Tol-in-Gaurhoth LIV: The Council of Evil

[Boromir88]

What do you mean you can't hijack the discussion Boro? ~Agan

Unlike tp, I can't continue to talk to myself. Last time, he pushed me to a higher activity than I thought was ever possible, that was because he was even more active. I need a partner so to say, and I was asking if you'd like the job.

Edit: crossed with Strongbow

[Boromir88]

Boro - Can't really tell: are you suspicious of me or no?~Strongbow

You bought yourself another day, from me at least, so to say. But I don't trust you - hopefully that makes a little more sense.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Tsk tsk, Boro, I wouldn't say not posting makes Nog & Shasta look innocent. It's possible (and more likely) that they just don't know the game has started, or have other hurries. Besides an evil Nog would be posting just as much or even more than an innocent Nog.

And your point is...?

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

I was wondering what the Serial Killer remark was supposed to mean. Mafia, right.

Ah, that explains it.

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Yeah, that was banter more than anything else. I would be very slow to suspect someone on such flimsy evidence.

Well, we don't have much else to go on- it's Day one and there's under 50 posts!

x-ed since last Bowie.

[Strongbow]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

You bought yourself another day, from me at least, so to say. But I don't trust you - hopefully that makes a little more sense.

We're golden now. Maybe not golden. Maybe brass.

And what did I tell you: deviousness. It stems from shrewdness and suspicion.

[Eönwë]

This probably the quietest Day of WW (or TiG, as I'm sure that's what Gollum would like it called) I've played in. Or maybe it just seems so after the last game. Nogrod hasn't even said one word!

There's not really much to say.

I think I'll go analyse the very small number of posts we have and make a list of what I'm gleaning from the posts so far.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I need a partner so to say, and I was asking if you'd like the job.

I do!
At least I can try to.

So right now I'm not worried about Bowie and Menel.

Boro, when you said to Bowie that the feeling (of slight suspicion) was mutual, what did you mean? If it wasn't a joke, could you elaborate a bit?
And I just can't for the life in me see how not posting should make Nog and Shasta look innocent. Unusual, yes, but it indicates nothing.

So I'm being disarming Ilya? Eek, time to do something about it.
You're one filthy werewolf and should die!!!! Immediately!!!!!


Unlike Ilya, I don't think Bowie's eagerness means he has a role. Besides, that can be a dangerous thing to say aloud, especially in a game with no ranger. The baddies will remember it when looking for possible targets.

I don't know about Ilya. She doesn't ring any alarms yet, though.

Eönwë my point is that I disagree with Boro calling Nog & Shasta innocent-looking because of their lack of posting. Screw that last sentence there, I'm tired.

I don't know about Brinn. On the one hand I'd like to trust that her happiness over not getting a role is real, but then again, it's just not enough. It's always hard to make up one's mind based on such statements.
And she voted for me and I know I'm innocent.
But I always suspect her.
So what? In this game she deserves it. :P

I'm actually feeling quite good about Eönwë. He seems to participate. And I know I can't know for sure because he's never been a wolf, but his behaviour looks rather normal. I believe he'd be somehow different as a wolf.

Also, we must not forget that also the wolves & bear can be somewhat honest about their suspicions as there is always a chance they hit their enemy.

Okay Nog just texted me. I got the impression he didn't know the game had started.

Of course I could text also Kath if need be as I happen to have her number as well... :-D

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

may the grace the Vala have bestowed upon me protect me now if my hasty judgement comes back to execute me in my slumber.

The Valar? Why have the Valar bestowed grace upon you? Mighty suspicious if you ask me.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Eönwë my point is that I disagree with Boro calling Nog & Shasta innocent-looking because of their lack of posting. Screw that last sentence there, I'm tired.

I was joking.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Okay Nog just texted me. I got the impression he didn't know the game had started.

Of course I could text also Kath if need be as I happen to have her number as well... :-D

If you hadn't already accepted the position of being Boro's partner, I would have said that we should appoint you Chief Texter.

[Eönwë]

Innocent
No-one seems too innocent.

Probably innocent
Boro- Posts a lot, and says quite a bit. He's off the hook for now.
Strongbow- He seems genuine, and is being oversuspected in my opinion.
Aganzir- Also posts a lot. She also seems quite innocent, but as much as Boro. She may be our werebear, but I doubt it. She was about to go in the category below, but after her seemingly innocent last post, I feel better about her.

Slightly Innocent
Ilya- That invisibility thing seemed genuine. But then it was only when I started looking at posts that I realised that she as flying under my radar (or reindeer, or fell beast for that matter)


Could be either
Brinn- Posts twice. Doesn't say much. Seems like she's trying to let off innocent vibes. But that doesn't necessarily make her evil.


No idea
Menel- Seems innocent, but I've never playeed with him before, so I don't know his tactics.

All those who haven't yet posted- Come on, post!

Slightly suspicious
Gwath- For one, he asks for info on the werebear and then attacks the answerer. Granted, Strongbow is a newbie (to WW, but not Mafia), but I think he definately overreacted.

Highly suspicious
Sadly, I can't find anyone suspicious enough for me to put here.


If there's anyone else, you are seriously under my radar, and are therefore highly suspicious in my eyes.



edit: didn't x-post with anyone. How depressing!

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

The Valar? Why have the Valar bestowed grace upon you? Mighty suspicious if you ask me.

You see, he's Alatar.

If you want me to be an official texter, I expect some pay.

Eönwë, why do you think I might be the bear? Why not a wolf?

Anyway I'm going to have a sauna now.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

You see, he's Alatar.

Oh, yeah! Now I remember.

All those years spent in a cave must have extinguished my brain.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I dare guess that if people were suspecting Bowie very much now because of that, you wouldn't be saying so.

Touche.

[Nogrod]

Lemme see, ain't there a party around? And nobody, ye nobody was telling me nothin' bout it. Manners... mind you! ... Or was me ol' me sleepin? I'd do with a shin or two to gnaw right now.

So we just vote right on or tomorroer? Don't you nobody suppose I know how to read anyway. Uh, too much to think... Blimey, me brain hurts! Let's just bang some heads together and see who stays standing the last?

*frowns with no one getting enthusiastic enough*

Okay, okay... I'll try that reading-stuff even if I don't see the point.

[Boromir88]

I do!
At least I can try to. ~Agan

If you are trying to manipulate me so you can devour me at night, I must say it's working.

Boro, when you said to Bowie that the feeling (of slight suspicion) was mutual, what did you mean?

Basically it is because of all the Gwath talk earlier. Someone in there is bound to be furry (either wolf or bear).

First you, Agan:

Also, I'm suspicious of Gwath because of his maybe-you-knew-because-you're-the-bear comment,

Gwath. Because of that "Maybe you are the werebear and that's how you knew." suggestion.

And then others start following suit:

I do find Gwathagor's accusation against Strongbow to be a bit out of line. It seems like Gwath is grasping at straws to find something to say, not unlike a traitor distracting us from his plans.~Menel

Gwath - I can't be sure of anything, but you don't trust me for my knowledge of the enemy. My eye is also on you, even more so than the Blue Wizard. - Suspicion~Strongbow

Gwath - I'm suspiciousish, but honestly I think it's because other people are suspiciousish of Gwath, and he looked guilty last game too, so I'm holding off on my pitchfork for now.~Ilya

Gwath- For one, he asks for info on the werebear and then attacks the answerer. Granted, Strongbow is a newbie (to WW, but not Mafia), but I think he definately overreacted.~Eonwe

Now with all those people announcing suspicion, logic plus a simple application of odds/statistics would say one is up to no good.

One of these days Gwath will turn up to be a baddie and it will come back to be the end of me, maybe that will be the end of me. However, I find it far more suspicious that we have all these numbers attaching on to the Gwath suspicion, than Gwath's own rather odd posts.

I know I said I would give Menel and Strongbow a pass today, but hey I'm more than willing to cancel that.

Of those, Eonwe looks the most innocent. He gives some reasonable logic to suspecting Gwath and Agan you first pointed it out. Plus your efforts to get some action today look good. If you are innocent, I would say they worked, I mean we don't have many posts, but you certainly got a lot of people talking about Gwath.

Menel accuses Gwath of grasping at straws, but that's a general accusation that can be applied to almost anyone, especially at Day 1. And I don't like the last phrase:

not unlike a traitor distracting us from his plans.

It looks like something Nogrod did to Gwath before. That is Gwath did this, and a wolf would do that, thus Gwath must be a wolf.

Strongbow makes it personal - that is since Gwath suspects him he suspects Gwath more than the Blue Wizard (me).

And I recant my trusting feeling about Ilya, because that just looks like an attempt to lynch Gwath but in the process not make herself too attached. That is saying Gwath is somewhat suspicious, but she won't pursue it further today. But, you encouraging others to go after Gwath if they want to - eh Ilya?

Edit: Crossed since Agan's #49

[Eönwë]

DL in half an hour, people!

[Strongbow]

(Cross my fingers that I don't cross with anybody)

Boro - either Gwath or I are furry, eh? You've already given me reprieve, so I don't think that today I'll make a putsch against you. I'm wary, but no longer suspicious.

Agan - first off: sauna's are instruments of evil. Everybody knows this. Now that that bit of important business has been cleared out, I'd have to say that you're directing the bandwagon to shed suspicion on Gwath. Not to say that I don't mind, seeing as Gwath went after me a bit.

Eonwe - says I'm being oversuspected. I like this. This not taken into consideration, Eonwe also doesn't really cause a blip on my radar for the moment.

Ilya - I'm up to something, apparently. Not so. Not suspicious, but not innocent enough for me.

Gwath - Says I'm the Bear, then goes to radio silence.

Basically, I don't think we should jump to conclusions. Who knows? We could be missing the villains altogether.

Edit: I forgot a bracket.

Edit2: For English! I forgot what it was in my Eonwe line.

[Eönwë]

Only 15 minutes left- hurry up!

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

DL in half an hour, people!

Really? I thought it would be like an hour and a quarter from this moment... Any other possible deadlines? Let's everyone have our own deadlines? I could push my DL for tomorrow.

[Eönwë]

Ok, I have to go now.

This seems to have been a very unproductive Day so far (and we only have a quarter of an hour left). Since my "list" post I haven't seen anything to really change my opinion, so I vote:

++Gwathagor

edit: x-ed. Really? Well, it's too late now. I might be back around if so, but I'm not sure.

[Aganzir]

I'm back.

No it's still a bit over an hour till deadline.

Off to read (not that there is much).

[Nogrod]

Where's that sneakin' lil' vermin when you need him? Hey you Gollum-creature, what's the deadline?

Only two votes in, right? So it's not DL yet says my troll-brain.

EDIT: X'd with Agan... okay someone else thinks the same, good.

[Gollum the Great]

Hmmmmm.......


I thought that the DL was in about an hour. Who made up this "in 15 minutes" thing? or perhaps someone thought we were still onto 5 PM EST.

[Nogrod]

A quick-list to get some order into my own head as well.

Aganzir - not a Day1 lynch. Should be left to the mercy of the bad baddies on the first Days.

Boromir88 - see Agan.

Brinniel - the sneakiest ever ww-player who once again looks soo genuine with her happiness about having no role. Should be lynched just to be sure.

Eonwë - tends to end up being an easy lynch in the erly Days and basically turns out innocent. Not my choice toDay.

Gwathagor - see Eonwë and multiply that bad luck times ten.

Meneltarmacil - see Eonwë.

Ilya - nothing to say thus far.

Isabellkya - not seen around...

Kath - see Izzy.

Sally - see Izzy.

Shasta - see Izzy.

Strongbow - newbies shouldn't be lynched on Day1 without good reasons.


Note1. Funny that people are kind of alphabetically organised in groups.

Note2. One third not posting on Day1 is bad. Although I wouldn't have posted either if Agan hadn't told me the game was on already. So I'm not holding it against them - nor do I hold it as an rgument for their innocence. For example I came online an hour ago or something and had no idea of my role as I logged in. So it's also perfectly possible they are in a same situation. And mathematically one of them at least is against us.

Note3. We seem to be facing even tougher choices than on normal Day1 because of the lack of posting / posters. But let's not call them random. Give reasons for your votes, please, even if they aren't heavyweight-stuff.

*goes back thinking*

[Aganzir]

Nog you're making me laugh an awful lot.

Originally Posted by Boro

If you are trying to manipulate me so you can devour me at night, I must say it's working.

Nah I'm a sweet little werewolf who'd never ever devour anyone.

My first comment regarding Gwath was more of an attempt to get some talk than a real suspicion. And although I have phrased it that way a few times, I don't think Gwath was suspecting Bowie - it could rather be interpreted as him trying to make others suspect him. Or then grasping at straws because there's nothing else.

I agree with Boro that Eönwë looks the most innocent of those who suspected Gwath.
I don't find Menel that suspicious either, mainly because I agree with him. But I do agree with Boro (gah why am I agreeing with him all the time again? I don't want to!) about the last phrase. It would look far less suspicious if it was "like a traitor &c" instead of "not unlike a traitor &c". Then again I find the way Menel phrases things always suspicious so I could give him the benefit of doubt for today.
At least Ilya is being honest, but I suspected her because of that in last game because honesty is as good a cover for a wolf as any.
I don't know about Bowie. In a way he seemed a bit overreactive given the amount of suspicion Gwath had expressed, but apart from that he's quite innocentish.

Originally Posted by Bowie

Agan - first off: sauna's are instruments of evil. Everybody knows this.

Bah no way! You're hurting my nationalist pride (earlier I wasn't aware I had any)!

Also, I don't think I'm directing the bandwagon to Gwath. I was the first to come up with the subject but I haven't been pursuing him since. And I'm unlikely to vote for him unless I really can't come up with anyone else.

edit: xed with Gollum and Noggins

[Gollum the Great]

I may be late to give an ending for the day by an hour or two, I'll be away from the internet and not a position to get at it. But with the extended night I don't think this should be a problem.

[Aganzir]

I assume we should stop talking in half an hour anyway?

Also Gollum, did the seer get to dream already although there was no official night (see, I keep asking you questions again although you're the mod )?

And Eönwë,

Eönwë, why do you think I might be the bear? Why not a wolf?

[Nogrod]

Blahh! The sporty-player in me tells me I should vote for Brinn or Ilya then.

Another choice is picking someone from that Gwath-waggon as I do also agree it looks more lupine than Gwath's original statement Agan pointed out. The wolves need easy and street-credible causes to use on Day1 and that one looks nice looking at the overall silence and uneventfulness of this Day. The problem is that we seem to have there the usual suspects once again...

Or maybe we should start on concentrating on this "let's suspect those who suspected Gwath of suspecting Bowie" -gang?

[Boromir88]

To be the unsporty one...

Isabellkya - not seen around...

Kath - see Izzy.

Sally - see Izzy.

Shasta - see Izzy.~Nogrod

I would have no qualms about voting for one of these four, the problem is anyone of them can just be oh so entertaining to have around.

Or, I guess Ilya.

I would think if one really wanted to be unsporty, the choice would be Gwath. (No offense meant Eonwe, just seems like he's been getting unjustly booted recently).

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Aganzir - not a Day1 lynch. Should be left to the mercy of the bad baddies on the first Days.

Bah people always want to get me killed by wolves! I'm much more useful alive, I tell you! Think how silent it will be later on when a third of the village is away the whole day and I'm dead.

Anyway I agree about practically everything on your list (garr I don't want to agree with people!).

Right now I think I could vote Brinn although I'm not all that sure about her either. But at least she voted for an innocent, and after her performance in last game I'm not that happy with giving her the benefit of doubt.

edit: xed with Nog & Boro

[Nogrod]

Of the Gwath-suspecters this looks to me the most lupine:

Originally Posted by Ilya

Gwath - I'm suspiciousish, but honestly I think it's because other people are suspiciousish of Gwath, and he looked guilty last game too, so I'm holding off on my pitchfork for now.

Nicely conditional formulation leaving a door open to act on it later as it would fit her ("no, I was not on him actualy, I said I was holding off" or "weel, as I said I have nothing better right now and I have alredy voiced my suspcion on him").

[Aganzir]

I rather didn't vote anyone who hasn't been around today. It's better to have at least a little suspicion than cast a completely random vote.

I could go for Ilya too, though.

Is there really no one else here but us three? Five votes cast out of 13 is quite a small number.

[Boromir88]

Bah people always want to get me killed by wolves! I'm much more useful alive, I tell you!~Agan

I could vote for you today and pull together a big mock-fight tomorrow to make the evil ones at night believe it's worth keeping you alive?

The benefit would be two-fold, it would save me from making a disastrous decision at the end for the ruin of all and it would certainly be helping you out. What say you?

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I could vote for you today and pull together a big mock-fight tomorrow to make the evil ones at night believe it's worth keeping you alive?

The benefit would be two-fold, it would save me from making a disastrous decision at the end for the ruin of all and it would certainly be helping you out. What say you?

But what if people thought you were serious and decided to lynch me?

[Boromir88]

I rather didn't vote anyone who hasn't been around today. It's better to have at least a little suspicion than cast a completely random vote.~Agan

Based on probability we'd probably have just a good of a chance of finding a furry one amongst those 4 than the 4 of the Gwath suspectors I talked about. And at least those 4 would be talking.

[Strongbow]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

[I don't know about Bowie. In a way he seemed a bit overreactive given the amount of suspicion Gwath had expressed, but apart from that he's quite innocentish.

Only because the finger that points to me will be cut down swiftly and surely.

This being said, I'm not really going to hound Gwath because of the radio silence. While lurking is a tell, it can also be a lack of time.

Ergo:

++Brinn

Last standing, first down. And a little to open about her roleclaims.

x'd with Boro and Agan.

[Aganzir]

Based on probability... Well true but I'm not doing it anyway. It'd feel unfair.

xed with Bowie. So it's now
Brinn: ++Agan
Eönwë: ++Gwath
Bowie: ++Brinn

[Boromir88]

To avoid a mass cross voting,

++Isabellyka

Sorry dear, this was a hat pull of the non-posters. Happy holidays and best wishes, no hard feelings.

Edit: crossed with Strongbow and Agan

[Eönwë]

Ok, I've returned. Sorry about all that confusion with the DL.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Eönwë, why do you think I might be the bear? Why not a wolf?

Well, you seemed to be playing more in the "I'm-in-this-for-myself-who-care about-anyone-else" style to me. You haven't done the whole "disassociating-myself-from-someone-but still-protecting-them"thing (well, maybe a bit with Boro), but then again, you probably wouldn't be so obvious.
Anyway, I rejected this idea- I don't think I made i that fact clear enough in my list though (I tried to do it in the last sentence, but it obviously didn't come out right).

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Bah people always want to get me killed by wolves! I'm much more useful alive, I tell you!

Now either I must have faulty logic toDay or... then this is físhy indeed!

[Nogrod]

If I'm around to watch you Boro toMorrow I will certainly use a magnifying glass for it! That vote was just an outrageous throw-away!

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Anyway, I rejected this idea- I don't think I made i that fact clear enough in my list though (I tried to do it in the last sentence, but it obviously didn't come out right).

Yeah I understood it, I was just curious.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Now either I must have faulty logic toDay or... then this is físhy indeed!

I was talking about my daily activity compared to many others. Sorry if I'm unclear, I'm tired.

Nog you always get more paranoid when the deadline draws near.