Game thread - Werewolf C - The Father Christmas Murders

[Inziladun]

I was considering G55, but Coppermirror's vote looks like a straight-up bandwagon attempt.

x/d with Boro

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I was considering G55, but Coppermirror's vote looks like a straight-up bandwagon attempt.

You're one of the two players I suspected the most toDay (albeit not on great grounds, but I don't have anything better to go by), and I decided not to vote for G55. I want to play straightforwardly here, and not be cowardly by failing to vote for the person I suspect the most, even if that means casting a second vote and perhaps looking suspicious because of that.

[Boromir88]

I'm going to be present through the DL, but I can't see much that will change my mind today...

++sally

No point in waiting...get a few names out there and see what happens/others decide to do.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I was considering G55, but Coppermirror's vote looks like a straight-up bandwagon attempt.

There's a possibility of that. Based on the few suspicions we've had toDay, she seems like the most reasonably suspected person at the moment.

Yes, I can see how she might be a wolf, in which case all or most of the suspicions are justified and likely true.

Yes, I can also see her as an innocent making... what's the word? Not slips. Not mistakes. Just saying things that others could turn against you, when it's just a coincidence.

I would leave Cop for now, because while she looks like she's bandwagoning, it also looks like she's being bandwagoned. Plus, I haven't changed my mind about Legate. Or my guts feelings. Take your pick.

EDIT: xed with Cop and Boro

[Eönwë]

Clarifications and other thoughts while catching up:

- I don't particularly suspect Coppermirror of being a Cobbler. While that suspicion has been brought up based on at least two posts, I don't think a Cobbler would lean so heavily on such an obviously Cobbler-favouring IC role. That said, it doesn't mean that I find CM innocent at the moment.

-Legate. I'm not really finding him that innocent now that I look over him, but I'm not inclined to single him out for the lynch toDay because he's generating some good discussion at least.

-I'm not particularly keen on a Zil lynch toDay.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

You're one of the two players I suspected the most toDay (albeit not on great grounds, but I don't have anything better to go by), and I decided not to vote for G55. I want to play straightforwardly here, and not be cowardly by failing to vote for the person I suspect the most, even if that means casting a second vote and perhaps looking suspicious because of that.

I can respect that, though it still looks opportunistic, much more so than Lommy's.

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

I would leave Cop for now, because while she looks like she's bandwagoning, it also looks like she's being bandwagoned. Plus, I haven't changed my mind about Legate. Or my guts feelings. Take your pick.

I don't see how Coppermirror is the subject of a bandwagon, unless I've missed something.

[Inziladun]

Legate does seem a little off, as in a little more detached and rushed-feeling, and I disagree with his suspicion of Boro. Still, I don't know that's enough grounds for a vote at this point.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I don't see how Coppermirror is the subject of a bandwagon, unless I've missed something.

Not in the sense that she's gaining votes, but that peope are sticking suspicion stickers onto her one after the other. A bandwagon of suspicion before the bandwagon of votes.

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Not in the sense that she's gaining votes, but that peope are sticking suspicion stickers onto her one after the other. A bandwagon of suspicion before the bandwagon of votes.

I have noticed that. All those comments one after the other. I'd think it looked suspicious as a co-ordinated thing, but I really don't think that two wolves would be piling on me one after the other. Wouldn't they be wanting to spread things out? It would look bad if they got me lynched and there were two of them voting for me.

A cobbler and a wolf might go for it, though, if they thought that I was innocent. It's not long before deadline and would be a good time for it, after they'd seen a bunch of posts from me and I'd already cast my vote, which leaves an opening to go for. It's also possible that there could be a Cobbler thinking that Inzil is a wolf and trying to save him, but that might be overthinking things, and it wouldn't necessarily make Inzil any more likely to be a wolf.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by G55

I have to say that while Lommy's vote explanation seemed lousy at first glance, I'm quite impressed with it, considering how little there is to go on from. That is probably the most reasonable thing toDay.

Really? All I see is an explanation of a Day 1 vote based on a feeling that "Inzil feels lazy." Passable, for Day 1, but I'm curious as to why you're so impressed with it.

I don't really care for Cop's reason for suspecting G55, and I'm not sure I understand her reason for Inzil. Mind explaining, Cop?

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Translation: "Hey, wolves, look what I found!" No, really, are you sure you're not the Cobbler of Christmas Present?

This was a pretty good catch, my sun in splendor.

Originally Posted by Legate

Anyway, now I should say, that however I appreciate Boro's effort, I must say something strikes me as false in that whole behavior (up to the "I forgot that Lommy voted" - for some reason, that struck me as false, I don't know why, but it just seems that way). Partially also I agree with Copper, why don't you also play this game, even though you have removed yourself (rather illogically) from the list (if it's meant to be for everyone, there is no need for making a "subjective" list if everyone is supposed to try it anyway).

This seems a bit silly, honestly. One the one hand, you think it's good that Boro brought up some discussion, then immediately seem to suspect him for it. I don't really understand that at all...

Originally Posted by G55

This actually stands out in a negative way. It's like Lommy is saying take a good look at Cop, but I'm not having any part in that suspicion! - but in a less exaggerated way.

I do see what you mean, actually. I don't think Lommy will be back by DL to say anything about it, however, so I'm hesitant to vote for her today as I haven't really seen anything else about her.

Originally Posted by Cop

Very sure, thank you. But you commenting on that and trying to make it look like a signal does give me something extra to analyse about whether or not you're the Cobbler or a wolf, given that the gist of my comment settled on it being more likely that your statement was a Cobbler or wolf sign. Granted, I haven't suspected you a huge amount yet.

I'm not sure my heart had to work very hard to make it look like a signal, Cop.

Originally Posted by Cop

In that case, I'm planning to vote for Inzil unless something comes up before deadline.

The reason I'm not planning on voting for the other person I suspect right now, G55, is because I like her gut feeling list of suspicions and think it might be from the thought process of an innocent. She's also posted with further analysis. Although the bit where she's said I have "no real suspicions" while...actually pretty much true, does skim over the fact that she was at joint first place in my suspicions, flimsy as those suspicions are.

I'm a little more bothered by this - it's almost as if Cop has locked herself into only considering two people to vote, and isn't really at pains to choose one from the other. It strikes me a bit as someone who doesn't really care too much about their vote.

Originally Posted by McCaber

Right now I'm probably going to vote sally, but I'm willing to give her another hour or so to show up. Silence is most assuredly not golden here, but will just get you a lump of coal in your stocking.

Why Sally, and not Eonwe, who's been just as silent? (note - Eonwe actually did post after this, but the point stands)

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Not in the sense that she's gaining votes, but that peope are sticking suspicion stickers onto her one after the other. A bandwagon of suspicion before the bandwagon of votes.

Well, there's Steve and I, but as far as I know, that's all.

x/d with Cop and Shasta

[Eönwë]

I'm currently considering the idea of Boro-Legate pack, but I'm not sure they'd be that obvious when there're only two of them.

Other than those, I could potentially see myself going for Lommy, McC or Sally. Coppermirror or Nerwen could be possibilities, but only if the other option is someone I haven't mentioned so far.


edit: I completely forgot about Shasta, which is a bit worrying, but then, his most recent post seems quite good, so I probably won't be voting him toDay.

[McCaber]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Why Sally, and not Eonwe, who's been just as silent? (note - Eonwe actually did post after this, but the point stands)

Honestly, he was so quiet I'd forgotten he existed. But seeing as he's contributed since then, he has deferred my wrath toDay.

I've given her an hour, and still nothing.
++sally
Let that be a warning to those who would remain silent.

[Coppermirror]

Possibly the last post from me for the Day. I'd like to go over how my opinion's changed over the past little while in case I'm not around toMorrow to say so.

Sally, Shasta: Have said painfully little. ToMorrow I'd be increasingly suspicious of them.

G55 : No change. I'm still suspicious of her, still not on great grounds. That could change either way if we got to a Day with more substance. I think I'd at least need to examine how she votes toDay. She does seem to be actively participating at the moment, which is good.

Eonwe: Has stayed quiet until just before the end, so I'd be thinking of that as suspicious tomorrow. It is convenient that he's kept himself out of the way as a target of discussion but has shown up just now. I find it a little suspicious that he said my posts so far have been "mostly totally in-character banter", since although there has been plenty of that, I've been making an effort at analysis too for a while now. Other than that, his brief analysis of people looks reasonable to me.

Morsul: No change. Hasn't posted much of any substance, which is a problem. Anyone willing to comment on how Morsul usually plays? I'm not familiar with it.

Nerwen: Not a huge amount of change. Doesn't seem to have contributed a lot to the discussions so far, although her last post was interesting. I'll have to think about that one more before reaching any real conclusions, but my first impression of it did raise my suspicion of her a bit.

Inzil: Voted for him. I'm finding it hard to read his behaviour from after I said I was likely to vote for him. Would have to think about this one more too.

Boro: My initial impression was of innocence. As time goes on I'm not so sure of that, but I still don't have any particular reason to suspect him yet.

McCaber : Has said fairly little, but decided to vote for Sally on the grounds of quietness. That's reasonable, but it could also be a really good vote for a wolf to make.

Lommy - No change. At present she doesn't look particularly suspicious to me.

Legate - Little change from before. I'm still feeling uneasy about them, but I haven't played with them before. I found the exchange between them and Boro about Boro's usual playing style confusing.

I'm quite concerned at how easy it could have been for wolves to stay quiet toDay or to only show up and post near the end, when it was safe.

Edit: cross-posted with the last 4 comments.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I don't like these votes for Sally. You guys can't honestly think Sally all people is the type to remain quiet on purpose, can you? I mean, it's Sally. Honestly, Boro's and McCaber's votes seem a lot like cop-outs to me.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Also, Cop, Legate is male.

[Eönwë]

Ok, well, I've made up my mind.
++Boro

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Chain of events -

Eonwe at #79:

Originally Posted by Eonwe

Boro - Pretty funny so far, but he hasn't given much. So far it looks like he's tried to do a phantom (i.e. force a discussion that he wants) twice, which I don't like out of principle. Of course, that suggest innocence or guilt, but he doesn't feel like the innocent Boro I'm used to.

...

Legate - Asks the moddess useful questions, but of course, this doesn't speak for his innocence or guilt, since the answers benefit every role. I was going to say that this makes him least likely to be a cobbler, but then I realised that this would probably be a really good early-game tactic for a cobbler.

Eonwe at #85:

Originally Posted by Eonwe

-Legate. I'm not really finding him that innocent now that I look over him, but I'm not inclined to single him out for the lynch toDay because he's generating some good discussion at least.

Eonwe at #92:

Originally Posted by Eonwe

I'm currently considering the idea of Boro-Legate pack, but I'm not sure they'd be that obvious when there're only two of them.

Eonwe at #97:

Originally Posted by Eonwe

Ok, well, I've made up my mind.
++Boro

--------

So... this is another vote that looks like it's been carefully set up throughout the day (or the past couple hours, as the case may be.) Hm.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I don't like these votes for Sally. You guys can't honestly think Sally all people is the type to remain quiet on purpose, can you? I mean, it's Sally. Honestly, Boro's and McCaber's votes seem a lot like cop-outs to me.

Well yes...but in times without clear ideas or seeing what anyone is up to, it's usually a safe bet to go for someone up to nothing, especially on Day 1.

For instance, think I'm blind to the fact Legate, Copper, and G55 are up to something...but whether that be good or bad I can't quite determine yet. But given enough time, usually you can tell soon enough.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Really? All I see is an explanation of a Day 1 vote based on a feeling that "Inzil feels lazy." Passable, for Day 1, but I'm curious as to why you're so impressed with it.

Because it has any logical reasoning at all behind it. This Day1 was mighty unproductive at the time that she voted.

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I don't really care for Cop's reason for suspecting G55, and I'm not sure I understand her reason for Inzil. Mind explaining, Cop?

My suspicion of G55 or my suspicion for Inzil, or both?

I explained both of those here:

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

People I'm currently considering voting for:

G55 the Reindeer. Well. I wasn't entirely joking when I suggested that we examined the "Christmas cheer" statements from people. I wondered above whether a Christmas-hating wolf would suggest a snow monument for Suzy Snowflake, and actually, reflecting on that, I think one might. Yes, I know this is super flimsy reasoning. Right now I'm not getting any feelings of "G55 is innocent" from her comments.

Inzil the Snowman. I feel uneasy about Inzil's comments, but I can't put my finger on why, and don't want to make a mistake. He suggested that analysing things too much at this point could be damaging, which is true, especially for the Boro-Nerwen-Lommy thing he was talking about. But we have to analyse based on what we have in front of us, or not at all, so there's no choice. Maybe it was his suggestion that it would harm the Christmas spirit that's bothering me.

As you see, it's not a lot to go by. At the time, looking at G55's comments, she also seemed to not be saying a lot of substance. I found that later on, her comments had more substance to them. I also found that her reasoning on her gut-feeling suspicion list was reasonable, which...

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

The reason I'm not planning on voting for the other person I suspect right now, G55, is because I like her gut feeling list of suspicions and think it might be from the thought process of an innocent. She's also posted with further analysis.

So my suspicion of G55 lessened a bit.

Inzil's posts made me feel suspicious and didn't appear to say much. Since the point I said I intended to vote for him, he's been fairly hard to read and hasn't done anything to change my opinion much. At the very least, voting for the person I suspected the most at the time has allowed me to look at the behaviour of people who have posted afterwards. Better to vote then and allow time for discussion. I hate it when voting comes down to the last minute.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I'm a little more bothered by this - it's almost as if Cop has locked herself into only considering two people to vote, and isn't really at pains to choose one from the other. It strikes me a bit as someone who doesn't really care too much about their vote.

I don't understand your thought process there. Those were the two people I suspected the most, and then one of them did something to make me suspect her less, so I voted for the other one. Why would that make my vote one that I don't care about? I would hate to cast a random vote, which is why I voted for the person I suspected the most.

Edit: cross-posted with Shasta, Boro and B55.

[Inziladun]

Lommy--> Inzil (1)
Legate--> Boro (1) *Not bolded
Cop--> Inzil (2)
Boro--> Sally (1)
McCaber--> Sally (2)
Steve--> Boro (2)

I have to agree with Shasta: there's better choices than Sally.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

So... this is another vote that looks like it's been carefully set up throughout the day (or the past couple hours, as the case may be.) Hm.

It's more that I'd rather Boro than Sally or Zil.

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

For instance, think I'm blind to the fact Legate, Copper, and G55 are up to something...but whether that be good or bad I can't quite determine yet. But given enough time, usually you can tell soon enough.

What, really? That's the first I know about being up to something. I assure you that I have no idea what you're talking about. But thanks for mentioning it - I'll definitely take a look at the posts to try to see what you mean. If you're willing to point out what it is, that would be helpful.

Edit: cross-posted with Inzil, Eonwe.

[Galadriel55]

++Legate


Shasta looks good, and Boro feels slightly better. Steve I still can't decide. Nerwen sounds her typical self. That's for toMorrow.

EDIT: xed with a bunch

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Cop

I don't understand your thought process there. Those were the two people I suspected the most, and then one of them did something to make me suspect her less, so I voted for the other one. Why would that make my vote one that I don't care about? I would hate to cast a random vote, which is why I voted for the person I suspected the most.

I can understand that those were the two you found most suspicious, but it seemed to me that you had decided "Okay, these are the two I'm going to decide between" and basically left everyone else alone. I didn't really see a reason to have narrowed the field to two people so early.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I don't want to vote for any of the top three candidates. Bother.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I don't want to vote for any of the top three candidates. Bother.

Tough luck.

[Inziladun]

Since it doesn't look like anyone's going to go with my top suspect, I have to think of myself here.

++Boro

[Shastanis Althreduin]

++Boro

Voted for Sally, should know better (and I think has, in past games.) That's all I got.

[Boromir88]

Deadline no more posting, please. Moddess will be back in roughly an hour.

I believe that makes me lynched.

I'll make all of you wait on Lottie now. Psh

[Loslote]

Sorry I'm late! Ice skating performances took way longer than I'd thought they would.

Boro has been lynched. He was an ordo. Narration to follow.

[Loslote]

As the sun dipped behind the mountains, staining their snowy peaks orange and purple and red, Christmastown was coming to a decision of sorts.

"Frosty seems absolutely guilty," said Paksu. "He won't even donate his hat to the Suzy Snowflake memorial? What kind of monster is that selfish after a tragedy like this!"

"Guilt hovers over him like the smell of fried fish in a house after you fry fish," moaned the Ghost of Christmas Present. "Frosty the Snowman has a heart of snow, and he'll murder us all if we don't stop him."

"I think it was Little Cindy Lou Who," Olive said. "She was always jealous of Suzy when she was growing up. Resentment grows with age, you know."

Tiny Tim nodded thoughtfully. "She has been awfully quiet toDay," he said. "A guilty conscience?"

"You should know better, Olive," Jack Frost snapped. "You can't pick on Little Cindy Lou Who. That shows a heartlessness matched only by the murderers of poor Suzy! In fact, I'd say you are one of the murderers!"

Santa nodded darkly. "I'm moving you to the darkest corner of the naughty list, Olive," he said.

"Really, Santa?" Rudolph said. "Honestly, you've been getting more and more ridiculous for years now. You've gone mad. It wouldn't surprise me if you were a murderer."

"Nonsense," Valkotukka said, "it's clearly Olive. The only reason she's even in Christmastown is because she forced her way up North because she 'thought Santa meant her' when he said 'all of the other reindeer'. I mean, really, who does that?"

"Olive it is," Frosty said firmly. No one else said a word as Jack Frost froze Olive's paws together. Santa lifted the little dog onto Rudolph's back, and Rodolph flew her out to the middle of a frozen lake and left her. Jack Frost froze a pyramid of ice over her, burying her completely. He left only a small gap at first.

"Did you kill Suzy?" the Sugar Plum Fairy asked.

"No!" Olive said. "You have to believe me!"

"Liar," Jack Frost growled, and froze shut the gap. Not even air could get in - Olive would either suffocate or freeze to death before the Night was over.

Living

Sally - Little Cindy Lou Who
Shasta - Jack Frost
G55 - Rudolph
Coppermirror - The Ghost of Christmas Present
Steve - Valkotukka
Morsul - The Grinch
Nerwen - The Sugar Plum Fairy
Zil - Frosty
McCaber - Tiny Tim
Lommy - Paksu
Legate - Santa Claus

Dead

Lottie - Suzy the Snowflake - Moddess
Boro - Olive the Other Reindeer - Ordo

Night 2...well, it started three and a half hours ago, but if you haven't already, wolves may talk, Seer may dream, and Ranger may send me someone to protect. Wolves, please send me the name an hour before DL so I can write the narration in advance.

[Loslote]

"Poor, poor Olive," chuckled one of the two conspirators as they walked arm in arm down the snowy lane. "My heart just breaks for her!"

"I feel your pain," said the other with a straight face. "I couldn't bear to see her take the fall for our crime."

The two looked at each other with mournful expressions for a moment before bursting into laughter again. "That was fantastic," the first said. "I can't wait to do it again toMorrow."

"Now, now, don't get ahead of yourself," admonished the second. "After all, we still have toNight!"

"Mmm, and won't it be lovely? Now, I have this plan..." the two waltzed off into the darkness.

Meanwhile, as the moon rose and splashed its light through a window, it shone on not one, but two Christmastown inhabitants. The first lay curled up in a ball on the bed, the blanket pulled over his or her head. The only motion was the rise and fall of the blanket. The second sat on a chair nearby, staring intently at the door. There was no thought of sleep in this mind - only of ending this living nightmare.

The door banged open, the two murderers sauntered, laughing, into the room, the first person sat up in bed with a gasp, and the second stood and settled into a solid stance, all in close to the same instant.

"What are you doing here?" asked the first conspirator, shocked.

"To put a stop to this," the guardian said. "You will not kill again toNight."

"What's going on?" whimpered the person in the bed.

"Leave now, and never come back," ordered the guardian.

"Make us," said the second conspirator, smirking.

"Give us the dreamer," ordered the first.

"If you want this kill, come and claim it," the guardian said, confidently.

The two conspirators shifted uneasily. They suddenly noticed the sharp carving knife in the guardian's hand, and the torch he'd just shoved into the fire.

"You know," mumbled the first,

"On second thought," considered the second,

"Kill you later," they both said to the two Christmastowners, and fled the room, scrambling over each other as they went.

"Thank you so much," gasped the person in the bed. "But...who are you?"

"Never mind that," said the guardian. "They might try to kill again toNight. But I don't think they'd come back here." He hopped out an open window, running off into the Night to block the murderer's kills until Dawn.


Living

Sally - Little Cindy Lou Who
Shasta - Jack Frost
G55 - Rudolph
Coppermirror - The Ghost of Christmas Present
Steve - Valkotukka
Morsul - The Grinch
Nerwen - The Sugar Plum Fairy
Zil - Frosty
McCaber - Tiny Tim
Lommy - Paksu
Legate - Santa Claus

Dead

Lottie - Suzy the Snowflake - Moddess
Boro - Olive the Other Reindeer - Ordo

[McCaber]

Good job, ranger!

[Morsul the Dark]

Pretty sweet!

GO Ranger GO!

Wanted to what happened last night missed a big chunk of day sorry Christmas parties and such...

Tomorrow have a few hours and will look into Boro Votes and what else may be seen Good Night... or Morning as it may be in ChristmaWhoville

x'ed

[Coppermirror]

Wow, we got lucky there. Good work, ranger.

I have to leave now, but I wrote up a post last Night. Looks as if I don't need to edit it in response to someone getting killed overNight after all. I'm just going to post it unabridged and head off to do Christmassy things.

Unabridged post:

What a tragedy! I'm terrified.

To think that Boro the Reindeer and [name] have been killed too. Truly, we must work harder to erase the Doom of Christmastown. I think we should beware those who haven't said their piece...but nobody seems to listen to ghosts around here.

Anyway, analysis. I wrote this up overNight, so it isn't up to date and may contain errors. I also didn't have time to finish it, so it only covers a few people, and I'll be so annoyed if one of those gets killed off overNight. Ideally I'd have looked at everyone. But for the people I have covered, I've got a few questions I'd like to have cleared up.

A pity that we lost Boro. Given our odds, it was quite likely that we'd lose an innocent yesterDay, so we can at least be happy that we lost an ordo rather than a gifted. But it really sucks, because Boro looked innocent and was being useful. He was actively participating and even suggesting new ways for people to discuss things.

I was a bit curious about people's choices for suspicion yesterDay, so I went through and counted how many posts each person made. Here's the post count from yesterDay (and a vote count, although not in order of timing):

Sally: 1 post (and no vote!)
Shasta: 10 posts (Voted Boro)
G55: 14 (Voted Legate)
Coppermirror: 14 (Voted Inzil)
Eonwe: 4 (Voted Boro)
Morsul: 6 (and no vote!)
Nerwen: 2 (and no vote!)
Inzil: 14 (Voted Boro)
Boro: 14 (Voted Sally)
McCaber: 6 (Voted Sally)
Thinlomien: 7 (Voted Inzil)
Legate: 7 (Voted Boro)

Accordingly, if we were simply going by voting for the most visible players, the biggest targets should have been...G55, me, Inzil, and Boro-innocent. All of whom came under a decent quantity of suspicion yesterDay, for one reason or another, and Boro who got voted off. I think we've messed up Day 1 rather badly in this regard. On the other hand, what were we supposed to do – suspect people who hadn't posted yet much? McCaber and Boro-innocent both ended up voting for Sally. They were both criticised for doing so, and I can see why. But, maybe they were right to take that tactic.

Three people haven't even voted. All of those people were among those who didn't post much, so there's little to go on there. Morsul mentioned in the admin post that RL things would cause problems for his participation, so I'll give him a free pass on that (although since he's also not going to be around much toDay, heaven help us if he's a wolf). Nerwen and Sally, though...

Given that three people didn't vote and that many people didn't post much at all, toDay I will be very wary of the possibility that all of the wolves could be among the non-voting and not-posting-much people. 5 people posted a decent amount, and 4 of those survived. 7 people remain who didn't post nearly as much.

Inzil

Inzil's voting yesterDay was probably, as he said, to save himself. At the time he voted, three people were tied on 2 votes: Inzil, Sally, and Boro. He said that this was because nobody was going for his top suspect – but he never said who his top suspect was. From what I can tell, his suspects late in the Day were G55, me, and Legate. (That's interesting, incidentally, as Boro-innocent listed those three as people he thought were up to some sort of scheme together.)

Inzil started to suspect me at the point when I said I was voting for him, thinking it was a bandwagon. The reason Inzil appeared to suspect G55 was because she was wanting to pick over the are-they-coded posts in the open. For Legate, the reasoning is as quoted below. None of these seem totally unreasonable reasons, given the low amount of serious discussion yesterDay.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I can respect that, though it still looks opportunistic, much more so than Lommy's.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Legate does seem a littleoff, as in a little more detached and rushed-feeling, and I disagree with his suspicion of Boro. Still, I don't know that's enough grounds for a vote at this point.

Inzil, who is the person you suspected the most yesterDay?

I'm not sure whether I still suspect Inzil. Going through his later posts in more detail and at my leisure, there's actually nothing in particular there which stands out as suspicious. Hmm. Okay, no. I'll revise my opinion: I don't find Inzil nearly as suspicious toDay as I did yesterDay when I voted. If I was voting right now, I wouldn't vote for him (I'd probably vote for McCaber or even a submarine). But this isn't the same as thinking that he's innocent. Though seeing Inzil's reaction was helpful, I do regret that he had to vote for someone else to save himself from a three way tie, since if he is a wolf that would have been great cover for his voting choice.

McCaber

Originally Posted by McCaber

Right now I'm probably going to vote sally, but I'm willing to give her another hour or so to show up. Silence is most assuredly not golden here, but will just get you a lump of coal in your stocking.

Originally Posted by McCaber

Honestly, he [Eonwe] was so quiet I'd forgotten he existed. But seeing as he's contributed since then, he has deferred my wrath toDay.

I've given her an hour, and still nothing.
++sally
Let that be a warning to those who would remain silent.

Something that jumps out at me is that McCaber Tim has been very quiet for someone who decided to vote for someone based on a lack of posting and contributions. McCaber, why didn't you offer any analysis towards the end of the Day? You suggested “Maybe we should look for someone saying "I'm the Cobbler wolves please don't kill me" but you offered very little of substance at all, aside from that, and in fact most of your posts were about how you were going to vote for somebody quiet. I find it suspicious.

And anyone else – is this McCaber's usual playing style?


Sally – nothing to go on. Didn't vote, and only posted once.

Nerwen – hardly anything to go on. Didn't vote, and only posted twice.

Morsul – very little to go on. Didn't vote, and posted 6 times, mostly without substance at the bantering end of the game.

Legate:

Initially, Legate wanted us to look for Cobblers and people trying to respond to them. He didn't have a huge range of suspicions, but did suspect Boro.

Legate's suspicion of Boro-innocent's behaviour was hard to follow, and he ended up voting for Boro-innocent based on that. The vote was the first vote of the Day. If his suspicions were genuine, thinking that Boro was not acting like himself and being “really strangely noncommited at first and somewhat shifty now “ would be sufficient grounds for a vote. But I can't quite understand why Boro seemed shifty to Legate.

Legate, could you explain it a bit more, as concisely as possible?

On gut feelings yesterDay, I had considered Legate suspicious, but now I'm not so sure. But I would like to know more about the suspicion of Boro, even though Boro said that Legate's in the habit of voting for him.

In response to some things yesterDay which I didn't have time to comment on then:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I can understand that those were the two you found most suspicious, but it seemed to me that you had decided "Okay, these are the two I'm going to decide between" and basically left everyone else alone. I didn't really see a reason to have narrowed the field to two people so early.

Oh, okay, I see your reasoning now. But I think you were being too hasty in that line of thought. My vote was placed when the deadline was an hour and a half away. I don't consider that an early vote at all. I did mention about half an hour before I placed my vote that I intended to vote for Inzil, and that gave him a chance to respond. Placing a vote at that time also allowed me to watch and see how people would react, since I ended up being able to stay around to watch until the deadline. I mentioned this before, but I don't like it when all the meat of a Day's discussion is limited to the last few minutes, especially a Day 1.

If I have time later I'll look at yesterDay's posts for Shasta, G55, Eonwe and Thinlomien too, although by the time I get around to it it's likely that we'll have a bunch of new things to analyse. I'm too busy toDay for much.

I should note that I do find it suspicious when people show up close to the end without seeming to try contributing beforehand. Going by that on its own, Eonwe looks the worst.

I don't want to lead everyone off on a wild goose chase, but I'm still really confused about what Boromir was talking about yesterDay when he thought that there was something going on between me, G55 and Legate. Unfortunately he's not here to answer. I thought that maybe he was the cobbler when he posted that, but since he's a proven ordo now, his suspicion must have been genuine. And I have no idea what it could have been based on, which is annoying. Does anybody else have a guess?

Happy Christmas Eve to you all. We must not forget our Christmas cheer, even in these tragic times.

[McCaber]

Voting record:
Lommy--> Inzil (1)
Legate--> Boro (1) *Not bolded
Cop--> Inzil (2)
Boro--> Sally (1)
McCaber--> Sally (2)
Steve--> Boro (2)
G55--> Legate (1)
Inzil--> Boro (3)
Shasta--> Boro (4)

If sally is a wolf, than it's likely that Eonwe would be one too, moving the vote off her to someone else.

Going just off voting records, G55 is looking rather suspicious throwing in a meaningless vote for someone which no chance of getting lynched, which is usually a good way for a wolfpack to not look united.

EDIT: crossed x2

[McCaber]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Inzil's voting yesterDay was probably, as he said, to save himself. At the time he voted, three people were tied on 2 votes: Inzil, Sally, and Boro. He said that this was because nobody was going for his top suspect – but he never said who his top suspect was. From what I can tell, his suspects late in the Day were G55, me, and Legate. (That's interesting, incidentally, as Boro-innocent listed those three as people he thought were up to some sort of scheme together.)

When Boro got that second vote, he was the one put on the chopping block. No one else really suspected Inzil, so I'm not sure there wasn't some ulterior motive. Reasonable enough explanation, but I'm still wondering why he went with Boro over sally.

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Something that jumps out at me is that McCaber Tim has been very quiet for someone who decided to vote for someone based on a lack of posting and contributions. McCaber, why didn't you offer any analysis towards the end of the Day? You suggested “Maybe we should look for someone saying "I'm the Cobbler wolves please don't kill me" but you offered very little of substance at all, aside from that, and in fact most of your posts were about how you were going to vote for somebody quiet. I find it suspicious.

And anyone else – is this McCaber's usual playing style?

Part of that is that I only realized the game had started like three hours before deadline. Part is that there really isn't much to say on Day 1. And part of it is just that I'm not naturally a very talkative person. I'm trying to get better at that, though.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by McCaber

If sally is a wolf, than it's likely that Eonwe would be one too, moving the vote off her to someone else.

Shouldn't you also be considering Zil? He also had two votes by then.

Originally Posted by McCaber

Going just off voting records, G55 is looking rather suspicious throwing in a meaningless vote for someone which no chance of getting lynched, which is usually a good way for a wolfpack to not look united.

She could have potentially got Legate lynched if Zil and Shasta had been on board.

Originally Posted by McCaber

Part of that is that I only realized the game had started like three hours before deadline.

Isn't it bad form to make such a comment?



Anyway, I'll be back in a bit to look at people's suspicions and votes and all of that.