Werewolf LXXXI: Under the Misty Mountains

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Just a quick point- I do not necessarily support giving voting power today to the people most likely to be innocent, particularly if they are likely innocent because they've already proven themselves with their vote as a rep. I would like to see new blood for the most part, while we have time. It will be more important at the end to hand power to the sure thing. Right now let's try and give others a chance in hopes that a couple of others can prove themselves as well, giving us a better chance of having someone trustworthy left alive at the finish.

I strongly agree with this.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Wilwa's latest comes across as highly defensive.

Right, defensive = evil, sorry, I forgot that as an innocent I should have no desire to remain alive.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

1. He's an Elf. Simple.
2. He's not an Elf, but, in direct contradiction of what she says here, she was confident of being able to manipulate him.
3. He's not an Elf, but she believed him to be the Unknown Orc, who had already decided to go over to the Elves (denies this here and here).

The third one is actually not a possibility, since the Unknown Orc only chose their side this past Night.

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

Anyway this Phantom vs. Nerwen business is starting make me feel sick and I have given up on taking proper notes. . . Is this a delusional power struggle or simply a massive case of over analysing each other?

Personally I am of the opinion that if a seer was to reveal his or hers true identity on the basis on a bluff like yesterday, then they deserve to get lynched for being bloody stupid.

Yes the Phantoms actions are often weird and sometimes makes you want to crush your own skull with a sledgehammer, but that is just something you have to get used to. Personally I do not believe half his tales about how cunning he is, but I don't find him overly suspicious and I definitely do not see it as being beneficial to spend the entire day fighting him.

I'm going to say a massive case of over analysing each other. And I agree with everything else you said. I really don't want this to take up the rest of the Day, it was a bluff, clearly, and it makes more sense to be an innocent bluff rather than a guilty one.

And I actually think that Lottie turning up guilty does make Sally look a bit better (though not all better, because her attributing Lottie's death to Phantom is weird, since he didn't vote and seemed to actually have been leaning towards a Boro vote (and may have voted him instead, if Izzy hadn't of voted)).

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Wilwa

The third one is actually not a possibility, since the Unknown Orc only chose their side this past Night.

I know that. That's why I said "has already decided". Meaning that he could have decided to go over to the wolves on Day One, even before making a formal decision. Lottielf went to some trouble to discount this possibility, so it may be that's exactly what she thought was happening.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

I'm going to say a massive case of over analysing each other. And I agree with everything else you said. I really don't want this to take up the rest of the Day, it was a bluff, clearly, and it makes more sense to be an innocent bluff rather than a guilty one.

Listen, my only intention here is make some kind of sense of the phantom-engima. If I keep poking at him, it's because he keeps thrashing madly when poked at– which naturally makes me wonder. I do not think it "makes more sense as an innocent bluff"– I've said why. I agree it shouldn't be the only thing we talk about, though.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

And I actually think that Lottie turning up guilty does make Sally look a bit better (though not all better, because her attributing Lottie's death to Phantom is weird, since he didn't vote and seemed to actually have been leaning towards a Boro vote (and may have voted him instead, if Izzy hadn't of voted)).

Why do you think it makes her look better, Wilwa? I don't see that at all, myself.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Yes Wilwa's post explaining her motives was rather defensive, but I don't see this as a problem. I have often seen ordos becoming extremely defensive and this particular post seems rather innocent.

Maybe I am biased, because I share a few of Wilwa's views, like double lynch an al right alternative to a single lynch.


Also I should probably mention that even though I would love to receive a mandate from the masses, today is not a good day for me to be a representative. . . Unless you want a representative who show up drunk and makes a more or less random vote.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

Yes Wilwa's post explaining her motives was rather defensive, but I don't see this as a problem. I have often seen ordos becoming extremely defensive and this particular post seems rather innocent.

Maybe I am biased, because I share a few of Wilwa's views, like double lynch an al right alternative to a single lynch.

While a double-lynch does increase the chance of getting a wolf, it almost amounts to writing off at least one innocent, since the odds are so much against bagging two wolves at once. And often you just ending up killing two innocents. So that's why they're unpopular. Nonetheless, I think the risk is acceptable on Day One in a large village– no, I don't see Wilwa's suggestion as evil.

Her defence toDay does seem a bit too jittery to me, though.

[A Little Green]

Not alarming (I hope there is no elves here because that would make me stupid; knowing how easily I am fooled, I'd be inclined to guess one here anyway )
Foley - Just such good vibes from her. I'm very surprised if she's an elf.
Legate - Doesn't worry me too much. Feels genuine in his wishy-washiness, an elf I think would be more.. polished?
Lommy - She felt quite innocent to me even before the Lottie-vote. Hats off if she's an elf.
Nog - From the little I've seen I'm not too concerned.
Phantom - Hats off if he's an elf. I'm pretty convinced he is not. It's not only because of the "I'm the seer" -stunt, but also because of the general feel of his posts.
Rune - Again, such good vibes.
Shasta - I find myself agreeing with him so much that it borders on scary. And while I know he has fooled me brilliantly before (I recall promising, at least twice, never to trust him again) I'd be very surprised if he's an elf this time.
Vanilwa - Her defence seemed genuine, and I just generally like her.

Under the radar (Not surprised if there are one or two elves here, hopefully not three)
Celuien - I'd love a closer look, I'm feeling vaguely concerned right now but couldn't tell why.
Glirdy - Just quite frankly no idea. I'd love a closer look at him too.
Kath - Too little to go on.
Mira - I don't remember anything she's said, apart from voting phantom for rep. Somehow I doubt a Miraelf would have done that after Lottielf, especially if Sally is an elf too, but then again one can never be sure.
Steve - No read whatsoever. Might deserve a closer look too.
Zil - I've never known how to read him, and apparently still don't.

Makes me bang my head against the wall (I think there's at least one elf here)
Nerwen - Not necessarily because I find her elvish, though I wouldn't put that past her. Mainly because half her posts scream "Elf!" and the other half "Orc!"
Sally - Has been acting fishy. Like, very fishy. It's not only her hiding behind phantom yesterDay, but also her toDay's post (I quoted that in my previous one). I'm surprised if she isn't an elf.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Why do you think it makes her look better, Wilwa? I don't see that at all, myself.

Well the way Lottielf voted for Phantom so early in the Day it almost seems like something she would have talked to the other SoE about during the Night, so for another SoE to also do it just seems strange. Also if Sally is an elf and voted like that, I don't know why her fellow elf would come on and vote the same right after, they must have known that would draw way too much attention to themselves, and I don't see them doing that. Like I said though, it doesn't make me feel fantastic about Sally, but I would still be a little surprised if she turned out to be an Elf.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

While a double-lynch does increase the chance of getting a wolf, it almost amounts to writing off at least one innocent, since the odds are so much against bagging two wolves at once. And often you just ending up killing two innocents. So that's why they're unpopular. Nonetheless, I think the risk is acceptable on Day One in a large village– no, I don't see Wilwa's suggestion as evil.

Her defence toDay does seem a bit too jittery to me, though.

I am completely aware of the dangers of the double lynch, but I do find it refreshing that there are other people than me who do not shun them as if they where plague infested.

About Sally, I am not quite sure what to make of her. I do think there is merit to Wilwa's thoughts, it would be very bold of two Elves to act in the manner Lottie and Sally did. So it does seem unlikely that Sally is an elf, but it is of course not impossible that SoE is extremely gutsy.

I will suply a full list of thoughts latter.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Again: what do you now think Lottie was up to, yesterDay, and why did you appear to trust her so completely, until late in the Day?

Again: why did you claim to be the Seer?

As for the seer bit, I would have done the same thing. In fact I did, last game, in order to save Skip. But I usually wouldn't do that if I didn't think the seer was in danger, or if I didn't have a darn good reason otherwise. So I don't know.

I suspect Phantom's just being very tricksy again. I do want to know why he didn't vote though, which I've likely missed because I'm still not totally awake. >.<

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Which had nothing to do with Phantom - I don't know why you're attributing it to him. Every single post you've made today strikes me as wolvish, dear Sally.

I've only made the one post toDay, pet. Remember, the post where I said "I was ill but we got a wolf, yay!"? That one? How is that suspicious exactly?

Originally Posted by Shasticle

Also, does anyone else notice that any time someone questions Phantom too much, he ends up thinking they're a baddie? Nerwen has made several good points about your play so far, Phantom, and if I didn't have work in five hours I'd go through and point them out (again). That's something for tomorrow, I guess.

But in answer to your intimation that I would rather Sally have been lynched yesterday than Lottie - Yes, I would have. But Lottie being evil doesn't exonerate Sally in the slightest - in fact I'm more suspicious of her now than I was - so I don't see why you brought it up.

Babe, you're not making sense. I understand your piece about Phantom, and agree with it actually, though that's just sort of who he is, but to say that you'd rather I was lynched than Lottie? You would have learned nothing. Well, you would have, in that an innocent would have been lynched and, when Lottie did get lynched and was proven guilty, you would have had a lot to look at in regards to the first Day. But saying "I wish we hadn't Fenris'd someone" is never okay to say. Never. Sure, say "We should lynch Sally and see what happens and what we can learn with both of them dead" but you can't say you'd rather I was dead than a proven elf. I can't understand why you would say this unless you were one too. Sorry, kid, but it's true.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Izzy's death is sort of explainable, she was a Lottie-voter, aside from that, many people seemed to trust her. Lottie's wolvery is not such a big surprise either, and now if you ask me, I think that makes sally rather innocent. I'd like to take a better look at the way the Lottie-voters voted, but generally I think it might be a good indication of the peoples' innocence. It would be interesting to know how many Wolves might've been among the Representatives yesterDay.

Finally. Someone who gets it. I plan to look long and hard at who voted (both for representatives and the lynch itself) whom and why.


Basically....Shasta looks bad to me, based on that post, and Legate sees sense on many a level, which unfortunately doesn't mean he's innocent. Nerwen looks rightfully innocently frustrated with Phantom, so I won't be wanting to lynch her toDay, but I don't want her as a representative either, as I don't want Phantom dead....yet, at least.



Off to peruse page ten now.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Wilwa

Well the way Lottielf voted for Phantom so early in the Day it almost seems like something she would have talked to the other SoE about during the Night, so for another SoE to also do it just seems strange. Also if Sally is an elf and voted like that, I don't know why her fellow elf would come on and vote the same right after, they must have known that would draw way too much attention to themselves, and I don't see them doing that. Like I said though, it doesn't make me feel fantastic about Sally, but I would still be a little surprised if she turned out to be an Elf.

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

About Sally, I am not quite sure what to make of her. I do think there is merit to Wilwa's thoughts, it would be very bold of two Elves to act in the manner Lottie and Sally did. So it does seem unlikely that Sally is an elf, but it is of course not impossible that SoE is extremely gutsy.

Think again. First vote was cast by Sally. Second vote by Lottie– who is indeed "gutsy" and also– perhaps even more importantly– inexperienced as a wolf. Look at how Lottie played yesterDay– she was quite unprepared for the amount of suspicion her vote attracted, You see, your argument is coming close to saying that Lottielf wouldn't do something we know she did. That is, whether or not she voted right after her fellow, she did vote in a way that drew attention to herself, and in fact ended by getting lynched.

It could be that they had a plan to vote phantom into power, either because he's one of them, or because they thought they could manipulate and perhaps frame him, but that Lottie jumped the gun instead of leaving a decent interval before voting. It could be that there was no plan, but that Lottie decided to vote along with her mate anyway, because it was all a light-hearted early-Day-One party atmosphere and could be passed off as a joke.

It could be both Sally and phantom are completely innocent and Lottie was up to some scheme of her own.

Whatever. The point is, it's highly premature to discount Sally as a suspect based purely on what Lottie did.

EDIT:X'd with Sally herself.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Sally

As for the seer bit, I would have done the same thing. In fact I did, last game, in order to save Skip. But I usually wouldn't do that if I didn't think the seer was in danger, or if I didn't have a darn good reason otherwise. So I don't know.

I haven't forgotten last game– but that was such a different situation I didn't think it was even worth taking into account.

I am frustrated with phantom– less with the actual ploy, whatever it is, than with his attitude that nothing he does should be questioned.

Originally Posted by Sally

Babe, you're not making sense. I understand your piece about Phantom, and agree with it actually, though that's just sort of who he is, but to say that you'd rather I was lynched than Lottie? You would have learned nothing. Well, you would have, in that an innocent would have been lynched and, when Lottie did get lynched and was proven guilty, you would have had a lot to look at in regards to the first Day. But saying "I wish we hadn't Fenris'd someone" is never okay to say. Never. Sure, say "We should lynch Sally and see what happens and what we can learn with both of them dead" but you can't say you'd rather I was dead than a proven elf. I can't understand why you would say this unless you were one too. Sorry, kid, but it's true.

Er– hang on. I thought he meant, "YesterDay I would have rather Sally had been lynched", not "I now wish Lottie hadn't been lynched". You reckon that's what he meant?

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

The point is, it's highly premature to discount Sally as a suspect based purely on what Lottie did.

Heh. Agreed. You think I want no one suspecting me? That happens, I end up Night killed. No thanks. I'd rather be poked at here and there and stay alive.

EDIT: x'd with another Nerwen!

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Think again. First vote was cast by Sally. Second vote by Lottie– who is indeed "gutsy" and also– perhaps even more importantly– inexperienced as a wolf. Look at how Lottie played yesterDay– she was quite unprepared for the amount of suspicion her vote attracted, You see, your argument is coming close to saying that Lottielf wouldn't do something we know she did. That is, whether or not she voted right after her fellow, she did vote in a way that drew attention to herself, and in fact ended by getting lynched.

Yet, there is a big difference from one SoE gambling on a day1, to two SoE doing it. I would never say that we wouldn't see a SoE acting very bold/inexperienced on day1, it has been seen many times before, but for them to openly team up in such a gamble is more unlikely.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

Yet, there is a big difference from one SoE gambling on a day1, to two SoE doing it. I would never say that we wouldn't see a SoE acting very bold/inexperienced on day1, it has been seen many times before, but for them to openly team up in such a gamble is more unlikely.

Read my post again, Rune. The point is, Lottie's decision to vote phantom when she did might well have been something she decided for herself; therefore it doesn't tell us much about Sally.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I haven't forgotten last game– but that was such a different situation I didn't think it was even worth taking into account.

Fair enough. And in fact I was saying the same thing. I think it's perfectly logical to fake seer in order to save the seer or to put yourself in more danger in order to protect them, but I don't think Phantom had the reasoning or timing to do so.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I am frustrated with Phantom– less with the actual ploy, whatever it is, than with his attitude that nothing he does should be questioned.

Meh, understandable. I don't think he's a cleared innocent either, but I must say....I think him not voting may actually speak more to his innocence than if he had voted Lottie at Day's end. Shocking, you say? Scandalous? Not really.

Let's say Phantom is a SoB....erm, SoE. *headdesks, couldn't resist* Knowing that Phantom is a dirty, lowdown, double-crossing scumbag (with love, dear), he would likely be happy to vote for a packmate. It would make him look good, in fact. Thus, why wouldn't he just pile his votes on and say "look at me, I killed Lottie" and add to his train of Reasons Not to Suspect Phantom? It would make sense to do so, and while yes, some people would likely call him out and say "but you didn't kill her, in fact she was already dead before you voted", he would still look good to the masses, his "vote me and I won't vote you" pledge aside.

Basically, a wolf!Phantom would bus his packmate if he got the chance and it was really advantageous for him to do so. I'm not saying he would kill a packmate just because he fancied it, but I feel that he would double cross a fellow wolf/elf/thing if the situation had desired benefits. Especially if said packmate was already dead, or mostly dead, or whatever.

Granted, I'm not saying that I trust Phantom completely, because he could have thought of all the above beforehand and predicted that I (or someone else) would say this exact thing in his defense, but I think that voting for Lottie would have, in that case, looked actually worse than not voting at all.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Er– hang on. I thought he meant, "YesterDay I would have rather Sally had been lynched", not "I now wish Lottie hadn't been lynched". You reckon that's what he meant?

I think he meant a bit of both, at least subconsciously? I think he means that yesterDay he would have preferred to see me lynched, and he still feels that way toDay. More of a preference to having me dead than an outright attitude of "I wish Lottie was still alive", but the undertones -subtext, for Shasta's enjoyment- still remain the same. He wasn't happy with yesterDay's lynch, and that makes me nervous.


EDIT: x'd since my last, and attempting to fix all my bolding/italics because Chrome is hateful

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

Yet, there is a big difference from one SoE gambling on a day1, to two SoE doing it. I would never say that we wouldn't see a SoE acting very bold/inexperienced on day1, it has been seen many times before, but for them to openly team up in such a gamble is more unlikely.

Which is why it didn't happen. One elf, yes, two elves, no.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Read my post again, Rune. The point is, Lottie's decision to vote phantom when she did might well have been something she decided for herself; therefore it doesn't tell us much about Sally.

I think what you're saying is that Lottie could have jumped onto my vote without my consent or prior knowledge/planning. Yes?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

But in answer to your intimation that I would rather Sally have been lynched yesterday than Lottie - Yes, I would have. But Lottie being evil doesn't exonerate Sally in the slightest - in fact I'm more suspicious of her now than I was - so I don't see why you brought it up.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I'm not sure about this. It would have been really bold from Lottielf to follow Sallyelf's rep vote so openly. Then again, I'm not sure of whether I've ever played with an evil Lottie before, so I don't know whether she would pull a stunt like that.

I've been leaning toward Lottie's Elvishness being a point in favor of Sally, since voting for the same rep so close together seems so reckless. It's possible they were mates, but it seems like a bold move, especially for a Day 1. I think it's nearly certain though that if Sally is another Elf, phantom isn't.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Speaking of that - I'm sorry if you've already explained this and I have missed it, but why didn't you vote yesterDay? As far as I've seen you have just given a lot of reasons why you would have voted had you been an elf.

I don't remember seeing his explanation for that, either. Could be another convoluted scheme of an orcish tp, or a move by an phantelf to avoid commitment.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Right, defensive = evil, sorry, I forgot that as an innocent I should have no desire to remain alive.

That looks rather odd as well. There's certainly nothing wrong with defending oneself, but your response looked out of proportion to the situation.

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

Also I should probably mention that even though I would love to receive a mandate from the masses, today is not a good day for me to be a representative. . . Unless you want a representative who show up drunk and makes a more or less random vote.

Looks to me like you'd merely be on-par with the majority of world politicians.

x/d with Sally x 2

[the phantom]

*stumbles in yawning*

Originally Posted by Green

What made you change your mind? (regarding Wilwa)

A combination of the lynch yesterday and her explanation today. Also, as I may have mentioned earlier, I'm keen to give a one day pass to anyone who had some sort of hand in lynching Lottie, so for the purposes of today's exercises I may as well think of them as innocent and see where that gets me.

Originally Posted by Green

Speaking of that - I'm sorry if you've already explained this and I have missed it, but why didn't you vote yesterDay?

Because I thought it prudent to leave the lynch the way it was. And looking at the result, I'd have to say that I did indeed make the smart decision.

Originally Posted by Legate

Although, on the other hand, I'd like to look at the timing of his Seer reveal - because now it had occured to me that if he was a Wolf, acting boldly, and then suddenly one of his teammates was about to be lynched, his boldness suddenly meant another possible threat to the WWs' team, so maybe he could try even more ridiculous move to save his skin by revealing as a Seer? If you know what I mean. But I think that would make more sense only if he revealed after it was clear that Lottie goes.

Concerning my timing, I revealed in the very last post of the entire day after all votes had been cast, therefore there was no chance at all that I was trying to impact the voting. I was watching my clock very carefully and I posted when I believed it to be under 15 seconds until the deadline.

Originally Posted by Rune

Personally I am of the opinion that if a seer was to reveal his or hers true identity on the basis on a bluff like yesterday, then they deserve to get lynched for being bloody stupid.

Thanks lad. Exactly what I think. Oh, and sorry for making you want to crush your skull with a hammer.

Regarding Sally's guilt/innocence, I'm not convinced one way or the other, but as a logical starting point for today I would like to assume her innocence and see what conclusions that yields. If we hit dead ends, then we can revisit her.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I think what you're saying is that Lottie could have jumped onto my vote without my consent or prior knowledge/planning. Yes?

Exactly.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Exactly.

Just checking.

[satansaloser2005]

Okay, so we know Phantom's not the seer, because....well, he's not and stuff, so the reveal at the end of yesterDay was likely either to protect the seer (for which we should all thank him, because we love our seer, don't we?) or to make it look like he was so he could get a pass toDay. Really, though, I don't think he would do that as a wolf, at least not on the first Day and without at least some reasoning he could point at to avoid getting lynched. Besides which, this is getting him attention, which is what he wants more than most things in the world (apart from rep votes, of course, and that's mostly the same thing). So basically I don't think we should pay too much attention to it, at least not now.

You know what we should pay attention to? The vote count I'm about to make.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Sally

Okay, so we know Phantom's not the seer, because....well, he's not and stuff, so the reveal at the end of yesterDay was likely either to protect the seer (for which we should all thank him, because we love our seer, don't we?) or to make it look like he was so he could get a pass toDay. Really, though, I don't think he would do that as a wolf, at least not on the first Day and without at least some reasoning he could point at to avoid getting lynched.

This and your argument about phantom's failing to vote being a point in his favour are both too... conjectural for my taste. Too much depend on your ability to predict what he'd do.

Case in point:

Originally Posted by Sally

he would likely be happy to vote for a packmate. It would make him look good, in fact. Thus, why wouldn't he just pile his votes on and say "look at me, I killed Lottie" and add to his train of Reasons Not to Suspect Phantom?

Funny thing is, though– phantom himself says earlier that he would never do that.
You see, he argues that it's in his favour, too, but for the exact opposite reason.

Actually, there are a couple of points in his favour: one is the rather obvious one that what he did was practically a request to get himself dreamed. The other is more subtle and indeed tenuous – the way Lottie kept responding to questions about her own behaviour with defences of tp, though it's true the two were related– framing attempt? It's possible.

[Nerwen]

Anyway, let's get the voting started:

++Shasta for representative++

[satansaloser2005]

And may I ask: why Shasta?

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

People I don't quite trust:

Greenie: Actually seems al right, I am definitely getting good vibes . . . she tends to make many lists. . . Yet I there is something not quite right. . . Garr i cannot put a finger on it. I will have to go over her posts later.
Glirdy; Doesn’t look too good. He is hardly around and doesn’t really commit himself. It seems like he is trying to stay out of the spotlight. . . Of course there is the chance that I am biased simply because he mentioned me as making him uneasy.
Sally: Acts in a way that is bound to attract attention and she hasn’t convinced me that she is a fellow orc. I would still be surprised if both Lottie and her turned out to be SoE.


People I feel somewhat al right about:

Lommy: Not only did I find her reasonable, but her voting was also in top class.
Phantom: Is acting like you would expect him to. . .or not to. . . He is being all Phantomish. He has his own reasoning and always ends up concluding that he a cunning and evil mastermind. But for all his tricks and weird reasoning, I have yet to see something that screams “pointy eared ladyboy”. He has been very nice to me in this game, which I don’t know if is good or bad, but for now I believe him innocent (of this particular crime. . . I still expect him to be the elusive dental floss thief?.
Shasta: At times he seems a bit too eager to point fingers, but in general his post has been rather concise and reasonable.
Foley: I like Foley’s posting even more than Shasta.
Vanilwa: I did not have much of an opinion about Wilwa during Day1, but today I think she has done a good job. I thought her “defensive” post about her reasoning was very sensible and I have a hard time seeing her being a SoE.
Nerwen: Nerwen is always tricky, her opinion is not easily swayed and if she spots a weakness in her opponents defence she attacks relentlessly as the red army during the Crimean offensive. I can follow her reasoning, although I do not agree with all her conclusions. . . she puzzles me, she always does. I would like to believe her innocent, but I am not 100% sure.



No proper opinion:


Zil: Seems helpful, I need to look over Zils posts again before saying any more.
Celuien; I think it is quite telling that I cannot remember a single thing said by Celuien in this game, but have to look through my notes and old posts.
Kath: Not around – Not good
Legate: He seems like his normal self. Dreadfully boring, but mostly sensible and harmless. . . and of course impossible to get a read on.
Mira: Very quiet – A definite improvement from her normally loud self.
Nog : He seems to act like he normally does, but has simply not been around enough for me to form a proper opinion.
Steve: Steve is one of the people I normally find suspicious, so it is actually an improvement that I don’t really have an opinion this time around. I might just vote for him as representative.



I hope I didn't leave anybody out or added someone that isn't in the game any more.


I will vote shortly and then I have places to be, so I will have to wait a bit before I look into the posts of Greenie and others.

[the phantom]

Some of you who haven't done so- any chance you could follow the example of Rune and Greenie and make a list in which you name every villager and give a short blurb about them, or at the very least place them into categories of suspicion?

And I cannot express how much I would like for everyone else to show up, particularly those whose participation was on the low end yesterday.

[Nogrod]

Finally around! I got the start of the Day to my memorystick earlier on the day at my mom's place and read it at home (to the end of the previous page). I hope I can switch to a place near the power-output before the charge runs out (so in the pub right now - and this being Saturday night, not the most peaceful environments for trying t think ).

So reading the rest now... but to be poked for sure.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I have got to run so here is the vote from the Runetopian jury.

++Steve for Representative

Call me an easily manipulated orc or whatever you please, but I want to see what he does with with the power.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Phantom

because I was hoping to be night-killed!

I call bulls- er, elf-dooky.

Originally Posted by Phantom

You cannot justify your claim by saying, "There've been counters in other games!" This is me, in this game, with these people, at this precise moment. With me, in this village, at that time, there was not going to be a counter-reveal. End of story. I can't believe I'm even having to explain it.

This is entirely contradictory to your previous actions. You were all too happy to point out earlier that I agreed with you about Day 1s in a previous game, so why you're suddenly so gung-ho about previous games not mattering is beyond me. Phantom, I think your entire problem is that you assume everybody is a clone of you and thinks the way you think.

Originally Posted by Phantom

It's only "normal and logical" in the sense that you are curious and want to know.

Incorrect. It is normal and logical that you are being questioned as a player, by another player, about your actions. It seems to me (and I think I've said this before) that everytime someone dares to question the great Phantom, you go into a frenzy of "you're an idiot if you question me"!

Originally Posted by Legate

Lottie's wolvery is not such a big surprise either, and now if you ask me, I think that makes sally rather innocent.

Why do you think this, Legate?

Originally Posted by Rune

Yes the Phantoms actions are often weird and sometimes makes you want to crush your own skull with a sledgehammer, but that is just something you have to get used to. Personally I do not believe half his tales about how cunning he is, but I don't find him overly suspicious and I definitely do not see it as being beneficial to spend the entire day fighting him.

I disagree with this wholly and completely. the phantom should not be getting a pass for being the phantom.

Originally Posted by Wilwa, re: unknown orc

The third one is actually not a possibility, since the Unknown Orc only chose their side this past Night.

Incorrect. Just because the OoUA only made their alignment choice this past night, it doesn't follow that they hadn't already made their decision regarding what they were going to choose.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

And I actually think that Lottie turning up guilty does make Sally look a bit better

Why do you think this, Wilwa? You're the second person now that's thought this and haven't given any reason for thinking so. I see you actually answered this in #366, though. However, all I've seen you say here is a lot of 'would-he-wouldn't-he', so I'm not really buying into it. Plus you seem to be wishy-washy on Sally here. "I don't feel fantastic about her BUT I would be surprised", etc.

Originally Posted by pearl of the moon

If I keep poking at him, it's because he keeps thrashing madly when poked at– which naturally makes me wonder. I do not think it "makes more sense as an innocent bluff"– I've said why.

I agree with this statement.

Originally Posted by Sally

Remember, the post where I said "I was ill but we got a wolf, yay!"? That one? How is that suspicious exactly?

If you really want me to dissect it for you... Let me finish this post.

Originally Posted by Sally

Babe, you're not making sense. I understand your piece about Phantom, and agree with it actually, though that's just sort of who he is, but to say that you'd rather I was lynched than Lottie? You would have learned nothing. Well, you would have, in that an innocent would have been lynched and, when Lottie did get lynched and was proven guilty, you would have had a lot to look at in regards to the first Day. But saying "I wish we hadn't Fenris'd someone" is never okay to say. Never. Sure, say "We should lynch Sally and see what happens and what we can learn with both of them dead" but you can't say you'd rather I was dead than a proven elf. I can't understand why you would say this unless you were one too. Sorry, kid, but it's true.

Elfy, elfy, elfy! You're completely misrepresenting me here - I said "would have", past tense, so the fact that you're suspecting me for allegedly saying "I wish we'd lynched Sally rather than Lottie" goes flying out the window right there. This looks a lot like the chainsawing phantom did earlier.

Originally Posted by she for whom the sun doth shine

It could be that they had a plan to vote phantom into power, either because he's one of them, or because they thought they could manipulate and perhaps frame him, but that Lottie jumped the gun instead of leaving a decent interval before voting. It could be that there was no plan, but that Lottie decided to vote along with her mate anyway, because it was all a light-hearted early-Day-One party atmosphere and could be passed off as a joke.

I think the second is more likely than the first, to be honest. I think Lottie's probably smarter than to make such a mistake. The second scenario, however, seems likely to me.

Originally Posted by a run

Er– hang on. I thought he meant, "YesterDay I would have rather Sally had been lynched", not "I now wish Lottie hadn't been lynched". You reckon that's what he meant?

*falls into a cloud of utter bliss*

Originally Posted by Sally

I think he meant a bit of both, at least subconsciously? I think he means that yesterDay he would have preferred to see me lynched, and he still feels that way toDay. More of a preference to having me dead than an outright attitude of "I wish Lottie was still alive", but the undertones -subtext, for Shasta's enjoyment- still remain the same. He wasn't happy with yesterDay's lynch, and that makes me nervous.

*buzzer sound* Eeeeeghhh, wrong, and now you're just trying to paint me in a bad light to save your own skin. It's pretty clear that I was after both you and Lottie to be executed yesterday - I wanted you over Lottie since she had subsequently defended herself and you had not (to my satisfaction).

Originally Posted by proprietess of my heart's inn

Funny thing is, though– phantom himself says earlier that he would never do that.
You see, he argues that it's in his favour, too, but for the exact opposite reason.

No fair. I was going to point this out. .

I'm sure I'm Celuien-ing with a host, aren't I.

[wilwarin538]

Ok, a list. Now I`m not really thinking too much about suspects right now, just who I want to vote as Rep, the suspects will come in the second half of the day.

Would be willing to vote for Representative

Because I trust them:

Celuien
Foley
Greenie
Legate
Nog
Rune
Lommy

Because I'd be curious what they do:

Kath: since she hasn't been on much, being a rep might get her to participate more
Mira: ditto
Shasta: because I'm really neutral about him, and I'm curious (basically because of Phantom's idea, we can put the people we trust into power later, now we should pick the ones we're unsure of)
Steve: ditto
Inzil: ditto

Would likely not be willing to vote for Representative

Nerwen: uhm, because I don`t trust her, but I wouldn`t say I`m neutral about her either, so I guess I`m leaning more to slightly suspicious, this is almost purely based on my interpretation of her tone and just some gut feelings
Phantom: he confuses me, and yesterDay he was rep and didn't vote, which seems like a waste to me, and I just don't want to
Sally: because she's way too unpredictable, and I don`t totally trust her at the moment


So I`m not really suspicious of too many people, but there are a lot that I trust, so likely I`ll vote for someone in one of my first two lists, I`m more leaning towards one of: Foley, Nog, Rune, Kath, Shasta or Steve.

x'ed with Shasta

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Shasta

Plus you seem to be wishy-washy on Sally here. "I don't feel fantastic about her BUT I would be surprised", etc.

Yep, I totally am, I am utterfly confuzzled by her, same with Phantom. Sometimes I feel like they make sense, then the next second I have no idea what's going on with them.

[Nogrod]

Got a place beside a power-outlet...

Okay. It's D2 and after Lottielf's death we have a good reason to believe Sally is not an elf. I do agree with Nerwen that it is possible she is - like it is possible anyone of us is - but this is not the reason to lynch her because the odds are against her being an elf. And unlike with many others with whom we only have these ideas like "he could be a submarine-elf" or "she might have acted like that as an elf", with Sally we have the fact that an elf went in concord with her that openly in the beginning of the Day. That two elves did that is more improbable than any of our "could be's" or "might have's".

Although I must admit that everytime Sally opens her mouth I feel like suspecting her against the "facts".

Also, I think the phantom is innocent - and is no seer. If he wasn't dreamt of yet by the seer then now he is. So let's leave him be. Also, if I'm right in what he is doing he makes perfect sense in his own way we all should be used to.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Trust Implicitly:
Shasta - Because he's a handsome devil who knows what he's talking about, of course.

Feel Okay About:
Folwren - Her suspicions yesterday seemed to be both genuine and correct.
Greenie - I agree with her almost as much as she seems to agree with me!
Lommy - A lot of gut on this one, to be sure, but her stance on Phantom yesterday seems to align with mine right now.
Nerwen - Probably my biggest innocent read at the moment, I agree with her like Greenie agrees with me.

No Real Read:
Celuien - Haven't seen enough.
Glirdan - See Celuien.
Kath - See Glirdan.
Mira - See Kath.
Steve - Nothing he's said thus far really stands out to me one way or the other.
Inzil - See Steve.
Wilwa - Wilwa is here because I'm getting about an equal amount of positive and negative vibes from the things she's been saying. I'll withhold judgment on her for now.

Slightly Suspicious:
Legate - I'm getting a bit of wishy-washy tone from his posts, and what seems to me to be a lot of opinions that aren't backed up by anything.
Nogrod - Could almost be put into the same category as Celuien et. al., but there are one or two things he's said that give me pause. I'll go back and find them here in a bit.
Rune - After attributing a post of Folwren's to him yesterday, I went back and looked, and Rune doesn't appear to be as squeaky clean as I thought he was previously. There's just a hint of a villainous tone in his posts, I think. I don't really have much to back up this one.

Pointy-Eared Freaks
Sally - Her rep vote yesterday reeks, and today she's been using flawed points to try and paint me as a baddie to save her own skin.
Phantom - I've actually been entertaining the theory that Phantom is the OoUA, Elf-sided, especially since Lottie was lynched first. But in either case (baddie-aligned orc or elf), I agree with a lot of Nerwen's posts about him, and will add the fact that he seems unnaturally defensive whenever he's addressed.

[Nogrod]

phantom: Just a question. What if your initial premise is wrong? I'm somehow getting more and more worried it might be... I mean you have a decent quess there but the world might work differently.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Got a place beside a power-outlet...

Okay. It's D2 and after Lottielf's death we have a good reason to believe Sally is not an elf. I do agree with Nerwen that it is possible she is - like it is possible anyone of us is - but this is not the reason to lynch her because the odds are against her being an elf. And unlike with many others with whom we only have these ideas like "he could be a submarine-elf" or "she might have acted like that as an elf", with Sally we have the fact that an elf went in concord with her that openly in the beginning of the Day. That two elves did that is more improbable than any of our "could be's" or "might have's".

Although I must admit that everytime Sally opens her mouth I feel like suspecting her against the "facts".

Also, I think the phantom is innocent - and is no seer. If he wasn't dreamt of yet by the seer then now he is. So let's leave him be. Also, if I'm right in what he is doing he makes perfect sense in his own way we all should be used to.

1. As has been stated, Lottie's vote doesn't really tell us much about Sally and there's no reason to think they weren't elves together. Plus Sally's first post of the day stinks of elvish soap.

2. Unless you're the Seer (which I doubt), you (obviously) can't know what the Seer's dream was last night. In fact, given that Phantom didn't go through his "lol guys I was just kidding" song-and-dance yesterday before Night fell, I'd argue that the Seer probably didn't dream Phantom - what Seer dreams of someone who is, to them, already confirmed to be lying? The way you are in favor of just giving Phantom a pass today strikes me as suspicious, and makes me think worse of you.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Elfy, elfy, elfy! You're completely misrepresenting me here - I said "would have", past tense, so the fact that you're suspecting me for allegedly saying "I wish we'd lynched Sally rather than Lottie" goes flying out the window right there.

Oh. Oh. Apologies, dear. I misunderstood your "I wish we'd have killed Sally and we still should" as "I wish we'd have killed Sally and I wish we'd done it yesterDay". Forgive me?

Originally Posted by Shasticle

*buzzer sound* Eeeeeghhh, wrong, and now you're just trying to paint me in a bad light to save your own skin. It's pretty clear that I was after both you and Lottie to be executed yesterday - I wanted you over Lottie since she had subsequently defended herself and you had not (to my satisfaction).

No, as mentioned above, it was a misinterpretation. And you do have to admit that you looked unhappy about the results of the lynch, at least in a way.

Also, your reasoning, it fails. Lottie didn't defend herself, she defended Phantom. And I....I wasn't even here. You knew this. Yet you still say that you preferred me, someone who wasn't here to say anything on her behalf, to someone who did have the chance and didn't say anything particularly helpful? What if I'm the seer? What if you had gotten your wish, and I would have been killed yesterDay rather than Lottie? Would you be happy about testing your suspicions then? I don't think so. Or maybe you would be. Maybe I'm right after all. Either way, you need to either be consistent and accurate in your opinions and reasoning or you need to be lynched for spinning a case against me that isn't correctly founded.


Also, in regards to Nog's post below, I concur (on the Phantom bits). I'm not saying that I understand him, I'm saying that I can see reasoning for why his actions wouldn't be those of a wolf. Thus, for now, I want him alive.


EDIT: x'd since Nog's 391

[satansaloser2005]

For those who don't have time to read Shasta's list in full....

Innocent: Anyone who agrees with him
Undecided: People who haven't specifically agreed/disagreed with him....yet
Guilty: People who don't buy all his rubbish

Seriously, he even says that's his reasoning for who he trusts. Read the post.

Foley seems correct? How would you know if her suspicions are correct unless you know everyone's roles? There's no other way to know if someone is "correct", and if you know roles you're either the seer (who can't possibly know enough roles to make this kind of judgement) or a son of an elvish trollop. So....that leaves?

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by me

because I was hoping to be night-killed!

Originally Posted by Shasta

I call bulls- er, elf-dooky.

Why?! It's exactly what Ordo-Phantom is ALWAYS hoping for! If I get Night-killed when there are gifteds still around I'm able to laugh and say with pride, "Ha! You killed the wrong person! Fooled you!"

Originally Posted by Me

You cannot justify your claim by saying, "There've been counters in other games!" This is me, in this game, with these people, at this precise moment. With me, in this village, at that time, there was not going to be a counter-reveal. End of story. I can't believe I'm even having to explain it.

Originally Posted by Shasta

This is entirely contradictory to your previous actions. You were all too happy to point out earlier that I agreed with you about Day 1s in a previous game, so why you're suddenly so gung-ho about previous games not mattering is beyond me.

My reference of you to a previous game was regarding an issue of overarching playing philosophy (the randomness of Day 1s). Core Werewolf beliefs are less likely to change game to game.

My point to Nerwen about other reveals in other games not mattering was regarding an issue of precise timing and persons involved. My point was that in this village at this time with this set of villagers there was zero chance of a counter-reveal.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I do not think it "makes more sense as an innocent bluff"– I've said why.

Originally Posted by Shasta

I agree with this statement.

How can you agree with this when I have so completely trashed the notion? How does my bluff not make sense as an innocent?
FACTS:
1) I've done this exact thing multiple times as an innocent.
2) I did so at a time in which I was clearly not trying to influence the vote.
3) There was no negative risk whatsoever.

It makes perfectly obvious sense, and I'm getting sick of saying it. The only way it wouldn't make sense is if you're clinging to the idea of wanting me to be guilty and blinding yourself to logic.

The only thing about me you are right about is your point at the end, where Nerwen points out to Sally that I had specifically said the opposite of what Sally claimed.

[Eönwë]

Finally managed to catch up properly.

Originally Posted by the phantom

And if you're inclined to extend innocence to Wilwa for her one vote on Lottie, you wouldn't want to vote her for rep either.

I personally think that makes her more suspicious, because if she was an elf she'd be voting for her packmate, which makes her look better, but because she only used one vote out of the two, she could've just been trying to look good while not decisively trying to lynch her, which would be a good cover for an Elf.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Phantom- Definitely could have saved Lottie by killing Sally, but didn't. Possibly could've saved Lottie by voting Boro before Izzy cast her vote (would she have wanted a double-lynch?). Definitely could've lynched an innocent Boro alongside Lottie, but didn't.

Looks like you're trying too hard.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

If you were the Seer double-bluffing, clearly I'd be doing the village a service by convincing the wolves it wasn't so. Also, if you were the Seer, why would you even suggest that you might be double-bluffing? You know, like you just did?

So that the wolves would think that.

[Eönwë]

Basically, I'm not sure what to think about the phantom-Nerwen argument, but there's something about it that makes me think that they're both on the same side. Either they're fighting Orcs, or both very cunning Elves trying to dominate the Day by confusing all of us. And since they're both very experienced and cunning players, I wouldn't put it past either of them.

Though, obviously, the most probable option is that they're both Orcs that just don't agree (as we know happens so often).

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

1. As has been stated, Lottie's vote doesn't really tell us much about Sally and there's no reason to think they weren't elves together. Plus Sally's first post of the day stinks of elvish soap.

Lottie's vote doesn't prove Sally is innocent.That I can agree with. And it is possible they are both elves - like it is more or less possible anyone of you guys are. But two elves boldly voting in similar way in the beginning is much more improbable than Lottie just trying to sail on an easy banter-vote (and how wrong she was!). If they both were elves there would have been a thought of carefulness because of the mate, because of the possible pairing in the eyes of others...

And anyway, what I'm saying was and is that the above makes it more improbable Sally is an elf, not that she couldn't be one. Her posting looks suspcious toDay, I said it already myself on my previous post, but not so much as to overdo the sheer probabilities.

2. Unless you're the Seer (which I doubt), you (obviously) can't know what the Seer's dream was last night. In fact, given that Phantom didn't go through his "lol guys I was just kidding" song-and-dance yesterday before Night fell, I'd argue that the Seer probably didn't dream Phantom - what Seer dreams of someone who is, to them, already confirmed to be lying? The way you are in favor of just giving Phantom a pass today strikes me as suspicious, and makes me think worse of you.

phantom's actions just cry for the seer to dream of him. And looking at the mess he has managed to make - two Days more or less talking only about him - would make the seer more or less irresponsible if s/he didn't dream of him and check him.

If you think you are bored to talk about tp then let him be and leave him to the seer.


EDIT: X'd from Shasta onwards...