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11-06-2010, 08:09 AM | #561 | |
Leaf-clad Lady
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I don't like this silence. I know there are few of us left and all that, but it remains a fact that toDay is a really important one. I have other stuff to do today too but I'll be popping in and out until Deadline (I can afford to stay up late for once since it's Saturday). There is another thing I don't like, and it's the fact that I have a nagging feeling that I've overlooked something important. Off to do some rereading and thinking to find out what that might be.
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11-06-2010, 08:23 AM | #562 | |
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And if you want to judge me based on the fact that sally seemed sure I was a wolf, go ahead, but you're wasting your time.
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11-06-2010, 08:35 AM | #563 | |
Leaf-clad Lady
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Quote:
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"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." |
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11-06-2010, 09:30 AM | #564 | |
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I doubt you'll find any reason even if you search all her posts with a magnifying glass. I think the most plausible explanation is that she seriously thought I was a wolf, and then it's up to you whether you trust her judgment or not.
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11-06-2010, 10:16 AM | #565 |
Fluttering Enchantment
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So the Agan-Sally thing. I get what Agan is saying about how a wolf may have wanted to draw attention to Sally's guilt, but also that whole thing was very strange and I'm surprised more people didn't really point that out at the time, so I'm not going to suspect Greenie or Form for just that reason. I also don't think that the way Sally went after Agan really gives us any information regarding Agan, because Sally didn't know who the wolves are any better than the rest of us, so her pesonal suspicions don't hold any extra weight.
So right now I'm still leaning towards Form being guilty (we can't keep thinking that the quiet people aren't as likely to be wolves, because there are still a lot of quiet people and there's no way they are all innocent) and his whole attitude is off. Pretending not to care is a pretty good way to go unnoticed. I feel pretty good about both Agan and Greenie. And I haven't payed enough attention to Pitch, Nerwen and Kath, I need to read over everything and actually form an opinion on them. I'll try to do that soon.
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Comme une étoile amarante Comme un papillon de nuit C'est la lumičre qui m'attire La flamme qui m'éblouit Fenris Muffin
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11-06-2010, 10:24 AM | #566 |
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I don't like this quiet.
There are 7 of us alive. 3-4 (or 2-5 because Ferny counts as an innocent). The wolves know at least each other's identity, possibly even Ferny's. Ferny might know at least one wolf, but even likelier is that he knows one or more ordos - who he can happily try to lynch. And if the baddies have any idea whatsoever about each other, it only takes one ordo who votes another ordo and we lose the game. I'm not sure how likely that is, but it's the worst scenario. Currently I'm feeling good about wilwa, and Pitch too (although to a slightly lesser degree). There's something going on in the Form/Greenie/Nerwen/Kath group, and I think it might well contain both wolves and Ferny. I'll try to get my thoughts about them organised in a bit.
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He bit me, and I was not gentle. Last edited by Aganzir; 11-06-2010 at 10:24 AM. Reason: xed with wilwa |
11-06-2010, 10:28 AM | #567 | |||
Dead Serious
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I am aware that, chiefly because of a lack of evidence about me, regarding ANYTHING, I am shaping into a chief candidate for consideration today. This is fair enough, however, as has been noted already, toDay we cannot afford an innocent lynching, lest the village lose the game, and as an innocent, I've no real interest in being the "lynchpin" (pun definitely intended).
I would have been quite happen to die on the Wolves' fangs at some point prior to now, but apparently they are enjoying my suspicious silence far too much. Well, it can't be helped. Nerwen has, accurately enough, called me 'aggressively unhelpful.' Also, she's tired of me drawing attention to my absence... Quote:
When I told Boro I could play, about a week prior to the game start, I did have high hopes of being more involved, but a week makes a difference, and I may have overestimated my involvement. Still, I've done my best to give the bare minimum to the game (and to the village's victory), and I would have been somewhat happier if that had involved being a warm body for the Wolves to eat, but they have shrewdly left me alive. (Besides, who knows, it might have pointed at Agan's guilt if I turned up dead.) As to the constant drawing attention to my own lack of involvement... call that self-punishment, of a sort, since I still have a (long outdated) mental image of being a "talks too much" player, and something of a self-defence. As Nerwen said... Quote:
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Personally, I'm still feeling rather anti-Agan. I do still put stock in Shasta's mention of her with me (and, yes, I know this cuts both ways, but I happen to be well aware of my innocence), and she's been all kinds of suspicious, all game... but never tested. Granted, this is a point-of-no-return for lynching innocents, but speaking a potential "innocent lynchee," I'm already aware of that.
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11-06-2010, 10:38 AM | #568 | |
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Form looks fairly bad.
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11-06-2010, 10:54 AM | #569 | |
Dead Serious
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So, yes, you have only been suspicious enough to me in the last few Days. That does not mean there was never any suspicion of you. However, I'll admit that it could just be that, looking suspicion and leaving too many trails, the wolves have left you alive. But I need another candidate then to vote for... and contrary to the assertion that I have been following everything closely this game, I really don't know who else to vote. Nerwen rubs me the wrong way, but that's just normal for me playing with her, and anyway she's the one with the long critical analysis of me--it'd be unsporting to vote for her just for that.
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11-06-2010, 11:35 AM | #570 |
Dead Serious
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Well, I just lost an hour of deliberation--the lovely Nienna just texted that she's done her course early, so I'm off to meet her and do nauseatingly romantic things...
So... I guess I should vote. ++ Aganzir Because while I am not sure it's the right thing to do, I feel better sticking to my guns, going down honourably, than about changing thoughts at this stage.
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11-06-2010, 11:39 AM | #571 |
Everlasting Whiteness
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This is the only time toDay I have to be online and my friend is round so I'm going to do what I hate doing and vote and run.
++GREENIE She struck me as suspicious yesterDay and I KNOW that's terrible reasoning.
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11-06-2010, 11:41 AM | #572 |
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Form if you're innocent, you've most likely lost the game for us.
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11-06-2010, 11:59 AM | #573 |
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(Most of this post was written before anyone had voted - I went to get some food and Form & Kath posted in the meanwhile.)
Speaking a bit more about Shasta's post where he said Form and me should be modfired... Which is more suspicious: being mentioned by a dying wolf, or reacting heavily to it & taking pains to paint the other person in a bad light, just so no one would connect you with the dead wolf? I don't know what to think of Nerwen. She's been kind of... elusive the whole game. Her reasons for suspecting me haven't been too impressive (might be just because I know I'm innocent). However, now she's suspicious of Form, too... so I'm probably not voting for her today. Greenie is something of an enigma too. I've been thinking her innocent pretty much the whole game which is, albeit not unprecedented, unusual because normally I always quarrel with her at some point. She's looked pretty genuine in general - but she voted for EW, and suggested either Eomer or me is probably a wolf (wrong), and I've been disagreeing with her more and more lately. Kath has been under my radar mostly. She hasn't really done anything to raise my hackles (except vote for EW), but Shasta had a subtle way of defending her. Yesterday she wanted to vote neither Eomer nor Form, saying she found them both innocent. I don't think she and Form are fellows (she could have just come up with a reason to vote for me). My thoughts aren't much clearer, except that I could vote for Form or Greenie today. I'd prefer Form if there's a chance to lynch him, but even Greenie would be way better than me because there's at least a possibility she's a baddie.
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11-06-2010, 11:59 AM | #574 |
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Present and putting the eyebrows on the Greenalysis I've promised you. Give me about half an hour.
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11-06-2010, 12:55 PM | #575 |
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A Little Greenalysis
D1
Agrees with Volo that BW would be more honest in her suspicions than wolves, having no knowledge of others' roles, hence hard to catch. Wants to discuss cobblers rather than BW, concerned about cobblers and wolves working together because of Ferny's spying abilities. Doesn't like Eomer's and Glirdan's votes, they're too easy. OK with Nog, bad feeling about me for thinking too much from the wolves' POV. Votes Glirdan, because his random vote is excellent wolf-cover. (All fair enough for D1; I disagreed with her concentration on cobblers over the BW at the time, but it was an attempt to broaden the discussion, in so far OK.) D2 Feels better about me, doesn't like the Aganwagon, is torn about Agan herself but thinks we have better options. Answers me about holes in Nog's arguments against Agan, Nog just doesn't look wolvish. Questions Eomer's and Form's votes: why does entertaining trump useful, and both too easy. We shouldn't focus on the BW, but it's OK to discuss whom the wolves might have targeted. Doesn't think Nog looked Seer-like. No vote. (No strong opinions or suspicions on anybody, but still good enough, I think.) D3 Questions Form's quietness and vote. Paranoid that Form, Kath and Eomer could be wolves together. Questions Agan's reason to vote Volo 'for being weird', when he always is, then agrees she had a pretty sensible reason, i.e. that Volo suspected Agan for not suspecting Greenie. A list: pretty much undecided, confused or no idea about most people; not surprised if Eomer is a wolf; both pro and con wolf points about Kath, namely she voted on principles instead of suspicion, which she could have done both as an innocent and as a wolf (she wavers a lot on this); slightly worried by Lottie but has nothing on her; sally's D1 vote not fabulous; feeling OK with Shasta; wilwa seems genuine. Analyses TEW: his flip-flopping not evil in itself, but doesn't like his dropping earlier suspicions without explanation; not sure a wolf-TEW would be so openly inconsistent. Could vote Eomer or TEW, Agan innocent, Shasta and Kath seem genuine but she's not certain, at a loss with Zil; quarrel between Agan and sally makes her feel worse about both; votes TEW in spite of his earlier doubts: his inconsistency too off to be genuine, and he's an unhelpful submarine. (One thing I noticed about her that Day is the amount of uncertainty, flipflopping and maybe-maybe not in most of her posts. Could be a clueless ordo, could also be a wolf avoiding to take a clear stance or more likely a cobbler who doesn't yet know whose side to take. Her tone, however, doesn't really ring false in my ears. About the vote - what I said about Lottie yesterDay also applies to Greenie, and as we know now Lottie was innocent, it makes me wonder whether Greenie may be, too, so I wouldn't condemn her on that alone.) D4 Shasta: intends to vote him 'unless something even more drastic turns up', because it's a clear lead from the Seer, but we shouldn't talk about him all Day. sally's Agan-crusade not making sense; guesses sally is Ferny and has found Agan innocent, but not sure if that makes sense; sally's behaviour untypical for her innocent self and too attention-seeking for a wolf or BW. Votes Shasta. (Shasta and the sally-Agan thing were the big topics of the Day, and while everybody discussed the former, few people commented on the latter, so that would speak in her favour.) D5 Doesn't get Agan's point that Shasta's comment linking himself and Nerwen was weird or suspicious. (I don't quite, either.) Still musing what made sally go so heavily after Agan. Agrees with Eomer to leave Lottie alone because TEW dreamed her innocent. Her intuition says to vote someone who isn't considered otherwise, e.g. Nerwen or wilwa, but she won't, having nothing on Nerwen and thinking wilwa innocent. (An odd remark - if she had no real suspicion of either, where did that intuition come from?) Her big point yesterDay was that Shasta suspected both Agan and Eomer a lot but never voted either; this could be wolf-on-wolf, though probably not with both, hence maybe with neither. Shasta's connection to Agan looks worse, though Agan looks more innocent otherwise; Eomer more likely a wolf, more likely to be lynched, and something hasn't been right with him all the game, therefore she votes him. (Note how she first brings up this point against Agan and Eomer, then immediately questions it, but ends up voting Eomer nevertheless 'because he's more likely to be lynched' - rather bandwagony. I'm worried by how immediately Form latched onto this point, but that's rather a point against Form than against Greenie herself.) Conclusion so far: Hard to say. Again, what most hits my eye is a lot of uncertainty and then jumping to conclusions in the thoughts leading up to her votes on D3 and D5 (at least it looks to me that way). If she's a confuzzled ordo I can totally sympathize with that, though it could of course be a mask... Still I have to say she sounds honest to me. What mainly stands out from this is how she was mostly unsuspicious of Agan on D1 and 2, convinced of her innocence on D3, took her side against sally on D4, suddenly started suspecting her on D5 but still thought her more innocent than Eomer. If Agan should be a wolf, I could imagine Greenie as her packmate doing some passing wolf-on-wolf to cover that she was actually focussed on lynching Eomer.
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11-06-2010, 01:48 PM | #576 | |||
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Now I'm somewhat worried about almost everyone seeming to be somewhat suspicious of Form... Are we really onto something there, or are the wolves trying to get us to lynch an innocent him? Although it might even be worth it to lynch a suspected fellow(/cobbler) in order to look better yourself...
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11-06-2010, 02:14 PM | #577 |
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Oops, I totally failed to notice Form and Kath had voted before my first post.
I came out of yesterDay thinking loads of Agan's innocence for her attempt to save Eombadil of the Yellow Boots (and wishing I'd had sense enough not to ruin it), let's see whether that holds. At the time of her vote, the tally was Eomer 3 votes, me and Agan herself 1 each, with Eomer, me and Kath still to vote. Both Eomer and Agan had been suspected by Greenie and Form. Eomer thought Agan innocent and was unlikely to vote her (unless forced to in self-defense), but if both Kath and me had voted Agan, she could still have ended up being tied with Eomer and lynched by coin flip (assuming Agan and Kath aren't wolves together). Where Kath's vote would go seemed pretty uncertain, and I had expressly said that I was still trying to figure Agan out. In this situation, Eomer was her natural ally - hence my paranoia before DL that one of them was manipulating the other (and possibly me and Kath too) to sacrifice Form and save themselves; and Agan wouldn't have wanted to put him into a position where he might turn against her to save himself, with the danger of me and Kath following suit. The problem is, all this equally applies to an innocent Agan. All that's conclusive is that if Agan's a wolf, Kath can't be and vice versa, for in this case Agan could have counted on Kath to save her in any case and would have had no reason not to simply vote Eomer (except that saving an innocent would make her look good, but I think it's a little late in the game for that).
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11-06-2010, 02:27 PM | #578 |
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That's exactly the reason I wanted to save him (or, part of it). When I reread his posts yesterday, the one comment that had earlier struck me as Wightish (about leaving Nog for Tom and ignoring him until that) made me stop and think, "it would really make the most sense for the (dead) BW - or Tom himself to say so." That combined with the fact that three people seemed to want to lynch us both, and suddenly he didn't look half so bad anymore... Although I wasn't sure of it and was afraid I was reading too much into it.
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11-06-2010, 02:33 PM | #579 | |
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11-06-2010, 02:40 PM | #580 | |
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So it would be better for them to lynch an ordo, but if a wolf is under heavy suspicion, I'd say it's worth it to lynch them - after all, it'd only mean one extra day of survival to the remaining wolf who'd then (probably) look a lot better. However, the innocents are still a majority in the village... So Form being suspected by many doesn't yet make him an ordo.
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11-06-2010, 02:50 PM | #581 |
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Anyway I might as well vote now.
++Formendacil For the simple reason that I suspect him the most. If he's innocent it doesn't matter anymore, the wolves can choose if they want to lynch him or me... But I'm hopeful.
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11-06-2010, 03:12 PM | #582 |
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Okay Greenie just called to let us know that her computer isn't working at all. She said she'll call me again later (about 15 minutes before the deadline) and tell who she'll vote.
Right now it's Form - Agan Kath - Greenie Agan - Form Left: Greenie, Nerwen, Pitch, wilwa Is anyone else but Pitch here?
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He bit me, and I was not gentle. |
11-06-2010, 03:21 PM | #583 | |
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Ah, right, I miscalculated. So the situation isn't quite as bleak as I thought, but still bleak enough.
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Which makes me frown at Nerwen's explanation of her vote in her first post toDay, and she doesn't look too shiny all in all from yesterDay - first discarding Lottie's Alpha-theory which suggested Eomer and me as likeliest wolves, then still picking Eomer from the two of us, then agreeing with Greenie's point against you and Eomer, and again picking Eomer, like she was using whatever got thrown her way to justify voting him.
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11-06-2010, 03:26 PM | #584 | |
Leaf-clad Lady
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11-06-2010, 03:28 PM | #585 | |||
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(I have a feeling I say this quite often these days.) Quote:
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I don't know about Nerwen though... I think the most suspicious thing she did yesterday was joining the "either Eomer or Agan is probably a wolf" group.
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He bit me, and I was not gentle. Last edited by Aganzir; 11-06-2010 at 03:28 PM. Reason: xed with Greenie. Yay! |
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11-06-2010, 03:32 PM | #586 |
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Form the most suspicious? Really? I'm actually inclined to think his self-esteem wouldn't allow him to muddle through like this if he's a wolf. And do we have no other options? Or could it be that you suddenly don't care that much anymore about who gets lynched?
Really, where is everybody else? I'll be seriously cross if you leave me to botch this all on my own. EDIT: x-ed with Greenie and Agan.
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11-06-2010, 03:39 PM | #587 | ||
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11-06-2010, 03:40 PM | #588 | |
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He bit me, and I was not gentle. |
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11-06-2010, 03:41 PM | #589 |
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You know what's buttering up? "I don't want to vote for Pitch because I think he looks the most innocent of all and his intelligence and leadership may bring us yet to a great victory!" Expressing sympathy isn't the same. At least for me.
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11-06-2010, 03:44 PM | #590 |
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I suddenly got really afraid of Pitch...
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11-06-2010, 03:46 PM | #591 | |
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Anybody else going to vote?
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11-06-2010, 03:49 PM | #592 | |
Leaf-clad Lady
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I'm not entirely convinced by this Form-wagon, or the beginnings of it. Granted, he's been strange, but it doesn't look too much like wolvish strange to me if you know what I mean. I know it's a leaking argument but I would think a wolf would make more of an effort. But then again, his jump on Agan does look evil. But then again, so does Agan's sudden
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Kath has struck me as pretty genuine too, though at this point I wouldn't be surprised if she turned out to be evil after all - I really feel like I'm being cheated royally, and Kath is really capable of that. Wilwa seems genuine too, and of her innocence I'm pretty sure - or, as sure as is possible. Nerwen is a headache, I don't really have an argument for her innocence nor against it. Pitchwife is another such, I'd have tried for a closer look at these two but didn't have the time (thanks computer). And I have an annoying feeling that our wolves are among these last four, with possibly even a Ferny-Agan leading the village and being at the center of things while the wolves slip by. But then again, I loathe voting without arguments and I truly have none on the famous last four. EDIT: x-ed with a bunch
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11-06-2010, 03:49 PM | #593 | |
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Greenie, if you're innocent, vote for Form. Pitch, if you're innocent, vote for Greenie or Form. If you vote for me, we most likely lose. Where are Nerwen & wilwa?
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He bit me, and I was not gentle. Last edited by Aganzir; 11-06-2010 at 03:50 PM. Reason: xed with greenie |
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11-06-2010, 03:52 PM | #594 | |
Leaf-clad Lady
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11-06-2010, 03:53 PM | #595 | |
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I am having doubts. I am not convinced of Form's guilt. But he looks more evil than the rest of you.
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11-06-2010, 03:53 PM | #596 |
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Aaw, poor Agan! (Sorry, just couldn't resist.)
Seriously, don't. I think after all I'll rather be fooled by a wolf who fought a good fight than a sub. ++Form
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11-06-2010, 03:54 PM | #597 |
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Yes I probably would, but this time I'm actually innocent.
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He bit me, and I was not gentle. Last edited by Aganzir; 11-06-2010 at 03:55 PM. Reason: xed with Pitch |
11-06-2010, 03:55 PM | #598 |
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Pitch, if you're a wolf, I'm going to kill you after the game!
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11-06-2010, 03:55 PM | #599 |
Leaf-clad Lady
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Why is it so quiet? Anyway, it's bound to be Form or Agan anyway since spreading the votes at this point and in this small a village would make no sense. I don't know - Agan looks both more innocent and more evil than Form. Either of them could be bad, but I doubt both are.
EDIT: x-ed with lots again
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11-06-2010, 03:56 PM | #600 |
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Form - Agan
Kath - Greenie Agan - Form Pitch - Form 2 Left: Greenie, Nerwen, wilwa
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He bit me, and I was not gentle. |
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