Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVII: The Saga Continues to Continue quite Continuously

[Formendacil]

Garin seems to be... almost TOO suspicious today. But maybe I am used to Wolves of such deep cunning that I can only suspect them for being unsuspicious. Which, by the way, would make Spawn the Wolf.

I still harbour a lingering fear regarding Gil, but not one so great as to actually consider voting for him.

Kath.... the very fact that she's gone to Iceland somehow makes me think her innocent, although it's not really an evidence one way or another. But... still... I don't think her guilty.

So, the question is... do I go overboard in my suspicions of thinking Wolves undeniably super-cunning, and so vote Spawn? Or do I, for once, accept that maybe the suspicious person actually is the Wolf...

... vote Garin.

I lean towards the latter.

[Garin]

Well, I'm inclined to go with Kath due to non-participation, even if she can't help it.
++Kath
Spawn of course likes Sauce's analysis, because it is taking votes away from Spawn. I see nothing dramatic in the defference in my postings today and previous postings.
I'm at work now so this is all I can manage really.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Sauce

However, I have come round to the view that our lynchees for today should be Kath and Garin.

***

If you cannot avoid voting in the meantime, please try to vote in a way that still allows a double lynch.

If that is the Judge's decision:

++Garin


Kath - 3 (Gil, Nilp, Garin)
spawn - 1 (Glirdan)
Garin - 1 (spawn)

[Formendacil]

Let's even this up a little...

I'm convinced, insofar as it is possible in this game, that Garin is guilty.

++ Garin

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, I'm back. A little later than expected. Sorry.

Votes so far:

1. Gil-Galad for Kath (Kath-1)
2. Glirdan for spawn (Kath-1, spawn-1)
3. Nilpaurion for Kath (Kath-2, spawn -1)
4. Garin for Kath (Kath-3, spawn-1)
5. Spawn for Garin (Kath-3, spawn-1, Garin-1)
6. Formendacil for Garin (Kath-3, spawn-1, Garin-2)

3 votes to come - SpM, mormegil and Kath.

Garin's vote looks decidedly Wolfish to me.

I don't expect to see Kath here today. Incidentally, I don't expect her to be a Wolf now either, but we are where we are. If there is to be a double lynching, she will be one and either spawn or Garin will be the other.

Still, if you are here Kath, it would be nice to know.

And how about you, morm? Are you here? What are your thoughts? I would like to see a vote from you in the next half hour or so. And my strong recommendation is that you vote for Garin.

[mormegil]

I know not who the wolf is though I am convinced it is not Kath but this is the only way to win.

++Kath

I cannot believe it escaped you that she would not be able to let the Mod know who she would kill if she were a wolf.

I reveal myself now I am Maeglin and I have come back to betray this village just like I did Gondolin. However I have not understood why the wolves have played the way the did. I can only help so much. I flushed out the ranger. I knew she was gifted and reveled that I convinced so many. My next target was Malka but she came forward too soon with too many names. I went to bed hoping the wolves would have slain her that night leaving the door open for their victory. Village do with me what you wish for I care not but know this I will continue to be a hinderance so long as I am alive and I hope that all of you mortals die!

Wolf if you want my opinion kill SpM tonight and stop his meddling. He should have been killed many nights ago.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, that's no surprise. It has been painfully obvious for a while now that morm is the Cobbler. Shame that you unwittingly managed to get TGWBS killed (as it was his determined pursuit of you that led malka to dream of him).

And your vote is no surprise either. I suspected that it might come to this.

It would be funny if Kath was the Wolf and you have just condemned her. You think that she wouldn't leave instructions, or somehow get access to the village, if she was, though she be in the icy north?

Somehow, however, I suspect that she is not.

So, unless she turns up in the nick of time and votes for Garin, victory depends upon you, my fellow innocents. For the Wolf will surely take the accursed Cobbler's advice and put me out of my misery tonight.

Thoughts on how you might play it tomorrow coming up in a mo ...

[The Saucepan Man]

OK, my fellow innocents. Victory is still within our grasp. Mormegil has been rash in his eagerness to reveal his wicked plotting.

Assuming that Kath does not arrive, there will be no double lynching today and she will die. She probably isn't the Wolf.

I will be cruelly ripped apart tonight.

So, tomorrow, that leaves:

Hunter: Glirdan
Innocents: Formendacil, Nilp
Cobbler: Mormegil
Either Wolf or innocent: Gil-Galad, dancing spawn and Garin

A double lynching is probably out of the question. It would be too easy for the Wolf and the Cobbler to turn it to their benefit. And you cannot guarantee to find the Wolf.

My recommendation, therefore, is that you take a risk and lynch Garin. A risk, yes. But a calculated one. Garin, a self-confessed gambler, will appreciate that.

I am almost certain that Gil is not the Wolf. If he is, then he deserves to win, either for his cunning masquerade or for his simple, blind luck.

Spawn might still be the Wolf. If she is, she is mighty clever. For she has concealed it remarkably well. So well, in fact that she deserves an Oscar.

But I am pretty much convinced that Garin is the Wolf. It was pretty likely Kath would not be here today and that the Cobbler would hold his vote. In those circumstances, an innocent Garin would have voted for spawn, thus ensuring the continued likelihood of a double lynching. His vote for Kath was the best possible vote for a Wolf. In my view, it condemns him.

The more that I think about it, the clearer it is. Kill him tomorrow. Please.

And finally, a token gesture (or, perhaps, a chance of victory today if Kath does arrive).

++GARIN

[The Saucepan Man]

In the unlikely event that Garin is not the Wolf, you still have one more day after tomorrow, and a 50:50 chance, of nailing the fiend (provided that there is no double lynching tomorrow).

But I tend to think that will not be necessary.

[Garin]

I actually thought Formendacil was the cobbler, though I guess Morm wanting to vote for a known innocent was bad. I didn't think he would seriously go along with it.
Thanks for your participation Sauce, I know the wolves usually don't let you live this long.
See you other villagers on the other side and I'll try to assuage your concerns.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Garin

Thanks for your participation Sauce, I know the wolves usually don't let you live this long.

Yes, I was wondering why you did.

Originally Posted by Garin

See you other villagers on the other side and I'll try to assuage your concerns.

I sincerely hope that your efforts will be in vain, foul beast of Udun.

[Meneltarmacil]

Villagers, please cease posting. A death scene will be posted in a moment.

[Meneltarmacil]

The villagers hauled Kath off to the gallows.

"We've caught a wolf; may we lynch her?" asked Nilpaurion Felagund.

"Lynch her! Lynch her!" the villagers shouted.

"How do you know she's a wolf?" The Saucepan Man inquired of them.

"She looks like one!" mormegil responded.

Their conversation continued for quite a while until the villagers had grown impatient. They cut The Saucepan Man off just as he was saying "And what do you lynch apart from wolves?" and put the noose around Kath's neck.

"I'm warning you," the paranormal investigator said, "If you kill me here, I'll come back from the grave and haunt you all."

The warning had no effect. The villagers lynched her anyway, killing another Ordinary Villager.

Living:
mormegil- Elven smith
Garin- Truffle hunter with a half a dozen pigs and no social manners
Nilpaurion Felagund- Escaped thrall from Tol-in-Gaurhoth
dancing spawn of ungoliant- Florist
The Saucepan Man- Earnest and learned young man of the law
Gil-Galad- Shape-Analyst
Glirdan- Crazy guy down the street
Formendacil- Village historian

Dead:
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Speared by wolves on Night 1
AbercrombieOfRohan (Ordinary Villager): Treed and crushed by villagers on Day 1
Aiwendil (Ordinary Villager): Crushed by a tree chopped down by the werewolves onto his house on Night 2
Shelob (Ordinary Villager): Hung by villagers on Day 2
Valier (Ordinary Villager): Coconutted by wolves on Night 3
WaynetheGoblin (Ordinary Villager): Hung on a +9 Rope of Lynching by villagers on Day 3
Cailín (Ranger): Drowned by wolves on Night 4
Naria (Werewolf): Fought to death by villagers and pigs on Day 4
Márcolië Lamen (Ordinary Villager): Cooked into spaghetti and eaten by wolves on Night 5
the guy who be short (Werewolf): Became the wolf who be lynched by villagers on Day 5
malkatoj (Seer): Blown up by wolf on Night 6
Kath (Ordinary Villager): Almost Monty Pythoned, but impatiently hung by villagers on Day 6

Wolves: 1
Villagers: 7

It is now Night 7. Names are needed from the Wolf and Hunter.

[Meneltarmacil]

When the villagers assembled in the town square, they noticed that Formendacil was not among them.

As they entered his house, they noticed that all the bookshelves in his study had been knocked over. Formendacil lay dead on the floor, crushed under several tons of Numenorean history chronicles, translations of ancient Elvish texts, and other such things.

Formendacil's desk had a single sheet of parchment on it, on which he had written part of a volume titled "Tol-in-Gaurhoth: The True story of Sauron's Isle." The dull, boring descriptions of discrepencies between the Doriath documents and the traditional Numenorean version had stopped abruptly in mid-page and someone else had written:

"Unfortunately, the historian studying these events was mauled by a werewolf at the moment he was writing this. However, he was a little too stringy for the wolf's tastes."

Another Ordinary Villager had been taken by the wolf.

Living:
mormegil- Elven smith
Garin- Truffle hunter with a half a dozen pigs and no social manners
Nilpaurion Felagund- Escaped thrall from Tol-in-Gaurhoth
dancing spawn of ungoliant- Florist
The Saucepan Man- Earnest and learned young man of the law
Gil-Galad- Shape-Analyst
Glirdan- Crazy guy down the street

Dead:
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Speared by wolves on Night 1
AbercrombieOfRohan (Ordinary Villager): Treed and crushed by villagers on Day 1
Aiwendil (Ordinary Villager): Crushed by a tree chopped down by the werewolves onto his house on Night 2
Shelob (Ordinary Villager): Hung by villagers on Day 2
Valier (Ordinary Villager): Coconutted by wolves on Night 3
WaynetheGoblin (Ordinary Villager): Hung on a +9 Rope of Lynching by villagers on Day 3
Cailín (Ranger): Drowned by wolves on Night 4
Naria (Werewolf): Fought to death by villagers and pigs on Day 4
Márcolië Lamen (Ordinary Villager): Cooked into spaghetti and eaten by wolves on Night 5
the guy who be short (Werewolf): Became the wolf who be lynched by villagers on Day 5
malkatoj (Seer): Blown up by wolf on Night 6
Kath (Ordinary Villager): Almost Monty Pythoned, but impatiently hung by villagers on Day 6
Formendacil (Ordinary Villager): Crushed by falling books due to wolf on Night 7

Wolves: 1
Villagers: 6

It is now Day 7. Villagers may post.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, there's a shocker and no mistake. I really did not expect to be here today.

Then again ...

Originally Posted by Garin

Thanks for your participation Sauce, I know the wolves usually don't let you live this long.
See you other villagers on the other side and I'll try to assuage your concerns.

How convenient that Garin "assumed" that I would be killed, yet here I am still.

He will, no doubt, attempt to argue that, if he was the Wolf, then he obviously would have killed me, given that I am so convinced of his guilt. I'm not going to buy that, Garin, so don't even bother.

I stand by this:

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

I am almost certain that Gil is not the Wolf. If he is, then he deserves to win, either for his cunning masquerade or for his simple, blind luck.

Spawn might still be the Wolf. If she is, she is mighty clever. For she has concealed it remarkably well. So well, in fact that she deserves an Oscar.

But I am pretty much convinced that Garin is the Wolf. It was pretty likely Kath would not be here today and that the Cobbler would hold his vote. In those circumstances, an innocent Garin would have voted for spawn, thus ensuring the continued likelihood of a double lynching. His vote for Kath was the best possible vote for a Wolf. In my view, it condemns him.

It is clear in my mind what we must do today. Ignore the tiresome Cobbler morm ( ) and hang the odious lupine Garin from the highest tree in the village.

[mormegil]

I say we lynch SpM he's far too lupine in my opinion.

[Garin]

I argue that, if I was the Wolf, then I obviously would have killed Sauce, given that he is so convinced of my guilt.

[The Saucepan Man]

Much as I would love to hang out chewing the fat with you guys (Formendacil's fat in your case, Garin ), I think I shall wait until those with less lyncanthropic sympathies arrive, if you don't mind.

Then perhaps we can hang you both out.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

You . . . you're still alive!

Hmmm . . . so it's Garin, then.

If it's not him, I say we lynch Gil-galad tomorrow.

I am still convinced of spawn's innocent. If she turns out to be a Werewolf, she will receive congratulations from me . . . followed by a cold, long, disapproving silence.

That means, if you're a Werewolf, spawn, admit it now, and spare yourself the heartache.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Hmmm . . . so it's Garin, then.

I reckon so, Nilp.

If he was innocent, don't you think that he would be making more of an effort to find the Wolf? The same might be said of his contributions yesterday.

If he's not a Wolf ... well, tomorrow's another day (and I shall eat my pans ).

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nilp

If it's not him, I say we lynch Gil-galad tomorrow.

Looking back, I see that mormegil was pressing for Gil to be the other double lynchee yesterday. He doesn't know for sure who the Wolf is, but this suggests that he doesn't regard Gil as his Wolfish friend.

So you'd better hope that Garin is the Wolf, Nilp ...

I now have little doubt that he is.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

We'll get this Werewolf. I didn't escape the dungeons of Tol-in-Gaurhoth to be devoured by a foul beast of Sauron.

YOU WON'T GET THIS SON OF FINROD!!!

I'll hold my vote for now, to await future developments. I shall return in seven hours or so.

[Glirdan]

Well, Sauce, this is a great surprise yet a great relief as well. I'm glad that you are still here my friend. Glad inded!! However, it's still a sad thing that Form is gone. I shall miss him and his confusing ways.

As for whom to, lynch, well, I think it best be out of the two whom we've had trouble with from the get go: Gil or Garin.

I will once again hold off my vote as long as possible. However, I will still have to vote within the next two hours. Let's get this evil lupine!!

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Well, Sauce, this is a great surprise yet a great relief as well.

As much a surprise to me, I can assure you. But no particular relief. I had rather hoped to be put out of my misery.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

As for whom to, lynch, well, I think it best be out of the two whom we've had trouble with from the get go: Gil or Garin.

I would strongly urge you to go for Garin. All of us innocents need to make sure, as far as we can, that we vote for the same person. Gil's vote cannot be relied upon, I fear, and I would rather not give the Wolf/Cobbler combo any chance of influencing the voting.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Looking back, I see that mormegil was pressing for Gil to be the other double lynchee yesterday. He doesn't know for sure who the Wolf is, but this suggests that he doesn't regard Gil as his Wolfish friend. (SpM)

Well, it could be that he's confusing is with a true double-bluff--he suspects Gil to be a Werewolf, says it out loud, then declares he's a Cobbler. Brilliant. We think Gil's innocent.

I'm not saying Gil-galad is a Werewolf, mind you, but he's not in the clear.

After Garin is hung, and if he is revealed to be our last tormentor, then he'll be in the clear.

[Glirdan]

Well, considering there's not much disscussion to do, I will cast my vote.

++Garin

If he's not the Wolf, then I suggest a double lynch tomorrow between Gil and Spawn, if our Cobbler will allow it.

[Garin]

Nothing makes me look more guilty than Sauce surviving. It is too obvious. The wolves have been playing this game all along. I always look like the wolf, this is the first village in which I made it past the second day.
I'm am likely doomed, but you should consider others as well. I was doomed yesterday after wishing Sauce well.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Garin

Nothing makes me look more guilty than Sauce surviving. It is too obvious. The wolves have been playing this game all along.

No, my fiend. You have been playing that game all along.

Answer me one question, if you don't mind. Why did you not vote for spawn instead of Kath yesterday? It would have carried with it a much better chance of achieving the double lynch that we had all agreed upon. The Cobbler might still have frustrated it, but it would have been a game of nerves between him and me. Instead, your vote made it much easier for the Cobbler to prevent the double lynch.

[Gil-Galad]

Originally Posted by mormegil

I say we lynch SpM he's far too lupine in my opinion.

Malka, our seer, has already deemed Saucey of his Innocence... thats wolfish of you Morm too try to convict Saucey... even cobblerish...


Mormegil = Cobbler

Garin = Wolf


sounds rahter simple, morm is trying to call Sauce off of attacking Garin...

[Garin]

Sauce, within a day I had gone from a position where innocents such as you and Nilp thought me innocent to where I was attracting suspicion. I blame my tongue for thinking I was in the clear for the day. I showed my personality, which I guess is sarcastic, flippant and wolvish. I had said earlier that I was leaning towards Kath but that I would follow your lead. I wasn't sure who to vote for and the hour was getting late and once again suspicion was building against me.

[Garin]

Previously cross-posted with Gil
Gil do you read the posts or are you playing dumb?

[Glirdan]

Gil do you read the posts or are you playing dumb?

Thank you for saying exactly what I was going to say.

Seriously Gil, what are you playing at?

[The Saucepan Man]

Garin, I don't believe a word of it. It was a poor choice of a vote for an innocent, and I credit you with more sense than that.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Seriously Gil, what are you playing at?

Relax, he can be lynched tomorrow if needs be. Personally, I think that Gil is being Gil. He's probably in shock that he has survived this far ...

I remain pretty much convinced that Garin is the Wolf and firmly believe that he should be lynched today.

(Of course, if spawn is the Wolf, I'm gonna be doing some serious self-kicking. )

I'm off for now. See y'all later.

[Gil-Galad]

too be honset, i bleieve in Sauceys words, so i'll probably have to vote for... uhh... blast i forgot... oh yeah Garin!




++Garin



i'm pretty sure your right there Saucey, and with hope you are

[Garin]

Garin, I don't believe a word of it. It was a poor choice of a vote for an innocent, and I credit you with more sense than that.

Sauce, I might not have the head for numbers that you do and don't think you should credit me with much sense. It is obvious I can say nothing to convince you.
I had initially stated my inclination to vote for Kath and if any villager had warned me not to I would not have. Besides weren't people thinking Spawn innocent?
Last post for awhile, I will tidy up my hut.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Gil-Galad

Malka, our seer, has already deemed Saucey of his Innocence... thats wolfish of you Morm too try to convict Saucey... even cobblerish...


Mormegil = Cobbler

Garin = Wolf


sounds rahter simple, morm is trying to call Sauce off of attacking Garin...

If for not other reason

++Gil-Galad

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Heh, I'm almost tempted to follow you there, morm.

But no.

Good-bye, Garin. You have more luck in having the juicy roles than I. Too bad . . . I would have made a good Werewolf.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Glad to see that you're still alive, Sauce. You don't have to eat your pans nor kick yourself on my account, I assure you.

Originally Posted by mormegil

If for not other reason

++Gil-Galad

Originally Posted by Nilp

I am still convinced of spawn's innocent. If she turns out to be a Werewolf, she will receive congratulations from me . . . followed by a cold, long, disapproving silence.

I have a feeling that's an empty threat, m'dear. I'm glad I don't have to find out if I am right, though.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

The Cobbler has already voted. We could still do a double-lynch.

Votes:

Garin - 2 (Glirdan, Gil)
Gil-galad - 1 (morm)

Garin's vote (if he is a Wolf) can still upset this, though.

An indicator would be if he withholds his vote, waiting for the others.

Thoughts?

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Never mind the double-lynch today. I trust dancing spawn. If Garin isn't a Werewolf--I've very little doubt he is--we can still lynch Gil-galad tomorrow.

I have a feeling that's an empty threat, m'dear. (spawn )

You called my bluff.