Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Loslote]

Another list

Feeling good about:
Legate - He started and continuously encouraged the Huin bandwagon. I highly doubt a wolf would have been that vocal in support of lynching a packmate who, until Legate started the push, really wasn't in trouble.
Shasta - I still really like his reaction to the Kit thing. I don't think his vote yesterDay says much of anything, but I've liked what I've seen from him.

Feeling okay about:
Pitch - He voted very early in the Huin bandwagon, and at a time when his vote really swung the momentum. I don't think he would have done that if he was a wolf. Also, Greenie mentioned that Huin kept pushing attention onto the GLP, and that that probably means none of the GLP were wolves, which I think is a good point.
Eonwe - He cast the deciding vote yesterDay, and I think if he'd voted for Mac instead, no one would have been too suspicious, so I read that as fairly innocent.
Lalaith - She voted for Huin when the votes were extremely close, and she could've easily justified voting for Mac instead.
Brinn - Ditto Lalaith - she could have easily swung the vote in Mac's direction.
Mac - I don't think the wolves would have been okay with the only two bandwagons being for two wolves, so I'm thinking that Mac must have been innocent, or we would have seen a lot more pressure coming Zil's and my direction.
Greenie - Her vote was too early and didn't really give us much information, but I've liked her reasonableness and helpfulness.

Feeling nothing about:
Lhuna - Wasn't around when the Huinwagon got started, and I don't have enough to go on to have a strong feeling.
Kath - Ditto Lhuna, she wasn't there fore the Huin wagon and I don't have a strong feeling one way or the other.

Feeling dubious about:
Lommy - I wouldn't be at all shocked if Lommy turned out to be a wolf, but I wouldn't say she's my top suspect. She sort of soft supported the Huin wagon initially, then backed off when it actually took off, which could go either way.
Rune - I get a bad feeling from him, but that could be in part because he suspects me. I don't like that he essentially tried to start up a new bandwagon in the middle of the Huinwagon taking off, but that could again be an innocent who just didn't really suspect either candidate. Definitely keeping my eye on him.
THE Ka - Really didn't like her vote yesterDay, but again, I am definitely biased there. I also don't share the way she approaches suspicion and analyzing the game, which means I find her reasoning to be suspicious pretty much every time. Like Rune, I'm keeping an eye out, but she isn't on the top of my list.

Feeling bad about:
Sally - I haven't seen enough of her to get a good read, but the timing of her vote was pretty bad. I don't think that all three of Boro, Sally, and Zil are wolves, though, and I think Sally is the least suspicious of the three - but if Boro and/or Zil turn out to be innocent, Sally's going to jump way up my suspicion list.
Boro - It would have been bold to try to save Huin so late in the bandwagon, but if it had worked, wouldn't it have been worth it? The votes were very, very close. Legate also noticed that Boro soft suspected Huin earlier that Day, but didn't end up voting him, which I also find suspicious. I've found Boro to be suspicious for a while now, and I definitely consider him to be one of my top suspects.
Inzil - Between his vote placement and the Kit thing yesterDay, I really, really think Zil is likely to be a wolf. Huin suspected him a little, and tied him to me, which makes sense in terms of wolf-on-wolf plus implicating someone else. I also got a bad sense from his first post toDay - why bring up that there might have been a wolf in the Huin voters but not even mention that there almost definitely is one in the Mac voters? Easily my top suspect.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

It could have been left alone, but I still say it needed to be addressed. In my mind there was no possibility five wolves had all failed to notice it. I was playing with the idea that it had been done by a very bold Kitwolf, just to confuse. Highly unlikely, but not impossible. I was amazed that she was still with us the next Day.
The only thing I can figure is that they were thinking we might be so confused by Kit we might, for lack of a better option, lynch her to be on the safe side. If so, that's pretty brazen.

That's what I thought might have been the thing. (Or some other unlikely thing, such as the WWs not realising she can't self-protect or whatever.)

But most of all. Since you brought it up again, I can't but reiterate that this is behaviour I absolutely can't understand from you. Ok, let's say I wake up on Day 2 and find a Ranger alive when I thought they should have been killed. What do I do? I keep it to myself!!! Why should I even open my mouth about it, unless I am a Wolf or a Cobbler? If I mention it, I'm only adding fuel to the fire of the Wolves, who may exactly have orchestrated this to have her lynched, or may accidentally draw out the real Ranger (if this was a mistake and the person isn't a Ranger after all), etc.

Summa summarum: I can't see a single benefit of bringing it up, and I can see a lot of ways that it can harm someone.

EDIT: x-ed with Lottie. But now I'm really going to sleep.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

What can we tell by the wolf-pack's kills so far? As Rune commented after Rikae's death it looks like an unadventurous/boring pack. After Kit being killed, I'm agreeing with that assessment. A bolder and risk-taking pack may have let Kit live, risked having her stop their kill, but have the village wondering how the heck is the "revealed" Ranger still alive? There's still a lot of people here, and Ranger could not self-protect so a bolder pack might have tried to get us to lynch our ranger by keeping her alive.

That's not what we have though. I can imagine a bold pack with Mac going paranoid and his mates busing him. But can I see that ploy between Mac and Huey, no doesn't feel like that. We have a wolf pack that made 2 safe kills, which suggests they're trying to play it safe in the day and not do a bunch of crazy wolf-on-wolf.

I suppose now that I said this we're going to get wolves busing each other.

Wishful thinking, my prince.

Okay, but seriously, in a village this big with that many wolves, there could still be a Mac and Huey pack without significant wolf-on-wolf voting. At a certain point in a bandwagon, it behooves one to vote for your packmate more than not, so when both of them happened to come up at lynch candidates yesterDay, their pack would have had to vote for one of them in order not to look like they were trying to pull votes away. Likewise, a wolf could early vote a packmate as a throw away and not expect anything to come of it, and then that person is lynched that Day after a swing in suspicion.

In short, you can have wolf-on-wolf voting without the pack intentionally turning on each other.

~

And another thing! Why would the pack leave Kitanna alive at that point? If she's the ranger, free dead ranger. If she's not, she's still a good pick because people might assume she's the ranger and she would be less likely to get lynched.

Boring? Maybe. Effective? Definitely.


x'd since the post I quoted

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

But most of all. Since you brought it up again, I can't but reiterate that this is behaviour I absolutely can't understand from you. Ok, let's say I wake up on Day 2 and find a Ranger alive when I thought they should have been killed. What do I do? I keep it to myself!!! Why should I even open my mouth about it, unless I am a Wolf or a Cobbler? If I mention it, I'm only adding fuel to the fire of the Wolves, who may exactly have orchestrated this to have her lynched, or may accidentally draw out the real Ranger (if this was a mistake and the person isn't a Ranger after all), etc.

Summa summarum: I can't see a single benefit of bringing it up, and I can see a lot of ways that it can harm someone.

I honestly didn't see the harm. If Kit hadn't been the real Ranger, the bona fide would have known better than to counter-reveal. I just could not fathom it had been done innocently. That's all.

x/d with Sally

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Inzil - Between his vote placement and the Kit thing yesterDay, I really, really think Zil is likely to be a wolf. Huin suspected him a little, and tied him to me, which makes sense in terms of wolf-on-wolf plus implicating someone else. I also got a bad sense from his first post toDay - why bring up that there might have been a wolf in the Huin voters but not even mention that there almost definitely is one in the Mac voters? Easily my top suspect.

How shocking.

[Inziladun]

So who are the remaining Wolves?

Lottie? Very opportunistic, and the Huey vote is not a free pass. Like I said, with five of them, the Wolves could afford to be open to the idea of a pack sacrifice.

Mac? Rikae's "suspect".

Same for Pitch, who I also felt was rather opportunistic yesterDay in suspecting me, especially when Lottie jumped in. Strangely, I haven't yet got that vibe from him toDay.

Someone I haven't paid much attention to, like Ka or Lommy?

Seriously, folks. I know I'm a main topic of conversation, but don't get tunnel-vision.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Sally

But to briefly address the idea that I might have voted Mac to save a wolf Hui, I actually have a rather cutthroat track record as a wolf, so if you don't believe I would happily sacrifice one of my own to win the game, please ask anyone who's been in a pack with me.

You know, I thought about that - how Sallywolf wouldn't mind throwing a packmate under the bus - but now that you've brought it up, I'm wondering if maybe you are a wolf who panicked in the heat of the moment and toDay are hiding under the excuse that it's not your typical gameplay style.

I really don't like that Sally keeps bringing up the idea that both Mac and Hui are wolves. Sure, it's always possible, but I find it less likely. It feels like she is trying to use this as a distraction from the Mac voters, herself included.

Originally Posted by Sally

And another thing! Why would the pack leave Kitanna alive at that point? If she's the ranger, free dead ranger. If she's not, she's still a good pick because people might assume she's the ranger and she would be less likely to get lynched.

Boring? Maybe. Effective? Definitely.

What, are you feeling miffed that people are calling your kills boring and safe?

[satansaloser2005]

I've missed you too, Brinn.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

So who are the remaining Wolves?

Lottie? Very opportunistic, and the Huey vote is not a free pass. Like I said, with five of them, the Wolves could afford to be open to the idea of a pack sacrifice.

Mac? Rikae's "suspect".

Same for Pitch, who I also felt was rather opportunistic yesterDay in suspecting me, especially when Lottie jumped in. Strangely, I haven't yet got that vibe from him toDay.

Someone I haven't paid much attention to, like Ka or Lommy?

Seriously, folks. I know I'm a main topic of conversation, but don't get tunnel-vision.

Okay, so the one thing I'm picking up from this post: Zil is not expanding his suspect list based on yesterDay's votes. He's not taking anyone off his list - understandable - and he hasn't added anyone to his list - absolutely wild, considering how much information we got yesterDay. To me, this screams "wolf that knows his time is limited and doesn't want to give the village a single piece of information to link him to his packmates".

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Wolf-on-wolf is certainly not out of the question. In fact, it's likely. With five of them, they could afford to sacrifice one if it made another one or two look rosier, especially since Urwen's departure gave them what amounts to a free kill.

I definitely think that wolf-on-wolf is a possibility, but this a first comment on the issue toDay seems suspicious to me. If Mac is innocent, then surely the majority of wolves are likely to be Mac voters. Of course, if Mac is also a wolf (which is very possible and something we shouldn't discount), this is more complicated, but only the wolves know whether he is.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Right. And may I say that Eönwë voting Hui because 'with the vote count as it is it's going to have to be this way', after he'd earlier listed Hui as 'fine for now', is as good a candidate for this as any.

Of course, this being focused on me may be part of why this rubs me the wrong way, but again, it does seem weird to focus on my vote (the one that actually got Hui quarantined) over all the others as your first post toDay.

Also, unless Mac is also a wolf, it doesn't really follow - I'd already mentioned my suspicion of Mac earlier that Day (though I did later say I was feeling
a bit better about him later), so I if I'd wanted a manufactured reason to go after him, there was already precedent.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I don't really see basically any reason for a wolf to vote Huin (except possibly something like the second vote if it looked like it wouldn't gain momentum? I need to have a better look how did it actually go) - I mean it would have been an absolutely unnecessary sacrifice from their pov. Even if Mac is a wolf too, he was surely the more expendable one out of the two with the amount of suspicion he'd garnered, while Huin had largely slipped unnoticed until the last minute bandwagon.

I actually think it's pretty likely that there is a wolf in the early Hui bandwaggon, but it gets decreasingly likely with each vote, especially once it was clear it was Hui vs. Mac (again, unless Mac is a wolf - I could see them being more likely to spread out their votes in that case).

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Therefore I would look toDay very hard at everyone who voted Mac after Huin got the first vote. Those were the people who protected Huin and there's almost certain to be AT LEAST one wolf in there, possibly more.

Agreed. Especially those who voted Hui after Lottie's vote caught them up to Mac's.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

However, I'm going to put this disclaimer now and say I will not be considering the possibility of wolf-on-wolf votes yesterday. I just think there's more suspicious votes to be focusing on that has wolves, than the votes of those who lynched a wolf.

This would be a good way of shielding packmates from scrutiny if Boro is a wolf, but I am sympathetic to his earlier comments about not being able to cover all ground/being stretched thin by the overwhelming number of people. On the other hand, both times it seems to cover the less-obvious wolves, which I do think is a little suspect.

I mostly agree with Lottie's post #598 (not quoted here because it's so long), except that I disagree that early Hui voters should be off the hook.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Then all of a sudden, in #552, he's 'open to a Huey vote', with no explanation. So, what has changed?

As I mentioned, I started to feel better about Mac, and as I'd previously not felt much about Hui, I went with my gut instinct.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Seriously? Logically, the only thing she could have been, other than the ranger, was the seer. Yesterday, I repeatedly asked people who doubted her innocence for justification and got none.

I don't think it was a 100% obvious thing, and I'm a little suspicious of those who act like it was - it's a lot easier to believe someone's slip when you know no-one is trying to lie to you. I know part of my reason for putting her in the maybe suspicious category was to not make it such a big thing like you and Zil did. The more attention that got drawn to it, the more obvious it seemed.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I did wonder about this yesterDay, and when that vote she led against Huey turned out so effective I really did think she really was the Seer.

This is a good point that I hadn't thought about. However, this is also pretty wolfy logic. I hadn't really gotten a good read on her yet, but this post is making me suspicious of Lalaith.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Eönwë -> Huinesoron 7

This one sealed the deal. As far as I understand, he was up to date and aware that he was condemning Huine. Pretty bold, when he could have as well sat back and seen what Shasta would do. Or voted Mac to save Huine. Generally a very innocent-seeming vote, but I'd like him to elaborate what he meant by the "it's going to have to be" here: "Ok, with the vote count looking as it is, it looks like it's going to have to be: ++Huinesoron"

Mostly just that since I'd just mentioned that I didn't really want to vote for Mac (because he was starting to seem more innocent), and previously I was open to Brinn or Hui, I was going to go with the latter.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Wishful thinking, my prince.

Okay, but seriously, in a village this big with that many wolves, there could still be a Mac and Huey pack without significant wolf-on-wolf voting. At a certain point in a bandwagon, it behooves one to vote for your packmate more than not, so when both of them happened to come up at lynch candidates yesterDay, their pack would have had to vote for one of them in order not to look like they were trying to pull votes away. Likewise, a wolf could early vote a packmate as a throw away and not expect anything to come of it, and then that person is lynched that Day after a swing in suspicion.

In short, you can have wolf-on-wolf voting without the pack intentionally turning on each other.
[/QUOTE]

All good points. I'll repeat my disclaimer that I'm not saying we must ignore the Huey voters yesterday, because there can't be wolf-on-wolf.

I feel my judgment has been kind of off so far and trying to be more pragmatic/methodical.

What do I know currently from the night kills and the lynches? The night kills have been safe. Effective? Yes. But no risks taken. The lynches for all their chaos have gone extremely favorably.

So what's more suspicious looking? The votes of people who lynched a now known wolf? The votes of people who voted for and unknown Mac and not HueyWolf? The votes of people who didn't vote for either?

Today, I'm not interested in trying to consider wolf-on-wolf strategy. There's still a ton of people, which means the Mac-votes and the "didn't vote for either" votes, are the more suspicious voters.

And another thing! Why would the pack leave Kitanna alive at that point? If she's the ranger, free dead ranger. If she's not, she's still a good pick because people might assume she's the ranger and she would be less likely to get lynched.

I saw a few people, I recall Steve, suspected her and brought up the possibility that Kit could have been acting as a bold-wolf. It would have been riskiest of risks, for the reasons you mentioned, but not killing her last night would start making us paranoid that she was a wolf, because why else would she be kept alive? Anyway, it's all moot now.

Kit. Ranger. Quarantined. Safe? Yes. Effective? Yes.

Edit: crossed with Steve.

[satansaloser2005]

I'm just saying, Boro my love, that discounting wolf-on-wolf tactics opens you up to missing a lot of possibilities.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

This would be a good way of shielding packmates from scrutiny if Boro is a wolf, but I am sympathetic to his earlier comments about not being able to cover all ground/being stretched thin by the overwhelming number of people. On the other hand, both times it seems to cover the less-obvious wolves, which I do think is a little suspect.

Appreciate it. So far I've had this feeling that I'm on the most direct trajectory that leads to wolves, but my aim is slightly off-center. Like I'm hitting the target, but I'm not going to win any marksmanship competition.

[Macalaure]

Huinalysis
Mostly quoteless, for readability.

Day1, he's mostly out against Pitch and Lommy. He talks about a number of other people over the course of his posts, but it's all too lukewarm to draw conclusions from, I feel. He tries to dissuade people from the Brinn-wagon, votes Gala. He suspects there's a wolf among the Brinn suspecters.

He "defends" me in #93, #105, and #115, and he doesn't do anything like that with anybody else. But then in #115 and #154 he encourages others to make points against me, the sneak. It still feels like he's, all defense be damned, just waiting for someone to give him a reason to turn on me. I called him out on that and it was Greenie who came to his defense.

Originally Posted by Huin

(Work update: this is my fourth post, but I've already caught myself checking incoming work emails to see if they might come from wolves. This game gets in your head...)

As far as I can see, and I might be wrong, only Lhuna commented on this one. Interestingly, she doesn't really follow up on it. If you're a wolf and you see a fellow wolf slipping, you either ignore it and hope nobody else notices, or you throw them under the bus.

Starts Day2 with a bunch of analysis, but his main suspect remains Pitch, with Lommy second. Inzil and Loslote are mentioned as suspicious. Boro takes up some prominence in his posts. Greenie, Brinn, and Legate seem innocent to him. There's a mild sneaky defense of Eonwe in #366, but he backs off after Kitanna explains herself.

In #417 he still has Pitch up in his suspicion together with me. Loslote is dropped, Lommy and Inzil are still suspicious to him, but he's easing it. No mention of Boro anymore. Noteworthily, his suspicion of me includes a defense of Greenie. It's interesting how in #429 Lommy is his third suspect, yet she's apparently neutral to him. His suspicion towards Inzil is fairly half-hearted as well, though he raises it later on.

A lot of his points and suspicions feel like he's throwing things around to see what sticks, and if it doesn't, he just leaves it. Pitch, me, and to a lesser degree Lommy and Inzil are the only ones he's somewhat serious about.

In conclusion:
Fairly sure Pitch is innocent.
I'm tempted to feel better about Lommy and Inzil, but I feel a wolf-on-wolf suspicion is possible there, Lommy more so than Inzil, since he doesn't follow through at all.
Can't make my mind up about his half-hearted suspicion of Boro.
Brinn, Greenie, Eonwe, and Legate are implicated negatively, in certain degrees, in that order.

[Eönwë]

Probably fine

Legate of Amon Lanc - started the Hui-waggon, nothing pinging on my radar.

Loslote - Still seems fine to me.

Pitchwife - Despite his immediate suspicion of me toDay, I'm inclined to believe that he's actually innocent - most of what he says seems logical and to come out of genuine concern for the village being misled/tricked.

Kath - The wolfy vibes I got yesterDay don't seem to have amounted to much.

Lhunardawen - Still seems fine to me.

A Little Green - Still seems fine to me.




Temporarily off the hook (I haven't seen any suspicious behaviour since Day 1)

Brinniel

Macalaure




Concerned about

Shastanis Althreduin - I didn't like how he waited until his vote didn't matter.

THE Ka - Expanded the votes to 3 candidates after one was a wolf - definitely one to look at if Mac does turn out to be a wolf.

Thinlómien - My suspicions of her haven't subsided. Also, in her first post toDay, she completely discounts the idea of wolf-on-wolf.

Lalaith - I didn't like how she brought more attention to the fact that Kit was the Ranger yesterDay (with her presumption that it was obviously true) and her logic toDay seems wolvish (as noted earlier)

Rune Son of Bjarne - Just a feeling at the moment; I need to reread his posts.




Probably evil

Inziladun - His pushing Kit out, late Mac vote, and immediate focus on wolf-on-wolf have just added to me thinking he's suspicious. Plus he's a late Mac voter.

Boromir88 - Two days in a row, he's shaped his discussion in a way I find suspicious. He's also a late Mac voter.

Satansaloser2005 - Ever since she appeared near the end of yesterDay, she's exuded extremely strong evil vibes and I have yet to figure out way. But it should be noted that she's also a late Mac voter.


edit: x-ed since my last post.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Sally

More like I was hoping for the best outcome regardless of the consequences I knew it would have for me. Dun and I are saying the same thing, but I'm being more open about the way it looks. You're being overly paranoid again, big bad Mac.

"Oh, no! That Mac made a point against me. He's so paranoid!"

[Eönwë]

Also, I realise that I suspected Zil based on his first post toDay because he immediately suggested wolf-on-wolf and Lommy on her first post toDay because she immediately focused on the opposite.

But I think immediately focusing on Hui-voters in the first post of the Day when there are definitely guilty Mac-voters seems like misdirection. On the other hand, Lommy saying that it's basically impossible makes me uneasy because it does seem like an option, just not the most obvious one.

edit: x-ed with Mac

[Eönwë]

Anyway, I'll be gone for a while (and it looks like I might need to vote before the QT vote comes through), so:

Keen to vote
Zil
Boro
Sally

Don't need much persuading to vote:
Lommy
Lalaith


Could vote
THE Ka
Rune


Might need some persuading, but could vote in a pinch
Shasta (would like to see him explain himself first)
Mac (We would probably learn a lot, and I'm not sure of his innocence - I just don't suspect him as much as the others on this list)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Had my vote mattered, I do think I probably would have voted for Huin over Mac simply because I preferred the company - I had vastly more reads on the Huin voters, for good and ill, over the Mac voters.

In response to Eonwe - you did basically the same thing, bruh. You and I were the last to vote. In my case, I was watching the votes basically be a perfect tie and thinking "well these reactions are gonna be interesting." I didn't have a good enough read on either Huin or Mac to warrant specifically saving one or the other, and I didn't have an evil-enough read to warrant condemning one or the other, so I was concentrating more on the voters than the votees.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Anyway, I'll be gone for a while (and it looks like I might need to vote before the QT vote comes through), so:

Keen to vote
Zil
Boro
Sally

Don't need much persuading to vote:
Lommy
Lalaith


Could vote
THE Ka
Rune


Might need some persuading, but could vote in a pinch
Shasta (would like to see him explain himself first)
Mac (We would probably learn a lot, and I'm not sure of his innocence - I just don't suspect him as much as the others on this list)

Boro was the one decent good read I had of the Mac voters.

[Lhunardawen]

band·​wag·​on | \ ˈband-ˌwa-gən \

1 : a usually ornate and high wagon for a band of musicians especially in a circus parade
2 : a popular party, faction, or cause that attracts growing support —often used in such phrases as jump on the bandwagon
3 : a current or fashionable trend

Shamelessly copy-pasted from The Merriam Webster dictionary, emphasis mine.

I made that comment after seeing a few posts implying that the first vote starts a bandwagon. Taken in isolation, one vote has no support, let alone a growing support. More often than not, unless they're very flimsily reasoned, we don't analyse first votes as throw-aways or wolf-on-wolf (but then again, why not, but that's an altogether different topic). I've always been of the belief that a bandwagon starts the moment another person jumps on it. We start really analysing votes the moment they start gaining momentum towards a successful lynch.

Brinn, however, made a good point here:

Bandwagons can start when players start discussing suspicion and their intention to vote for someone. A first vote could piggyback on that.

Thank you, I stand corrected.

Does that satisfy you, Lommy?

Originally Posted by Greenie

I read this as completely unrelated to Lommy and found it odd that she jumped on it.

That was exactly my intent; they were two unrelated lines of thought. I probably should have added a couple extra spaces in between.

(On a random note, why do we abbreviate Lommy and Greenie? Why not Lommie and Greeny or any other permutations thereof? )

Originally Posted by Mac

As far as I can see, and I might be wrong, only Lhuna commented on this one. Interestingly, she doesn't really follow up on it. If you're a wolf and you see a fellow wolf slipping, you either ignore it and hope nobody else notices, or you throw them under the bus.

I meant it as banter, but imagine my surprise when he did turn out to be a wolf! Wow what a carelessly dropped statement that was.


With 5 wolves I'm not discounting a wolf on wolf even after the Huitrain started to gain serious steam (that did seem to come off left field didn't it?). But based on the voting alone I'm inclined to think Leggie innocent, it doesn't seem reasonable for a wolf to offer his packmate up to be sacrificed when he wasn't in real danger of getting lynched, or to try to convince others to vote for him.

Also, I'm not sure why Shasta appears innocent for holding his vote. It looked incredibly fishy to me, but I probably need a deeper reading for context.

I'll do more in-depth analyses once I'm done with work.

[THE Ka]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Now bring on the accusations, because they might be fair. Wrong, but fair.

Originally Posted by Zil

Seriously, folks. I know I'm a main topic of conversation, but don't get tunnel-vision.

Pushing yourself forward as a reminder smells awfully similar to what happened with Mac yesterDay. Are we going to see a rehashed plot toDay?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

band·​wag·​on | \ ˈband-ˌwa-gən \

1 : a usually ornate and high wagon for a band of musicians especially in a circus parade
2 : a popular party, faction, or cause that attracts growing support —often used in such phrases as jump on the bandwagon
3 : a current or fashionable trend

Shamelessly copy-pasted from The Merriam Webster dictionary, emphasis mine.

I made that comment after seeing a few posts implying that the first vote starts a bandwagon. Taken in isolation, one vote has no support, let alone a growing support. More often than not, unless they're very flimsily reasoned, we don't analyse first votes as throw-aways or wolf-on-wolf (but then again, why not, but that's an altogether different topic). I've always been of the belief that a bandwagon starts the moment another person jumps on it. We start really analysing votes the moment they start gaining momentum towards a successful lynch.

Brinn, however, made a good point here:

Thank you, I stand corrected.

Does that satisfy you, Lommy?


That was exactly my intent; they were two unrelated lines of thought. I probably should have added a couple extra spaces in between.

(On a random note, why do we abbreviate Lommy and Greenie? Why not Lommie and Greeny or any other permutations thereof? )


I meant it as banter, but imagine my surprise when he did turn out to be a wolf! Wow what a carelessly dropped statement that was.


With 5 wolves I'm not discounting a wolf on wolf even after the Huitrain started to gain serious steam (that did seem to come off left field didn't it?). But based on the voting alone I'm inclined to think Leggie innocent, it doesn't seem reasonable for a wolf to offer his packmate up to be sacrificed when he wasn't in real danger of getting lynched, or to try to convince others to vote for him.

Also, I'm not sure why Shasta appears innocent for holding his vote. It looked incredibly fishy to me, but I probably need a deeper reading for context.

I'll do more in-depth analyses once I'm done with work.

Shrug. I'm the only person I know I'm innocent. If it looks like I'm being offered the hammer, I'm gonna take the hammer.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Sally

I've missed you too, Brinn.

I'm going to take a look at those falling under my radar. It's already late, so I don't know if I'll get to everyone tonight, or heck even toDay...it's hard to keep up with all the posts. I took a look at the last couple games I played and we ended on Day 6-7 at around 20 pages. It's only Day 3 and we're already at page 17! Is this just a really talkative group or pandemic boredom?

Okay, so first..

The Ka from yesterDay:

In post#426, she wonders why Mac wants attention on him and who would benefit.

Later she says...

Originally Posted by Ka

As I said in a previous post, it’s more curious to me why Mac wants to be associated with suspicion, why he keeps repeating his tale to us, etc. The problem I have is trying to figure out who benefits from Mac not only being suspicious, but later possibly being voted toDay into a (and I guess I’ll say it…) Macwagon. Wolves could easily hide in a pushed vote for Mac since he’s becoming a wonderful distraction along with Zil’s continued interest in Kit.
I need to go back for earlier toDay and see who could be nudging him along.

In her next post, she votes Lottie for softly pushing the idea of lynching Mac. So it seems her reasoning is similar to reasons I backed down on my initial suspicions in Day 1 on the LGP front, which doesn't say anything to me either way. But then the last paragraph of her vote post says:

Originally Posted by Ka

I'm not voting for Mac, because it's too obvious and appears as if to me at least, he's being subtly coached to take a fall. If he's a wolf doing it as others have mentioned, then it's because it's likely over a consensus with fellow pack mates and scripted. If he's innocent, then pretty much the same for the wolves as he's a convenient 'suspicion' from Rikae the previous Day that they know player's would have itching in the back of their minds. I'm not interested in being corralled into a bandwagon, even by the fairest words.
In short, I'm sticking to my earlier questions on identifying who is pushing for Mac, consistently, subtly at times, and buried here and there. I just don't see a lot of information to be revealed about others from just picking Mac, as he is his most and loudest trumpeter.

The first sentence I find a bit concerning because it seems to imply she thinks him more likely a wolf than not by saying it's too obvious he's being subtly coached to take the fall. But even if he were being coached by packmates, isn't better to lynch someone you think is more likely a wolf than not?

Today she further explained her vote:

Originally Posted by Ka

Still stand by what I said yesterday of pushing Mac right on through, it was just orchestrated too easily and I’d rather throw bumps in the road to examine who protests the most. Will admit that once I had a chance to re-read previous posts, Legate's suspicions on Lottie did stand out to me when I was looking at who could possibly gain the most on the Mac distraction. By the time I posted I knew it was going to be swamped by Mac votes and was preparing for foot stomping that I was being a spoil-sport, however, I didn't see Rune's vote until after since I was writing my vote in a separate window and reading posts backwards. I just assumed afterwards, he read the same as I.

Okay, I don't find her vote reasoning necessarily suspicious. As for timing - her posts are lengthy so I'm not sure how aware she was that Hui was being brought to the table.

On that note, it doesn't appear that Hui and Ka at any point interacted or mentioned each other. Could be nothing, or could be two wolves staying clear of each other.

In summary, I don't think I'm any better informed about The Ka. She could go either way.

[Brinniel]

Rune on Day 2:

Complains about long posts and chastises the Kit/Ranger discussion.

Mentions that Ka quoted him on something he didn't say in post#426. Was it this?

*raises on eyebrow* I don't love how he continually brings up himself as mewolf and crafts a conspiracy theory around wolves setting him up.

Seems likely to be a misquote. Don't know who originally said it, but she just comments on Mac from that quote rather than directly responding to the person who said it.

In post #498, he doesn't do lists, but does one. He categorizes:
Neutral:Lommy, Pitch, Inzil, Ka
Good: Legate, Lhuna, Shasta
Possibly Sinister: Lottie, Brinn, Eonwe
No read on the others.

For Lottie (whom he later voted) he says

Originally Posted by Rune

I really get a bad vibe from Loslote, but to be honest 50% of her posts seem outright reasonable. The reason she still makes this list is that I did not care for her post 114 where she tried to keep the Legate-Pitch day 1 spat going, without commiting. In post 294 she seems to commit to an agenda of getting a Brinn voter lynched, which i did not care for.

Took a look at the two posts he referenced - the first is post of Lottie sharing concerns of the LGP group. The second he's referring to:

Originally Posted by Lottie

I am a little bit side-eyeing the late (but before the "reveal") Brinn voters. If you were a wolf, you'd probably rather keep the loud, distracting player who is haring after someone not in your pack than keep the quieter player who isn't going to help you hide as much. Specifically, Mac, Legate, and Rune.

Which was followed with short analyses of the three. I don't see how "a little bit of side-eyeing" can be interpreted as "committing to an agenda of getting a Brinn voter lynched." To me, Rune is overreacting, maybe because he's on that list?

He then proceeds to vote Lottie because he's going with "gut feeling (and the reasons on the list of doom)."

ToDay he criticized Lottie for how she categorized early and late voters. Fair to be critical, but his tone was a bit jumpy.

Like Ka, I did not spot any interactions with him and Hui (unless I'm missing something).

I find Rune's suspicions of Lottie to be flimsy partly because of his overreaction to that post and partly because in his description for her he finds her posts 50% reasonable, which is a bit noncommittal. I also see his vote as a bit of a throwaway; sure it was early enough to go any way, but at that time a Lottie lynch did not seem very likely. I am not as suspicious of Rune as I am of others, but I am wary of him.

---

I'd like to also take a gander at Lhuna and possibly Kath who are also floating under my radar, but that may need to wait until morning as I am tired.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by THE Ka

That’s not the best of signs to lose a Ranger in the earlier half of the game. On the flip side, I still wonder why Kit was rather honest in the last wee moments of Day 1 to G55’s bluff (unless just hoping that it could be left as a clue to others and hopefully never mentioned again? Yet it does the opposite and then is brought up half way through Day 2 until attempted to be hushed).

I find this comment from THE Ka a bit off, given that she seconded Inzil calling Kit’s slip “curious” and so was instrumental in bringing it up in the first place; as long as it was only Inzil and no one else reacting to what he said, there was still hope it could be left alone. THE Ka didn’t take part in the later actual discussion about this with Kit herself, and was mostly ignored by people who called the whole thing suspicious. Her bringing it up now as something unrelated to herself – something that was “brought up half way through Day 2” – rubs me the wrong way. As I said before, though, if Inzil is a wolf I doubt Ka is, as two wolves seconding each other on poking at a potential Gifted would be brazen to the point of suicidal.

Originally Posted by Lommy

This is actually a very good point. Unless of course the wolf pack really agreed with Mac's extremely pessimistic view on his chances to survive the Day and decided to bandwagon on him to make themselves look better "when" he'd die. (I'm sorry but I would find this terribly funny. )

I think this makes sense, actually – I mean Lottie’s theory, not necessarily Lommy’s conspiracy theory (though I agree it would be hilarious).

Originally Posted by Inzil

It's a given that the votes are scrutinized: that's the best evidence we have.
At that time, I was still fixed on the Rikae-as-possible-Seer idea, and Mac was the only one of their suspects I thought had a shot at being lynched.
Huey was not really on my radar, mainly because it seemed every time I tried to scan one of his posts my brain muttered "what is he talking about?"
I was highly tempted to vote him after I saw Kit, because I was 99% sure she wasn't evil. Then Pitch and Lottie voted for him and I was not going to throw in with people who had been talking about lynching me. Petty, yes. Sorry.

Not sure I buy this. The Mac suspicion and wanting to lynch him is fair enough, but that last bit? First off, I’m confused by Inzil’s whole thing with Kit and why he brought her up in the first place if he was “99% sure she wasn’t evil”. Or did he only come to this conclusion after she had basically confessed to giftedness? I feel like there was already something about this somewhere but my brain is getting muddled. Second eyebrow-raise though – even if he concluded Kit was innocent, the Ranger doesn’t know anything more than anyone else so again, the only thing you’ll know from following her vote is that she won’t deliberately try to lead you astray. If he didn’t supect Huin, considering voting for him because Kit did so too doesn’t really make sense.

That said, Lalaith said basically the same thing, except she actually did go ahead and vote for Huin. I don’t necessarily agree with the argument, but as I said before, voting for a fellow wolf while saying you don’t really want to would be a strange move for a wolf – especially if (as in Lal’s case) you had another option open too.

Originally Posted by Pitch

I prefer LPG, which was the abbreviation for "Landwirtschaftliche Produktionsgenossenschaft" in the GDR.

Gesundheit.

Originally Posted by Legate

And yeah, I should perhaps be happy for knowing people sharing the idea, but Greenie's happy jump on the idea to vote Brinn seems worrisome to me.

Originally Posted by Legate

Greenie->Mac 2. Again, see Lommy. Note: she considered Brinniel equally much but opted for Mac (Greenie, why did you choose Mac over Brinn in the end?)

To answer the first point – I’m not sure if it counts as a “happy jump” on Brinn given that pretty much all I’d done the entire day was waver between Mac and Brinn. As for the second – that’s a fair question. In short, I could have gone either way but in the end thought the argument against Mac was stronger. Long version? I could see a possible scenario where innocent Brinn gets suspected over some unfortunate wordings early on, goes increasingly on the defensive, and then gets increasingly suspected for ensuing jumpiness; whereas I couldn’t think of a scenario where innocent Mac gets this level of paranoid about being implicated by a Night kill, or comes up with complicated theories about Cobbler55 thinking him a possible wolf dreamed by a Seer Rikae and then discusses this as connected to a theory that the wolves thought Rikae’s death implicates him and therefore he is being framed. Like, even if the wolves had picked up on G55’s supposed pegging of Mac as a Seer-dreamed wolf, surely they would have ignored this (or at least, not taken it as a sign of Rikae’s possible seerishness) unless Mac was one of them. So both parts separately, paranoid but still possibly fine. But the combination, and the fact that he very much presented them as connected parts of the same theory? I really, really don’t see how an innocent Mac would think this way.

Originally Posted by Legate

Yeah, let's keep that in mind. But actually, especially with the Evil QT, I am again (just like yesterDay with the Cobbler there) against any such vote. Because what use is it now? Only to tell the Evil QT what we are likely to do. Nopes. WWs would use it to signal the QT. Nopes. Anyone who does so goes into my suspect book. (Starting from you right now, *ping*(TM).)

I have to agree with Legate here – I don’t get how an evil-majority QT means we should try pre-voting again. Boro, can you explain?

Originally Posted by Eonwe

Also, I realise that I suspected Zil based on his first post toDay because he immediately suggested wolf-on-wolf and Lommy on her first post toDay because she immediately focused on the opposite.

But I think immediately focusing on Hui-voters in the first post of the Day when there are definitely guilty Mac-voters seems like misdirection. On the other hand, Lommy saying that it's basically impossible makes me uneasy because it does seem like an option, just not the most obvious one.

This is a fair point. And while we’re on the subject of fishy reactions to the Huin lynch -

Originally Posted by Mac

Inzil's first comment might just be an innocent "oh boy, maybe I voted for the wrong person", but Sally's is chock-full of wolfish vote-self-awareness.

I kind of agree with Mac here (!!). I don’t like Sally’s repeated assertions (both last thing yesterDay and first thing toDay) that this makes her look bad. She then says that as a wolf she tends to bus her packmates so she wouldn’t have tried to save Huin if she was his packmate, but as was pointed out, this could just as well be Sally trying to cover her tracks with “but I never do that as a wolf!”

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I should make some summary or something because I keep reading people and thinking half of everything people say looks fishy, which does not bode well.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Seriously, folks. I know I'm a main topic of conversation, but don't get tunnel-vision.

I wasn't really worried about Zil until he said this.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

You know, I thought about that - how Sallywolf wouldn't mind throwing a packmate under the bus - but now that you've brought it up, I'm wondering if maybe you are a wolf who panicked in the heat of the moment and toDay are hiding under the excuse that it's not your typical gameplay style.

I really don't like that Sally keeps bringing up the idea that both Mac and Hui are wolves. Sure, it's always possible, but I find it less likely. It feels like she is trying to use this as a distraction from the Mac voters, herself included.


What, are you feeling miffed that people are calling your kills boring and safe?

And this to keep in mind if either of Brinn or Sally turns out to be a Wolf. It almost sounds like a good Wolf-on-Wolf banter to me. (Warning: I'm gonna mention Wolf-on-Wolf few times here and I'm aware it isn't helpful at the moment. This whole post is sort of "for referrence".)

I somehow don't know at all what to do with Eönwë's way of posting, he seems as if his train of thought is "removed" from many of the trajectories the "mainstream debate" takes. Nothing against that. Regardless however some points he makes make me wary, but there is a lot of innocentish stuff too. He has just been drawing my eye recently.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Shastanis Althreduin - I didn't like how he waited until his vote didn't matter.

To file: this is so hypocritical and the following is so "casual" that it may be a soft Wolf-on-Wolf.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

In response to Eonwe - you did basically the same thing, bruh. You and I were the last to vote. In my case, I was watching the votes basically be a perfect tie and thinking "well these reactions are gonna be interesting." I didn't have a good enough read on either Huin or Mac to warrant specifically saving one or the other, and I didn't have an evil-enough read to warrant condemning one or the other, so I was concentrating more on the voters than the votees.

I am uneasy with Lhuna's post about bandwagons and stuff, also didn't originally make anything out of her reaction to Hui's "wolf e-mails"; this however sounds a bit like it could be faked:

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

I meant it as banter, but imagine my surprise when he did turn out to be a wolf! Wow what a carelessly dropped statement that was.

But I should probably focus on something where I am a bit more certain. These are sort of shouts in the dark.

Just overall: it's very nice how some people say "there are WWs unlikely to be in first half of Huiwagon" (Lottie) or equally dogmatically "there are WWs likely to be in the first half of Huiwagon" (Eönwë) or "there has to be a Wolf among Huiwagon" (Lommy) - point is, there doesn't have to be anything anywhere, still, in this big village.

I am wondering about Brinn and the first Day Brinnwagon and everything related to it. It seems clear that Hui stayed off it, and his generic behaviour is sort of avoidant (not naming too many suspects, being friendly where he could, etc.). Can it point to some pattern in his behaviour in relation to his voting strategy? Meaning, are those he voted likely to be innocent? (We know G55 was "innocent", in the sense, she was a non-Wolf.) And could Brinn be his packmate?

Knowing myself, I am unlikely to make a conclusive statement after I re-read his posts once again, but I will try. (I promise not to post a novel on it though, because it's been here many times already. I find it good however that everyone is trying to do their own maths.)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

What you're seeing is my word use breaking down because I spent ten mi utes trying to get this post typed on my phone and then realised the time. /After/ repeatedly updating the tallies at the end; it was 3/3/4 when I started!

I'm really suspicious of the let's lynch Brinn movement; I think there's a wolf deep inside it. As I said a few posts back, I'd rather have gone Pitch, but voted G55 as far more likely than Brinn.

hS

Just stumbled upon this, among other things. I'm wondering whether I should just return to my early hunch and scrutinise Brinn further. (Her recent posts have been better, but I mean, she's a good Wolf player, and often if she manages to get suspected early and manages to get off the hook, she's able to maintain her presence for long.) But that would also mean that the WWs would have been really hard pressed in this village - having very strong bandwagons against one both Days! But of course it's possible.

As a sidenote, "I think there's a wolf deep inside it" also sounds like it could be the case of a Wolf randomly telling the truth. (If we took it literally, it would have to be Pitch, Ka or Rune, who had participated in the Brinnwagon before Hui said this. But it could also have been just a second-hand way to potentially use against Rikae - the one who started the Brinnwagon and is now known innocent - later, if it was needed.)

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Okay, so the one thing I'm picking up from this post: Zil is not expanding his suspect list based on yesterDay's votes. He's not taking anyone off his list - understandable - and he hasn't added anyone to his list - absolutely wild, considering how much information we got yesterDay. To me, this screams "wolf that knows his time is limited and doesn't want to give the village a single piece of information to link him to his packmates".

Or, an innocent who honestly is trying to link everything together, not just the most recent votes.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by THE Ka

Pushing yourself forward as a reminder smells awfully similar to what happened with Mac yesterDay. Are we going to see a rehashed plot toDay?

If it ends with me not getting lynched, sure.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Zil

Seriously, folks. I know I'm a main topic of conversation, but don't get tunnel-vision.

Can I start giving paranoid wolf awards? YesterDay Mac and Brinn for thinking they're being framed by the Rikae kill, toDay Sally and Inzil being convinced they're done for. None of that looks very innocent to me.

Sally looks very furry to me right now. She did before, her vote was the worst, and her apologetic attitude toDay is not helping her cause at all. Fishy fishy lupine fish.

Eönwë - I did consider it very likely that there isn't much wolf-on-wolf in the Huinewagon, but I wasn't as adamant about it as you claim. And if you read my subsequent post where I analysed the votes, I actually do point out which Huine votes look the most wolf-on-wolf to me (Brinn and especially Lalaith). That being said, I absolutely stand with my assesment that when we have evidence of people having voted in way that prevents a wolf lynch (again, slightly dependent on Mac's role though), I don't think we should focus on those who did the opposite. I'm not for giving the Huine voters a pass idefinitely, but I am giving them a pass for toDay. And those whose vote was particularly unwolfily placed, probably for a few more Days than that. I would advise you to do the same. There are a lot of people in this village and to a degree, you've got to pick who you focus on.

Originally Posted by Lhuna

Does that satisfy you, Lommy?

Hm. I guess. It was still a rather weird comment without a context.

Originally Posted by Lhuna

I meant it as banter, but imagine my surprise when he did turn out to be a wolf! Wow what a carelessly dropped statement that was.

Yeah, I noticed this when Lhuna pointed it out but it was so glaring that I actually ignored it?! Given that, like I've said, I had hard time understanding where Hui was ever coming from, I gave them the benefit of doubt and interpreted it as them talking about having email subsrcibed to the ww thread. But looks like the simpler explanation was true and I should have certainly remembered this slip because had Hui's meaning been innocent, I can't see why they wouldn't have replied to Lhuna and clarified it. But yes, quite telling that no one else than Lhuna caught onto or commented on this. (I'm not sure it automatically makes Lhuna innocent though? If the slipup seemed obvious to wolf!Lhuna, wouldn't she hurry to point it out because she might feel it's fishy not to. Then maybe she dropped it because everybody else ignored it and she thought maybe she overreacted and her packmate didn't condemn themselves after all?)

Originally Posted by Legate

Just overall: it's very nice how some people say "there are WWs unlikely to be in first half of Huiwagon" (Lottie) or equally dogmatically "there are WWs likely to be in the first half of Huiwagon" (Eönwë) or "there has to be a Wolf among Huiwagon" (Lommy) - point is, there doesn't have to be anything anywhere, still, in this big village.

I didn't say that! My statement of this type was "there has to be a wolf among the people who vote Mac after Hui became a serious lynch candidate" and I do stand behind that. (I mean of course nothing is certain, but I'm like 99% certain and that's enough for me.)


xed with 2 Zils

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

If it ends with me not getting lynched, sure.

Both of you please explain what you're referring to (ie what aspect of "what happened with Mac yesterDay" are you referring to - quite a lot happened with Mac yesterday. )

[Lalaith]

So, I pondered in the night that one thing this game has highlighted, is that both innocents and wolves can slip up.
Kit's late-night blurt at G55's false ranger reveal, and then (which most of us failed to spot) Huey's wolf email slip...

I've been thinking Emails With Wolves sounds like quite a low-key sequel to Dances with Wolves...

Brinn:

Least suspicious votes of the Hui voters are Legate and Pitchwife. They were earlier and really got the ball rolling. Eonwe or Lalaith could possibly be wolf-on-wolf votes if they thought he was not worth saving. I'm somewhere in between the two on Lottie.

Your own vote for Hui cross-posted, I think, with mine. If Eonwe and I (and possibly Lottie) are slightly suspicious Hui voters in your mind, what about your vote?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Ok, let's say I wake up on Day 2 and find a Ranger alive when I thought they should have been killed. What do I do? I keep it to myself!!! Why should I even open my mouth about it, unless I am a Wolf or a Cobbler? If I mention it, I'm only adding fuel to the fire of the Wolves, who may exactly have orchestrated this to have her lynched, or may accidentally draw out the real Ranger (if this was a mistake and the person isn't a Ranger after all), etc.

Summa summarum: I can't see a single benefit of bringing it up, and I can see a lot of ways that it can harm someone.

I feel for this poor beaten horse, but one last thing. On the last summa, ask what benefit a wolfly me would get from putting Kit on the spot? I would know she wasn't a wolf. She would probably be the Ranger or Seer. Why not sit back and wait for someone else to bring it up, and get suspected for it (worked splendidly).

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Shrug. I'm the only person I know I'm innocent. If it looks like I'm being offered the hammer, I'm gonna take the hammer.

Whatever Shasta may be, I have to admire his style.

[Lalaith]

Another thing: I have, like a lot of people, been thinking about wolf-on-wolf voting, and with two specific questions in mind:
1. Does Legate's first vote for Hui mean that I was wrong to suspect him yesterDay?
2. Does Hui's 3rd vote for Mac point to his (Mac's) innocence?

Another thing then crossed my mind. Would the fact that a dead wolf ensures that the baddie vote now dominates the QT, make wolves less reluctant to lynch each other? After all, this means the packmate can continue to be useful and push their agenda elsewhere...

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Not sure I buy this. The Mac suspicion and wanting to lynch him is fair enough, but that last bit? First off, I’m confused by Inzil’s whole thing with Kit and why he brought her up in the first place if he was “99% sure she wasn’t evil”. Or did he only come to this conclusion after she had basically confessed to giftedness? I feel like there was already something about this somewhere but my brain is getting muddled. Second eyebrow-raise though – even if he concluded Kit was innocent, the Ranger doesn’t know anything more than anyone else so again, the only thing you’ll know from following her vote is that she won’t deliberately try to lead you astray. If he didn’t supect Huin, considering voting for him because Kit did so too doesn’t really make sense.

Kit's explanation seemed genuine enough, and her posts after that didn't feel evil. My thought was that following her, I would at least be less likely to vote for a known innocent, as opposed to being led by wolves.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Both of you please explain what you're referring to (ie what aspect of "what happened with Mac yesterDay" are you referring to - quite a lot happened with Mac yesterday. )

From my view, just that he got a lot of votes but someone else got lynched.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Another thing: I have, like a lot of people, been thinking about wolf-on-wolf voting, and with two specific questions in mind:
1. Does Legate's first vote for Hui mean that I was wrong to suspect him yesterDay?
2. Does Hui's 3rd vote for Mac point to his (Mac's) innocence?

Another thing then crossed my mind. Would the fact that a dead wolf ensures that the baddie vote now dominates the QT, make wolves less reluctant to lynch each other? After all, this means the packmate can continue to be useful and push their agenda elsewhere...

1. I think Legate is pretty innocent-looking.
2. Not necessarily. I still say with five wolves they could afford to be a bit reckless voting one another.

As far as the QT goes, as long as we here know their vote is decided by wolves, we won't put any confidence in it. And really, having to be in well before our DL reduces the weight it might otherwise carry.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Another thing then crossed my mind. Would the fact that a dead wolf ensures that the baddie vote now dominates the QT, make wolves less reluctant to lynch each other? After all, this means the packmate can continue to be useful and push their agenda elsewhere...

A good point to consider. Of course the Wolves would not go straightaway "let's get one of ourselves lynched so we can continue to get one extra vote via the QT" - that would be absolutely useless strategy as one live Wolf gives as much of a vote as an entire dead QT. But they might still consider it a "consolation prize".

But let's make sure we differentiate properly here, as it's about small nuances: i.e. it is still obviously preferrable for the WWs not to get any of them lynched, ever, at all. They may just be a bit less reluctant to Wolf-on-Wolf vote than they would otherwise be. But nothing more, nothing less. It definitely does not mean that they would be eager to do so.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Fishy fishy lupine fish.

Can we please start calling all suspicious people this? <333

Originally Posted by Lommy

Yeah, I noticed this when Lhuna pointed it out but it was so glaring that I actually ignored it?! Given that, like I've said, I had hard time understanding where Hui was ever coming from, I gave them the benefit of doubt and interpreted it as them talking about having email subsrcibed to the ww thread. But looks like the simpler explanation was true and I should have certainly remembered this slip because had Hui's meaning been innocent, I can't see why they wouldn't have replied to Lhuna and clarified it. But yes, quite telling that no one else than Lhuna caught onto or commented on this. (I'm not sure it automatically makes Lhuna innocent though? If the slipup seemed obvious to wolf!Lhuna, wouldn't she hurry to point it out because she might feel it's fishy not to. Then maybe she dropped it because everybody else ignored it and she thought maybe she overreacted and her packmate didn't condemn themselves after all?)

Hm. I find Lhuna somewhat concerning so this is a definite possibility - in a way, a fellow wolf would be more sensitive to noticing wolf slips or thinking them obviously noticeable to everyone given that she'd know it was a slip.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

1. Does Legate's first vote for Hui mean that I was wrong to suspect him yesterDay?
2. Does Hui's 3rd vote for Mac point to his (Mac's) innocence?

Another thing then crossed my mind. Would the fact that a dead wolf ensures that the baddie vote now dominates the QT, make wolves less reluctant to lynch each other? After all, this means the packmate can continue to be useful and push their agenda elsewhere...

I'd say -

1) Legate being first to vote Huin in itself wouldn't be enough to absolve him, as he could have been counting on Mac being a certain lynch regardless of what he did. But this isn't what it sounded like at all. He checked first whether others would like to join him in voting Huin and only did so after a few others had expressed interest, and later egged others on to vote Huin. If wolf-on-wolf, this would be not only very brutal (not just throwing someone under the bus but actually inviting more buses to come along) but also quite unnecessary; why would Legate throw in a fairly under-the-radar fellow when he himself wasn't even suspected that much and didn't need the brownie points? So I'm inclined to leave Legate alone for the time being.

2) Not necessarily in my opinion - as I recall, it already looked like it was going to be between the two of them, and it's possible he decided to turn wolf-on-wolf to make whoever survived look better. I still think there's some merit to Lottie's point about it being somewhat unlikely that both of our major bandwagons yesterDay were against wolves, as we still had five wolves in play and at least some of them probably would rather have voted for an innocent than a packmate. Even given how last-minute the Huinwagon was, Inzil, Lommy and Lottie had also been voted, and Brinn was discussed. So if Huin and Mac were both wolves, I would have expected more of a push towards another candidate from their unknown packmates since there were other options on the table too.

[Lalaith]

Now something today about Eonwe didn't sit right and I went back over his posts. This is what I found.

YesterDay, Eonwe makes two posts drawing attention to the interaction betwen Shasta and Kit the second wondering if they are an infector pair
Then:
Eonwe, 5.23pm yesterDay (my italics)

Now that the Ranger discussion has been brought out into the public, I have to say that this post makes me feel better about Shasta:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin View Post
I think perhaps Kitanna is my best read at the moment. I had fundamentally the same reaction to G55's eleventh-hour Ranger claim as she did.
I know last time I said that it is possible that they are both wolves being cheeky, but it does seem more likely that he was, at least in that instance, trying to bury this discussion by pointing to Kit's post as something anyone might say. Again, it is possible that they are being very bold wolves, but generally, it seems risky to attach so closely to another wolf especially when you've voted in the same way. So whoever Shasta thinks the Ranger is, I think he is trying to protect them here by trying to suppress this discussion that has just been blown open (luckily not enough for any reveals to occur). Thus doesn't necessarily say anything about Kit's role, or even what Shasta thinks about Kit's role - whether he believes/believed that she is a gifted, ordo, or wolf, discussion of the Ranger is dangerous for the real Ranger.

(NB this was something Lottie had pointed to earlier anyway)
Then
Lalaith 7.22pm yesterDay

Ok I wasn't going to say anything about The Kit Thing but seeing as it's being openly discussed - *glares at certain people* -

(this is the first time I mention Kit at all)

Eonwe toDay re Kit:

I don't think it was a 100% obvious thing, and I'm a little suspicious of those who act like it was - it's a lot easier to believe someone's slip when you know no-one is trying to lie to you. I know part of my reason for putting her in the maybe suspicious category was to not make it such a big thing like you and Zil did. The more attention that got drawn to it, the more obvious it seemed.

Lalaith - I didn't like how she brought more attention to the fact that Kit was the Ranger yesterDay

So TL;DR Eonwe spends a lot of time yesterDay talking about Kit and Shasta, first as suspicious and then he openly discusses her being a Ranger, two hours before I mention her at all (at a time when KitRanger had been discussed by lots of people) and then toDay finds my comment suspicious for outing Kit.

Really. This does not look good.