T-I-G LV Sing when you're winning

[Boromir88]

Could you explain what you mean by "easy way out"?~Mac

It was an early vote and you said he was playing careful. It looks like one of those generic suspicions you can apply to just about anyone (well I guess minus the phantom )

Since obviously he was not happy about either choice, why didn't he at least try to bring up a third option?

I did, sally.

Regarding what you said about Cailin:

It would have been a move that could easily have backfired.

Or one that has worked perfectly. With big risk you have a chance of a big reward, of course it can blow up in your face, but my question is why is Cailin's vote risky for a critic? It's the first vote, very early, and Nogrod is usually a safe choice early, as anyone may figure he's not typically a day 1 choice.

The bigger question is, what made Nog a Day 1 choice this time?

Ilya, while it is much appreciated all the research and re-posting of stuff, it makes our job a lot easier, you dear, are frightening me. It reminds me of what Brinn did not to long ago, and was extremely successful in leading her to a wolf victory.

Edit: crossed with Agan

[Brinniel]

Oh great, we get to hear phantom talk for the entire game.

And if he doesn't count towards the tally, then it's really like he was killed...the only difference is that while the dead usually can't talk, he can. So when it comes down to numbers, we still had a loss last Night...am I right?

One thing: It's really bothering me that almost everyone is focusing on Nogrod's death alone. What about Menel? He often gets lynched early and I'm irritated to see it happen again. The sudden turn-around on him which resulted in a double lynch is just as suspicious. Especially these players who seemed to be so certain of Noggie's innocence, they contributed to Menel's lynching (some even retracting). And I will mention another reason I chose Noggie for my vote was because I hoped it'd prevent the lynching of Menel who was being heavily considered at the time. I know how it feels to die early several games in a row, and I don't think it was fair at all for Menel to be lynched so early.

Btw, what's so strange about Nogrod getting lynched on Day 1? It happened in Shasta's game and he was a werewolf. It happened in tp's game and he was a werewolf. So really if you go by record, lynching him on Day 1 seemed like a pretty good idea at the time...

[Boromir88]

Do

n't know about that. I think his points against sally were not good.~Agan

Really? I didn't think so, I mean granted it was nothing spectacular. But I never know what some of you expect. We have to start somewhere, someone's got to go, and anything Nog said about sally, was better than what sally said herself.

I'm not sure what to make of sally's retract at the end. Eventhough it didn't count, there is a look of innocence as it does look like an attempt to break a double lynch. Her retract post also looks like a rush to make it before the deadline. However, it didn't make the deadline, and it could just be a critic-sally making it look like a failed attempt to prevent a double lynch. In anyway this is hard to tell, we're talking about a matter of seconds here.

[the guy who be short]

Wild Man analyse vote record:

Cailineomer - Vote Nogrod meta-reason. Not especially suspect, but not especially un-suspect.

Mac - Vote Menel. Not especially suspicious, Wild Man think. Certainly, Wild Man share suspicion of Menel. At time, no suspect anyone else, but latest post seem wise, so Wild Man not extremely wary.

Gwath - Vote Nogrod. Had spat before. But with retrospect, look very defensive against Nogrod. Also, no suspect anyone (except Nog, Lari, late on). Speak much, say little. Then suspect Lari for she speak much, say little! Wild Man suspicious.

Fea - Again, speak much, say little. This vote worst than Gwath, for Gwath formerly suspect Nog, whereas Fea not formerly suspect, or even at time suspect Menel, and push bandwagon. Wild Man suspicious.

Brinniel - Early on, Brinn say: no suspect anyone. Then Brinn say, consider Nog, Sally or Mac, not want spread vote. Then say, want hear more from Mac, Sally say little. Vote for Nog on "feeling". Not very good.

More vote analysis to come.

[Ilya]

Boro, ha, yeah, about half-way through the thing, I thought, "Oh gosh, this is exactly what Brinn did." Still, I'm not gonna try to not be helpful because of the way it looks. Tempering what I do to how others percieve me is what made me the target of suspicion in Fea's game.

It was selfish analysis, too. I needed it because I wasn't paying much attention to much of anyone on Day 1. Now, I have a clearer picture and even some suspicions.

Fea, Boro, TGWBS, and Kath all feel good to me. Fea because she went blow for blow with TP in his ploy, and I don't think that's something a critic would do. Also, I feel like there was at least one critical hand in the all the Nogrod stuff I read and the other three were nowhere near that, and all of them make quite a deal of sense anyway.

The people who've tripped my radar are Sally, Agan, Lariren, Strongbow, and Cailin, and yes, I know there are only three critics so I'm wrong on at least two counts. The first three were the ones that really were instrumental on taking the Gwath/Nog opening sparring (which, when you look at it, is really nothing at all) and snowballing it. Lariren was just kinda agreeing and she eventually went in a different direction, but Agan knows better, and it was her vote at the last minute that sealed the double-lynch, even if it was only a mistake of timing. Bowie's points still strike me as odd, and I think killing Phantom is something he'd enjoy doing, while Cailin's post was just...strange. Haven't played with her before, so she's the one I suspect the least, and it kinda reminded me of Diamond's one weird post in Fea's last game anyway.

EDIT: Brinn, yes, we did take a hit in the tally, even if TP's still around to "help." I also would be happy to chronicle all of Menel's stuff, but I was kinda hoping someone else might do that.

[the guy who be short]

Addendum: Brinn's last post make Wild Man feel she more innocent - it seem innocent reaction.

Kath - Originally, Wild Man think Kath quiet, therefore maybe lynch Kath. However, now that she make word, Wild Man think her word wise.

Boro - No reason to suspect. Feel innocent.

Wild Man tire now. Perhaps look at Sally, Ilya, Aganzir in little while.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Brinn

And I will mention another reason I chose Noggie for my vote was because I hoped it'd prevent the lynching of Menel who was being heavily considered at the time.

Totally agreed. I also share your concern about everyone concentrating just on Nog's lynching.

Originally Posted by Boro

Really? I didn't think so, I mean granted it was nothing spectacular. But I never know what some of you expect. We have to start somewhere, someone's got to go, and anything Nog said about sally, was better than what sally said herself.

You're right but it doesn't change the fact that it doesn't make sense to accuse someone of what they always do and that's why I found Nog's point against her weird.

Originally Posted by Ilya

Agan knows better, and it was her vote at the last minute that sealed the double-lynch, even if it was only a mistake of timing.

Technically it was tgwbs's retraction, not my vote, but well. In a way it was a mistake of timing - my fault for voting so late, but rather it was because I had no idea how many votes everyone had.

Originally Posted by Ilya on Bowie

I think killing Phantom is something he'd enjoy doing

Why?

[Strongbow]

Ok: Cobbler time. The reason I asserted that the Cobbler was a Day 2 problem was because there is more time for the Cobbler to reveal himself. In my experience the Cobbler is an artful dodger, especially when combined with a spy role. The probability that we lynch Walter Plinge toDay is fairly low, and while our critic catching capabilities are near as low, it's easier to spot that dodgy, flighty behavior on Day 2 or even Day 3.

Critics, however, are a priority to me.

Anyhow, I think that our Resident Ghost's death is striking. Who would want to kill someone so entertaining and good so early in the game?

My lack of voting was due to class. I wasn't aware that the DL had been pushed, or else I would have rushed to my next class to vote. Grrr...I'll be able to vote this Day coming.

[Cailín]

Good day, my pretties.

I am truly sorry about what happened to Nogrod and wish I had not voted for him. I already regretted it when I pressed that fatal Submit Reply button, but I was afraid to invoke the Mother Mod Goddess' wrath by retracting and casting another random vote. It was a foolish decision, especially since I still need to ask him a favour. My manly half was not please with the executive decision either.

(Eomer: "Kill Sally, she deserves it")

That's the longest I ever spent apologising for a vote (to Nogrod, not necessarily to my fellow contestants whom I care somewhat less about). This means I'm sincere.

Our Opera Ghost's reputation is apparently so divine that he actually became so. Interesting decision.

The most sensible person today seems to be Brinniel. I agree with her comments on the Menel-wagon. I'm sad he had to leave us, a great voice and marvellous talent.

[Lariren Shadow]

I'm going to fully admit here that this is slightly defensive(if only to prove my point):
I haven't said much new because by the time I think of something three posts down someone has already said. While I can go along agreeing with everyone it seems rather silly. Even though people think I do it anyway.

Plus, as its been said many times, I'm new. I don't know a lot of the history that goes with the game. I like a lot, don't get me wrong, but this whole knowing to vote for who on which day isn't something I've been through. I'm just trying to feel around and post.

And, even though its very far back, I did pick up on the whole divo quote but I assumed it was along the lines of Fea's post no one listened to either.

Now I need to read more and try to come up with more theories, but in the mean time I have to go to night class bio.

[satansaloser2005]

*sees the night kill, or lack thereof, sort of, kind of, and stuff*

Oh. My. Giddy. Aunt. Yes please!!!!!

(But now there's no way to shut Phantom up. Oh, bugger. )


Excuse me, I have to go bash my face against a brick wall for an hour due to the trainwreck that was yesterDay's voting. Feel free to relieve me of my position in the game while I'm gone.

(Off to reread the Day now, to see what I can see)

[Kath]

I'm actually heading for bed so I'm not going to post properly until tomorrow (RL) but I just wanted to pop in quickly with a couple of things. Firstly to complain about the fact that someone finally had the guts to kill off phantom first Night and it didn't succeed! I know he's a help to have around when innocent but surely this is just going to make his ego even bigger?

I haven't said much new because by the time I think of something three posts down someone has already said. While I can go along agreeing with everyone it seems rather silly.

I'm completely with you on that one Lariren!

Anyway, see you in a few hours.

[Macalaure]

Short comment now. More to say later.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I'm getting more scared of Mac every time he posts. There's something that reminds me awfully much of the Mac-wolf I've seen.
....
I don't know if he's always like that and I've just usually ignored it but those are the things I immediately connected his comment to.

But Aganzir, we've been wolves together once: you know that, when evil, I give every effort to appear the exact same way I do when innocent...

Originally Posted by Brinn

One thing: It's really bothering me that almost everyone is focusing on Nogrod's death alone. What about Menel?

*nod of approval*

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Brin

Oh great, we get to hear phantom talk for the entire game.

Whatever. You know you love me.

Originally Posted by Ilya

Fea, Boro, TGWBS, and Kath all feel good to me. Fea because she went blow for blow with TP in his ploy, and I don't think that's something a critic would do.

Give Fea some credit. She's a tricksy back-stabber if I ever saw one. She would totally play along with a ploy and then kill me. Especially if she thought the ploy was real. Or a cover for a gifted (Seer pretending to be the Divo pretending to be a Lover).

Anyway, some thoughts on the voting.

If Sally is a Critic, Gwath doesn't look great.

If Mac is, then Brin doesn't look great.

If Mac or Ilya is, then Sally doesn't look great.

If Mac or Ilya is, then Kath looks good.

Ilya's vote was at a time when it could've mattered, but it didn't. Instead it was for a brand new candidate.

Agan and TGWBS forged the tie, but neither realized that they were doing so.

Sally could have saved the day, but was too late. Should we hold that against her?

Gwath was the first to cast a second vote for someone. Fea and Boro pushed two others into a tie for the early lead. And looking back we can see that two of the three have already been proven innocent. Kath elevated the fourth person to multi-vote status. Brin and Sally padded Nog's lead.

And then there was the Menel comeback- me, Boro (-Mac, +Menel), TGWBS (-Fea, +Menel), and Sally late (-Nog, +Menel).

[Ilya]

Hey everybody: Is it another 48 hour day? Or was that a one-time thing?

Lariren: Hey, you don't have to apologize for being defensive. You've got the right to explain your thought process and you're totally right about posting in agreement and all that.

The Wild Man brought up some valid points about Brinn, too, which really makes me want to do a huge Menel recap. Unless anyone says they mind, I'm gonna clog the thread again.

Agan - It's just my read on him. Bowie's doesn't seem intimidated by more experienced players, and since TP wasn't a huge subject of discussion on Day 1, aside from his cryptic playing with Fea, it might've seemed like as good a time as any to remove the threat. That said, Bowie's post today helped me understand his logic, and I understand his reason for not voting, so I feel slightly better about both him and Lariren now that I've read more of them. Cailin still not so much.

[Ilya]

Give Fea some credit. She's a tricksy back-stabber if I ever saw one. She would totally play along with a ploy and then kill me. Especially if she thought the ploy was real. Or a cover for a gifted (Seer pretending to be the Divo pretending to be a Lover).

*shakes head* Seer pretending to be the Divo pretending to be a Lover. That right there is why the two of you are far better players than I.

[Boromir88]

(But now there's no way to shut Phantom up. Oh, bugger. )~sally

We could attempt to lynch his ghost - I mean theoretically he's already dead and we wouldn't be losing another innocent body - just a loud uncorporeal voice. We'd have to devise another way of course, I've never heard of a lynched ghost before - we could try garlic? Wait, wrong thing.

Fea - Again, speak much, say little. This vote worst than Gwath, for Gwath formerly suspect Nog, whereas Fea not formerly suspect, or even at time suspect Menel, and push bandwagon. Wild Man suspicious.~tgwbs

I disagree, the only odd thing I've found about Fea is she hasn't been calling for my death. That's rather unusual, but other than that she's been Fea like...speaks in riddles, impossible to follow, seems to take an unnatural pleasure in chaos, but overall very Fea. I'm waiting on one more thing from her, if I see it, I would bet she's innocent, if not - well you can guess.

While I can go along agreeing with everyone it seems rather silly. Even though people think I do it anyway.~Lariren

Keep on keepin on, as a wise man liked to say. If you agree with something, agree with it, that doesn't make it silly. Makes it rather redundant. The more ideas said, the more pressure that is placed on someone and that can prove their innocence, or their wolvery. (Note: this is 100% biased because I like chatter - and lots of it)

Edit: xed since tp

[Ilya]

Once more into the breach, dear friends, once more!

Begin Page 1

Post 32 - Menel:

I'm here, though I don't have a whole lot to say. I wouldn't vote out the tricksy ones, devious though they may be. And our good phantom hasn't really said much yet, so there's nothing to go on for him either.

Post 36 - Agan:

Hi Menel. What about voting you out so I can get all the baddie roles?

Post 37 - Wild Man:

Menel - Why not drive out tricksy headache-maker? Someone must die. We know not who is critic. Ergo, it best to kill tricksy folk. They as likely as anyone to be critic, but if not, at least townsfolk remove headache. Townsfolk then can think clear.

Post 40 - Menel:

Oh, hello Aganzir.

Come now, who between us would be the best baddie anyhow, a human from the White City or someone who can drive people to mass panic by screeching?

And as for the guy who be tarzan, I suggest he take a bath. But to be honest, yes, some of the crazies could stand to be more helpful. Talk of triple-lynching can be risky, even as a joke. Thankfully, we wraiths lack a sense of humor.

End Page 1.

[Ilya]

Begin Page 2

Post 51 - Nogrod:

Making the point that a triple lynch (anyway we only can make a double-lynch) might be risky... hmmm... to whom at this point? For the critics themselves I think... one lynch and we probably end up with a fine and innocent singer toDay; a double lynch... the odds to bring down a critic get better... or at least the critics should have more to fear at this early hour if that option is open.

Anyway: confessedly lacking a sense of humour? A well known trait of music-critics over the whole wide world. Artists have fun, critics are grumpy, everyone knows that.

Post 62 - Agan to Menel:

See my avatar. He's my pet and he sings better than you.

Post 64 - Menel:

I agree with the phantom about the cobbler being dangerous. We really need to get him early before he dreams of one of us. Of course, it is also possible that the phantom himself is the cobbler trying to divert attention off of himself by his aggressive stance, so I don't think we can rule anyone out there.

Post 68 - Bowie:

This early? I'm not so certain. I don't think that the phantom would play that...strangely right out of the gate.

Cobbler-sneak is a problem, but I don't think that the cobbler-sneak is a Day 1 problem. I think it's a Day 2 problem. And then we kill them.

Post 73 - Wild Man:

Wild Man feel phantom speaks logic. But phantom indeed tricksy. Menel correct, perhaps phantom cobbler. But Wild Man believe not.

Post 74 - Opera Ghost:

Of course I'm the Cobbler. Mwu ha ha!

End Page 2.

[the guy who be short]

Sally - Voice no suspicion to start. Then, once Nog and Menel have 2 vote each, she suddenly say they both look suspicious! Seem like she want fuel bandwagon. Vote Nog despite suspect Menel more. However, claim this to avoid double lynch. Also, final attempt retraction to avoid double lynch. This make her seem more innocent. Overall, Wild Man neutral toward her.

Ilya - Throwaway vote in crucial position. This only mildly concerning.

Aganzir - Wild Man no understand why she vote so late. She present long before last-minute vote. Why late vote? With retrospect, Wild Man no convince by her suspicion of Mac, on feeling. Also, she should know not kill Nog day 1 for normal behaviour! Overall, Wild Man worried.

Lariren - Wild Man see little reason to suspect.

Therefore Wild Man form following continuum, where inter-star line represent complete neutral:

Most Innocent
Boro
Kath
-----------------
Brinniel
***************
Lariren-Shastanis-Strongbow-Gollum
***************
Ilya-Mac-Cailineomer
Sally
Gwath
-----------------
Fea-Aganzir
Most Guilty

Now Wild Man sleep.

[Ilya]

Begin Page 3

Post 85 - Ilya:

Menel: One should never risk one's whole fortune unless supported by one's entire forces.

Post 91 - Mac:

I don't trust Menel and Rikae told me to that Aganzir is maybe not trustworthy.

Post 92 - Menel:

So you don't trust me, Mac? Understandable, considering it's Day One and the bad guys are tough to find, but is there anything in particular that you found odd?

Post 94 - Mac:

Menel - too careful and thus suspicious.

Post 107 - Brinn:

Menel: I feel pretty good about what he's said so far.

Post 112 - Mac:

I have to say I'm a tad disappointed at the meager number of auditions that took place while I was asleep, and more than a tad disappointed at their meager content. I was hoping to see a little bit clearer this morning, but that is not the case. With nothing better to go after, I will probably vote Menel.

Post 113 - Wild Man:

Menel - Too careful. Wild Man wary of him. Cast Cobbler suspicion on phantom, perhaps he want deflect attention?

Post 116 - Fea:

Meneltarmacil - I don't know.

Post 117 - Mac:

No wiser, but in more of a hurry:

++Meneltarmacil

Post 118 - Boro:

This might sound hypocritical, but whatever, as far as Menel's carefulness - that doesn't make him look suspicious. Every single time I get a funny feeling early on about Menel, precisely because he is careful. But the one time Menel was a wolf, he was a bit more defensive. His two statements about having no humor because he's a Nazgul and:
"Oh, and don't suspect me based on the fact that I'm a Nazgul. I just happened to find this ring in a Cracker Jack box. How was I supposed to know it was one of the Nine?"
This just doesn't look like a Menel of any evil kind (critic or cobbler). He's cleared for today.

End Page 3.

[Ilya]

Begin Page 4 with Matt Nathanson stuck in my head.

Post 124 - Nogrod:

From Menel I get quite innocent vibes. Or at least he plays like he plays and that has sent him to the gallows so many times ealy on just showing him innocent. So I wouldn't like to continue that tradition.

Post 127 - Wild Man:

Menel. Post 32 - Say no lynch the tricksies. No why. Post 92 - Ask Mac why Mac find Menel suspicious. Nazgul banter. Menel, one vote, but Wild Man less willing to vote.

Post 133 - Agan:

Menel. I'm not that worried but I'm not sure enough to label him as innocent either.

Post 136 - Lariren:

Meneltarmacil – I’m suspicious about. For no other real reason than am.

End Page 4.

[Ilya]

Begin Page 5.

Post 167 - Brinn:

Who I won't vote for:

Meneltarmacil: would rather not see him Day One lynched...he gets lynched early too often

Post 170 - Menel:

To be completely honest, I have no idea who to vote for. Phantom seems innocent enough, though I wouldn't automatically trust him just because he's the phantom.

Boro hasn't shown any warning signs either.

Macalaure has some kind of odd suspicion of me. Could be innocent Day One behavior, but I still don't like it.

The wild man who be short is being helpful enough, and I like his caveman-speak enough that I'll let him go for now.

He has a good point about Fea, who seems to be going off-topic a lot, speaking in code, and being tricksy as he calls it.

I'm leaning a little towards either Fea or Mac, but not that strongly.

Post 175 - Boro:

Mac doesn't appear like he will be back, I don't like his vote for Menel. Looks like an easy way out to slide by the day.

Post 177 - Menel:

So just what is this thing with Nogrod, anyhow? I don't think everyone but Fea and the phantom should be kept out of the loop on this.

Post 187 - Menel:

Well, phantom and Fea's secrecy is disturbing, but I think I'll let it go for now and see what comes of it later.

++Macalaure

Post 188 - Fea:

In the mean time,

++MENEL

Because there's nobody else I'd rather lynch, so process of elimination dictates...

Post 191 - Agan:

I rather didn't lynch Menel today because I don't find him very suspicious. I think I'm just going to vote Nog. Or Mac.

Post 193 - Sally on Menel:

So of all his 'suspects' (or lack thereof), he votes Mac because Mac suspects him? I lied. Menel does look a bit fishy now. I mean, I may not be happy that people suspect me, but them suspecting me doesn't necessarily make them guilty. Seems much more like a self-preservation tactic than anything else.

I suppose my first three choices are Menel, Nog, and Mac, semi in that order.

Post 197 - Kath:

No idea: Menel

End Page 5.

[Ilya]

Cuz I would be heavenly, if baby you just rescue me now...

Begin Page 6.

Post 203 - Menel:

Well, I really didn't have much to go on about who to vote for, but it was mainly the fact that he didn't expalin much about why he suspected me when I asked him about it that troubled me.

And I'm still waiting to hear what you found regarding Nogrod, Fea, as are all of us. If you found something suspicious, I think everyone deserves to hear it.

Post 206 - Boro to Menel:

Who said what was surmised about Nogrod, between them, was something suspicious?

Post 219 - Wild Man:

As Nogrod useful, Wild Man exhort you: vote Fea-Menel-Mac.

Post 223 - Ilya:

I can't shake the feeling, though, and it's not fair to Gollum, who did post more than once a day, or Nog or Menel who're on my radar because other people put them there.

Post 224 - Opera Ghost:

Are we seriously lynching Nog on Day 1?

++Menel

Post 225 - Sally:

Forgot to say that Menel's last post makes me feel a tad better about him, which is why I tipped the scale toward Noggie. Besides, I'd like to see more from Menel before I/we kill him.

Post 227 - Boro:

--Mac

++Menel

This is no flippant move so if Mith thinks about a mod-fire I would like her to wait for my explanation tomorrow.

Post 230 - Wild Man:

--Fea

++Menel

Post 232 - Sally:

I'm fine with either one, frankly, and there's no way I want a double.

Ack! Rush!

--Noggie

++Menel

End Page 6.

[Macalaure]

Sally - not a critic, I think
Lari - pleasant addition to ww, not suspicious
Fea - suspicious vote yesterday, made headache yesterday, but I'll let her be for now, because I think tp should be able to figure her out before the end
Ilya - too - many - quotes
Brinn - her posts look innocent and helpful, but her vote is suspicious
Kath - same as Brinn, minus the suspicious vote
Aganzir - seems innocent to me
Gwath - suspicious: I need to have another look at him, but right now I think he might come out as my prime suspect for toDay
Shasta - escaped my attention so far
Bowie - escaped my attention, too
Gollum - escaped my attention, too, darnit
tgwbs - I was a bit suspicious of him before, but what he posted toDay so far looks innocent
Boro - I buy his explanation from earlier, so he's off my hook for now
Cailineomer - leaning innocent

This post is mostly for myself to see where I stand and who I need to look at closer. That's what I will do now.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

So ish5 turned into ish8, sorry. I was with my students, then realized I was late for a meeting, then realized I had paperwork that needed to go through, then needed dinner before Bio... But I'm out of Bio an hour early, so here goes:

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

Fea/Phantom. Please explain post 152 and onward discussion, now Noggie, alas, dead.

Okay.

Originally Posted by phantom

I believe Fea was asking if I had noticed that Nog had called himself a Divo. I did, and I tried to encourage the idea later ("He'll show you lot how to sing").

Yes. I saw the Divo thing, then the phantom kept making these hints about Nog, and basically what I intended was two fold:

1) I wanted to subtly discern if the phantom knew something, or if he noticed something.

If he knew something, then I wanted to know if he wanted me to keep quiet about it, or if he wanted me to find a way to extricate Noggin, who I was reasonably certain by that point was quite innocent.

If, however, the phantom had merely noticed something (as in, wasn't the Seer, but had picked up on something I thought I'd caught too), I wanted to get his opinion as to whether or not he agreed with my reaction that Nog was innocent.

I did not, however, at any point want to say "Hey OG, are you the Seer? If so, you dreamed of Nogrod, right? If not, from one ordo to another, do you agree with my assessment that he's trustworthy?" Because that would have put everyone I was concerned/curious about at risk.

Hence the veiled questions toward who I thought had a bit more special of a role ("For the first time ever I'm afraid of the cobbler") than others.

Originally Posted by Ilya

I assume the Fea/Opera Ghost exchange was about TP's Lovers ploy?

Actually, I totally missed the Lovers thing. I thought the phantom was the seer. Turns out he was just the phantom. My bad.

[Boromir88]

One thing: It's really bothering me that almost everyone is focusing on Nogrod's death alone. What about Menel?~Brinn

Or how about just both? You and whoever else can look through the Menel voters, and I with whoever else can look through the Nogrod voters.

We have a lot of info before us, compliments of Ilya.

[Lariren Shadow]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

and I with whoever else can look through the Nogrod voters.

I can make myself useful if you like!

[Macalaure]

Second look at Gwathagor: even though he's sufficiently entertaining, apart from some suspicion against Nogrod since Nogrod criticised him, and one comment on Lariren, Gwath has failed to contribute anything of substance to our cause. Wouldn't a critic try to keep a more helpful face? What is he up to?

Shasta gave very little input yesterday and has yet to appear today. I'm interested in what he has to say.

Last Gollum posted, he had not yet caught up with the game. Let's hope he will catch up today.

Strongbow... I don't know what think of him, that's all I can say.

[Boromir88]

Ok, so who would want to target the phantom on Day 1.

Actually, I totally missed the Lovers thing. I thought the phantom was the seer. Turns out he was just the phantom. My bad.~Fea

I missed the lovers thing too, and now it makes sense why he said no Mac and no sally yesterday. But what made you think seer? I didn't see anything to suggest it. I would imagine if tp was a seer, he'd be out in the open, but he wouldn't make himself a target at night. Also, I doubt he'd draw that much attention about the cobbler. At least not the cobbler of this opera, who would be able to oust him to the wolves. That's my guess about it, I guess we should wait on tp though.

Sally - I've seen sally speak out strongly against tp being an early kill choice. She seems to generally enjoy keeping him around, at least for a couple days. The choice doesn't fit her. I also want to wait to hear some more from sally. I don't think her uncounted late vote should be a reason of suspicion, we're talking about missing the vote by a matter of seconds, and her last post you can tell she was in a rush. Her original vote for Nog, and then retract for Menel, should be looked into.

Lariren - well she's admitted to being completely terrified of him? Oh ok, but that's pretty weak. I have no guess as to what her thought process/style is yet.

Fea - she played a long with him yesterday, I forget who said it (tp maybe?) but she's perfectly capable of acting sweet and loving and then turning around, killing you at night. Similar to sally though, she just generally seems to like having tp around for a little while. I also ask, why not me last night (not to sound me-centered)? Fea was buttering me up as well.

Ilya - I'm sensing a theme here, because Ilya's even lamented about tp not being in villages before. Would she want to get rid of tp early?

Brinn - Somehow I don't see Brinn missing tp all that much, day 1 or day 5, wouldn't matter. Brinn's overall posting today makes me think she's innocent, but I could see this being a Brinn kill.

Kath - Same for Kath, I think she relishes for the chance to have killing power. She seemed to take delight in being able to get rid of me and Nogrod early, in our last stint, and I would expect the same if she had a chance of tp. I know when I have the power to kill, I look to get rid of Kath early, and now I sense the feeling is mutual.

Agan - Doesn't make sense as an Agan target early on. Unless tp was deemed a threat, but that could be said for anyone here. I haven't looked into Agan's posts too much yet, which is unusual as she usually makes a mark in me early. Her comment about laziness looks innocent, I can't picture Agan as a lazy wolf, but she hasn't been normal Agan. May I ask Agan, did your involvement in your last game wear you down a bit?

Gwath - Similar to Kath, his sig should explain it - that conniving, no good, yet brilliant werebear.

Shasta - The Shasta-tp fued seems to be well known. I can see tp being an early target for Shasta. But not for fueding reason, I picture Shasta to be far more calculating then getting rid of someone because of a fued. If Shasta is innocent, he'd want an innocent tp around, if a wolf, he'd want an innocent tp gone.

Strongbow - not sure about him. He's well read and got a great grasp on how people and things work. His cobbler post today looks earnest and honest, I don't have a grasp on him yet.

Macalaure - Kind of similar to Shasta, if a wolf, and if deemed a threat than I think he'd want tp gone fast. However, the way tp didn't want to see Mac (and sally for that matter) be lynched yesterday speaks towards Mac's innocence. Unless tp was targetted because the wolves thought he was the seer, but I'm not convinced that's why tp was targetted. Also, I'd imagine if Mac was a wolf, and believed someone to be the seer, he'd do a little more poking around to try to get the seer to let a hint slip.

Gollum - I have no idea about 'im.

tgwbs and Cailin - I put them together because for these two it's been so long since they've been here, I've forgotten a lot. Add on top of that, I could never get a good read on these two. See with tp, I expect ploys, traps, lots and lots of involvement, for good or bad I may be able to figure it out in a couple days. With Fea I expect chaos and plain out insanity. But for tgwbs and Cailin, I have no idea what you're going to get. The only way I've been able to spot a wolf Cailin was from the hunter's kill, and the only way I knew tgwbs was innocent was when he voted for himself.

That's what's running through my head, make of it what you will. There may not even be anything useful at all anyway. There are a couple variables that muddy it up. That is any critic would see tp as a threat, and thus know they would have to get rid of him sooner rather than later. How soon of would depend upon what they thought his role was...If they believed he was the seer they would want him gone right away, and with no Ranger in the way to stop it, they'd do it right away.

Edit: crossed with Lari and Mac

And Lari be my guest, I may not get to that until tomorrow - so there's your chance to get in something that hasn't already been posted 3 times

[Macalaure]

Cailineomer -> Nogrod

I still think this is probably not a suspicious vote, but I don't have a good picture of the two due to lack of posts.

Mac -> Menel
Nogrod -> Sally
Gwath -> Nogrod (Nogrod 2, Menel 1, Sally 1)

Gwath takes his first-best suspicion and gets the bandwaggon rolling with it. Careless.

Shasta -> tgwbs (Nogrod 2, Menel 1, Sally 1, tgwbs 1)

Said he will explain today. Why do I have the feeling his explanation won't satisfy us...

Wild man -> Fea (Nogrod 2, Menel 1, Sally 1, tgwbs 1, Fea 1)

I don't really understand why the wild man narrowed himself down to Fea and Kath in the end.

Lari -> Ilya (Nogrod 2, Menel 1, Sally 1, tgwbs 1, Fea 1, Ilya 1)

Solely based on her hunch. Ordos do that because they don't have any better. Critics do it to get away with a throwaway vote.

Menel -> Mac (Nogrod 2, Menel 1, Sally 1, tgwbs 1, Fea 1, Ilya 1, Mac 1)
Fea -> Menel (Nogrod 2, Menel 2, Sally 1, tgwbs 1, Fea 1, Ilya 1, Mac 1)

I find her vote less suspicious than Gwath's one, but not by much.

Boro -> Mac (Nogrod 2, Menel 2, Mac 2, Sally 1, tgwbs 1, Fea 1, Ilya 1)

Fair reasoning, fair placement.

Brinn -> Nogrod (Nogrod 3, Menel 2, Mac 2, Sally 1, tgwbs 1, Fea 1, Ilya 1)

The one bad black ugly stain on her white vest.

Kath -> Ilya (Nogrod 3, Menel 2, Mac 2, Ilya 2, Sally 1, tgwbs 1, Fea 1)

Maybe the most innocent-looking vote of all, I'd say.

Sally -> Nogrod (Nogrod 4, Menel 2, Mac 2, Ilya 2, Sally 1, tgwbs 1, Fea 1)

I highly doubt a critic would have made this vote. A very inconvenient spot in the Nogwaggon.

Ilya -> Strongbow (Nogrod 4, Menel 2, Mac 2, Ilya 2, Sally 1, tgwbs 1, Fea 1, Bowie 1)

*goes to look for Ilya's picture in the encyclopedia next to "throwaway vote"*

phantom -> Menel (Nogrod 4, Menel 3, Mac 2, Ilya 2, Sally 1, tgwbs 1, Fea 1, Bowie 1)
Boro -- Mac -> Menel (Nogrod 4, Menel 4, Ilya 2, Mac 1, Sally 1, tgwbs 1, Fea 1, Bowie 1)

Saving Private Nogrod.

Aganzir -> Nogrod (Nogrod 5, Menel 4, Ilya 2, Mac 1, Sally 1, tgwbs 1, Fea 1, Bowie 1)

The placement looks rather evil, but she was after him for a longer time.

Wild man -- Fea -> Menel (Nogrod 5, Menel 5, Ilya 2, Mac 1, Sally 1, tgwbs 1, Bowie 1)

Saving Private Nogrod II.

Sally -- Nogrod -> Menel

Not too little, but too late. Attempt to prevent double lynch. Pretty innocent.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

So phantom, now that you're dead, do you intend to help the good guys or the bad guys? Was it specified that dead-but-still-talking OG is on anybody's side but his own?

I ask this for the same reason I earlier had a question about the Cobbler (but still can't remember what it was. It was a question I ran across whilst rinsing shampoo from my hair before work this morning, but was too busy to ask before it ran off...).

Something...

Cobbler can't spy on himself...
Lover dies, second Lover gets to avenge (I'm having a bad sugar crash at the moment after a really, really long day, so forgive me if I screw this up, I'm just thinking aloud).
Lovers are on their own side, right?
Is one of the Lovers a critic? No, can't be... they're singers.
Are they typical Lovers in that they want to win? That is what Lovers do, yes? I ask this because you remember that the only Lovers game I did, I was an ish-Lover with special powers and rules, so I don't remember what they *should* be.

I still can't remember what my question was.

Oh. No, now I remember...

Does the Cobbler/Spy get to find out the role of the person s/he spies on, or is that information given only to the Critics? Because if the Cobbler knows her/his marks, than there's an extra player on the side of evil who knows that who s/he may or may not be voting for is ordo. Do you follow?

[Macalaure]

Before I retire for today...

Suspicious
Fea
Gwath

Somewhat suspicious
Ilya
Brinn

Nowhere land
Shasta
Strongbow
Gollum
Cailineomer

Somewhat unsuspicious
Lari
Aganzir
tgwbs
Boro

Unsuspicious
Sally
Kath

Originally Posted by Boro

Also, I'd imagine if Mac was a wolf, and believed someone to be the seer, he'd do a little more poking around to try to get the seer to let a hint slip.

This is not really important now, but as a wolf, I would definitely not do that. I'd keep what I suspect for myself and get rid of the offender immediately at night without risking to have anybody suspect the same or, worse, leave a trail to myself by my behaviour. Only my fellows could convince me otherwise (which is why you lived past Day1 in our last village together ).

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Boro

Or how about just both?

I have looked at both. But in the end, it's the Menel voters I find more suspicious. The votes against Noggie (heh, I almost wrote Noogie there) seem more reasonable to me. Of course, I know I'm biased because I voted Nogrod myself. But it's probably in the same way you as a Menel voter are biased.

So, the votes:

Cailin: ++Nogrod

First vote of the Day...her vote post was her only post, so I can't read from it. But it's not particularly suspicious.

Mac: ++Menel

Probably the least suspicious of the Menel voters. His suspicions of him came from the beginning. He voted so early, I doubt he was expecting any sort of bandwagon to occur.

Gwath: ++Nogrod

The two did have a brief scuffle earlier in the Day, so his vote doesn't exactly surprise me. On Day 1 when there aren't strong candidates, any sort of negative interaction with a player can result in a lynch vote.

Shasta: ++tgwbs

Came out of the blue, no explanation. I'd like to hear one when he shows up.

tgwbs: ++Fea

In the post before, he said he wouldn't vote her. And then he does. Why the Legate 180? (yes I'm still using that phrase )

Lariren: ++Ilya

Vote is based on a hunch. Not a strong reasoning, but common for Day One. I'm not worried about her vote.

Fea: ++Menel

Says there's no one else she wants to lynch. Not exactly strong reasoning.

Boro: ++Mac

Says earlier that he doesn't like Mac's vote for Menel.

Brinn: ++Nogrod

Best option of those who already received a vote, plus as I mentioned, Menel was being talked about and I didn't want him lynched. Honestly, I don't think I had great reason behind my vote and on Day 1; I never do. I often do get suspected for my vote and hey, I can't really blame you people...so I won't argue it too much.

Kath: ++Ilya

Seems to suspect her consistently, so nothing unusual jumps out to me.

Sally: ++Nogrod

Of the Nogrod votes, it is her's that looks most bandwaggonish, I think. What I find interesting is that she joins the "suspect Menel" bandwagon earlier and puts him highest on her lynch list, yet votes Nogrod. I can't help but wonder if she did this to make herself look good (by saying she's voting him to prevent a double lynch).

Ilya: ++Strongbow

Based on feeling, his posts seem abrasive. Her vote doesn't have strong reasoning, but that's not what worries me. She spread out the votes even more at a critical time which seems rather safe.

Boromir: --Mac/++Menel

Sort of indicates he'll make an explanation later, though he hasn't yet. I find it very interesting that he originally voted Mac for his Menel vote, then he changes his vote to Menel himself. No explanation, but my guess is to "save" Nogrod.

Aganzir: ++Nogrod

She suspected him all Day, so her vote is no surprise.

tgwbs: --Fea/++Menel

Another "save" Nogrod vote I'm guessing?

Sally: --Nogrod/++Menel

Tried and failed to prevent a double lynch from occurring. Looks pretty innocent, but then again she could be trying to make herself look good.

Non voters:

Strongbow: Seems to have missed the deadline, which happens.

Gollum: Was there at deadline, but chose not to vote due to lack of time. Choosing not to vote is one thing, and if it's a one-time thing I don't mind. But he abstained at a critical time when it looked like a double lynch was possible...I don't care who he would've voted for, he had the opportunity to prevent the double lynch and he didn't do anything.

About this whole "save Nogrod" thing...

It seems that came up when his whole divo comment was brought up via secret code talk. Did you quts really think Noggie was the divo? I don't think he'd be so obvious. It seems to me that this whole discussion which resulted in a switch of votes to Menel was just another ploy. Probably someone has intentions behind the ploy to misguide the wolves, but at the same time I think it's just as likely someone else has intentions to misguide everyone else. So the people who were involved:
tp
Fea
Boro
tgwbs
...Might be innocent or might be guilty. Whatever they are, I'll be watching them...with the exception of tp, for obvious reasons.

So based on votes, in order of suspicious to least suspicious:
tgwbs
Boro
Ilya
Sally
Fea
Gollum
Shasta
Kath
Lariren
Aganzir
Mac
Cailin
Gwath
Strongbow

Also, I must mention I did a double take on Cailin's post toDay because at first I thought it was Shasta which made me really confused. Apparently their avatars are very similar in colour. So apologies if I mix you two up again. But goodness, I should've figured it out immediately what with the Eomer references.

Btw, while I was writing this post I got interrupted by Grey's Anatomy, and on top that I have a headache. I can't even remember everything I wrote I wrote in this post or whether I'm forgetting something I meant to say. And I'm sure I'll x-post with many others, but I don't feel well enough to care..

[the phantom]

A question for Sally...

Quite often you are such an English major. Correcting things, you know. If you type something wrong, you must fix it! You're very consistent about it.

So, if I spot a grammar or spelling mistake from you, should I assume it is intentional?

Answer choices-
A) Ummm... huh?
B) *wink*

Originally Posted by Fea

So phantom, now that you're dead, do you intend to help the good guys or the bad guys? Was it specified that dead-but-still-talking OG is on anybody's side but his own?

Yes, I'm on my own side in a way.

No, no- I won't be attempting to mislead you (lynch wrong). Not at all. I will give honest commentary on the songs you weave, but I shall refrain from all out attack or defense. I will interact though. I may even attempt to stir some things up.

Basically, you all can trust me. But I will not throw my weight around.

I will certainly post YouTube links though.

Touch me, trust me
Savour each sensation

[Lariren Shadow]

So when "analysis" was mentioned this is what I did. Hope it helps shed light on anything, if not, then well that was a good amount of time gone. Forgive spelling errors, as Fea can attest to, I can't spell to save my life.

Page 1 Analysis:

The only thing that vaguely makes Nog a target for anyone is the phantom’s comment that Nog will help him catch the killers. This is of course if we don’t take the comment about Nog being the divo seriously(which not a lot of people did).

Page 2 Analysis:

The only thing I get is a growing animocity between Gwath and Nog from this page. Which has been stated. And the idea of a double lynch being good(though not intended) was actually presented by Nog on this page.

Page 3 Analysis:

Most on this page think he’s innocent, which apparently is not a common occurrence. Cailin votes for Nog based on his indecisiveness, though not sure where that even took place during the game so far. Interesting vote choice actually. The Wild Man thought he was innocent even though Nog accused Gwath based on nothing. Fea makes a good point about him being the voice of reason as well.

Page 4 Analysis:

The phantom suspects that Nog, Fea, Mac, and Boro are up to something. But from what I’ve read there hasn’t been that much going on between them. Agan then comments on how the behavior of Nog is supicious based on the faulty logic of Gwath’s guilt and the logic of the double lynch.

It seems people latched onto Agan’s comments about those accusations. After that Shasta thinks of voting for Nog but doesn’t. Then the whole Fea and the phantom makes people look through the comments and try to find something. Not sure if this was to make Nog look guilty or not, but it was an interesting move by both.

In a side note, I made the spectacular post that says Nog is the seer on this page. Go me. Though I don't think this was by any means reasons for the votes for him(or at least that people mentioned).

Page 5 Analysis:

Pretty much the Fea and the phantom comments keep going with Boro asking about them then Menel saying that everyone else should not be left out. My comment about almost voting for Nog was based off of what Agan said about the Gwath accusations. That’s not to say I still don’t slightly suspect him anyway.

Brinn and Sally both think that Nog is off by this page. Though from reading it doesn’t really seem like he’s done much other than talk about who he thinks is guilty and comment/spare with Gwath. It is said that both Brinn and Sally think Nog is up to something based on his vote and his comments about Gwath. Kath also makes comments and actually didn’t think that what Nog said about Gwath was accusititory but also not sure about Nog’s switching from “voting the quiet one off” to “voting for Sally”. Should be noted Sally did say she was not just suspicious of Nog because he voted for her.

It seems Nog was always in the back of people’s minds as being “off’ or “not right”. By the end of page 5 only Cailin and Gwath had voted for him, for their own reasons(though not really sure what Calian's was).

Page 6 Analysis:

Brinn starts off the page with saying that out of all of those she could vote for Nog was giving off the most wolf vibes. Hence her vote, which, looking back at what she thought, didn’t seem out of the blue. Sally later then votes Nog to stop the double lynch. She was always suspicious of Nog so it seemed logical. Then tgwbs claims this is how Nog is all the time. Makes sense, if claim is true(I have no idea). He seems to have tried to stop the Nog lynching. Ilya than voices that Nog was put on her radar because of what other people have said. Pretty much this is what happened. People tended to side with Gwath about the accusations, then some(alright I did) listened to Agan’s comment about Nog and then people just started going with it.

As for the rest: Agan reasonably votes Nog. And the phantom made a remark about Nog possibly being the cobbler right after the minute turned so that made no sense.

What I have to gleamed from this information: Gwath and Nog began trying to incriminate the other. People began to side with Gwath because something in Nog’s language made him the more reasonable wolf. Agan picked up on that, Shasta did too(though didn't vote for Nog), and then people started voting for Nog with Cailin. Pretty much that vote is the only one that I can’t explain away. Everyone else’s made sense: Gwath would have voted on Nog because of the earlier comments, Brinn made a good case, as did Agan and Sally.

Everyone’s votes for Nog were backed up by what they thought and logical, except for Cailin’s, or is that normal for her/them?

X Posted: with Brinn and the phantom(is that the right comment?).

[Boromir88]

Does the Cobbler/Spy get to find out the role of the person s/he spies on, or is that information given only to the Critics?~Fea

I can't see how the cobbler would be able to pass on info that xe didn't know xeself. (Did I use that properly?) That would make a giant continuity problem within the fabric of the performance.

Only my fellows could convince me otherwise (which is why you lived past Day1 in our last village together ).~Mac

So, is that what happened again last night?

Sort of indicates he'll make an explanation later, though he hasn't yet.~Brinn

Nobody asked...if and when someone does, I would ask that the say "please."

I did tell a lie, that well I should probably come clean with now since it's done and over. Not exactly a lie, more of an exaggeration, but I think it worked - or at least if I'm fooled I will have a clear conscience.

Mac's vote for Menel yesterday reminded me of his prior wolvery and denial about how he ever made a "case" against Brinn. But after stating Day 1 concerns I backed off for the rest of the game, only to be completely manhandled by him the rest of the time. I spent many a night beating myself up for never following up. So, whenever I next saw Mac make a move I thought suspicious, I promised myself I would go through with it. I did, and if he's running me around in circles again, at least I followed through this time, and can feel better about it. Basically, my vote for Mac had no good reason other than to make myself feel better for a prior mistake.

Edit: crossed with Lari

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by the phantom

A question for Sally...

Quite often you are such an English major. Correcting things, you know. If you type something wrong, you must fix it! You're very consistent about it.

So, if I spot a grammar or spelling mistake from you, should I assume it is intentional?

Answer choices-
A) Ummm... huh?
B) *wink*

Erm....bwah???? (Aka option A)


Sorry I've been gone so long. I got hijacked by some friends (okay, it was my idea but one of them is super-talkative so it took a while longer than I'd expected) to watch The Princess Bride and I didn't get to make a post. Onto it now, but I can't promise it will be by any means brilliant. Back soon.

[Boromir88]

Beautiful analysis if I may say so myself Lari

The only thing I get is a growing animocity between Gwath and Nog from this page.

That is something I meant to check up on, after Ilya said:

The first three were the ones that really were instrumental on taking the Gwath/Nog opening sparring (which, when you look at it, is really nothing at all) and snowballing it.

The three that Ilya is referring to are Sally, Agan, and Lari.

I wanted to check up on it because there seems to be a significant contradiction. Ilya says it was blown out of proportions, others have made it out to be a high noon duel.

Which then got me thinking, I really miss the old fire pits, of intense, passionate battles. And that got me thinking, there's been a lot of tentativeness, I'm not remembering any significant sparring of singer vs. singer. Maybe, I'm partially to blame, because I'm slightly crazy and aggressive, but have been a little reserve.

Also, what's been off about Agan, is I know she's pretty feisty too when she gets going, so far I've gotten a laying back, commentary impression. I want a duel, who's up for one?

Those I will refuse to duel are tp, Lari, tgwbs, Mac, and Fea, either because I have no reason to or they could smoke me in a duel and I'd lose. I would welcome a challenge though from Agan, Brinn, or Shasta.

But, before that I ask you let me check up on this contradiction on whether there was much between the Gwath v. Nog yesterday, or if we had people who blew it out of proportion.

Edit: crossed with sally

[Boromir88]

Alright, so the Gwath v. Nogrod yesterday. The actual sparring seemed to be an argument over semantics, thus an argument over meaningless crap. Nogrod asks a question, says it's not an accusation, Gwath says oh but it is, but there is a bit of them ole fire pits between the two that I do see.

So, my question for Ilya, is why did you try to down play it?

Agan, Lari, and sally do use that against Nog, in effect, "snowballing" this vague feeling of discomfort around Nogrod.

And my question for you three is why did you snowball it?

There Brinn is why I'm looking at the Nogrod voters. The origins of the Menel suspiciouns we pretty lousy, but at least there was reason there for some concern.

The origins of the Nogrod suspicion was based off some gut feeling of discomfort and Nog seems "off." Isn't that an even more generic reason, and I don't even care if it's Day 1, that's just baloney.

And finally my question for you Brinn:

One thing: It's really bothering me that almost everyone is focusing on Nogrod's death alone. What about Menel?

Why all the big deal about people who were making a big deal about the Nogrod voters?