Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVIII: The Play’s The Thing…

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

I'm pleasantly surprised that random accusations aren't just flying around although they may sometimes prove helpful, too. It's time for a little summary about what has been said toDay:



lmp: Gives a rather glum speech and wants everyone to buy a silver knife. Says the Seers cannot be trusted, but they should remain hidden. However, the Seers should leave subtle clues that help us when they're dead. Disagrees with Glirdan's "lynch the quiet ones" suggestion because we can't know how the wolves will act. Thinks that wolves can usually be spotted based on how they suspect others or make theories how a lycan could act. Thinks Aiwendil's questions make him look innocent. Somewhat agrees with spreading the votes widely, agrees with Sauce on the voting. Also agrees with tar-a's suggestion to act as though we didn't have the Seers, but says that the usual Seer talk may help us to find the wolves.

Anguirel: Talks about bank stuff, thinks Polonius was an idiot. Disagrees with lmp that stating possible wolf strategies is necessarily wolvish. Agrees with tar-a's Seer plan, wants the Seers to talk "with manifold, contorted tongues". Says it's ludicrous to think that the wolves are acting collectively instead of taking different approaches on the situation based on their skills.

Glirdan: Laments for the dead, says we're in a terrible state, but luckily we have the Guardian and the Hunter. Wants to lynch the silent ones. Votes for Gil because of his occupation.

- Well, I assume the vote was due to his occupation because at this point Gil hasn't even spoken yet, although I think he might be trying to get rid of a not so talkative villager because of... hmm, some bad memories. -

Boro: Promises to authorize all lynchings if there's enough proof of wolvery, prefers a noose to lmp's knives. Says that the discussion has been good, but nothing new has been said. Thinks Sauce is innocent and mormegil, Glirdan, lmp and Gil has acted as usual. All in all thinks that everything seems (even a bit too) usual. Says the false Seer can cause a whole lot of confusion, would trust the Seer to authorize the lynching of a wolf, but as long as we don't know who the false Seer is, it's problematic.

tar-a: Says she's safe from the wolves although stresses the word EX-leper. Says fear and money are great motivators although she has just the fear part of the combination. Thinks we should act as though we didn't have the Seers at all. Says the wolves are looking for the Seers, but not too hard because they want to keep us in doubt. Doesn't think tha we should suspect those who disagree with the "we have no Seers" plan or those who seem to be calling out the Seers because it's too easy for the wolves. Doesn't think we can decide what's suspicious and what's not.

Aiwendil: Says random accusations are useless for innocents, wants to have serious discussion, asks questions about good ways to spot a wolf, how the Gifteds should act and how to vote. Wants to spread votes wider than lmp and thinks approx. 5-6 is a good number. Thinks we don't have to worry about the false Seer so much even though they might cause confusion. Says there's no need to stop talking about the Seers although they should remain hidden. Says the Seer is most useful when they're dead and we can be sure of their identity.

- Although lmp and Lhuna seem to think that Aiwendil is innocent because of the questions he asked, I think it would be a good way for wolves to poll people what they think to be suspicious and ask how the Gifteds are probably acting and then adjust their behaviour to look innocent based on the answers.
I agree about the Seer thing, though. We're in a tricky situation. If someone steps forth and says that they're the seer, no one can know if they're telling the truth. -

Sauce: Wants everyone to step forth to talk and vote, wants people to spread their votes and understands Glirdan's suggestion to kill the silent people, but doesn't quite agree. Referring to Aiwendil's questions says that we should focus on everything people say and do and finds the voting record impostant. Trusts the Gifteds' own judgement to decide how to act, thinks everyone should vote in a way that seems best to them.

Kath: Says that it's a bad thing that we have wolves here, but is happy as long as her honey business is safe.

morm: Brags about his soldier skills, says that two of Gil, tar-a, Celuien and Holby are wolves. Says soldiers are better than knights and thinks that Lhuna's proudness may mean that she has pointed ears. Also says that everyone except Gil has answered his accusations as expected,but doesn't reveal his thoughts of them yet.

Farael: Tries to rid us of the wolves with Chemistry, isn't convinced that tar-a's an EX-leper and therefore wants to prepare sulfonamides for her.

Gil: Says that he admires lupines, but doesn't want to be one, warns Glirdan about senseless voting.

Holby: Defends herself against morm's accusations. thinks that it's supicious when people take accusations that are presented jokingly too seriously.

- If you mean that when someone who is being accused as a joke takes it seriously, it's wolvish, then I agree. However, I don't think that other villagers should disregard the accusations that people say against each other even though they seemed like a joke. -

Wants the Gifteds to lay low, but not too much (or Glirdan will want to lynch them). Doesn't want them to be obvious but clear enough although they shouldn't get themselves killed. Says that if the Seers are in danger of getting lynched, they should reveal themselves and provide us a list of their dreams, thinks spreading the votes is good.

Celuien: Laments over the dead, defends herself against morm's accusations, says tar-a and Ang look much more suspicious than her, says the Gifteds should stay hidden.

- Hmm, morm's accusation was a joke (I should think). Why is Celuien trying to shift "suspicion" on tar-a and Ang? -

Lhuna: Claims to be an extraordinary villager and she must not end up dead in any case. Says Glirdan should be lynched for his suggestion and laments the time zones.

- I don't think Glirdan meant you, Lhuna, with lynching the silent ones... right now you've spoken the most. -

Agrees completely with Sauce on focusing on everything although warns about analyzing too much what people say, agrees with tar-a concerning the Seers and with lmp on Aiwendil looking innocents. Threatens people if they should suspect her for voting early. Answers morm's accusations, says that people shouldn't insult Formendacil and wonders how the wolves will react to the village acting like it had no Seers. Says the wolves are hunting for both Seers and probably will go after the quiet ones first. Wonders if we should take a look at those who are calling out the Seers or disagree with tar-a's suggestion. Votes for Glirdan whom she thinks to be most likely innocent. Forbids anyone to suspect her because of her vote.

Nilp: Asks Sauce's opinion of his sign, wants to sing a ballad and votes for Farael as promised.

***

I'm a bit surprised that so many people are giving advice for the Gifteds about how to act. I'm sure they can decide themselves what to do better than us who don't actually even know who they are and how they usually act. This is not "hide the Gifteds". We are trying to find the Wolves. I'm sure the Gifteds can manage on their own pretty well, so let's leave them for a while and focus on the possible wolves, shall we?

More thoughts later.

Edit: Sauce and Boro's last posts aren't included in my summary.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Good heavens! What has happened to our beautiful home? Monsters and demons, O my! I warned you, I warned you all! Our Holy Lord will not stand for such wickedness and debauchery as has been demonstrated here in recent times. Whither morality, I ask? It is not too late, though. My Church will forgive and welcome all sinners (especially at this time when the funds are running low).

Now, to catch these wolves.

My ancestors (at least those who were genuinely trying to catch wolves ) all told me a similar story, that being that other villagers will ridicule you for trying to read too much into Day One's discussion; and they were bitter and furious about it! For sure, we don't have voting records or tell-tale deaths to work with, but we certainly have the 'feel' of the village to gauge. That is why I will always try to imagine What would a wolf do? How would a wolf post? And if that makes someone in this village suspicious of me then I say: Don't be silly! I believe (and please debate this with me) that on Day One, wolves are going to be mostly timid: not too keen on offering big ideas, convoluted strategies, or hardline accusations.

Of course, there's not a lot to work with, but I totally disagree with those who lament poor discussion as being 'Just a Day One.'

*looks sharply at Lhuna*

*is quickly defeated in the staring-contest because of her beauty and power*

Goodness gracious me, what am I saying? The lovely Princess has ever been a friend of the Church. And it simply would not be right to lynch a being of such majesty, would it? Now Princess, about the state of my church...

[Holbytlass]

Thank you, Spawn, for the summary. It certainly has brought up a bit of questionable behavior to light that would need further analyzing.

Originally Posted by Dancing Spawn

- If you mean that when someone who is being accused as a joke takes it seriously, it's wolvish, then I agree. However, I don't think that other villagers should disregard the accusations that people say against each other even though they seemed like a joke. -

True, but what I was trying to explain as another wolvish behavior for example:a third person trying to get Mormegil lynched based solely on his obvious joking-type random accusations to get discussions started, especially if the village as a whole feels what Morm did was harmless-that third person seems wolvish.

[tar-ancalime]

dancing spawn, I'm sure you put a lot of work into that and I do appreciate that.

However, what exactly are we supposed to take from it? All you've done is summarize today's posts, out of order. You seem to have given equal weight to the very first few posts of the Day (in which people are, as usual, drawing heavily on occupations for the sake of having something to write about), and the posts that followed in which we (lamentably) discussed the Seer situation. I just don't see what a summary like that can tell us.

Now, on to other matters:

Originally posted by The Man with the Pans, directed at Elempi:

Too much Seer talk can only help the Wolves. How do you envisage that it might ensnare them? Surely it is better to focus our discussions on who might be the Wolves, rather than on how the Seers should be behaving.

You know, I'm with you, Saucey. The more time we spend on "who's the Seer? What should s/he do?", the less time we spend on "Who's a wolf? What are they up to?"

But on the other hand...

lmp's comments are not to be dismissed. It might be that early Seer talk could become useful later in the game as an artifact, once some identities (preferably at least one wolf) are known. We could look to see who was most eager to deflect discussion onto the Gifteds, for example.

But that's going to be true of every kind of discussion, and I just don't think it's a compelling argument. In the end Saucey is right. We've got to focus on lynching a wolf tonight and creating a useful voting record.

The above is my last Seer-related comment. I'm done. (That's there to keep me honest--as strongly as I feel about this, I know I'm as susceptible as anyone to getting drawn into ongoing discussions. Maybe I'll be able to refrain if I've got this statement on the record.)

Now, to matters at hand--

Something about dancing spawn's post really rubs me the wrong way. It's so long, so intricate, and so devoid of any new information. Being as it's the first day and all, and as my vote is going to have to come in the next few hours, unless I see anything that compels me to place my vote elsewhere I'm likely to go with the dancing spider.

[Anguirel]

It must be admitted that Her Royal Highness' choice of vote is a strange and unhappy one.

On this day when the field is open and the evidence flimsy, why target a musician, whose songs and tunes will help allay the sorrows of these times? If all the world's a stage, Glirdan's art will liven that stage. We would be fools to rid ourselves of him without a solid basis.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Holbytlass

True, but what I was trying to explain as another wolvish behavior for example:a third person trying to get Mormegil lynched based solely on his obvious joking-type random accusations to get discussions started, especially if the village as a whole feels what Morm did was harmless-that third person seems wolvish.

I agree with that.

tar-a, I certainly don't know if you can get anything out of the summary. However, it helps me to gather my thoughts, and when I list the posts like that, it's easy to see if people have really said something useful in their posts or are they just babbling something about their occupations, because to me those who post much yet say little are the most suspicious ones. The summary is in the most logical order I could think of: it's the order in which people made their first post toDay.

Also, when I hopefully can come up with a decent theory during a Day, I find many of the things I use as an argument in one post and I don't have to browse the whole thread through when trying to find something. So, I guess I've always done those summaries for selfish reasons, but if they happen to help other villagers to gather their thoughts as well, it's all the better.

[Anguirel]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I believe (and please debate this with me) that on Day One, wolves are going to be mostly timid: not too keen on offering big ideas, convoluted strategies, or hardline accusations.

Nonsense, priest! A wolf plays to their strengths, pure and simple, and their enjoyments and appetites. If one of the wolves is of the type who likes to confuse and irritate his fellow-villagers with a master-plan or a good deal of loquacity, rest assured he will. The situation of being outnumbered and unleashed by day can prompt wolves to stunning and unheard of talkativity. As you well know, I deem.

[Gil-Galad]

++Glirdan



too wolfish for me, i don't quite trust him, hes acting somewhat rash, either hes a confused vilalger or more probably the cobbler

[The Saucepan Man]

I guess that the time has come for me to share my thoughts on my fellow villagers. We are, of course, still at a very early stage, but this is the way I am currently thinking.

Farael: Not a lot to go on. I would still like to hear more from him.

Mormegil: Nothing out of the ordinary from morm so far. I have no particular reason to suspect him at this stage.

Aiwendil: Has prompted some useful debate on strategies which is, frankly, more helpful on Day 1 than random accusations. That said, his comments did also prompt all this Seer talk, which I don’t like. I am keeping an eye on him.

Glirdan: His behaviour seems too risky for a Wolf to me. If a Wolf had to vote early, why vote for someone who generally comes under suspicion as a matter of course and so could well end up being lynched? It could be a bluff, but I’m inclined to think not for the moment.

Formendacil: Hmm, I would have hoped for something a bit more constructive. Reserving judgment for now.

Dancing spawn of ungoliant: Unlike tar-ancalime, I found her summary quite useful. Particularly as she included some of her own thoughts, which seemed sensible and some of which struck a chord with me. Coming across as innocent, although that always makes me worry.

Nilpaurion Felagund: Most likely innocent, in my view. He knows why.

Lhunardawen: I remain concerned over her vote for Glirdan. I am also puzzled as to why she felt so threatened by Glirdan’s suggestion to lynch the quiet ones, when she has been one of the more talkative villagers to date. A bold Wolf, if she is one, but it’s possible.

Eomer of the Rohirrim: Not really enough to go on at the moment, although I would agree with his general approach to catching Wolves.

Littlemanpoet: Guilty, obviously. That said, I am uncomfortable with the way that he seems to have fanned the flames of the Seer debate. And I don’t like the way that he suggested that trying to think how a Wolf might act could be a sign of Wolfish behaviour. How else are we to catch these beasts? One to watch.

Kath: Nothing to go on. Again, I would like to hear more from her.

Garin: Still hasn’t graced us with his company, although there may well be good reason for that. Reserving judgment.

Holbytlass: Reacted slightly defensively to morm’s random accusation, but not to the degree that Celuin did. I am not reading too much into that at the moment.

Anguirel: A bit mercenary, but has generally talked good sense, albeit in a rather flowery fashion. No strong suspicions at the moment.

Celuien: Like dancing spawn, I was struck by her attempt to divert attention from herself to tar-ancalime and Anguirel in response to morm’s accusation. Has otherwise remained quiet. Looks suspicious as matters stand, but I would like to hear more from her.

Tar-Ancalime: I generally agree with most of what she has said, although I am not quite sure what she sees in dancing spawn’s post to make her suspect her quite so much. That concerns me, but for now I will give her the benefit of the doubt.

Gil-Galad: Very little to go on, as usual. His reaction to Glirdan’s vote seemed measured in the circumstances, but that is all he has contributed so far.

Boromir88: Hasn’t said too much yet, but what he has said has seemed sensible. Not sure what he means about everything being “usual … too usual”. Isn’t that what we should expect on Day 1? Still, no particular reason to suspect him.

Edit: Cross-posted with Gil-Galad and his vote, which looks decidedly un-measured ...

[tar-ancalime]

dancing spawn, you had me at "gather my thoughts." I can certainly understand that, and while my vote today is going to be somewhat random no matter what, I would rather not cast it for you.

++Eomer of the Rohirrim

Mostly random, Eomer, but I have to say: if you're innocent I'm glad to have you on my team, but if you're not I want you out of here before you even get started.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Gil

++Glirdan


too wolfish for me, i don't quite trust him, hes acting somewhat rash, either hes a confused vilalger or more probably the cobbler

Ahem... according to our Moddess Goddess we don't have a cobbler in this village, I believe.

[Anguirel]

I would like to point out that I myself don't see much sign of malign intent in Celuien's so-called "diverted accusation" to tar-ancalime and I. As far as I can see, Celuien, accused via occupational banter, brushed it off via occupational banter, onto others, by using their occupations. I don't discern any real evidence in that...

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

I disagree that trying to discover wolves by empathatic thought experiment is necessarily wolvish. It can simply be an effective way of exploiting what we know of character and likely strategy to our benefit.

I've fallen behind but will catch up, responding to one post at a time.

As to your rebuttal to me retort, Anguirel, I was saying that it helps me lean. By itself it is not enough, but in concert with other signs it ways the more heavily.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

I disagree (with LMP). Too much Seer talk can only help the Wolves. How do you envisage that it might ensnare them? Surely it is better to focus our discussions on who might be the Wolves, rather than on how the Seers should be behaving. ... I will be keeping an eye on those who seem to be encouraging this talk of Seers. *Glares at littlemanpoet and Aiwendil*

SPM, if you agreed with me at any point in time about anything, I would be greatly surprised. So that aspect of things is unchanged.

To answer your "envisage" question, however, I don't. I wait to see what I will see. If I "envisage" how I think things ought to look, it tends to limit my ability to see what's staring me in the face. Such as this: there's something about SPM that just seems a little off (this game). I can't really explain it, but will be reviewing his posts much more carefully. Things sound and look the same on the surface, but there's an undercurrent that I can't quite put my finger on, and it makes me wonder if he's furry. I'll be watching. Carefully.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Anguirel, I hear you. But I do suppose that the burden of being a wolf would cause any player a worry, and a tendency to blunt their words. I expect many 'Ooh, I'm sorry for voting this way's and 'I'll vote for you but I'm really not sure's—that kind of thing from any wolf, as long as they are not bold. I suppose that at least one and probably more are going to be extremely 'friendly', if you understand me.

Tar-ancalime, my worthy healed child, what has this Priest (who prayed for you every day) ever done to deserve such a vote? Seriously, I would have thought that my posts could offer at least the tiniest bit of insight. You youngsters; no respect for the Church and the traditions of this land... *shakes head*

[Garin]

I'm afraid that I, Garin, have not been as participatory in our village affairs in the manner that I ussually like to be.

I was about to second Nilp's early call to silence the silents for once and all, because this Is my usual initial suggestion in these god-forsaken villages. File it in the 'better than nothing but pretty close to it" category.
Now I can understand how events can turn against you and force an abbreviated absence. However, I think our village should address those that are repeatedly quiet/unuseful.

I've just starting reading the last several posts, and will try to add something else soon.

Oh and I forgot the theatrics...

Abercrombie and Shelob are both dead?
WHHHHYYYYYYY??? NOOOOOO!!!! What diety would allow this to happen? They shall be avenged.

As for those villagers trying to fill their purses on the villages' misfortune... I offer the village free bread. We can't get the lupines on empty stomachs. It is a dark rye that was Shelob's favorite. Help yourself.

She was the only one who bought it anyway.

edit: Grammar
edit: Glirdan was the one that suggested the lynch o' the silents. Sorry, I was in a hurry.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Some thoughts of a few villagers:

- Gil received a vote from Glirdan who suggested getting rid of those who don't post much because one of the three wolves is usually a quiet one (this theory may not apply in this village because I think everybody's quite talkative). Well, as it happens, Gil finds now Glirdan wolvish (or was it innocent/ cobblerish?), pulls his usual "I'm stupid, ignore me" act and votes for Glirdan.

There's nothing unexpected in Gil's behaviour and Glirdan's vote for him seems a bit unfair as Gil hadn't even said a word when this vote was cast. However, I think Glirdan just has some traumas of quieter villagers that cannot be healed and I don't think his vote itself looks very wolvish.

- I just noticed that I accidentally left Formendacil out of the summary, but then again, he didn't even say much... I would like to hear more from him as well as from Kath, Celuien and Farael.

- Much of what Lhuna has said is spoken through her role. That doesn't look suspicious to me, but her vote for Glirdan is oddly unreasoned. Was it just because Glirdan suggested killing the silent ones and Lhuna thought that she belonged into that category? However, it is Day One, but I wonder if she really thought that Glirdan was the most likely person to be a wolf at that point. If so, why did she say: "He's most likely innocent, but what can I do?" An excuse for her vote if we should actually lynch Glirdan and then start looking at Lhuna?

- One last thing, it's worrying that I'm getting paranoid already on Day 1, but did someone just say that we want to kill The Rohirrim? *sigh*

I shall go to eat grass with my sheep. I'll be back later.

[Garin]

I failed to mention my distaste for this false seer business. It gives us a quite a dilemna. (Really Garin? Do go on..)

Our best hope is that the village or even the wolves, kill him or her-- thus revealing their identity. Not that I am clamoring for the death of an innocent, the Falsey just seems to benefit the wolves more.
They know who they are and know who is totally off the mark in identifying them.

I'm sure I am repeating what others have said. I admittedly still need to read several posts.

I have no voting strategy and no suspects, as of yet. I will likely vote late.

I won't say much into I can read all of the posts.

Back to baking....

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

We have to remember that Glirdan had to vote early. I must get that in as it looks like I shall also have to vote early.

My guess is that he chose to vote for Gil because Gil is notoriously quiet and hard to decipher anyway. Lhuna voted for Glirdan pretty much on the basis that he was the only one to vote so far. Gil voted for Glirdan pretty much out of spite. It might be a tremendous place for Glirdan to hide (the very first vote) but I am definitely leaning towards Glirdan's innocence; and possibly a bit of foolishness on the part of Lhuna and Gil. Wolvish? I cannot tell.

[Aiwendil]

The Saucepan Man wrote:

I will be keeping an eye on those who seem to be encouraging this talk of Seers. *Glares at littlemanpoet and Aiwendil*

That said, his comments did also prompt all this Seer talk, which I don’t like.

And what harm, I ask thee, has "all this Seer talk" done? It seems to me that it's in the best interest of the village for us to be speak freely regarding strategy. Wolves thrive on secrecy. I trust that the Seers are intelligent enough to decide for themselves how to act, and that they will take advice from fellow villagers only when it seems suitable to them.

Well, enough about that. In general, though, I'm pleased to see that the Day 1 discussion has been largely one concerning strategy rather than a parade of random accusations.

My thoughts turn now toward my vote. In spite of the (I think) fairly productive discussion so far, it's still Day 1 and we have very little to go on. No one so far has struck me as particularly wolvish; in all likelihood (alas!) my vote will fall upon an innocent. But that's no reason to make it random; I shall at the least endeavour to make a (slightly) educated guess.

Of all the villagers, the one that seems to me to have been the most helpful so far is littlemanpoet. I am inclined, for the moment, to think him innocent. If he's a wolf, then he's one most adept at playing the "helpful thinker" role.

Boromir88 and SPM both seem to be helpful as well. At this early stage, I certainly wouldn't go so far as to call either of them "likely innocent". But it seems to me that neither should be lynched on the first Day.

Glirdan worries me slightly. He calls for the lynching of quiet villagers and then votes for Gil-Galad. Now, I can see how an innocent villager could easily do both of those things. But the vote for Gil-Galad seems a very "safe" move for a wolf.

tar-ancalime is another one I have my eye on. Perhaps I'm reading too much into her posts, but it looks to me like she's eager to find excuses to bring suspicion upon people - first with her proposed moratorium on Seer talk (suggesting perhaps that anyone who talks about the Seers is to be suspected) and then with her statement that Spawn's summary "rubs me the wrong way". She has backed off of both of these, declaring that her moratorium was not intended to be a wolf-test and that Spawn's summary is not suspicious. Could be a wolf testing various approaches and backing off when they seem not to be working.

I realize I am grasping at straws here, but that's as it must be. Again, neither Glirdan nor tar strikes me as "likely a wolf". But based on the rather meager evidence we have so far, I am leaning toward voting for one of them .

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Dancing daughter of the big spider

Aiwendil: Says random accusations are useless for innocents, wants to have serious discussion, asks questions about good ways to spot a wolf, how the Gifteds should act and how to vote. Wants to spread votes wider than lmp and thinks approx. 5-6 is a good number. Thinks we don't have to worry about the false Seer so much even though they might cause confusion. Says there's no need to stop talking about the Seers although they should remain hidden. Says the Seer is most useful when they're dead and we can be sure of their identity.

I come back to you at the turn of the tide, bringing news of cyclopentanes and thiotriazoles. According to my instruments..... AIWENDIL IS A WOLF!!!

Let's get this day-one accusation started

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

Now, I know we don't have much to go on as yet. But it seems to me that random accusations and similar nonsense will only help the Wolves. Meseems the sooner we get down to some serious discussion, the better the chances of our village surviving.

(post #7)

At the point this was written, there was nothing to go on with. And random accusations are not as useless as my featured acusee will make you think. If you are lucky, you may get the spotlight on a wolf, who will hopefully then make a mistake a honest villager will pick on later. Discussions can be left for later on the day, when villagers like myself have at least some evidence to go on. Such as the one presented above and the next one coming up

The Questions:
Even though one may think that a wolf will want to take a leading role in the village, so that people follow him (or her) while he carefully chooses plausible innocents to be lynched, it is quite a risky move. Only a bold wolf would do such thing, but how about Aiwendil's move? He is basically letting others take the lead, but at the same time he's putting himself on the 'good' side of the leaders. SpM, Morm or LMP are lilkely the most persuasive characters and Aiwendil seems to be trying to get them to trust him. Smart move, if you fear they may make a good case against you, isn't it?

Following piece of 'evidence'

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

I think people may be worrying a bit too much about the false Seer. True, his/her presence may lead to confusion. Certainly it would be better not to have a false Seer. But bear in mind that a 'dream' from the false Seer is no more likely to be wrong than a random guess by a bewildered villager. As long as we all bear the existence of the false Seer in mind, I think we should get along all right. I certainly don't see any call for a moratorium on talking about the Seer; though I would, again, advise the Seers themselves to stay completely hidden. Note also that, at least in my opinion, the chief value of the Seer is to be gotten after the Seer has died (after a long and fruitful life, I hope) - and when either Seer dies his or her true nature will be revealed to us.

I am not too comfortable with Seer talk in general this early... anything more than passing comments on them makes me cringe... but what really bugs me is what I bolded above. While it is true that we will not know whether the person that says to be the Seer is the true or false seer, it won't take long to realize who the false seer is once he(she) comes forward.

It is an astute and bold move to say that the Seer is useless 'till dead, master Aiwendil. That way, as long as the wolves don't nail the true seer too late, we villagers won't be able to trust whom we believe to be the Seer. And I think Aiwendil is also over-stating the problems the false seer might bring upon us. After all, it might not be long until we lynch someone the false seer has dreamt of and then he(she) will know who he(she) is.

I think you are smart enough to realize that, Aiwendil.... I think you are trying to sow dissent and uncertainty in our ranks.

Let's move on to post #60

And what harm, I ask thee, has "all this Seer talk" done?

Nothing, I think it's helping me to find a wolf

It seems to me that it's in the best interest of the village for us to be speak freely regarding strategy. Wolves thrive on secrecy

Actually, as it has been mentioned before, if we give out our strategy freely, the wolves will know how to avoid suspicion. It's just a matter of 'agreeing' on suspecting a certain kind of behaviour and then avoiding it no matter what!

in all likelihood (alas!) my vote will fall upon an innocent.

I'm never confident on those who try to downplay their votes, but I have done that before, so this is mildly a comment rather than a true piece of evidence. Although in the light of the preceeding points...

Comments on SPM, LMP and Boro
Again, we see Aiwendil trying to be nice to the most vocal ones.

Comments on Tar-ancalime
It's an easy target... If I wasn't so 'convinced' on Aiwendil's guilt, she'd be my prime suspect... but I think Tar-ancalime's mistakes look more like an innocent trying to do too much while Aiwendil's mistakes seem like a wolf trying to hide in plain view.

Again, neither Glirdan nor tar strikes me as "likely a wolf". But based on the rather meager evidence we have so far, I am leaning toward voting for one of them .

Again, trying to downplay his likely vote. While an innocent may say it once, it's now twice in the same post.

To conclude, I think that Aiwendil is being far too safe in his speech. Safe enough that it makes me think he's got something to hide. He's not playing a safe game for a villager because no villager needs to make sure the most vocal one's don't suspect him... an innocent villager knows he's innocent and trusts he will survive long enough to prove so. A guilty wolf needs to make 'friends' quickly, so that he can cast suspicion elswhere without any backlash when it's shown that the lynched person was an innocent (or even worse, a gifted).

For those reasons I say we perform the following reaction

Aiwendil + Gallows =====> Dead wolf

I will come back later with my vote... you can all probably guess who it will most likely go to.

[Farael]

Sorry, I realize you might find my quote of Dancing Spawn a little confusing... I meant to add that it was her comments what got the ball rolling against Aiwendil in my head, but I must have forgotten to write that in. Good job Dancing, but you are not off the hook just yet.

[Anguirel]

I'm strongly tempted to vote for LMP just to give everyone a nice, cosy, everything's falling out just as usual feeling. But I think I will restrain this urge for the time being.

So far-

Glirdan voted Gil

Nilp voted Farael

Lhuna voted Glirdan

Gil revenge-voted Glirdan

and tar-ancalime voted Eomer of the Rohirrim.

This means that I'm inclined to clear tar-ancalime for the moment. I don't agree with her choice, but it looks like a sensible and worthy attempt to stop the village getting bogged down in a Glirdan-Gil feud.

Gil on the other hand committed the cardinal sin of changing a throwaway early vote into a potential bandwagon. However, I'm not going to vote for him either, because it would be conformist and tedious to do so.

The people tempting me at the moment are three old favourites-LMP as mentioned above;

LMP's rival the Saucepan Man. While LMP's assertion that he possesses an unusual malevolent undercurrent seems like so much hot-air, the Viscount Kettle is sounding more reasonable in their confrontation at present and I always like to discomfit reasonable people;

And Boromir88, above all. For all Aiwendil's assertion that he looks like one of the helpful ones, he hasn't really said all that much, except the infamous "Seems to be business as usual" post. A lot of noose-babble too, well shown up by dancing spawn. Yes, I think Boromir88 is my likely target, unless the need of the moment changes.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, the time approaches for me to vote, as I cannot be sure that I will be back later. But first …

I don’t particularly like Gil-Galad’s reaction vote for Glirdan, but it does seem fairly standard behaviour for him. I am wary of suspecting the quiet and/or confusing villagers when that is there usual pattern of behaviour, but that of course does not clear him either. I would like to hear more from him, but I’m not confident that we will.

Originally Posted by tar-ancalime

Something about dancing spawn's post really rubs me the wrong way. It's so long, so intricate, and so devoid of any new information. Being as it's the first day and all, and as my vote is going to have to come in the next few hours, unless I see anything that compels me to place my vote elsewhere I'm likely to go with the dancing spider.

Originally Posted by tar-ancalime

Mostly random, Eomer, but I have to say: if you're innocent I'm glad to have you on my team, but if you're not I want you out of here before you even get started.

This seems mighty strange to me. As far as I can see, nothing occurred between these two comments to “compel” tar to place her vote elsewhere. While I disagreed with her analysis of dancing spawn’s summary, I can see no particular reason to vote for Eomer either. And I am entirely unconvinced of the merits of voting for someone that you accept will be a valuable ally if innocent on the off chance that they may not. That would apply to most here.

Originally Posted by Anguirel

I would like to point out that I myself don't see much sign of malign intent in Celuien's so-called "diverted accusation" to tar-ancalime and I.

Well, it is Day 1, so we don’t have a whole lot to go on. I regard it a suspicious, but I would prefer to hear more from her before drawing any stronger conclusion than that.

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

... there's something about SPM that just seems a little off (this game). I can't really explain it, but will be reviewing his posts much more carefully. Things sound and look the same on the surface, but there's an undercurrent that I can't quite put my finger on, and it makes me wonder if he's furry. I'll be watching. Carefully.

Well, well, what a surprise. Lmp and The Saucepan Man suspect each other. Of course, it is rather difficult for me to comment on my seeming “a little off” to you.

[Garin]

I am quite displeased that I will not have time to examine every post to the extent I would like to and my vote will not be as informed as I desire. Tomorrow is another day.

Anguirel said: Yes, I think Boromir88 is my likely target, unless the need of the moment changes.

I guess i didn't appreciate Boro's early statement about approving the village's vote for the wolf. Probably, just playing in character. But it also sounds like a wolf's dream job.

This is all I can manage today.

Probably will only have time for a quick vote.

Good luck, all.

[Celuien]

Okay then, I'm back. Looks like there's been a lot going on since I took a nap and went to work this morning...

First, I'm not inclined to vote for Glirdy. Under most circumstances, I would find his early vote for Gil alarming, but then I checked the village bulletin board and saw his notice of time constraints. So I don't find that nearly enough to go on and would rather give him the benefit of the doubt for now.

For that matter, I'm not really finding much to go on, though, like SpM, I find tar-ancalime's shift from suspicion of spawn to a vote for Eomer odd. Must watch carefully.

As for my 'diversion,' Ang's right. Just occupational banter to open a conversation. Shine the lights on my lily pad as you see fit. I enjoy attention.

More later. I have to read the thread some more.

[Aiwendil]

Farael: What can I say? Except - sorry, wrong. In some cases, I think you are simply reading too much into my words. In others, you seem to have misunderstood me. For instance, you say:

And I think Aiwendil is also over-stating the problems the false seer might bring upon us.

But what I had in fact said was:

I think people may be worrying a bit too much about the false Seer

If that's "over-stating the problems", I'll eat my hat (once it's been properly seasoned, of course).

Also, I did not claim "that the Seer is useless 'till dead". I said that it seems to me that the Seer's greatest value is after he/she has been revealed (usually by death).

Anguirel wrote:

And Boromir88, above all. For all Aiwendil's assertion that he looks like one of the helpful ones, he hasn't really said all that much, except the infamous "Seems to be business as usual" post.

You make a good point. Looking back, I see that Boromir88 has appeared helpful while saying very little. It seems to me that this is just what a wolf would most like to do. However, I still don't see any particular reason to suspect Boromir at this point.

My vote will probably go to Tar-ancalime, for reasons stated earlier (and not to Glirdan because it seems better for the votes to be spread out). But I am not pressed for time and I will consider things again before making that final.

[Formendacil]

My apologies to all for my lack of participation thus far... coming down sick at work does very little for the brain- or for playing this game in general.

That said, I've always found posting on Day 1 to be a general waste of time for me. As noted elsewhere, I try to guess Werewolves by who seems to be playing wrong. With Day 1 being a journey through the absurd and with the game not having gone on long enough to detect any oddities in playing style, it seems pointless for me to post, since I have nothing to say.

Furthermore, the old police adage about "Anything you say can and will be used against you" comes to mind. If one has nothing to say, then posting randomly so as not to appear suspicious is pointless, since people will find your posting just as suspicious as your not-posting.

[The Saucepan Man]

And now I must vote.

For reasons that I have stated earlier, my main suspects at this point in time are elempi, Celuin and Lhunadarwen. I am also concerned about tar-ancalime’s flip-flop vote. However, she was talking sense before that so I am prepared, for now, to regard it as an attempt to break up the “Glirdan-Gil” feud, as Anguirel puts it.

I will content myself with keeping an eye on lmp for the time being. I find him suspicious but, if innocent, he will undoubtedly be of great benefit to the village. And a vote for him from me now seems a bit peevish, if you get my meaning.

Since I said that I would prefer to hear further from Celuin before acting on my suspicions arising from her reaction to morm’s random accusation, I will hold to that. There is simply not enough to go on with her at this stage.

Which leaves me with Lhunardawen. Her vote for Glirdan seemed to be picking on too easy a target for my liking, given his very early vote for Gil-Galad. And despite trying to label herself as one of the quiet ones, she seems to have been rather eager to make her presence felt while she was here. It’s not a lot to go on, but that’s pretty standard for Day 1. And it’s just about the most that I have to go on at the moment.

++LHUNARDAWEN

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Garin

Our best hope is that the village or even the wolves, kill him or her-- thus revealing their identity. Not that I am clamoring for the death of an innocent, the Falsey just seems to benefit the wolves more.
They know who they are and know who is totally off the mark in identifying them.
.

True, but worst case scenario is that False Seer identifies an innocent as a wolf and the village acts on the false information. So where does that take us?

1) We've attacked an innocent and reduced our population by one, something we're sadly likely to do anyway over the next few days. Then we the information given was incorrect and also know who the False Seer is. So...
2) We've identified one known innocent for the next day. One less person for the suspect list in the next day's discussions. Unless the wolves decide to eat him/her overnight. Then we're back where we started.

Altogether, I don't think the False Seer hurts the village that much, since we're not likely to be following directions for long if incorrect.

The only caveat would be a wolf impersonating a False Seer. But that's an event that would bring one or both Seers out fairly quickly and reveal a wolf in the third candidate. That's not something I'm particularly expecting to see.

And that, my friends, will be the last Seer related commentary I make toDAY.

*continues reviewing the discussion archives*

[Anguirel]

Well, I believe I now have the confidence to vote thus:

++BOROMIR88

I have often suffered through refraining to vote for Boromir...but never through voting for him! Let's see if this fits the pattern.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

The Mormegil's post #29 is a bit weird. Remember he had previously accused tar-ancalime, Celuien, Gil and Holbytlass (seemingly randomly). In #29 he says that they had all responded in the way he had expected them to (apart from Gil). What happened was this: Holby and Celuien laughed it off; tar-ancalime didn't even mention it; and Gil defended himself against Glirdan's vote, not mentioning Mormegil either. Mormegil then says he will continue to hold them (whoever 'they' are) in high suspicion.

I'm not accusing you Morm; I just find the post to be rather strange and would appreciate an explanation.

I'll have to vote very soon. While tar's vote for me does seem slightly odd, I'm hesitating to vote for her because it will look like it's done out of spite. Saucepan Man, you have also commented on tar's vote. Do you think there could possibly be unity between tar and dancing spawn, and that they tried to insert a little bit of early animosity between them? Dancing spawn did say something like she couldn't believe that someone wanted to kill 'the rohirrim' or something I couldn't quite understand, and inserted a Sarcastic Smilie. Maybe she just loves me. Or maybe those two lassies might be worth keeping an eye on.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

If that's "over-stating the problems", I'll eat my hat (once it's been properly seasoned, of course).

Also, I did not claim "that the Seer is useless 'till dead". I said that it seems to me that the Seer's greatest value is after he/she has been revealed (usually by death).

Garlic or salt?
In the same sentence you say

But bear in mind that a 'dream' from the false Seer is no more likely to be wrong than a random guess by a bewildered villager

Which is far too 'dramatic' given that, for example, should the False Seer 'discover' a gifted or a wolf, we can be comfident that that person will NOT be a gifted or a wolf(probability of the random draw being a gifted/wolf is 3/19 and the probability of that person being actually a gifted or a wolf is also 3/19... therefore the probability of the person that the False Seer dreamt a gifted/wolf being actually a gifted/wolf is 3/19 X 3/19 =0.025 or 2.5%). While it's not nearly as certain as what the True Seer will say, it's still something to go with, specially this early in the game.

And while, true, I maybe expressed myself wrong.... you say "people are worrying too much, the false seer is completely useless." yet I just showed you he's not totally useless. Worst case scenario, another known innocent. And then you say "the true seer is most useful when dead" so my point that you are trying to move us away from looking for hints of Seer'ism 'till the Seer is dead (when it might be too late to do anything about it, as guessing at subtle 'hints' is by no means a science.) still holds. Or I think it does.

If you really want to adress my suspcions, do explain why you try to befriend all the loud ones?

Until you do, and given that I must go now (quite ironically, to a Chem Lab in RL)

I shall vote

++Aiwendil

[Formendacil]

Being sick, being clueless, and being intent on keeping the pool of candidates wide open for lynching, I shall join forces with my "Twin" and vote:

++ Boromir88

[Celuien]

Of Aiwendil and Farael:

I have to disagree with Farael's analysis of our local cook. Aiwendil merely looks to have been discussing strategy and feeling the same day 1 uncertainty with regard to his vote that should pretty much be expected given that there's no real evidence at this point. And honestly, I don't see anything in Aiwendil's commentary that jumps out as deceptive or distracting. While Farael is concerned over the 'safety' of his posts, it doesn't really seem like the same type of 'safe' post I'd expect from the lupine. It's only safe in that what he said seemed rational and non-controversial. But what he said was helpful, not an empty. And while I know there's been some upset over discussing gifteds early, it's a reasonable enough to address concerns over the un-gifted member of our Seer pair (there, I went and said that word again ). Could Aiwendil be a wolf? Yes. Any of us could be. But I don't find it particularly likely right now. And so I'll dismiss him from my ballot toDAY.

And as for Farael, the boldness of his accusations clears him from toDAY's suspect list as far as I'm concerned. It would be a brazen wolf who would come out that noisily against a villager today when it would be so much easier to join the general confusion and bandwagon or to make a random selection that leaves no evidence for future discussion.

[Anguirel]

We now have seven candidates on offer:

Gil
Farael
Glirdan
Eomer
Lhuna
Boromir

and

Aiwendil.

Methinks the vote is perhaps spread enough...

EDIT: Cross-posted with Formendacil's vote, an interesting development, and Celuien's post

[mormegil]

I've been out busy with the soldier business and it's taken more time than I would like it to. However let me weigh in on some things and put forward my suspicions.

Tar, I do suspect but for reasons that have been stated. I would like to vote for her but I think I will hold my hand for the time being and not spread out votes further.

Celuien I do find her moderately suspicious. The way she responded was odd and her behavior since has been a bit on the defensive. I don't think I will vote for her but I will watch.

Farael I think his post about Aiwendil was helpful, though I don't entirely agree with him I think he is on the right track.

Anguirel I don't understand half of what he says, I guess I'm a simple man of war and not a banker that speaks to naught but coins all day. Anyway, his sudden onset of suspicion towards Boromir is odd. While I can see some of his point I would find this behavior a bit more suspicious on day 2 or 3. On day 1 there really isn't a lot to go on. However what really is nagging me about Ang is how he outlined his suspcions and then almost as an afterthought included Boromir in it and then went fully after him.

Gil-Galad. I may actually vote for him because of his behavior and if not now when? He'll be the constant enigma and everyday we will be wondering.

So

++Gil-Galad

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Formendacil's vote for Boromir88—he attempts to pass the blame to Anguirel should it prove nasty for the village. Could be nothing; but isn't Formendacil usually more vocal? Not at all convinced by the whole 'Day One is too hard to judge yet anyway' argument.

Sorry Lhuna but royalty or non-royalty, promise to defend you or no promise, little sister or not ( ), your vote strikes me as wolvish. The whole 'Oh, I'm sorry Glirdan, you're probably innocent but what can I do?' seems a bit too friendly and wanting-to-be-loved. Not so much the way you voted but how you voted.

++LHUNARDAWEN

Others I'm most suspicious of: Spawn, Tar, Mormegil, Formendacil. A lot of villagers are looking innocent to me but we all know how quickly things change.

[Aiwendil]

Farael wrote:

should the False Seer 'discover' a gifted or a wolf, we can be comfident that that person will NOT be a gifted or a wolf

Sorry, but this is wrong. The False Seer's dreams are random - so the False Seer's dream is no more nor less reliable than a random guess. You seem to be continuing to misconstrue and complicate the few points I made about the False Seer. Normally, I'd say you're behaving very Cobblerish, but apparently we've no Cobbler! So I tend to think you are simply a mistaken villager. I agree with Celuin that your accusation is unlikely for a wolf - though I suppose it might be a very bold move.

Anguirel wrote:

Methinks the vote is perhaps spread enough...

This makes me wonder whether I should follow through on my earlier analysis and vote for Tar-ancalime. Seven candidates is a lot already. Must think on it.

[Aiwendil]

Okay, on second thought, as I don't particularly suspect anyone on the list, and since the more I think about it, the more wolvish Tar-Ancalime looks to me, I will vote:

++Tar-ancalime