Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVIII: The Play’s The Thing…

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

I'm sorry, but what are you talking about? You've again confused me. All I've been trying to say is that I think it probable that both you and Glirdan are wolves but possible that only one of you is, and that the other is one of the other three.

Sorry, I missed this.... what I was saying is that you were arguing the obvious, which may or may not be an attempt at seeming useful while still not risking a thing. I would greatly appreciate it if you took at least ONE risk... even if it is going after my neck.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

The more I hear from Aiwendil the more I find myself trusting him. (morm @431)

My opinion of Aiwendil is that he's more innocent today than yesterday and I appreciate SpM's analysis of him however I cannot shake the problematic defense of Eomer and the 'saving votes' I noted earlier. (morm @452)

Knowing morm he wouldn't go after a potentially useful villager on basis of such equivocal evidence. He'd rather go after the two non-voters, perhaps until Kath's strange vote made him change his mind.

Which means Aiwendil was most likely safe from the Hunter. Perhaps (if our assumptions are correct that either Glirdan or Farael is a Werewolf) a wolf-Aiwendil's buddy was in danger of being hunted, but he was safe.

Why this sudden attack on him?

I don't know. It slipped my mind the previous DAY, but Boro's death was an absolute suprise for me. They took the chance to get a true Gifted instead of going for the easy kill. Perhaps they feared that with the tandem still alive, they could declare themselves the next DAY and take the initiative from the Werewolves.

There's some very deep tactical thinking going on inside at least one of our remaining fiends. Unless I'm seriously wrong about Sauce, it points to Aiwendil.

[Formendacil]

After a good eight-hour shift of work, five runny noses, a Tropical Hawaiian pizza, and a chance to browse the thread...

...I am even more convinced that Aiwendil is probably a Werewolf. If not, we are doomed, of course, blah, blah, blah, blah. I, I think, am probably doomed tonight no matter what (although the Werewolves could leave this clueless villager standing and go after SPM or something).

Anyway, why do I think Aiwendil a Werewolf?

Reason the First: He's still alive.

Normally, this is what SPM or Morm would come in for about this point in the game, assuming that one of them was alive, but I think it's merited for Aiwendil as well. He is not, by and large, a player who tends to last far into the game. He's the sort that the Werewolves kill early: because he's cautious and thus leads little trail back to them, but because he's also smart and potentially dangerous.

The fact that Aiwendil is still alive worries me.

But a lot more worrisome to me is Aiwendil's strong interest today in staying alive. Now, none of us want to die, but most accepted Innocents tend to take it in stride as a natural course of events, eventually. A Werewolf, however, because the power of Life and Death is concentrated in his hands, doesn't tend to sacrifice himself or to be willing to die- even if it's really bad for the village.

Quite frankly, Aiwendil has seemed more anxious to hold onto his life than normal- normal for himself or normal for an Innocent. In my opinion, this is rather indicting.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I'm seriously considering voting for Aiwendil, unless something interesting happens in the next few minutes . . .

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

++Aiwendil

You know my reasons.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Farael

My mistake Celuien, but it was out of need to haste than wolfishness... although now that you mention it, exactly how would that comment make me look wolfish? I'm looking forward to hear from you, because now I just feel you are trying to incriminate me.

How? Because if I truly had been the first to bring up the idea that Eomer was gifted, the exchange between us would have most likely been a prearranged ploy. Ignoring the fact that Eomer was the one hinting of giftedness and then using our conversation as a method to deflect suspicion on to me instead of you would be an entirely legitimate thing for a cornered wolf to attempt. Plus, a delibrate misinterpretation of Eomer's past comments is a distraction that takes time away from the current issue of you vs Aiwendil and sends us (well, me at least) back to replying to your error. Another confusion inducing, possible lupine strategy. And that's why I said what I did.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Celuien

If we are correct today, tomorrow starts at Wolves 1, Villagers 3. But then if we're wrong tomorrow, we end the day at villagers 2, wolves 1 and lose that night.

No, that’s wrong. If we are correct today, tomorrow starts at Wolves 1, villagers 4. And, if we are then wrong tomorrow, we end the Day at villagers 3, Wolves 1, with a further Day for the last two innocent villagers to find the remaining Wolf.

Originally Posted by Celuien

So what I'm trying to say is that we're better off making our mistake today. I'd therefore be more comfortable tackling the Aiwendil/Farael issue today and holding off on Glirdy until tomorrow, since that's where I feel the main uncertainty lies.

Perhaps you misstated the position to draw our attention away from Glirdan. Although that would seem unlikely, so I tend to think it was probably an innocent mistake.

I think you are right though that our choice today is probably between either lynching Farael or Aiwendil (because if one is a Wolf, the other is probably not) or lynching Glirdan.

With regard to Farael and Aiwendil, I am rather undecided at the moment. To my mind, Farael’s behaviour throughout has been the more Wolfish. However, his self-vote yesterday still concerns me as it was a very bold move for a Wolf. Also, he said (at #475) that mormegil would have suspected him less than Kath going into last night which, if he is right, suggests that it would have been less risky for a Wolfish Farael to kill mormegil than I had thought. But why would a Wolf point that out about himself? And, while Aiwendil has come across to me as analytical and helpful throughout, I can see how a Wolfish Aiwendil may well have used this approach to try to prod the village in the wrong direction and protect his Wolfish pals. His voting record, when Eomer was under consideration, certainly does not look good.

Of the two, I am beginning to think that Aiwendil might actually be the better choice. Only problem is that, if he is innocent, he is the more useful to have around. Sorry if that sounds harsh, Farael, but you have been causing a lot of confusion, which I don’t regard as having been particularly helpful.

Glirdan, as people have said, is almost impossible to get any kind of a handle on because of his lack of contribution over the last few Days. And, while I accept that he has reasons for that, I can see how it could nevertheless work to the advantage of a Wolf. It has kept him out of serious consideration since the first Day.

One point does occur to me with regard to Glirdan. Do we know at all whether (assuming he is not lynched today) he is likely to be around tomorrow? Because, if we do make a mistake today, we need all of the innocents voting tomorrow. If he is not likely to be here, then he will not be much help to us, even if he is innocent.

[The Saucepan Man]

Looking back at the village noticeboard, I see that Glirdan has said that he will be back tomorrow:

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Well, as you've probably noticed by my deathly scilence, I was away all day and did not get a chance to post. Once again, I will not be able to post until this weekend because I will be busy all day Wednsday-Friday. I may ba able to post tomorrow. Sorry!!

Can he be relied upon? We should be able to trust what is said on the noticeboard, so I do accept this at face value. But if he is innocent, and we do not lynch him today, we really need him to turn up tomorrow.

[Aiwendil]

Formendacil wrote:

Quite frankly, Aiwendil has seemed more anxious to hold onto his life than normal- normal for himself or normal for an Innocent. In my opinion, this is rather indicting.

That's because lynching an innocent at this point would be fairly disastrous. As for why I'm still alive - apparently the wolves have been busy killing our Gifteds lately. Moreover, I'm (obviously) now under quite a bit of suspicion.

I become more and more convinced that Farael is a wolf. Glirdan still concerns me, but I see less concrete evidence there. So I will probably vote for Farael, unless something changes.

[The Saucepan Man]

Actually, thinking it through, if Glirdan is a Wolf and does not turn up, then that will be one Wolf vote less, so his attendance is not quite as necessary as I had thought.

On that basis, I am likely to vote for either Farael or Aiwendil today, and I am seriously leaning towards Aiwendil at the moment. Unless Farael is being very devious, that reference to himself being lower in morm's suspicions than Kath looks very much like the sort of thing a hapless innocent might say.

I am, however, rather hoping to hear a bit more from others before I have to vote.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

No, that’s wrong. If we are correct today, tomorrow starts at Wolves 1, villagers 4. And, if we are then wrong tomorrow, we end the Day at villagers 3, Wolves 1, with a further Day for the last two innocent villagers to find the remaining Wolf.

Okay. My mistake. *pulls out kindergarten learn to count book*

Honestly, I'm somewhat uneasy about voting Aiwendil today since Farael does look far more suspicious to me. If Farael is a wolf, he has been playing a fairly bold game all along, and the Kath ranking comment would be consistent with his strategy as a wolf.

I see your point about Aiwendil, however, being in a very, very good position to cover any wolvish tracks. And if I force myself to put aside my being taken in my Eomer, he doesn't look good in light of his voting record there. Aiwendil's consistent caution would be what I would expect of a wolf, somewhat more than Farael's boldness. At the same time, Eomer was a very bold wolf, and I suppose they could both have been playing a bold game, thinking that we wouldn't suspect a double team of bold wolves.

So thinking about it, I suppose Farael and Aiwendil objectively look about equally wolvish to me. Subjectively, I'm leaning toward Farael.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Celuien

Honestly, I'm somewhat uneasy about voting Aiwendil today since Farael does look far more suspicious to me.

I am somewhat uneasy about voting for either of them as, while I am sure that one of them is a Wolf, I am in a quandry as to which one.

Originally Posted by Celuien

Farael is a wolf, he has been playing a fairly bold game all along, and the Kath ranking comment would be consistent with his strategy as a wolf.

True, but it really doesn't come across that way to me at all. I read it more as naive than duplicitous.

In these types of situations (rightly or wrongly), I tend to fall back on the voting record.

Aiwendil has voted for known innocents on every Day, with the exception of yesterday when he voted for Farael. Farael has either voted for Aiwendil or not voted every Day, with the exception of yesterday when he voted for himself. In some ways, Farael's voting pattern is the less bold, because he has never been caught voting for a known innocent.

On Day 3, Aiwendil voted for Garin to put him level on two votes with Eomer. Garin was lynched and found to be innocent. Eomer, as we know, was a Wolf.

On Day 4, Aiwendil voted for tar-ancalime to put her level with Eomer on three votes. Eomer was lynched and found to be a Wolf. Tar-ancalime, as we know was innocent.

Farael did not vote on either Day. I would have expected a Wolf to vote when his fellow Wolf was in danger, unless he thought he was beyond saving. Clearly, that was not the case on Day 3 as Eomer survived. On Day 4, Farael strongly indicated that he was likely to vote for Eomer, but did not turn up to vote.

Both of their voting patterns look suspicious. But Aiwendil's the more so, I think.

[Celuien]

Okay SPM. You've convinced me.

Since I might not be able to come back before the deadline, I'll add my vote to Nilp's.

++AIWENDIL

If he turns out to be innocent, please, let's get Wolfarael tomorrow.

[The Saucepan Man]

I too must cast my vote now, as I don’t know whether I will have a chance to return again today.

Originally Posted by Nilp

There's some very deep tactical thinking going on inside at least one of our remaining fiends.

That certainly makes sense to me, although I would not put that kind of thinking past most of those still here, yourself included, Nilp. Nevertheless, it does tend to point more towards Aiwendil than Farael.

And it tends to support the general way my thoughts have been going today, so I will vote:

++ AIWENDIL

Originally Posted by Celuien

If he turns out to be innocent, please, let's get Wolfarael tomorrow.

While I do not think it automatically follows that, if Aiwendil is innocent, Farael must be a Wolf, I agree that he will be looking the most likely candidate.

[Aiwendil]

While I do not think it automatically follows that, if Aiwendil is innocent, Farael must be a Wolf, I agree that he will be looking the most likely candidate.

Hear, hear! I'm sorry to see that we'll be wasting the DAY lynching an innocent, but I hope my death will at least serve some good. When you find that I'm innocent, you can lynch the real wolf - Farael. Don't let my death be in vain.

[Farael]

I am put now in a situation in which any thing that happens, it will look bad on me. That last comment by Aiwendil gives me pause, as why would a wolf that is soon to be lynched say it?

Well, maybe to give second-thoughts to those yet to vote... and in any case, not voting for him would be seen as suspicious anyhow

++Aiwendil

If he turns out to be innocent, I'd suggest looking at SPM.... I'm starting to get the feeling we've been had. Of course, it does not matter, you will most likely lynch me anyhow.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Farael

If he turns out to be innocent, I'd suggest looking at SPM.... I'm starting to get the feeling we've been had. Of course, it does not matter, you will most likely lynch me anyhow.

I begin to wonder that as well.... although about Nilp.

No, good Nilpadaga, I don't REALLY think you guilty. But if we miss our wolf yet again, then I'm thinking we REALLY need to change our strategy- and you've come down quite hard on Aiwendil- and I know you are bold enough to vote for Eomer if you are a Wolf.

I don't think that... yet. But if, by some chance, Aiwendil IS innocent, then you'd be my next place to look- not Farael.

[Formendacil]

The deadline draws near, and so I must vote:

++Aiwendil

And now, soon comes the night. I go to sleep, perchance to dream. I shall consider myself lucky if I last the night.

[AbercrombieOfRohan]

You know the drill. Stop posting now. I'll have the death up as soon as I can.

[AbercrombieOfRohan]

(The village center after a day of confusion and uncertainty.)

Saucepan Man: To lynch Aiwendil or Farael, that is the question.
Celuien: We should go with Farael...I think, perhaps. Or not.
Farael: Are you finally going to listen to me? I've been telling you since Day 1 that Aiwendil's a wolf.

(Village cautiously banters about who would make the better lynching candidate. Ad lib.)

Aiwendil: I swear to you I've been a faithful cook. I never once baked anyone in a pie or anything!
Nilpaurion Felagund: It comes to this, I must vote now and Aiwendil seems more likely. Good-bye, Aiwendil.
Village: (hesitatingly) ok...
Formendacil: Now how do we get rid of him?

(Gestures are made such as nail-biting and nervously twisting.)

Glirdan: Well, we could use the stake.

(Village captures Aiwendil and drags him to the woodpile where a stake is erected, for just such an emergency.)

(Aiwendil screams in protest. The village ignores him and continues with their deed.)

(Village stands back and someone drops a match onto the pyre. As it goes up in flames a terrible roar is heard.)

Saucepan Man: Can anyone smell that?
Farael: Yes! Yes, I can! It smells like burning wolf hair! Success!

The village had caught another wolf.

Living:
Saucepan Man
Farael
Glirdan
Formendacil
Nilpaurion Felagund
Celuien

Dead:
Shelob (Mod)--Killed by wolves on NIGHT 1
Abercrombie (Mod)--Killed while Yeti-Spotting on NIGHT 1
Gil-Galad (Ordinary)--Lynched at the close of DAY 1
Holbytlass (True Seer)--Gloucester-ized and welled on NIGHT 2
Lhunardawen (Ordinary)--Drown’d a muddy death upon DAY 2
Anguirel (Ordinary)--Killed quite safely during NIGHT 3
Littlemanpoet (Ordinary)--Vanished during DAY 3
Garin (Ordinary)--Lynched at the end of an eventful DAY 3
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant (Ordinary)--Thus was the shepherd beaten from their side during NIGHT 4
Eomer of the Rohirrim (Werewolf)--Died without a friend, but plenty of fiends DAY 4.
Boromir88 (Ranger)--Like Corey, burried under the contents of a Quarry during NIGHT 5
Tar-Ancalime (Ordinary)--Made an Ex-ex-leper at the end of DAY 5
Kath (Ordinary)--Killed by the Hunter during NIGHT 6
Mormegil (Hunter)--Stabbed in the back by wolves during NIGHT 6
Aiwendil (Werewolf)--burned at the stake at the end of DAY 6

[Shelob]

(The villagers began their days, as they had not in the past week, by looking at their calendars, given the excitement this past week most of them had quite forgotten to change the calendars from the past month to the current one. Having noticed this some few of them switched their calendars now, though even fewer made any note of the months involved. Shortly thereafter they met again in the village square, where they’re met by a rather cut up and bloody corpse.)

Celuien: Formendacil!
Nilp: What did the wolves do to him? What could make such fine and tiny cuts?
Glirdan: (having picked up a bloodied piece of paper from the ground near Form) Perhaps they used this? It certainly gave someone a papercut or two.
Farael: (taking the paper from Glirdan) It looks like it’s from a calendar, wait…there’s something written here, scrawled really. It looks like “He said ‘beware the sides of March’, I didn’t think they were dangerous. I was wrong.”

(There’s a moment while all they absorb the implications of this.)

Saucepan Man: Well, it looks like there’s only one thing we can do.


-----
Living:
Saucepan Man
Farael
Glirdan
Nilpaurion Felagund
Celuien

Dead:
Shelob (Mod)--Killed by wolves on NIGHT 1
Abercrombie (Mod)--Killed while Yeti-Spotting on NIGHT 1
Gil-Galad (Ordinary)--Lynched at the close of DAY 1
Holbytlass (True Seer)--Gloucester-ized and welled on NIGHT 2
Lhunardawen (Ordinary)--Drown’d a muddy death upon DAY 2
Anguirel (Ordinary)--Killed quite safely during NIGHT 3
Littlemanpoet (Ordinary)--Vanished during DAY 3
Garin (Ordinary)--Lynched at the end of an eventful DAY 3
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant (Ordinary)--Thus was the shepherd beaten from their side during NIGHT 4
Eomer of the Rohirrim (Werewolf)--Died without a friend, but plenty of fiends DAY 4.
Boromir88 (Ranger)--Like Corey, burried under the contents of a Quarry during NIGHT 5
Tar-Ancalime (Ordinary)--Made an Ex-ex-leper at the end of DAY 5
Kath (Ordinary)--Killed by the Hunter during NIGHT 6
Mormegil (Hunter)-- )--Stabbed in the back by wolves during NIGHT 6
Aiwendil (Werewolf)--Burned at the stake at the end of DAY 6
Formendacil (False Seer/Fool)--Done to death by numerous papercuts during NIGHT 7

You know the drill, have at it.

[Celuien]

I'm glad I didn't go with my subjective suspicions yesterday. My apologies to you Farael, both for suspecting you yesterday, and for not listening to your identification of Aiwendil eariler.

Aiwendil's guilt confirms both SPM's and Nilp's innocence for me.

So does anyone see a reason not to vote for Glirdan now?

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Celuien

So does anyone see a reason not to vote for Glirdan now?

How about the fact that you were suspiciously associated with Aiwolfdil, voting the same as him to save your buddy Eomer... and for most of yesterDay, went after me?

If it wasnt' for your voting record, I'd think you mostly innocent as I can see why you'd suspect me but... voting record does not exactly shed a good light on you and... why so hasty to vote for Glirdan? trying to make up our collective minds before the silent one gets to talk?

Oh, and SPM... don't worry about implying that Aiwendil is smarter than me... I can see where you went wrong after all, I'm still alive and you all have to admit that I was right... I should start printing t-shirts saying "Farael Was Right" (see Simpsons, episode of the martian/Mr. Burns)

Anyway, I actually see Celuien pretty suspicious today... right now, we can actually afford to meassure our time, let's go through the people who are still alive.

Living:
Saucepan Man: Aiwendil is a wolf. If he hadn't been, I would have been congratulating Saucepan Wolf over a well played game (And not expecting anyone to believe me) but I can put those crazy suspicions to rest now, given that he is most likely innocent... heck, he IS innocent.
Farael: That's me
Glirdan: Has been very silent, let's give the guy a chance to talk.
Nilpaurion Felagund: Timezones might affect him, but he's on the same boat as SPM... if Aiwendil was innocent then I would have gone after SPM and Nilp, but right now it doesn't seem the case.
Celuien: Voting record looks pretty bad, her mistake with Eomer looks suspicious at least for me. On her favour I should note that she was the second to vote for Aiwolfdil... on a day that the first person to reach three votes would have been lynched barring a Glirdan comeback. Hmmm now I'm hesitating.

Anyway, I hope I'm not commiting the cardinal sin of assuming too much, but I'd think that we have three 'known' innocent right now, SPM, Nilp and myself. That leaves Celuien and Glirdan as the most likely to be wolvish... I'm going to look back and into Celuien's words yesterDay while waiting for Glirdan to show up... I think a no-show by Glirdan should be reason enough to take him to the gallows.... but if not, I'd say Celuien is my prime suspect for now. Yet I'm not as convinced as I'd like to be

[Glirdan]

RL Comment - While all of you were busy talking about my scilence, my band is advancing to the nationals. Now you see that I had perfectly good reason to not be here.

I see that the suspicions of me will not let up. Frankly I am quite annoyed with the fact that I said that I will not be able to post as much as I normally do, and you still get suspicous of it! You know what, if you want proof that I'm innocent, lynch me! I was actually going to start participating more but from the looks of things, a lot of people would rather I just be dead. Fine, do it! But I'm going to say that it would be a complete waste of a day. If you need me, I'll be practicing for my other competitions.

[Farael]

Oh boy, wrong move... it's the third time someone says lynch me so far

Anyway, given that I said it I can't really turn Glirdan's last comment so that it'll look suspicious without being a hipocrite.... master Glirdan, I'd recomend you think twice and come back... I think we would all like to hear from you, and you have to remember, we were grasping at straws yesterDay...

[Celuien]

Well, if you really feel the need to suspect me, be my guest. I wouldn't expect you to do anything else, really, given my strong suspicions of you yesterday and my dismal record of picking wolves.

Anyway, I'm convinced that the last wolf is Glirdan by process of elimination, since I know it's not me and I'm pretty confident that it's not SPM, Nilp, or Farael after yesterday's events.

I won't vote yet though. Just want to see what everyone has to say first.

[Glirdan]

Oh, I'm not going anywhere. And another thing I'm telling you, I shall be looking at all the post for TODAY. Not yesterDay or the Day before that, TODAY. Reason being that I do not have time to go back and see what's been going on (RL problems[need to get caught up in homework]).

So does anyone see a reason not to vote for Glirdan now

And here comes a rant and venting on all of you.

Like I said, you want to lynch me, be my guest. I'm over this. All of you (who are alive) with the exception of SpM are after me due to my scilence. Is it my fault that I'm a professional musician and that I get called out of town wether it be on short term notice or pre-arranged?? Is it?? How many times have I specifically said that I will be away for the last three days??? Yet you still suspect me!! I'm over trying to explain myself!!

Ok, rant over.

Now, I have to disagree with what you just said Farael:

If it wasnt' for your voting record, I'd think you mostly innocent as I can see why you'd suspect me but... voting record does not exactly shed a good light on you and... why so hasty to vote for Glirdan? trying to make up our collective minds before the silent one gets to talk?

If she were the last Wolf, she'd be smart enough to keep me around to keep the suspicions on me. That's what I've noticed. The only reason I'm still around is because SpM and a few others have spoken in my defense and the Wolves have realised that if I'm still around, I'd get all the suspicions. And I must say that so far, it's come true.

Glirdan: Has been very silent, let's give the guy a chance to talk

I'm thankful you said that, but it doesn't take off the anger.

I think a no-show by Glirdan should be reason enough to take him to the gallows

But now you kind of contradict yourself. You say I should be given the chance to talk yet if I don't show, lynch me (which I should have done by the looks of things).

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

(to Aiwendil) And that was for the Shepherdess!

This last Wolf's head will be for my sister the Princess. Speaking of . . . hey, shrillboy Glirdan

RL Comment - While all of you were busy talking about my scilence, my band is advancing to the nationals. Now you see that I had perfectly good reason to not be here.

I see that the suspicions of me will not let up. Frankly I am quite annoyed with the fact that I said that I will not be able to post as much as I normally do, and you still get suspicous of it! You know what, if you want proof that I'm innocent, lynch me! I was actually going to start participating more but from the looks of things, a lot of people would rather I just be dead. Fine, do it! But I'm going to say that it would be a complete waste of a day. If you need me, I'll be practicing for my other competitions. (Glirdan)

Like I said, you want to lynch me, be my guest. I'm over this. All of you (who are alive) with the exception of SpM are after me due to my scilence. (Glirdan)

I'm suspicious of you only because there is no-one else to be suspicious of. I'm innocent. I think Farael is, because during DAY 5 Aiwendil's vote for him put him in the lead with six more voters left--an unnecessary risk for a Werewolf. I think Sauce is innocent because of his DAY 4/DAY 6 voting trend. I think Celuien is innocent because she was the second one to vote for Aiwendil.

That leaves you.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I expect more from you than this shrill defence of yourself.

We need thoughts. Views about the remaining villagers not stemming from anger over the accusations hurled against you.

Got it?

[Farael]

Glirdan, you remind me of a comment that SPM made about me

You seem to want to argue your way up into my suspicion list (or something along those lines)

To begin with, let's face it... Celuien is accusing you because she can't accuse anyone else. She could go after me I guess as my innocence is not as established, but given yesterday's happenings and the fact that you are more suspicious, you are an easy choice.

Now, I wonder, why would you react like you did? we all know that those who are silent are most likely to be suspected... you were silent, even if you had proper excuses, and so you are suspected. We had nothing to go on with, barely any voting record, no talk on both of the days we lynched a wolf. Don't you think that we AT LEAST have grounds to feel uneasy about you?

And about my 'apparent' contradiction, I said both that we should give you a chance to talk... and that if you didn't show up we should get rid of you. I Think we are all aware that you were coming back toDay and thus if you were still away it might have been a smart wolvish move to let us wonder about you without giving us anything to work with. Where's the contradiction?

Now that we have given you a (short so far) chance to talk, I must say I think you should have stayed silent, then perhaps we would have had second-thoughts on that matter.

And you know, something that had somehow slipped my mind until Nilp brought it up... Celuien was the second one to vote for Aiwolfdil.... which meant that one more vote would have meant Aiwen's lynching.... and I was yet to cast my vote. A wolvish Celuien should have known that I was innocent and thus all but certain to vote for Aiwendil.

If you can explain all that, I might consider not voting for you. If you go on another rant, accuse us all of not having a life outside werewolf and storm out to practice for your band... well, good luck with your band!

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

We're here to find Werewolves, not attack each other with knives, fishing equipment, and musical instruments.

Now that you brought this up:

And you know, something that had somehow slipped my mind until Nilp brought it up... Celuien was the second one to vote for Aiwolfdil.... which meant that one more vote would have meant Aiwen's lynching.... and I was yet to cast my vote. A wolvish Celuien should have known that I was innocent and thus all but certain to vote for Aiwendil. (Farael)

I'm quite confused.

Glirdan goes on a very loud defence of himself. Understandable, but distracting.

Farael suddenly shifts his gunsight on Celuien--for a plausible reason, I must admit. It's something an innocent earnest in his search for a Werewolf would do. It is also something a Werewolf would do to sow confusion.

This DAY is no longer as clear-cut as I thought.

I shall be reviewing everything about the remaining villagers again. Be back with thoughts.

[Farael]

Where did I shift my gunsight on Celuien? no, I was misunderstood..... I said that she voted for Aiwendil second and given that I'd vote for him too she all but sealed his death. If she had voted me and Aiwendil joined her, it would have been up to SPM to choose the right person to vote for. Risky, but he might have voted me.

I meant to say that Celuien did NOT look guilty while Glirdan did very little to help his case

I also didn't mean to come out too strongly against Glirdan, if I did do ignore it... I guess at times I'm not good with connotations.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I misunderstood you.

But you had insufficient facts. I had voted for Aiwendil already. Formendacil said he will (cf. #458, 483). Then there's you and your consistent attack on him since DAY 1.

Three votes. He's doomed even before the votes were cast.

Someone might have joined in to look innocent.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

I misunderstood you.

But you had insufficient facts. I had voted for Aiwendil already. Formendacil said he will (cf. #458, 483). Then there's you and your consistent attack on him since DAY 1.

Three votes. He's doomed even before the votes were cast.

Someone might have joined in to look innocent.

I shouldn't post after midnight... but still, there was a slight chance that I'd accumulate three votes more rapidly... but then, you have a good point, the best bet would have been to vote for Aiwendil.

OK, we are back on the starting line but I'm off to be.... *ahem* do alchemy... d

[The Saucepan Man]

Well I, for one, am not taking anything for granted. It is, I suppose, fair to say that Glirdan looks the most suspicious, given his silence and in light of the fact that he is the only villager not to have voted for a Wolf. But he has good reason for his silence over the past few Days. I have a feeling that, if he were guilty, then he would not have turned up today as that only makes him look more suspicious. But if he is not guilty, then the remaining Wolf has voted for a fellow Wolf at least once, which is going to make it difficult to find him or her. In short, I think we need to think carefully before rushing to lynch Glirdan. It may well be that he is the last Wolf, but I would rather consider the remaining possibilities first.

In the meantime, here is yesterday's voting record. Although it probably won't tell us much as everyone voted for a Wolf, excpet Aiwendil (the Wolf in question) and Glirdan, neither of whom voted.

Voting:

1. Nilpaurion Felagund for Aiwendil (Aiwendil-1)
2. Celuien for Aiwendil (Aiwendil-2)
3. The Saucepan Man for Aiwendil (Aiwendil-3)
4. Farael for Aiwendil (Aiwendil-4)
5. Formendacil for Aiwendil (Aiwendil-5)

Did not vote: Aiwendil, Glirdan

Back shortly with some more thoughts.

[The Saucepan Man]

Here are my thoughts on those that remain.

Farael: If Farael is a Wolf, then he and Aiwendil have been playing a very bold game. That said, it is not beyond the realms of possibility that they were. It kept both him and Aiwendil from serious suspicion for the first few Days. Farael, because it was thought unlikely that a Wolf would come out so strongly against a single villager. And Aiwendil, because Farael's case was, at first at least, quite weak and easily answered by Aiwendil. Having gone strongly against Aiwendil at the beginning, he did, as I recall, rather back off when Aiwendil began to come under serious suspicion. I will have to look back and check the timing of this, but I think that it was on Day 4, when Eomer was lynched, that he declared that he did not suspect Aiwendil as much as his behaviour had indicated. He then said that Eomer was his main suspect, although somewhat ambiguously, but ended up not voting. The next Day, when Aiwendil remained under suspicion (particuarly from mormegil), he voted for himself. It was only yesterday, when Aiwendil was all but doomed, that Farael voted to seal his fate. In short, he is not cleared of suspicion in my mind, although if he is a Wolf, his strategy has been a very risky (albeit effective) one.

Celuien: If Celuien is a Wolf, then she is a brilliant actress. It is, however, possible that she picked up on Eomer's Ranger hints at the end of Day 4 and played along with it to either get tar-anclaime lynched in his place or, at the very least, make herself look more innocent. Yesterday, she started off more sympathetic towards Aiwendil than Farael yet, when it became clear (from what Nilp, Form and I had said) that Aiwendil was likely to be lynched, she was (rather easily, it seems to me) persuaded to vote for Aiwendil. Perhaps a ploy to make herself look innocent for the remainder of the game. Again, therefore, Celuien is not in the clear as far as I am concerned and in fact looks a more probable Wolf than Farael.

Nilpaurion Felagund: Well, if Nilp is a Wolf, he has voted twice for a fellow Wolf. And, in each case, he has voted first, which would have been an unnecessaily risky thing to do. That said, it is possible that, on each Day, he put in a Wolf-on-Wolf vote in the hope that village opinion would move away from the Wolf he had voted for. And, even if it did not, he would end up looking innocent, which indeed he has. However, while one Wolf-on-Wolf vote in these circumstances is plausible, two looks rather foolhardy.

Glirdan: As I said earlier, the only villager not to have voted for a Wolf. His main contribution has been to vote first for two innocents, both of whom were lynched on the Day he voted for them. Perhaps he was picking on likely candidates and attempting to start off bandwaggons. Other than his withdrawn vote for lmp (another likely candidate for lynching before he disappeared), he has not voted since. His silence over the last few Days, followed by his sudden reappearance today might also be regarded as suspicious. But I rather think that it is unlikely behaviour for a Wolf, precisely because it looks so suspicious. Nevertheless, he remains the most likely Wolf out of those remaining.

In summary, I think it most unlikely that Nilp is a Wolf. I can see a case for either Farael or Celuien being a Wolf. And Glirdan is currently the most Wolfish looking of all. Which gives me some doubt as to whether he is in fact a Wolf. Right now, I am almost more inclined to vote for Celuien or Farael than Glirdan.

[Celuien]

Again, therefore, Celuien is not in the clear as far as I am concerned and in fact looks a more probable Wolf than Farael.
....
In summary, I think it most unlikely that Nilp is a Wolf. I can see a case for either Farael or Celuien being a Wolf. And Glirdan is currently the most Wolfish looking of all. Which gives me some doubt as to whether he is in fact a Wolf. Right now, I am almost more inclined to vote for Celuien or Farael than Glirdan.

Well, I'm not. I voted for Aiwendil because I suspected him, though, grantedly, less than Farael at the time due to intuition. Since my intuition has invariably led me astray for the past few days, I let myself be persuaded, ignored the anti-Farael feeling, and voted Aiwendil. I'm glad I did, since I don't think Farael is a wolf now. Not after his loud accusations of Aiwendil. Though this could have been a bold set up from the beginning, somehow, I doubt it.

Farael's shifting suspicion to me is understandable. After all, you suspect me too, SPM, and I wasn't trying to get you lynched yesterday.

Anyway, if you really, really want to lynch me, go ahead. The village will still win tomorrow when you find out I'm not a wolf. Just take down Gaur-dan for me then. I'd rather be alive to see our victory, but such is life in Werewolf.

I have to go. So:

++GLIRDAN THE WOLF, FOUL FIEND OF SAURON

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, that was a rather dramatic vote!

I find it of some concern that Celuien has voted so early for Glirdan, without us having had much of an opportunity to discuss the other possibilities. Granted, she may well have good reason for having to vote early, but Glirdan is an obvious vote for a Wolf given how suspicious he is looking, and an early vote for him might be seen as a way of trying to ensure that he gets enough votes to condemn him.

I am beginning to suspect that Celuien may be our final, very clever, Wolf.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

460: Says that among Glirdan, Farael, and Aiwendil she's least suspicious of Aiwendil. Could be convinced to change her vote, though.

464: Thinks that it's a 100% that there is a Werewolf between Farael and Aiwendil. Still thinks Aiwendil is more innocent. Farael, she says, 'looks even odder after his self-vote . . .'

Thinks that Glirdan might be the best choice for that DAY, given the uncertainty between Aiwendil and Farael.

(I don't know; if we had lynched Farael then, we might have found out that he was innocent, and then got Aiwendil. Glirdan was a safe choice for both Werewolves then.)

468: Finds it hard to suspect Aiwendil because he thinks her innocent.

(Hmmm . . . )

Goes back to Aimè's suspicion list (Farael, Celuien, Nilpaurion). Thinks that he might have hidden a Werewolf among his choices. Says it brings her back to Farael.

Thinks that Farael or Glirdan could have discovered morm's secret profession, too.

474: Says she's more comfortable dealing with the Aiwendil/Farael issue now.

(I wonder why the . . . flip-flop.)

477: Defends self against Farael's accusation that she brought up Aimè's giftedness. Thinks it's making Farael look more Werewolvish.

486: Thinks that Farael is try to put suspicion on her with her earlier accusation.

491: Thinks Farael looks far more suspicious than Aiwendil. However, she sees the point in Sauce's post 487 about Aiwendil subtly prodding the village in the wrong direction.

493: Convinced by Sauce and votes for Aiwendil.

The froggie looks quite suspicious now.

[The Saucepan Man]

Thanks for that analysis, Nilp, which expands on my thoughts earlier concerning Celuien. I agree that there is a distinct possibility that she was hoping to protect Aiwendil but that, when she realised that the cause was hopeless, she abandoned him.

I have been looking back at Aiwendil's analyses of Glirdan and Celuien on Day 5. The links are here:

Glirdan

Celuien

His conclusions were as follows:

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

Conclusion: He [Glirdan] doesn't look incredibly suspicious to me, but he's certainly worrying me. His votes have all been for innocents who died that DAY. Too obvious for a wolf? Maybe. But somehow he's avoided much suspicion for most of the game.

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

So I'm inclined to think Celuien is probably innocent, at the moment, if only for that reason.

So Aiwendil stated that he viewed neither as particularly suspicious, but said that Celuien was the more likely to be innocent. Would he say that about a fellow Wolf in circumstances where he might himself be revealed (as he was under suspicion that Day)? Morevoer, it is difficult to conclude much from what he says as my own analyses of them reached much the same conclusion as his. Aiwendil continued to state that he thought Celuien most likely innocent yesterday. His main (stated) suspects were Farael and Glirdan. Which leads me wonder whether our Wolf may be one of those two.

Interestingly, Aiwendil voted for Farael on Day 5 to put him ahead of Glirdan and tar-anacalime. Risky if they were both Wolves, but it would have stood to his credit had Farael been lynched and shown to be a Wolf.

This is most certainly a difficult dilemma. If Farael is a Wolf, then he almost deserves to win for his brilliant interplay with Aiwendil. I am hesitant about voting for Glirdan as I think that his pattern of behaviour (silence followed by his sudden appearance today) is just too suspicious for a Wolf. So I am leaning towards Celuien at the moment. But, again, I am hesitant because of Aiwendil's defence of her over the last two Days.

Good grief! It feels like we are almost back to square one. Still, I feel that we have a one in three chance of catching the Wolf today. And, if we are wrong, we will most likely have a one in two chance tomorrow.

I am, however, doubtful of my chances of still being here tomorrow if we do get it wrong, so I would rather like to catch the last Wolf today ...