Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by Valier

I just noticed, but on POST #267 on pg.7 The Phantom put an arrow in his post, was he the Hunter by then? and if so this is perfect for Roa, she would see this and kill him not thinking he would pick Naria to kill....wait did he pick her? She also wouldn't fret knowing she could make another wolf even if he did pick one to bring with him.....Hmmmmmm weird indeed!

There was no gifted made Night 1, and the Seer was made on Night 2, so the phantom could not have been made the Hunter until Night 3, when he was killed.

Valier, I like your thought in post #465 about EW picking obvious bad guys; sort of reverse psychology. I also find it interesting who this brings you to suspect. Especially that Diamond is among them.

And no, I don't think there's any anagram in the phantom's post. But I have been wrong; many times in fact.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I hope she really didn't say that for I never voted Loki...

My mistake, that should be Nogrod. She didn't like you switching to Nogrod. (There's me being wrong, by the way. )

[JennyHallu]

Two and a half hours left and this has really been a fairly quiet village this afternoon. I find myself at something of a loss: No one looks particularly suspicious today, except perhaps for Fea, Zali (maybe), and Di (maybe)...I'm inclined to think the third day 1 wolf (I firmly believe Loki was telling the truth...) probably was someone from that fateful list of SPM's though...

I think the wolves worked like this:

Night 1:

Loki, Nogrod, ??A??

Night 2:

??B??

Night 3:

Naria

Night 2 and Night 3 may be switched, but I think Naria was innocent Night 1. I don't know if I think LMP would have merely chosen the most recent wolf to kill rather than use one of his ever-present dice. A d3, anyone?

I think A is a SPM list-member, or one from that basic category: intelligent, trusted, moderate. B I am completely unsure of. But this list does rather put the EW as someone rather brash: Roa, Fea, morm, Diamond...there are probably others capable of trying to pull off a Loki/Nogrod/??A?? combo...

Must think and vote later.

[Valier]

Originally Posted by Thin

I think your ideas are a bit far-fetched, Valier. Calm down. He was a hunter already then.

I don't think they're far fetched...So the Phantom let everyone know that he was the Hunter then by posting the arrow and I don't think it far fetched that he very well may have put in an anagram. I think Naria or one of the other wolves picked up on that and voted to kill him.....but I am still not sure.....Phantom did not kill Naria though,

Originally Posted by LMP

The evil team picked the phantom to kill. The good team picked the phantom to be the hunter. Werewolves trying to kill the hunter get killed. So the good team was really lucky.

Ok to me this sounds like Naria picked the Phantom to die last night...but was she the only wolf that voted for him? If so then it goes that she would be the one to die according to LMP's post. But why wouldn't the other wolves vote for Phantom if they saw the arrow? Did they, and Naria was the one chosen to die at random? Maybe she was the only one to see the hint.. I find odd though that the good team was really lucky.......why? because Naria was the only one to vote for him? AAAHHH I am confusing myself, but I see something here.....perhaps all the wolves voted differently and the EW chose to go with Naria's so the Hunter would be killed.Meaning the EW saw the arrow too...

This doesn't clarify much, I know, but I have almost convinced myself that Roa is the EW and if I be wrong this time may I shoot myself in the foot!! I sense it and I will come up with something concrete on her...I'll be back

[JennyHallu]

Val...one more time...

The phantom was not the Hunter until last night.

[Kath]

Valier, one question. Why would the wolves want to kill the Hunter? I don't think that works. For one thing, phantom only became the Hunter last Night, so all these 'clues' from phantom's posts mean nothing. No wolves would go after the Hunter unless they were sure he'd hunt an innocent. The Hunter is only of use when dead.

[Valier]

Ok Ok so what was up with the arrow? I find that odd for the Phantom to just put that in there....Oh well...I thought I had something...I still think I do on the EW choosing Naria's vote so the Hunter would be killed sacraficing a wolf, which I think they did.

[Kath]

Ok Ok so what was up with the arrow?

To show that he was 'shooting off' perhaps? Since that post is all about him not having time to post at that moment.

[Valier]

crossposted ...

So No I think the EW chose to kill The Phantom, by choosing Naria's vote....I think if the wolf votes are spread out the EW gets the final say on who goes do they not?

[Sleepy Ranger]

First off my sincerest apologies for not being very active in this game but random things have kept popping up, bear in mind these have all been un-scheduled disturbances and come Saturday I should be rid of them all. Truly sorry for being a chore.

++Feanor

Possibly because of the previous day.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I have to go and I don't think I'll be back before the end of the day. Because I'm still interested in Roa and I don't have time to ascertain the extent to which any other suspicions of mine are accurate...

++ROA

Edit: crossed with Sleepy.

[Valier]

Originally Posted by Jenny

I think A is a SPM list-member, or one from that basic category: intelligent, trusted, moderate. B I am completely unsure of. But this list does rather put the EW as someone rather brash: Roa, Fea, morm, Diamond...there are probably others capable of trying to pull off a Loki/Nogrod/??A?? combo...

I agree with you wholeheartedly and this is why I think Roa may just be the EW and chose Loki/Nogrod/Naria as wolves. Her post that I quoted earlier had a "plan" for the EW and I think she made it happen Oh too well!

[Gurthang]

Voting so far:

Azaelia - Eomer (Eomer-1)
Nilp - Azaelia (Eomer -1, Azaelia-1)
Celuien - Alcarillo (Eomer-1, Azaelia-1, Alcarillo-1)
Diamond - Azaelia (Eomer-1, Azaelia-2, Alcarillo-1)
spawn - Azaelia (Eomer-1, Azaelia-3, Alcarillo-1)
Thin - Eomer (Eomer-2, Azaelia-3, Alcarillo-1)
Sleepy - Fea (Eomer-2, Azaelia-3, Alcarillo-1, Fea-1)
Fea - Roa (Eomer-2, Azaelia-3, Alcarillo-1, Fea-1, Roa-1)


I just remembered why I had been suspicious of Azaelia in the first place toDay. Her vote just seemed like a vote-for-the-likely-bandwagon-victim vote. I'm gonna glance at Alcarillo really fast.

[Roa_Aoife]

Fea, I seriously don't know what you're going on about- I didn't defend Loki "tooth and nail" and I gave what I consider to be very good reasons for not believing him to be guilty. Again, if you disagree, please give reasons for doing so. Honestly, at least give a decent reason for being interested in me.

As for Valier... what are you talking about? I couldn't have known the phantom was the hunter yesterDay- he wasn't yet. Secondly, I don't think I went overboard in attacking Nogrod at all. He seemed far too guilty to not be a wolf, and I wanted to make sure the village got one. And I'm guilty because I picked up what the EW could end up doing? I alerted the village to a possible plan of the EW. If I was the actual EW, I would never alert you to something everyone had missed, especially if that was my actual plan. Much better to let you ignore it and keep my plans out of sight.

And please, I agree with morm on the whole narration thing. You seem quite eager to get rid of me Valier. Did I catch your fellow and now you want revenge? You'll have to better than that.

[Cailín]

Well, I am back. Catching up right now. I must say Valier's posts dazzle me.

Celuien is looking less suspicious also, mainly because she seemed to give good analysis and reasons for her vote.

I see your point here, Gurthang, but that is exactly what made me a little suspicious of her in the first place. Why would anyone feel the need to come up with such an elaborate case on Day 1?

I'm advertising bad behaviour here, I'm afraid.

The voting seems to be leaning towards Zali currently -I remain doubtful whether she is innocent or not- and Eomer, whom I'd personally hate to see lynched today. I might cry. The out of the blue vote for Fea is somewhat amusing. I wonder what dear Sleepy is up to.

Roa is someone I had not truly considered yet. Yes, she attacked Nogrod with undeniable passion but that is usual for her, is it not? I do agree with Valier that she might be someone to choose the three wolves we know. Interesting, certainly. I do not think her defense of Loki that strange, however, she actually made valid points.

[Valier]

Originally Posted by Roa

And I'm guilty because I picked up what the EW could end up doing? I alerted the village to a possible plan of the EW. If I was the actual EW, I would never alert you to something everyone had missed, especially if that was my actual plan. Much better to let you ignore it and keep my plans out of sight.

Actually Roa I think this is exactly what you would do to cover your EW butt!! I have read about your ancestors as I have mine in the Lore books, and I am sure you are smart, sly and conniving enough to pull it off!

And please, I agree with morm on the whole narration thing. You seem quite eager to get rid of me Valier. Did I catch your fellow and now you want revenge? You'll have to better than that.

I believe I dropped that awhile ago since it did seem unfair for me to use that...and Me? be friends with a wolf? Never!!! That has only happened once in history and I asure you, it is not happening now!

[mormegil]

++Alcarillo

I'm not convinced of Eomer's guilt so I'd like him to be kept around so he can help us out, as I know he can. But Alcarillo I think is most guilty looking to me and has been unhelpful and I feel is hiding being role playing.

Valier you seem more and more to be grasping at straws here. First the narration bit then your continued assertion that the phantom was the hunter at a time when we all know he wasn't. I don't follow it in the least and makes me leary of you too.

[Kath]

Alright it's time for me to vote.

++VALIER

She was determined to find clues in the phantom's posts when there couldn't possibly have been any, and continued on this train of thought even after this had been explained. She has gone almost single-mindedly after Roa, without enough solid reasoning to do so. She has also been very defensive when questioned.

[Celuien]

I'm back. The conference ended earlier than expected.

Originally Posted by Cailín

I see your point here, Gurthang, but that is exactly what made me a little suspicious of her in the first place. Why would anyone feel the need to come up with such an elaborate case on Day 1?

Because it's my personality. I can be competitive and perfectionistic, so if I can make an elaborate case I will.

There's a lot of catching up to do...

[Gurthang]

Well, I need to get gone, so I have to vote now. After reading through Alcarillo's post, he seemed innocent yesterDay, and I can't see enough of a change in him toDay to make me think he was changed last Night. I'm drawn between Diamond and Azaelia.

++Azaelia

I don't think there is enought support yet to lynch Diamond.

Good luck guys.

[Valier]

Valier you seem more and more to be grasping at straws here. First the narration bit then your continued assertion that the phantom was the hunter at a time when we all know he wasn't. I don't follow it in the least and makes me leary of you too.

Originally Posted by Kath

++VALIER

She was determined to find clues in the phantom's posts when there couldn't possibly have been any, and continued on this train of thought even after this had been explained. She has gone almost single-mindedly after Roa, without enough solid reasoning to do so. She has also been very defensive when questioned.

I knew this would happen, but think what you will!! If you check the lore books you will see that I don't have very good skills at reasoning and analysing, but I get a feeling and go with it full steam and it always gets me killed, when the game is over others realize I was innocent and had made the right choices.....so just remember that in the future.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I hope she really didn't say that for I never voted Loki...

Never fear, Lommy. I'm not that off my rocker yet.

Originally Posted by Me, in the above cited post 181

...her sudden switch to voting for Nogrod...

Almost caught up...

[Caranlondien]

I'm still considering my vote: Roa, Diamond, or Zali. The first I don't think I've scrutinized closely enough yet to justify voting for her toDay. And, like Gurthang said, I don't think there's enough support to lynch Diamond toDay. So I will probably be voting for Azaelia.

Really, I don't feel very good about voting for anyone. I felt far more confident about Nogrod's guilt than I do about any of my suspects' toDay.

Voting:

1. Azaelia --> Eomer (Eomer-1)
2. Nilp --> Azaelia (Eomer -1, Azaelia-1)
3. Celuien --> Alcarillo (Eomer-1, Azaelia-1, Alcarillo-1)
4. Diamond --> Azaelia (Eomer-1, Azaelia-2, Alcarillo-1)
5. spawn --> Azaelia (Eomer-1, Azaelia-3, Alcarillo-1)
6. Thin --> Eomer (Eomer-2, Azaelia-3, Alcarillo-1)
7. Sleepy --> Fea (Eomer-2, Azaelia-3, Alcarillo-1, Fea-1)
8. Fea --> Roa (Eomer-2, Azaelia-3, Alcarillo-1, Fea-1, Roa-1)
9. mormegil --> Alcarillo (Eomer-2, Azaelia-3, Alcarillo-2, Fea-1, Roa-1)
10. Kath --> Valier (Eomer-2, Azaelia-3, Alcarillo-2, Fea-1, Roa-1, Valier-1)
11. Gurthang --> Azaelia (Eomer-2, Azaelia-4, Alcarillo-2, Fea-1, Roa-1, Valier-1)

[Valier]

Well since there is no use in waiting to vote....

++Roa_Aoife

For my reasons however weak they may seem and if I be wrong then I will have one less foot, since I promised to shoot it off if I were wrong

[Lalaith]

Cailin, the last couple of times my ancestress found herself nodding in agreement with almost all of the posts of your ancestress, your ancestress was innocent.
I hope the same goes now.
I agree that Roa's family has through the ages a tendency to get passionate in these situations - redheads, you know! - and this can be mistaken for guilt.

My feeling about today is that a lot of the characters getting suspicion cast on them are in fact the usual quiet shady types. Azaelia for example - doesn't this happen to her quite a lot?

Yesterday, as I said, I was feeling uneasy about Celuien and Gurthang. I'm thinking whether to stick with one of those two when it comes to voting. I agree about this wave of unease about Valier though, partly because I think that she'd be a good wolf choice.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I wanted to vote for Lhuna because she was being interrogated on Day One and hasn't shown up since; but Valier's behaviour has been pretty bizarre so I might have to vote for her. Roa? Wow. She was obviously too helpful in catching Nogrod. Well, I'm certainly giving her the benefit of the doubt.

[Valier]

If I were a wolf why on earth would I draw attention to myself with all my weak analysis? I am not that obtuse!! I would never out right accuse someone and try hard to get them looked at if I were a wolf!

[Cailín]

++CELUIEN

Another name. I know. Azaelia was my other candidate, so I would support lynching her as well. But as Lalaith says, Azaelia is rather an expert in drawing unwanted attention (as I am obviously full aware) and therefore I shall go with my more dangerous, more elusive suspect. Let's hope we continue making the right decisions.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Ah, but it was not your intention to draw attention to yourself. Others picked up on what you, perhaps, intended as a useful but 'quiet' little contribution.

[Roa_Aoife]

Valier- your record so far has been less than steller. First, you cast the vote that put Loki (an innocent) in the lead, then you decided the Nogrod wasn't a threat. My lorebook tells me that you are astoudingly off your game. Or perhaps your doing so purposfully. Either way, your instinct has not been trustworthy this game.

Several points:

I don't understand all of the suspicion for Alcarillo. He had a reason to defend himself, as people were suspecting him, and SPM's death made him look quite bad. And while I don't particularly like incharacter posts at this stage of the game, I don't see it making him guilty.

As for Eomer, good points were made against him, but good points were also made by him. His behavior seems too obvious to me, but my lorebook only has one record of an Eomer in a pervious village, and that one didn't live past Day 1.

Zali did seem far too eager to jump on the Eomer bandwagon. However, this could have been due to time constraints forcing her to vote far too early to see any other viable suspect.

Firefoot is the one that really draws my attention. After her strong defense of Nogrod before, and her imediate jump to help morm collect evidence against Eomer, she's looking really bad.

I'm afraid I don't have enough time to do a more thorough analysis right now. I'm going to consider things a bit more and try to get a clearer picture before I vote.

Edit: Crossposted with last five posts

[Valier]

Originally Posted by Roa

Either way, your instinct has not been trustworthy this game.

We shall see my dear Wizard...

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by Valier

We shall see my dear Wizard...

Oh dear. I have never seen Valier this convinced of something. We might have another situation on our hands.

A Roa vs Valier situation, that is.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Cailín, you are so funny.

I have no idea who to vote for. I really hope Azaelia isn't the Seer as I think she won't be back tonight. I'm not the Seer but I'm not about to offer myself as a noble sacrifice yet.

[Kitanna]

Well I've given some thought to all that has happened and I came down to Eomer and Celuien as my top two suspects. Eomer for his cunning ability to double bluff and for Celuien's continued defense of phantom accusations of herself. In the end I simply flipped a coin to decide who to vote for.

++ Celuien

Though I defended her and Diamond to begin with when they brought themselves to everyone's attention, when Celuien continued it and regarded anyone looking at her as a "pointless arguement" I began to suspect her even more.

Oh crude, I need to run so I can't finish my reasoning. Sorry all.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Flipped a coin?!?! I'm beginning to think this relationship was a bad idea.

[Roa_Aoife]

I had completely missed the points about Celuien! I may have to reconsider voting for Firefoot.

And Cailin, there would be a situation if I took Valier's accusations seriously, but I don't. They don't hold water, so there's no point in me continuing to debate her over them. So don't worry.

[Celuien]

The deadline draws near, so there isn't time for my ususl elaborate analysis.

Roa:
174: Defends Loki. Says that the EW will pick unlikely GW choices.
200: Does not suspect Loki. Questions Nogrod’s motives in attacking Loki. Votes for Nogrod.
258: States Loki was believable because no one contradicted his claim and because of his timing. Says Nogrod was the one who caused confusion.
274/277: Analysis of Nogrod.
287: More explanation to Fea about Loki. Asks not to vote randomly.
295: Votes Nogrod for the second time.
324/336: Presses Nogrod about his attack on Loki, more explanation of why she finds him suspicious.
493: More about Loki to Fea. Wants to know what Valier is talking about with her theories. Agrees with morm about the narration thing. Wonders why Valier is so eager to be rid of her.
509: Says that Valier’s record is less than stellar. Doesn’t understand suspicion of Alcarillo.

I see nothing here to suggest to me that Roa is the EW. The cannon-fodder theory non-withstanding, I can't see the EW attacking Nogrod as strongly as Roa did very consistently for two days. While Nogrod was a perfect set-up, he also made a dangerous wolf, and losing him would have been a blow to the evil team.

My suspicion of Alcarillo does stem from what happened to the SPM, along with his overly in-character defensiveness. Granted, there's nothing wrong with talking about village affairs, but as both morm and my late husband pointed out, the wolves do not respect village relationships. Talking only about village happenings and connections to the diminishment of wolf-hunting debate is detrimental to finding the wolves and their foul master. And it gives a way to talk, look friendly, and hide in the open without leaving a trail.

I also agree that the narrations should not be taken as clues. That doesn't seem to be the style of our Great Seal.

And, again, the phantom was not the hunter until last night, so Valier's theories about him can't be right. And I'm puzzled by her attack on Roa, who really does not seem suspicious to me. I'll be keeping an eye on her. Two eyes, in fact, when I can spare them.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I too will have a look at Celuien. I may follow my dear mother and my (apparently not-so-loving) beloved in today's voting. I don't actually feel comfortable voting for Azaelia because it's very easy to get caught up in bandwagons and I don't want to cast what would effectively be a grudge vote.

Back soon!

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

"pointless arguement"

And I forgot to answer this, not that it makes any difference to your vote now. I consider it pointless in that my books of werewolf lore show that villages can be easily caught up in debating incorrect points to the exclusion of others. I absolutely do not want to be the subject of such a debate - all it does is divert attention from our real targets, the EW and its wolves.

And what would the point be? Other than distracting the village and getting a dead innocent if the debate did turn against me, it would accomplish nothing. So yes, pointless.

[Firefoot]

Firefoot is the one that really draws my attention. After her strong defense of Nogrod before, and her imediate jump to help morm collect evidence against Eomer, she's looking really bad.

I'm almost surprised that no one else has commented on this. Not that I'm trying to make myself look bad, but I haven't really been trying to avoid it, either. I jump on theories that make sense and have some backing. Morm's theory did. I'm also pretty stubborn, which is why once I decided yesterDay that Nogrod was innocent, I stuck with it. Take it as you will.

But I'm really on the run right now, so although I had enough time to read through everything, I don't have any time to comment. I'm going to stick with my instinct and go with

++Eomer

[mormegil]

I just realized that we haven't really spoken much about Eonwe. I know we've mentioned Sleepy but Eonwe has the same number of posts, 3, so it's something to keep in mind. I never hold with those that are too quiet if you know what I mean not enough information to go on. I expect to see more of him or I will suspect him of hiding behind silence at least Sleepy has given us reasons.