Werewolf IX: the Saga Owns You and You Know It

[mormegil]

I will vote

++KATH

one other reason to add is that she voted for my other suspect (Menel) which makes me think she is trying to throw our attention to him, who many have mentioned, thus avoiding the noose today herself.

[Glirdan]

I see some of you have accused my of being a werecreature. Why would I kill one of my best customers who is also one of my dearest friends. As for the Llama, I like llama's. They're cute and cuddly and I would never do anything to harm Shelob.

As for me being hasty in voting for Wayne. I take that back. I will not vote for Wayne. I was just in grief and shock after the death of poor Enca and he was the only one who made me suspicous of anybody.

The phantom convinced me that he is no werecreature or cobbler.

I will not vote for Bergil until he has said something. If he hasn't said anything I might vote for him.

Kittana is making me suspicious because of her saying that voting for Bergil is "utterly ridiculous". She might get my vote.

Menel and Alcarillo both seem inocent. People are accusing Menel due to the fact that he's the zoo-keeper. Our dear mayor hasn't done anything of great suspicon today and I see no point in voting for him.

Wilwa, Folwren, Holby and Shelob all seem inocent to me.

TGWBS casting his vote for Alcarillo seems a little suspicous to me. Maybe he's the wolf, wants to get rid of the current mayor and become mayor instead. He is on the list.

The rest are all to silent to vote for. I will wait a little longer before casting my vote.

[the phantom]

Mr. Saucepan, your assesment of my behavior is correct. I am certainly not the cobbler or bear- wolf is the only possibility, and that possibility is slim seeing as I have attracted attention to myself- which puts me high up on the seer's list to dream about at night. Logically, only someone with nothing to hide would put forth an attention getting plan on the first day.

I don't have too much time right now (I'm trying to divide my attention between this and my daily duties), but someone might want to take a look back at reactions to me. As Saucy said, to the werecreatures I am "a potentially dangerous opponent", so would that make the beasts try to get me lynched?

On the other hand, they might try and buddy up to me during the day in hopes that I would ignore them.

I have more to say before the day is done, but I will wait a bit. I'm not sure if I will vote or not. It depends on who is on the chopping block, whether or not my vote will matter, and if I feel inclined to lynch someone over someone else (which isn't likely, seeing as we have no concrete evidence at this time).

Also, keeping the votes low might help find the wolves. You see, when the voting is very close, the wolves feel more pressure to help out one of their fellows if he/she has a couple votes. Where as, if one person has nine votes and the second place vote getter has only three, if the person with three is a wolf then the other wolves know he/she is safe because the other person is so far ahead.

Perhaps I'm not explaining terribly well, but I think you understand what I am getting at. Having multiple candidates rather than one bandwagon vote-getter sometimes makes the individual votes more meaningful (more telling).

[Holbytlass]

I stand by my decision earlier and I have some major scooping to do for the next three hours, so I vote now.


++BERGIL

As I don't find The Phantom suspicious at all or any of the others mentioned for being quiet as profoundly suspicious.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Cailin

Glirdan is my main suspect. He has been pointing fingers a lot, especially to the quiet, inexperienced ones, and seems to want to be good friends with everybody, agreeing and nodding a lot, changing his mind randomly...

Very true. However, I have a feeling that he is just an excitable chap who is eager to contribute and to agree with what others say. He's not off my list, but I shall probably give him the benefit of the doubt today.

Another two who fit the pattern of contributing regularly without saying too much are Alcarillo and Shelob.

Shelob voted first and voted for the phantom. I have a feeling that the phantom is innocent (although nothing is certain at this stage). There had been much suspicion voiced about the phantom and it is possible that Shelob was trying to start a bandwaggon against a formidable opponent.

Alcarillo accused Wayne when he was top of many people's suspicion list, but then voted for Bergil when he saw the accusations against him massing. He may well be a beast trying to hide his vote amongst someone that he thinks other villagers will vote for.

So my current suspicion list is:

Kath
Meneltarmacil
Glirdan
Shelob
Alcarillo

Quite a long list, but that is to be expected at this stage.

As I said, I'm prepared to give Glirdan the benefit of the doubt to-Day. I am also willing to forego voting for Kath to-Day as her explanation for urging people to vote for the phantom was a good one.

Hmm, I shall have to ponder which one of the remaining three suspects will gain my vote to-Day.

[Glirdan]

Seeing as I have to go tend to my cheese shop, I will cast my vote now. I will give Kitanna a break today an dvote for... ++Bergil

Good night everyone. If Bergil is innocent and gets the noose, I will be sorely upset that I was part of the group that condemned him to this fate. Good night to everyone.

[SamwiseGamgee]

Originally Posted by mormegil

I find all this talk of the phantom to be a bit ridiculous. I cannot really believe him to be a werecreature or the cobbler. No I've spent some time with the fellow during my stay in this twisted little village and I have to say that no matter what he does he appears suspicious. So the fact that he appears 'normal' seems a good sign that he's innocent. So I'm pretty sure that he's not guilty. If anything the only thing I find cobblerish is that his normal behavior took up so much talk for one day. Now I would envision a cobbler phantom being a bit more subtle till near the end. I think his idea is somewhat sound and understandable. Basically he is asking the bear to benefit him/herself and the village as well. I don't think the cobbler would ask the bear to kill the werewolves (remember he would be on their team really). So let's stop diverting our attention from the real issue and get off this mentioning the phantom in nearly every post.

Is it just me, or does that seem a little werewolfish. It really does seem like he's accusing and yet defending at the same time. Very wolfish. And, as SpM said, the only real possibility for the phantom is werewolf. Are the two perhaps working in unison? I wonder.

Edit: Italics not working as anticipated

[Kitanna]

Kitanna is making me suspicious because of her saying that voting for Bergil is "utterly ridiculous". She might get my vote.

Oh yes, I must be a wolf because I find it unfair to lynch someone who has not yet defended himself. Despite the fact of course there could have been RL problems, no no, I must be suspicious because RL problems of another player should not be taken into account here.

I care not what anyone thinks. I would rather see Bergil defend himself before throwing a vote out for him. Should he live past today and remains silent tomorrow then I will most likely vote for him, but until that time I will not do such a thing.

[SamwiseGamgee]

Quick double post, I know, but after some cross posting I went back and noticed that mormegil voted for Kath immediately after Menel, and with almost no reasoning. That looks rather wolfish to me.

[The Saucepan Man]

I am very suspicious of all these votes for Bergil - someone who has not even had the opportunity to defend himself. And it seems very un-Wolf/Bear-like to me to say absolutely nothing on the first day. It is bound to attract suspicion (as indeed it has).

Alcarillo started the votes against Bergil having already received a vote himself and knowing (on the basis of accusations already voiced) that others would probably vote for Bergil too. So, for the reasons stated above and to try to prevent what I perceive as a possible injustice against Bergil, I will cast my vote for:

++ALCARILLO

I am not saying that Bergil is innocent. Merely that he ought to have an opportunity to defend himself before we string him up.

If Alcarillo is hanged and found to be guilty, or if Bergil is lynched and found to be innocent, I think that we should all take a very close look at those who have voted to-Day for Bergil.

[Kitanna]

I have read through Glirdan's post and he has made his way to my suspects list. He seems rather fickle, which is not a reason to string him up, but it bears looking into.

He starts out with SpM and Morm on his list of suspects. Then he says he believes the phantom's plan is werecreaturish, but says he has no suscipions of him. In that same post he says that Wayne is is suspect for his toothy comment. Yet he gives no reason as to why he changed his mind about Morm and SpM.

I don't have time highlight everything, but he did say this about Bergil and Gil.

And I'm not voting for anybody until we've heard from them.

And yet you vote for Bergil...strange.

For that I will now cast my vote. My picking randomly method is out and I have decided upon

++ Glirdan

[the phantom]

And, as SpM said, the only real possibility for the phantom is werewolf. Are the two perhaps working in unison? I wonder.

No.

If I was a wolf I would not have allowed my fellow wolf to defend me, and I imagine that if SP was a wolf he would refrain from defending a fellow wolf- particularly when the need is not desperate (I only have one vote, so it doesn't look like I need to be saved).

Now, how about some pre-night strategy?

Most people have accepted at this point that it is unlikely that I am guilty. This makes me a target tonight because wolves usually try to keep the most suspicious villagers around (in other words, they kill the ones most provably innocent).

Also, I'm a pretty smart guy, so that also would make the wolves want to kill me.

Third, it is possible that the seer will dream of me tonight or the next night. Though the seer likely believes I am innocent (as most people do), he/she will probably want to be sure because of my reputation for being a formidable foe. If the seer dreams of me, I will become a proven innocent- something that can really hurt the wolves.

The wolves know that if enough proven innocents are floating around, the village will win, because if the village absolutely has to it will institute a mass lynching enforced by the proven innocents.

Now, if I am found to be innocent but I am killed during the night, the seer's dream has been rendered useless. Therefore, the fact that the seer is likely to dream of me makes the wolves REALLY want me dead.

So, I would like to make a suggestion. Seer- go ahead and dream of me. If you are able to later move me to "proven innocent" status it will be helpful to the village.

Ranger- guard me tonight. The wolves want to kill me because I am smart and I might soon be a proven innocent, so it might be worth your effort to keep me safe tonight.

Just imagine- what if the wolves decide to kill me and are foiled?! No wolf kill! That would be excellent!

And I hear you saying, "Well, they won't try now that they think you're going to be guarded."

I'm not so sure. I think that they may very well out think themselves and think, "Since the Ranger thinks the wolves won't kill Phantom, he/she'll probably guard someone else, thus leaving Phantom open." And then they will try to kill me.

Werebear- tonight, kill whoever you think is a werewolf. If you're wrong (you probably will be) then you still win because you will kill a villager, so you have nothing to lose.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Originally Posted by Cailín

Azaelia of Willowbottom... a bad feeling. I can't help it. Too innocent with all her cute little flowers.

I can't help the occupation I chose before any of us knew our roles in the village. What can I say? I like flowers. Maybe I should be suspicious of you because you constantly crochet? It comes to the same thing, all arts and crafts-y.

I'd feel bad about voting for Bergil because he hasn't been able to defend himself. I think that probably all the werewolves are out there, actively posting already. It's beyond me at this early point to decipher who is hiding a fanged and furry secret, though. So unless Bergil shows up in the next 15 minutes, I may vote for him.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Just thought I'd make up a list of votes...

Alcarillo-3 (TGWBS, Wayne, Sauce)
Bergil-3 (Alacrillo, Wilwa, Holbytlass)
Meneltarmacil-1 (Kath)
Kitanna-1 (Gil)
Glirdan-2(Cailin, Kitanna)
Kath-2(Nenel, Mormegil)

And add me to the

++Bergil group just because it's 7:29 and I don't know what else to do.

[Encaitare]

"Sorry, Bergil," the villagers said as they fastened a noose around his neck. "We don't really have any reason to suspect you... but hey, that's they way things go sometimes, isn't it? Some days you're the dog, and some you're the tree." Bergil did not look comforted at all.

"It's not fair!" he said as he stood upon the rickety gallows which he had built himself some time ago.

"It is pretty ironic," the villagers giggled. "But someone's got to die toDay, because that's how it is."

One of them pulled the lever that let the trapdoor fall open, and Bergil fell. So did the entire gallows, pulled apart by the jerk his body made on the rope. The lumber collapsed on him, and there was silence.

"Should we see if he's alive?" they wondered. Cautiously, they lifted the fallen pieces of wood away. Underneath was a blood-covered, clearly dead, and clearly ordinary corpse.

"Someone had better build a new gallows," the villagers muttered as they went off to bed.

~*~*~*~*~

Living:

Folwren
Shelob
Holbytlass
the guy who be short
Meneltarmacil
WaynetheGoblin
wilwarin538
Alcarillo
Durelin
Saucepan Man
Kath
the phantom
Azaelia of Willowbottom
Cailín
Nilpaurion Felagund
Kitanna
mormegil
Gil-Galad
SamwiseGamgee
Glirdan

The Deceased:

Encaitare (Moderator) - Stuck full of quills by Wolves on NIGHT 1
Llama (Mammal) - Mauled into oblivion by Black Beorning on NIGHT 1
Bergil (Ordinary Villager) - Crushed under the gallows on DAY 1

It is now NIGHT 2. I need names from the Wolves, Bear, Seer, Hunter, and Guardian. Wolves may PM; Shirriffs must stop.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Durelin, but her (really late) vote did not affect the outcome of the lynching.

[Encaitare]

DAY 2

The villagers awoke the next morning with some trepidation. As each ate a quick breakfast, he or she hoped that the Werecreatures had not struck again. But when they gathered in the village square, they realized that not one, not two, but three of the villagers were not present: the guy who be short, SamwiseGamgee, and Kitanna.

They went first to SamwiseGamgee’s house…

The previous night, the guy who be short sat in his house, sharpening his various weapons. “I’m almost sure who one of those wolves is… it’s got to be SamwiseGamgee!” he said to himself. “And I’m going to make sure that he doesn’t plague this village anymore!” Stealthily, he sneaked out his back door and over to Samwise’s house.

When he got there, he threw the door open, brandishing his sword Sintúril, Flame of the Short. “Ha-hah!” he shouted. “You wolfish fiend! Behold, I shall slay thee!” Samwise tried to defend himself, but TGWBS overpowered and killed him.

TGWBS had triumphed – but then he thought, “If he was a wolf, why didn’t he change? Oh no!” He realized that he had killed an innocent! In anguish he returned home.

“Oh no!” was what the villagers also thought as they ran to TGWBS’s home. They found his body surrounded by weapons; it seemed the wolves had impaled him on his own sword. On the floor next to him was written (by a wolfish paw, it appeared), SPILLER OF INNOCENT BLOOD.

Finally, they went to Kitanna’s little house on the outskirts of town. They never thought that Kitanna had liked them all very much, not since they had pointed out to her that there was no such thing as the “cable TV” she had always blathered on about.

None of them had even been inside Kitanna’s home before, so the décor quite astounded them. Upon the walls were angry statements, such as STUPID VILLAGERS, I HOPE THEY ALL DIE and WERECREATURES RULE and CABLE IS SO MUCH BETTER THAN SATELLITE. In the next room was Kitanna’s body – and just her body. Her severed head was placed inside a box with the front removed so that her face stared out at them. Yet the villagers seemed even more baffled by the strange messages.

“What does it mean?” they wondered. “Cable? Satellite?”

“Maybe she didn’t like the moon,” one suggested. “And she liked… string.”

“No, dummy, she can’t have not liked the moon if she was on the Werecreatures’ side,” another countered. “But the string… you may have a point there.”

“What a stupid anachronism,” someone finally said, and they all nodded in agreement.

Living:

Folwren
Shelob
Holbytlass
Meneltarmacil
WaynetheGoblin
wilwarin538
Alcarillo
Durelin
Saucepan Man
Kath
the phantom
Azaelia of Willowbottom
Cailín
Nilpaurion Felagund
mormegil
Gil-Galad
Glirdan

The Deceased:

Encaitare (Moderator) - Stuck full of quills by Wolves on NIGHT 1
Llama (Mammal) - Mauled into oblivion by Black Beorning on NIGHT 1
Bergil (Ordinary Villager) - Crushed under the gallows on DAY 1
SamwiseGamgee (Ordinary Villager) – Killed by Hunter on NIGHT 2
TGWBS (Hunter) – Impaled by Wolves on NIGHT 2
Kitanna (Cobbler) – Given a TV closeup by Black Beorning on NIGHT 2

It is now DAY 2. Wolves, stop PMing. Shirriffs may communicate. Have at it, villagers!

[Gil-Galad]

Originally Posted by Azaelia of Willowbottom

And add me to the

++Bergil group just because it's 7:29 and I don't know what else to do.

woah... well i find Azaelias post, she could be a werewolf trying to join the crowd with Bergil... shes on my suspicons list

[Gil-Galad]

everyone that voted for Bergil is now on my suspects list

Alacrillo, Wilwa, Holbytlass, Azaelia

and about my vote for Kitanna, my suspicons were right, she was the cobbler and thought that Bergil might be a werewolf... well those four are on my suspects list

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

When the plot thickens, boy, does it thicken! Hunter and cobbler revealed and killed on the second night!

woah... well i find Azaelias post, she could be a werewolf trying to join the crowd with Bergil... shes on my suspicons list

I assure you, I am innocent. I was working on making up a list of who had voted for who when I looked at the clock and had a heart attack because I had one minute left to vote. I picked Bergil because I had no suspicions of anyone, and I knew nothing about him. He had not even shown his face. I was reluctant to kill anyone who had made input because I didn't know enough about anyone. It was a last-second, random choice, fueled by the necessity of time, and one that I regretted the instant that I made it.

That being said, Alcarillo is now on my suspicion list. He led the voting for Bergil...And TGWBS was killed by werewolves. Those two have always had something of a political rivalry, and TGWBS even voted for Alcarillo...Or perhaps we're just being invited to draw an incorrect connection by the Wolves.

[Gil-Galad]

oddly enough, heres the list with 1 being the highest suspicons

1.Alacrillo
2.Holbytlass
3.Wilwa
4.Azaelia

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Yeah, that's pretty much mine, too. (If you ignore #4, that is)...just because I don't have anything better to go on than voting order at this point. I really want to see what those three have to say about their motives.

[Alcarillo]

Originally Posted by Azaelia of Willowbottom

That being said, Alcarillo is now on my suspicion list. He led the voting for Bergil...And TGWBS was killed by werewolves. Those two have always had something of a political rivalry, and TGWBS even voted for Alcarillo...Or perhaps we're just being invited to draw an incorrect connection by the Wolves.

The wolves frame me! I understood tgwbs vote against me as a half-baked guess based merely on role-playing, and I would not be so bold as to kill my obvious political rival. It also seems too bold for all the wolves to vote for one single person. Bergil was just a casualty of the unknown of the first day. And at least we didn't kill a loud innocent.

[mormegil]

Shelob voted Phantom
TGWBS voted Alcarillo
Alcarillo voted Bergil
Wilwarin voted Bergil
Wayne voted Alcarillo
Kath voted Meneltarmacil
Gil-Galad voted Kitanna
Cailin voted Glirdan
Meneltarmacil voted Kath
Mormegil voted Kath
Holbytlass voted Bergil
Glirdan voted Bergil
Saucepan Man voted Alcarillo
Kitanna voted Glirdan
Azaelia voted Bergil
Durelin voted Bergil (I believe but deleted that post???)

Did not vote
The phantom
Bergil
Nilpaurion Felagund
Folwren
Samwisegamgee

I find it interesting that Durelin removed her vote with no explanation. Would you like to state anything now?

Also all who voted for Bergil
Alcarillo
Wilwarin
Holbytlass
Glirdan
Azaelia
Durelin

I really cannot understand why you would vote for him. Nilp didn’t speak either and there was not mention of lynching him at all. I suspect somebody to be a wolf in there if not more. Holbytlass’s, Glirdan’s and Azaelia’s votes were at critical times When Bergil and Alcarillo were tied they came along and put a lot of distance between the two. But I don’t think we should eliminate anyone from that list for now. Though our cobbler thought Glirdan to be innocent, I believe, though that really doesn’t mean much.

I’m still highly suspicious of Kath and somewhat of Menel.


ps 1000 post

[WaynetheGoblin]

I think WILWA AND ALCARRILLO right now. They voted for bergil.

[Meneltarmacil]

What a tragedy. Three people dead (though at least we're rid of the Cobbler). What is this town coming to?

I notice that Azaelia's vote did put Bergil in the majority when the deadline was close and both he and Glirdan were about to be lynched. She does seem a little wolfish to me, but I think her defense of herself makes sense as well and therefore I'm going to reserve judgement for now.

And as for Alcarillo, the wolves may just have been trying to frame him, or he may be a double-bluffing wolf. (However, I doubt the latter is the case)

Glirdan, though, seems to have changed his mind on a lot of things and several people voted for him yesterDay. I think he may be up to something.

[Alcarillo]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Nilp didn’t speak either and there was not mention of lynching him at all.

Kath notified us of Nilp's abscence in the discussion thread.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, I hate to say I told you so, but ...

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

... to try to prevent what I perceive as a possible injustice against Bergil ...

It was foolish to vote for him. Quite apart from the fact that he did not have any opportunity to defend himself, his death tells us very little because he said nothing yester-Day.

Anyway, here's how the voting went yester-Day (in order):

1. Shelob for the phantom (TP - 1)
2. TGWBS for Alcarillo (TP - 1; Alcarillo -1)
3. Alcarillo for Bergil (TP - 1; Alcarillo - 1; Bergil - 1)
4. Wilwarin for Bergil (TP - 1; Alcarillo - 1; Bergil - 2)
5. Wayne for Alcarillo (TP - 1; Alcarillo - 2; Bergil - 2)
6. Kath for Meneltarmacil (TP - 1; Alcarillo - 2; Bergil - 2; Menel - 1)
7. Gil-Galad for Kitanna (TP - 1; Alcarillo - 2; Bergil - 2; Menel - 1; Kitanna - 1)
8. Cailin for Glirdan (TP - 1; Alcarillo - 2; Bergil - 2; Menel - 1; Kitanna - 1; Glirdan - 1)
9. Menel for Kath (TP - 1; Alcarillo - 2; Bergil - 2; Menel - 1; Kitanna - 1; Glirdan - 1; Kath - 1)
10. Mormegil for Kath (TP - 1; Alcarillo - 2; Bergil - 2; Menel - 1; Kitanna - 1; Glirdan - 1; Kath - 2)
11. Holbytlas for Bergil (TP - 1; Alcarillo - 2; Bergil - 3; Menel - 1; Kitanna - 1; Glirdan - 1; Kath - 2)
12. Glirdan for Bergil (TP - 1; Alcarillo - 2; Bergil - 4; Menel - 1; Kitanna - 1; Glirdan - 1; Kath - 2)
13. The Saucepan Man for Alcarillo (TP - 1; Alcarillo - 3; Bergil - 4; Menel - 1; Kitanna - 1; Glirdan - 1; Kath - 2)
14. Kitanna for Glirdan (TP - 1; Alcarillo - 3; Bergil - 4; Menel - 1; Kitanna - 1; Glirdan - 2; Kath - 2)
15 Azaelia for Bergil (TP - 1; Alcarillo - 3; Bergil - 5; Menel - 1; Kitanna - 1; Glirdan - 2; Kath - 2)
16. Durelin for The Saucepan Man (TP - 1; Alcarillo - 3; Bergil - 5; Menel - 1; Kitanna - 1; Glirdan - 2; Kath - 2; SpM - 1)

Did not vote:

Bergil
Folwren
Nilpaurion
SamwiseGamgee
The phantom

Something else I said yester-Day:

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

If Alcarillo is hanged and found to be guilty, or if Bergil is lynched and found to be innocent, I think that we should all take a very close look at those who have voted to-Day for Bergil.

That certainly seems to be the case today. Although some seem to be picking on only some of the villagers who voted for Bergil.

*Glares at Gil-Galad and WaynetheGoblin*

Why didn't you include Glirdan in your list, Gil. And why did you only mention wilwarin and Alcarillo, Wayne?

Clearly, not all of those who voted for Bergil are guilty. But I do believe that at least one Wolf (and, if they were being particularly bold, possibly two) voted for him. He was a reasonably "safe" vote, at the outset of voting at least. He did not speak yester-Day and therefore few conclusions could be drawn against those voting for him.

But let's look at each one:

Alcarillo was the first to vote for Bergil (although a number of villagers had already indicated that they might vote for him). At that stage, Alcarillo already had a vote against him, so he may have been voting to save his furry skin. Then again, I doubt that a Wolvish Alcarillo would have killed TGWBS, who voted for him yester-Day. TGWBS's death was probably a clumsy attempt at a frame-up by the Wolves. Despite voting for him yester-Day, therefore, I am less inclined to think Alcarillo a Wolf to-Day (although, like anyone, he could be the Bear).

Wilwarin voted for Bergil to put him ahead of Alcarillo in the voting. Very suspicious if Alcarillo's a Wolf. Still somewhat suspicious even if not.

Holbytlas voted for Bergil to put him ahead of Alcarillo and Kath on the votes. Much the same applies as with wilwarin, with the added possibility that, if Kath is a Wolf, Holbytlas might have been voting to save her.

Glirdan voted for Bergil to give him a clear lead in the lynching stakes, having said that he would not vote for someone he had not heard from (and also having spent most of yester-Day flip-flopping between suspects). He remains very suspicious in my eyes.

Azaelia sealed Bergil's fate with her vote, having said that the Werewolves were probably all posting. Apparently, she panicked. A very strange panic vote. Surely better to vote for someone who stood no chance of lynching. But in her favour, if she was a Wolf, she would have known that Bergil was innocent (of Wolvery) and unlikely to be the Bear and that her vote would therefore attract suspicion to-Day.

My top suspects at the start of Day 2 are therefore:

Glirdan
Holbytlas
Wilwarin
Alcarillo
Azaelia.

[Gil-Galad]

i was going by Azealia's account of votes, i'm lazy alright


1.Alacrillo
2.Holbytlass
3.Glirdan
4.Wilwa
5.Azaelia

[Holbytlass]

I'd like to point out that even though I was the 3rd person to vote for Bergil, I was the first to say definitely who I was voting for, so it appears that the others are bandwaggoning. Again, I chose Bergil because he said nothing and had no prior excuse. I feel bad that he was innocent, which statistically he would be, but I am glad he at least wasn't a gifted.

Looking over everyone's statements yesterday, the three main ones that 'red flagged' were
Wilwarin she seems to be aligning herself with me

Cailin she's all over the board with her suspicions and accusations, is most suspicious of Menel based on "pointedly" by Folwren. Which I found to be nothing substantial than votes Glirdan.

Glirdanmostly suspicious of Wayne and Phantom and then Kittana but out of no where votes Bergil.

If I'm correct in my assumptions, then Wilwarin and Glirdan bandwagons on Bergil and Cailin votes for Glirdan to throw off suspicion when he isn't likely to be lynched.

[Folwren]

But it doesn't make sense that the wolves should vote for Bergil...he said nothing, therefore he was no danger to anybody. Why didn't they shoot at people who had accused them? The Phantom seems too dangerously smart for the wolves and bear to keep him alive. TGWBS was likely killed last night instead of being short because people know he's a good thinker, too. Why would they vote for Bergil? He was totally, and completely harmless to the wolves as long as he kept silent and said nothing.

However, as little as all that makes sense, my doubt still lies with Alcarillo. And because I have no time to say more (they were supposed to stay down watching that movie for another half hour, blast it, and now we have to clean up), I'll have to try to say my say tomorrow morning.

But I'm telling you, Alcarillo seems very, very questionable in my eyes.

-- Folwren

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Gil-Galad

i was going by Azealia's account of votes, i'm lazy alright

Lazy by Day and fuzzy by Night, eh?

Some thoughts on the subject of the phantom.

His plan to make a deal with the Bear inclined me to think him innocent for most of yester-Day. As he said himself, it was something that was bound to attract suspicion (although he showed himself capable of dealing with that) and might have prompted the Seer to dream of him. A Bear would certainly be looking to do neither of those things, and it seemed to me that a Wolf would be unlikely to act in that way too.

But then, what does he do at the end of the Day? He invites the Seer to dream about him. Such a statement, it seems to me, actually makes it less likely that the Seer will dream of him. The Seer is unlikely to welcome being told what to do (that’s certainly the way I would feel). What’s more, the whole tenor of what the phantom is saying here is directed towards reassuring everyone (including the Seer) of his innocence. He even makes so bold as to point out that most people think him innocent (which seems to me to be somewhat over-stating the case). While, on the face of it, he is suggesting that the Seer dreams of him, the underlying message is that it would be a wasted dream, not least because (so he says) he might die over-Night.

He also asks the Ranger to guard him. This seems to me to be rather selfish. There are others who are more deserving of the Ranger’s protection, not least the Seer (and the phantom makes it quite clear that he is not the Seer). If the phantom is merely an ordinary villager, as he claims, why should he be any more deserving of the Ranger’s services than the rest of us? Of course, if he’s a Wolf, it serves his interests to ask the Ranger to protect him because that means that the Ranger will not be protecting someone who is innocent.

Added to that is the phantom’s failure to vote. Although he attempted to explain why he might not be voting, he is surely intelligent enough to have realised that Bergil was most unlikely to be a Wolf and that, by lynching him, we would learn very little. Why did he not, like me, step in and attempt to save Bergil from the noose? And why was he very careful yester-Day not to give anything away as to who he might be suspecting?

In light of all this, the phantom is beginning to look rather suspicious, if you ask me.

[Holbytlass]

Clarification: that I was the first person to say definitely that I was voting for Bergil.

[the phantom]

It seems that Alcarillo is positioned to be the primary lynch candidate today. I'm not surprised. If Alca is a wolf, he probably figured killing tgwbs would make everyone think he was being set up, thus making him appear to be innocent. Also, since tgwbs voted for him, it is possible that the wolves were afraid he was the seer and had spotted Alcarillo and wanted tgwbs dead before he caused any more trouble.

Now, I am only stating theories. I am not accusing Alcarillo. There are plenty of people doing that already, and I am not about to pile on and start a runaway bandwagon vote. Such votes often yield no real information, especially if the target (Alca, in this case) turns out to be innocent, which he may very well be.

But, for the sake of learning something, let us apply the voting order to this situation. If Alca is lynched today and found to be a wolf, it is very unlikely that Kath, Gil, Cailin, Menel, morm, Wayne, or SPM are wolves. Some of them voted for others when he was tied with the lead, and the others voted for him when the voting was undecided. Moves such as those are very risky for wolves this early in the game, when no concrete information is available.

Now, if Alcarillo is innocent, then what? We know that the top vote getter (Bergil) was innocent. If Alca is also innocent, why would a vote for Bergil be suspicious? If no wolves were on the chopping block, wolves could vote for whoever they pleased- or they could even abstain.

If Alca is innocent, then the only way a vote for Bergil looks suspicious is if Kath is a werewolf. It was right after Kath received her second vote (tying her for the lead) that Bergil took the lead.

Then again, I can't blame people for trying to avoid a multiple lynching on the first day (which would have happened if someone wouldn't have broken the three way tie).

Now, about the bear kill. It appears that the bear has either agreed to go after the wolves, or at the least he/she doesn't want to hinder us from catching the wolves. Note that the bear did not go after one of the people who have a lot of experience with this sort of thing (SPM, morm, or I, for example). It appears that the bear wants to keep people around who might be good at catching wolves. The bear does not fear that the village will go after him/her at this time, because we all know it is easier to go after the wolves since there are three of them and they work as a team.

[Holbytlass]

Why didn't you vote, Phantom, Folwren and Samwise?

Nilp has his excuse because of stating he wouldn't be here.

[the phantom]

He invites the Seer to dream about him. Such a statement, it seems to me, actually makes it less likely that the Seer will dream of him.

I am not so sure. If someone told me to dream of them, I would suspect that perhaps they do not want to be dreamed of, and so I would likely dream of them. Surely you would admit that if you were the seer you would've dreamed about me? Am I right, Mr. Saucepan?

The Seer is unlikely to welcome being told what to do (that’s certainly the way I would feel)

Ha ha! Do I seem like the kind of person who would particularly care about hurting someone's feelings?

And if I did offend the seer, surely that made it much more likely that I would be dreamed about, right?

He also asks the Ranger to guard him. This seems to me to be rather selfish.

Yes.

If the phantom is merely an ordinary villager, as he claims, why should he be any more deserving of the Ranger’s services than the rest of us?

To be quite honest, I was truly hoping that the wolves would try and kill me last night, and that the Ranger would foil the attempt. I was willing to take a risk to help the village. So sue me.

Really, SP, I was hoping that we could, for once, work together without turning on each other. I think you are, perhaps, too scared of me to do such a thing. It's too bad, because you are not on my suspect list and even if you were I'd be willing to let you hang around longer than my other suspects in case you were innocent so that I could benefit from your (usually) good observations.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Folwren

But it doesn't make sense that the wolves should vote for Bergil...he said nothing, therefore he was no danger to anybody.

But that's precisely why he makes such a good candidate for lynching from the Wolves' point of view. He said nothing. He accused no one and defended no one. He was a blank sheet. His death tells us very little. What's more, he was (unfairly, in my view) attracting a lot of suspicion. If one of the Wolves already had a vote or two against him/her, then a vote from him would have been the obvious choice for those trying to save that Wolf.

I think that there is a reasonably good chance that at least one Wolf had a vote or two against his or her name yester-Day and that at least one Wolf voted for Bergil.

Originally Posted by the phantom

I'm not surprised. If Alca is a wolf, he probably figured killing tgwbs would make everyone think he was being set up, thus making him appear to be innocent.

It seems to me that a bluff like that would be an unnecessary risk for the Wolves on Night 2. Although, if Alcarillo is a Wolf and another Wolf voted for Bergil to save him, I suppose it might have been a risk worth taking.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Now, about the bear kill. It appears that the bear has either agreed to go after the wolves, or at the least he/she doesn't want to hinder us from catching the wolves.

I am not sure that we can really draw too many conclusions from the Bear kill. Kitanna did not do much to suggest that she was the Cobbler or to give the impression that she was a Wolf. It is quite possible that the Bear simply chose her randomly.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Holbytlass

Why didn't you vote, Phantom, Folwren and Samwise?

Er, Holby, Samwise is no longer with us ...

Originally Posted by the phantom

Surely you would admit that if you were the seer you would've dreamed about me? Am I right, Mr. Saucepan?

No. I don't like being ordered around.

And there were others that I suspected far more than you at that time (as it happens, there still are).

Originally Posted by the phantom

I was willing to take a risk to help the village. So sue me.

How nice of you to selflessly put yourself forward for the Ranger's protection.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Really, SP, I was hoping that we could, for once, work together without turning on each other.

Up until I re-read that post of yours, I was more than willing to give you the benefit of the doubt. Now I am not so sure. In any event, no one is above suspicion at this stage as far as I am concerned. You are not top of my list, but I will be watching you with a more wary eye now.

Originally Posted by the phantom

I think you are, perhaps, too scared of me to do such a thing.

No. I am not scared of you. But I do respect you. If you are innocent, I would like to see you stay around for as long as possible. But, if you are a fiend, then I would rather see you swinging from the gallows sooner rather than later. Which is why my eye is on you.

Edit: And you didn't explain why you chose not to vote yesterday.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

First of all, I would like to announce that I, Nilpaurion Felagund, am of sound mind, and that I would not launch a tirade of suspicion aimed against myself. For it has been coming to my mind that in my previous lives, I have earned enough suspicion to be branded 'suspicious' for life, and anything I do now would still be viewed with suspicion.

Second, I would like to apologise my silcence yesterDAY. A horrible headache came to me while I was pondering the meaning of 'were', and I had to outthink the headache to escape from its grasp.

Now, I find it slightly odd that our good dentist, TheGoblin, has run into suspicion yesterday. He is a rookie, and it was but DAY 1. We have nothing to work on save our characterisation and our gut feelings--or grudges (cf. Mayors' battle).

But then comes Alcarillo's call for the silent to speak up (#53). Who casts the first name? Glirdan (#54). First he just brings the name up, saying he still might vote for Wayne, but:

As for me being hasty in voting for Wayne. I take that back. I will not vote for Wayne. I was just in grief and shock after the death of poor Enca and he was the only one who made me suspicous of anybody. (Glirdan in #82)

Then, in his very next post, he slides the dagger into Bergil (#86.)

Now, another name I seen flip-flopping between Wayne and Bergil is Wilwa. Look how she changes her mind.

Wayne, my dear brother, has posted again but still little was said. All I can say is I know how much he wants to play so I'm willing to give him another chance to say his oppinion and defend himself. But if he can not clear himself I fear I will have to vote for him. (Wilwa in #37)

I agree Holby, I suppose Bergil is really the only choice we have. I will wait though before I vote, just in case. (Wilwa in #56)

One of them is a wolf. I'll bet my reading glasses on it.

[the phantom]

Surely you would admit that if you were the seer you would've dreamed about me? Am I right, Mr. Saucepan?

No. I don't like being ordered around.

Getting cheeky, eh? Well- go to your room, young man!

I was willing to take a risk to help the village. So sue me.

How nice of you to selflessly put yourself forward for the Ranger's protection.

You missed the point. The "risk" I was taking was making myself a target for the wolves. I knew there was no way for me to guarantee that the ranger would be protecting me, thus it was a bit of a risk.

no one is above suspicion at this stage as far as I am concerned

That sort of goes without saying.

No. I am not scared of you. But I do respect you. If you are innocent, I would like to see you stay around for as long as possible. But, if you are a fiend, then I would rather see you swinging from the gallows sooner rather than later.

Well answered.

I will be watching you with a more wary eye now.

Which is why my eye is on you.

I think it is on me a bit too much, as your eye seems to have missed something.

Read all the posts written by the five people on your primary suspect list. One of them says something that should make you reconsider where you have placed them (too high or too low, I won't say which, and I won't say who either- I'm hoping you will catch it but that the furry fiends won't- if you think you have found what I am talking about then give me a little wink, but don't revise your list because that would be too obvious).

And you didn't explain why you chose not to vote yesterday.

I didn't want to vote for a few reasons.

1) I didn't have any clue who to vote for.

2) I knew it was probable that whoever I voted for would be innocent.

3) I wanted to keep the candidates close together with low voting numbers. The way I saw it, the wolves would be aware that me and others were floating around with unused votes, and so if one of their wolf buddies was remotely close to being in the lead it would encourage them to go ahead and bandwagon on an innocent to avoid me or someone else hopping in and tying up their furry friend for the lead.

4) I didn't want to vote for an innocent because it might lead to me being suspected and then lynched. I have been in and out for most of the summer and thus not able to participate in werewolfing. I do not want to get lynched early in this village. I want to contribute at least a little something before I go.

5) Most Importantly... I did not feel the need to save Bergil. I had no reason to believe that he was innocent above anyone else.

Today I am more likely to vote because I have slight suspicions of both innocence and guilt, and thus I might try to save someone I think innocent or vote for someone I suspect as being guilty. Yesterday I did not have any suspicions.

And also, the thought occured to me- what if I try to save Bergil and then he turned out to be a wolf? It wasn't worth that risk.

Is that answer suitable? I hope so, because it is the truth.

[Shelob]

Well things don't look promising for Alcarillo, not only have we a kill that seems to point to him but he also falls on the "voted for Bergil" list...he's so suspicious it's almost too suspicious...

...which would almost work well for a wolf, since being "too suspicous" would suggest he's being framed...now if only I felt suspicous of him.

As it stands though I just can't see it. Firstly Alcarillo voted first for Bergil. True others would likely jump onto a Bergil bandwagon, but that means Alcarillo would have intentionally been placing himself high on everyone's lists. I find that to be risky behaviour for a wolf anytime, esp. this early in the game. Secondly this means the wolves would have intentionally killed someone guaranteed to bring suspicion pouring down on a wolf. Again, not the smartest of moves for them and very risky this early.


I agree that at least one person who voted for Bergil is probably a werewolf (for them that was probably too good a chance to pass up), I just don't think Alcarillo is the most likely. If I were to judge from the timing Holbytlass or Wilwarin would be the least suspicious as they both un-tied the Bergil count. Wolves (and even the bear) would probably have liked having a tie on the first day, so long as their names weren't on the tied list. Not to discount those two, least suspicous of the most suspicous would be the best place for a wolf if they were going to push an innocent to death.


Well there's to that...beyond that though I felt like I was watching Phantom vs. Saucepan Man tennis, from which I gathered that Saucepan Man is keeping an eye on Phantom and Phantom remains as annoyingly suspicous as before. You two have been so helpful that my head aches in appreciation.

'Til later.