WW CVI: Tol-in-Westeros Game Thread

[Nogrod]

Sally started cobblerism already...

[Aganzir]

Night gathers and your sleep begins.

You have lynched Kitanna, plain ordinary illiterate Kitanna. How unjust.

Narration is pouncing towards you.

[Aganzir]

"We've definitely got one of them!" Nogrod shouted. "Those disgusting lovers under this roof, they're probably the reason for all these murders with their bizarre relationship!"

”Take your filthy and unnatural love elsewhere!” cried Lommy.

”Is loving a crime, though?” sally mused. ”What bad could result from two human beings caring for each other?”

”Emphasis on 'human',” said Lottie.

”Guys, I am actually single,” Kitanna interrupted, but nobody listened to her.

"We need to get rid of this abomination." Eönwë cried. "Maybe if we take her down, we'll rid ourselves of her foul partner as well!"

"Erm, guys, I don't have a partner." Kitanna tried again.

"Yeah!" Green joined in. "And if we do that, maybe some of these violent murders will stop!"

"People, I am not in a relationship!" Kitanna shouted.

”What's that thing between us then?” sally asked, mock-affronted.

”What are you talking about?” asked Kitanna.

Meanwhile, Encai was pulling the wagon the musicians had carried their instruments in towards the group standing in the tavern. It clinked and clattered as it went, still full of flutes and drums and guitars and bagpipes and horns and other noisy objects.

”Could somebody give me a hand?” she cried.

"Of course!" answered Green.

"I will!" said Cop.

"Sure Encai!" agreed Wyth.

"No problem," said Inzil.

Many voices joined the chorus, none entirely sure what they were being asked to do, but all keen to be involved. Dragging the heavy wagon along behind them, the patrons managed to get it up to quite a speed as it headed into the inn towards Kitanna, who stood directly in its path. She was surrounded by heavy tables and benches, and there was nowhere to run to avoid the madly musical thing now hurtling towards her at full speed.

”Oh no, it's a bandwagon!” she gasped the moment before it squeezed her to death against the wall.

Kitanna showed no signs of changing, and nobody went into hysterics over her corpse. The patrons were forced to conclude that they had been wrong.

Dead:
Agan, moddess - slaughtered by lions on Night 1
Kath, moddess - mauled by bear on Night 1
skip spence, ordo - tasted the axe on Day 1
wilwarin538, Three-Eyed Raven - eaten by bear on Night 2
Galadriel55, ordo - murdered by lions on Night 2
Macalaure - Lannister lion - stabbed through on Day 2
Nerwen – ordo – interrupted by bear on Night 3
Volo – ordo – ripped apart by lions on Night 3
Kitanna, ordo - died under a bandwagon on Day 3

Alive:
Eönwë - house Royce
Inziladun - house Tully
Encaitare - random peasant
Thinlómien - house (Stannis) Baratheon
Boromir88 - house Bolton
Loslote - illiterate Tyrell cousin
A Little Green - house Reed
WythDryden/Lote22 - house Martell
Eomer of the Rohirrim - house Stark
Rikae - house Tarth
Coppermirror - crazy Northern hermit
Nogrod - house Swann
Gil-Galad - First Baker of Braavos
satansaloser2005 - random peasant

It is now Night 4.

[Aganzir]

Coppermirror woke up in the middle of the night when somebody tapped politely on her door.

“Who is it?” she asked in a quavering voice, fearing the worst.

“Room service,” a rumbling voice called.

“Oh, okay,” Cop said and opened the door.
It was the Bear.

“Wait...? Where's the food?” Cop asked.

“Standing in front of me,” the Bear said.

Confused, Cop looked behind her. "But there's no one else here ... oh." Her face only had time to look crestfallen for a few fleeting seconds, before it was eagerly chewed off by the exasperated bear.

**

Meanwhile, the lions were busy. Chuckling, they leaped up the stairs, past the odd lump that was either sally or sally's straw-stuffed clothes and that was mourning over Kitanna's corpse (completely innocently, of course).

Not long after, they bounced back down carrying a squirming body. Throwing the body down on the ground in the kitchen, they stepped back to let it up.

"What? What's going on?" A trembling Gil asked.

"Why, it's time for breakfast!" The golden wolf replied cheerfully. "And as you are our resident baker, we thought you could do the honours."

"You want me to cook breakfast for you?" Gil queried. "That's it?"

Looking as if butter wouldn't melt in their mouths, the wolves smiled down at him. "Oh yes," they said, "that's it."

"Well, alright then." And Gil got to work.

He spent the better part of the night baking a beautiful, flaky pie crust, but when he reached for the mince, the silver lion stopped him.

“Oh no,” she said, smirking, “there's no need for that!”

“No offense, but I think I know best how to make a good pie,” answered Gil.

“We are sure you do,” grinned the golden lion.

“You'll make a good pie,” said the other.

*

In the morning, the patrons woke up to a lovely smell drifting upstairs. Hungry, they rushed to the tavern, and found a steaming hot pie on the table. There was a note:

Gil-Galad wishes you a good morning!

Thrilled by this turn of events, the customers dug into the beautiful pie and in no time at all the whole thing was gone.

"Where is Gil?" sally asked.

"Yes, where? I would love to say thank you for this lovely surprise." Eönwë added.

Thus began an inn-wide search for the mysteriously absent baker. A search that ended in the kitchen where, to the horror of all, the skin of the thing that had once been Gil was found, having been hastily tucked under the oven.

"Wait, if that's Gil's skin ... where's the rest of him?" Disbelieving eyes met across the room.

"No." Lommy whispered.
"The pie ..." Encai gasped.

As one, the patrons ran from the room. The slow rise of the sun was punctuated that morning by the sounds of desperate retching from nearly every room.

Dead:
Agan, moddess - slaughtered by lions on Night 1
Kath, moddess - mauled by bear on Night 1
skip spence, ordo - tasted the axe on Day 1
wilwarin538, Three-Eyed Raven - eaten by bear on Night 2
Galadriel55, ordo - murdered by lions on Night 2
Macalaure - Lannister lion - stabbed through on Day 2
Nerwen – ordo – interrupted by bear on Night 3
Volo – ordo – ripped apart by lions on Night 3
Kitanna, ordo - died under a bandwagon on Day 3
Coppermirror, ordo - snacked on by bear on Night 4
Gil-Galad, ordo - served to the Inn in a pie of his own making on Night 4

Alive:
Eönwë - house Royce
Inziladun - house Tully
Encaitare - random peasant
Thinlómien - house (Stannis) Baratheon
Boromir88 - house Bolton
Loslote - illiterate Tyrell cousin
A Little Green - house Reed
WythDryden - house Martell
Eomer of the Rohirrim - house Stark
Rikae - house Tarth
Nogrod - house Swann
satansaloser2005 - random peasant

Day 4 has started.

[Encaitare]

Here are the votes from yesterDay, including notes of who cross-voted with whom.

Greenie --> Kitanna
Boromir --> Lommy
Gil-Galad --> Lommy (2)
Inziladun --> Kitanna (2)
Encai --> Kitanna (3) *cross-posted with 3 previous votes*
Wyth --> Kitanna (4) *cross-posted with 4 previous votes*
Copper --> Kitanna (5) *cross-posted with 1 previous vote*
Kitanna --> Encai
Loslote --> Kitanna (6) *cross-posted with 3 previous votes*
Lommy --> Kitanna (7) *cross-posted with 2 previous votes*
Sally --> Lommy (3)
Nogrod --> Kitanna (8)
Rikae --> Encai (2) *cross-posted with 8 previous votes*
Eomer --> Boromir

Did not vote: Eonwe

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Narration

Meanwhile, the lions were busy. Chuckling, they leaped up the stairs, past the odd lump that was either sally or sally's straw-stuffed clothes and that was mourning over Kitanna's corpse (completely innocently, of course).

Now what is this supposed to mean - adding Sally's behaviour in the end of yesterDay?

Is there a secret role or... *goes to check the rules*

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Now what is this supposed to mean - adding Sally's behaviour in the end of yesterDay?

Is there a secret role or... *goes to check the rules*

Clarification: no, there's no secret role, it was just a request that we didn't see in time for yesterday's narration (hence the "completely innocently" part).

[Thinlómien]

Dead ordos left and right. Apparently it's too much to hope for that the baddies would ever kill each other - statistically it should have already happened, right...? Well, let's try to enjoy the suspense.

Still very baffled about Kitanna. I was so sure she was a wolf, but maybe this was one of the instances when the most logial option is false... Need to do a lot of rethinking toDay.

Also, Sally, care to clarify your trolling yesterDay? You had probably half of us thinking we're not getting a wolf after all but a lover.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

it was just a request that we didn't see in time for yesterday's narration (hence the "completely innocently" part).

Sadly that doesn't explain anything... I even went back to see the previous page but found nothing to explain that. Or maybe I'm just stupid and don't see something obvious?

[Thinlómien]

Also, help, my ominous maths from Day1 is back:

Our odds are still pretty good, but given that we're 12 and there's 2 wolves and 2 lovers, it's worth bearing in mind (PUN NOT INTENDED BUT NOTED, GREENIE) that 1/3 of the people in the village have some priority other than simply lynching the most suspicious-looking person.

[Nogrod]

So to be clear...

Is it presumed that we should be able to understand something from the Night's narration considering Sally or not aka has Sally something to do with the Night's happenings or not - or is that going to be exactly the stinger you wish to make us mad mulling over - or was it just a funny but gamewise insignificant mention in the narration?

[Encaitare]

The Lions' choice to kill Gil-Galad first struck me as a "safe" kill. Gil had been quietish and wasn't under much suspicion. But now I'm seeing that Gil was one of the only 3 to vote for Lommy. If the wolves were looking for a "safe" kill, they could have chosen one of the many voters on the Kitwagon.

New theory: Lommy received the second-highest number of votes yesterday. If she is a Lion, it could be that she and her fellow Lion made a risky choice to kill Gil, and hope the inn's guests wouldn't think she'd kill one of the three who voted for her.

As for the Lovers' choice to kill Coppermirror, there are three possibilities:
1. They are trying to lie low (like their kill of Nerwen might indicate)
2. They got a Lionish vibe from Cop (maybe they suspected a Lion under the radar)
3. They have chosen to side with the Lions (either for now or permanently, seems unlikely, but always possible)

The whole thing with Sally completely baffles me, and I hope she is here toDay to explain herself.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So to be clear...

Is it presumed that we should be able to understand something from the Night's narration considering Sally or not aka has Sally something to do with the Night's happenings or not - or is that going to be exactly the stinger you wish to make us mad mulling over - or was it just a funny but gamewise insignificant mention in the narration?

As I said, NO - it was a funny but gamewise insignificant mention.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Encaitare

New theory: Lommy received the second-highest number of votes yesterday. If she is a Lion, it could be that she and her fellow Lion made a risky choice to kill Gil, and hope the inn's guests wouldn't think she'd kill one of the three who voted for her.

It's not impossible, but as you said there were safer targets a LommyLion could have pushed for.

Originally Posted by Encaitare

As for the Lovers' choice to kill Coppermirror, there are three possibilities:
1. They are trying to lie low (like their kill of Nerwen might indicate)
2. They got a Lionish vibe from Cop (maybe they suspected a Lion under the radar)
3. They have chosen to side with the Lions (either for now or permanently, seems unlikely, but always possible)

Numbers-wise it makes sense still for the Lovers to side with the village. Did they think Cop was a Lion who'd been lying low? She'd been fairly under the radar and uncontroversial.

Originally Posted by Encaitare

The whole thing with Sally completely baffles me, and I hope she is here toDay to explain herself.

Who's the more odd, Sally or Boro?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

As I said, NO - it was a funny but gamewise insignificant mention.

Thanks.

Now back to the Germany vs. Algeria game... It's hilarious and quite interesting as Algeria is totally dominating Germany... who would have thought of that?

Back later.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Encaitare

The Lions' choice to kill Gil-Galad first struck me as a "safe" kill. Gil had been quietish and wasn't under much suspicion. But now I'm seeing that Gil was one of the only 3 to vote for Lommy. If the wolves were looking for a "safe" kill, they could have chosen one of the many voters on the Kitwagon.

My theory is that Gil was generally unsuspected and quiet, so a good kill. Less chaotic than he used to be, so maybe even a gifted. Obviously the only trace in his posting leading to an innocent wouldn't have been something bad in their eyes either, and Encai being so quick to grasp at that trail doesn't make her look very good to me. Really, if I was a wolf, I'd have killed almost anyone but Gil.

[Encaitare]

Originally Posted by Inzil

Numbers-wise it makes sense still for the Lovers to side with the village. Did they think Cop was a Lion who'd been lying low? She'd been fairly under the radar and uncontroversial.

Yes, numbers-wise it does, so I hope they are still on our side. Either they thought Cop was a very stealthy Lion, or they were going for a "safe" kill. Maybe as more Ordos get killed, the Lovers are getting nervous about both surviving to the end.

Who's the more odd, Sally or Boro?

Seriously. I would feel a lot better about his quietness if he wasn't acting so strange about it. Boro, where the heck are you?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Encaitare

Seriously. I would feel a lot better about his quietness if he wasn't acting so strange about it. Boro, where the heck are you?

Well, yesterDay he wasn't quiet but rather quite all over the place. Since Kitanna turned out to be innocent, he would look quite wolvish to me, except I'm not sure if wolf-Boro would make such a show of himself.

Originally Posted by Encai

Either they thought Cop was a very stealthy Lion, or they were going for a "safe" kill. Maybe as more Ordos get killed, the Lovers are getting nervous about both surviving to the end.

The only thing that stands out to me is that Cop is quite a similar kill choice to Nerwen - someone posting more analysis than opinions and not generally very suspected. Maybe they're multi-tasking the same way I was multi-tasking as a seer last game: go for more easily readable wolf suspects during the Day, for more difficultly readable possible wolves at Night.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Encaitare

Seriously. I would feel a lot better about his quietness if he wasn't acting so strange about it. Boro, where the heck are you?

As vexing as he's been at times, try as I might I can't see a BoroLion acting the way his has. Why draw such attention to himself? Granted, it could an evil scheme on the part of him and his partner, but it still seems awfully reckless.

x/d with Lommy

[Encaitare]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

My theory is that Gil was generally unsuspected and quiet, so a good kill. Less chaotic than he used to be, so maybe even a gifted. Obviously the only trace in his posting leading to an innocent wouldn't have been something bad in their eyes either, and Encai being so quick to grasp at that trail doesn't make her look very good to me. Really, if I was a wolf, I'd have killed almost anyone but Gil.

A fair point. I haven't played in so long that I don't have a solid grasp of anyone's playing style anymore, but if you say he's acting different than usual, the Lions may very well have thought he was a gifted.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Well, yesterDay he wasn't quiet but rather quite all over the place. Since Kitanna turned out to be innocent, he would look quite wolvish to me, except I'm not sure if wolf-Boro would make such a show of himself.

The whole "vanishing" act is getting rather old...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I want someone, or more than one person, to explain in just a few sentences why Kitanna was suddenly top suspect yesterday. That whole situation was strange to me. I recall someone (was it Nogrod?) claiming that her death would give us answers, or at least better info. I'm not sure why. Sure, Kit always has a slightly sneaky style of play, but what does that matter?

That's mostly what I'm interested in today. I find the night-kills to be of limited interest since the Seer is no longer here.

Links to Mac are what's gonna catch us lions.

Sally and Boro better have explanations for their weirdness.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Day 1: Gil voted for Boro. No vote from Cop.
Day 2: Cop voted for Eomer (me). Gil voted Mac.
Day 3: Gil voted Lommy. Cop voted Kit.

Make of that what you will.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Sorry for triple posting, but you can't edit in WW.

So Cop as a no trace kill from the bear.

Gil to set up Lommy, or bluff from Lommy?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I want someone, or more than one person, to explain in just a few sentences why Kitanna was suddenly top suspect yesterday. That whole situation was strange to me. I recall someone (was it Nogrod?) claiming that her death would give us answers, or at least better info. I'm not sure why. Sure, Kit always has a slightly sneaky style of play, but what does that matter?

For me it was her safe-looking votes, coupled with the appearance that she seemed to be one of the more quiet ones.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I find the night-kills to be of limited interest since the Seer is no longer here.

Well, they might give us a window into what the Lions and Bear are looking for, but you're right in that there's limited value there.

x/d with Eomer x 2

[Encaitare]

A summary of the Kitwagon for Eomer:

YesterDay, it appeared that Nog, Inzil, and Lommy were the first few to voice suspicion of Kitanna. This was due to "safe voting," her apparently trying to take pressure off of Mac, Mac's defense of Kit the Day before, and Kit's analysis of the Lovers instead of the Lions.

Then, Greenie did a lengthy analysis of Kit's activity, post #374. It was quiet for some time after that, and then Greenie cast her vote for Kit. Nogrod said in #392 that he might vote for Kit, so we can find out what she is and not have to wonder anymore. I also voiced suspicion of Kitanna because she was a Skip voter. Loslote suspected either Kit or Rikae for largely keeping out of bandwagons.

Finally the voting took off, and you can see the voting order in my post #445.

[WythDryden]

A few preliminary thoughts on people so far.

Encaitare - Quick to look at Lommy at #452. Lommy has amassed some suspicions, maybe tries playing the angle that we wouldn't suspect someone so obvious (fear of making the same mistake as was made on kit?), therefore making us suspect the obvious. Possible wolf-tactic. Her point of the possiblity of the lovers joining the wolves is a pretty good one I think, now that we're dropping numbers maybe they're getting shifty?

Thinlómien - Quick to point back at Enca over possible wolfy behaviour. Though the way she does it seems pretty wolfy to me as well.

Boromir88 - As absent as he was Boro pretty outspokenly defended Kit, who we now know was an innocent. Looking better than he did to me yesterday, but still has been a bit odd. Could just be hard to judge if he hasn't been having much time to commit because of RL. I don't know about him though.

Eomer - Wants us to disregard the night kills. While I think analyzing Mac's links is important, I think going down all avenues of clues is important. It always seems weird when someone says let's not think about that too much, even if there isn't much to glean from what could be little-to-no trace kills. Points out himself that Cop voted for him on day 2. That could possibly be an attempt at beating someone else to the point, to make himself look good, but I don't know.

Sally - Defended Kit in #405, but didn't actually put her vote against Lommy until Kit had amassed 7 votes. A wolf would know that she's innocent so it'd be relatively safe to suddenly stick up for her so much (and be right), especially when it's that likely she's going to get the axe. Play to make herself look good?


I feel that raising suspicion on so many people, but also providing counter-points is non-committal and vague (and look pretty wolfish), but as it stands it's getting harder to trust anyone. My votes also may not have looked good. I voted for Kit based on a(n) (innocent) slip, safish votes, and the fact that Mac put her in his trusted list and thought he might be hiding a packmate there, as well as her vote on skip. I definitely feel like I've been pretty successfully manipulated through day 2 and 3. Not sure who is responsible, but the strange feeling that Nog is the most capable, who I've felt good about thus far. Ack.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Short version: Observe what I believe to be Prince Bearomir hinting at his role.

House Bolton = flay our prisoners. Banner = the flayed man. Making a reference to say I didn't think she was a wolf, based on her Day 2 vote. That sort of vote and the reasons aren't one a Lion makes in those situations if she was attempting to help Mac.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Boro - really weird toDay, and his conviction of Kitanna's innocence in strange. Also he talks about yesterDay's voting like he knows Kitanna and Zil are innocent, which is slightly alarming.

Actually I never said anything about Zil's innocence. I'm still slightly suspicious for a possibility that their interaction Day 2 was all a lion-on-lion act. It at least set up nicely for stage lion-on-lion fight, and I noted the convenience that they wouldn't have to worry about the seer, so whoever came out unlynched wouldn't have to worry about being checked. I just find your actions and desire to get attention away from Mac and Inzil to be more suspicious. And this...

Originally Posted by Lommy

Okay, so either Boro and Kit are lovers, or Borowolf is going a bit too far in latching onto Kit who he knows is innocent. This does not fit with my theory that Wilwa dreamt of innocent!Boro though. But seriously, I don't understand at all why Boro has suddenly decided to become Kitanna's knight in shining armour, again when really hasn't been that much suspicion against her. (Notable also that he attacks me, the person who has probably suspected Kitanna the most.)

This just doesn't sound like normal innocent Lommy flip-flopping. I state Kit's vote doesn't make sense if she's a lion...and your mind goes to either...

1. We're lovers (false)
2. I'm a lion latching onto someone I know is innocent (false).

No consideration that I'm just exceptionally good at reading people's motivations and get a good feeling on whether a person's voting is innocent or not?

Originally Posted by Eomer

He's up to something. I know this is "throwing my vote away" apparently but I'll hopefully get to look into it next day.

Of course. If I'm giving a cryptic and creepy vibe then even better, because we all have a character to play and I try my best to play it. I'm actually not being paid to make Greenie's head hurt, but if anyone wants to pay me for that, I won't object.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by WythDryden

Eomer - Wants us to disregard the night kills. While I think analyzing Mac's links is important, I think going down all avenues of clues is important. It always seems weird when someone says let's not think about that too much, even if there isn't much to glean from what could be little-to-no trace kills.

Just to clarify, Wyth, all of you may spend as much time dissecting the reasons for the night kills as much as you want. All I'm saying (intuitively, mind you - I could be persuaded otherwise) is that since the Seer is gone, I don't find very much use in analysing them. They gotta kill somebody. Anybody could fit.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

But I'm just now remembering the Targaryen/Hunter so maybe I'm being too dismissive. Still, are the villains actively trying to kill the Hunter while there are still plenty players left in the game? By that, I mean: are they purposely killing those who are publicly suspecting the wrong people (innocents)? Could be an argument in favour of Lommy's innocence (Gil voted her yesterday).

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I want someone, or more than one person, to explain in just a few sentences why Kitanna was suddenly top suspect yesterday. That whole situation was strange to me.

If not a red flag, then at least an orange one here.

No innocent knew yesterDay that Kit is as innocent. Instead there were multiple reasons why it looked she was a pretty decent candidate for being in cahoots with MacLion. So the kind of smug "would someone tell me why" -attitude kind of jumps out... I mean yes, you can make a comment if you have strongly disagreed with others about a mass-lynch the earlier Day (especially if you had expressed your reasons openly beforehand when the end-result was not known) and if you have showed some reasons why you were correct the Day before, you might even pressure others to explain why they thought their reasons were better than yours - the Day before.

And in that case, you might look forwards for others to have some respect for your sharpness... But this case looks nothing like that. On the contrary. A wolf did know already yesterDay Kit was not one of them so a wolf could afford the smugness.

That is not to say that no lion voted for Kitanna. It is possible, if not probable at least one of them did as it would have been a nice and easy place to hide.

But I'd quess they'd both not do that. Let's call that an educated hunch (it's nothing more - but having been a wolf on several games I know they normally, on average, wish to act a bit differently).


An other thing that caught my eye toDay was Encai and her interpretations... I'll be back with them later as I see people have been posting.

[Loslote]

Cop suspected four people yesterDay: Eomer, Lommy, myself, and, later, Kit. I remember being a little surprised by that, since of the original three suspicions, two of us (Eomer and myself) were not generally considered suspicious, and in fact, both of us were pretty generally agreed upon to have done things that looked more innocent than not. Cop's suspicion of Eomer and myself was unusual relative to the suspicions most people had that Day. If Cop was killed as a no-trace kill, it seems interesting to me that the bear chose someone with such unusual suspicions. My guess is that Cop was one of the few people who didn't suspect the bear and/or maiden to some degree. This means that Lommy, Eomer, and myself are probably not the bear or the maiden (though keep in mind that this says nothing about their potential for lionhood).

So, who among us are generally suspected, other than Lommy? I would say, Enca or maybe Boro. My guess is that one of those two are our bear and/or maiden - and if I'm remembering the rules right, when we lynch either one, we drop down a Night kill. What do we think about taking a day to go bear hunting?

EDIT: xed with Nog

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Loslote

This means that Lommy, Eomer, and myself are probably not the bear or the maiden (though keep in mind that this says nothing about their potential for lionhood).
-----
What do we think about taking a day to go bear hunting?

This must be one of the best I have ever seen!

Let me see...

"X, Y and Myself probably are not "Jinx", so how about we hunt for "Jinx" toDay (because I'm not one, you see - at least according to my own nice theory) and not the boring old wolves we'd usually go for?"

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

This must be one of the best I have ever seen!

Let me see...

"X, Y and Myself probably are not "Jinx", so how about we hunt for "Jinx" toDay (because I'm not one, you see - at least according to my own nice theory) and not the boring old wolves we'd usually go for?"

Sure, except for how I also said somewhere in the middle there "and by the same argument A or B might be "Jinx", so do we want to try our luck with lynching A or B, or do we want to focus on the wolves". If we want to focus on the wolves, that's fine. However, I thought Cop's death was too strange to be passed over completely, and I used the information I had to reach a logical suspicion. Normally, at this point, I would have simply moved Enca and Boro to my "suspicious" list. However, I suspect that one of them is the bear and/or maiden, and it really is a question whether or not we want to use a lynch on a bear suspicion, so I decided to pose the question to the village at this point rather than jumping in feet-first.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Ok Nogrod, I know for sure that you were pushing for a Kitanna lynch. For what its worth, I still consider you likely innocent for other reasons (see previous posts); but I hardly think it's reasonable to jump on me like that.

I checked in early, and nothing much had happened. I then went to work on my RL assignment. Checking back later, suddenly Kit was the top suspect. I'm simply asking what happened, because reading back through the thread, the case against her came out of nowhere.

[Nogrod]

To add on my earlier comment on Lottie's suggestion... I'd say we stick to searching the treacherous Lannister Lions because with them we at least have a clue (MacLion) and we know their general modus operandi ie. we have some ideas about what kind of things to look.

With the Bear we have basically nothing - and so trying to find a Bear is quite futile. What would you Lottie think would be the "Bearmarks" you'd go searching?

I also agree with Eomer that with the Seer gone the Night kills are kind of open to any interprettions because there is no clear agenda anymore. They can kill anyone they wish.

As a general rule I'd presume they'd kill people who would be hard to lynch, but even there I think I have been disproven in this game (fex. killing Volo - whom they'd have quite an easy game to get lynched after his last minute vote).

So fex. killing Cop or Gil could be anyone's doing... they could even throw a dice.

Yes. They might wish to get rid of someone, even if that would be risky if they did that straightforwardly. But on the very same grounds they could bluff and "frame" someone as one the lions felt they had to do away with...

Sure, if you come uo with a believable scenario as to why the lovers came up with some specific kill-decision, I'm all ears. It would be really cool to catch them that way. I just don't quite see how we'd be able to accomplish that right now.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I hardly think it's reasonable to jump on me like that.

I don't think I was jumping on you. I was just pointing out that the kind of hindsight easily readable from your post is a kind of a flag - if not red then orange.

It might be a question of semantics though. To me it read like a little smug besserwissenschaft, but if it actually was just an honest question you willing to understand the reasons... well then I failed to read it from there. The eternal problem of doing things not in your mother-tongue...

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

With the Bear we have basically nothing - and so trying to find a Bear is quite futile. What would you Lottie think would be the "Bearmarks" you'd go searching?

...

Sure, if you come uo with a believable scenario as to why the lovers came up with some specific kill-decision, I'm all ears. It would be really cool to catch them that way. I just don't quite see how we'd be able to accomplish that right now.

Like I said before, Cop was unusual in suspected Eomer and myself, and was also somewhat unusual in not suspecting Enca and Boro. Most people did, to some extent, express at least some uneasiness towards both of them. Cop was the exception. The bear had to chose somehow, and if they or their maiden were already under suspicion, they would have wanted to avoid digging the hole deeper by killing someone who suspected them. Cop's unusual suspicions make sense as a bear target if Cop was one of the only people the bear could kill, since Cop was one of the only people who didn't suspect them at all. This points to Enca for sure, and maybe also Boro - but Enca is more likely according to this argument.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Like I said before, Cop was unusual in suspected Eomer and myself, and was also somewhat unusual in not suspecting Enca and Boro. Most people did, to some extent, express at least some uneasiness towards both of them. Cop was the exception. The bear had to chose somehow, and if they or their maiden were already under suspicion, they would have wanted to avoid digging the hole deeper by killing someone who suspected them. Cop's unusual suspicions make sense as a bear target if Cop was one of the only people the bear could kill, since Cop was one of the only people who didn't suspect them at all. This points to Enca for sure, and maybe also Boro - but Enca is more likely according to this argument.

Okay. That's a scenario.

But it's also a scenario full of if's... like any scenario we might build on the Bear at this point, I'm afraid.


First there's the "if" of the lovers being under suspicion aka. some pressure to be careful with their kills.

Now it seems you say that "exactly because them choosing Cop shows they were under pressure", but that is indeed begging the question as to whether there could have been any other reasons for the lovers to pick Cop?


Let's assume, for an argument's sake that Wyth and Greenie are the lovers - couldn't they just throw a coin and come up with Cop? The answer is, yes they could.

Let's assume, for an argument's sake that myself and Lommy are the lovers - couldn't we have decided that we want to keep around only people who contribute a lot of their own thoughts and not just quotes and thence picked Cop? The answer is, yes we could.

Let's assume, for an argument's sake that you Lottie and Eomer are the lovers - couldn't you have decided to get rid of Cop and her nasty suspicions and decide to make this kind of defence for it trying to sway us to look at is as it should be Encai and/or Boro? The answer is, yes you could.


Do you see this problem?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Let's assume, for an argument's sake that Wyth and Greenie are the lovers - couldn't they just throw a coin and come up with Cop? The answer is, yes they could.

Let's assume, for an argument's sake that myself and Lommy are the lovers - couldn't we have decided that we want to keep around only people who contribute a lot of their own thoughts and not just quotes and thence picked Cop? The answer is, yes we could.

Let's assume, for an argument's sake that you Lottie and Eomer are the lovers - couldn't you have decided to get rid of Cop and her nasty suspicions and decide to make this kind of defence for it trying to sway us to look at is as it should be Encai and/or Boro? The answer is, yes you could.


Do you see this problem?

Yes, I suppose so. I just found it strange that, of all the people, Cop - whose suspicions were so unique yesterDay - was killed. For most possible scenarios, it seems like we could find someone who would have better fit. (Though, admittedly, your Eomer-me theory wouldn't work with anyone else!) But, yeah, I guess it is a bit of a stretch.

[Nogrod]

I seem to be so happy making different explanations as to forget to underline in the end their point...

So the point of the above different scenarios was that there are so many reasons and non-reasons for different lover-combinations to pick Cop last Night you can't quite pin point one that looks reasonable and think you got them.



Another thing before I go to sleep (it's 3.30 AM).

As I've had myself some problems following all the kills by the different sides I checked the Nightkills and they are as follows:

Bear
N2 Wilwa (seer)
N3 Nerwen
N4 Cop

Lions
N2 G55
N3 Volo
N4 Gil

I'm not sure if I can see any pattern there - in either of the lists. But please see them more closely if you can.

But I could say, that it somehow looks like after the terrible first gameNight kill the Bear and the maiden fair have been hunting possible lay-low lions.


Whether I am right or wrong with that interpretation, I'd say to the lovers that you should keep sticking (start to stick) with the village: we have better numbers to offer.

We are twelve all in all. 2 lions against 10 non-lions - and even if the Bear itself was not counted as a non-lion - it would still mean that we have at least 9 against 2 ratio when counting the winning conditions. So help us get the lions and you'll have better chances at winning.


The lionkills in turn... well, they make no sense to me. Especially the Volo-kill is just plain odd.


EDIT: X'd with Lottie.