Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow.

[Glirdan]

I am now quite convinced I am the sanest man in this village.

And the Hedgehog Chieftain agrees with me.(Ang)

Just because I'm unemployed doesn't mean I'm not sane.

Tah for now! Oh just thinking to myself who would have the time on their hands to kill our Nilp? THE UNEMPLOYED that's who!(Valier)

Yes, because we're all not busy sleeping IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT!! Sheez!! Seriously Ang, I'm in major agreement with you. We are the only sane people in this village. Nilp got attacked AT NIGHT!! We WOKE UP to find him dead!! No one is stupid enough (until the lynching) to kill someone in broad day light!!

And I understand that everyone wants to honour our dead Prophet, but how can you do that if you're dead!? Seriously, I know it's only the first day, but I'm already angered!

[Gurthang]

Well, so far we have three candidates on the ballot, and it appears that two of them are campaigning hard. Politicians... *shakeshead* fools!

Yet to speak:
Farael
Glirdan
Kath
Caranlondien
tar-ancalime

Maybe I should vote for one of them, then they'd be more persuaded to speak up... (not likely)

Naria, calm thyself, or henceforth I shall viciously attack thy innocence.

Maybe we should vote TGWBS, he's probably pulling reverse psychiatry (I know that's not the right word) on us. 'No wolf would vote for himself!". Bah! I am unconvinced of that, but remain undecided.

[Gurthang]

Scratch Glirdan's name off that list... *cursescrossposting*

[Glirdan]

Yet to speak:
Farael
Glirdan
Kath
Caranlondien
tar-ancalime(Gurth)

You may want to take me off that list as I have spoken already...twice in fact.

Maybe we should vote TGWBS, he's probably pulling reverse psychiatry (I know that's not the right word) on us. 'No wolf would vote for himself!". Bah! I am unconvinced of that, but remain undecided.(Gurth)

I'm inclined to say that we leave him alone for the time being. I believe that, as Garin said, he's trying to honour our dearly departed Prophet.

[Glirdan]

Scratch that, I cross osted with Gurthang.

[Garin]

Garin no longer wishes to die.

Correction, I ALWAYS WISH I WERE DEAD, I am normally opposed to making that decision for myself.

I am not sure what advice to give the rest of the villiage, but I will be monitoring.

[Garin]

Glirdan: Yes, because we're all not busy sleeping IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT!!

Are you too busy PMing the other wolves?

[SamwiseGamgee]

Spawn, you have raised the issue that my suspicions of Cailin may have seemed baseless, due to a lack of evidence. So here we go: Posts #5 & #9 between them point the finger at eight- that's right, eight- different individuals. That's over one third of our village randomly accused by this little lady. That's at least a little suspicious, isn't it? Couple this with a very early vote and Cailin makes my list. Not my 'Is a wolf and must be horribly murdered' list, but at least my 'Ooh, that's odd' list.

Now Gurthang did make a valid point, as I see it: TGWBS's suicidal vote is, by any standard, somewhat odd. Yet surely no self-respecting wolf would try it? However, we can't rule out some absolutely crazy double bluff on day one. If TGWBS weathers this storm he could sail in smoother seas for a few days after it, so we must be careful.

My advice to my fellow villagers: be patient, and consider shrewdly your vote. Today, more than any other, we run a risk of killing two innocents by tomfoolery. We can't let that happen. So, wait as late as possible to vote and do so wisely.

[Caranlondien]

Alas for our poor prophet! But there are werewolves about, and we must overcome our grief...

Now, I must say, 'twould be utter foolishness to lynch the village's only proper lumberjack, for though Anguirel may spend his days in the woods, I've never seen him bring back so much as a log of fire wood! Indeed, this morning as I was gathering lumber, he was standing nearby talking to a dead tree stump, which he kept addressing as "Hedgehog Chieftan".

Although I agree that four wolves seems a mighty challenge for us, it does occur to me that these wolves will be greatly hindered by the fact that they have a traitor in their midst...

As far as the lover debate goes, I must say I think ‘tis rather silly to speak in terms of priorities. We must root out both the wolves and the lovers, and I see no reason why we cannot do both at once. Deciding to focus on either exclusively would be unnecessarily limiting and would overall hurt our chances of survival.

Now I'm off to hew some wooden stakes in case vampires should next appear in our fair town...

[Eonwe]

Not so my good lumberjack. As I understand it, the lovers are a team in and of themselve, meaning both must survive to win. Therefore, we can, I think, treat this game like anyother, making it our sole priority to weed out the wolves. For when we kill all the wolves, as we must, our traitorous villain's plans must come to naught.

Is it not reasonable to suspcet that there will be two male wolves and two female wolves? Maybe not, but how would you choose the Lovers, if one wolf must be the lover and the other lover must be of teh opposite gender?

EDIT: No, it is not reasonable to assume that. Nilp probably chose all four wolves, randomly chose the wolf lover out of those, and then randomly chose the human lover out of the pool of innocencts of the opposite gender.

[Anguirel]

Well, I've examined the chain of turbulent accusations linking Cailin and Samwise Gamgee, and am inclined to side with Cailin, as well as to suggest that everyone would profit from singing in a choir with antelopes.

Cailin acted with spirit and sagacity-as usual-within somewhat limited circumstances. The banker's attack on her-as Spawndress the Laundress said-is patchy and bedraggled.

However this doesn't necessarily condemn the banker, whom I'm prepared to accept as merely eager for now. My axe likes eager people. They put up a better fight before the crunching time comes...ha ha ha...

The other two episodes of interest have been Valier's possible hint of sinful and carnal and accursed Love with TGWBS, and the suicidal voting. Of course they might not be unconnected.

If TGBWS is a Wolf, then throwing himself into danger could be a strategy to keep Valier out of it. If he's a Lover, it's a quixotic gesture.

So say the hedgerows and the chirping sparrows.

But Garin's joining in...bizarre. I tend to trust that he just let his heart overtake his mind. If only people could be rational, like me and my friends the mauve reindeer.

[littlemanpoet]

The werewolves are understandably being very cautious today. I haven't found much. This is what I have so far:

Gurthang is being over-eager. That is no indictment of lycanthropy, just reminds me of me in past games. He has accused Guy and Valier of being the Lovers; his evidence leaves much to be desired. He's shooting blind, seems to me. (post #20)

Valier has accused "the unemployed". Quite random. (#19)

Samwise has accused Cailin with less than stellar evidence, as noted by Ang. (#25)

Lhuna suggested not spreading our voting out too far, but without suggesting specific parameters; this helps the village less than it appears to. (#3)

Eomer says not to lynch Lhuna toDay without saying why. (#14) A hypothesis for the Lovers could be built out of this, but that is all.

The following individuals have given substantive posts, to their credit:

Lalaith #4
Spawn #7, 17, 30
Cailin #9
Celuien #12
Kath #16
Samwise #48
Caran #49
Eonwe #50
Ang #51

Glad to see Ang not being quite so mad so as to not be helpful. This cannot be said of Guy, whose participation gets no better than this stone cutter's contempt. Garin has apologized for similar behavior, which is good.

[Lalaith]

Well, I'm going for an early bed-time tonight, and can no longer continue to vex myself over these conundrums. And I may not be here in time for the cut-off tomorrow, so to be safe I'll stick in my vote now.
For want of any better ideas, I'll follow tgwbs' suggestion. This copy-cat suicide outbreak seems very odd to me, anyhow.

++The Guy Who Be Short

[Anguirel]

Ah. LMP, my axe had forgotten about you...

I'm tempted to accuse you at once, but auld lang syne works better as a last minute swing than as the foundation for a denunciation.

Still, stone-cutter, I'm not a-liking your arbitrating tone of voice. ..

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by Eonwe

Not so my good lumberjack. As I understand it, the lovers are a team in and of themselve, meaning both must survive to win. Therefore, we can, I think, treat this game like anyother, making it our sole priority to weed out the wolves. For when we kill all the wolves, as we must, our traitorous villain's plans must come to naught.

While I agree that looking only for wolves would simplify things, I think that there are also some problems with exclusively looking for wolves. As we search for wolves, each of us has a set of "parameters", so to speak, that we think a wolf will fit. A lover-wolf will not necessarily fit those same parameters. He or she will behave differently than will the other wolves - for the lover-wolf has someone to be protected at all costs. Though all the wolves will likely try to protect each other, it is all right for them to make a sacrifice. For a lover, this is not acceptable.

In short, I think that while we're looking for wolves, we might miss the lover-wolf. So we should keep our eyes open for both.

[Valier]

Originally Posted by Garin

Agreed, I find it unlikely that a Lover would be so bold but from what I know of Valier ... I'm not convinced that her tendency toward unbridaled giddiness can be discounted.

Tsk! Tsk! Garin! You know me not then, for what possible harm could a small, sweet thing like me do? *bats eyelashes*

I may be sweet, but I am not in love! I just felt bad is all, for poor TGWBS who has gone and ripped out his beard. I said I would make some for everyone! Now I'm not so sure *pouts*

Why anyone would campaign for their own death baffles me. I shall read some more. I will say I will not vote for either "campaigner" today, that is just sillyness. They must be striken with grief over our prophets death.

[Eonwe]

Hm. Maybe you have a point. I hadn't thought of the the lover-wolf's point of view: he only wins if his partner is alive. Even if he survivse, and his lover is dead, he doesn't win, does he?

Either way, killing four must be done to win. Of course, it doen't hurt to assess someone based on what you think of as a wolf profile. That will only bring us one step closer to victory.

[Anguirel]

As I see it, suspicion is suspicion.

If we hang a Lover, luck is with us and we should praise the Gods of the Thickets and Mushrooms.

And if we hang a wolf, likewise.

But by every hedgehog in yonder wood, I swear we'll oft find Lover where we thought to find wolf, oft Wolf where we ought to find lover, and more often innocent instead of either.

The wisest suggestions can be the largest mistakes. There's no such thing as concentrating on lovers or wolves. Nor even as concentrating on lovers and wolves. Some will wrong and some be wronged.

And the innocent will be throttled, inevitably, as Nilp was. So this is a futile discussion over hypothetical catches in a wide and hostile realm of possibilities.

I go to slay a boar and drink its blood. Mead lacks in hard times, but boar's blood never lets a man down.

[Anguirel]

It cannot be stressed enough, Eonwe, wayfaring stranger-if one Lover dies, the other perishes too. Twould be sad were it not so twisted...

[Eonwe]

Indeed, well said, Ang. You put my points most sucinctly.

Guy Who Be Short, is of course, baffling me. I have my suspicions as to his motives, but I will withhold them until I deem the time right.

Edit and cross posted: Ah-ha, now we have the full truth. So one dies when the other dies, very interesting.

[Garin]

Ah-ha, now we have the full truth. So one dies when the other dies, very interesting.

Thanks for finally doing your homework. Thusly, killing either lovers would benefit us because we would be down one wolf, one innocent but still up two seers.

Sounds good to me.

[Eonwe]

Originally Posted by Garin

Thanks for finally doing your homework.

Did I mention I was a lazy way-faring stranger? Coincidentally, I just copied Ang's...

[Kath]

Garin, even if both Lovers die if one is killed, it is still better to go after the wolvish Lover than the innocent one, as there is a higher chance of finding that one. Also, I didn't understand the two Seers comment, why should they be affected?

[Formendacil]

Hmm....

How does one post posts of sustantial content on Day 1? Unless someone is foolish enough to make some major slipups (and that's unlikely in a village this experienced), there is no reason as yet to start jumping on people's cases. Glirdan, for example, is chronically known to overreact to accusations. Until another day has passed and we see the death of another of our number, there is no point or reason to trying to analyze each other's votes. All we can do is make a lot of senseless noise, post a vote, and then move on to the Night....

Or one can post suggestions about how to make Day 1 more useful and helpful. Quite frankly, I have nothing in common with such suggestors. A look over my Day 1 record will reveal a good deal of irreverence on them. I'm not, by and large, inclined to take them overly seriously.

Of course, I must at some point in this Day vote. Here's my list of candidates:

dancing spawn of ungoliant: With a name like that she's probably evil, and ought to be killed, but her being Nilp's paramour and all, I think that, on this day of mourning at least, I shall give her a bye.
Kath: Perenially suspicious, typically an Ordo- typically quiet. We may as well lynch her and have done with it.
Lhunardawen: Dear little sis... Like one Eomer of the Rohirrim I cannot vote for thee so soon, and with no reason. But think not that mine brotherly ways shall save thee if a Wolf thou art!
Caranlondien: A newcomer to this realm. I'll let her have a full day at it rather than casting my random vote at the newbie.
tar-ancalime: A witch, and a history of being a Werewolf. A tempting vote, if only to be safe...
Cailín: Always a suspicious player, but so typically an Ordo (but not always...). Not crossing her off as the "recipionist" of my vote today.
Celuien: A frog and a psychiatrist? Typically Ordo, though...
Naria: Always vaguely suspicious. One is inclined to vote her off just to clear the waters a little.
Valier: Suspicious this one can be, but transparent is more accurate, I'd say- a transparency that some paranoid players translate into suspicion. She'll not get my vote- today.
Lalaith: The epitome of the quiet wolf- if she is one. Otherwise, seems fated to be an ordo. Killing her may be advisable just to make sure she's not a Wolf again...
Thinlómien: Don't know her playing style well. I'll leave her be this day, at least.
Garin: His playing style begs suspicion- always and everytime. And his track record's not so good either (two out three times as a Wolf- I think?). A consideration...
Formendacil: Unless I did a Nilp, this would not even be a consideration, and since doing a Nilp has already been done, I clearly can't do that. Too easily misconstrued as a cop-out.
littlemanpoet: Verbal, noisy, and confident player, but not one to be stereotyped as an Ordo. I'll pass him by today if only to keep his keen brain around.
Glirdan: As previously mentioned, he's perennially jumpy. Looks completely normal thus far. No vote from me...
Farael: Why do I suspect him of developing an SPM-complex, of "Never having been a Wolf, so must be an Ordo"? He's a possibility for the random vote...
Anguirel: Typically a very keen player, one the Wolves should fear. I see no reason to think him anything but an innocent- save maybe that he's being a bit more helpful than he usually does on Day 1. Not enough reason to receive my random vote, that.
Eomer: With his wolfing record, he'd be a possibility for today even if I was Seering Partner with him. Definitely a possibility.
Gurthang: Been an innocent all the times I've played with him, but Gurthang does tend to attract suspicion. Too early to say...
the guy who be short: Don't trust anything this Guy says, unless he's given a clear bill of non-Wolfishness by a Seer- then listen to everything he says.
SamwiseGamgee: Never played with him before. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for today...

So, that leaves me with Kath, Tar-Ancalime, Cailín, Celuien, Naria, Lalaith, Garin, Farael, Eomer, Gurthang, and TGWBS- more than enough people to be going on with for a Day 1. No real suspicions here, just reasons ever so slightly better than the people crossed off the list.

I shall return.

[Anguirel]

But, Garin, I must stress that killing a Lover specifically, rather than a wolf, is bound to be a matter of chance, and so in terms of strategy, it is probably wiser to defend ourselves with well-trained warrior ferrets.

This village is a snakepit with a few gold and silver ingots in it. If you plunge in your hand and emerge unharmed with a silver ingot, are you really likely to complain that you didn't get a gold one?

Really, Garin, if I didn't know it was just like you, I'd think this stubbornness of yours to prolong debate over a barren issue was most suspicious...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

My defence of Lhuna was overdue, for everytime in the game of Werewolf I attack her with wolvish ways.

Probability dictates that she is finally a werewolf now...but I'm willing to play along.

Nothing much interesting has happened yet, apart from TGWBS and Garin's votes for themselves. Could be wolvish attempts to hide but I'm inclined to leave them for the moment.

They might be pursuing a strategy. At least, their behaviour might tell us something

This is my strategy: I will not explain it just now, I will merely hope that at least a few other villagers will understand what I'm trying to do.

See how it's followed up, you know?

++LITTLEMANPOET

Probably quite a dangerous thing to do, but apart from my royal ways (and my magnificent skill with music and singing and arts in general; as well as my pleasant demeanour and delightful good looks) I'm expendable.

Just....don't think this is too weird, ok? Think about what I'm doing and what it could do for the village.

And good night! Let's catch a wolf.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

Ah. LMP, my axe had forgotten about you...

I'm tempted to accuse you at once, but auld lang syne works better as a last minute swing than as the foundation for a denunciation.

Still, stone-cutter, I'm not a-liking your arbitrating tone of voice. ..

A thousand pardons, my dear crazy man. I seek no quarrel with you. Let us be after the werewolves instead of each other, what say?

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

This is my strategy: I will not explain it just now, I will merely hope that at least a few other villagers will understand what I'm trying to do.

See how it's followed up, you know?

++LITTLEMANPOET

If you feel you must. 'Twould be a shame if it backfired...

[Anguirel]

You mortally insult me, churl. But I don't trust the harper who accuses ye one bit, so I shall continue to remain aloof, with the backing of my uncle the North Wind.

[Farael]

Alright, here I am. And here are my first day ramblings

TGWBS YOU DESERVE TO DIE. It was MY act, MY time to shine by being Nilp.... but no, you just had to take it, hadn't you?

Still, I believe you innocent, you are just playing your role... and as a matter of fact, I was looking forward to send the village on a spin of confussion by playing out my own role

Which brings us to suicidal maniac number two

Garin, smart wolvish Garin.... you know that the best way to get past day one is to pull a Nilp or a Farael.... namely, either vote for yourself or go to strong against someone at random (hopefully a wolf, as it happened with a wolf called Aiwendil.... or so the histroy books say). Both strategies will make you look pretty innocent, at least during the first few very random days. I shall not vote for you right now, Garin the very likely wolf, at least until I have heard some more from the rest of the village. Having said that, there is one last individual that concerns me greatly

Originally Posted by Anguirel

The varmint claims to have disguised a were-army of hedgehogs under green shells and hidden them in a turtle farm. What d'ye have to say to that, Empress Kath of the Dread Meerkat Wandering Horde? Ha ha!

Now, this is highly suspicious. Here comes Anguirel, being all random and accuses Kath of being involved with a were-army. Now, you all know my reputation of grasping at straws and making unreasonable cases against... PEOPLE WHO TURN OUT TO BE WOLVES.... and so, here I go again. My first read of this was "Hmmm, Anguirel is one of the seers and he has caught a wolf, so he's leaving a hint that it will be pretty evident once he's dead" But then I realized.... the 'hint' is pretty evident now and he's still alive!! Furthermore, what are the odds of a seer catching a wolf on the first night? one in twenty? and why choose Kath? There are sure more dangerous *ahemLMP-Formendacil-Anguirel himselfahem*individuals. (no offense meant Kath)

Thus, I must conclude that to me, Anguirel's behaviour is that of a wolf hinting at giftedness.... and then over-acting his "randomness" so that if the seers come out he'd be able to say "Well no, I was just being random... day 1 you know"

Anguirel, I believe you are smart and cunning enough to do something like that. But I won't let you. Be aware.

[SamwiseGamgee]

I see your game, Eomer, but I shall err on the side of caution for the moment.

Let me right now, in front of all the village, point out that my comments on Cailin were merely suspicions, not accusations, and were made at a time when there was nothing much happening really. Later posts were an attempt to clarify, that's all.

Farael I shall disagree with you. I think Ang is keen and looking to the greater good of the village. And if in your mind you're thinking 'May be gifted' don't vote, not on day one- that would be folly.

[Farael]

I beg to differ, Master Gamgee as I don't think Anguirel IS gifted.... that was my first impression, but it has changed since then. That's exactly what Anguiel-the-one-who-may-or-maynot-be-a-wolf is aiming at.... when in doubt, don't risk going for a possible gifted. Of course, he will say "oh, no... I'm not gifted at all" and then proceed to send another of his "hints".... that way he will keep us doubting long enough. You are playing right into his hand.... is there anything you would like to tell us, mister hobbit? maybe not only your feet are furry, eh?

[Garin]

Kath: The two seers comment explained. Even if we kill an innocent lover we'll have three wolves versus two seers at that point. I like our (meaning villagers) chances, if that is the case.

I am inclined to trust Anguirel at this point but I am not flogging a dead issue as long as others continue to talk about it.

Killing the innocent lover would be the same as a double lynching. In those cases we can only hope to kill at least one wolf.

BUT YES, we should concentrate on the lupines and not this star-crossed lover.

"Who are the wolves? A show of hands please...."

EDIT: "paws please...."

[SamwiseGamgee]

It's a fair point well taken, Farael. As Garin, I'm inclined to believe Ang and let sleeping dogs lie. As for my hair growth, good sir, that is something which only my good lady wife shall ever know!

[Kath]

Well now this presents a problem. Having not seen Garin's reply til just now I was quite prepared to vote for him over that Seer comment, but yet again it was my misunderstanding that was causing all the problems

But, this means I have about 3 minutes before I have to put the turtles to bed (I won't be back again toDay) and no genuine suspect. I don't want to be purely random as that will be no help to anyone. Therefore I shall vote

++EOMER

Because (though I think this is repeating a past argument) if he's a wolf then better to get rid of him now, and if he's an innocent we won't be worrying about whether he's a wolf for the rest of the game! A hedging your bets argument it is I'll admit, but it's all I have.

[SamwiseGamgee]

Well I must head to slumberland right now, but I hope to be back before night falls. I would vote now and get myself an extra hour in bed, but I just can't justify voting for anyone at the moment. What a curse has befallen us, fellow villagers. Oh, angst!

[Garin]

Hello..

You Wolves haven't raised your paws yet!!???!!
Times a' wasting.
Sometime today please.

Kath, we seem to be on permanently different wavelengths, thanks for allowing me to counter and explain my statement.

No, I ain't no wolf and am dumbfounded as to why anyone would think such a thing .

My suicidal bid was an emotional one and I didn't allow myself to recover properly from The Guy's declaration. I am still baffled and I suppose we should see it to fruition or be forever tortured by "what ifs?'.

Call it Nilp (RIP) fever, because it felt like an illness.

[tar-ancalime]

It appears I'm the last to arrive.

I seem to missed out on most of the Day 1 sad hurlyburly, and can step back to comment on what I've seen so far.

First, Farael:

Alright, here I am. And here are my first day ramblings

TGWBS YOU DESERVE TO DIE. It was MY act, MY time to shine by being Nilp.... but no, you just had to take it, hadn't you?

Still, I believe you innocent, you are just playing your role... and as a matter of fact, I was looking forward to send the village on a spin of confussion by playing out my own role

It's the "spin of confusion" that bothers me. There are three groups of people in this game with three distinct goals:

The wolves want to feast on fresh villager meat.

The innocents want to escape from the horrible fate that awaits us if we don't kill the wolves.

The lovers want to be united in a bloody wedding when everyone else is dead.

Which of these teams benefits most from a "spin of confusion?" I can tell you, it ain't the villagers. I don't know if you're a wolf or not, Farael, but if you're an innocent villager then your goal shouldn't be to create confusion for the other villagers. We're the only ones without some kind of special information--the only ones you'd be confusing are the innocent. I'm tempted to vote for you just for that comment and the suspicion I have that you'll follow it up.

Anyone who thinks it will be more fun to confuse people than to catch werewolves isn't an asset to this village. Even if his role is "innocent." Call me cold-blooded, but if you ain't with us, you're agin us.

Having gotten in trouble in the past for laying out suspicions in strong language and then voting elsewhere, I think I"d better follow through this time:

++Farael

[Garin]

Bravo Tar!

I try to avoid retribution votes but saw abnormalities in Farael's posts.

I know it he hasn't voted for me but he pretty much declared me a wolf.

Nice to see the votes spread out.

Edit :

Samwise:As Garin, I'm inclined to believe Ang and let sleeping dogs lie.

I'm assuming you meant "as for Garin" and thanks for the slight vote of confidence but in this scenario I could use a better analogy than 'let sleeping dogs lie.'

No hard feelings. YET>

I'll prove to be more of a cat person.

[tar-ancalime]

Bravo Tar!

Garin approves of me. Should I be worried?