4 votes to Eonwe’s 3. Voting for Inzil instead of Lhuna would have looked really fishy for her the next Day if Lhunawolf did end up lynched, which was beginning to look likely at that point. So fellows or no, I don’t think Kath had a choice but to follow up on her suspicion of Lhuna and vote for her.

THE Ka and Kath – barely interact with each other; on D2 Kath questions Ka on whether she actually suspects Lottie or not, then on D6 Kath votes for Ka after she is already a goner.

Other observations: Kath is doing a good job of contributing actively while keeping out of the spotlight. She does this regardless of role, but her lack of interaction with both Huin and THE Ka makes me pretty uneasy. The suspicion of Lhuna, while a lot more substantial, isn’t incompatible with being wolf-on-wolf, either – especially coupled with the fact that she kept Lhuna as a second choice behind Inzil, and that Lhuna doesn’t really mention Kath.

[A Little Green]

Based on the above (sorry for the length, but I think it'll be useful analysis fodder later on too), I'd be happiest with lynching Eonwe toDay, followed by Kath or Brinn; I agree with Lommy that the Shasta kill makes Eonwe our best lead. I don't necessarily agree that toDay is a wasted Day, though. Yes, there might be a Seer reveal at some point in the future, and yes, that might mean we'd end up speculating in vain, but having a ghost Day where people just pop in to vote Eonwe and leave gives us very little to go on for toMorrow. Even if we're right about Eonwe, there's still one more wolf out there, and I don't think we should just lie back and wait for the Seer to catch them for us.

[Thinlómien]

Reading Greenie's (very thoughtful) post, I realised I forgot Rune exists

Let's recapitulate. Wolf likelihood ranking imo:

1. Eönwë
---------------------
2. Brinniel
---------------------
3. Kath
4. Boro
5. Rune
---------------------
6. Greenie
7. Lottie

Originally Posted by Greenie

I agree with Lommy that the Shasta kill makes Eonwe our best lead. I don't necessarily agree that toDay is a wasted Day, though. Yes, there might be a Seer reveal at some point in the future, and yes, that might mean we'd end up speculating in vain, but having a ghost Day where people just pop in to vote Eonwe and leave gives us very little to go on for toMorrow. Even if we're right about Eonwe, there's still one more wolf out there, and I don't think we should just lie back and wait for the Seer to catch them for us.

I agree very much in principle, but in practice I'm feeling a little lazy and I have been playing pretty intensely the whole game so if I'm ever gonna take half a Day off it's gonna be toDay. And I won't judge anyone else for doing the same, provided that (if they're alive) they're gonna be back in full steam toMorrow.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Mostly good: Lottie, Lommy, Kath, Brinn
Mixed: Greenie
Bad: Boro, Rune

Boro and Rune I already suspect, but I think moving forward it would be worth looking at Greenie more closely.

Interesting...well looking at your votes:

Day 1: Urwen
Day 2: Huey
Day 3: sally
Day 4: Boro
Day 5: Rune
Day 6: Ka

2 confirmed wolves, 2 confirmed innocents, 2 unknowns.

I don't give you credit for The Ka. That was an even more straight forward, organized lynch than Lhuna's. It's more possible wolf-on-wolf voting than anything else we've seen.

With that, I don't give you blame for sally, as everyone assumed wrong when she revealed.

You spent a lot of time yesterday assuming my guilt (after chastising me for doing the same thing earlier) and trying to steer us away from lynching a confirmed wolf, when in the end you voted for Ka, but at a time when it didn't matter

Aside from Huey, your voting is highly suspicious.

Two more wolves. It's gotta be Eonwe, and I'm almost positive the other one is Brinn. I don't want to go around counting any chickens, but I think we're in a good position here.~Lottie

I have a bit of pause here...The Ka's lynch was even more orderly than Lhuna's. The QT gave us Brinn, and we stuck with Shasta's suspicions. I don't think the 2 wolves would be giving up that easily if it was this simple. I think the clear choice of 1 wolf is Eonwe at the moment, but not entirely convinced Brinn is the last.

It could be Rune who has also been sending out seer clues for a few days and perhaps it's an Eonwe/Rune as the last 2. Rune going against Eonwe, and vice versa is their tactic to distance themselves and look favorably to us. I believe, 2 innocents lynched and that's all the wolves need. I pause with assuming Eonwe/Brinn, because yesterday's lynch of Ka looked too simple.

I don't even know if it matters, since the QT appears to like to toy with our votes more than the infectors...but for posterity.

+-Eonwe

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Based on the above (sorry for the length, but I think it'll be useful analysis fodder later on too), I'd be happiest with lynching Eonwe toDay, followed by Kath or Brinn; I agree with Lommy that the Shasta kill makes Eonwe our best lead. I don't necessarily agree that toDay is a wasted Day, though. Yes, there might be a Seer reveal at some point in the future, and yes, that might mean we'd end up speculating in vain, but having a ghost Day where people just pop in to vote Eonwe and leave gives us very little to go on for toMorrow. Even if we're right about Eonwe, there's still one more wolf out there, and I don't think we should just lie back and wait for the Seer to catch them for us.

I agree with you, but I think there might be a bit of fatigue in the village. Should one of the main suspects turn out innocent, then we would rue a wasted day.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Reading Greenie's (very thoughtful) post, I realised I forgot Rune exists

I get that a lot these days.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Let's recapitulate. Wolf likelihood ranking imo:

1. Eönwë
---------------------
2. Brinniel
---------------------
3. Kath
4. Boro
5. Rune
---------------------
6. Greenie
7. Lottie


I agree very much in principle, but in practice I'm feeling a little lazy and I have been playing pretty intensely the whole game so if I'm ever gonna take half a Day off it's gonna be toDay. And I won't judge anyone else for doing the same, provided that (if they're alive) they're gonna be back in full steam toMorrow.

I agree with the overall sentiment of your list, though I find that there isn't much separating 3-7 in suspicion/innocence level.

Mine would probably look like this:

1. Eönwë
2. Brinniel
3. Boro
4. Lottie
5. Kath
6. Lommy
7. Greenie

[Brinniel]

My dear village! It seems you could use the help of your Seer toDay.

Originally Posted by Lommy Post - yesterDay #1309

ToDay and toMorrow are crucial Days, and I hope our brave seer is dabbling in maths as well as clairvoyance. But as long as they are in hiding, we have to use our little gray cells.

Well I did do the math, and considered revealing yesterDay. But once I saw the lynch moving towards The Ka, I decided I needed to risk waiting one more Day and luckily it paid off. Thank you Shasta for putting out seerish vibes and saving me from the wolves one more Night.

So the math...

We have 8 players. 4 ordos, 2 wolves, 1 seer, 1 innocent child.

The good news: I know who 3 out of 4 ordos are: Lommy, Eonwe, Greenie.
The better news: I know 1 out the 2 wolves.

++Kath

That means there is one more wolf hiding among Rune, Boro, and Lottie.

Originally Posted by NogMod from The Rules

The Innocent Child can reveal herself to be the Innocent Child. In that case the Mod confirms the revelation.

So, if the innocent child comes out toDay, we can confirm the innocence of one more player. Then I can dream toNight and signal who the final wolf is toMorrow via the QT vote. We've got this village.

In case you're wondering about my dreams:

Night 1: Lommy
Night 2: Pitch
Night 3: Lhuna
Night 4: Shasta
Night 5: Eonwe
Night 6: Greenie
Night 7: Kath

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Let's recapitulate. Wolf likelihood ranking imo:

1. Eönwë
---------------------
2. Brinniel
---------------------
3. Kath
4. Boro
5. Rune
---------------------
6. Greenie
7. Lottie

I really like this way of ranking it. I completely agree, though I'd have Lommy at 6 and Greenie at 7 after the wolves took Shasta's Seer bait. I still think Brinn is the most likely fifth wolf, but I agree that Kath, Boro, or Rune could theoretically be possibilities. If it comes to that, maybe the Seer will be able to narrow down that choice for us some - but hopefully it doesn't come to that!