ARDA CUP Football 2012

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Having lost previously to the Men (and Horses) of Rohan, Imladris came into this game knowing they needed a win in order to have any hope of advancing. With that in mind, they planned a high-pressure, high-possession game. However, Misty Mountains was just as desperate, and more used to getting close to the ball, using their physicality. This game promised to be an exciting watch.

And exciting it was! Both teams came out of the gate with blazing speed and energy - Imladris gained possession of the ball first and drove it down the center into the Misty Mountains area. The ball bounced like a pinball between Arwen and the sons of Elrond; Tom dove into Elrohir seconds after he had chipped it left, towards Elladan, and received a yellow card for his trouble. The Misty Mountains card march had begun.

Play resumed in the Misty Mountains area, and Elladan wasted no time in blasting in a header from Figwit, at the seventeen-minute mark. Bert and William were not best pleased by this, and earned yellow cards for themselves as well through a bit of rather intense blocking, to prevent Varda from nabbing the ball away from Orophin.

The ball was given back to Imladris, but a crafty steal by Orophin (who really, really wanted the ball) resulted in a line drive down the right side of the field, where Durin's Bane was waiting for the easy chip into the goal. Misty Mountains had tied it up by the half.

A tie wasn't going to be good enough for either team, though, and Imladris came back in the second half with energy to spare. Misty Mountains, on the other hand, was flagging a bit, and it showed. They kept possession for a while, but didn't have the speed required to break through Imladris's defense, and around the hour-mark things took a turn for the worse. A blocked shot by Durin's Bane resulted in Imladris possession, and Arwen kneed the ball at an awkward angle, sending it flying down the field, spinning wildly. As it landed, it bounced randomly - but Erestor read the wacky bounces perfectly and swooped in, sending the ball into the high right corner of the Misty Mountains goal.

Poor Tom was so worked up over this, he kicked Elrohir rather than the ball, earning himself a second yellow and ejection from the game.

Now a man down, Misty Mountains seemed to lose their spirit. Elrohir booted in another goal late in the match easily enough, with help from Varda, and the match ended in Imladris's favor, 3 - 1.




Imladris 3-1 Misty Mts
on target 7-6
tot shots 16-14
GOALS:
*17, 1-0 Elladan (Figwit)
*28, 1-1 Durin’s Bane (Orophin)
*63, 2-1 Erestor (Arwen)
*78, 3-1 Elrohir (Varda)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Imladris- Figwit, Elrohir
*MMts- DBane, Bert, Tom, Watcher, William
RED CARDS:
*MMts- Tom (66, second yellow)


The sun was still high in the sky as Rohan and Isengard prepared to battle - there would be no devious tricks by Saruman this time. However, that didn't mean the Rohan defenders weren't particularly on the alert for anything devious. Saruman, however, had decided to spend his time more wisely, in practice with his team, and had prepared a (relatively) clean game this time. The match began with Rohan taking possession and sending the ball down field, but Gandalf's shot from way back was easily caught by a gust of wind from Caradhras and Isengard returned fire.

Wormtongue and Wulf were pressuring the Rohan defense, but the ball slipped away from them and Radagast managed to nab it. He sent it flying upfield toward Gandalf, and his fellow wizard continued the ball's flight with a sturdy kick.

Saruman dove for the ball, but missed (rather badly, in fact - a couple people in the crowd tittered about it, but only a couple), and the first person to get to it was Rohan's Helm Hammerhand. Helm slid into the ball, and it bounced several times - first, off the back of Saruman's head; second, off the right goal post; and finally off a mis-timed lunge from Ugluk and into the back of the net.

One goal was enough for Rohan; they went completely into lockdown mode for the rest of the match, giving their defense more practice. Even the midfielders got into the act, rarely venturing across the center line into Isengard territory. The match ended rather anticlimacticly, but Rohan was happy enough; with two wins, they were virtually shoe-ins to move on to the next round. Isengard was less happy, knowing they'd have to have a stellar performance against Imladris in order to have a hope of continuing in the tournament.



Isengard 0-1 Rohan
on target 3-3
tot shots 8-9
GOALS:
*80, 0-1 Helm (Gandalf)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Isengard- Wulf, Wormtongue, Freca
*Rohan- Helm, Eomer, Radagast

[the phantom]

Group A

Angband clinches first with a win, or with a draw and a SBUnt draw or loss, or if SBUnt wins by less than two goals. They clinch at least a playoff berth with a SBUnt loss or tie.

Tol-In-Gaurhoth clinches a spot with a win. They also clinch with a draw and a SBUnt loss, or a SBUnt draw should SBUnt score fewer total goals than TIG.

SBUnt clinches a spot with a win. They also clinch with a draw and a TIG loss, or a TIG draw should TIG score fewer total goals than SBUnt.

The Downer can make the playoffs with a win combined with a loss or draw by TIG. They can also get in with a win and an Angband loss should the goal difference of the two games add up to 5 or more.

Group B

Eriador is in. They clinch first with a win or draw over Inter Bel.

Inter clinches first with a win and second with a draw. Should they lose they will still advance unless Gondolin wins and the differential of the two games adds up to 3 or more.

Gondolin must win and have Inter lose, and the differential must combine to be at least 3.

Arnor has been eliminated and is playing for pride.

Group C

Erebor is in. They clinch first with a win or draw. They can still get first with a loss if Wilderland loses or draws, or even if they win so long as the combined differential does not exceed 2 and they out-goal Wilderland.

Wilderland clinches a berth with a win, or with a draw combined with an Anduin loss or draw. If they draw and Anduin wins by three goals or more their spot is not guaranteed.

Anduin clinches with a win combined with a Wilderland loss. Should Wilderland draw Anduin can still advance by winning big.

Dwarves United clinches with a win, unless Anduin also wins and by a margin equal to or greater than Dwarves Unt.

Group D

FC Valinor is in. They’ve clinched first unless they lose by a large margin and Armenelos vs Real Valinor is also a blowout.

Armenelos clinches with a win or draw.

Real Valinor clinches with a win.

Tirion has been eliminated and is playing for pride.

Group E

Every team is tied with 2 points (Hithlum, Havens, Sea, Valimar). Any team that wins clinches a berth.

A draw by Hithlum clinches a berth due to goals scored, unless Havens and Sea also draw and both exceed Hithlum’s total goals in their game. Should all teams draw goals scored will determine which squads advance. If teams are also tied there then the right to advance and/or first-second placement will be decided with penalty kicks.

Group F

Rohan is in. They clinch first with a win or draw, or with an Imladris loss or draw. Should Rohan lose and Imaldris win, Imladris would take first.

Imladris clinches a berth with a win, or with a draw combined with a Misty Mts draw or loss. Misty Mts advances if Imladris draws and Misty wins by margin exceeding 3.

Isengard clinches with a win combined with a Misty Mts loss or draw. If they both win by equal margins, Isengard advances on goal differential.

Misty Mts advances with a big win combined with a draw in the other game or a narrow win by Isengard.

Group G

AC Beleriand and Angfauglith can clinch first with a win. A draw clinches a spot for both, with first going to AC Bel on goal differential. Both teams also clinch if Doriath vs Nargothrond ends in a draw.

AC Bel can also advance with a loss so long as it isn’t lopsided combined with a lopsided win for Doriath. Angfauglith can advance with a narrow loss and a Nargothrond win by less than four goals, or with a one goal Doriath win so long as Doriath doesn’t score more total goals.

Doriath clinches with a win combined with an Angfauglith loss so long as the combined differential is greater than 2, or if it’s exactly two and Doriath scores more goals in their game than Angfauglith.

Nargothrond advances with a win and an Angfauglith loss and a combined differential of five or more.

Group H

Gondor is in. They’ve already clinched first.

Minas Tirith clinches second with a win over Gondor. They also clinch with a draw combined with a draw in the other contest. The can advance with a one-goal loss and a draw in the other contest so long as Barad Dur does not score more goals than them.

Barad-Dur advances with a win combined with a Minas Tirith loss or draw. Barad-Dur will advance with a draw if Minas Tirith loses by more than one goal, and can advance with a MTirith one-goal loss if they score more than MTirith.

Mordor gets the second berth with a victory and a Minas Tirith loss or draw.

[Nogrod]

Group A
Angband – Tol-In-Gaurhoth
Shire-Bree united – The Downer

At the moment the table and schedual looks most promising for Shire-Bree Utd.: winning the weakest team in the group in their last game they will definitively qualify. So it is all in their own hands and it looks promising to them.

The Downer isn’t totally out of the competition either as by winning Shire-Bree – and Angband simultaneously winning or drawing against T-I-G – they are through. It’s just that only a few would bet their money on that from the masters of erratic behaviour. Never say never, but the AKM wouldn’t suggest you to count on their qualifying.

That said, most eyes will turn into the game between Angband and T-I-G.
There are many things for Angaband’s favour here. The first one of them being that a draw is enough for them to qualify, however the other game ends up with. Second is, that their attack led by the black Ancalagon himself has clearly been the most deadly in the group thus far (with 38,5% scoring rate from shots on target). Thirdly: Carcaroth has been the best goalie of the group thus far with 72,7% saving-rate (compared to Shastawolf’s 66,7% - which is not a big difference though).

Also and fourthly, if The Downer manages even to draw with Shire-Bree, Angband will qualify even if they lose. But as it is not too probable – and because there will be two teams qualifying – we need to look at the team T-I-G as well.

Now team T-I-G really messed up drawing with the Downer. There’s no denying it: starting the last game with 4 points rather than 2 would have made a huge difference. But as it stands T-I-G basically needs to win. To take the positive side of it, the T-I-G team is a frequent team in the semis or at least quarters, and they tend to lighten up when the stakes are high (they are even known to be a bit lackluster in group-games & friendlies when there is no real price in the game). The negative side then is, that this T-I-G team has been just lame. The AFA’s decision to deny them all playing as werewolves but as wights is easy to see in their performance, but even the few werewolves have performed an average performance thus far at best. All the flash and flair has been missing.

But can they find it for their last game for unless they can, it will definitively be their last game in the whole tournament.

The AKM predicts: Angband and Shire-Bree to qualify.

The AKM advice for phantasy-players:
1) Shire-Bree will score so anyone in their team probable to score or assist is a good pick for your team.
2) T-I-G will not be able to shut Angband out so Ancalagon or Tevildo might be reasonable picks.
3) Angband backstairs (goalie & defenders) are a risky choice as T-I-G may get into berserk mode.
4) Don’t even think of The Downer backstairs – and looking at the games you should probably pick your goalie & defenders from another group in general.

Group B
Eriador – Inter Beleriand
Arnor – Gondolin

So Arnor has no chances to qualify and will play solely for their honour. But they are the dunéadain and they play on their homeground, so they will not let Gondolin win them. They may – and probably will – lose the game, but they will not give in an inch just because their hopes of qualification have vanished.

Eriador on the other hand has secured their qualification already, but seeing Glorfindel, The Witch King and Gil-Galad finally warming up to the competition and seeing Elrond back in the goal, it is hard to see them just making a walk-through in their last match – especially as they sure would wish to avoid meeting Fëanor’s and Beren’s AC Beleriand on the first play-off round and thus will not wish to lose the game against Inter Beleriand.

So is it Gondolin or Inter who are going to qulify?

Now Gondolin has been a bit disappointing for a second year in a row. But with a draw against Inter Beleriand in their pocket they have all chances to end up even with them. Here their 1-3 loss to Eriador come to some signifigance, as they do not only need to win, but they need to win by a margin (or hope Inter Beleriand loses to Eriador badly as well). Their advantage is that they will know the result of the previous game when their game starts so they will know just with how many goals they will have to win to qualify. Sadly, for them, Arnor will not just let them do as many goals they wish…

But if Inter Beleriand snatches even a draw from Eriador, everything Gondolin might have planned will go down the drain. And that’s exactly what Inter will wish to do. Unlike most news agencies and the general public, the AKM believed that Inter Beleriand was better team than they looked in the friendlies, and their first games have shown the AKM to have been at least partially true.

Looking at the stats from the first two rounds reveals clearly that there are teams from two different levels in this group: Eriador and Inter score better than 40% of their shots on target while Gondolin and Arnor only manage around 20%; also the goalkeepers’ saving percentages are around 80% with Elrond (Eriador) and Turgon (Inter) while both Gondolin and Arnor’s goalies
precentages are rather around 60%.

The AKM predicts: Eriador and Inter Beleriand to qualify.

The AKM advice for phantasy-players:
1) Don’t pick any Arnor-players.
2) Pick Gondolin forwards, well Maeglin or Gothmog, if you feel risky. Rôg at Gondolin goal might be a nice idea – but do remember that if Gondolin doesn’t qualify all your Gondolin players become redundant and need to be replaced and there are limited changes from this round on…
3) If you don’t have Fingon or Maedhros in your team already this might not be the time to include them as Elrond will be proving a tough goalie to beat and the qualification of Inter is far from being secure (even if more probable than Gondolin’s).
4) Eriador will probably play at least a few games still so players from the team are decent investments. And the opposition rarely scores over one goal against them so even defenders could be entertained. Elrond, of course, but it costs you two stars… and has only carried the owner 4 points / round thus far (which is not bad but not great if you reach for a jackpot).

Group C
Wilderland – Dwarves United
Erebor – Anduin

While knocking on wood the AKM says this to be one of the easiest groups to predict. Anduin looked like a team to challenge the two frontrunners of this group after the friendlies (playing even with Wilderland, beating Imladris and losing to Valimar only 0-1) but losing 1-3 to Wilderland and only managing a draw 1-1 with the Dwarves United has basically brought them down from any decent betting for qualifiers.

Now there is a possibility that either the Dwarves or Anduin could qualify over Wilderland – as Erebor is already through for sure – but that is a great but.
Wilderland only needs a draw against the Dwarves United in their last game and they are through. They won Dwarves Utd. at friendlies 4-1 and there has been no sign thus far that Dwarves Utd. would have found an extra gear to pull in in the group-games.

Erebor in turn has secured the pole position of the group and thus they know they are not going to meet Rohan on the first drop-out –round. That leaves the door open for Anduin to go for a good result – if Erebor wishes to take it lazy with nothing at stake. And that is a possibility. But that Erebor would let Anduin win the game? Nonsense.

The AKM predicts: Erebor and Wilderland to qualify.

The AKM advice for phantasy-players:
1) All Erebor-players are good picks at this time. They will most probably play at least two games still and thus will not become obsolete too soon. Facing most probalby Imladris in the first knock-out round they have all the chances to go even further. Bard seems to be hot at the moment and Beorn is a good pick for a “cheap” goalie.
2) Looking at Dwarves Utd’s stats it seems all Wilderland players would be good picks as well for this round, but if (and when) they qualify they will (most probably) meet Rohan and there their forwards might not be the smartest players to have around (remember the limited choices you have when the play-offs begin).
3) A problem for a phantasy player with Wilderland is the fact that there are at least four players; Scatha, Oromë, Galadriel and Elwë who can produce the result – so unlike with Ancalagon and Angband you can’t quite pin-point the one to bring you the points.
4) Don’t pick players from Anduin or Dwarves United, or if you really wish to do so, then pick someone from Anduin (in case you believe Erebor is not willing to play it seriously as they are already the winners of the group). Or maybe Legolas lights in fire in the last game and scores a hat-trick? Well, you pick him at your own risk.

Group D
FC Valinor – Tirion
Armenelos – Real Valinor

In group D the sitution is quite clear-cut. FC Valinor has qualified and they face Tirion in the last round who have no chance of qualifying. So all the pressure will be on the late game between Armenelos and Real Valinor where the winner will take it all.

FC Valinor could take it easy and relax in their last game if they wished, but with Huan, Celegorm and Curufin aboard, or Penlod or Lórien, or…, it is hard to see them lazying through the game. Then again they are facing fex. the hottest striker of the friendlies aka. Grandpa Finwë, Ar-Feiniel the White Lady and Eönwë the mighty, great Thorondor, and the first awaken Ingwë. So let us not decide on the outcome just yet as it is a game of honour and effort rather than competitive match, as the other team will win the group and another will stay in the group whatever the result.

But Armenelos against Real Valinor then? That is a game that will give a headache to many. They are both at same points (3) but Armenelos has a better goal-difference (-1) and has scored three goals while Real Valinor has a lousier goal difference (-2) and has scored only two goals. So in case they draw, Armenelos will qualify. In case either team wins, the winner qualifies.

Now the first question concerns the celebrity-trio Nerdanel, Miriel and Arien many had bet their money before the tournament (the editor of the AKM included). Where is their flare and flash? Is it that their midfield is not able to feed them well enough? Have they lost their touch? How is the number one goal-scorer Tilion faring in the defence and why has he not been brought up at least to the midfield? Is there a rift between Arien and Tilion that they can’t perform together? Whatever the reason, Real Valinor has the least effective attack of the whole group D! With a band of players like that who would outscore any opposition in any other group just like that! Well, more or less so…

Then again, can Armenelos deliver without Elros and without a few of their hottest scorers gone into the team The Sea? After more or less mediocre friendlies they have shown some real quality beating Tirion in a thriller and only losing to FC Valinor with two goals. But is it enough against Real Valinor which plays it’s back against the wall? Like Armenelos does. But Armenelos has the home advantage and in their case it is not a small thing but rather like some say, the twelveth player on the pitch.

The AKM predicts: FC Valinor to qualify, Tirion not to qualify… (not hard to “predict”)

The AKM bets: Real Valinor will qualify. To paraphrase a 7th age writer Edmund Husserl we say that we love Armenelos but we love even more the amazing trio of Real Valinor. We feel Armenelos has all it takes to qualify but we do believe Real Valinor will step up to the challenge and wake up to win the game.

The AKM advice for phantasy-players:
1) FC Valinor will go a long way in this tournament, possibly and probably to the very end of it, so any players from that squad are generally good picks, especially at this point of the tournament you should have one or two of their players in your team. Facing Tirion in their next game the backstairs might not be the best option but in the long run even they might pay off. Although: Huan has still not given in even one goal (the AKM believes he will concede at least one against Tirion though).
2) If you believe that the female power-trio of Real Valinor will light up in the game where it matters it might be sensible to pick one of them into your team, but if they lose you will have to change them as they will them come obsolete.
3) Armenelos will most probably score at least once and Ar Pharazôn is probably your best bet at it – but Ar Adunakhôr is a wise choice as well regarding the stars you wish to spend. But choosing Armenelos players demands you believe Armenelos will qualify: otherwise don’t pick them.
4) If you think you can afford choosing a player from a team that you know will not qualify – like a spot on special recruitement for one match – then consider Finwë of Tirion. He was the best forward in the friendlies and has been consistently good in the real tournament as well. He will most probably carry you points this round. Sadly he won’t be available to do the same on the next one.


Part 2 to be published sometime soon.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Group Tables:



(1) secured first seed
(q) qualified for the knockout stage; seeding undetermined
(x) eliminated

Power Rank:



Greatest gain:

• +19 Gondor
• +15 Inter Beleriand
• +11 Mordor

Greatest loss:

• -30 Real Valinor
• -21 Armenelos
• -17 Anduin

The Power Ranking is based on the aggregate of offensive and defensive ranking, combined with the adjusted goal difference rank of each team. The listed offensive and defensive rankings are from the actual numbers by the teams, and not adjusted. Ties are broken by a) win-draw-loss record; and b) goal difference.

The offensive ranking is based on the goals scored throughout the matches. Ties are broken by a) greater number of shots made on target; and b) greater number of shots made.

The defensive ranking is based on the goals allowed throughout the matches. Ties are broken by a) least number of shots allowed on target; and b) least amount of shots allowed.

Top Individual Performers:

GOALS + ASSISTS

3+1
Fëanor (AC Beleriand)

3+0
Ancalagon (Angband)
Beren (AC Beleriand)

2+2
Anarion (Gondor)

2+1
Bombadil (Shire-Bree United)
Fingon (Inter Beleriand)
Glorfindel (Eriador)
Scatha (Wilderland)
Celegorm (FC Valinor)
Túrin (Hithlum)
Thuringwethil (Anfauglith)
Sauron (Barad-dûr)

2+0
Saucepan Man (The Downer)
Witch-king (Eriador)
Bard (Erebor)
Finwë (Tirion)
Tar-Aldarion (The Sea)
Finrod (Nargothrond)
Castamir (Barad-dûr)
Boromir I (Minas Tirith)
Shelob (Mordor)

GOALKEEPING

1. Huan (FC Valinor) - 7/7 (100%)
2. Théoden (Rohan) -5/5 (100%)
3. Beorn (Erebor) - 9/10 (90.00%)
4. Turgon (Inter Beleriand) - 13/16 (81.25%)
5. Elrond (Eriador) - 8/10 (80.00%)
6. Elros (Imladris) - 8/10 (80.00%)
7. Manwë (Valimar) - 8/10 (80.00%)

YELLOW CARDS

2 Yellow Cards

Evil Mayo (The Downer)
Morsul (The Downer)
BoroWight (Tol-in-Gaurhoth)
Forweg (Inter Beleriand)
Lenwë (Anduin)
Caranthir (Real Valinor)
Figwit (Imladris)
Tom (Misty Mts)
Herumor (Barad-dûr)
Turambar (Gondor)
Eärnil I (Gondor)
Eärnil II (Minas Tirith)
Grishnákh (Mordor)

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

In case you didn't notice, I put one over the man in this matchday, hijacking TENT's feed and replacing it with my own. Now I'm sure those media moguls will be back with more than a vengeance, but free speech has triumphed, and no one can deny that! O happy day!

Anyway, I got a pathetic 5/16 on the games this round, drawing even TTN this time. We probably wouldn't hit the side of Hithaeglir with a catapult at this rate.

Group A: 0/2

The Downer will have more bookings than shots on target.

Fail. Anyway, I know the goalbound shots aren't his fault, but seriously, ShastaWolf, what's wrong with you this year? Seer got ya?

Group B: 1/2

Elrond will limit Gothmog and Maeglin to one goal.

Win. So sure, Maeglin and Gothmog are First Age legends, but Elrond was the first one to face a Kinslaying and live. Nothing beats that.

Group C: 0/2

Dragons will have more goals than Dwarves will have shots on goal.

Fail. The Dwarves even created a goal, who would have thunk it?

Group D: 1/2

Arien will score a hat-trick to make up for the previous round's loss.

Fail. Just one goal, plus one yellow card. Hotheaded much?

Group E: 0/2

Ulmo will score. Or at least he'll create a goal.

Fail. As a side note: apparently, Ulmo is too sporting to leave his peer goalless. That's the only way Valimar could have scored against The Sea.

Group F: 2/2

Remember Helm's Deep, Saruman? Helm will get one.

Helm pwns j00. And gets a yellow card to boot.

Group G: 0/2

Finrod will get more goals than Fëanor.

For 52 minutes, he did. T_T

Group H: 1/2

Erm, good guys win?

Erm, does the draw count as a moral victory?

Round 3 predictions (sans the other predictions, since they're really not working):

Group A:
The Downer vs Shire-Bree United
Angband vs Tol-in-Gaurhoth

I don't think the Wolves deserve to qualify. A draw with The Downer, seriously? My mother's sewing buddies could pull that off!

Group B:
Arnor vs Gondolin
Eriador vs Inter Beleriand

Elrond will school his grand-uncles. You will curse the day you let him live, Maedhros!

Group C:
Erebor vs Dwarves United
Anduin vs Wilderland

Poor Anduin. Denied two years in a row. But if even Galadriel and Elwë, Elves who probably read siege-survival manuals before going to bed, get that look in their eyes, the one where everything looks like a path to the back of the net, I doubt anyone can stop them. (Well, Erebor did. )

Group D:
Armenelos vs Real Valinor
Tirion vs FC Valinor

Fiddlesticks! So it's come to this? . . . Sorry, Arien, I choose Tar-Míriel.

Group E:
The Havens vs The Sea
Hithlum vs Valimar

So . . . if Hithlum and Valimar have a one-all draw and The Havens and The Sea have a scoreless draw, what happens to this group? Okay, Hithlum advances, and then what? Can they take the third team in Group D instead?

Group F:
Imladris vs Isengard
Misty Mts vs Rohan

Gandalf vs Durin's Bane, round two. I'm betting on the Grey Guy.

Group G:
Anfauglith vs AC Beleriand
Doriath vs Nargothrond

The day I stop believing Felagund is the day I die. And don't tell me about the goal difference!!!

Group H:
Gondor vs Minas Tirith
Barad-dûr vs Mordor

1. Eldacar is the only known victor in an actual fight between Dúnedain. Advantage: Gondor.
2. Spiders > Dark Lords. Advantage: Mordor

[Nogrod]

Group E
Hithlum – Valimar
The Havens – The Sea

With all teams even before the last round this is the hairiest group there is. In the trickiest possible situation we might need to start counting the number of goals made. In that scenario – before the last games that is – Hithlum is having the best situation (4 goals made) and Valimar the worst (only 1 goal made); both The Havens and The Sea have made 3 goals so they are following Hithlum closely (and with Hithlum having a game against low-score –masters Valimar, the two have actually good chances to overcome them in goals scored).

One thing is clear though: any team winning the last match will qualify.

That should secure that every team will fight for a win in the last games. And it is easy to see all the teams thriving for just that, with the possible exception of Valimar which is a team it is always so hard to figure – and which fact has suddenly turned the tables making the group favourite look like the most vulnerable team at this point. Weird enough: if Valimar forces Hithlum into a 1-1 draw and The Sea and The Havens play 3-3 both elven teams qualify…

If Hithlum scores two goals against Manwë they will most probably qualify – unless Valinor scores three (which we think quite improbable). It will in the end be a game of Húrin and his children against Manwë: whichever champions ovet the other wins.

The match between the elven teams is just too tight to call. The Havens has been a little more active in shooting but a bit less effective with it’s shots. On defence The Sea has allowed clearly fewer shots towards their goal, but Cirdan has been a notch better keeper than Voronwë.

The AKM predicts: Hithlum to qualify.

The AKM bets: All other three are possibilities to qualify, but Valimar the least probable. If forced to bet on a team, the AKM would bet on *flies a coin* The Sea.

The AKM advice for phantasy-players:
1) Because of the extremely uncertain outcome of this group you should be careful choosing players from these teams. You should be especially careful not to choose too many players from the elven teams unless you wish to play a “great risks and great rewards” –game.
2) Best picks from this group could be the offencive players from team Hithlum as they will most likely score at least once (possibly twice) and will most probaly continue the tournament from these teams (which is not to say they will qualify, but are the best bet for it).
3) Valimar defences are always a good choice but the AKM doesn’t encourage it this time.

Group F
Rohan – Misty Mountains
Isengard – Imladris

The first game is not a totally meaningless even if Rohan has secured the top position of the group, for Misty Mts. does have a theoretical chance to qualify. The problem for them is that it a) requires miracles from them, and b) is not totally in their own hands as it requires the hosts Isengard to beat Imladris. And to top that all, they would need to win Rohan with a better goal difference (with two goals at minimum) than Isengard would beat Imladris… You can assess yourself how probable it is that Rohan which hasn’t given in a single goal in two games would suddenly let Misty Mts. score two or more. So basically we say goodbye to team Misty Mts.

Now even if Isengard has chances to qualify, and even if there has been talk about Imladris’ problems in scoring, and even if Isengards defences and goal-keeping are actually almost as good as Imlardis’, there seems to be only one favourite for this game. Imladris might not be FC Valinor or Angband, but they still have scored three goals in two matches where Isengard has only scored one. The offencive stats thus far make this clear: Imladris scores 33,3% of their shots on goal, Isengard scores 12,5% - and they shoot about the same amount… while their goalies’s saving percentages are about the same.

The AKM predicts: Rohan and Imladris to qualify.

The AKM advice for phantasy-players:
1) Rohan is a good choice especially for defencive players. They will most likely meet wilderland in the first play-off game – and even if wilderland has an effective-looking attack, Erebor managed to keep them in one goal so it might be safe.
2) Imladris is not as good an investment as they will face Erebor in the play-offs (if they get there) and their defence will be put into a real test they might fail (Elros will get you a few points anyway).
3) The AKM does suggest you to basically ignore the forwards from group F when picking your team.

Group G
AC Beleriand – Anfaughlith
Nargothrond – Doriath

In theory the group is wide open as every team has a chance to qualify. In practise it is one of the clearest groups thus far as AC Beleriand and Anfaughlith will qualify – and the only question remains which one of them needs to face Eriador in the first play-off game.

Looking at the stats the defences are more or less equal except that Ungoliant (77,8%) is a better keeper than Marach (66,7%). But in the offenciv e stats AC Beleriand just crushes Anfaughlith. So it’s easy to see AC Beleriand as favourites to win the group.

Now the chances of Nargothrond and Doriath are tied into a “partner team” above them. Nargothrond only has chances if Anfaughlith loses and Doriath ony has chances if AC Beleriand loses. But even in those cases their chances are slim as the goal differences are huge: Anfaughlith is having +1 against Nargothrond’s -4; AC Bel is having +4 against Doriath’s -1. So that should be clear.

The AKM predicts: AC Beleriand and Anfaughlith to qualify.

The AKM advice for phantasy-players:
1) If you don’t yet have Fëanor, Beren or Eöl in your team it would be high time to recruit one of them. And as AC Beleriand will most probably play at least two games after the group-phase, you might think of some midfield / defence options as well.
2) Anfaughlith’s defences are one of the best in the tournament (even if they showed some vulnerability against Nargothrond’s attack) and even if their most probable adversary in the play-offs is Eriador, it might be just a team they could defend well against. But the AKM wouldn’t bet on Thuringwethil now, at least looking forwards to the play-offs as Elrond is more than ready to face her.
3) If you want to hire a striker for just one game and are ready to dispose of him, the AKM suggests considering Finrod Felagund of Nargothrond, or maybe Glaurung, or Beleg of Doriath.

Group H
Gondor – Minas Tirith
Barad Dûr – Mordor

Here we face a dilemma: Gondor is through and has actually secured their pole position whatever happens in the last games. Now their last game is against Minas Tirith who have 2 points while the Mordorian teams both have only 1 point and play against each other.

It is beyond doubt that the Rohanians have entertained the question of whether they should lose intentionally to their fellows from Minas Tirith to get their kin through and leave the Mordorians into the group-stage. That would be tempting especially as a loss wouldn’t drop them from the pole position. But what they have decided on the issue is far from beyond doubt.

The AKM does actually feel Gondor might indeed lose their game. But if that doesn’t happen, then we’d say Barad Dûr stand somewhat favourites against Mordor, especially because of Sauron in front of BD –teams attack against a team formed mainly from his own minions.

The AKM predicts: Gondor to qualify, then possibly Minas Tirith (if not then Barad Dûr).

The AKM advice for phantasy-players:
1) Anarion of Gondor has been valuable player (and Eldacar to an extent as well) but with the chance of dealt loss in the air the AKM wouldn’t make him a top choice at this round. But if you believe in that theory, then Boromir, Faramir or Mardil from Minas Tirith might be good ideas.
2) Going for another route Sauron, and if he’s too expensive (in stars) then Castamor or queen Bruthiel might be picks to consider.
3) Shelob of Mordor has scored pretty well but Mordor is most probably staying in the group-phase so you’d need to trade her after this game anyway.

[Boromir88]

TWO TOWERS NETWORK
Boromir the 88th

The latest TTN Power Rankings, after Matchday #2

KEY: (Previous rank. Results from first 2 matches. Goal Differential)

POWER RANKINGS

01. FC Valinor - 104.0
(Previous: #1. Results: WW +5)
-There has been no slowing down FC Valinor thus far. They have been making mincemeat of the "group of death"

02. AC Beleriand - 52.2
(Previous: #8. Results: DW +4)
-After a 5-goal slaughter of Nargothrond AC Beleriand rises to take 2nd. True Nargothrond's defense is terrible, but nevertheless, a 5-1 thumping will raise attention.

03. Erebor - 51.0
(Previous: #6. Result: WW +3)
-Nice win over the previous #2 Wilderland, and Erebor looks to make some noise in the playoffs.

04. Eriador - 43.4
(Previous: #4 Results: WW +3)
-Well, Elrond's side comes in at #4 yet again. Good 2-goal win over probably the most talented team in their group, but Group B doesn't have any serious championship contenders (excluding Eriador, of course)

05. Wilderland - 41.6
(Previous: #2 Result: WL +1)
-Not terrible to lose against Erebor, but they must bounce back with at least a 2-goal win over Dwarves United, for TTN to start respecting Wilderland more.

06. Real Valinor - 38.4
(Previous: #7. Results: LW -2)
-We think there's a bit of a flub in Nilp's rankings, since some how Real Valinor is dropped to the worst team of the tournament? They needed that win against Tirion, and the match against Armenolos should draw the largest crowd for a group match ever.

07. Rohan - 37.9
(Previous: #5 Result: WW +2)
-A pair of 1-0 victories, as Rohan seems to want to play like the Valar teams of previous years. Very good defensively, but they haven't been challenged by a dangerous attack yet.

08. Armenolos - 36.9
(Previous: #3 Result: WL -1)
-Tough loss to FC Valinor, but they have the best in their group finished and Armenolos' playoff fate is entirely in their own hands. They wouldn't want it any other way.

09. Angfauglith - 34.9
(Previous: #14 Result: DW +1)
-Needed that win against Doriath, but now plays AC Beleriand in the final match, and they can not get blown out.

10. Imladris - 29.9
(Previous: #25 Result: LW +1)
-We really can't understand this team. For several consecutive matches they couldn't score at all, then they put up 3 against Misty Mountains. Now watch, Isengard will shut them out.

11. Angband - 24.9
(Previous: #9 Result: WD +2)
-They could have taken complete control over their group, but a rather disappointing draw with The Shire leaves all of Group A up for grabs.

12. Valimar - 23.8
(Previous: #11 Result: DD 0)

13. The Sea - 22.5
(Previous: #15 Result: DD 0)

14. Gondor - 19.0
(Previous: #20 Result: WW +2)
-Gondor begins a nice climb as they wrap up Group H and are automatically advancing. Even though Group H is the void when it comes to legitimate contenders.

15. Doriath - 17.6
(Previous: #13 Result: DL -1)

16. Hithlum - 17.2
(Previous: #19 Result: DD 0)
-Another draw, but they really needed that win against The Havens. Fortunately they can draw in their last match and still be pretty sure about advancing, due to scoring the most goals in their group and the fact that no one can win a game.

17. Nargothrond - 17.2
(Previous: #12 Result: DL -4)
-An absolutely pathetic performance, Finrod should be embarrassed.

18. The Havens - 17.1
(Previous: #21 Result: DD 0)

19. Shire Bree Utd - 16.7
(Previous: #23 Result: DD 0)
-Nice draws, but for some reason I feel The Downer has a surprise or 2 left to spoil The Shire's apparently good chances of advancing.

20. Inter Beleriand - 16.5
(Previous: #23 Result: DW +1)
-Gondor has clearly become the frontrunners of Group H, so why do we have this nagging feeling that they will lose to Barad-dur?

21. Anduin - 16.3
(Previous: #16 Result: LD -2)

22. Tirion - 16.2
(Previous: #10 Result: LL -2)

23. Misty Mts - 14.7
(Previous: #17 Result: DL -2)

24. Isengard - 14.1
(Previous: #18 Result: DL -1)

25. Tol In Gaurhoth - 11.3
(Previous: #24 Result: DD 0)
-Not a good result against The Downer, and BoroWight's inbox is flooded with hate-pms

26. Gondolin - 9.7
(Previous: #22 Result: DL -2)

27. Minas Tirith - 9.4
(Previous: #26 Result: DD 0)

28. Dwarves Utd - 9.2
(Previous: #31 Result: LD -2)

29. Arnor - 7.1
(Previous: #27 Result: LL -2)

30. Mordor - 6.2
(Previous: #30 Result: LD -1)

31. Barad Dur - 6.0
(Previous: #29 Result: DL -1)

32. The Downer - 5.4
(Previous: #32 Result: LD -2)