WW XCVI - The Fell Winter of 2911

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shasta

If the wolf is Kath, then Sally's vote the day she died doesn't make sense - she would have known that she was the last wolf voting, therefore she couldn't have expected any last-minute help to lynch Nogrod, so why would she vote him? This scenario makes more sense if Sally was hoping for some help from Nerwolf.

However, the counterpoint to that is, Nog was also one of the last to vote, and obviously wasn't going to vote himself - and was pretty obviously going to vote Sally - so on the surface it doesn't look like there was much point in Sally voting Nog either way. It's possible she was just going for the misdirection factor, though I don't know how likely it is she voted specifically to implicate Nerwen. Probably not too likely.

Yes– Sally's last post makes more sense if there was a wolf left to vote– I've said that myself. But you see: from my point of view I can easily substitute "Shasta" for "Nerwen" in the above, can't I? Only if you're the last wolf, why would you throw the lynch like that? All you'd have had to do was follow Sally's vote on Nogrod– with the tiebreaker rule, that would have been almost certain death for him. After that, he could have been saved only if he and I had voted for Sally *and* Menel had turned up at the last minute and followed suit. But then, if you don't realise that now, my dearest, I don't suppose you realised that then...

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Checking in from phone.

Kath, don't you think it's a little odd that I'd spend all that time being suspicious of Sally, as a wolf, only to turn around and try to save her at the last second? This is one of those "if I were a wolf" moments, but I like to think I wouldn't be that obvious.

Thing is, my heart– it's now clear that the wolves did *something* darned odd on Day 3.

Which is actually re-stating the puzzle we've had before us ever since: theoretically, the wolves could have won on Day 3, with a co-ordinated effort– but no such effort was made. Why not? Menel's being furry would have provided a simple answer– but we now know he wasn't.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Yes– Sally's last post makes more sense if there was a wolf left to vote– I've said that myself. But you see: from my point of view I can easily substitute "Shasta" for "Nerwen" in the above, can't I? Only if you're the last wolf, why would you throw the lynch like that? All you'd have had to do was follow Sally's vote on Nogrod– with the tiebreaker rule, that would have been almost certain death for him. After that, he could have been saved only if he and I had voted for Sally *and* Menel had turned up at the last minute and followed suit. But then, if you don't realise that now, my dearest, I don't suppose you realised that then...



Thing is, my heart– it's now clear that the wolves did *something* darned odd on Day 3.

Which is actually re-stating the puzzle we've had before us ever since: theoretically, the wolves could have won on Day 3, with a co-ordinated effort– but no such effort was made. Why not? Menel's being furry would have provided a simple answer– but we now know he wasn't.

Which is something I still disagree on with Kath -

Originally Posted by Kath

Shasta says I can't be considered innocent just because I didn't follow Legate's vote. I entirely disagree here. Had I been a wolf and knew we could have won the game this Day I would have.

Much like things my pearl and I have said today, this is an 'if I were a wolf, this is how I'd act' statement. Which may be true, but isn't something provable.

I think I'm beginning to see the answer to that puzzle, though, bright shining moon. It may simply lie in the fact that the remaining wolf wasn't willing to link herself to Legate and Sally irreparably with a vote for Nogrod (obvious, I know - but no one could have foreseen the fact that Menel would forget to vote entirely.)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

As for this -

Originally Posted by Kath

Bad point about backing off Menel - based on assumption entirely from Shasta.

(regarding G55 backing off of Menel in her list, as far as I can tell - Kath wasn't clear)

Well, she did. The "assumption" I think you're talking about, Kath, is when I said "(because of the opposition?)" which is, rather, a possible reason for why G55, as a wolf, would have stopped going after Menel so hard. I don't see why that was a bad point.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Also, my reason for living, it pretty well appears that anything that could be said of a Shastawolf could also be said of a Nerwolf, at least regarding the end of Day 3. Considering that Nogrod wasn't going to vote for himself, after all.

Which is, of course, what you just got finished saying. Forgive me for restating the obvious.

[Nerwen]

After re-reading: up till toDay, the person who makes the most sense as a wolf– or the least amount of nonsense, perhaps that would be better– is actually Kath, not Shasta. Once you stop seeing the placing of the Day 2 vote as a sign of innocence, and look at the vote itself, it doesn't appear so good after all:

Originally Posted by Kath

So Lommy voted for Agan and sally. I'm tempted to go the same way. I feel like she was on to something. I haven't looked at sally and she's only just around while I'm disappearing. Therefore:

++AGAN

To recap: Lommy voted Agan on Day One. She was not attacked that Night. She voted Sally on Day Two. She was killed the following Night. Which one does that point to? (Hint: not Agan.)

Now, at that point, there was no telling who'd be lynched– but the next Day, a hypothetical Kathwolf would have returned to a quite nasty situation– one comrade dead, the other heavily suspected, herself the only one to have cast a vote for someone other than the known wolf, and the person she did vote revealed as the Ranger. I'd say some damage control would have been in order– and this in turn makes her case and early Day 4 Legate-vote look quite a bit less shiny.

So far, so good. Only– again, why on Earth would a Kathwolf have eaten Nogrod last Night– the one person convinced of her innocence? It would make sense to keep me alive, since she'd already got herself into a position where she could vote me toDay without raising any eyebrows– but why make things hard for herself by not eating Shasta? Whereas killing Nog and leaving Kath and me alive would make plenty of sense for a Shastawolf.

[Nerwen]

See, I honestly find myself struggling to control my irritation at some of the things Kath has said, like her continued misrepresentation of my posts ["reluctantly says Sally might be the cobbler", "pooh-poohs Agan's sally suspicion"], or her apparent obliviousness to the idea that anything she does could be considered suspect, even when she sees it that way in others [e.g. pursuing/voting G55]. And I've seen her hide behind the whole too-rushed-to-check-anything-must-fly persona as a wolf, so it doesn't really cut that much ice with me.

–And for just that reason I find myself wary of Shasta toDay. Because I am quite certain he knows I'm feeling this way, and knew it last Night, too...

[Kath]

'Cause sally hadn't been around that Day and as I had to vote so early my aim was to get people focusing on Lommy after I had to go.

Not saying I don't appear suspicious. I have made many mistakes, fine. It's the last Day. 2/3 of us are innocents. Why are we alive unless there was a chance of making a case against us?!

Nerwen:
It is true, though, that the Cobbler is probably to be found *somewhere* in the current mess. In fact I could even say Sally's behaviour might fit her being the Cobbler, unable to make up her mind if G55 is a wolf or not. –That's "might fit", mind you– I could perhaps say the same thing of Lommy, too.
'Might fit'. Repeated twice. = reluctance.

Agan at #198 makes an excellent analysis of The Sinister Sally, bringisg out some points I don't think anyone else had. Then she winds up with a quite invalid suspicion, based on out-of-context quoting.
'Quite invalid suspicion' = pooh pooh's Agan's suspicion. Not 'points against sally', 'suspicion'.

This word misrepresentation - I do not think it means what you think it means. It may be that I term things differently, simple language use difference, but I'm not deliberately altering the meaning of your words.

I didn't want to vote last night because if I vote for the innocent the wolf is obviously going to piggyback straight on that vote. Didn't want to end up losing the game so early if that happened.

I've genuinely run out of time though. I go to work in fifteen minutes.

++NERWEN

I can't make a case for Shasta. Why would he have prevaricated around the deadline trying to save sally and then given in and voted for her? 'Cause the tactic didn't work - Nog and Nerwen held too long - and it was the less suspicious way out? It felt delaying but ...

Basically. Massive well done Shasta if it is you! You've been as slippery as a very slippery thing and if even innocent-all knowing-clean as the driven snow-Nerwen can't figure you out how is poor-stupid-thick as two short planks-Kath supposed to? If it's Nerwen. Good.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm not sure I even want to now, but I owe my teammates for this being the second game I've fed them to the village.

++Kath

I'll let my pearl decide, though.

[Nerwen]

Well, Kath, you voted for the innocent and the wolf– if it's not you– *is* going to piggyback straight onto it.

Therefore, I must hope that is *is* you, as otherwise the game is already lost.

Very well–

++Kath

Whichever of you is really the wolf has been very clever, anyway.

P.S., Kath, I said "misrepresentation", not "deliberate misrepresentation". There is a difference.

EDIT:X'd with Shasta.

[Nerwen]

So it was you, Shasta.

Oh well, at least I was the first to pick the correct wolf-line-up.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

So it was you, Shasta.

Oh well, at least I was the first to pick the correct wolf-line-up.

You were. And you gave me an incredible fright when, two minutes after the day opened, you asked the one question I was so scared you were going to - "why Nog, if Kath?"

[Kitanna]

“Well Kath, this is it.” Shasta remarked. He'd found a rope in Inzil's storeroom and was knotting it while Nerwen tied Kath's hands together.

“You know I'm innocent!” Kath had originally struggled against them. She had done nothing wrong and they had no right to harm her. But her efforts were futile and she realized this. At least she'd be dead and wouldn't see what was left of the village fall into ruin.

Shasta threw the rope over a beam on the ceiling. He fiddled with the height for a few moments before he placed a chair under the noose, content with his work. “Bring her over, Nerwen.”

The two forced Kath to stand on the back of the chair. It was a balancing act, causing her to stand up on her toes. At least the awkwardness of it all wouldn't last long. Shasta and Nerwen kicked out the chair together. The drop was short and the jolt of the drop cracked the woodsmith's neck.

The body swung there. Silence fell over the bar. Uncomfortable, Nerwen approached the body of Kath. She searched her pockets. No contract.

“I suppose I'm screwed now.”

“Yes, I suppose you are,” Shasta responded. Outside the wolves bayed.

The Dead
Kitanna - Left on the Brandywine to be eaten on Night 1, Moddess
Pitchwife - Beaten to death on Day 1, Ordo
Inzil - Strangled on Night 2, Seer
G55 – Committed suicide on Day 2, Ordo
Lommy - Kabobbed on Night 3, Ordo
Glirdan – Spontaneously combusted on Night 3, Cobbler
Sally – Poisoned on Day 3, Wolf
Legate – Devoured by wolves on Day 4, Wolf
Aganzir – Walked out to meet her fate on Night 5, Ranger
Menel – Forked over on Day 5, Ordo
Nogrod – Distracted and mauled on Night 6, Ordo
Kath – Hanged on Day 6, Ordo

The Living
Shasta - Survived to reign over the remaining foodstores, Wolf
Nerwen – Survived only to be betrayed, Ordo

[satansaloser2005]

That's my flaming wolf boy. <3

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

That's my flaming wolf boy. <3

I say! Wonderful performance, shasta, you managed to sneak your way through the remaining Days fairly enough without us.

I am so sorry for the very scattered performance of mine especially on the last Day I was playing, though maybe it was for the best. Sadly, there was no time for me to attempt to drown a few more ships along with mine

I have still enjoyed the first Days so much, especially, like I have already told her (and I should probably apologize for it once more), questioning G55 over and over again about the same stuff to the point of frustration, and I believe the famous slip of hers can be attributed to that. Yes, I know, not nice at all.

In any case, great job from my colleagues' part, it was lovely to play with you. As with everyone else. I must say, Nog, you were clinging to your life really nail and tooth, and I have to take hat off to you for making it that far. I was thinking you might be gone by Day 2 already. And of course, nice job from Agan. We were debating what you might be (Shasta thought you might be the Hunter posing as Cobbler until I pointed out to him that there is no Hunter in this game, but he managed to freak me out with that possibility for a second, too ), although I think my colleagues did not believe you were the Cobbler so much. I thought so on the first Day, but later I wasn't so sure anymore. The weirdest thing was we (or at least I) didn't think you might be a Ranger posing as Cobbler, somehow that didn't occur to me (I was operating under the logic "Ranger wants to stay quiet").

Lommy's death on Night 3 was, if I recall correctly, partially with the hope of her being a Ranger.

And before somebody asks, no, we did not really spot any Seer hints from Inzil as far as I know, but we just thought he might be a good target, and possibly a Seer. But, of course, the main reason was that our resident psychic just happened to randomly throw the name in. As it happens We still had no idea what would happen after we decided the kill. It was a surprise, but a pleasant one, to quote one of my favourite scheming Galactic senators. It's funny, at the moment I saw Shasta listing Zil's name as a possibility for our Night kill, I felt like "hey! This looks like some psychic pick!" And so it was...

Last of all, thanks to Kitanna. It was really enjoyable game, a pity the Cobbler didn't work out so much, but then again, even though its abilites were not successfully utilised (or were they?) it was present at least "theoretically", in discussions, which was enough...

[Inziladun]

Wow, what a failure on my part. Looks like I managed to do just enough on Day 1 to get the wolves' attention, but not enough to keep Menel safe. Definitely not how I envisioned my debut as a Seer.

Menel was indeed my Night 1 dream, and Nog nailed the reason why: since I'd never played with him before, I saw him as more of an unknown than the rest.

Night 2 I went for Agan, learning of course that she was the Ranger. Going into Day 2 I was pondering how I would play it if the time came to reveal. That turned out to not be an issue.

I was focused on avoiding my perennial hazard: getting lynched. Being Night-killed usually isn't something I have to worry about, especially early on.

I wasn't able to follow this very closely after my demise, but it appears to have been very well-played on the pack's part.

Thanks for the game, Kit, and for the opportunity to be Seer.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Legate

And before somebody asks, no, we did not really spot any Seer hints from Inzil as far as I know, but we just thought he might be a good target, and possibly a Seer. But, of course, the main reason was that our resident psychic just happened to randomly throw the name in.

We should have known. How does he *do* it?

[Galadriel55]

First and foremost, well done, wolves! You deserve it!

Shasta, that was . Just, WOW.

Legate, no worries. :-) Looking back at the Days when you were around more, your subtle pushes - and that they worked - were just scary.

sally: *sends cupcakes*

Agan, that was neat! I figured out on Night4 that you are either wolf or Ranger, and when I saw that there was a Ranger save I went "I knew it! Way to go Agan!"

A question to the wolves: I thought you would bluff and double-bluff with Agan. I was half-convinced that you would let her live and get her lynched for that (since she could only have 2 roles: Ranger or wolf). Were you afraid the village would ask for a counter-reveal before lynching the potential Ranger? Or that Agan would make another save while you twist and scheme around her?

Zil, it's not your fault Shasta was a wolf. You got the message about Menel across, so don't blame yourself that it didn't work in the end.

I wish I could say something on the cobbler role, other than that I wish it worked. Glirdy, did you get to do something on N1, though?

Nerwen - every game that we have played together (excluding the one that you modded, but that's not really playing) you were either a Ranger or a Wolf. This game broke the pattern. I'm glad it did - not at least I know how you play as ordo. :-)

Nog, I'm sorry about that. I think I'm somehow getting into this state of mind where I convince myself that you can't be innocent, and I try to prove it. I have to really stop it. The Day after my lynch I was fairly sure you were innocent, and I had a feeling you'd be killed on N6, but that was no use to the game as I was sound in my grave at that point.

Menel - it's a shame that your first game after the break went this way - that you were basically a proven innocent and you were still lynched. I think it is your playing style that irritates me and some others (and is an excuse for those with evil intentions) - one usually takes a peg and searches for a hole it can fit in to, but you pick a hole and look for a peg that might go in.


I think I'll kick myself a few times, or more than a few, now that the game is over.

Originally Posted by Galadriel55 - Day 1

Legate - makes me alert, but no red light yet. Can't really say where the ill-at-ease feeling is comming from.

Originally Posted by Galadriel55 - Day 2

I think that Zil has been killed either because he did not leave a clear enough trail, or because he left a nice false trail in my direction; I doubt that the wolves saw him as the Seer (unless Shasta is one of them, in which case anything is possible).

Why is it the wrong suspicions that always stick?


Well, it was a good (and educational for me) game, well played everyone! And thanks Kit for modding and the awesome narrations! I loved them!

[Galadriel55]

A couple things I made a note to myself about:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

G55's #143 takes the frustrated innocent vibe up to eleven - it's like she's Brinniel, combined with Rikae, with a little bit of Morsul thrown in.

Well, now I know my recipe. Except that I've never played with Brinn and Morsul, and both times I've played with Rikae she was Night-killed rather than lynched, so I don't actually know what Shasta means about my playing. xD

Originally Posted by Nerwen

*waves to dead players reading the thread*

Well, Pitch, Zil, G55, Lommy, Glirdan–

I'm sure you've by now worked out that I, Shasta and Nog can't possibly be packmates.

*waves to Nerwen* Actually, at that point I was so paranoid that everyone was a packmate.

The worst thing about dying early is that I manage to come up with the best suspicions and observations after my death.


ETA: unrepped people - it's coming.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by G55

A question to the wolves: I thought you would bluff and double-bluff with Agan. I was half-convinced that you would let her live and get her lynched for that (since she could only have 2 roles: Ranger or wolf). Were you afraid the village would ask for a counter-reveal before lynching the potential Ranger? Or that Agan would make another save while you twist and scheme around her?

They probably didn't think the village would fall for it– after all, why wouldn't the real Ranger have counter-revealed immediately, if Agan was a fake? (If you, being a gifted, wait too long before challenging a false reveal, usually everyone believes the monster and lynches you.)

[Meneltarmacil]

It was great to be back. Although it's really too bad that I didn't realize what was going on until it was too late.

[Meneltarmacil]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Well, now I know my recipe. Except that I've never played with Brinn and Morsul, and both times I've played with Rikae she was Night-killed rather than lynched, so I don't actually know what Shasta means about my playing. xD

I was the Seer once, and dreamed of Rikae. Upon finding out she was a wolf, I spent the next Day trying everything to get her lynched. She put on a very convincing "I'm just a frustrated innocent and Menel's being mean to me" routine.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

They probably didn't think the village would fall for it– after all, why wouldn't the real Ranger have counter-revealed immediately, if Agan was a fake? (If you, being a gifted, wait too long before challenging a false reveal, usually everyone believes the monster and lynches you.)

Except in certain cases. *coughBorocough*

And as for the Day 3 shenanigans - well, I've been screwed over by last-minute out-of-nowhere votes before (see - wintywinty), and with Menel not around anywhere to gauge, I felt it was too risky to vote Nog then.

[Kitanna]

I had hoped to write longer death narrations, but the day the game started was the day my co-worker decided she needed surgery and so I got extra stress piled on. Then of course when she deems she's healthy enough to come back the game ends. Oh well, no more excuses I do hope you all enjoyed the short narrations.

I'm happy with the way this game turned out well. Congratulations to everyone for a game well played.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I had hoped to write longer death narrations, but the day the game started was the day my co-worker decided she needed surgery and so I got extra stress piled on. Then of course when she deems she's healthy enough to come back the game ends. Oh well, no more excuses I do hope you all enjoyed the short narrations.

They were wonderful! I hope you're not as stressed anymore, now that your co-worker is back...

[Meneltarmacil]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Menel - it's a shame that your first game after the break went this way - that you were basically a proven innocent and you were still lynched. I think it is your playing style that irritates me and some others (and is an excuse for those with evil intentions) - one usually takes a peg and searches for a hole it can fit in to, but you pick a hole and look for a peg that might go in.

My reasoning was this:

1. What would a wolf most likely be doing, given the current situation?

2. Is anyone doing that now? If so, lynch them.

Sorry if it seemed irritating, but that's the way I work best.

[Nerwen]

Ye-es... but Menel, if you pretty much only do that, it just seems you're trying to find "reasons" to suspect whoever is most convenient at the time– and to everyone else, of course, that looks a lot like "what a wolf would be doing, given the current situation". See?

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

Sorry if it seemed irritating, but that's the way I work best.

You weren't irritating at all on a personal level, sorry if I sounded like that. You were more, like, irritating the wolfy radar.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

You weren't irritating at all on a personal level, sorry if I sounded like that. You were more, like, irritating the wolfy radar.

"Pinging", surely? I don't think a radar can be irritated...

[Nogrod]

Kudos Shasta!

We were really bad (we=innocents) in the beginning, then we geared up only to lose at the last possible moment... But hey, that's the fun of the game, a rollercoaster-ride!

Lommy knew you were a wolf after she and Legate had dropped out of the game and when it was revealed I was killed she was here and asked whether I wanted to know the last wolf. I wanted to make a quess and went to and fro for a while ending up with you Shasta because of what I wrote in my post about you trying to systematically ignore and/or divert the Sally-lynch back there. So you were the only one I had "reasons" to suspect, others I just had bad hunches etc.

Not that I would have been able to turn the tables on the last Day had you decided to kill someone else. Probably not... as I'm not sure I would have voted that way in the first place. Who knows.


But I do think this game strengthened - for a long while - the belief that you can actually reason the wolves out and that you can trust some others, at least partially or for the time being. And that is just, well, nice.

Thanks for especially Agan & Nerwen for a half-decent try for co-operation (and this is not intended as a joke) & sorry for Pitch & G55 for a really misguided start!

Thanks for Kitanna as well. It's so much more fun to play when you can trust the moddess to do her job punctually and give a nice scenario! It was sad your quite interesting cobbler-role was soo wasted. But these things happen (I know).

And thanks everyone for playing! It was fun once again!


PS. Extra thanks to Legate for forcing me into a playing-mode...

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

It was sad your quite interesting cobbler-role was soo wasted. But these things happen (I know).

Maybe if I ever have the chance to mod again the cobbler will have the chance to shine.

[Aganzir]

Thanks for the game everybody! I was out of town until today and only saw now how it ended, and I must say Shasta's being the last wolf took me by surprise. So yes, good job and congratulations!

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Night 2 I went for Agan, learning of course that she was the Ranger. Going into Day 2 I was pondering how I would play it if the time came to reveal. That turned out to not be an issue.

That's such a pity. If you'd survived and found a way to get my attention, we could've done some wonderful in-thread plotting on the days to come!

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But I do think this game strengthened - for a long while - the belief that you can actually reason the wolves out and that you can trust some others, at least partially or for the time being. And that is just, well, nice.

Definitely. It was an interesting experience, especially for someone who's so used to constantly second-guessing herself.

I don't think I've ever before had such a clear vision of somebody's guilt, but in this game, after a couple of days of being totally in the dark, I suddenly just knew sally and Legate had to be wolves. I was almost as equally convinced of Nerwen's guilt later, though...