Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Although I've said it once and I'll say it again - by holding my vote the day Huin was QTed, I very nearly made the most pivotal vote of the day. So if you think I'm doing it to avoid responsibility... you should rethink.

[Boromir88]

Understand I still hold the QT in the highest respect. And we shall see what happens.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Crossing toes.

I'd like to see that!


The only reason I'm not happy with how this is going is if Lhuna doesn't turn out to be a wolf everybody will be able to hide behind the QT vote.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

The only reason I'm not happy with how this is going is if Lhuna doesn't turn out to be a wolf everybody will be able to hide behind the QT vote.

I agree with this. I am pretty hopeful that this could turn out to be a good lynch, though. We'll find out soon enough.

[Nogrod]

DEADLINE: PLEASE CEASE ALL POSTING!


Lhunardawen is moved into quarantine.


A narration will follow as soon as possible, in less than half an hour.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

The only reason I'm not happy with how this is going is if Lhuna doesn't turn out to be a wolf everybody will be able to hide behind the QT vote.

Well, let's be honest, I'm the one who's been beating on about it for days, even after the original group said it's suspicious and evil-looking.

So, feel free to lynch me if I'm still a live and wrong

Edit: crossed with Nog.

[Nogrod]

Sador Labadal wasn’t a guy you immediately noticed when he stepped into a room. After the accident Sador had become more and more solitary, enjoying more or less only the occasions young Túrin spent with him. He had no family, no chance to serve at war, no particular skills but some basic carpentry – yet Húrin had seen him as a good man who served his father well and had offered him a place in his household.

This day it was different. Sador looked confused when people started turning to him with their suspicions. “Me? I haven’t done anything to merit notice! I’ve just helped around, as always.”

It seemed no-one had a really strong case against the old man, but most people still found him fishy in a way or another.

“He’s odd. He doesn’t sit with others or party with others.”

“He just hides in the corners”

“Have you ever heard him gossiping like a decent person would?”

“And he has touched most of the infected – he must at least have the illness himself just because of that!”



So there it was. Sador was voted to be moved into the quarantine.

The old man limped to the stairs and then turned towards the villagers. “Sorry guys, I’m not man anymore to stand up against those who wish me ill. But something inside me tells I should…”

He gave a pause and people saw his whole body starting to shake incontrollably. His eyes turned around in their sockets and drool started pouring out from his mouth.

“Quick now!” Algund shouted and Gethron rushed to help him. Together they pushed the ever more shaking and lowly growling body of the creature whom they had known as Sador inside the Hall – and bolted the door.


~*~


Dead, yes dead

Nogrod – “The Badger”, the Mod (dead on Night1)
Urwen – Glóredhel, healthy person (withered away in grief during Day2)


Quarantined

Galadriel55 – Andróg, the Cobbler (voted into QT on Day1)
Rikae – Haldir, formerly healthy person (infected by the shady Infectors on Night2)
Huinesoron – Hareth, an Infector (voted into QT on Day2)
Kitanna – Huor, the Ranger (infected in the woods by the Infectors on Night3)
Sally – Túrin, the Hunter (voted into QT on Day3)
Macalaure – Grithnir, healthy person (dragged into the QT by the Hunter on Day3)
Legate of Amon Lanc – Asgon, healthy person (infected sneakily on Night4)
Lhunardawen – Sador, an Infector (voted into QT on Day4)


Hanging around

Thinlómien
Loslote
Pitchwife
Kath
Inziladun
A Little Green
Boromir88
Lalaith
Brinniel
Eönwë
Rune Son of Bjarne
THE Ka
Shastanis Althreduin



It's now Night 5


Good Night, sleep tight.

[Nogrod]

Rían was fully awake when they came. She was indeed waiting for them.

“I know what you’re after. You and your Master want to destroy the Houses of Men. You spoiled Hareth, did away with Haldir and Glóredhel, then Huor and naturally… it’s my turn”. She made a pause. “You don’t know whether I carry a child within me, so you need to take care of it. You needed to make away even with little Túrin. So now you’ve come to ensure there is not going to be a cousin for him to raise the banner of the House of Hador.”

The three shadows kept silently at the door.

“I don’t know how you managed to sneak on my husband, but I know Húrin. He will not let you strike him unawares. There’s not man enough in you to take him. He will reveal you to all people and hack you in pieces!”

That was clearly enough for the Infectors. They came on her.

Rían screamed from the bottom of her lungs. Then she felt a hit in her head, and before she passed out, she felt her jaws forced open and alien drivel filling her mouth while a blade was carving her arm.

Several people had heard her screaming and rushed to her place only to find her lying unconsciously on the floor, dress torn and bloody, and an odd foam gushing from her mouth.


~*~


Dead, yes dead

Nogrod – “The Badger”, the Mod (dead on Night1)
Urwen – Glóredhel, healthy person (withered away in grief during Day2)


Quarantined

Galadriel55 – Andróg, the Cobbler (voted into QT on Day1)
Rikae – Haldir, formerly healthy person (infected by the shady Infectors on Night2)
Huinesoron – Hareth, an Infector (voted into QT on Day2)
Kitanna – Huor, the Ranger (infected in the woods by the Infectors on Night3)
Sally – Túrin, the Hunter (voted into QT on Day3)
Macalaure – Grithnir, healthy person (dragged into the QT by the Hunter on Day3)
Legate of Amon Lanc – Asgon, healthy person (infected sneakily on Night4)
Lhunardawen – Sador, an Infector (voted into QT on Day4)
Lalaith – Rían, healthy person (overrun and infected by the Infectors on Night5)


Hanging around

Thinlómien
Loslote
Pitchwife
Kath
Inziladun
A Little Green
Boromir88
Brinniel
Eönwë
Rune Son of Bjarne
THE Ka
Shastanis Althreduin



It’s now Day 5


After every Night there comes a Day.

[Inziladun]

Well, considering they only knew what we did, that was one nice hit by the QT. Can we have a repeat?
That said, it hardly begs reminding that if the QT picks an innocent toDay, that could still be an easy out for a wolf.

Quick take on the votes is that there are three categories: 1. Lhuna-voters; 2. Other bandwagons; and 3. Me, voting for Lommy alone

Speaking of Lommy, her vote on Lhuna looks quite innocent. It would have been easy for her (or Lal, for that matter) to have gone with Boro, Steve, or me.

I don't recall anything Seer-like from Lal offhand.

[Loslote]

Final vote tally:

Lhuna -> Eönwë
Eönwë -> Boro
QT -> Lhuna
Inzil -> Lommy
Lottie -> Boro 2
Greenie -> Zil
The Ka -> Lhuna 2
Pitchwife -> Eönwë 2
Lalaith -> Lhuna 3
Lommy -> Lhuna 4
Rune -> Eönwë 3
Kath -> Lhuna 5
Shasta -> Lhuna 6
Boro -> Eönwë 4
Brinn -> Lhuna 7

That was a weird Day. I felt like the Lhuna bandwagon came out of nowhere, and really faced very little opposition. I therefore feel like some wolf-on-wolf voting probably happened yeterDay, and I don't know whether it's more likely to have been one of the early voters - maybe not expected the bandwagon to take off - one of the middle voters - hoping to look really good, as pivotal votes - or one of the late voters, once Lhuna's fate was sealed. I don't think anyone stuck their necks out trying to save her. Even Boro's "make it interesting" vote doesn't strike me as trying to save anyone.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

That was a weird Day. I felt like the Lhuna bandwagon came out of nowhere, and really faced very little opposition. I therefore feel like some wolf-on-wolf voting probably happened yeterDay, and I don't know whether it's more likely to have been one of the early voters - maybe not expected the bandwagon to take off - one of the middle voters - hoping to look really good, as pivotal votes - or one of the late voters, once Lhuna's fate was sealed. I don't think anyone stuck their necks out trying to save her. Even Boro's "make it interesting" vote doesn't strike me as trying to save anyone.

Of the Lhuna voters, Ka's, Shata's, and Brinn's might seem the safest for her mates. Ka's came before it gained steam, the other two after it was decided.
With three wolves left, there had to be some on the other wagons too.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Yes - definitely.

Could be read as a Seer hint? From her posts yesterDay, I don't see much confidence towards anyone's innocence or guilt. If anything, maybe they thought her previous Nights' dream was Legate, and that's why she was bummed to find him dead? Otherwise, not sure who they would've thought she dreamed on Night 4.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Zil

Well, considering they only knew what we did, that was one nice hit by the QT. Can we have a repeat?

Indeed! I was disbelievingly jubilant after the deadline, and my first thought was "is there a possibility Huine has actually spilled the names of his fellows in the dead thread by accident" (While sadly probably not, it is true that he can talk about his live fellows in an incriminating way and that way the qt innocents have access to evidence we don't. Something to consider... (Not that I'm saying we should always follow the qt vote, even though that would make this game easier. )

Originally Posted by Zil

Quick take on the votes is that there are three categories: 1. Lhuna-voters; 2. Other bandwagons; and 3. Me, voting for Lommy alone

Awww, don't forget Greenie voting for you alone.

I'm really baffled about the Lalaith kill. It's not what I expected at all. Uhh better her than the seer? I will take a look at her posts right now.

Btw, speaking of seer post analysis, does anyone remember a little exchange between me and Lhuna from yesterDay? I had analysed Legate's posts, and concluded that if the wolves had thought him the seer, then Rune looks innocent because Legate consistently called him innocent from Day1. Lhuna did her best to discredit this argument, saying the wolves wouldn't assume the seer to be so obvious. Now I can't think of a single reason why wolf-Lhuna would try to discredit a very sensible theory that points at packmate-Rune's innocence. Therefore, I'm even more convinced that Rune is innocent.


edit: xed with the last three posts

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Btw, speaking of seer post analysis, does anyone remember a little exchange between me and Lhuna from yesterDay? I had analysed Legate's posts, and concluded that if the wolves had thought him the seer, then Rune looks innocent because Legate consistently called him innocent from Day1. Lhuna did her best to discredit this argument, saying the wolves wouldn't assume the seer to be so obvious. Now I can't think of a single reason why wolf-Lhuna would try to discredit a very sensible theory that points at packmate-Rune's innocence. Therefore, I'm even more convinced that Rune is innocent.

Also, Rune's vote for Eonwe came at an interesting time yesterDay, when the Lhunawagon was looking like it would win. If he was a wolf, I would assume a wolf-on-wolf vote would look pretty appealing at that point. His tone in his vote post is pretty calm, too, which comes across as pretty innocent. I'm feeling okay about Rune toDay.

[Pitchwife]

Looking through Lalaith's posts right now, and the first thing to catch my eye was this:

Originally Posted by Lalaith

How do you know that's what happened on Day 1?
Hmm?

This is actually a very good question which I'd like Boro to answer.

[Brinniel]

[RL]Feeling a bit under the weather all day due to allergies. Will do my best to keep active toDay, but my energy is low and my brain foggy.[/RL]

Lalaith twice voted for wolves and both times weren't necessarily safe votes, making her look more innocent to the village than not. But wolves must surely be seeking out the seer, so it's certainly worth looking at her posts.

There was a pretty large bandwagon against Lhuna and surely a wolf (or two) is hiding there.So looking at everyone's posts about her before the voting began will be useful too.

X-ed with multiple posts

[A Little Green]

I had a new look at everyone overNight based on their interactions with our two known wolves. (I actually made a colour-coded spreadsheet. No, I don’t have a life.) Based on this, I still haven’t seen anything to make me think better of Inzil, but I’m now also having serious misgivings about THE Ka and Kath, and reconsidering how much to trust Shasta. It’s past bedtime for me, but here’s the whole thing -

Lottie
Very unlikely packmate for Huin, somewhat unlikely for Lhuna. On D1 Lottie vocally agrees with Huin several times and points this out herself; on D2 votes to lynch Huin at a crucial moment. These don't look like packmate behaviour even taken separately, let alone as a combination. With Lhuna it’s a little more complicated. D1 Lottie says she won't vote for Lhuna. On D2 she suspects Lhuna for discussing Kitanna but later forgets to suspect her for it. Mostly what makes her look innocent though is when Pitch calls her out on omitting Lhuna she is open about her biased frame of mind that is due to having no prior suspicion of Lhuna. If Lottie and Lhuna are packmates, this is pretty brazen. D3 she puts Lhuna under "feel nothing about", D4 under "dubious"; D4 Lhuna says Lottie is likely innocent, and Lottie votes for Boro which is consistent with her suspicions at the time so doesn't give us much.

Pitchwife
Unlikely packmate for Huin, somewhat unlikely for Lhuna. As said before, Huin’s insistent focus on the GLP and particularly Pitch’s role in it makes them an unlikely pair. Again, interactions with Lhuna are less conclusive. On D1 Pitch puts Lhuna in "don't know yet" category. D2 he points out Lottie's omission of Lhuna in discussing who is incriminated by discussing Kitanna – this would be such an indirect way to wolf-on-wolf as not to earn him many brownie points, and makes me think them less likely fellows. D4 Lhuna says he is likely innocent, while he says Lhuna is a "slippery fish". He votes for Eonwe after QT vote for Lhuna, which is again consistent with his previous suspicions so doesn't tell us much.

Rune
Very possible packmate for Huin, somewhat unlikely for Lhuna. Barely interacts with Huin. With Lhuna, Rune doesn’t suspect her on D1-2 and even slightly defends her on D1. Meanwhile, Lhuna barely mentions him until listing him under “should look more closely” on D4 and voicing concern that he could be a submarine wolf. More interestingly, Lhuna vocally disagrees with Lommy’s conclusion that the Legate kill makes Rune look innocent; this makes me think them unlikely packmates, since if the village finds that good a reason to think a Runewolf innocent, undermining it on purpose seems odd. At the end of the Day, Rune says he would like to have a better look before voting Lhuna and won't just follow QT’s lead, and goes on to vote Eonwe. This is consistent with both his earlier suspicions and his earlier independent voting behaviour, and doesn’t seem too alarming.

Boro
Possible packmate for Huin, somewhat unlikely for Lhuna. This was a mess. Huin light-suspects Boro; on D2 Boro doesn't want to vote for Huin and votes for Mac at a crucial moment instead. On D2 Boro defends Lommy against Lhuna and doesn’t like Lhuna’s vote for Lommy. He flipflops pretty impressively on Lhuna during that day, saying he is wary of her suspicions but "overall feeling good", then later "perturbed" by her but uncomfortable voting for her since she is no longer around. On D3 he is still not comfortable with the Lommy vote and says he'll vote for Inzil or Lhuna. On D4 he speculates on a Lhuna-Lottie-Inzil pack, is first to pre-vote Lhuna but then ends up voting for Eonwe after Lhuna has a comfortable lead. I presume this was to keep another viable candidate in the voting in order to flush out potential wolves trying to save a packmate, and in my opinion makes him look better. Meanwhile, Lhuna somewhat suspects Boro from D2 onwards but doesn't act on it, which is fishy.

Lommy
Possible packmate for Huin, somewhat unlikely for Lhuna. As discussed ad nauseam before, Lommy and Huin mutually suspected each other at a level that would be just about comfortable for wolf-on-wolf. However, the interactions between Lommy and Lhuna mostly don’t look packmatey to me. D1-2 Lommy finds Lhuna innocent and doesn't want to lynch her. Then D2 Lhuna votes for Lommy with barely a reason, which would be odd for wolf-on-wolf – surely if she wanted to make herself look better by wolf-on-wolfing she’d try to come up with a reason for it? After this Lommy freaks out about Lhuna’s throwaway comment on bandwagons in a way I don’t think she would if it was her packmate wolf-on-wolf voting her out of the blue. D3 Lommy points out how Lhuna noticing Huin's slip would be perfectly plausible for packmates, which I’m not sure their packmate would be in a hurry to point out as, in retrospect, it was a fairly strong argument against a wolf who wasn’t that much suspected at the time – and especially as Lommy herself said she only “low key suspected” Lhuna. If she actually wanted to make herself look better by bussing a packmate, handing out a solid argument for ammunition yet keeping away from it herself doesn’t strike me as the best way to do it. D4 they suspect each other and Lommy is fourth to vote for Lhuna. The vote placement was arguably one of the most crucial ones, but then, if Lommy is a wolf after all, she badly needed something to make herself look better. If she judged Lhuna to be a goner, this would have been a great way to slither back into the village’s good books.

Brinn
Somewhat possible packmate for both. With Huin it’s inconclusive: on D1 Huin vocally defends Brinn and votes to save her; on D2 Brinn votes for Huin. Could be packmates, with Brinn voting for Huin on D2 in an attempt to distance herself from him; or could be Huinwolf trying to buddy up to an innocent Brinn. With Lhuna things are a bit more straightforward but equally inconclusive. They basically suspect each other since D2. Lhuna speculates about a Brinn-Huin wolf pair, which would be pretty evil if Brinn and Huin really were her packmates – though admittedly this theory was pretty obvious at the time and had been mentioned by others before Lhuna. On D3 Brinn feels worse about Lhuna, does an analysis and finds her suspicious but doesn't consider voting her as she hasn't been around; on D4 Lhuna has downgraded Brinn to a "should look more closely" -category, while Brinn is the seventh to vote for Lhuna. I don’t think this vote tells us much about whether they were fellows, as it’s consistent with Brinn’s previous suspicions and, more importantly, Lhuna was already a goner by this point so voting for her would have been an easy (if limited value) brownie point for a fellow wolf.

Eonwe
Somewhat possible packmate for both. D2 casts deciding vote on Huin, though as discussed before, if he was aware of this at the time he would have known it was a choice between bussing a packmate or looking pretty bad himself the next Day for casting a deciding vote in a bandwagon against innocent Mac. From D2 to D4 Eonwe says Lhuna seems fine or is mostly good, until later on D4 Lhuna has moved to "unsure, neutral" on his list; D2 Lhuna makes a point against Eonwe but in the same post says her vote choices for the Day are Lommy, Brinn or Boro; D4 Lhuna elaborates on her argument against Eonwe and votes for him. Very interestingly given Lhuna’s alignment, Eonwe was both the person she voted and the other most serious candidate for lynching yesterDay. This makes him seem a little better since it would be pretty wild if the top candidates for lynch were fellow wolves one of whom voted for the other. Still possible, I guess.

Kath
Very possible packmate for Huin, somewhat possible for Lhuna. Barely interacts with Huin. Lhuna barely mentions her. D1 Kath berates Lhuna for Nilping; D3 says Lhuna would've been her second choice for lynchee due to her role in discussing Kit; D4 wants to hear more from her as still suspects her for same reason, pre-votes Inzil or Lhuna, and is fifth to vote for Lhuna. This is very consistent with her earlier suspicions, which also means that if Kath is a wolf who suspected her fellow Lhuna earlier, she didn’t really have a choice. At the time she voted, it was pretty much between Lhuna and Eonwe. A vote for her other top suspect, Inzil, would have been considered a throwaway vote at that point, and incriminating if Lhuna did end up lynched like she did. (Sidenote: if Inzil does turn out to be a wolf, Kath looks better, as I'm not sure if she'd really have two packmates as her very clear top suspects for two Days in a row.)

Shasta
Possible packmate for both. With Huin, they barely interacted with each other and on D2 Shasta voted only after Huin was already a goner. I don’t think this vote placement is as fishy as some others do, but I also don’t think it tells us anything about Shasta’s role or his relationship with Huin. With Lhuna, Shasta says on D1 that the self-vote isn't alignment-indicative; Lhuna suspects Shasta since D3 but doesn't act on it; and on D4 Shasta is sixth to vote for Lhuna, saying that he doesn't think a wagon he likes more is going to materialise. I appreciate the sentiment if he’s innocent, but this could also be Shastawolf code for “I think my fellow is a goner so might as well bus her”. I still get generally innocent vibes from Shasta and think his subtle attempt to protect Kitanna is a point in favour of his innocence, but at the same time his interactions with our two known wolves would be consistent with his being their packmate.

THE Ka
Very possible packmate for Huin, possible for Lhuna. Barely interacts with either wolf, except for a noticeably long explanation on D1 about how Lhuna’s time constraints make her hard to read. This stood out to me on rereading as something Ka might not go into such detail about if she didn’t have a reason to have thought about Lhuna to such an extent already on D1. On the other hand, she is the first to vote for Lhuna after the QT vote, which would be a very bold move if wolf-on-wolf. Then again, quite a few people had expressed suspicion of Lhuna so it’s possible Ka calculated that she was a likely lynchee after the QT vote and wanted to make herself look good by bussing her – or alternatively, she could have calculated that someone else was a more likely lynch (it was still fairly early on).

Inzil
Very possible packmate for both. I’m trying very hard to avoid my earlier tunnel vision problem here (sorry Mac ) and expected to find something between Inzil and Lhuna that would make him look less suspicious, but – nope. His interactions with Huin were, as previously discussed, mutual suspicion without votes either way, and Inzil voting for Mac on D2 in a way that could have been an attempt to save Huin. Meanwhile he and Lhuna barely mention each other; on D4 Inzil says the QT pick is "interesting" but Lhuna isn't his first choice, and votes for Lommy in the same post. This is certainly consistent with his crusade against Lommy that started pretty much the minute D4 began and that I’m still not comfortable with; but as pretty much the only time either of them expresses an opinion about the other, it looks pretty bad.

--

As for the Lalaith kill - my initial thought is that she made herself look pretty innocent with her voting record. There was an interesting pattern with Lalaith, actually. Both wolf lynches, she follows a (more or less) known innocent’s lead and votes for the wolf while saying she doesn’t really want to, and regardless of having a better reason for voting for an alternative candidate (Mac on D2, Eonwe on D4). This would have been both ruthless and mostly unnecessary for a Lalwolf, and in my opinion at least made her look very innocent.

That said, I really, really don't think the wolves can afford not to try and off the Seer at this (or any) stage, as s/he becomes increasingly dangerous to them the longer s/he lives. I can't keep my eyes open long enough to look into it, so I'll let someone else go through her posts and look for potential Seer clues. The only thing that immediately occurs to me is how vocal she was about trusting Kitanna on D2. This could maybe have been interpreted as a Seer who had dreamed her after her slip the Day before.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Looking through Lalaith's posts right now, and the first thing to catch my eye was this:


This is actually a very good question which I'd like Boro to answer.

I already answered yesterday and won't say anymore. If you want to know it's easy to find. I'm rather surprised, grateful, but surprised.

If I recall, evil side holds the tie-breaker, because Lhuna was the last lynch. But 6-3 advantage means we'd have to have a bunch of squabbling innocents in order to get a bad QT vote.

I'm certainly going to continue the good ground we began yesterday with the QT vote and feel I should get a tiny apology. Not a big one, but a small one, because the living and dead worked together and we did what I advocated we should have done for days.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I already answered yesterday and won't say anymore. If you want to know it's easy to find. I'm rather surprised, grateful, but surprised.

You mean this, which you posted in reply to Lal's question?

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I'm willing to bet G55 and Huey had fun trolling us for 2 days in the QT.

I don't see how this is an answer.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I'm certainly going to continue the good ground we began yesterday with the QT vote and feel I should get a tiny apology. Not a big one, but a small one, because the living and dead worked together and we did what I advocated we should have done for days.

Considering that yesterDay was the first Day this actually made sense, it'll have to be a small one.

[Pitchwife]

Lalaith's suspects, as of yesterDay:

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I could vote Eonwe, Brinn, or Boro, (same as my suspect list of yesterday) and could also be persuaded to Lommy and even Shasta. (for easons see my posts above)[...]
Btw I was skim-reading as much as I could, looking for stuff Legate had said that could have made the wolves think he was a Seer.
I didn't find anything precise but i did find this: he pointed out that Hui's saving of Brinn looked wolfy. That makes me feel better about voting Brinn, particularly as Hui was a first-time and therefore possibly not very tricksy wolf.

Two of these (Eönwë and Lommy) were also quite consistently suspected by Lhuna, which could be a point in their favour. Now I don't recall playing with Lhuna before, so to those who have: How much wolf-on-wolf do you think she'd be willing to engage in?

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

You mean this, which you posted in reply to Lal's question?

I don't see how this is an answer.

Yep. You can put it together to make sense of it. Unless you're trying to get me to commit to something I'm not going to, at the moment?

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Yep. You can put it together to make sense of it. Unless you're trying to get me to commit to something I'm not going to, at the moment?

So I suppose you're talking bout this, right?

Originally Posted by Boro's Huinalysis #639

"I'm voting G55 to avoid Brinn getting lynched" = wolf having trouble trying to create fake suspicions. So his reasoning isn't based on faked suspicions, but on what he KNOWS. Brinn is innocent.

If you're convinced that was his reasoning, fair enough, I suppose.

[Thinlómien]

Day 1

Comments on the village events (amount of posting, fake vote discussion) on a very general level. Baffled by Lhuna's self-vote, but that's it. Was largely absent, apologised for this on Day2 and cited RL reasons.


Day 2

First post: mildly suspects Legate, Boro, and Brinn, doesn't suspect Sally or Mac. This phrasing caught my eye:

Good feelings about Greenie, who I thought was reading posts carefully and thinking about things in a genuine and sensible way which feels unwolflike. Zil is coming across in a similarly honest way.

Could the wolves have read this as her subtly mentioning her Night1 and Night2 dreams by lumping them together like that? I mean, timing-wise it would make sense for a seer who missed most Day1 to state her business quickly like this in her first post on Day2, while hiding it in a flow of general commentary of half a dozen villagers who caught her attention. But not really sure if this would stand out to anyone else really, I might be grasping at straws. For reference, the post is here.

Discusses wolf strategies, disagreeing with THE Ka. Says she doesn't suspect Eönwë. Replies to Kath's question by saying that had she been around, she'd have wanted to vote Legate or Boro on Day1.

Reluctantly takes part in the Kitscussion.

I've been asking questions which no-one has listened to or answered. For example, why are some people still suspecting Kit.
On the subject of which, I've been re-reading and found a couple of other people I feel quite good about.

However "other people" amounts to just one: Lottie. Boro is still "weird" and Legate suspicious.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Ugh. I don't like the choices on this lynch list. Not particularly suspicious of any of them.
Brinn would be my least worst choice but it sticks in the craw to have my vote dictated by a cobbler.
If I vote for Legate will I be throwing away my vote?

The votes were Mac 3, Lommy 2, Huine / Lottie / Brinn / Inzil 1 at this point.

Voted Huine, citing trust in Kit as a reason. Still didn't like doing so.

Thoughts: I quite like my conspiracy theory about Greenie/Inzil (*gasp* yes I like a thery that points to Zil's innocence! ) but it is perhaps more prudent to assume the wolves thought Lalaith had dreamt of Kit, given how defensive/trusting she was of her. Other suspected dream in that case? I guess it could be any of Greenie/Zil/Sally/Lottie/Mac, nothing really stands out to me in particular so hard to say of anything would have stood out to the wolves either. Also given Lalaith's erratic early presence, maybe the wolves even optimistically speculated a seer!Lalaith may have missed her Night1 dream?


Day 3

Zil can I say that despite my earlier good feelings about you I don't like this as a reaction to the Hueywaggon

Put this as a quote because I'm debating whether it makes Zil a more or less likely "seer dream".

Seriously? Logically, the only thing [Kitanna] could have been, other than the ranger, was the seer. Yesterday, I repeatedly asked people who doubted her innocence for justification and got none.
I did wonder about this yesterDay, and when that vote she led against Huey turned out so effective I really did think she really was the Seer. But well done KitRanger for leading us to catch the wolf. Hope you're celebrating in QT!

I guess the wolves could have read this as frustration from the seer about the ranger death, especially is she had dreamed of her?

Questions Brinn's for "pot calling the kettle black"ey suspicions.

1. Does Legate's first vote for Hui mean that I was wrong to suspect him yesterDay?
2. Does Hui's 3rd vote for Mac point to his (Mac's) innocence?

Says "Now something today about Eonwe didn't sit right and I went back over his posts" and goes off to build a case against him. If I recall correctly, she persisted in this suspicion of Eönwë. This is certainly not a point in his favour. Concludes the post with the rather forceful "Really. This does not look good."

Asks Greenie to clarify her contradictory seeming reasoning.

Quotes a whole post from Kath about the Kitscussion that concludes Eönwë is suspicious, and says: "Kath this is all very interesting. Did you see my post #680? We seem to be on similar trains of thought." Would a pack with Wolfwë read this as the seer fishing for support for her case against a dreamed wolf?

Her thoughts about Day3 voting:

So much unanimity on Sally is a bit unsettling.
So I would rather go Eonwe (from the dodgy behaviour stated in my earlier post) or Boro toDay. Brinn would be acceptable (Second time taunt from QT - really?)
I am still not completely happy with Legate but because of his Huivote I feel a bit better and won't vote for him toDay.

Nervous about Sally's pick, which she later explained pushed her to vote Sally (or to be precise: Sally not telling us her pick made her suspicious).

Thoughts: this does not look good for Eönwë at all.


Day 4

Expresses unhappiness about recent innocent deaths.

Thinks my bloodlust on Day3 was scary.

Yes... my gut feeling was that most of the people panicking at the end there were bewildered innocents. Rune for example feels innocent to me as a result of DL behaviour. And Legate's reactions - I started feeling a lot better about him. A bit late now of course [rolleyes smiley]

This I presume is what Lottie referred to just now when she said Lalaith's Legate comment could have been interepreted as frustration for losing her dream of the Night before? Nice catch, but it doesn't necessarily make me feel better about Lottie that she was able to summon this snippet so easily.

One thing that occurs to me before I turn in - if Lommy is a wolf then Lottie is probably not and vice versa.

Says she should have voted Eönwë the Day before. Disagrees with Zil suspicion. "Mostly feeling good" about Pitch and Rune, and "Greenie I have had good feelings about all game but I need to check to see if anything happened yesterDay to change that. "

Says my judging people who did not want to vote Sally yet did is "too much" because I was "stomping all over the thread shouting at us about voting for Sally, we could barely get a word in edgeways!"

Points out my leaving out her case against Eönwë in my vote summary (tbh absolutely validly; I had criticised her for - if I recalled correctly - her not having other suspects than Legate and it turned out to be blatantly untrue), calls me bloodthirsty again. Repeats her "mea culpaing" about failing to vote anyone else than Sally.

Wants to wait for the QT vote. "I feel still feel bad and somewhat dispirited about the shambles of yesterDay."

As for suspicions:

I haven't really moved on much from my suspect list of yesterDay. I could add Lommy on there - I admire her chutzpah toDay but I still think her behaviour was suspicious, particularly in her refusal to acknowledge the benefit of having HunterSally as a known innocent.

I would also put Shasta on my 'watch' list. For the reasons, (ironically enough) that Lommy states in her recent analysis.

I still feel I haven't got any kind of handle on Lhuna, Ka and, to some extent, Kath.
Which probably means they are all brilliant wolves. [smoker smiley]

(Of candidates discussed?) would prefer to vote Eonwe, Brinn, or Boro, and says could be persuaded to vote Lommy or Shasta.

Thinks Legate's point about Hui protecting Brinn makes Brinn look more innocent.

Then there's this, which I think greatly added to people starting discussing Lhuna as a lynch option:

OK I think it's a bit rude that we are completely ignoring the QT vote. I'm saying that in the spirit of someone who (as per my previous post) hasn't really looked at Lhuna.

Another thing that is slightly unsettling me is that I was all set to vote for Eonwe but now the QT has dissed the person who was the first to vote for him.

Hmm. Not sure what to make of this, possibly makes her look less convinced about Eönwë? Or less trusting of QT??

Then there's the already quoted bit about "yes, definitely" having to look at Lhuna if she's not lynched.

Questions Boro's wolfy phrasings, asks if he thinks Zil is innocent.

Vote:

I feel quiet disempowered by yesterDay's shambles. I haven't had a proper chance to re-evaluate.
In the QT there are two people who successfully voted for a wolf (Kit and Legate)
I am going to trust them.
++Lhuna

Thoughts: leaning towards agreeing with Lottie that if the wolves thought Lalaith was the seer, they thought her Night4 dream had been Legate.


Conclusions: if the wolves killed Lalaith for looking like the seer (and why wouldn't they gun for the seer?), I think they assumed she dreamed of Kit on Night1 or 2 and Legate on Night 4. The other Night 1/2 dream would have been presumed to be innocent Greenie or innocent Zil, or perhaps Mac or even Sally. For Night3 the rather obvious conclusion is wolf!Eönwë. I mean no other theory seems half as plausible.

Therefore I am very suspicious of Eönwë.


edit: xed with #1055 onwards

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

If you're convinced that was his reasoning, fair enough, I suppose.

You got it.

Congrats on your milestone, I see you have surpassed 3,000 posts.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Inzil:Meanwhile he and Lhuna barely mention each other; on D4 Inzil says the QT pick is "interesting" but Lhuna isn't his first choice, and votes for Lommy in the same post. This is certainly consistent with his crusade against Lommy that started pretty much the minute D4 began and that I’m still not comfortable with; but as pretty much the only time either of them expresses an opinion about the other, it looks pretty bad.

I'm still rather hurt I didn't merit a mention in her list.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I really, really don't think the wolves can afford not to try and off the Seer at this (or any) stage, as s/he becomes increasingly dangerous to them the longer s/he lives. I can't keep my eyes open long enough to look into it, so I'll let someone else go through her posts and look for potential Seer clues. The only thing that immediately occurs to me is how vocal she was about trusting Kitanna on D2. This could maybe have been interpreted as a Seer who had dreamed her after her slip the Day before.

Well, the Seer is the prime target always. It's only when they really don't see compelling signs that they'll just go for one unlikely to be lynched.

[Thinlómien]

Greenie's analysis is very interesting and informative. I'm trying to take it with a pinch of salt, but it's exactly the kind of important data I've been too lazy to harvest myself so I'm very thirsty for it. Also I have to say that if Greenie is a wolf she's putting admirably much effort into something that doesn't hugely benefit her. (Sure, good way to find unfortunate innocents who might have been implicated by the deaths of her fellows. But likely hard to not end up implicating her remaining fellows to a degree in the process?)

Originally Posted by Pitch

Now I don't recall playing with Lhuna before, so to those who have: How much wolf-on-wolf do you think she'd be willing to engage in?

I don't have a particular recollection about that, but she has a thing for doing brash things while somehow not appearing quite as brash. Look how she got away with self-voting on Day1 as a wolf in this game! I certainly wouldn't entirely discredit even brutal wolf-on-wolf from her.

[Thinlómien]

Btw about QT -

there's still a nice innocent majority there (or, nice and nice, not sure dead innocents outnumbering dead baddies is a good thing ) but there's three baddies and Lhuna is the tie breaker, so if the innocents disagree with each other and mess it up, there's a chance the baddies can wrestle control of the QT vote.

This actually possibly more as a reminder to the QT than ourselves.

(Who are probably very well aware of this and thanking me right now for being a Captain Obvious but I still wanted to put this in here. Never overestimate the intelligence of your fellow ww players. )

[Thinlómien]

Also still about QT - if we want to orchestrate some communication deal with them, or if we want to agree to vote BEFORE them, then now would be the time to discuss that.

Meanwhile I'm out because it's late and tbh theoretical ww talk gives me headache

[Loslote]

A list

Feeling good about:
Pitch - Same as previous Days, I think he's seemed genuine, and I don't think it's likely he and Huin were packmates.
Rune - Lhuna arguing against his innocence, and the innocent feel of his vote yesterDay, leave me feeling pretty good about him.

Feeling okay about:
Greenie - I really liked her analysis post just now. I've had a bit of a hard time reading her throughout the game, but I'm feeling okay about her for now.
Eonwe - I don't think he and Lhuna are likely packmates. I don't have a great read on him, but I don't suspect him at this point.
Shasta - He's done some innocent looking things, and I haven't gotten any kind of wolfy vibes from him. He hasn't gotten his hands dirty enough to prove himself either way, though.

Feeling torn about:
Lommy - Lhuna voting for Lommy early on Day 2 seems like an unlikely wolf-on-wolf vote. I don't think it's likely that they were packmates, so despite my earlier suspicion of her, I've moved Lommy out of my suspicious groups.
Kath - She feels genuine and I feel inclined to trust her, but she could certainly be a submarine wolf. I don't really suspect her, but I haven't seen enough to be confident in trusting her.
Brinn - She's still flying under my radar somehow. I almost feel an instinctive suspicion, but she looks better when I think logically, so I am super torn on her. Leaning innocent for now.

Feeling bad about:
Ka - I've been suspicious since her vote for me Day 2, which I thought could easily have been a wolf trying to keep her hands clean. I went back to her vote post yesterDay, and the tone just felt practiced and non-committal, and she spent like half of it talking about the QT dynamics. She also didn't seem to be talking as though she was expecting a huge bandwagon, so she might have voted for a fellow wolf assuming a) she'd look better if her packmate did get lynched and b) it wasn't super likely to happen anyway. I'm starting to seriously suspect her, and per Greenie's list, she is one of few people who makes a lot of sense as a packmate to both Huin and Lhuna.
Zil - Sometimes the obvious wolf is actually a wolf... Zil would make sense as a packmate for Huin and Lhuna, almost too much so. I definitely still suspect him, but I'd rather go for [b]Ka[b] toDay.
Boro - His vote yesterDay felt more innocent, but it could have been a double bluff by a wolf. I still suspect him for sure, but again, I'd rather go for Ka toDay.

At this point, if I had to guess, I would guess that the remaining wolves are Ka, Zil, and Boro. Otherwise, maybe someone like Brinn, Greenie, or Shasta, who give off good vibes but haven't "proven" themselves to my satisfaction. I would like to vote for one of my top three, though, and I think I am most suspicious of Ka.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I don't have a particular recollection about that, but she has a thing for doing brash things while somehow not appearing quite as brash. Look how she got away with self-voting on Day1 as a wolf in this game! I certainly wouldn't entirely discredit even brutal wolf-on-wolf from her.

It's been quite a long time.

I can see her going with a planned sacrifice if she thought it would help her packmates. Particularly if it bought her mates a couple days of perceived innocence.

It's not impossible, but I find wolf-on-wolf less likely. It felt similar to Huey's lynch, sort of unexpected. She was my preferred choice, but I don't appear to be a trusted figure amongst the living. I don't think Lhuna was considered an option until the QT vote.

It tells me that dead innocents trusted someone here yesterday and Lhuna's lynch took the pack possibly by surprise. It wasn't nearly as hectic as Huey's lynch, but I don't see a pre-planned "sacrifice Lhuna" plot from anyone yesterday.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Congrats on your milestone, I see you have surpassed 3,000 posts.

Thanks! Playing Werewolf does that to you...

Originally Posted by Lommy

I don't have a particular recollection about that, but she has a thing for doing brash things while somehow not appearing quite as brash

This is actually a good description of the general feeling I got from her posts.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Btw about QT -

there's still a nice innocent majority there (or, nice and nice, not sure dead innocents outnumbering dead baddies is a good thing ) but there's three baddies and Lhuna is the tie breaker, so if the innocents disagree with each other and mess it up, there's a chance the baddies can wrestle control of the QT vote.

It's 6:3 now; Hui & Lhuna can PM behind the others' backs, and we can count on G55 to vote with whatever the wolves come up with, so yes, a concerted baddie action to derail the QT vote is not out of the question. We'll all have to see what the Cuties come up with and decide whether we're willing to trust it.


I need to sleep over all this now. See you all later.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

It's been quite a long time.

I can see her going with a planned sacrifice if she thought it would help her packmates. Particularly if it bought her mates a couple days of perceived innocence.

It's not impossible, but I find wolf-on-wolf less likely. It felt similar to Huey's lynch, sort of unexpected. She was my preferred choice, but I don't appear to be a trusted figure amongst the living. I don't think Lhuna was considered an option until the QT vote.

It tells me that dead innocents trusted someone here yesterday and Lhuna's lynch took the pack possibly by surprise. It wasn't nearly as hectic as Huey's lynch, but I don't see a pre-planned "sacrifice Lhuna" plot from anyone yesterday.

It absolutely felt like it came out of nowhere. There were three other wolves out there. I'd guess that at least one, maybe two voted before the Lhunawagon - Eonwe, Zil, me, Greenie, I'd even put Ka and Pitch in that group - and one or two wolves saw the tide coming and jumped right on board. I think if the wolves were voting at a time when it was still possible to steer the vote - Lalaith, Lommy, Rune, Kath - the Lhunawagon probably wouldn't have felt so seamless. I could see wolf among Shasta, Boro, and Brinn for that reason. I don't have a good sense for which people in each group might have been particularly suspicious, though.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Feeling bad about:
Ka - I've been suspicious since her vote for me Day 2, which I thought could easily have been a wolf trying to keep her hands clean. I went back to her vote post yesterDay, and the tone just felt practiced and non-committal, and she spent like half of it talking about the QT dynamics. She also didn't seem to be talking as though she was expecting a huge bandwagon, so she might have voted for a fellow wolf assuming a) she'd look better if her packmate did get lynched and b) it wasn't super likely to happen anyway. I'm starting to seriously suspect her, and per Greenie's list, she is one of few people who makes a lot of sense as a packmate to both Huin and Lhuna.

Good take on Ka's vote for Lhuna yesterday.

*adds Ka to mental list of people to analyze today* Hopefully it's a list I don't forget.

[Eönwë]

Wow, it looks like yesterDay got exciting after I left! It's pretty crazy how we've had two last-minute bandwaggons ending in an Infector being quarantined.

Will be back with more once I've had a chance to properly catch up on what's happened since I last posted.

[Eönwë]

The discussion about Legate's possible seerishness and implications bears more looking over (Zil, Lommy, Lhuna, THE Ka, Brinn - anyone else? Will need to look back over the whole day). I wouldn't be surprised if there were at least one other Infector in that group.

Later in the Day there's a specific discussion on the topic involving Rune - Lommy seems to think that if the Infectors thought Legate was the seer this makes Rune seem good, Brinn agrees, Lhuna disagrees, they get into a debate, and THE Ka joins on the side of Lommy. I wonder about this because I actually found myself agreeing with Lhuna while reading this, but clearly she was evil. And thinking about it some more I think I agree with Lommy. Also, since this was before the QT vote for Lhuna, there was no reason for anyone to distance themselves from her, so we have to assume the responses are genuine, or at least not tainted by the fact that Lhuna was a possible quarantine-candidate. One thing I wonder whether it would occur to an innocent to look through Legate's suspicions in such a way, but then again, I haven't played in a long while... In any case, I think the discussion there feels a little bit like there may be some re-hashing of the previous Night's discussion, so I'm a bit wary of Lommy, THE Ka, Brinn. And given that this is an indirect way of defending or not defending Rune, this could go either way for him - either he's being soft-suspected by a fellow (Lhuna) or put brought back to the table (i.e. returned to being a possible vote). Either is plausible. Addendum after reading (#1053 - whoa, over 1000 posts?!): looks like Lommy still supports this reading.


Also, another thing to look at is the pushback against the QT-vote-waggon now that we know Lhuna's role. There are obviously many innocent reasons to be suspicious, but I find it unlikely that no Infector was on that side. On the other hand, I would be surprised if all Infectors were on that side - joining a sudden vote-waggon for your packmate is probably a good way to avoid suspicion). One thing that might be interesting is to look at people's claimed reasons for voting Lhuna, which came pretty much out of nowhere - in this case it might be that over-justified votes are more suspicious than the under-justified ones, though the latter still merit wariness.

[Brinniel]

Reviewing yesterDay and toDay - some general thoughts:

Lommy voted Lhuna at a critical moment which makes me think her more innocent than not. That said, I do find Inzil's attack on her suspicious and there's nothing in his interactions with Lhuna that change that.

Lottie I also find more innocent due to reasons I stated yesterDay. I won't completely discount the possibility she could be a very bold wolf, but I find it less likely.

In light of learning Lhuna's role, I do actually find Eonwe to be more likely genuine. I looked back at the earlier part of yesterDay and he was gaining a fair amount a suspicion along with Lommy, Boro, and Inzil. Knowing there could be a chance he could be lynched, I don't think Lhuna would've voted him if he were a packmate.

Kath I've found to be more innocent because I've agreed with her top suspicions the past couple Days. If I'm completely wrong about Inzil, I'd reconsider her.

I analyzed The Ka a couple Days ago and couldn't come up with any solid conclusions on her. Looking at her posts yesterDay, I noticed she writes more about play tactics than focusing on other players. It seems the entire reasoning she voted Lhuna was because she trusted the QT vote. Okay, I don't recall her having any opinions of Lhuna beforehand. This could potentially be a wolf-on-wolf vote hiding behind the QT vote, especially if she didn't expect the bandwagon that followed.

Greenie and Boro I go back and forth on. Part of me is inclined to trust them and another part of me says don't.

And Lommy - thank you for your Lalaitholysis as I am too tired to do that sort of analysis myself. I don't necessarily agree with all of your conclusions, but I can see how the wolves could've thought she may have been the seer.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I don't think I recall Lhuna ever posting after the wagon started to turn her way, which - I'm not one to judge people's availability (by any means ) but I don't really feel like the wagon was ever going to turn away from Lhuna. Kind of just a feeling I have, like, she was always going to be the QT.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ (it's my new favorite thing, seriously)

I have yet to shake my bad feeling where Lommy is concerned. I entirely realize I'm not backing this up with much.

Point of data - the QTs each day have been people I haven't focused much effort on, feels like, maybe that's why I've felt so shruggy about them.

Greenie still my top read, that hasn't changed. Boro feels almost as "and what?" as I do currently. Starting to think he's not as connected to Lommy as I thought. Maybe.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Did Pitch ask me for an explanation of a post of his I thought was creepy and them never respond, or am I misremembering that?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Reviewing yesterDay and toDay - some general thoughts:

Lommy voted Lhuna at a critical moment which makes me think her more innocent than not. That said, I do find Inzil's attack on her suspicious and there's nothing in his interactions with Lhuna that change that.

Lottie I also find more innocent due to reasons I stated yesterDay. I won't completely discount the possibility she could be a very bold wolf, but I find it less likely.

In light of learning Lhuna's role, I do actually find Eonwe to be more likely genuine. I looked back at the earlier part of yesterDay and he was gaining a fair amount a suspicion along with Lommy, Boro, and Inzil. Knowing there could be a chance he could be lynched, I don't think Lhuna would've voted him if he were a packmate.

Kath I've found to be more innocent because I've agreed with her top suspicions the past couple Days. If I'm completely wrong about Inzil, I'd reconsider her.

I analyzed The Ka a couple Days ago and couldn't come up with any solid conclusions on her. Looking at her posts yesterDay, I noticed she writes more about play tactics than focusing on other players. It seems the entire reasoning she voted Lhuna was because she trusted the QT vote. Okay, I don't recall her having any opinions of Lhuna beforehand. This could potentially be a wolf-on-wolf vote hiding behind the QT vote, especially if she didn't expect the bandwagon that followed.

Greenie and Boro I go back and forth on. Part of me is inclined to trust them and another part of me says don't.

And Lommy - thank you for your Lalaitholysis as I am too tired to do that sort of analysis myself. I don't necessarily agree with all of your conclusions, but I can see how the wolves could've thought she may have been the seer.

There's something about this post that I distrust - Brinn's reads of Greenie and Boro seem so very generic, it seems like it would have been very easy to place Pitch/Rune/myself there as well if she didn't have really anything to say about the three of us - but we were omitted entirely.

Obviously I know I'm not a wolf, so it's not (necessarily) a case of Brinnwolf forgetting her packmates. But it bothers me, even if maybe it shouldn't.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

It's 6:3 now; Hui & Lhuna can PM behind the others' backs, and we can count on G55 to vote with whatever the wolves come up with, so yes, a concerted baddie action to derail the QT vote is not out of the question. We'll all have to see what the Cuties come up with and decide whether we're willing to trust it.

This, and Lommy's post as well, rub me the wrong way. Smacks of trying to get us to mistrust the QT vote as not coming from a good place - while the dead innocents don't have any extra knowledge, I think there's slim-to-no chance they mess up, split 3/3, and give the evil deaders control (because that's literally the only scenario in which evil gets control.)

While sure, it's not impossible, I think there's a tiny enough chance of it occurring that I plan to fully trust the QT vote as coming from an innocent perspective, and casting pre-emptive doubt on it strikes me as shady.