Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLIX - At the Source of Darkness

[Mithalwen]

Seeing as it is you and you are a sidekick down :
http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...0&postcount=92

I don't think I am hallucinating.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

I am sure one of you clever folk will probably spot a gaping hole in my reasoning but would it be completely stupid to lynch Kitanna if we don't get a better idea. We are going to lose her anyway? I know it doesn't get us a wolf (unless she is one) but we can't do any other harm?

That actually sounds like an ok idea. It'd better than going for the 8/9 possiblity of getting an innocent.
The problem is that Day 1 will lose its value even more, until at least Day 3, when it might be already too late. We can't analyse people, as we don't have anything to go on. And this might make Day 2 almost as unproductive as Day 1 (but we will still have the WW kill and possibly the Cobbler Assassin kill). Because we'll have much less to work with, we might, at worst, lose 4 of our number (that's a third) by the beginning of Day 3 (two wrong lynches and two night kills) and then we'd not have many chances left.
On the other hand, even if worse comes to worst, we'd only lose 4 all in all. If we lynch someone else today, who turns out not to be a wolf, but is an innocent then we could at maximum lose 5, which would be devastating for us.

But is it risk we should take? I'm not sure...

edit: x-ed since Lommy #75

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Seeing as it is you and you are a sidekick down :
http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...0&postcount=92

Why did I miss that? I'm sad to hear she can't play...

Anyway, I don't like the idea of voting her. It's a wasted lynch, I think. Firstly, we can't conclude much from the voting. Secondly, we don't need to use our brains. Thirdly, we have a chance to kill a wolf and we should take it. (I'm not saying Kit is not a wolf - even though I very much doubt she is - but there should be a higher chance to get a wolf if we lynch someone suspicious than if we lynch someone of whom we know nothing. Or that's how the game is supposed to work.)

edit: xed with Eönwë

[Eönwë]

The other, obvious problem, is that today we might, just might, lynch a wolf. But it might be better to be on the safe side... hmmm...


edit: x-ed with Lommy again, but this time only her

[the phantom]

Rats! I've lost my business partner!

Okay Mith, as far as your idea about lynching her... hmm....

On one hand I can't imagine that she's gifted, so lynching her would ensure that we didn't have a complete Day 1 disaster.

On the other hand we will lose a chance to catch a baddie.

Now, earlier I said that the goal of a Cobbler is to die during the day, and we have a greater chance of hitting a Cobbler than a Gifted or WW. But that said, lynching a Cobbler today would not be a victory for them as compared to lynching Kitanna, for the loss of Kitanna is already a guarantee! She's going to die. And therefore lynching a Cobbler when a death is already in the bag would surely be a loss for the evil team.

So all in all I think we might want to try our luck and lynch someone else.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Well, darling, we can always just ignore him. Let him say what he wants, we don't have to obey him. As long as he doesn't insist on anyone following his guidelines, I think we can cope with him.

Yes. the phantom is a cobbler even if he doesn't count as one.

[Mithalwen]

I did say if there were no better ideas.. with only 2 wolves there is a chance neither has stuck their furry head above the parapet. However a cobbler or a wolf might think it a waste since they lose the chance to kill an innocent. From the innocents' point of view it is quite good risk management. I think.

It is an option - anything that promotes discussion on a quiet first day has tobe useful surely?

[the phantom]

Ignore me at your own peril, Lommy and Eonwe, for I speak truth, and can be very entertaining.

[Mithalwen]

That is one of the few certainties of Werewolf So would it be premature to apply for the vacancy?

[Gwathagor]

I agree that a lynch should be considered a valuable opportunity to rid ourselves of a wolf, but how often do we get a wolf on the first Day? I don't doubt that it has happened, but never in any of the games I've played in. Most successful lynches occur later on in the game, as a result of the build up of the information necessary to form a case against a wolf, which is not present at the beginning of the game. One could argue that the village merely has better odds of getting a wolf as the game progresses, but I'm not a complete cynic and I don't believe that a successful lynch is purely the result of luck. If we did believe that, we wouldn't bother arguing. So, why risk losing two innocents on the first night, when we could just lynch Kitanna, who we're going to lose anyway, and keep the maximum amount of villagers possible alive as long as possible, thereby buying ourselves time to sift out the wolves?

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Mith

From the innocents' point of view it is quite good risk management.

Okay, let's see here. If we take the lynch in our hands then-
Chance of lynching an Ordo- 53%
Chance of lynching a bad guy- 35%
Chance of complete disaster- 12%

If we lynch Kitanna-
Chance of lynching an Ordo- 0%
Chance of lynching a bad guy- 0%
Chance of complete disaster- 0%

So we reduce the chances of disaster by 12%, and reduce the chances of great victory by 35%. Just looking at those two numbers we should certainly take the lynch.

But what about the possibility of lynching an Ordo? That is the greatest probability. How much do we need to protect our Ordos? What I'm saying is, are Ordos so important that we are willing to pass on a chance to damage the evil side? Hmmm...

Looking at the numbers like this, I can see why the idea is attractive, Mith. It's extremely safe.

[Thinlómien]

It would be silly to vote Kitanna. Werewolf is all about making a difference and we won't make any difference if we vote her. Besides, it would feel just wrong to vote somebody who's going to die anyway.

And speaking of voting, I should vote soon because I still have more than a little homework to do before doing such idle things as watching TV and because I should give Greenie enough time to post, think and vote before she too starts watching TV... Currently I feel like I'll probably vote Noggie who looks very much like a cobbler because no one really looks wolvish to me... but I'll reread and see if I change my mind.

Originally Posted by tp

Ignore me at your own peril, Lommy and Eonwe, for I speak truth, and can be very entertaining.

I will happily agree with the second statement, but I won't buy the first one...

edit: xed with Gwath and tp

[Lalaith]

Here's what I've thought about today:

1. Cobblers are basically cannon-fodder in this game. So brace yourselves, people, for a LOT of false reveals, false wolf-identifications etc.
2. The two wolves may do a number of things. The most obvious is to lie low, hiding in the clouds of chaos they expect the cobblers to kick up.
3. As lots of people have pointed out, Phantom is being autocratic as usual but going over his posts I'm not convinced he means everything he says.
4. Bear in mind Fea has already told us she won't be around until Day 2.

[Mithalwen]

Gwath - there are a dozen or so of us who call ourselves Fenris Wolves because we were lynched first day so it does happen but I don't think we have added to the pack for a while and we do only have 2 wolves - though aided by four fellow travellers. So teh odds are reduced.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

It would be silly to vote Kitanna. Werewolf is all about making a difference and we won't make any difference if we vote her. Besides, it would feel just wrong to vote somebody who's going to die anyway.

I agree - but what difference are we likely to make on the first Day? Historically, innocents get lynched on the first Day. We're already losing one (Kitanna); let's keep the casualties as low as we can.

[Thinlómien]

Voting Kitanna is like giving up. "We can't find any wolves or cobblers, so let's just make it safe." Doesn't really attract me. I dislike that kind of attitude.

Originally Posted by Gwath

I agree that a lynch should be considered a valuable opportunity to rid ourselves of a wolf, but how often do we get a wolf on the first Day? I don't doubt that it has happened, but never in any of the games I've played in.

I've seen it happen more times than it would be mathematically probably so I do believe in our chances of lynching a wolf. And we can always try to lynch a cobbler too. One less of those on our way...

edit: xed with Lalaith, Mith and Gwath

[Lalaith]

Oh, and I agree with the reservations people have about voting Kitanna. Trails of evidence and all that.

[Lalaith]

innocents get lynched on the first Day. We're already losing one (Kitanna

Is this not a bit fishy? Roles had already been allocated when Kitanna left the game. How do you know she is innocent?

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Looking at the numbers like this, I can see why the idea is attractive, Mith. It's extremely safe.

Also TP, the added attraction is that it isn't a total waste of a day. I think we stand a good chance of flushing a cobbler out of covert for the assasin to get a safe kill.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

but going over his posts I'm not convinced he means everything he says.

Indeed.

And another point about lynching Kitanna- has such a thing ever been done?

This may seem like a stupid question, but it makes a difference to me. I'm much more inclined to do something if it's historic.

[Thinlómien]

Oh, by the way, I think Kitanna will become innocent if she's not that already. Meaning that if she is (was?) a wolf or a gifted, her role would be reassigned to some other player as the game has barely started... so her death will probably count as an ordo death at all accounts. Or that's what I would do if I was a mod.

edit: xed with Mith and tp

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Is this not a bit fishy? Roles had already been allocated when Kitanna left the game. How do you know she is innocent?

We won't know until later but l having modded, given that Kitanna hadn't posted, I think it there would be a fair chance that her role (if it were special ) would be reallocated. I have had to do that myself before.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Is this not a bit fishy? Roles had already been allocated when Kitanna left the game. How do you know she is innocent?

I'm assuming, but I don't know for sure. It may be a stupid assumption, but the odds are that she is innocent.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by tp

This may seem like a stupid question, but it makes a difference to me. I'm much more inclined to do something if it's historic.

I so much hope tp is not the seer, because if he thinks like that, our seer will soon be revealing himself (while it's still Day1) and just one ordo he has dreamt of just because no one has been stupid enough to do that before...

Anyway, I didn't have the time or the energy to actually reread, so I'm just voting..

++Nogrod

...and going to my much beloved Swedish books and handing the mouse & keyboard over to Greenie...

edit: xed with Mith and Gwath

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Indeed.

And another point about lynching Kitanna- has such a thing ever been done?

This may seem like a stupid question, but it makes a difference to me. I'm much more inclined to do something if it's historic.

I don't think so but I doubt the mods would object. It is the least distorting way of resolving the issue but these are unusual circumstances because of the assasin. Lynching is not the only way this village can weed out the baddies.

[Lalaith]

Lommy, Mith - I get your point about the mods probably reallocating Kitanna's role if she had one. But I am not happy about Gwath being so *sure*. A pity, because I was feeling quite trusting of him before that.

[Mithalwen]

I wouldn' t fret about that Lal becasue no one can be sure of someone's innocence as far as I can make out . THe wolves know each other but they don't know if the others are ordo or cobbler. The seer similarly can only tell wolf or non wolf. The cobblers, as I read it don't know each other's identity. Ordos know nothing for certain. Even the assasin with a failed kill cannot be certain if the target was wolf or ordo.

Which leads us with a lot of suspicion.....

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm lost, but here's what I've gathered so far:

Kitanna quit the game, some people want to lynch her to keep innocent casualties down, some don't want to. I can see both sides of the argument, but I'm nearly positive (as some have said) that she will end up an Ordo. So it makes the most sense to me to execute her and lose one Ordo rather than execute someone (anyone, at this stage, has the greatest chance to be an Ordo) and have her modkilled.

++Kitanna

Pardon my haste. I just moved back into college and am getting back into the swing of things, just bear with me..

Edit: X'd with Mith.

[Durelin]

All voting Kitanna does is prolong the game by a Day. It just seems rather silly to me.

Both Gwath and Lalaith bother me now. Gwath's done a good bit of back-and-forth-ing already (not sure how to explain...debating more than others in that he doesn't seem to drop things as quickly, maybe), and Lalaith's "fishy" comment feels like an easy stir up of things.

Lommy feels off, but I don't know why. Maybe it's just that she seems rushed, which she was.

Originally Posted by Mith

THe wolves know each other but they don't know if the others are ordo or cobbler.

Good point...and the wolves will want to be a good bit more careful about killing off their cobblers in this game, with so many of them and only two wolves.

Edit: Crossed with Shasta.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

But I am not happy about Gwath being so *sure*. A pity, because I was feeling quite trusting of him before that.

Bother. I am not "sure." But the odds are very good that she is innocent. And, if she is a wolf or a cobbler, then we are still losing an innocent toDay because her role has to be reassigned. So let's lynch her and avoid losing a second innocent. We don't have enough information to form a substantial case against anyone else.

I really hate to be a pessimist, but first Days are bad news in my experience.

[Gwathagor]

Ok, well, I guess I should just practice what I preach.

++Kitanna

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Gwath

We don't have enough information to form a substantial case against anyone else.

And if we all hold hands and all together kill someone who's already dead anyway what more information will we have tomorrow? Who said something about just sitting around and agreeing with each other was very dangerous in this game? Well I think it's always very dangerous... It's very easy, and that's the whole problem.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Durelin

Good point...and the wolves will want to be a good bit more careful about killing off their cobblers in this game, with so many of them and only two wolves.

.

And that means that the innocent and gifted may cultivate a low level of suspicion to increase their chances of surviving the night ... hard line to walk.

[Nogrod]

Reporting for duty... (I just got home from the choir rehersals and haven't have time to even peek at the thread since I left.)

*goes back to read*

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Durelin

And if we all hold hands and all together kill someone who's already dead anyway what more information will we have tomorrow?

A wolf kill, a seers dream and an assasin's essai .. of course not all of these may be public... We are only prolonging this by a day if we lynch Kitanna if we would otherwise have had a perfect strike rate - but the maximum game length is shortened if we don't lynch Kitanna because there is one less person. I like your confidence but don't share it. An accountant's soul is mine - must always be prudent and anticipate losses but not profits.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Durelin

And if we all hold hands and all together kill someone who's already dead anyway what more information will we have tomorrow?

There's always more information on the second Day, which, I'm arguing, is one reason the likelihood of a successful lynch increases after the first Day.

[A Little Green]

Okay, I'm here (And quark stars for sale!) - and I think we should definitely not lynch Kitanna. We will have much less to go on with toMorrow if we lynch practically no one toDay. I for one wouldn't much like another Day 1 -style Day. Just compare - if we lynch Kit, all we can analyse toMorrow are toDay's posts (that are not too many) and the Night's kill (that will most probably be very traceless and difficult to draw conclusions from). If we lynch someone else, we have all the voting stuff (possible bandwagons, possible strange last minute votes, people's suspicions and reasons for voting etc.) to analyse toMorrow in addition to the Night's kill. So yes, I think we really should make a proper lynch toDay.

As for who I could lynch - I think Gwathie looks a bit fishy at the moment, as does Shasta who pops in and makes an easy, neat vote that will not irritate anyone. I'm torn about Mith, since she seems innocent in one way (I don't think a wolf or a cobbler would come up with the idea of lynching Kit), but in another she does not (I think she is clever enough to actually bluff it, and I have a bad feeling about her overall).

At the moment, Brinn and Lal seem innocentish. Also, I don't think Nog is a cobbler - true, he has been more cheerful and confusing than usual, but I think it's just that he's a bit too absorbed in his character..


EDIT: x-ed since Gwathy's vote

[Mithalwen]

Well I think there is a good chance at least one our wolves is keeping a low profile today. Given that quiet folk are so often given the benefit of the doubt day one, I am really tempted to go with Kitanna. The assasin can pick off the cobblers, are you folk who are anti so confident you are going to get a wolf and not the seer or assassin? Big risk to my mind.

[A Little Green]

I'll have to vote very soon and I'm really at a loss. I think lynching Kit is a silly idea, so I'll vote for the one who strikes me as the most suspicious. (Of whom I'm not sure yet..)

Originally Posted by Mith

A wolf kill, a seers dream and an assasin's essai .. of course not all of these may be public... We are only prolonging this by a day if we lynch Kitanna if we would otherwise have had a perfect strike rate - but the maximum game length is shortened if we don't lynch Kitanna because there is one less person.

Yes - a wolf kill (at least I never can draw much conclusions on the first wolf kill) and possibly an assassin kill (that will rid us of one cobbler but provide us with little else). The seer dream will probably not affect toMorrow that much - and it's toMorrow I'm concerned about. True, the game will be "safer" if we go for Kit, but much more interesting and enjoyable to play if we don't play it safe but actually do something so that we really will have something to do and to analyse toMorrow.


EDIT: x-ed with Mith

[A Little Green]

Okay, I'll vote

++ Gwathie

because he gives me an overall fishy feeling. (Also, as I don't want us to waste one Day for lynching Kit, I'll vote for the one of my suspects I guess others might vote as well.)

Menelvagors, quark-stars, and pocket supernovas for sale! And the teddy bears.

Good night.