T-I-G LVI: Panic at the Prancing Pony

[Macalaure]

Aaalright. I'm here, so the wraiths obviously thought that the ranger would be doing a better job this time. After her stunt yesterDay, Rikae looked innocent enough to be a decent alternative, I suppose.

The silence on the thread is remarkable. I really, really hope I'll be able to contribute some more than I did the last two days.

[A Little Green]

Well, if that wasn't some scrolling... Is there anyone around or will I chatter to myself? I'd feel more like a good chat about the game than a long analysis rant (the topic of which I don't even know yet - I believe I said yesterDay that I'd like to look at Rikae, but obviously I don't need to do that anymore).

There's something wrong with my computer or me because I can't get Rikae's chart opened.

[A Little Green]

I almost thought we could have it relatively easy now, with quite few possibilities left. I reconsidered when I saw the list. Such sneaky people!

I know I'm not a wraith. I also know Mac isn't. Thus,
IN THIS GROUP OF PEOPLE THERE ARE TWO WRAITHS:
Lari
Miri (I like Miri much better than Mira, by the way)
Legate
Aganzir
Gondie
Nerwen
Rune
Menel

Leggy, Agan, Gondie and Rune seem quite innocentish. That leaves Lari, Miri, Nerwen and Menel.

Lari is still the one I'm flip-flopping most about, she manages to seem both innocent and guilty at the same time. I have no idea whatsoever about Miri. Not about Nerwen either, but that I'm used to. I never manage to read her and that just started to worry me. I might try to look through her posts at some point toDay if I have the time. Menel I find somewhat suspicious and might vote him toDay if I get no better ideas during the Day.

[Lariren Shadow]

I'd be up for a chat about the game.

As for who the Ranger could have protected, maybe xe thought about protecting Mac instead, knowing that he's a known innocent. Also would be an easy kill, especially if the wolves/wraiths were inexperienced.

Well, that's not to say that Rikae wouldn't have been an easy kill either, considering her banter with Sally yesterDay.

To be honest I completely forgot that Menel was still here and alive

[Lariren Shadow]

On the random issues of Menel, he supported Brinn as Seer as opposed to Lommy. At least according to Rikae's chart. And I found the post too, where he was thinking that Brinn was a better revel than Lommy. Here

I don't really know what that means, maybe that he's more innocent than not because he thinks that Brinn is on "our side".

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Well, I am here. On one hand, I am quite happy that I don't have to catch up with too many posts, as I feared ("instant posts - five minutes and done!"), however, I must also say that the level of participation does not quite comfort me. But hopefully now something will start to happen, as it usually does in the late afternoon (my time) hours.

First, as for Rikae's death - I am actually quite "happy" for that (well, of course not but relatively speaking), in the sense that I do not have to worry whether she is guilty after all or not. All right, but now our numbers are thinning. What were the possible motives to kill her?

First: why her and not Mac: simple. I find it likely that the Wolves took Mac as being protected toNight, and instead of risking the loss of a kill, they decided to keep him for later and attack somebody else. Also, there's been some controversy (coming mainly from the dead one herself) around Mac being a Cobbler or whatnot, which may have played its role as well.

Which brings me to the second: why Rikae in particular. She looked mostly innocentish to people (although for example, like I said above, I was about to start to doubt about her a bit).

(Another thing I thought of, but it's a bit of a "wild guess", I think, is that it may have been aimed to further incriminate Mac, as to put him as if he were Ferny, being sort of "protected" by the Wolves from Rikae by killing her. But that sounds pretty weird.)

Third thing... I will take a look at her list of suspects from yesterDay, if the Wolves' motives could not have been influenced by that as well (personally I think they might have, quite likely. Let's see).

Back in a while.

[Lariren Shadow]

A list! I'm bored! And don't want to do my homework! I think I can figure out the Marxist view on history by the title.

Known Innocent:
Mac: Which, actually, is not all together true. He could be Ferny because the Seer would have dreamed innocent for him then.

The Newbies:
Miri: I really have no idea on her. She seems honest enough in her posts and her reasons are about as good as mine sometimes. Not saying that means anything but she does seem to be more innocent than guilty.

Beregond(because I honestly forget which nickname we decided on): Has been very active, but then sort of stayed out of things recently. I should check the admin thread incase it was just some sort of RL business but it seems odd. Also voted Mac twice.

People I played with before:
Agan: I really have no idea on her. She seems to do a lot of analysis on other players and seems to be finding things, but I really don’t know about her intentions. She doesn’t strike me as wholly innocent, but I really don’t have that much else on her. She could be completely innocent or could not be.

Menel: Has disappeared. It could be a good way for a wolf/wraith to win. Stay away. And, well, he’s been doing IC posts pretty much the whole time. With the *hics* and such. Not sure what to make of that. And he was for believing Brinn as the Seer.


The other four:
Legate: I really have no idea about him at all. I can’t really read him. I want to say that I found something that points to either his guilt or that he's innocent, but I only get a feeling in his posts. Nothing more than that. He didn’t vote Day 2 and supported Lommy fully for being Seer. This is either very intelligent wolf/wraith behavior or just a really self assured innocent.

Nerwen: Also didn’t vote Day 2. Has been also sort of absent from play. Interestingly enough, at least by using Rikae’s amazing chart, she has the almost the same(difference on how much each supported Lommy) statistics as Legate. Not sure if that means anything more than she just happened to not be able to vote one Day and she thought the first revel was better.

Rune: I know he’s not dead. It was a slip. As for his role, I have no idea. He seemed a little off with his opposition to lynching Fea Day 2 and voted the same way she did. He also picked a fight with Brinn and one with Miri. Either it’s his wolfish/wraithish way of trying to disassociate with the others(though not sure about Miri) or he just likes to do that. Either way I don’t like it.

Greenie/Lily(?): Seems more innocent to me. Apparently Brinn was nonwolfish towards her. I really have nothing much else to say but that I’m sorry if this is a longer post than you would like.

I also don’t think I’ve mentioned how much I want to thank Rikae for the awesome chart. Even though when I saw it I was like “CHART?!” It really helped.

[Mirandir]

All right, I'm here. Shocked (and none too thrilled) to be awake this early on a Sunday, but here. However, I have to go play with clay (oh the difficult life I lead ) and it is Super Bowl Sunday so I probably won't be around much until work later. I'll try to check in periodically though.

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

I also don’t think I’ve mentioned how much I want to thank Rikae for the awesome chart. Even though when I saw it I was like “CHART?!” It really helped.

And the sad thing is, I can hear your voice in my head saying it.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Hmm... Rikae suspected Mira as being an "under-radar-flying" Wolf, saying that she and the known Wolves more or less ignored each other. Fair enough behavior for a newbie Wolf, although - now I don't know what are the specifics of Mira's behavior - but at least from my personal experience, even newbie Wolves tend to know that it is not that good idea not to say anything about other Wolves. Although it's true that Mira is very hardly around at all - or being significant in any more important way.

Then she mentioned Mac, as we know, suspecting him as a Cobbler... but okay, now I am looking for a Wraith, so let's leave that (and otherwise about possible connection of Mac and the kill, see my previous post. To add something to that, or make clear what I also thought of back there: it is possible that the Wolves thought they could get rid of Rikae so that she does not continue her campaign against Mac, if they also thought Mac is a Cobbler. On the other hand, like I said above, it could be a thing the Wolves thought of to incriminate Mac further by making us think exactly what I just said. Though, that would depend on the nature of the Wolves, and actually thinking of it now, the first possibility seems more likely to me. If it played any role at all).

Then she mentions me, but I won't of course comment on that.

Then she mentions some Aganzir... but quite neutral-ishly... anyway... this sort of "neutral" people would have been the best ones to get rid of her (except for Agan that would be Rune, Menel, Lari, let's say), as she does not overtly suspect them (so that they cannot be immediately suspected from targeting her because of wanting to get rid of her so that she does not suspect them anymore), but at the same time, they won't lose that strong vote of somebody who thinks them innocent (as she doesn't mark them as "green" rightaway). It might be very likely for at least one of the Wolves being here, among those - but that of course depends a lot on the mentality of the Wolves as a group (or rather, pair, in the current situation).

Also, one note to those who use Rikae's list - let us not forget that the earlier events listed there from early Days do not affect Frodo: his behavior from first Days might have been innocentish. Frodo is likely somebody who was lying low for the beginning, in hope the Wolves don't notice him, and now he is lying low again, hoping the Innocents don't lynch him (or at least avoiding suspicion, now).

So... interesting in any case. I need to sort my thoughts, but I'd be happy to see anybody around posting.

EDIT: x-ed with Mira

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Mr. Leggings

First: why her and not Mac: simple. I find it likely that the Wolves took Mac as being protected toNight, and instead of risking the loss of a kill, they decided to keep him for later and attack somebody else. Also, there's been some controversy (coming mainly from the dead one herself) around Mac being a Cobbler or whatnot, which may have played its role as well.

That sounds reasonable but for one thing - the ranger didn't protect Lommy the night after her reveal, which means basically that s/he assumed the wolves would assume that s/he'd protect Lommy and decide not to attack her. And if they assume they can't get the Seer then who would the wolves target if not Mac the known innocent (unless he's Ferny)? It's quite logical (at least in some sense) that Mac was already protected that Night which would leave him defenceless last Night. That, in turn, leads to the question of why he was not killed toNight since the wolves (if they reason the way I do) had reason to assume he was not being protected last Night.

According to this logic, it looks very possible that Mac is Ferny. I don't know - he hasn't seemed like that to me. Then, of course, it's possible that the wolves do not reason the way I do or else that my reasoning is faulty in some way.


EDIT: x-ed with Miri and Leggy

[Aganzir]

Somehow I'm not surprised Mac is still alive. Did you forget to send your name to the wolves?

Originally Posted by Lari

Also would be an easy kill, especially if the wolves/wraiths were inexperienced.

What do you mean? That Mac would be an easy lynch? What does it have to do with the wraiths being inexperienced?

Originally Posted by Lari

Well, that's not to say that Rikae wouldn't have been an easy kill either, considering her banter with Sally yesterDay.

Well I don't know. She was generally considered quite innocent I think, and at least when I read through the day, the banter didn't make me suspect her more.

I think Rikae was the only one who found Legate somewhat suspicious. I wonder if a wolfish Legate could have killed her so as to avoid attention. Hmm I might want to take a look at Legate at some point today.
Also, if Mac is the cobbler, the wraiths might have thought the chances that he's not lynched are better if Rikae is dead.

Originally Posted by Lari

I don't really know what that means, maybe that he's more innocent than not because he thinks that Brinn is on "our side".

If he's a wolf, he was being very bold. I think that looks more like a cobblerish remark. Unfortunately we don't have too many days to check out possible cobblers as time is running out.

Legate's post is creepy. Why are you so sure Mac is not the cobbler? It looks like you are protecting him.

**

Okay yesterday.

Originally Posted by Lari

It was not that it was more her first post I didn't like and Nog's comment about her statement your vote that had me suspicious. Both of those things, and since both were mentioned I thought that was the best way to put it. And what Miri said.

Then it would have been better to repeat just those things. Otherwise one might expect you suspected her also of voting me, being the most sneaky you could find &c (I'm too lazy to check the other things she was suspected of)...

Originally Posted by Lari

And Sally left out Lommy in her list on Day 1. I wasn't the only one.

But you left out a wolf, which, according to my logic, means you couldn't be a wolf then as you wouldn't forget a fellow. Even if you had accidentally erased her name when copy-pasting.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Initial wishywashy reaction to Lommy vs. Brinn looks bad.

I trusted Lommy all along but found it amusing that Brinn's reveal looked more gifted-ish than hers.

Originally Posted by Mac

I'm very much puzzled by Aganzir's insisting that I'm evil.

Honestly Mac I'm sorry I find you suspicious every time! Guess if I like it myself. I hate obsessing about just a few people but I can't help it.
But Barney Ferny... Doesn't it sound good?

Originally Posted by Mac

The fact that she's laughing at the idea of me being Ferny. Why is that idea funny - unless you know better?

That's pretty far-fetched.

Originally Posted by Rikae

What was THAT???!!!

I interpreted it like there's still enough of us innocents... But it could also be interpreted the other way.

**

I've reached the point of being paranoid about everyone.

Where's Berry?
And where's Nerwen? I hope she's alright - I wouldn't like to be in Victoria right now.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

According to this logic, it looks very possible that Mac is Ferny. I don't know - he hasn't seemed like that to me. Then, of course, it's possible that the wolves do not reason the way I do or else that my reasoning is faulty in some way.

Or that they would expect you to think the way you do, and do that to incriminate Mac in your eyes, like I said. But yes, both of these are possible. For myself, I can't say for sure which of these alternatives is more likely.

All right. I have looked through the posts of Rune and Nerwen and overall, those two seem to me as innocent. Or at least on the earlier Days (some Frodo here is not impossible, although I won't see Rune as Frodo either. Nerwen, perhaps...)

I will probably try to continue with looking on people's older posts...

EDIT: x-ed with Agan

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Why are you so sure Mac is not the cobbler? It looks like you are protecting him.

Am I?

But I never said I am sure Mac is not the cobbler. I am pretty certain I didn't (for I never was sure about that). But I was always saying - that is not our concern now, he is innocent (in the sense: not a Wraith. He may be Ferny, but for our purposes, now, still, we need to concern ourselves primarily with Wraiths, and only later with Macs or Fernys).

[Aganzir]

But we don't have enough time to ignore the cobbler! If we don't lynch a wraith or Ferny today or tomorrow, they're probably going to win.

[Lariren Shadow]

There is also the possiblity that Rikae's death sort of implicates Rune(for those of us who also look at the admin thread). Which either means the wolves/wraiths wanted to implicate him or, like what Greenie said, they thought Mac was protected and went for Rikae. Also, they could have been thinking that Rikae was going to die today anyway(some people might have been miffed by the conversation last night and wanted to lynch her on purpose)...I honestly have no idea where this thought was going.

Anyway, there's no harm in looking at Rikae's chart for clues. But there is a higher probablity that a wolf/wraith is considered more innocent by her than not.

Edit: x-posted since 931

[Lariren Shadow]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

What do you mean? That Mac would be an easy lynch? What does it have to do with the wraiths being inexperienced?

Because he was dreamed innocent. If the wolves/wraiths didn't think he was Ferny or that they had no idea who Ferny was, someone relativley new could have though he was the best kill.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

But we don't have enough time to ignore the cobbler! If we don't lynch a wraith or Ferny today or tomorrow, they're probably going to win.

I know that. But I hope us to get a Wraith now. There's a long time yet till tomorrow.

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

There is also the possiblity that Rikae's death sort of implicates Rune(for those of us who also look at the admin thread).

Why?

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

Because he was dreamed innocent. If the wolves/wraiths didn't think he was Ferny or that they had no idea who Ferny was, someone relativley new could have though he was the best kill.

That would mean both wolves are relatively new which I find rather unlikely.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I know that. But I hope us to get a Wraith now. There's a long time yet till tomorrow.

I hope so, too, but if we don't & have a reason to assume we won't do it tomorrow, either, I think our only sensible option is to lynch Mac. Unless he's wolf-killed, which I doubt.

[Lariren Shadow]

He was angry about the bantering and thought that both should be punished. If the wolves/wraiths were thinking really really intricatly then killing Rikae to get him would be a possibility.

He is also yellow on Rikae's chart of colors and it is commented that his fight with Brinn could have been wolf-on-wolf.

Plus Sally did the song "Hey Rune".

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

If the wolves/wraiths were thinking really really intricatly then killing Rikae to get him would be a possibility.

I can't see how they could think that way. It sounds rather far-fetched.
This comment reminds me pretty much of Brinn's "maybe they killed Nog because they thought he was Frodo" - a slip from the nightly chat.

[Lariren Shadow]

Or I could just be trying to think why Rikae died. And who it might implicate. Which was me trying to fine someone who could be at all connected to her death.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

He was angry about the bantering and thought that both should be punished. If the wolves/wraiths were thinking really really intricatly then killing Rikae to get him would be a possibility.

He is also yellow on Rikae's chart of colors and it is commented that his fight with Brinn could have been wolf-on-wolf.

Plus Sally did the song "Hey Rune".

But that would be a very weird reasoning. And people don't even think about it like that - unless you were the Wolf and thought that, which I now think unlikely, and also, the other Wolf would have to be either Mira or good old Mohandas Karamchand*, which is... well, not completely unlikely, but pretty much on the edge.

I would hope to read something from those folks toDay - and also Menel seems to be away, that's another one I would like to hear, but alas, that has to wait until toMorrow, if I understood correctly to what he said on the admin thread.

* (For those who could be confused, I mean: Beregond. I didn't knew there were Hindus in Minas Tirith anyway - I always thought Ghan-Buri-Ghan was one, if there ever was any such in LotR at all.)

EDIT: x-ed with Agan&Lari

[Lariren Shadow]

Yes I know my logic is horrible and really, at times, only works in my own mind. I come up with more far-fetched things than most do. Simply a theory that I came up with.

And that is good to know about Beregond's nickname. I would also like to put in a new nickname for Miri: Stick.

[Beregond]

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

Beregond(because I honestly forget which nickname we decided on): Has been very active, but then sort of stayed out of things recently. I should check the admin thread incase it was just some sort of RL business but it seems odd. Also voted Mac twice.

Yeah, it's RL work and play, not wraith work.

Hope to catch up later this afternoon and tonight - I sincerely apologize. And I didn't think to write anything in the admin thread.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Lari

Which either means the wolves/wraiths wanted to implicate him or, like what Greenie said, they thought Mac was protected and went for Rikae.

But that was not what I said - what I said was that according to my logic Mac wasn't protected last Night.

I'll be back to post and vote in a couple of hours, I dearly hope I get some clue as to what to do in the meanwhile...

[Lariren Shadow]

Yes, I think I messed up on the wording. I got through the sentence where you said Mac was protected instead of Lommy and then I think I got confused on the toNight stuff.

This is all also assuming that the Ranger isn't one of the absent few.

[A Little Green]

One more thing - I only just now noticed what Menel posted on the admin thread. That means I won't vote him toDay since it's not fair to vote him before he gets a chance to defend himself against what I accused him of.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I have taken a look at our friend Gandhi-buri-Gandhi. (Ha! Should that be Gandhi-Berry-Gandhi, after all???)

I am not sure if he would be so bold as a newbie Wolf to react to Brinn, of all people, in his first post of all:

Originally Posted by Beregond

I have a feeling Brinn could be something other than she seems - she was the first to really encourage proper discussion and then she left, almost to deflect suspicion and avoid notice all in one. I don't know about the rest of you, but I just don't know as she is who she says she is."

And Brinn on him at the very beginning:

Originally Posted by Beregond

I've lost count. Thank you! I feel terribly newbie-ish.

That does not look quite incriminating on first sight.

On Brinn and Sally, he is not very specific in his lists:

Originally Posted by Beregond

Brinn - tend to think she's innocent, but not wanting to underestimate
(...)
Sally, Fea, Lari, Mira - not making themselves suspicious

or

Originally Posted by Beregond

Brinn: the only thing about her is I didn't understand why she was so surprised when Fea (and myself) commented about Rikae. Besides this incident, I'm not sure where Brinn stands. I'm going to be watching her, but she's safe for now because I don't have much to go on.
(...)
Sally: didn't post enough today.

In general, nothing concrete against them. Now that might be a reason - a newbie Wolf trying not to say anything concrete about his packmates. But then, again, he is generally very... well, indecisive, or how to say that, about people.

Also, his going for Mac on the first two Days, and in fact, he stated, he wanted to go for him even on the third, look innocentish - as if a (newbie) innocent suspected a person. His vote for Fea troubles me a little, it could have been hiding something in the general frenzy. But as a Wolf, he really gained nothing by that - unless he was planning to save Mac, a possible Cobbler ally.

He also had some exchange with Brinn concerning Rikae's "Seer revelation", however, it was Brinn who started it, not him. A newbie Wolf would hardly have started that, but Brinn could - to sort of put in order (and "interrogate" him before somebody else does that, which might have been more dangerous) the newbie Wolf who made a mistake by concerning himself too much with Rikae's revealing joke.

My question would be - what was Brinniel (the known Wolf, let's bear in mind!) following by this? By initiating this talk, I mean? As it didn't seem like incriminating Beregond, or was it?

He was for lynching Brinn instead of Sally... it looks like he came to that via his own thinking process, on the run, so to say... (as he was first going for sally, but later he joined the cause for Brinn in its very beginning, before more people even started to support voting Brinn).

And:

Originally Posted by Beregond

This must be one of those clues Brinn indicates she left.

That could be an attempt from a Wolf to defend the Seerishness of a fellow Wolf, but I tend to doubt it. Wouldn't it be a bit weird and, well, dangerous? Not very comfortable for either of them...

All in all, I am inclined to see him as likely innocent, and very likely not like Frodo, either (Frodo would have been more careful, I believe. Also, generally thinking, I am not sure if the Wolves would have picked Beregond as a target, of all people, unless they thought he is Frodo - which he seemingly, again, isn't - or does not make that impression, I'd think).

EDIT: Oh, and I forgot. With voting Mac first, he was jumping on the existing suspicion, but then again, he was not alone who thought that, not at all... and at the time Durelin was being voted for, it would have been perhaps easier for a newbie Wolf to go with the flow and vote Durelin, yet he decided to vote for Mac - who was likewise innocent (as we now know as well). So, again, not sure if a Wolf would do that...

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

Plus Sally did the song "Hey Rune".

Many women have sung about me, I am special that way.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

One more thing - I only just now noticed what Menel posted on the admin thread. That means I won't vote him toDay since it's not fair to vote him before he gets a chance to defend himself against what I accused him of.

At this stage in the game I think you should vote for you prime suspect, unless of course there is not chance at all to get them lynched.

So I hope you find another top suspect during this day. . .

---------------

I never really saw my self as being incrimidated by Rikae's death, she never voiced more than a moderate suspicion of me and that is to be expected. Personaly I viewed it as another relatively safe kill.
Why Rikae and not Mac?
Well, there are plenty about who suspects Mac of being Ferny, maybe the wraiths are simply waiting for us to kill him. . .if he is Ferny, then why would they want him dead?
I won't write of the posibility that they might just make sure that they did not vaste a vote, it seems plausible enough. Even if they did not wait with going after Thinlo, but she was the seer and it was worth risking to loose a kill, when the alternative was to let her get an extra dream.

EDIT: Cross posted with Legate

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

So, now, if I recapitulate the stage in which I am now:

I think our Wolf (at least the one who wasn't Frodo at first) isn't:

Beregond
Rune
- for both, see my recent "excavations"

(though I think they are not even Frodo, at least those two. Bere the most.)

I think our Wolf rather isn't:
Nerwen - same as above
A Little Green - from before. She still seems innocentish to me.

I would be inclined to believe our Wolf isn't:
Lariren Shadow - After reading her posts... well, her style is consistent (doesn't look like Frodo coming here, not very openly, at least), and what Rikae says about her, when checking some of her posting for myself, for example this interaction with Brinn and Sally really looks un-wolfy.

I know our Wolf isn't:

Macalaure - he may be a Cobbler, but now that aside...

Oh my. And here it comes. That leaves me with:

Mirandir
Aganzir
Meneltarmacil

Great. Fantastic. Absolutely brilliant I am mainly referring to Aganzir there. Because I really can never discern whether she is not a Wolf. I never have any proofs. Of course not. And very often she just is. Eeeeek... Sally, Brinn... Agan? What kind of a village would that be... again?

As for Menel, think, like LG does as well, I am not voting him toDay. He is not around. I got mostly innocentish feeling from him this far, but again, with little posting, you get little. Mira... looked innocentish to me in some aspect, but... not really in any significant way. I have to go through her posts. She could also be a good Frodo, in my opinion.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Rune

At this stage in the game I think you should vote for you prime suspect, unless of course there is not chance at all to get them lynched.

True - but on the other hand I don't want to vote him before he has had a chance to respond because it is possible he has reasonable explanations for what I found wraith-ish about him.

Like I believe I said earlier toDay my guess the two wolves (or at least one) hide among the following four: Lari, Miri, Nerwen and Menel. Since I don't have enough (be it for their innocence or against it) on Miri and Nerwen I wouldn't want to vote either of them. I already said why I won't vote Menel. That would leave Lari, but I don't think I'm comortable with voting her either...


EDIT: x-ed with the Silli of Amon Lanc

[A Little Green]

++ Lari

See reasoning in my earlier posts.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Hmph. Lari. Had it not been for what Rikae pointed out (these interactions of her and the known Wolves), and some general style of sometimes posting things I believe a Wolf wouldn't say (too controversial or such), I would be willing to give it a shot... as there are things that unsettle me about her... but then, there are really lots of things against it. I would be as much more likely to try Mira...

*goes to check some old posts again*

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I have gotten a good feel from the posts of Lari today so I am not too keen on voting for her. . .not that she is a person that stands out as innocent.

What I noticed the most was when she mentioned my comments on the admin threat, as a possible reason for the wraiths desition to kill Rikae. . . . but that did not make her seem guilty, it just made me think. Because generally what is said on the admin threat should not be used to get people lynched in game.

My problem is that not much have happened today and the few people I had suspicions towards are already dead.

[Aganzir]

I don't have enough energy for a massive analysis so this will do.

I must repost this because I find it amusing.

Originally Posted by Legate

Well, there is still enough of us for the time being.

It would be rather lousy from a Legwolf to make a slip like that so I assume he meant "enough of us innocents."

**
Here's Legate's cobbler talk on day 1.

Originally Posted by Legate

Although it makes little sense, if there are let's say one Wolf and one ordo and the Informer remaining, and they are to vote, the Informer would of course vote for the ordo.

Well figured.

Originally Posted by Legate

No, no, no. If you notice any Ferny, you should just ignore him, because his purpose is to make mess. We should go after the Wraiths, not Ferny.

What Legate is suggesting here is that Ferny should be ignored long, so long his vote actually matters. He should not be paid any attention to, we should just ignore him.

Originally Posted by Legate

Great. So what shall we do with you now, Mac? Especially if the RW's get your name tonight. Which of course, the normal villagers won't know, but if the RW's see "Mac" tonight, they know who their informer is. A great way to do that. Fantastic, as the villagers won't be there to see it, thus have no evidence against you.

This couldn't possibly be any more blatant. First Mac suggested the cobbler could send his own name to the wraiths. Legate was kind of a bit suspicious of him because of it, but said this. It looks like he thought Mac was the cobbler and wanted to ensure he'd do what he had promised to do. It's written in a sarcastic tone, but words like great and fantastic can be interpreted also in another way.

Originally Posted by Legate

Well, but thinking of it, if the Wraiths don't get Mac's name today, then they are clear he is not the Informer. Or from another point of view, if he is not, then the real informer would be silly - after what's been said now - to send Mac's name to the Wraiths. Whereas, great. He could send them his name and they'll be clear.

Here he wants to make sure that if Mac is not the cobbler, the real cobbler doesn't send in his name just for fun.

I didn't even pay attention to these comments when I read them on day 1 but now that I went through Legate's posts, they look really fishy.

**

I wonder what to make of Legate writing twice Barney instead of Barliman. Both times, he was talking about Frodo and "Barney's" ability to tell about xem to the ranger.

Legate suggested that Frodo should not reveal unless xe is under direct threat of dying. That would be a very convenient way for a wolf to react to talks about Frodo's possible reveal.

On day 1 Legate didn't have any idea about sally nor Brinn. He was still wondering about Mac, although he was worried it might become a bandwagon. He voted Mac, only for the Ferny thing.

**

After missing day 2, on day 3, Legate didn't find Brinn suspicious and said sally looked a bit weird at times but he couldn't define her better. He thought Mac could be a wraith, and said that a wolf would like to keep Ferny around as long as possible without overtly defending xem. This of course means Legate can't be a wolf as he's accusing Mac, the likely cobbler.

Originally Posted by Legate, day 3

Anybody cares to tell me what is so suspicious about Brinn, except the fact that she's been a succesful wolf in some of the past games?

Hehe this reminds me of Greenwolf's first game: "Could someone tell me what's so suspicious about morm!?!?!?"

He was a major contributor in Fea's lynching. Also, he's been seemingly convinced Mac was a wraith. He voted for Fea, saying

please, do not attempt to vote somebody else again just for the sake of preventing a bandwaggon against her. We know how it ended yesterDay.

Let's see how the voting looked like then. Legate gave Fea her fourth vote, sally had one. So, in other words: "Don't vote sally, bandwagons are bad and will make me suspect you!"

I'm not even halfway through his posts and I'm getting tired. *goes to make some tea*

I don't like Legate's way of reacting to Lommy's reveal.

Originally Posted by Legate, day 4

And now Lommy says Mac is innocent. Okay.

It's like "Oops, I can't suspect him anymore." However the most interesting thing is that he had been consistently suspicious of Mac being a wraith, but now he didn't even seem to pay a thought to the possibility of him being Ferny. He said Mac looked still horribly sinister, but he was a known innocent now etc.
Okay, he mentioned the idea of Mac being Ferny, but that was probably more due to the general pressure as Rikae and me were quite inclined to think so. He never pursued the idea any further, though.

Legate was also quick to encourage the idea of sally being Frodo. I'm rather sure sally pretended to be the RB just so the real RB wouldn't be looked for, and it was certainly in the wraiths' interests to make us believe she was Frodo. Legate came up with elaborate explanations as to why we should believe sally. Is it too obvious to be wolfish? I don't think so, as back then there was no guarantee her exact role would be revealed to the seer / even in lynching.

Legate has been wrong pretty much and pretty loud, and he's cursed his bad luck in this game several times. Someone said admitting his mistakes made Mac looked more innocent. Legate seems to be trying to do the same.

**

Okay day 5. Legate is calling Mac a known innocent. He's flip-flopping on him quite a lot. A while later he makes wishy-washy statements like sometimes it looks like Mac is Ferny, sometimes not, it's possible he isn't, lynching him should be done very late if at all because the cobbler counts as an ordo &c. So what? It's not going to help us when he can use his vote against us if left alive. According to Legate, the cobbler is not a very big threat unless he knows more than us. What makes you so sure he doesn't? I'm quite convinced the wraiths & Ferny know of each other - they are plain dumb if they haven't found a way to communicate the information that is so important to them.

Legate suggests leaving Mac alive also because he believes he'll be night-killed. I'm not so sure. If Mac is the cobbler, the wolves certainly know about it. It doesn't matter that he's a known so-called innocent. He works as a distraction - see, here we are, talking about him and arguing if he should be lynched, when we should be looking for wolves.

In #757 Legate makes a list. He seems to trust Greeny the most, which I find odd, given that she's probably my best bet for the RB.
It's enough for him that Mac is not a wraith - he's in Legate's I tend to trust category. No it isn't enough! If you trust the cobbler, you trust a person who's deliberately giving false information and twisting things, and therefore contribute to our loss.
Also, the people he's more or less suspicious are Berry (seems like an innocent newbie. Sometimes looks like could be a wolf newbie), Rune (sometimes okay, sometimes a question mark of wolfishness - erm, what do you mean with the question mark of wolfishness?) and Menel (thought he was innocent up until reading Greeny's analysis, now should reevaluate). I find Berry pretty innocentish and I don't really understand where Legate is coming from. Don't understand his reasons for suspecting Rune, either. On the contrary, I think Rune's interaction with Brinn & sally should make him look more innocent. His Menel suspicion is the weirdest of them all, though. It's so convenient. Like "Yeah he looked innocent but now that you say it, Greenie, he could actually be suspicious! I should probably start suspecting him and get him lynched so we'll win!" It's... scary. Okay, I admit Menel looks suspicious, but I'm more worried about Greeny.
One of the reasons I find his list suspicious, though, is that I disagree with it so much. His opinions are almost the opposite to mine so I find it difficult to believe he's innocent.

**

Today Legate suggests that Mac wasn't killed because the wolves thought he was protected. He barely even mentions that he might be alive because he's the cobbler. He also says that Rikae might have been killed to incriminate an innocent Mac, but admits it looks weird. I don't think it matters much that he admitted it himself - he brought it up in the first place, and even if people don't automatically assume it's so, they might subconsciously remember it and feel better about Mac because of it. You know, in the end we are a mindless herd. If someone says something, we're prone to agree with it, and if someone with as much authority as Legate says Mac is innocent, it is not surprising if people start thinking the same.

In his opinion, we don't need to busy ourselves with Ferny yet. Not true. There's so little time left that unless we have very good reasons to assume someone's a wolf tomorrow, we should lynch Mac. Really. Remember this even if I'm not alive tomorrow. Otherwise they are going to win.
There's a long time till tomorrow, says Legate. Nope. It's too close.

Hmm today he was ready to label two of the people he had wondered about yesterday (Berry & Rune) innocent. Also Greenie still seems innocentish to her. Well not to me. Mac "may be a cobbler, but now that aside." I really don't like how he downplays Mac! So, he's left with Mira, me, or Menel being wolves. What do you mean I'm a wolf very often? I haven't been since Dueling Wizards where I did really really lousily.

**

Rikae was the first to suspect Legate even a little. Somehow I wouldn't be very surprised if she had been killed because of it - better to remove a threat as long as it's still small. It would just fit a Legatewolf who wants to survive.

**

As for Legate's connections with the two known wolves... Brinn said she wouldn't vote him on day 1 as he got lynched early last game, sally didn't mention him on her list of players (which was very rough, though, and excluded several other players as well). She didn't plan to vote him, either, though.

On day 2 Brinn said he seemed sensible but careful, sensible could mean evil, nothing particularly suspicious yet would like to keep an eye on him. Watching. Her comment looked like it could be wolf-on-wolf. The same continues on day 3 when Brinn says the tone of his posts is innocentish, but she doesn't really like how quickly he concludes both Fea & Mac are baddies. Still watching.

And that's all until Lommy's reveal. They're keeping a good enough distance and their opinions on each other don't reveal much.

**

Based on this Legate is probably the most suspicious person I can see. He also manages to look quite innocentish at times, what with accusing Mac so strongly, but he's certainly bold enough to sacrifice his fellows and/or the cobbler to ensure his own survival.

The worst things have to do with Mac, though. Legate's cobbler talk on day 1 is outrageously suspicious because it looks so much like he's giving advice to the cobber. Also, the way he treats Mac now is really strange. He's downplaying him all along although he knows Ferny's survival will result in our loss.

**

Okay I'm obsessing about Mac again... Really badly. There's still a chance, however slim, that he is not the cobbler.

I know I've xed a lot, I'll comment on those things soon.

So much for a non-massive analysis...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Well, I said something about Lari...

... but as I read through the first Day, Lari was really doing things a Wolf might possibly do... with the voting... it is possible Sally managed to vote just a few moments before her, which meant for Lari-wolf that she does not have to pick her vote in order to save Brinn? She said (if we are going to believe her) that she wanted to vote Lommy (but reconsidered after Mac has been voted for, since she thought there are double lynches possible), which happened at the time there were three leading subjects with equal votes: Mac, Lommy and Brinn. Sally voted Mac, saying she wants to preserve rather the latter two...

Also, Sally first questioned Lari's vote as "coming out of nowhere" (as it really was), after Lari saying "see above", she said "okay" and dropped the matter. But when somebody again brought up the fact that the vote is weird (this time because it was throwaway), Sally came again saying that she was about to say that. Doesn't it look weird? Perhaps, like a Wolf-Sally trying to keep her look as a "sensible player", questioning things which simply are weird and cannot be ignored, but at the same time not wishing to go against a fellow Wolf too sharply, unless other people do?

Also, whatever I was doing, I could not find her suspicions for Lommy before her first list, even though there, she says she suspects her "for reasons stated above", and later even says she wanted to vote her.

Looking through the first Day, also, Mira says something there which makes her look rather better for me - she criticises the sudden retractions for Gollum and talks about that there with Brinn; that looks un-wolfy to me (though Mira still could be Frodo). Sally quotes that and agrees on that later (though just agrees that "it is madness" or something of that sort), and on the second Day, Lari, in one of her first posts, criticises this retracting as well. Perhaps the Wolves had a moot overnight, where they agreed that "hey, Brinn, you look suspicious, it is possible you may go toMorrow, we shall all rather distance ourselves from you and also from the retracting, just like sally did". That could make good sense.

Lari marks also Sally and Brinn as innocent on the next Day. All right. I am not sure what to make of her flip-flop on Lommy (one Day she would vote her, she says; another she thinks her innocent). Her Durelin vote is quite weird, too.

And now, darn it, am I silly? The only thing Rikae had against her and Brinn being together was that she left her out of one list. I mistook the posts where they interact in an un-wolfish way with the ones about Nerwen! I should really post just when focused properly. Okay, now, that makes it even better...

I really start to consider Lari. I would say that some of these her posts today are what seems more genuine - these of toDay, in particular, these incriminating Rune things and such... the point is, I cannot imagine her doing these things deliberately, like, I mean, pretending them. They must be genuine, because they make no sense. Just like this thing of her leaving Brinn out of her list of people on Day 1. She explained that, whether we believe her or not is a different thing; but it is a bit too controversial, again, not careful for a Wolf. Though, who knows?

Lari, you have played once already, haven't you?

EDIT: x-ed with Agan. Haha! Now what was that...

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

The people that worries me the most right now is Beregond, Nerwen and Menel, all people whom I do not notice in the debates. Not only because they are bereft of internet acces, but also because there is noting that makes my eyes widen in their posts. I would feel best with lynching one of them, but it seems like such an easy and fruitless way out. So from the look of things I will have to make a hard decition and vote for Lari or Mira, which I have at times found wraith-like. Of course I could also vote for Legate, Aganzir or Greenie, but I really need another day to analyse their doings. I think the three of them look good, but I fear it might be like in FotR and that they should look fouler.

[Meneltarmacil]

Well, good thing Rikae took the heat off the actual Ranger last night.

I'm actually glad i *hic* mished the *hic* banter lasht time. Shhuch thingsh make my head hurt.

I don't have a lot of time, sho I'll jusht vote now, retracting if *hic* necceshary.

++Mirandir

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Why do you vote for Mirandir, any reason at all?

[Beregond]

I'm trying to read and respond while watching the Super Bowl, but I'm being bothered, giving me a headache and making it impossible to concentrate. I'm here and reading though.