Tol-in-Gaurhoth XX: Wereorc I: The elves cannot hide themselves much longer.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Caranlondien

Grendelien - It's true that she's playing quite insightfully for a newbie. As I said before, I was once suspected for the same thing, and I was innocent. However, that doesn't mean she is. Now that Nogrod's a confirmed innocent, it does make her attack on him look rather worse, though she's toned that down somewhat.

I myself would be careful with that one too. Remember it was not "my attack", but what came about, as I tried to look at her as an orc... It might be of note, that the one doing such an analysis is innocent, but anyhow, I'm not sure it makes the case worse as such (ok., if she'd be someone's fellow-orc, that analyser might have used some sugary words about her, but from that s/he would have been caught immediately...).

[Sleepy Ranger]

I just woke up, its 1am, I see this and something springs into my head. I'll post it and go back to bed so if its flawed then please excuse me.

Last Two Orcs: Grendelien and Naria

This is very short and based entirely on one point, make of it what you will. Naria dreamed of Nogrod, told orc-friend Grendelien. Grendelien immediatly backs off Nogrod.

A bit lame and farfetched but chew on it, toy around, maybe someone can pick something up from here? I won't stop you from voting Roa but in my opinion shes done no wrong.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Nogrod.

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I myself would be careful with that one too. Remember it was not "my attack", but what came about, as I tried to look at her as an orc... It might be of note, that the one doing such an analysis is innocent, but anyhow, I'm not sure it makes the case worse as such (ok., if she'd be someone's fellow-orc, that analyser might have used some sugary words about her, but from that s/he would have been caught immediately...).

Good point.

I've been going back over Celuien's posts, and my initial paranoia is calming down a bit. I certainly wouldn't vote for her toDay if she doesn't come back to defend herself (for obvious reasons). This day is lasting an hour later than usual, right? I need to go back over some posts before voting...

I'm still considering voting for Grendelien, Roa, or Naria.

[Roa_Aoife]

I don't know, Nogrod. That list by Celuien may have just been a mistake, typed out by a tired (or otherwise preoccupied) mind. I wish she would have explained her vote for me better though. I dislike unexplained votes, especially from people who normally have very good explanations. The accused can't really answer them, because no suspicions have been listed. This village has gotten into a bad habit of that lately. I blame last minute voting, really. (Honestly people, yesterDay was just rediculous. Poor Farael having to write up that last minute death scene...) I won't press her untill she's present though. It's really unfair to attack people who you know won't be around to defend themselves.

edit: cross posted with a lot....

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Caranlondien

Good point.

I've been going back over Celuien's posts, and my initial paranoia is calming down a bit. I certainly wouldn't vote for her toDay if she doesn't come back to defend herself (for obvious reasons). This day is lasting an hour later than usual, right? I need to go back over some posts before voting...

I'm still considering voting for Grendelien, Roa, or Naria.

I'm thinking about the same concerning Celuien - and some nuts to crack for the orcs too - if she be innocent...

And yes, I just checked the same myself: one more hour today - so 1½ hours to go.

I'll go back to my Findëasëa-stuff. Interesting...

EDIT: X-posted with Roa

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Sleepy

This is very short and based entirely on one point, make of it what you will. Naria dreamed of Nogrod, told orc-friend Grendelien. Grendelien immediatly backs off Nogrod.

The problem with this is what Farael told us at the beginning- the dreams come at the very end of the Night, just as the Day starts. There would be no time for Naria to inform Grendelien.

[Sleepy Ranger]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

The problem with this is what Farael told us at the beginning- the dreams come at the very end of the Night, just as the Day starts. There would be no time for Naria to inform Grendelien.

Oh, I see. And judging by Naria's posts I doubt there was any sort of code for the two to tell each other this. However, I'm almost certain there'll be a(n) [attempted] orc sacrifice today with the odds of the person doing it being an orc as well. Or else what Naria did would clear her from being an orc when she could very well be laughing her heart out at us, that evil black orc heart.

[Nogrod]

Just wanted to throw this one in too.

If we are having kind of rough times, then the orcses are not having it any more easier either!

They must choose their kill very carefully now, as the ranger is still here - and they got slapped on the face already once. If it is Zali, they might go for her this night. If Zali is a wolf, they will be just driven mad!

But they could choose me, or they could choose Sleepy. And even though Sleepy seems to playing with his left hand now, I know he can be smart and laborous, if he just gets the mood on. So they can't outcount him so easily either...

And the shaman-thing. It's starting to look all the more puzzled for them now, I think. Leads are weak now.

So go on and choose, orcs!

EDIT: X-posted again - with Sleepy, this time (so slow to type? )

[Grendelien]

Ok! I'm back! Let me read over things really quickly and post my vote...sorry it's so late!

[Caranlondien]

Lately I've wanted to start every post with "Oy"... because that is how I feel.

I have to leave soon. Unless something happens in the next 10 minutes, I'm voting for Roa.

[Caranlondien]

Grendelien, the Day doesn't end for another hour.

[Grendelien]

Oooooh, bless you Caranlondien...I was having a heart attack. Well, bless you if you're innocent...haha

[Caranlondien]

I hope I'm helping to lynch an orc.

++Roa

[Caranlondien]

Voting so far:

1. Findeasea --> Roa (Roa 1)
2. Sleepy --> Findeasea (Roa 1, Findeasea 1)
3. Celuien --> Roa (Roa 2, Findeasea 1)
4. Caran --> Roa (Roa 3, Findeasea 1)

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Roa, I feel that you are backing me into a corner.

Why do I keep re-asserting that I am the Ranger? Because people like you keep asking, suggesting that I'm not.

Why am I surprised? Because I expected to die long before now.

Fine. This is the last time you'll hear it from me.

I am the Ranger. Believe me or not. You can even lynch me if you like--I have been alive long past my time, by all accounts. Just be aware that if you do kill me, you will only find out what I tried to tell you before.

Cheers.

[Roa_Aoife]

Wow, I leave for 30 minutes and come back to see I'm about to die. I had hoped to give Findeasea more time to defend herself, but if the village lynches an innocent today, we'll be entering into a very dangerous zone. I know I'm innocent, and I'm almost certain Findeasea is an orc.

So,

++Findeasea

[Roa_Aoife]

Zali, I'm sorry if you're offended by my suspicions, but you are a "revealed" gifted who's still living. You can see why that looks extremely questionable. If you are the true protector, and the orcs are just messing with you, then we will find the truth. My only intent is to catch an orc, and if I have to back someone into a corner to do it, then that's what I'll do. Again, I don't intend any offense in this.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Zali, I'm sorry if you're offended by my suspicions, but you are a "revealed" gifted who's still living. You can see why that looks extremely questionable. If you are the true protector, and the orcs are just messing with you, then we know the truth. My only intent is to catch an orc, and if I have to back someone into a corner to do it, then that's what I'll do. Again, I don't intend any offense in this.

I'm sorry if I sounded grumpy... No offence was taken, (I'm rarely offended, and I didn't take anything you were saying as a personal attack). WW games .

I do understand all the suspicion that I'm under from several directions. I see now the Orcs' plan here...I do expect mostly to die tonight, but if they can keep hoodwinking me and making me look suspicious until you all lynch me, I guess they will. In the same position, I'd probably start questioning the strange person who was claiming to be Ranger, as well.

So yeah. I'm off to review the thread.

[Nogrod]

Case Findëasëa - somewhat evil-eyed...

Somehow all of this could be read as a “developement story”. The first day just two posts (one “in character”, the other the vote), quite confusing to say the least, voting Glirdan for no substance...

On the second day she comes to the fore much more secure – and opening in-depht –analysis on how orcs would work

#176
I have been trying to analyze the information posted today and its significance in discovering wereorcs. If I were a wereorc, I would try as hard as possible to make my image separate from that of my fellows in the minds of the other players. This would be beneficial in that if one were to die the others would not be reveled.

In the end goes to vote Jenny as all is well.

On the third day really shows, that she’s got the hang of it. Is considerate and intelligent. The viewpoint still is that of an orc... and she seems to understand, what Jenny thinks, and how she would act. Also insisiting on her interpretation of Jenny’s post – that would make one of the listed “dangerous” an orc (an orc would know, if Jenny kind of slipped by mistake a clean list)

#266
A wereorc would most likely not want to draw attention to any sort of connections that could exist. Jenny seemed in control in both her earlier posts and the ones she made after she was made aware of her impending death. I doubt she would make this kind of move.

I thought it was interesting that she threw more suspicion upon the quiet members of the group. As was discussed earlier, it would make sense if the orcs wanted to throw suspicion upon those in the village with the most contribution, in order to cripple the village and to leave the quiet members to get picked off with little resistance. Jenny’s accusations, therefore, could point towards a loud orc. I know that the statements that Jenny made after learning about her death were meant to confuse and lead us astray, but, given her skill, it would make sense that she put a good deal of thought into her posts so that it would not implicate her fellow orcs.

In the end votes Roa, because believes Jenny’s list includes one orc, and Roa most suspicious (admitting: no good grounds though).

On the fourth day, continues from orc perspective... careful not to suspect anyone (vice versa), but asking us to think about Zali. The rest of the day was spent defending her suspicions over Roa, her interpretation of Jenny’s list (there is one orc in the list of four – namely Roa), and of her belief of my innocence (started to give in a bit just before Naria’s dream). Votes Roa on the basis of Roa turning the discussion away from her own possible guilt.

So what I see somewhat suspicious is her quick turn to be just another person (has been lectured after the first day?) - and so familiar with both the ways the orcs would work, and what kind of person Jenny is!

But very intelligent indeed - after grasping the way this game is played... So very dangerous as an orc!

[Nogrod]

I admit. That was a tough one - and my energies at quite a low level (2.25AM here). I wouldn't never like to vote someone being a newbie - and too smart, but this kind of has the suspicious levels of it...

Comments?

[Naria]

Well I just have time to get on here and vote. Seeing as Fin is higher up on my suspect list then Roa, I will vote for.

++Findeasea

Hope we catch an Orc today!

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

I have no time left--Relatives are here, and I can't devote my full attention to the game today.

So I'm going to vote.

I'm not going to vote for Findeasea, Nogrod, though your post certainly gave me reason to think. I just don't want to get caught into voting for someone because she would be dangerous as an orc--that got Kitanna lynched yesterday.

I'm going to just go with my previous suspicion and vote for Naria. Granted, she came in, described her suspicions, but still, I feel like something isn't sitting quite right.

++Naria

[Nogrod]

Does anyone know, whether Find and Jenny know each other? I'm getting also very wary about this "I doubt she would make this kind of move" and "given her skill" -stuff. She would know, if they had PM'd, otherwise - ragerding this game and Jenny's posts there... probably not being so sure about that - given her apparent intelligence.

[Nogrod]

Sorry. Computer trouble - started jamming. These thing really know when to hit.

++ Findëasëa

Points soon... if comp. works.

[Roa_Aoife]

I hate it when the site goes down.

Nogrod, Fin only has 19 posts total on the downs. 17 of those are in this thread. Extended interaction with Jenny on the Down's isn't possible, and niether have ever mentioned knowing each other outside the downs.

[Grendelien]

I was suspicious of Naria before she revealed Nogrod's innocence, and upon revealing his identity I thought her revelation could be a diversion. However, I began to wonder why, if she were an orc, she would reveal the identity of someone who was under much suspicion himself. It could be that she was protecting the identity of a fellow orc, but I find this highly unlikely. I tend to believe now that Nogrod is innocent. If Naria is an orc, I find it unlikely that she would reveal the identity of an innocent (Nogrod) when he was under suspicion. However, Naria could want to gain some points with innocent villagers. I'll have to think about this more. My suspicion of her has been lowered a bit, so I won't be voting for her tonight.

The points brought up about Celuien in the analyses of her were very interesting. I too must admit that her change in tone is suspicious, but I dont want to vote for her tonight when she's not here to defend herself.

I'm unsure of Findeasea's and Caranlondien's innocence, so I won't vote for them tonight. My suspicion of Roa has not changed, so I am inclined to believe she may be an orc.

++Roa

[Nogrod]

1. Findeasea --> Roa (Roa 1)
2. Sleepy --> Findeasea (Roa 1, Findeasea 1)
3. Celuien --> Roa (Roa 2, Findeasea 1)
4. Caran --> Roa (Roa 3, Findeasea 1)
5. Roa --> Findeasea (Roa 3, Findeasea 2)
6. Naria --> Findeasea (Roa 3, Findeasea 3)
7. Zali --> Naria (Roa 3, Findeasea 3, Naria 1)
8. Nogrod --> Findeasea (Roa 3, Findeasea 4)

And if Roa & Naria turn out to be the wolves, well, then I'm an ***...

[Nogrod]

Updated version...

1. Findeasea --> Roa (Roa 1)
2. Sleepy --> Findeasea (Roa 1, Findeasea 1)
3. Celuien --> Roa (Roa 2, Findeasea 1)
4. Caran --> Roa (Roa 3, Findeasea 1)
5. Roa --> Findeasea (Roa 3, Findeasea 2)
6. Naria --> Findeasea (Roa 3, Findeasea 3)
7. Zali --> Naria (Roa 3, Findeasea 3, Naria 1)
8. Nogrod --> Findeasea (Roa 3, Findeasea 4, Naria 1)
9. Grendelien --> Roa (Roa 4, Findeasea 4, Naria 1)

So as Findëasëa got the vote first, she's the one to go...
If she turns out to be a wolf, the shaman might be wise to look at Grendelien next night. Not because of the last moment vote, but because there seems to be a similar kind of learning pattern there...

EDIT: Bold

[Roa_Aoife]

1. Findeasea --> Roa (Roa 1)
2. Sleepy --> Findeasea (Roa 1, Findeasea 1)
3. Celuien --> Roa (Roa 2, Findeasea 1)
4. Caran --> Roa (Roa 3, Findeasea 1)
5. Roa --> Findeasea (Roa 3, Findeasea 2)
6. Naria --> Findeasea (Roa 3, Findeasea 3)
7. Zali --> Naria (Roa 3, Findeasea 3, Naria 1)
8. Nogord --> Findeasea (Roa 3, Findeasea 4, Naria 1)
9. Grendelien --> Roa (Roa 4, Findeasea 4, Naria 1)

What happens in a tie?

EDIT: Cross posted with both Nogrod's posts

[Nogrod]

The bold in my last post is the reason, why I was so mad at my computer just jamming-jamming-jamming...

I believe, there is another explanation to Jenny's list - and this "deep knowledge" was just unnatural... My reasons for my vote.

[Roa_Aoife]

I don't thin kit was your computer- for about 10 minutes I couldn't reach the Down's either. The site also went down earlier today. Probably server troubles.

[Farael]

Alright, time is up... as Findeasea was the first to reach the fourth vote, she will be the lynchee

And you know what? shes just a poor ordo. Sorry, Findeasea you had a good game =)

Narration coming up in a bit.

[Celuien]

I'm sorry - I've been pressed for time these last few days. And shifting the end of the day later hasn't helped me any.

I'm not an Orc. Please believe me, and try to see what I've been trying to do since Sleepy gave me an opening by declaring me the Shaman. It's for the village's good. Don't really care if it gets me lynched tomorrow, since my more important purpose will have been acheived by then.

Further explanations will have to wait until tomorrow, since I'm probably already risking a crosspost with Farael.

[Farael]

As the day wound down, it was time to cast their votes yet again.

Celuien: There is so few of us left… what if we get the wrong person, again?

Nogrod: Fear not, for I am convinced that Findeasea is an orc!

Findeasea: No I’m not

SleepyRanger: That is EXACTLY what an orc would say!

Grendelien: Keep in mind that it’s also what an innocent would say

Azaelia: Wait!! I think Naria is a wereorc!

Caran: What do you know? I think Roa is a wolf!

Nogrod: Orc

Caran Orc, yes.

In the end, it was decided that Findeasea would be lynched by a small margin. No, it’s not a grammatical error, by a small margin it was decided that Findeasea would be lynched using a terrible torturing device. The small margin.

How this machine worked is so terrible and gruesome that no exact records are kept, but this is what modern paleoelfropologists have been able to determine.

The soon to be lynched individual was put into a box. Not just any box, as this box had tiny little slits through which only something as thin as a sheet of paper would be able to pass through. And that is exactly how it worked. The poor victim was kept there as the villagers angrily ran just about any paper they could find through the slits, causing an unfathomable amount of papercuts. This proved fatal after only a few hours, yet by that time about half of the margins of all the papers would be coated in blood. Hence, the “small margin” name.

In any case, Findeasea was put into the small margin and the villagers took to their task. After many a books had been spent, the trashing and screaming stopped from within the box. Caranlondien opened it and her face went pale. “Findeasea” was just an innocent, like any other of us”. She said.

The villagers found the way to their respective homes and locked themselves in for the night.

There are still 2 wereorcs, a Ranger and a Shaman living.
Now living:
Caranlondien: aspiring harpist
Nogrod: unemployed barber.
Grendelien: village whittler
Celuien:lampwright
Zali: stringer-of-bows
Naria:The grower of magnificent flowers
Sleepy A barrel of apples
Roa_Aoife aspiring ballad writer

Now dead:
FaraelMod: He dyed… erm I mean died.
GlirdanRepentant werewolf : Choked on an apple. No wonder why werewolves are carnivores.
JennyHalluWereorc: Escaped the village, but could not escape the laws of physics.
Dancing Spawn...: Just a merchant: Trapped on a deathly spider’s web.
Kitanna:The town's gate-keeper: Had a lobotomy performed by an angry woodpecker.
Legolas in spandex: Legolass (A movie-Legolas impersonator): Overwhelmed and or frightened into leaving the village after seeing what had happened to Kitanna
Diamond: Simply a normal, very bad stone cutter - scared to death by orcs
Findëasëa: paleo-elf-tropologist: Lynched by a small margin.

[Farael]

...but I have all the PM's in already and so I will post them here as it's unlikely I'll be here for the end of the day in an hour and a half. Please, don't post until then.

No one has died tonight (yaye villagers!!!)

[Nogrod]

I guess it's day already. And I'm off to sleep. But as Farael announced the "result" of the night early, I have had time to see to my first post. I'll be back somewhat later...

So thank’s Farael for revealing the situation ahead of time - and letting me to sleep!

And what news!!!

Great work ranger, just stupendous!

I must admit, that Zali is looking worse and worse every day she stays alive (so sad to say Zali, if you’re an innocent). It might just be the orc-plan – now backfiring really badly. Today, surely a thing to discuss – and the possible real ranger should start to think her position. Ratio now 6:2, so maybe not today, or then yes. We should look at this one closely today.

Secondly: I feel terribly bad about yesterday, giving the decisive vote to lynch Findëasëa. She really played well! But before I start sprinkling ashes over my head, I would like you to consider a couple of things about Roa. For I’m – unhappily – inclined to believe, that we had two innocents in the deathrow yesterday, and so whichever way I would have voted, would have ended in a disaster like this.

I agree with the many of you, that Roa can be seen as suspicious. We all can be seen (my Devil’s advocate –thing should show it). I’ve had my own suspicions of her as well – and I am not wholly conviced about my thoughts, but just that is the reason, why you others should evaluate them too. Roa is a resourceful player, and is a great asset, if innocent. I have mainly two things to believe her innocent (they are kind of intertwined, the first supporting the other – and in that way, the other giving a small boost of credibility to the first one).

Roa innocent?

The first reason.
Look at the ending of DAY1. After famously calling Sleepy a dork, she starts the thing I have thought over and over again.

So after Diamond came out with her quite peppery – and so loveble – defence, there was the following exchange between me and Roa:

Nogrod #73 11.39PM GMT
Diamond!

It's so nice to see you back as your usual self! My suspicions are dropped immediately... for the time being, of course.

Roa #74 11.42PM GMT
She may not last the day Nogrod. I believe she's in the lead for votes.

And there are three minutes between these posts.

Then just four minutes later, Roa updates the voting list (Diamond and Glirdan both having three votes), and says under it (#76):

Diamond reached 3 first, so she's currently the one slated for death.

Three minutes from the last comes the following Roa #79 11.49PM GMT

With 10 minutes left in the day, Nogrod had better get his vote in.

See the following fact: only people who had voted already + me (not-voted yet), had been carrying the discussion for over an hour already. It was only ten minutes to go, and only one non-voter around (me), and Diamond going to be lynched with drawn votes (because of the “first to get the highest”-rule)

So how does this look to you (especially #79)? To me, it looks like someone, who is genuinely worried about Diamond’s future. All Roa’s posts are sent within 7 minutes.

And if she was “genuinely” (based on hunch etc.) worried about Diamond – she isn’t an orc (as Diamond was an ordo). I know, that Roa can be quite crafty and careful player, but this seems to me just too good – as a cover-operation... (and if no-one else has noticed this but me, then it would clearly have been postured in vain...)

The second reason.
Jenny’s list. I have been quite convinced from the moment Jenny wrote that “Goodbye cruel world – and thank’s for all the fish” –letter, that she wasn’t as careful as she might have been. I know, she can be quite jumpy at certain situations. Maybe the posts following the first one were her attempts to repair what she had fumbled already? All the confusion-making stuff as some kind of repentance? Trying to make right what she had already kind of destroyed in a panicky / sentimental rage?

Then the list of dangerous players would be the list of innocents: Spawn, Diamond, me and Roa (three of those already shown).

To add to this speculation, I have been very thoughtful about that vote on Grendelien, and the add on about the

joyful friendship we've been developing.

She also accuses Zali quite openly of betraying her – and Zali is alive still – to all our wonder...

So it might also be, that we are not looking for a wolf among people like Celuien or Roa, but have Zali and Grendelien?

I don’t know. Sounds a bit too simplisistic, but somewhat believable: the pieces fit together, at least. I mean Zali’s living and Roa’s innocence both are kind of explained by Jenny’s list, as it coincides with both.

See to them yourselves, and bring forward points for and against my interpretation..

[Caranlondien]

The Village Times was late in arriving toDay (cough::theDownswasdown::cough), so I haven't been able to go back over the posts since hearing the (quite exciting) news that no one was killed last Night. (Hooray!)

Now, unfortunately, I have to get some sleep, so I'll post my thoughts tomorrow (hopefully I'll have some overnight )

[Naria]

Yay!! Thanks again, Ranger....whomever that may be

I too am getting very worried about why Zali is still alive. I think she may be lying through her rotten little Orc teeth. I mean come on, one night....sure, two nights....maybe, but three nights....tsk, I really doubt that a werecreature would want to carry on wanting to kill villagers and have an obstacle in the way like the Ranger night after night. Yeah, maybe it could have been part of their plan, but I highly doubt that it would go on for this long. I would like to believe that she is the Ranger(and did) but this is just too much to swallow. Since she has already admitted to being the Ranger than it probably won't bother her too much to tell us who she protected last night.


Celuien, if you have something to add please do so toDay....instead of little hints here and there. Those don't help much and in fact they just add to the confusion. It would be great if you could explain this:

It's for the village's good. Don't really care if it gets me lynched tomorrow, since my moreimportant purpose will have been achieved by then.

I know that I am coming off as being rather bold, but I feel that we are running around in circles and will continue to lynch ordos instead of the remaining baddies and that is exactly what they want us to do. Nogrod has some good points and I agree. I don't know about a Zali-Gren duo though, mainly because I want to hear from Zali and give her some benefit of the doubt. But Gren has been sticking out in my mind for a couple of Days now....mostly from the end of the Day comments and her vote placements. I'll wait to hear from them and others before I say more.

[Celuien]

NB: This was written while the ‘Downs was down yesterday, so not all of it is as detailed as I’d like. I’ll write some more about Roa now that I have access to the village records again.

Hurray for the Ranger! A second time!

Nogrod: While possible that Zali is lying about her identity, I still doubt it, despite her longevity as a revealed gifted. Why?

Zali has lived three nights as a revealed gifted. On those four nights, the Orcs attacked
1) Dancing Spawn (nights one and two)
2) Diamond18
3) ?

Now, it is still my belief that Spawn was mistaken for the Shaman on Day 1, and that this was the reason for her being targeted on Night 1, and again on Night 2, when the Orcs knew she could no longer be protected. I’m still unsure why Diamond was killed. As for last night, I think I was the most likely intended victim (for obvious reasons) and was saved by Zali. I admit to appearing very, very Shamanish. Because someone potentially handing out dreams is more dangerous than the Ranger. That would nicely explain both Zali’s surviving the night and the save – I think I’d be a fairly obvious candidate for both death and protection. I really hope that I was the one. It would clear things up immensely today.

By the way, if Zali isn’t telling the truth, today would be a good time for the true Ranger to speak up, considering the ratio of unknowns to wolves (5:2).

If not me, I think it was you, Nogrod. Even if not the Shaman, you’ve been very insightful, and as a now-proven innocent, you make an extremely formidable opponent for the Orcs.

As for Naria, I have my reasons for tending to trust her, although I haven’t dreamed of her. I have my reasons for not saying more. Please bear with me.

As for my own behavior, I know it’s been odd for the past couple of days. But please, humor me for a few hours more. I’ll probably post a full explanation later. But not now, since part of the explanation will depend on whether or not I was the one guarded last night, though I’ll probably explain even if I wasn’t the one.

By dream/Ranger criteria, the last two Orcs are to be found among Celuien, Caran, Roa, Naria or Grendelien. Hopefully, there’s at least one more dream out there to exonerate some of this group.

I know I’m innocent, and, like I said, I have my reasons about Naria (unless something really changes today), so that leaves Caran, Roa, or Grendelien.

I voted for Roa yesterday. This was based largely on what happened with Spawn on day 1. My theorized sequence of events went that Spawn voted for Roa, and was then suspected of being the Shaman and targeted on Night 1, the Orcs being willing to sacrifice one of their number (Roa), to eliminate the Shaman and prevent further incriminating dreams. This continued to neatly explain Spawn’s death on night 2, since her suspicion of Roa waned, and if the Orcs continued to think she was the Shaman, or if they decided to act on the idea that we thought they attacked Spawn the first night in the scenario above, it would actually be less dangerous for Roa since they would now be able to show that Roa couldn’t have been the dream from Shaman-suspect Spawn.


At any rate, I would advocate lynching either Roa, Caran, or Grendelien today. If we make a mistake today, the remaining Orcs will then be identified. And the numbers will go like this:

NOW: 7:2
If incorrect, then
TOMORROW: 5:2
Then we’d know who to get, so we’d end the day at 5:1, start the next day at 4:1 and then win the game.

[Celuien]

Nogrod: Leaving Jenny off that list was purely an oversight on my part. She would have gone into a category of unsures. I wouldn't have been quite so careless to omit her if I were in fact an Orc (and therefore aware that she was one).

I'll now be away for a few hours. If the village comes to a consenus that they want the whole explanation from me today (my strategy is probably running to an end now anyway), I'll give it without waiting for confirmation about last night's events.