Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Loslote]

In reading toDay's posts, I have found myself very suspicious of Zil, due to his bringing up the Kit situation. I haven't necessarily gotten a "wolf feeling" off of him prior to this, but I haven't exactly gotten an "innocent feeling", either, and I can more easily believe that the wolves decided it was worth while to bring up the Kit situation than that an innocent just decided to make it open and public rather than trying to quietly ignore it. I have also found myself wary of Pitch, for continuing to talk about it, but there is some plausible deniability in that Zil mentioned it first.

I didn't like Boro's posts earlier toDay, but as he mentioned me as a suspect, I decided to sleep on it before reacting. He does have a point that I shouldn't just assume Brinn is innocent - but I think his reasons for suspecting Brinn are weird, and I don't like that he uses Rikae's trap "catching" Brinn as a reason to suspect her. It feels too "well, known innocent says!" for my tastes.

I am very concerned by Mac's response to the Night kill. It feels to me like he was very prepared to insist that it was a frame job, not a Macwolf killing a possible Seer, almost like he knew it was coming and had a whole Night to work up the paranoia. He is definitely high on my suspect list.

I am not comfortable with Lommy's posts toDay, but as I might be a bit biased due to her suspecting me, I'm going to take a minute to make sure I'm not being blinded by that before taking a closer look at her.

On a more positive note, I am getting an innocent vibe from Legate after reading his posts toDay.

[Pitchwife]

Legate, I quite agree (hence my initial eyebrow at Zil), but we'd already arrived at most of the points you make at the end of the discussion, so isn't it a bit convenient to make yourself look good by this holier-than-thou sermon?

[Eönwë]

Now that the Ranger discussion has been brought out into the public, I have to say that this post makes me feel better about Shasta:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I think perhaps Kitanna is my best read at the moment. I had fundamentally the same reaction to G55's eleventh-hour Ranger claim as she did.

I know last time I said that it is possible that they are both wolves being cheeky, but it does seem more likely that he was, at least in that instance, trying to bury this discussion by pointing to Kit's post as something anyone might say. Again, it is possible that they are being very bold wolves, but generally, it seems risky to attach so closely to another wolf especially when you've voted in the same way. So whoever Shasta thinks the Ranger is, I think he is trying to protect them here by trying to suppress this discussion that has just been blown open (luckily not enough for any reveals to occur). Thus doesn't necessarily say anything about Kit's role, or even what Shasta thinks about Kit's role - whether he believes/believed that she is a gifted, ordo, or wolf, discussion of the Ranger is dangerous for the real Ranger.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Now that the Ranger discussion has been brought out into the public, I have to say that this post makes me feel better about Shasta:

I know last time I said that it is possible that they are both wolves being cheeky, but it does seem more likely that he was, at least in that instance, trying to bury this discussion by pointing to Kit's post as something anyone might say. Again, it is possible that they are being very bold wolves, but generally, it seems risky to attach so closely to another wolf especially when you've voted in the same way. So whoever Shasta thinks the Ranger is, I think he is trying to protect them here by trying to suppress this discussion that has just been blown open (luckily not enough for any reveals to occur). Thus doesn't necessarily say anything about Kit's role, or even what Shasta thinks about Kit's role - whether he believes/believed that she is a gifted, ordo, or wolf, discussion of the Ranger is dangerous for the real Ranger.

I agree with this. Shasta definitely handled the situation in the best possible way for an innocent, and I don't really see the benefit if he's a wolf. Makes me feel much better about Shasta.

[Macalaure]

I still find Brinn worrisome, but:
If she’s a wolf, then the wolves thought Rikae was the seer. If they didn’t think so, it would be a terribly incriminating pick, even if Rikae gave them hunter/ranger vibes - hunter and ranger are typically not super effective early in the game, so you could safely leave Rikae for later and kill somebody else. The thing is, the way Rikae raised her suspicion on Brinn did not have a seerish vibe to me.
If Brinn is not a wolf this leaves a greater variety of possible reasons. The wolves’ prime target is the seer, but what do they do if they don’t see one yet? You can’t seer hunt on flimsy hunches: it’s pretty bad for a pack if every night’s kill has the same subset of suspects and it's them. If you’re clueless about the seer, offing someone who might be ranger or hunter, or who would likely be the most innocent-looking person the next day, or whose death will frame innocents - or ideally a combination or all of the above - is a sensible course.
This gives me enough reason to leave Brinniel be for now.

Originally Posted by THE Ka

Going back and looking over Rikae’s ‘bait-post’, this was especially insightful. Rikae speculates from Mac’s tone and approach that they’re either just happy to be playing again, or the quote given above. If you looked at some of Mac’s earlier posts on face value alone (for lie detecting in WW we don’t have the benefit of ‘face’ language), they’re using contractions, there is very little distance from who their subject is in their lists (using names directly, interspersed with memories/gossip, etc.), etc. They perhaps don’t omit everything and have some extraneous details here and there to roleplay a little with others, but when confronted on this, they cooperate with the questioning. It’s fun to be mysterious, to play, but the behavior above isn’t quite the one of someone trying to hide in the corner nor spend all their mental effort meticulously repeating an alibi.
I don’t think I’ve played with Macalaure in WW before, so I really don’t have the benefit of knowing their play style like others do, but I do know enough basics of looking for lying behavior and I’m not really seeing it in these posts. I didn’t see the logic entirely when players were trying to decide to make a Macwagon (another reason is that term alone is making me think of this: and then my mind just wants to make jokes the entire time…) the first Day.

One gets used to having their posts analyzed in werewolf, but this level of analysis makes me very nervous and uncomfortable. If you’re using your powers for evil, we’re all doomed.

Also, you’re right, we’ve both played tons of games, but we’ve never been in the same one together!


Also, to those who say “the wolves don’t pick their kill just to frame someone” - who says just?

Originally Posted by Greenie

(especially since, as we’ve seen, this particular one apparently can “frame” either Brinn or Mac, depending on which one you ask)

If we’re both innocent, then.. both?? Wolves analyze who their kill will make look bad before they sign off on it! This dismissive tone is bothering me.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Conclusions? I’d be very surprised if both Mac and Brinn are innocent.

Self-fulfilling prophecy maybe, but this is exactly how I’d expect a Green wolf to act if framing me and/or Brinn is part of their plan. Dismiss framing concerns, raise suspicion, and close with a noncommittal “one of them is a wolf”.

Originally Posted by Legate

Also, the "fake votes" debate was already going on by itself at that point, G55 was free to light another fire. The more, the merrier.

She may have started setting fires left and right, but in the end, she brought out the napalm.

Originally Posted by Legate

Framing or not framing you she would leave for you to sort out

Oh, I don’t think Gala was trying to frame me. I think she felt I was a wolf and tried to buddy up to the pack. I have no proof, but I see a coherent possibility that the wolves are trying to use that as part of their plan.

Originally Posted by Lommy

So why is he so fixated on that?

Not because of what Rikae said, but because Gala’s entire attack rested on it.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I'm unwilling to go very meta on this

Yet you do go very meta on it. I could make a meta case against it, but won’t.

I am not fond of either Greenie or Lommy right now. At all.


Been rethinking Kitanna. While I obviously disagree with her case against me, I do feel like Kitanna’s accusations against me are a lot more earnest than Greenie and Lommy’s. Her taunting of Gala right before the deadline is also something only the boldest wolf would dare, I think. I’m gonna leave her and Legate be for now.


I feel the itch to make a suspicion list, but there are a whole number of people I haven’t been able to look at consistently, so I hope I’ll get to it.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, and I am getting bad vibe from Lottie's post above.

It essentially says "I am suspicious of the people who did something toDay that has provoked controversy" - that could easily also mean "I am a Wolf waiting for people to pick which of the bandwagons that are offering themselves toDay would be the best to ride on". These are literally all the things that were controversial toDay, stated by someone else, so I could imagine Lothwolf writing it here to "butter up" people who first stated it. I am wary.

Similar kind of behaviour I have been noticing toDay still also in Huinesoron, to a degree - even though in his case, it is rather along the lines of "I comment on XY, but then again just so that you don't think, I do not really mean it, but thought you should know".

I have been feeling a bit better about Kitanna - her lengthy analyses lean more genuine - but I am still very much on the verge about her.

There are lots of people who are on my mind now, but I'll be on-and-off for a while now still, so excuse random tidbits.

EDIT: x-ed with Pitch and onwards

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

In reading toDay's posts, I have found myself very suspicious of Zil, due to his bringing up the Kit situation. I haven't necessarily gotten a "wolf feeling" off of him prior to this, but I haven't exactly gotten an "innocent feeling", either, and I can more easily believe that the wolves decided it was worth while to bring up the Kit situation than that an innocent just decided to make it open and public rather than trying to quietly ignore it. I have also found myself wary of Pitch, for continuing to talk about it, but there is some plausible deniability in that Zil mentioned it first.

Oh, come on!

With five wolves, is it plausible none of them saw the post before I asked about it the next Day!?

x/d with Legate

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Similar kind of behaviour I have been noticing toDay still also in Huinesoron, to a degree - even though in his case, it is rather along the lines of "I comment on XY, but then again just so that you don't think, I do not really mean it, but thought you should know".

My problem right now is that the current big thing is the Kit discussion, and it doesn't seem to be breaking along any kind of lines, and in particular along any of the lines I noted earlier. As just one example: you and Lottie entered the discussion with posts saying similar things, but now you suspect her for a post on a different aspect.

Which is exactly what I'd expect from an innocent! I'm not seeing anyone jumping out at me as a wolf, so I'm worried the whole thing is just villagers savaging villagers while the wolves look on and laugh.

I've also been wanting to see more from Mac, and I see he posted right before you did. Time to see what he has to say for himself.

hS

[satansaloser2005]

In no real order....

Mac seems too paranoid to be true.
Steve's vote seems more suspect the more I think about it.
Brinn gives me no read, which is worrisome, and therefore a bit suspicious.
Lottie is acting quite strangely, and engages in topics I think an innocent Pop would normally avoid.
Urwen no longer matters, so I'm not going to bother reading through her posts right now.


x'd since Pitch because I've been busy

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

My problem right now is that the current big thing is the Kit discussion, and it doesn't seem to be breaking along any kind of lines, and in particular along any of the lines I noted earlier. As just one example: you and Lottie entered the discussion with posts saying similar things, but now you suspect her for a post on a different aspect.

Which is exactly what I'd expect from an innocent! I'm not seeing anyone jumping out at me as a wolf, so I'm worried the whole thing is just villagers savaging villagers while the wolves look on and laugh.

I agree with this. And I've seen this a couple of times now:

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Legate, I quite agree (hence my initial eyebrow at Zil), but we'd already arrived at most of the points you make at the end of the discussion, so isn't it a bit convenient to make yourself look good by this holier-than-thou sermon?

Pitch was the first to raise an eyebrow at Zil's behavior, so he thinks it's holier-than-thou for Legate to come down on it. Then...

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Okay, and I am getting bad vibe from Lottie's post above.

It essentially says "I am suspicious of the people who did something toDay that has provoked controversy" - that could easily also mean "I am a Wolf waiting for people to pick which of the bandwagons that are offering themselves toDay would be the best to ride on". These are literally all the things that were controversial toDay, stated by someone else, so I could imagine Lothwolf writing it here to "butter up" people who first stated it. I am wary.

Legate had already condemned the people who brought up Kit, so when I also brought it up, he thinks it's jumping on the bandwagon. Which is all somewhat fair, except that it was my genuine first reaction to seeing someone keep talking about a slip until the Ranger was forced to straight up admit it - this is very suspicious! Yeah, I wasn't the first to mention it, but I'm not going to avoid saying that I think it's suspicious just because I wasn't the first person to see it go down and say something about it.

[satansaloser2005]

Also, I don't like how we're discussing Kit, so those engaging in that discussion strike me as inherently more suspicious than those not. Just a random thought.


x'd with Lottie

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Also, I don't like how we're discussing Kit, so those engaging in that discussion strike me as inherently more suspicious than those not. Just a random thought.

I am now done with it.

[Thinlómien]

I kinda agree with everything Sally has said after her return, but somehow it makes me rather more than less suspicious of her. She's mostly echoing sentiments of other players, and fairly uncontested ones at that. She couldn't be less controversial if she tried.

I'm flip-flopping on Lottie again. She seems to make sense from her own pov, but I'm not sure it's an innocent pov.

Mac's defence of himself didn't really make me less suspicious of him, but it did make me a little more suspicious of Greenie. Hmmm...

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I kinda agree with everything Sally has said after her return, but somehow it makes me rather more than less suspicious of her. She's mostly echoing sentiments of other players, and fairly uncontested ones at that. She couldn't be less controversial if she tried.

Great minds think alike, and also sometimes this one.

[satansaloser2005]

In such a big game, it's easier for me to focus on a few people at a time, rather than try to get a read on everyone and stressing myself out. My previous (twice removed) post is just who I'm reading as especially suspicious right now, so I'm unlikely to vote toDay for someone who isn't on that list. It's also getting closer to the end of the Day, so I think people might want to start making up their minds on who they're voting for, but I know that's easier said than done.

Unfortunately I passed out illogically early last night and didn't get the chance to post until this morning, so I'm sorry about that. I'll try to do better over the weekend, for sure.

[Kath]

Oh my goodness RL stuff has meant time has really got away from me toDay. This is going to have to be quicker than I would like.

Rikae surely had to be a suspected Gifted kill, I simply can't see the point of it otherwise, so all these 'I'm being framed' theories make no sense to me. Mac thinking he's being framed, Inzil thinking there could be a frame related to Brinn, Brinn suggesting it was a frame on her

Originally Posted by Inzil

Rikae was the first vote on Brinn, and it must be significant that the wolves went after them. It's far too early for them to have been simply wanting to frame someone.

(I edited Inzil's words for pronouns there). Inzil agrees it seems.

Whereas Lottie:

Originally Posted by Lottie

My guess is, the wolves thought Rikae looked so innocent after the G55 fight - it's doubtful the cobbler went full tilt after someone they thought could be a wolf - that she wouldn't provide much cover for them. Semi-known innocents can be really powerful, after all.

Also a valid argument, I just feel that so early in the game the wolves can't afford to not be aiming at Gifteds.

Originally Posted by Hui

The fact that so few people commented on it as it was ongoing surprises me - it felt like such a big thing! But it was mostly just a vocal Cobbler doing her best to incite a flame war.

I'll be honest and say it's something I've seen before with at least Rikae and I think that's true of a few players here.

Originally Posted by Hui

What jumped out to me from that? I think Pitchwife is as suspicious as all get-out, for when and how he voiced his suspicions and placed his vote. Lommy flipflops (sorry, considers both sides). Both Legate and Lottie talk about lynching Brinn for information, which I don't much like on a Day 1 this busy. And if Eonwe is a wolf who masterminded the wagon and then didn't even need to climb on it (switching to a vote-the-absentee strategy on Urwen), then he pulled it off with masterful skill.

Is all this based on simply the fact that people went after Brinn? Given we don't know her role can such firm suspicions really be drawn at this point. If she'd been lynched and had turned out to be innocent I think this would all deserve a bit more credence.

Originally Posted by Inzil

I thought they looked dodgy at the end of yesterDay. After so heavily going after G55, they failed to vote that way. I wondered if a Rikae-wolf hadn't started picking up the Cobblerishness.

(I edited for pronouns again) This is about Rikae in response to Lottie saying Rikae would likely have been presumed innocent toDay. Interesting that even hypothetically there may have been two sides to this.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Just a thought about the QT vote - there are now two players in that thread and one is a cobbler. It's highly unlikely G55 will cooperate with Rikae and I believe if I'm right, in the case of a tie, G55 swings the vote. So while she may not know who the wolves are, we will all have to take that vote with a grain of salt.

Agreed, but at least it's only one vote in still a very large village.

Originally Posted by Mac

In her vote, Gala mentions other things, but following her posts, she very much started going after Rikae because they misrepresented something I said, thus exaggerating her suspicion of me. That's what everything spiraled out of control from. Gala must have thought Rikae was gifted, it makes no sense that she would go after them like that over that little reason if it was otherwise. A cobbler’s life isn’t worth much, but they tend to not go kamikaze this early without purpose.

Maybe she got hunter or ranger vibes from something, possible, but:
- it’s not unreasonable that seer-Rikae would pick me as their first dream.
- if you’re the seer and you know a wolf, what do you do? Keep quiet? Drop hints? Go all out and accuse? Try to subtly steer the village into lynching that wolf?
The way Rikae suspected me could fit the latter. Gala tried to associate herself with me several times, which makes me suspect that Gala thought so as well, a cobbler trying to reach out to who she thought was a wolf.

I'm not quite following the idea that G55 would have purposefully tried to associate with Mac if he is a wolf, when a Cobbler has no way of knowing who the wolves are, and presumably doesn't want to draw attention to anyone they think might be one.

Originally Posted by Brinn

So I found Pitch slightly suspicious yesterDay because he picked on Legate who if innocent, could be easy to build a case against. I did back off some on the suspicions, as I sensed a bandwagon building on him and if he were innocent, could be the work of wolves and didn't want to be caught up in it (which is apparently the post that several including Rikae found to be suspicious).

In terms of a Pitch-wagon building up as you say, who were you finding worrisome in the mix? You ended up voting G55 to save yourself, which I said earlier is entirely natural whatever a person's role, so if there hadn't been the need, would your vote still have gone to Pitch?

Originally Posted by Eonwe

One thing that I don't think people have really addressed toDay is that Pitch was seriously on the chopping block yesterDay and then managed to get taken out of the running, and a large part of that was G55 becoming an eligible vote candidate due to Zil and Lottie.

When I was going through the votes earlier this whole section involved a LOT of cross voting. Kitanna and Inzil's votes were cross posted and so Pitch and G55 were still equally in the running at that point. Lottie's vote was the first clear one to put G55 one ahead.

Originally Posted by THE Ka

When I was suspicious of both Brinn and Loslote of drifting into the shadow of Rikae-G55 debate, Loslote was the one out of the two who began defending themselves. A villager is probably gonna show anxiety on small things like when they replied to you, semantics and word choice, etc. not immediately what you’re accusing them of. At that point, they just want to prove themselves.

I can't quite tell whether you're saying that Lottie defending herself makes you think she is more likely to be an innocent or not.

Originally Posted by Eonwe

One thing I'm wondering about is the very very late timing of the G55 reveal. The options, at increasing levels of bluff, seem to be:

She was trying to get an innocent Brinn killed.
She wanted us to believe (1), but actually thought Brinn was an Infector and knew it was too late.
She wanted us to believe (2), but actually thought that Brinn was innocent and wants us to suspect her by assuming (2) is true.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I think she just wanted to 1) save herself possibly (and in doing so, sacrifice Brinn which just says she didn't think her a particularly likely wolf), 2) possibly flush out the real ranger, and 3) cause chaos. Why not do it earlier? Maybe she didn't think she'd actually get lynched, or it didn't cross her mind until then. I wouldn't spend too much time on this.

And at the point she revealed, there were two more people to vote, and as Lal has now said if she'd appeared in that moment she would likely have voted Brinn in order to save the 'Ranger' and along with sally's vote that would have been G55 saved to presumably continue causing chaos the following day. So it could have had big ramifications.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

It wasn't that the vote for Brinn didn't come with a decent argument, it was it looked so obviously like he didn't want to tangle himself in an LGP bandwagon. Looking at the voting table, when he voted G55 was ahead and his vote tied Brinn though it wouldn't have mattered since first vote of a tie dies. I'm not sure how cross-posted his vote was though. He may not have known that his would tie up votes.

About Mac. Not a cross vote as far as I could tell when I looked at all the votes, and yes even with the tie it wouldn't have caused Brinn to be lynched if those had been the last votes.

Originally Posted by Inzil

It could hardly have stayed hidden. Thing is, the only way she could have known G55 wasn't who she claimed was if she was the Ranger herself. If that's the case, why on Arda would Rikae have been a better target over Kit (unless the Wolves indeed were antsy Rikae might be the Seer)?

See this is why I didn't really mention Kit in the voting round up. It was one strong reaction, but given the assumptions it raised, not bringing that to the forefront seemed more sensible. I'm assuming you're thinking that her being alive still suggests the reaction isn't a sign of ... what I thought we all thought it was a sign of!

Originally Posted by Lottie

Also, if Kit is NOT the Ranger and the wolves decided to sacrifice her in order to draw out the real Ranger, I would implore the real Ranger to NOT come out just to expose her. I agree that I am hugely suspicious of Zil and, to a lesser degree, Lhuna and Pitch for continuing to talk about it. Drawing attention to it doesn't help the village at all.

I'm wary that any of this conversation really happened. And still seems to be happening even onto a new page after it was first brought up and then it was suggested that perhaps it be left alone.

[Huinesoron]

Have looked over Mac's #405, and I don't like it. He seems to be focussing heavily on the people who suspect him, and explaining why that must make them wolves. Okay, I've read enough Werewolf to know that innocents do this, but a) so do wolves, and with a good deal more urgency, and b) didn't Mac spend a big post early toDay explaining how he thinks G55 thought he was a wolf? He even brings it up again here.

And yes, there are more details, but with the amount of words that have been thrown around you can build some kind of case against everyone. The fact remains that his case against Greenie relies heavily on 'this is exactly how I’d expect a Green wolf to act'.

At the moment, my vote would probably go to Mac or Pitch. Pitch has been looking better toDay, but as I said (earlier toDay, I think?), I tend to read him as reasonable when he's responding to me anyway. So I need to go back and read him over again.

Lommy has... has she been posting? Right, a bit at the end of page 9, and onto 10. That explains why she hasn't struck me as suspicious for a while - she's not been here? I'll look over her as well, but my memory is that I've felt slightly better about her toDay.

The Zil/Lottie connection seems to have evaporated, so I'm tentatively calling Lottie innocent (and see no reason to change my earlier placing of Greenie and Legate in that category). Zil has... wow, has really been pushing this Kit-discussion, hasn't he? Leaning against trusting him still.

Crossposts from people named above: Lommy is back and, oh stars, literally saying 'flip-flopping'. But I think I'm getting a feel for her style, and this doesn't feel wolfish. I'll still reread to check what I was worried about before (too many villagers, I can't remember who did what!)

Zil has posted with... a short, zero-content post. 'Short' seems to be his style, but #412 does take it to extremes. Overtones of 'let me drop back into the shadows'. So I stand by my 'wolfish' read.

(Crossed with everything from #409.)

hS

[Eönwë]

Seems fine for now (won't vote unless something changes)

Shastanis Althreduin - As said above, seems innocent or a VERY bold wolf.

Satansaloser2005 - Haven't seen much of her, but what I have doesn't seem suspicious.

THE Ka - She seemed good yesterDay, and hasn't done much to change that.

Huinesoron - Nothing pinging any alarm bells so far. Lots of well-thought-out posts.

Lalaith - Not enough to go on, but nothing seems bad yet.

Lhunardawen - Making good points, seems to generally be on the side of the village.

A Little Green - Seems fine so far.




Wary of (Probably wouldn't vote unless something changes)

Rune Son of Bjarne - Maybe his suspicions and self-proclaimed bias against me have me watch him more carefully/too closely, but I don't suspect him enough to vote for him.

Kath - Something about her recent posts have given me wolfy vibes, so I'm watching her closely.



Dangerous (Could vote, but not my first choice)
Kitanna - Not sure what to think of her now, but I haven't taken her off the hook completely.

Legate of Amon Lanc
Pitchwife
Brinniel
Macalaure
Inziladun


Alarm bells (Would vote)

Thinlómien - She's seemed more possibly wolfy to me toDay. One thing is that she seems to have backed off from Boro without much warning - maybe afraid that a manufactured Boro suspicion was gaining too much traction?

Boromir88 - I don't like his list ignoring non Brinn/G55 voters, or in fact that post as whole - it exonerates him a lot by implication - he's not on the list, and he says that the first vote for someone is innocent (which he did, but isn't available on the list). Also, see Lommy.



To look into (No idea)
Loslote - She hasn't set off any alarm bells yet for me, but I've seen her mentioned as suspicious quite a bit. Boro suspects her for her vote yesterDay (#324), and Lommy thinks she's 'looking at things from a very wolfy pov' (#387). Whether this is real or manufactured suspicion remains to be seen, and I'm going to have to reread her posts to see if I agree.




Note: sorry, I have very limited time again toDay, and hopefully will be able to post more later. I have to leave right now. Unfortunately, this means I have to leave those last few names in the Dangerous section uncommented - some might get upgraded to the Alarm Bells category when I get a chance to look at them more deeply, but I didn't want to put them there without further reflection.



edit: x-ed since Lottie's #404

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Legate had already condemned the people who brought up Kit, so when I also brought it up, he thinks it's jumping on the bandwagon. Which is all somewhat fair, except that it was my genuine first reaction to seeing someone keep talking about a slip until the Ranger was forced to straight up admit it - this is very suspicious! Yeah, I wasn't the first to mention it, but I'm not going to avoid saying that I think it's suspicious just because I wasn't the first person to see it go down and say something about it.

I was not referring to you speaking about that one thing, but about everything. Boro, Mac. Everything that has been deemed "controversial by the public". I am not saying these can't be genuine suspicions, but these are all things you can then easily pick up if a bandwagon starts on either of them - and they all seem like they easily could.

EDIT: x-ed with multiple again and took out something I accidentally quoted

[Thinlómien]

++Macalaure

Can I now say "let's make this more interesting"?

But seriously though, someone's gotta start, and it might as well be me since I have a clear main suspect and he's had a chance to defend himself but I didn't really buy it.

Will continue to pop in and out until the DL!


edit: xed with Legate

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I was not referring to you speaking about that one thing, but about everything. Boro, Mac. Everything that has been deemed "controversial by the public". I am not saying these can't be genuine suspicions, but these are all things you can then easily pick up if a bandwagon starts on either of them - and they all seem like they easily could.

With Boro that's again probably fair. However with Mac, I had been suspicious of him yesterDay, and I've mentioned it a few times. One thing you are right about is that I haven't spent the time to really look at the quieter players. Most of the people I suspect right now are the louder players who have done things that are obviously suspicious. I'll do my best to take a look at the players who are currently flying under my radar. I may even do a list, though I've tried once or twice and just found the sheer size of the village and the number of people I have no read on a little overwhelming.

[Kitanna]

Shasta
Post #63: Banter about cobbler
Post #64: Banter about Lady Macbeth
Post #65: +1 for Inzil. I assume one point for a comeback...?
Post #66: Likes something Lottie says about a no lynch idea from G55.
Post #67: Says he's contributed enough to look like he's particpating. Says he'd vote for Lommy. But clearly a joke.
Post #175: Returns from his slumber to let us know here's reading through.
Post #188:

Based on nothing more than this description of events I'd speculate on Cobbler-G55 and Innocent-Rikae. My opinion may change after I get context.

*stares into the nothingness of the void to make sense of his accuracy*
Post #190: Responds to a Lottie, one I believe is about keeping an eye on Brinn
Post #191: Reiterates finding Rikae innocent and G55 cobblerish. Also finds some suspcion in Pitch/Eonwe
Post #192: Asks for more context on a Pitch post
Post #197: Digs in on Greenie's analysis. Going so far as to say an evil Greenie might mean an evil Ka. Most of the post is just benign reponses to what Greenie said of everyone.
Post #198: Responds to a comment from Pitch
Post #201: Likes a post Ka made.
Post #204:

Of those with votes, I won't vote for Rikae, could vote for Brinn or Pitch, and probably won't be voting for G55 unless it's to save someone I think is innocent.

Post #207: Gives an opinion on Greenie. Did agree with some of her points, but also didn't on others. Seemed to be someone he thought warranted watching, but didn't outright suspect.
Post #211: Response to a Greenie
Post #215: Makes a bad pun/dad joke. I point to the door of my office and yell "get out" to no one.
Post #229: Time check for self based on Inzil's comment about "last night?!"
Post #233: Response to Pitch
Post #239: Votes Pitch
Post #248: Not comfortable with Greenie or Eonwe's votes.
Post #322:

I think perhaps Kitanna is my best read at the moment. I had fundamentally the same reaction to G55's eleventh-hour Ranger claim as she did.

This is before all those posts close together popped up about my comments toward the fake reveal.
Shasta hasn't been back since. A few others have mentioned feeling ok or good about him. To me, I mean, seems genuine in his short posts, but I'm finding it hard to truly sort him out.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Kath

In terms of a Pitch-wagon building up as you say, who were you finding worrisome in the mix? You ended up voting G55 to save yourself, which I said earlier is entirely natural whatever a person's role, so if there hadn't been the need, would your vote still have gone to Pitch?

Between the three, Boro for his flimsy reasoning and Kit because her case against him could be opportunistic and the timing of her vote (was looking to be the start of another bandwagon). I don't like Shasta's vote either, but find it less worrisome.

Ideally, I would've voted Inzil or Kit for the reasons I mentioned yesterDay. But between Pitch and G55, yes I would've preferred Pitch as I thought him more suspicious than her.

[Kitanna]

I have spent more time on WW than my actual job today. Oops. I get done an hour before DL and hope to get more analysis done then.

[Lhunardawen]

Last few thoughts before I vote. It's waaay too late here already.

Originally Posted by Brinn

So I found Pitch slightly suspicious yesterDay because he picked on Legate who if innocent, could be easy to build a case against. I did back off some on the suspicions, as I sensed a bandwagon building on him and if he were innocent, could be the work of wolves and didn't want to be caught up in it (which is apparently the post that several including Rikae found to be suspicious).

Wait let me see if I get this right. If Legate is innocent it could be easy to build a case against him, so you suspected Pitch because he picked on Legate. Then you eased up on suspecting Pitch because you did not want to be caught in a bandwagon that could be orchestrated by wolves.

I'm just... Lost. Shouldn't one back off from suspecting someone because of what they said, not because you're worried about what others would think if you end up voting for an innocent? Not helping your case here.

I'm in the camp that finds Eönwë's vote yesterDay suspicious, and his posts so far today don't ease that feeling.

One thing that I don't think people have really addressed toDay is that Pitch was seriously on the chopping block yesterDay and then managed to get taken out of the running, and a large part of that was G55 becoming an eligible vote candidate due to Zil and Lottie.

But also take into account that (at least) Lottie's vote was consistent with her suspicions all Day. It's also odd that you agreed with Boro about Zil and Lottie's votes and then suspect him for pointing it out.

Might vote for one of these toDay:
Mac but almost too out there a choice, I'm finding his posts difficult to reconcile with what I know of an InfectedMac
Lommy
Brinn

Bears looking at more closely:
Boro
Kath
Huin
Zil
Kit
Eönwë

Everyone else, either I can't put a finger on or flying off my radar or there's just not enough space/energy for now.

[THE Ka]

Originally Posted by Kath

As to why Rikae for the Night kill, I would assume the wolves were gunning for someone they thought might be the Seer. It would seem foolish for them not to always be aiming for a Gifted. Trying to set up frame jobs is all well and good in theory but their aim surely has to be to get rid of the greatest danger towards them.

Due to her confidence of play style and zeal? You could easily argue that Kit could make it onto the ‘possible Seer’ list as well for wolves for similar reasons. Lommy could come in as a possible third on such a list due to the proximity of her interactions with the main popular suspects.

I’m not really getting the hint they had a belief in Rikae being a gifted such as a Seer, but possibly another gifted role and barring that, settled with if Rikae was an innocent then they’d want them out of the way to play on other’s bias of who was most critical of them (sans G55) and knowing that there might not be another innocent who'd engage as eagerly with Rikae (thus causing some bait to see who would be an easy pick) in an argument.

Originally Posted by Rune

*raises on eyebrow* I don't love how he continually brings up himself as mewolf and crafts a conspiracy theory around wolves setting him up.

It is curious that Mac has increased this this type of semi-joking argument toDay. Yesterday based on actions I could understand the flighty tone he answered questions laid at him about his ‘lists’, but this is as if he’s trying to rehearse a story by telling and talking about himself over and over and then feigning ‘usual paranoia’.
So, why does Mac want to be a point of attention?

Who benefits from Mac’s performance is really what I’m wondering.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Also, if Kit is NOT the Ranger and the wolves decided to sacrifice her in order to draw out the real Ranger, I would implore the real Ranger to NOT come out just to expose her.

Why… why would the real Ranger do that on the end of Day 2?

Ranger is arguably one of the more key gifted roles next to Seer. You’d want to remain concealed as much as possible in order to see from the game Day who you need to protect that Night.
If someone pretends to be your role? Oh well. You can’t immediately go after them the next Day in game without drawing obvious attention.
G55 throwing out there last minute about ‘But I’m a Ranger!’ was as duping delight as a cobbler could get.

[Kath]

I'm sorry, I'm very short on time toDay and won't be back again before the deadline so I need to vote now. I've skim read since my last post just to get the general gist of where everyone is but haven't looked at anything much in detail.

The person jumping out to me right now is Inzil and it's because of the Kit thing. So I'm being a total hypocrite by talking about it again.

Originally Posted by Inzil

It could hardly have stayed hidden. Thing is, the only way she could have known G55 wasn't who she claimed was if she was the Ranger herself. If that's the case, why on Arda would Rikae have been a better target over Kit (unless the Wolves indeed were antsy Rikae might be the Seer)?

Since we're now talking about it, assuming Kit is the Ranger, the only reason I can see for the wolves going after Rikae instead of her is that they thought she was the Seer. This felt clear to me from the top of the Day.

Originally Posted by Inzil

That's what I can't fathom. Does it give Rikae-as-possible-Seer more weight? Or could it point to a very bold Kitwolf?

Ok, maybe it's because I am taking the Kit thing at face value, but then because of that I'm not sure about this push for a Kitwolf theory. It was picked up on and Inzil quickly dropped it.

And then he seemed quite defensive when people said that they didn't like it all being brought up.

++INZIL

[Loslote]

Feel good about
Legate - I wasn't sure yesterDay, but his posts toDay give me an innocent vibe.
Kitanna - If she's lying, we'll find out eventually. For now I see no reason to distrust her.
Shasta - I really like how he handled the Kit situation, trying to defuse it without drawing attention to it.

Feel okay about
Greenie - I've liked some of her points, and I feel like she's being very helpful. I don't have a strong enough sense of her to put her in the "good" category, though.
Huinesoron - I like the way he's thinking about the game, which makes me feel generally okay about him. I do see some of the points people have made about his summaries not always being completely accurate, though, and that's something to keep an eye on - in particular, do his summaries end up resulting in a cohesive misleading campaign?
Lhuna - I've liked what I've seen so far toDay. She seems to be helpful and thoughtful.
Brinniel - I didn't get any sense at the deadline yesterDay that any wolves were trying to swing the vote away from her. Moreover, I've been getting an innocent vibe from her. I don't want to assume innocence, though, so I won't let my feeling that wolves were not trying to save her push her into the "good" category. I could be wrong - a lot of people get a very different feeling from her - but I don't suspect her at this point.

Feel dubious about
Pitchwife - I go back and forth on Pitch. I got a wolfy vibe yesterDay, and I'm torn on his involvement with the Kit-Zil thing earlier. I don't have him at the top of my suspicion list, but I don't trust him either.
Lommy - I get a vaguely positive vibe from her, but then I end up disagreeing with most of what she actually says. I don't know if we're just coming from very different perspectives, but I end up not knowing what to think about her.

Feel bad about
Zil - He'd been largely flying under the radar for me, right up until he pointed out the Kit thing, which I found highly suspicious. I don't know what motivation an innocent would have in bringing it up. I could easily see that being something the wolves planned out over Night.
Boro - I haven't been comfortable with his posts toDay. Like Lommy, he could just be approach this from a completely opposite perspective than I am, but I get a bad feeling from him.
Mac - I started to be suspicious of him yesterDay, and his posts today have been worrying. Specifically, his posts about being framed felt a little pre-planned to me - like he knew Rikae was going to die and had time to work himself up about their death implicating him.

Feel nothing about
Kath - I think what I've seen has been pretty reasonable, but she's flying under my radar. Almost put her in "okay", but I don't have a strong enough feeling.
Lalaith - ditto Kath - what I've seen has felt fine, but I haven't gotten a really good sense.
Eönwë - I haven't seen enough to get a feeling one way or the other.
Rune - No read at all, I'd almost be inclined to put him in "dubious" just based on a vague feeling but it's not strong enough or based on anything, so I'll reserve judgement until I have a better read.
THE Ka - ditto Kath and Lalaith - seems helpful, but flying under my radar.
Sally - I haven't seen enough from her to get a good reading on her yet, totally under my radar.

I don't like how many people I don't have a read on, but in such a big village, it's hard to get a sense from everyone. I will probably vote for someone in my 'bad feeling' category, unless someone in my 'dubious' or 'no feeling' categories does something particularly suspicious.

[Huinesoron]

Okay, reading over my main suspects (Mac, Pitch, Lommy, Zil, in that order for now):

Mac: Thought innocent yesterDay, but realised today that was down to not trusting the way people were suspecting him, when those people were a (now) known and a probable innocent. ToDay, launched straight into 'what if everyone thinks I'm a wolf', and starts in on Kitanna, which is an interesting line in view of, y'know... Kitanna. And he keeps trying to implicate the people who suspect him. I really don't like this.

Pitchwife: My chief suspect yesterDay, for his actions in the GLP & several 'just asking questions' posts; also his position on the Brinn-wagon (both suspicion and voting). Launches toDay with "this may implicate Brinn, except isn't that almost too obvious?" - I'm starting to view this less as 'just asking questions', and more as 'they will say both no and yes'. He suspects Zil with no explanation (at the time), and later pushes both the start and the stop of the Kit discussion, including one 'saw it as I was writing' crosspost that makes me feel like his post was intended to take credit for starting the 'let's shut it down' discussion.

Lommy: My second suspect yesterDay, mostly for reasons of tone I think. ToDay, she seems a lot better. #350 is a good example of this - she's not sitting there saying 'yes, but maybe no', she's analysing the evidence for both (all) sides of the discussion. And she's cast the first vote, too.

Zil: Completely off my radar yesterDay; it's those short posts of his. Today, spent a fair few posts talking about things we know aren't true, such as Rikae-wolf; even more posts on the Kit discussion; really, I'm seeing a lot of posts where Zil's contribution is shorter than what he's replying to! It may be just his style, so he's not top of my list, but he does look (at least at times) like a wolf trying to look active without having to say much.

I'm starting to worry I might just trust people who write long posts on multiple topics. :-/

Okay, at the moment I'm likely to vote Mac, but will take Pitch as still looking about as suspicious as yesterday (Mac's just more suspicious). Lommy I'm going to call neutral for now. Zil I think there's a better-than-even chance is a wolf.

At the moment, two of my top three have 1 vote each. It's going to be interesting to see who gets offered up to take the heat off them...

hS

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Kath

Since we're now talking about it, assuming Kit is the Ranger, the only reason I can see for the wolves going after Rikae instead of her is that they thought she was the Seer.

THIS. Which points to either Mac or Brinn (not both, I think - Mac voted Brinn at a point where the Galwagon was well on the way, no particular danger to him and no need to bus a packmate). Finding out Mac's role will also shed a light on Brinn.


Right now my vote could go to either Mac or Zil.

[Lhunardawen]

Originally Posted by THE Ka

Why… why would the real Ranger do that on the end of Day 2?

Ranger is arguably one of the more key gifted roles next to Seer. You’d want to remain concealed as much as possible in order to see from the game Day who you need to protect that Night.
If someone pretends to be your role? Oh well. You can’t immediately go after them the next Day in game without drawing obvious attention.

EXACTLY. Thank you.

Can barely keep my eyes open anymore, so

++THINLÓMIEN

Parting shot: Friendly reminder, a bandwagon does not start with the first vote.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

THIS. Which points to either Mac or Brinn (not both, I think - Mac voted Brinn at a point where the Galwagon was well on the way, no particular danger to him and no need to bus a packmate). Finding out Mac's role will also shed a light on Brinn.

Right now my vote could go to either Mac or Zil.

My inclination would be to vote Zil, but I like this argument for learning more about Brinn's role by voting Mac. I could go either way.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Lhuna

Wait let me see if I get this right. If Legate is innocent it could be easy to build a case against him, so you suspected Pitch because he picked on Legate. Then you eased up on suspecting Pitch because you did not want to be caught in a bandwagon that could be orchestrated by wolves.

I'm just... Lost. Shouldn't one back off from suspecting someone because of what they said, not because you're worried about what others would think if you end up voting for an innocent? Not helping your case here.

Yes, and that post got me in a lot of trouble yesterDay, however, I stand by it. I didn't back off of him because of what people might think of me - I was more concerned that I was being manipulated by the wolves.

Originally Posted by Kit

I have spent more time on WW than my actual job today.

I feel you here. And most of my time is spent trying to play catch up!

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Huin

He seems to be focussing heavily on the people who suspect him, and explaining why that must make them wolves.

I made 7 quotes in that post, 4 of which were from people who suspected me.
I talked about 6 people, 3 of which suspected me, 2 of which I suspect in turn.

Yeah, that post focuses on that a bit more than it should, but your summary is not honest.


Anyway, I’ve been meaning to clear my mind suspicion wise.

Seem innocent
Kath
THE Ka

Seem innocent-ish
Kitanna
Pitch

Wary, but not worried too much
Legate - he seems more scattered than usual, maybe that’s just me
Huin - seems very helpful and productive, but sometimes feels odd
Boro - kind of like that, too
Brinniel - torn right here

Like heck do I know (this is the part I gotta work on trimming down)
Loslote
Lhuna
Inzil
Lalaith
Eonwe
Rune
Sally
Shasta

Alarm bells
Lommy -
Greenie - not because they suspect me (I know I set myself up to be suspected the way I’ve acted), but because the way they do it is sketchy as hell

[Loslote]

Also, to address this quickly:

Originally Posted by THE Ka

Why… why would the real Ranger do that on the end of Day 2?

Ranger is arguably one of the more key gifted roles next to Seer. You’d want to remain concealed as much as possible in order to see from the game Day who you need to protect that Night.
If someone pretends to be your role? Oh well. You can’t immediately go after them the next Day in game without drawing obvious attention.
G55 throwing out there last minute about ‘But I’m a Ranger!’ was as duping delight as a cobbler could get.

I saw that whole thing happening, realized I was caught up, and my first thought was, "Okay, Kit isn't a wolf. But. Wait. If Kit IS a wolf after all, what would be the point of revealing? To draw out the real Ranger. I should make sure that doesn't happen, just in case!" Now, was that necessary? Probably not, it seems pretty obvious. But at the time, it seemed important to say.

[Boromir88]

Ok, so reading has caught up to date. I made brief notes on things that were addressed to me.

Respond to saying sally's vote looked suspicious:

sally's vote strikes me as a little suspect. In the spur of the moment with such little time, I think everyone would have to accept G55's ranger claim. But if Brinn's not a wolf, sally's vote is the most suspicious.

I honestly can't tell you my point was here...other than temporary bout of conspiracy theory. It was late for me, I was exhausted, went to bed hungry and had a lapse that was focused more on sleeping than making sense. For whatever it's worth, it's not a suspicious vote. I'm personally feeling better today and sally looks trusty.

Respond to Greenie:

Why? I’m a little uneasy about Eonwe’s vote too as he’s been very cautious in general and that vote was, as Lommy and Lottie have pointed out, an easy way to keep his hands clean. But whether G55 was the cobbler or the ranger shouldn’t really impact an assessment of Eonwe because an Eonwolf wouldn’t know what she was, aside from “not wolf”.

True, but not so much that EonWolf wouldn't have known G55's specific role. It's more a throw away vote that could have been useful to prevent a ranger from getting lynched I would zero in and want to pay far more attention to. A throw away vote that didn't matter in the lynch of a cobbler I'm not going to worry about.

If that doesn't quite explain it well enough, for further understanding of why I'm not interested in throw away votes that didn't matter to a cobbler being lynched...see my next point below.

Response to Legate and Eonwe's accusations with my focus on the G55/Brinn wagons.

In all seriousness, am I the only one who's frustrated by the thought of thousands of paths and leads going every which way? One person can't possibly consider everything that you expect me to consider. I forget who, someone said we have a boring/unadventurous wolf pack. I think we have 5 wolves pulling things in 500 different ways and some are vocal leading the paths, others are laying low/joining in to different paths.

I'm one person. Right? I can't consider everything and to lump it on my desk "Boro didn't look at this" "Boro didn't look at that", is just flat wrong. "That must mean he's saying there can't be a wolf in the non-G55/Brinn voters." No, I didn't say that at all and that looks straight up suspicious. I just said I wasn't going to look into it. You went and looked into it. Great. Thank you. Seriously, thank you. It means I can look at what you say and make some judgements about you and the non-G55/Brinn voters.

Edit: crossed with a bunch

[Pitchwife]

Lottie, how is it that my involvement in the Zil-Kit thing is suspicious, whereas Lhuna, who was also involved (and made sure to point the issue out in case somebody had overlooked Zil's ealier post?) is 'helpful and thoughtful'?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Home and catching up.

A thought I thought last night before bed - a possible reason for a Rikae kill is that they were onto something with their train of thought re: the anti-Brinn wagon. Weigh in, please.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Lottie, how is it that my involvement in the Zil-Kit thing is suspicious, whereas Lhuna, who was also involved (and made sure to point the issue out in case somebody had overlooked Zil's ealier post?) is 'helpful and thoughtful'?

That's a good point, and I earlier did put both of you in that category, but it didn't come to mind when making the list. That's probably a bias on my end - I already suspected you and that added to that suspicion, whereas I didn't already suspect Lhuna and so it didn't stick in my mind. Thanks for pointing that out, I should look back at that with (hopefully) a less biased frame of mind!

[Lalaith]

Ok I wasn't going to say anything about The Kit Thing but seeing as it's being openly discussed - *glares at certain people* -
Could the people who are still putting Kit in the 'slightly/fairly' suspicious category please explain to me - how would a Kitwolf know G55 was lying about being a Ranger? All a Kitwolf would know was that G55 was not a wolf.