Werewolf LIII: The Republic

[the phantom]

I would like to, Shasta, but I think I should hold off for at least one day in honor of your performance the last time I played.

[Ilya]

Ok, so, thusfar:

Eonwe, Gwath, and Legate all have 1 vote.

Phantom, Boro, Brinn and I still have to vote.

I'm going to reread Legate's uber-post before I put together another list, but I'm not ready to commit a vote to any of the people who already have one. By the way, you want to lobby to this rep, kids? No need to quote, just bear in mind that brevity is the soul of wit. Or abridge Anna Karenina. Either works.

[Boromir88]

Thank you Ilya, for the voting summary.

Some points of interest...

-All 7 representatives cast a vote for a current representative, to be there rep.

That pattern makes sense, especially the last three votes that occured at the end (from Brinn, the phantom, and me). I didn't think we needed to go in with a set plan of how many reps, but at the end of yesterday with only 4 chosen reps with a total of 8 votes, that seemed too small. Both Brinn and the phantom handled the first DL orderly, and we managed to get a good representation, without cross-voting chaos. That makes Brinn and the phantom look even more innocent than I previously thought them to be.

-the phantom is the only representative who represents 2 current representatives (Legate and myself). - Not sure if that's much of a point, but maybe it boosts the phantom's ego.

-From the looks of it, we could very well lynch a representative. Agan voted for Legate. I'm considering a vote for either Legate, or ironically Agan.

I guess the question is, would it be a wise choice to lynch a representative? I agree with Lommy's generalization that there is at least one wolf amongst the reps, simply going by statistics that is actually a certainty. However, is that a route we want to take?

Alright, so I hope to hear more from Ilya, and I'm going to take a look at some of the non-reps like Gwath and Kath.

Edit: crossed with every one since the very last post on Page 10 - Shasta's.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by the phantom

morm- are you going to be around more often on Day 2?

I had planned on being around more on Day 1 but there was the meeting I forgot about plus work is killing me now. I'm not sure when but I am likely to have a funeral for my uncle in the next few days. He's in the hosptial and will likely pass away tonight. I was not overly close to him but I will still be attending any services when they are planned.

Now, I just got home from work and after a little dinner I hope to catch up and post a bit more.

[the phantom]

It is time for me to leave for my evening engagement, but I'll be back well before the deadline.

[Boromir88]

Eonwe, Gwath, and Legate all have 1 vote.~Ilya

whoops, I missed Legate's vote for Eonwe, I still thought only 2 reps voted.

[Ilya]

-From the looks of it, we could very well lynch a representative. Agan voted for Legate. I'm considering a vote for either Legate, or ironically Agan.

I guess the question is, would it be a wise choice to lynch a representative? I agree with Lommy's generalization that there is at least one wolf amongst the reps, simply going by statistics that is actually a certainty. However, is that a route we want to take?

Alright, so I hope to hear more from Ilya

I hope to oblige.

It would set a precedent, but honestly one I'm not alarmed about, because, as you say, it's very likely that there's a wolf among the reps. It counters my initial fear that wolves could gain immunity simply by becoming reps. The way I've approached repping is that I should vote for whoever I'm most suspicious of, period. It doesn't say much about our village's body politic if reps are lynching each other, but it also doesn't create another subdivision among the villagers.

Right now I think Legate's posting is very lengthy damage control, and Eonwe hasn't given me enough to make me suspicious enough to cast a vote, nor has Gwath, and the argument for voting for him seemed a bit Smerdyakov-like, since I seem to be going with the Russians today. Agan backed off of Lommy in a way that parroted what a lot of other people said. Dunno what I think about that.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

(And again, I'm tired, so if I misunderstand your post in some way please accept my apologies.)

In short, good thoughts. Now what do you think about wolves?

These two parts caught my eye from Sally...I'm starting to read and will post as I go along. It is always odd when people apologize in advance, it as though they want to set it up that when questioned on something they can point it out that they have a reason for it.

The last line struck me as being odd just in the context of the sentence.

[Boromir88]

McCaber, pops-in, pops-out, says a couple things and leaves, but I think that makes him extremely effective, as a wolf or innocent. From what I've gathered, he works well off others ideas, and I would not take his short few posts as carelessness. I think he carefully reads through everything, and since there isn't much more to add, just writes a couple thoughts about people. Last time I horribly took how "correct" he was about everything, as him obviously being a wolf, because he seemed to just know too much, and I had to give myself a paper-cut and pour lemon juice on it I was so wrong.

Anyway, where I'm trying to get at with McCaber, is his style makes him a wolf who can go unnoticed. But also a very dangerous foe versus the wolves, because of the quiet, almost un-threatening, yet sound judgement when he's innocent. Would you mind if I nickname you the silent assasin McCaber?

I'm not sure what to think about Kath yet. She seems to be playing rather uncommiting, and safe, but that's usually what I say about her. The biggest thing that troubled me was her question of what the reps expected from the non-reps. On the surface it seems like an innocent question from somebody who is looking to help out, and give some thoughts. On the other hand, it's kind of strange coming from Kath, I know this is a new situation and all, but it looks like she's not wanting to give up too much information. I mean really what do we expect from any innocent villager? Maybe it also has something to do with she did recently figure out non-reps could post during the 2nd part of the day.

Gwath, I really think too much is being made out of his vote for Nogrod as a representative. The whole argument really doesn't make sense, maybe someone can explain it here. But, since Gwath gave the reason of choosing Nogrod, because he believed Nogrod would keep the quiet players on their toes, and since Gwath would fall into this category of "quiet" players so far, that makes him look suspicious? Sorry, but am I reading things correctly?

Edit: crossed with Ilya and morm

[mormegil]

I'm on post 336 and it seems that Lommy and Agan are going at it strongly. I find little merit in either arguement and feel that both are innocent. Lommy seems like Lommy, who generally exhibits behavior that I find suspicious and she is doing that right now which is innocent, if that makes sense. Lommy seems to find one or two targets and is convinced of herself to the point that she puts blinders on other possibilities. I think that is what she is doing here.

Agan, I just have the feeling of innocence and that her and Lommy are just at each others throats but really should shift focus elsewhere.

[mormegil]

Oh my... I had a few ideas that had made me wonder while I read through the thread earlier toDay but it seems they were ill-gotten. Like that I had a strong impression that after Lommy and I argued for the benefits of choosing a less known person as a representative there was a wave of points out of thin air made to suggest Ilya was also their choice for a rep but they just didn't act that way because she had been already elected. So they were basically going with the flow and trying to look like they thought similarly with the majority. I really had a kind of a parrot-feeling on that and that always sends the alarms ringing with me. But there was no such a large and unfounded thing to be found... except possibly Eonwë who posted a little after my vote.

He considered myself and Greenie as his representative and as a third option he gave...

I'm not sure if you get what I mean but that does look suspicious. Of all the people around here he picked the three of us (choosing Greenie btw.) but unlike myself or Lommy who had actually argued why Ilya should be chosen (or anyone whom we'd like to see more of and feel somewhat safe with) he just went with the flow with no explanation of why he thought she could be a good choice, like stating something obvious for a choice of a representative with the "Then there is...".

This made some sense to me and I think there is merit in this. I had to read it through twice to make sense of it but I could envision a wolf hanging out waiting for something like this and then slowing merging into the flow.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by the phantom

I was going to say that!

In the future, if someone reverses their stance, it will be "Doing a Legate". Ha ha ha!

Hmm... What's something that I can do to turn my name into something cool like that?

You can suddenly be humble and then we can all say that when humility strikes you just pulled a phantom

...jerk

Sorry I had to add that after him calling me a jerk.

[Brinniel]

Just checking in to say I'm finally here. But I've still got four pages to read. Thanks a lot guys.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm here too, but am also in the middle of rehearsal, so I'm reading, but not posting so much.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Boromir

I guess the question is, would it be a wise choice to lynch a representative?

Why wouldn't it? It makes at least as much sense as lynch a person that is not a representative. . . It is not like everybody have been trying to become a representative, infact they seem to have been elected quite at random, so there is no reason that a wolf should not be amongst them.

I have read most of what happened since I left, but I simply skipped some of Aganzir, Lommy and Legates posts. . . . It is too late for me to read through that massive posts.

[the phantom]

Well, when you remove the people from the village that I listed as "safe from my vote", you are left with-

Diamond18
Ilya
McCaber
Nerwen
Rune
Shasta
The Ka

Crap. I don't really want to vote for anyone. Day 1.

I suppose the most important thing here is avoiding a massive tie. We have a three-lynch going right now. We have four Reps left to vote. If we pick new people, that'll be a seven-lynch blood bath.

No. Not good.

Boro, Brin, Ilya- do not feel that I am pressuring you to vote for someone who has already been voted for. Feel free, for I will hold my vote till near the end and put someone ahead if there is a mass tie.

But if all of you decide to do the same thing then we're looking at chaos and possibly disasterous cross-posting votes in which we all vote for someone with one vote and end up with a three-lynch or something like that. Whatever we do, let's find a way to avoid that.

[Brinniel]

Phew, I just did some majorly fast reading. It's been a long Day (both here and RL)...

Just a quick response to Legate:

Originally Posted by Legate

Now, now. What the Republic of a nonsense is that? Agan posted two posts which contained about nothing, and she said plainly there that she posts little because she does not have time. She also said she won't probably have much time tomorrow. So, if you voted her to be a Rep in order to see her posting more - you are doing something illogical, aren't you? If you ever read her posts, for that's the only thing I could think of as logical reason for that.

To see her posting more was only one of the reasons I voted her...the main reason I chose her was because I think she can have good judgement if innocent. And did she really not have time to post today? I think she posted plenty...

I still need to share my thoughts of everyone from what I've gathered so far...or at least what I've managed to gather. So much info in so little time is making my head explode.

[Boromir88]

Why wouldn't it? It makes at least as much sense as lynch a person that is not a representative. . . It is not like everybody have been trying to become a representative, infact they seem to have been elected quite at random, so there is no reason that a wolf should not be amongst them.~Rune

True. I was more just trying to look at some options here. Statistically speaking there is at least one wolf who is a representative, but the same would hold true for the non-representatives. There may be a greater probability of getting a wolf from the group of non-representatives. So, either way I look at it, it looks like a crap shoot and I'm just trying to figure out which way will give I get the best odds.

Edit: crossed with Brinn, and just X'out the word "give" in the last sentence...ya that was tiredness slipping in.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Diamond18 will no longer be participating in this game. She was an ordinary villager and will be written out respectfully.

[the phantom]

Darn it!

I was just about to float the idea of lynching Di because she seemed like a very safe lynch (ie not the Seer).

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I advise floating a different idea. Although you may feel free to waste your vote on her if you truly wish to do so.

[Boromir88]

Feel free, for I will hold my vote till near the end and put someone ahead if there is a mass tie.~the phantom

Well, I was going to put myself under that situation if it came down to it, but hey if you want to take it, I'm not complaining.

In that case, I'll vote sometime before the deadline, hopefully I can hear a bit more from others before then? What do you say? But it will be before the very, very end, if you know what I mean.

[Boromir88]

Oh, and so it is clear, I think I'm pretty much down between Legate and Agan. I will look through the stuff on Eonwe, but as far as Gwath, I don't see any reason to vote for him. Yes, Nogrod, that means I'm not buying your argument.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Representatives, you have approximately one hour left to vote for yourself and your constituents.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

To see her posting more was only one of the reasons I voted her...the main reason I chose her was because I think she can have good judgement if innocent. And did she really not have time to post today? I think she posted plenty...

I still need to share my thoughts of everyone from what I've gathered so far...or at least what I've managed to gather. So much info in so little time is making my head explode.

What and odd reason that is. . .I don't know if it speaks of innocens or wolfishness, but odd it is.

You are right that Aganzir posted plenty, infact she posted so much that it could seem like unauthorized filibustering.

Anyways I shall go to sleep now. . . . I will see you on election day. (if you dare)

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Ilya - so far so good

Okay I am just to this line and found it odd. It would seem to me that this is the first time Ilya has played, correct? If he/she (sorry I don't know which) were to be a wolf with Legate, there would be some aprehension and fear associated with such a role on the first time. It seems that Legate would be giving him a clue here that he's doing just fine and to keep it up. He said nothing similar to any other player. I have not suspect Ilya to this point but this raises my suspicions especially if Legate is one.

[the phantom]

So what do you think Boro? Go for a target that is giving off vibes, and risk that they are Seer vibes, or go for a target that seems extremely safe?

[Boromir88]

So what do you think Boro? Go for a target that is giving off vibes, and risk that they are Seer vibes, or go for a target that seems extremely safe?~the phantom

I'm going for someone giving off vibes, in this village with 4 wolves, and 1 gifted (the seer) I doubt the seer would be out in the open right at the start. Making a safe choice may actually turn out being the unsafe thing. Of course I could be completely wrong about all that.

[Ilya]

I was called away unexpectedly, but now I have returned. Thoughts:

Does anybody else find it odd that Agan and Brinn voted for each other, and now Brinn is questioning Agan? There may be nothing to it, but Agan has been a little hard to follow, at least for me, and it just muddles things further.

Legate seems to be a choice on other people's lists. I need another rereading before I'm ready to cast a vote.

tp's list has a lot of players that haven't spoken a lot. It may be the way to go, to try an torpedo a lurker, especially with things so unclear on day 1, but that's not what I'm going to do. I think there's enough written, and there should be at eleven pages, to pull some suspicion from those who have posted.

[Boromir88]

May I ask tp, what do you think about Legate and Agan? Not trying to lobby a vote here, but just in general, taking the risk of lynching either of them this early?

[Brinniel]

Aganzir: Nothing about her rings any alarms. Is it just me or does seem she and Lommy always fight in WW games together? Anyway, whatever's between them, I think it's ordo-on-ordo.

Boromir88: Hard to say. I think he's been posting wisely and while part of me feels inclined to trust him, another part of me is not so sure.

Eönwë: Has sort of fallen under my radar. In other words, I have no idea.

Gil-Galad: His confusion makes me think he's more likely innocent. I think were he a wolf, he would've taken time to at least glance at the rules.

Greenie: Not sure. I always have trouble trusting her.

Gwathagor: Hasn't really said enough for me to get a clear opinion on him.

Ilya: Is a player I'm not familiar with. She doesn't ring any alarms yet, but since I don't know her playing style at all, I'd like to keep an eye on her.

Legate: I agree he's acting a bit odd. His flip flop on tp was weird and he seems a bit too eager with power.

Lommy: see Aganzir

Kath: I need to hear more from her.

McCaber: Seems to be laying low.

mormegil: As of now, I have no idea. But I admit each time I play with him, he scares me.

Nerwen: Also needs to post more.

Nogrod: I admittingly keep skimming through his posts because they're so lengthy (along with a few other players). I tend to agree with him too much, but I can never get myself to trust him.

Rune: Is too focused on voting reps. Perhaps it's hard to find suspects in this early stage, but if you can find someone innocentish, surely you could also share something that seems slightly suspicious to you..

Sally: Is her usual happy-go-lucky self.

Shasta: Hasn't rang any alarms yet, but as of now I don't have any idea.

The Ka: Has posted substance, but still seems uninvolved. Something about Ka feels odd....just a gut feeling there.

the phantom: At 85 posts in one Day, he's reached an aggressive stage of CPD. Truly, tp always remains a mystery to me. Right now I don't see any reason to suspect, but if I do in the future I might not hesitate to vote for him. Because I did before and he turned out to be a wolf...

So...

Slightly Suspicious
Legate
McCaber
Ka

No Clue
Boromir
Eonwe
Greenie
Gwath
Ilya
Kath
morm
Nerwen
Nogrod
Rune
Shasta
phantom

Innocentish
Aganzir
Gil-Galad
Lommy
Sally

Gah, I have way too many people in my "no clue" section, and the ones in my suspicious list I'm not even that strongly suspicious of. Oh, how I hate Day Ones.

EDIT: X-ed with Ilya and Boro

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Ilya

Does anybody else find it odd that Agan and Brinn voted for each other, and now Brinn is questioning Agan?

When did I question Aganzir?

[mormegil]

I would like to point out that you phantom at 85 posts on Day 1, and counting, are responsible for over 2 full pages of posts...and they complain about the quiet ones...quite frankly I'm grateful there are some who have a reasonable post count here.

[Ilya]

Brinn, strike my last. You were responding to Legate, not Agan. All these posts are starting to run together.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

And people were worried about boring days...

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Boro

I'm going for someone giving off vibes, in this village with 4 wolves, and 1 gifted (the seer) I doubt the seer would be out in the open right at the start. Making a safe choice may actually turn out being the unsafe thing. Of course I could be completely wrong about all that.

Hmmm... I do see your logic. There's no way to know, I guess. It all depends on what sort of character the Seer is. Me for instance- you know good and well that I would hide right out in the open. I must think about this.

May I ask tp, what do you think about Legate and Agan? Not trying to lobby a vote here, but just in general, taking the risk of lynching either of them this early?

I'm not going to vote for them. I already said I can't trust Legate yet. So obviously I believe it is possible that he's a WW. But he's one that I think we could learn something from. I dunno... it's a risk.

[the phantom]

Brin and Ilya- what do you think about this matter?

I'd also like to know if I'm going to have to be breaking a tie, as it would then be in my best interest to skim their stuff as quickly as possible to see which would be the safer choice.

As far as my choice, I would say that Nerwen and McCaber are both relatively good choices as they did not vote for Reps and haven't said much on anyone. I've got pretty much zero vibes from them.

[Brinniel]

++Lynch Legate

Of the three on my suspicion list, he's the one I'm most suspicious of. And of the three who have already been voted for, he's the one I'd rather vote for most.

EDIT: X-ed with tp

[Boromir88]

I'm not going to vote for them. I already said I can't trust Legate yet. So obviously I believe it is possible that he's a WW. But he's one that I think we could learn something from. I dunno... it's a risk.~the phantom

Something else I try to consider is what information will I get from someone's lynch. Some one's death is the only way I'm going to get information, and while I have been considering voting for Eonwe (when I looked back through, Legate's been pretty consistant against him, and Eonwe, while has been entertaining us with catch-phrases, I saw little else). So, if Eonwe is not a wolf, what does that reveal about other villagers?

Where, obviously since Legate and Agan like to open their mouths more, their deaths could reveal a lot more for me.

[the phantom]

I'm also well aware of the fact that a WW could very well be among those still to vote, which is another reason I'm holding my vote.