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#361 |
Beloved Shadow
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I'm here getting caught up. In my skim I saw enough to see that I need to ready VERY carefully.
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#362 | |||
Beloved Shadow
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This is tough... Lottie- if you don't mind me asking, if one of Amandil's line were to battle rodents, what sort would it be? (I realize that looks like a stupid question, but if you or someone else responds in a certain way to it, it will really help me get a bead on things.) Quote:
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Hmmm.... (still reading)
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#363 | ||
Beloved Shadow
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You know- I'm going to side with Lottie on this. I'm not saying I believe her necessarily, but if there's any chance this is true then I definitely want to see reactions... (still reading)
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#364 | |
Beloved Shadow
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Okay- pretend for a moment that Lottie is telling the truth. That means Elendil is still alive and knows precisely who a dream target was. We're getting down to the wire here so it's also possible both Elendil and the other Gifted might reveal, which would narrow the potential lynch field by a LOT, particularly with the Amandil info-holder removing himself from consideration. So- I think what that means is that Lottie may be forced to tell the truth about her dream even if she's a KM, if you follow me. For if she lies, then it would rule out both her AND her dream as a KM, thus reducing the potential KMs in the village to 2 when in fact there are 3 still alive. Thus KM-Lottie's only hope of survival would be to sell out her packmate and hope that when the final day arrives she is given the benefit of the doubt versus whoever the other candidate is. Does that make sense? In other words, I'm saying even if we choose to believe Lottie we aren't necessarily agreeing that she's innocent. I just feel that it's important to keep this in perspective.
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#365 | |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
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Quote:
EDIT: x'd with a Phantom
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#366 |
Beloved Shadow
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And now that Nerwen and Lottie have shown their faces, Steve is the only other person who potentially could contest Inzil's claim to possess Amandil information.
Steve- post as soon as you can letting us know if you did or did not receive information from Amandil. And now thinking of the Amandil information in light of Lottie's claim- if she's legit then Inzil in fact knows the identity of Elendil rather than Isildur or Anarion, which really ought to give him a much different view of things if he rereads the thread. If she's telling the truth then we all ought to be envious of Inzil- as he's the only one with a true hope of pinning down what's going on... (A deserved shout-out to the Moddess, I think. This is a fascinating game!)
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#367 | ||
Gruesome Spectre
Join Date: Dec 2000
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#368 |
Beloved Shadow
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Still can't trust Lottie's claim 100% obviously, but I've finally made the obvious logical leap to explain why neither Brin nor I was chosen.
Because Elendil knew Boro wasn't Elendil!! (In hindsight- duh.) Given that fact he had to realize there was a 50/50 chance that he was now operating without protection from the Ranger! Thus he felt especially compelled not to choose Brin or I for the dream in case we died. And he couldn't guarantee Shasta would be the one to die. Honestly I was thinking I was slightly more likely to bite it than him, as the KMs might be paranoid about his Ordo-info power. Thus to avoid the situation altogether Elendil selects Lottie. There are a few reason he could've picked her, but in the end perhaps it doesn't even matter at all. As I explained earlier, given the population constraints of this village a KM might feel forced to sell out a packmate. Let's walk through this... There are 9 of us. Let's pretend for a moment that Inzil is confirmed innocent. That's 3 confirmed. Then let's say Anarion/Isildur reveals successfully. That's 4 confirmed. Then Inzil says who Elendil is and Elendil says he's right. That's 5 confirmed. Then Lottie reveals an innocent in her dream. If they're both innocent then that's 7 confirmed. But that only leaves 2 villagers to be 3 KMs. So either Lottie or her target would have to be a KM. If it's only her target, then she's telling the truth. If she is the KM herself, then she has to lie about it (but of course we'll find out the truth the moment we do the lynch, then it's game over for the KMs the next day). But if both are KMs then Lottie can throw the other to the village and try to win the game for the KMs by getting the other two unknowns lynched before her. What I'm saying is, if the dream is legit then most probably Lottie does indeed have a KM for us to lynch regardless of Lottie's own affiliation.
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#369 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
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Extremely brief thoughts on the whole gifted situation.
It's clear we have two gifteds who have been eliminated: Boro and Shasta. If Dun is lying, Amandil is still alive (unless someone else got information when Boro died and hasn't said anything, which doesn't seem terribly likely). I'm assuming that if Dun is lying, he's evil. I can think of a possible reason he might lie as a goodie, but I'm going to withhold that theory for the moment and see how the Day goes. If Lottie is lying, our seer is dead, and she's a wolf. Plain and simple. We can't be sure whether her "dream" is an innocent or a packmate, but her role will be certain. If Lottie and Dun are both telling the truth, then Shasta was clearly Amandil and Boro was either the ranger or Isildur. For obvious reasons, of the two options, I'd prefer it to be Isildur.... Hopefully I'll finish re-reading the thread before bed. Either way, I'll put up a list before I crash. Relatively certain Morsul is evil, but I don't know about the rest of you at all. Especially Lottie and Dun, at least right now. >.< EDIT: x'd with a Phantom
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#370 |
Beloved Shadow
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Okay, so- given that no one has challenged Inzil and given my previous post that demonstrates the way a KM would be forced to give up a KM etc. I'm actually going to go ahead and recommend that no one should be voting for Inzil or Lottie today unless given the go-ahead after careful consideration by the trusted Brin and I. If you disbelieve one of them it doesn't necessarily follow that the best course of action is to vote against them. The last thing we need is people posting hasty reactionary votes that spread out enough to allow the KMs to get their candidate lynched.
(edit: remove extra word)
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#371 | |
The Sweetest Spoiler
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#372 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
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Also, whoa. Did anybody else just get a weird error?
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#373 | ||
Beloved Shadow
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What if that happens at 10 minutes until deadline tomorrow? Heh heh...
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#374 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
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Bite me.
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#375 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
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Will not lynch at present (or rather, at all):
Phantom Brinn Sally Will not lynch toDay: Dun Lottie Can be persuaded to vote: Nerwen Manwe Steve Would like to vote: Morsul
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#376 |
Beloved Shadow
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Heh- this has been an interesting end to the day, anyway.
![]() Only a few times can I recall bombarding my brain with potential scenarios like this. But seriously, I need to shut it down for the night. Still not back to full health, so I need some shut-eye. Remember not to do anything hasty. Inzil still has a card to play and we haven't talked to Steve at all, and Lottie has yet to reveal her card... Unfortunately now I feel like probably everyone is waiting for those things to happen so that they don't give away their leanings prematurely. Thus I think I'm within my rights to request that everyone make a lynch list of the three people they want lynched the most. And if the remaining Gifteds are out there, could you please take a close look and let me know if I've done this correctly? ![]()
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#377 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
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I'm finally off to bed, and I'm uncertain when I'll return. It may be in a few hours, it may not be until after lunchtime here (eight hours or so before DL). In any case, please do not vote until I return unless you absolutely must. I've made an observation, one which I'll share once both Dun and Lottie have revealed their information. It will be worth your patience.
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#378 |
Wisest of the Noldor
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Just dropping in to say that I *will* have to vote fairly early, or else not at all.
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#379 |
Flame Imperishable
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Whoa, whoa, whoa. Ok, I'm going to need to reread this all again more slowly, but here are my thoughts.
Firstly, no, I'm not claiming to have gotten an Amandil dream. This really leaves three options:
For Lottie, my thoughts are similar. It's either KM-on-KM or genuine, I'd think. So we might as well go along with it for now.
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#380 |
Flame Imperishable
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No, it makes perfect sense. The most obvious choice for a kill would be phantom, so Elendil couldn't pick him. But then, the KMs know that and probably thought that Anarion was still alive. So then they might pick Shasta. But his gift means knowledge, so it would be a bad idea to kill him. So that leaves Brinn as the one to be killed. So, Elendil couldn't risk any of the three and just chose someone he found innocent. Or you could be a KM handing in one of your fellows.
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#381 |
Flame Imperishable
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Will be back later, with more thoughts.
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#382 | |
Wisest of the Noldor
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Quote:
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#383 |
Wisest of the Noldor
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Anyone around?
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#384 | |
The Werewolf's Companion
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EDIT: xed with Nerwen. Hi there!
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#385 | |
Reflection of Darkness
Join Date: Jun 2002
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Okay, if Elendil was assuming that Anarion was Boro, I can see why he might not pick phantom or me. But why Lottie? She did seem on the more innocent side to me, but there's no way to be sure. And really, what is the bigger risk: sending a dream to a known innocent with the possibility they could die and no information is revealed? Or sending the dream to an unknown who could use that information to manipulate the village should they turn out evil? I have to be at work for most of toDay, but I will be back for the last one to two hours before deadline.
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#386 |
Beloved Shadow
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All right- that settles it. Inzil is unchallenged. Good. I'm here only for about 45 minutes then I'm leaving, but I'll be back after a couple hours. No worries.
And Lottie is back. I do hope she's reading everything carefully, as I still could use some help figuring things out....
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#387 | |
The Werewolf's Companion
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Quote:
Also, as to your question from earlier - I can't make heads nor tails of it. Sorry. EDIT: Wolfie, KM, same thing.
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#388 |
Beloved Shadow
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How about post #376 then, Lottie. Does anything leap out at you about it after looking at it again for a bit?
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#389 |
The Werewolf's Companion
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I'm sorry. Nothing.
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#390 |
Beloved Shadow
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Well crap. That ruins my theory on why Elendil potentially trusted you...
So now, let me just ask- were you trying to accomplish anything in particular at all when you made your very first post at the beginning of the game?
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#391 |
The Werewolf's Companion
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I was not. I'm just an ordo - again, sorry I have to ruin any nice theories you might have.
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#392 |
Beloved Shadow
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Well, it was a stretch I suppose. Bleh... That means I still can't be certain which Gifteds are actually alive.
When I show you after the game what I thought you were doing in that first post, you're going to laugh, because there's actually 3 potential clues there. Just shows you can find anything if you're looking for it.
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#393 |
Wisest of the Noldor
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Ah, now I get it. Squirrels, right, tp?
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#394 |
Beloved Shadow
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Yeah, squirrels. Not to mention "sneaking in the back way", as in Isildur's famous rescue of the seed of Nimloth.
And speaking of botany, her first four paragraphs spell out H-O-R-T which is an abbreviation used in horticulture..... I thought this Elendil dream was finally making sense. ![]()
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#395 |
The Werewolf's Companion
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Oh! Right.
![]() ![]() So! Wolf time? I have to leave soon - shopping day - so should I reveal the name now or when I get back (in a few hours)? EDIT: xed with tp. Um...nope, didn't mean any of that! I did notice the HORT in your post, though, but decided it didn't mean anything because, really, HORT? What could that mean? *facepalm*
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#396 |
Beloved Shadow
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Well honestly I don't think anyone is going to do squat until they hear who you're accusing. Plus we need to give your "KM" a chance at defense in case you're a KM and they can successfully prove they are in fact Gifted etc.
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#397 | |
The Werewolf's Companion
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++Nerwen Have fun!
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#398 |
Beloved Shadow
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No, hold on...
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#399 |
Beloved Shadow
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Crap. My fault. I should've demanded that Isildur/Anarion reveal first so that your target couldn't claim it after the fact. Ugh...
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#400 |
Beloved Shadow
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Well, that particular choice is... nice... and convenient...
Nerwen- you have the floor now obviously. The rest of you- no knee-jerk reactions, please. Let's hear everyone out and let everyone give their take.
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