Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVIII: The Play’s The Thing…

[tar-ancalime]

tar-ancalime - Flip-flops come to mind.

You know, I don't mind being under a bit of suspicion, but this accusation in particular really rankles. It has been used against me before (in...other villages, also in relation to Day 1 activities).

I think that the people accusing me of...wearing a particular type of sandal...have two things in mind from yesterday:

First, my call for a moratorium on Seer talk. After it was suggested (by Lhuna, I think) that what I really wanted was to suspect anyone who talked about the Seer, I clarified my position: I didn't want to set up a litmus test; I actually don't think talking about the Seer is suspicious; I just think it's counterproductive. That would be the reason for the moratorium: to focus on catching wolves, instead of on other issues. I thought my second post made that clear.

Second, my (admittedly tart) critique of dancing spawn's post. As others have noted, sometimes these "helpful summaries" are nothing but smokescreens for wolves. It's very easy to compile data, write a very long post, and seem to have contributed without actually adding anything new. Having used this tactic myself as a wolf, I was suspicious of dancing spawn's post and I attacked it to see what she would do. Her calm response that she had done it largely to gather her own thoughts (she didn't ignore me, nor did she get defensive), added to the fact that no one else seemed to have a problem with her post, led me to relax my stance. The original post had to be argumentative--how else could I judge the response to it? Leaving out the venom would have guaranteed I'd be ignored.

So please, suspect me all you want--like lmp, I welcome it--but this particular suspicion I don't understand. Especially since in the same post in which she accuses me of flip-flopping, Lhuna writes this:

Of course my position entitles me to a change of mind - a privilege which I might use in a little while, when I've recovered from information overload

Now I know that a princess has certain privileges an ex-leper could never imagine, but I'd like to think I'm just as entitled to change my mind about dancing spawn as she is about anyone else.

[Lhunardawen]

Probably more sensible thoughts...but still not too much so.

1. Anguirel pointed out a possible (uber-subtle) hint that Holby made with regards to her Seership, and admits that it's very easy to pass over it. Could be an attempt to get to our - the innocents' - side, but could also be a bluff. Trying to be helpful while gloating that "Hehe, we found your Seer. Nyahnyahnyah." I'm sure mormegil's familiar with this theory, aren't you, morm? Wasn't at all accurate the first time it was used, but who said it can't be used again?

2. Speaking of morm...(here we go again)...I find his vote for Gil yesterDay a bit unsettling. A safe vote, yes. And we think, "Whoever said an experienced player like morm can't make a safe vote?" Woosh! and away he goes from the suspect list.

3. Oh. I guess I have to answer Glirdan, right? Hey, a princess like me can be forgetful at times. So, looky here, Glirdy!

Like I said, she jumped at me rather quickly. I have the same timezone illness that you have oh fair one. Now, I know I seem to be attacking you a lot, but I must ask, what made you jump at me so much??

Hey, I didn't jump. Not with these high heels, I can't jump. I went into a dramatic rant to defend myself. There's a difference, if you'll look closely.

Besides, is your timezones as grave and crippling as mine? Nyahnyah.

Now this makes absolutely no sense as has been said on numerous occasions. If you believe that I'm innocent, why go and vote for me and say but what can I do? Well, here's a few suggestions:

~Look carefully through ALL the posts and take what you can from them.

I command you to go back to my posts and count the posts that come before them. I thought that Eomer name sounded suspicious, but I wasn't about to vote for someone I haven't heard from yet. Besides, if you're sure that I'm sure that you're innocent, why do you have to question me for voting for you? Just say you suspect me and be done with it.

~Don't vote for someone, say they are probably innocent and then say "but what can I do?"

I'm the princess. You can't tell me to do anything. Got that, musician?

Besides, it was more the odds I was referring to regarding your innocence, not your behavior.

(I am being positively evil!! )

No, you're being positively impertinent, young man. Don't you know to whom you speak?

4. Suspects: Elem/doubleyoupi, Anguirel, Kath, Celuien, tar-ancalime

Sigh. I'm still quite at a loss and it's time for me to go.

I wanted to give you the benefit of the doubt even for just a Day - plus I know what the Mordor you just went through - but your name attracts the plus signs as Celuien's long sticky tongue attracts flies.

++LITTLEMANPOET

P. S. tar-ancalime, I've utilized my own pair of sandals in this post, so I'll no longer suspect you for using yours. However, you remain suspicious for that Eomer vote. Like Nilp said, it could be a wolf-on-wolf vote. On the other hand, it could be a safe random vote. It just doesn't sit right with me, now that I've thought about it.

[Celuien]

This is somewhat unsettling:

Originally Posted by Garin

My intuition is a wolvish one (see my aforementioned past lives) and I saw plenty of it in Boromir's last minute posts. I understand he was saving his skin, but I remember a couple of times I was in the same furry position. I really felt for the guy.

More later. Let me just say... Only a fool would vote to lynch me.

Too much sympathy for the furry type. And a bit too strong on the 'don't lynch me' warning. It sounds like a variation on the old 'lynch me and you'll be sorry' bit used in desparate attempts to avoid the noose. Also odd since elempi seems to be the ead suspect today, and there are a couple of others (probably including me) ahead of him in the ranking.

Anyway, I'm not comfortable with voting elempi. That spirted defense he gave doesn't seem like something from the wolf-lmp repertoire. Although he could be pulling a bluff...

Lhuna, too, doesn't really seem too wolvish right now. I think she makes some good and interesting points in her last post, though I can't follow her vote.

Tar-a has done a good job of explaning herself, I think.

I'm almost certain Aiwendil, Farael and SpM are innocent. Boro is cleared for now by his switch back to usual practice.

My time runs short. Must leave for fly-catching duty at the frog home manufacturing plant. So...

++GARIN

Hopefully I'll make it back in time to chat some more, but I might not.

[Boromir88]

As for Boromir...too many of you seem to be treating it as though Boromir was lynched and found innocent. This did not occur. He is still as suspicious as ever in my eyes.

I doubt this will change your mind, but you read too far into the post, but you are sticking to your guns, so that makes me think you are innocent. I don't think a wolf would continue to stick to their same reasoning if most of the village seems to think you are looking too hard at things.

I for once am beginning to watch my own back with the people who are going along saying there's nothing to make from the post you accuse me for. Which I agree them, mind you, but I find buttering up very suspicious. I think one wolf has done so (perhaps Celiuen or Lhuna fit this)

I'm sure he'll understand. I just can't afford to ignore the blighter. Once you take your eyes off Boromir's worthy, solid posts, they won't be drawn back again by lustre of shock till it's too late. I observed that even for Day 1-and like Eomer I don't see why Day 1 shouldn't be a day for discussion like any other-his posts were unusually flimsy.

Oh I understand , that was at a time with not much action and simply random accusations/seer talk, which I feel like not getting involved in. Then the one thing I did think was strange (Lhuna's post) I jumped to, then it was work time so I was unable to attend for the rest of the day and after this post I won't be back until late, probably half an hour before voting again.

I fear this DAY 1 would turn into a 'Lynch him!'-'No, lynch him!' between lmp and Boro that would cost us two innocents and enough confusion for the Werewolves to hide behind in. How about we back off for a while here?~Nilp

I agree, it definitely occurs to me that the wolves can be sitting back laughing at us while two innocents want eachother's heads, but you know my feeling on lmp...He's gotten me to think real hard with his posts, as I don't want to jump into an irrational decision.

lmp's post certainly has me thinking, I want to believe him, but I also never want to be dooped and fooled by a wolf...that's part of the reason for my strong feeling on lmp. Though my suspicions on Lhuna and Celuien are rising, they vote for those who are facing a lot of suspicion today...

20, now infamous as your "as usual" post, you built a theme and variations, to a crescendo of "too usual", instilling fear. I picked up on that: "Why is Boromir trying to subtly create an additional level of fear in regard to these other people? What's his game?" And the you added "this false seer scares me" ... there's that fear again. I wondered why. Perhaps Boro is actually a little scared of this situation. But maybe he's setting something up very subtly. Hmmmm! So I concluded that you were at least as suspicious as anybody else on Day 1, and more than most. As I've said before, once I make a decision, I ride it, maybe too hard. There you have it.

Which you are looking too hard at, like Anguirel...so you lessen in suspicion I'll say, but I'm certainly not willing to just believe you and accept you with open arms as you may send me to a horrible death at night!

For the record I actually buy Anguirel and lmp's suspicions on me. It wasn't my intent to cause any fear, but I can see how it looks like I did. My first post I did talk about the past village of Salem, them infamous werewolf trials in that mud hole. I don't see how that constitutes me as being a wolf, but I definitely see what you mean by me thinking I was trying to establish fear. You are wrong, because it wasn't my intent, but I can see how you get that impression.

I am more worried about those who seem to be going with the lmp/boro/anguirel debaucle-(mormegil, Lhuna, and Aiwendil). What I mean it's as if these have attempted to try and get lmp lynched today.

Mormegil starts out the day with this intricate post of the long suspicion of lmp. As I said I doubt a wolf would take such a strong stance of who to go after, and go right after some one, he did know from yesterday's posts that I would be after lmp and Aiwendil said we should look at those who voted for me. So, he did know their were suspicions established on lmp and perhaps this is his attempt to get everything going against him. But, morm has backed down from his suspicions now after hearing lmp, so I don't think him that suspicious as the other two I will mention.

Lhuna puts me in the innocent category and now votes for lmp, seemingly riding on the suspects of others.

Aiwendil has been doing a clever job of keeping fairly away, yet still seems to be egging it on. He doesn't want to commit fully to accusing lmp, but has done a good job of subtelty saying we should look at him.

Celuien as I think I said above, voted for Garin, who may be starting to get the ball dropping on him as suspicions of Garin have grown.

With all this in mind my suspects (in a jumpled no particular order, but who I will most likely be considering my votes for today...)

Lhuna
lmp
Aiwendil
Celuien

Mormegil I'm still unsure about, and because of that I don't want to rashly lynch him yet, especially since he's good to have around.

Eomer and spawn I am expecting more from our scholarly contributers. And unless I've missed something Farael and Kath too have been really quiet.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

I have some rereading to do before I post more, but first, here are a few thoughts.

Holby's death. As others have said, she wasn't very clear about her dream. However, as most of you seem to think, I agree that she didn't accidentally blurt out anything that would have given away her role. So, either killing her was a random choice of the wolves or then they were after something.

Here's a little discussion I had with Holby.

Originally Posted by Holby #21

Now not always but it seems suspicious when a person wants to hang someone else that had made an arbitrary or even tacky accusation when everyone else feels that it was in jest. In my experience, sometimes the tattletail had done the worst offense.

(That was her answer to Aiwendil's question no.1)

Originally Posted by Holby #43

True, but what I was trying to explain as another wolvish behavior for example:a third person trying to get Mormegil lynched based solely on his obvious joking-type random accusations to get discussions started, especially if the village as a whole feels what Morm did was harmless-that third person seems wolvish.

First we were talking about general situations in a village, but then she took morm as her example (with the italicized 'obvious'). She could have dreamed of him, but it's not certain. Why, morm might be a wolf who thought it would be convenient to kill someone who has just supported him because it would be so silly that no one in full possession of their senses would suspect him because of that.... I mean... Oh, well. (No, I don't find morm suspicious now.)

Now, there's the framing up option. As some of you should know, it's not always a frame-up if a villager's death clearly points at someone. I wouldn't disregard the possibility that either tar-a or Lhuna could be a wolf who got scared of Holby's suspicions. There were other people, too, suspecting those two, but Holby had been pretty quiet about her opinions of other villagers until the post when she voted, so it didn't leave that many clues.


That's it about Holby. I should probably warn you that I'm going to do a summary again as soon as I can whether you like it or not. If you feel that I'm only summarizing what has happened, read between the lines (both literally and figuratively speaking) and you'll see that my opinions are pretty clearly out there. Oh, and so that no one would feel manipulated by the "long post = poster is innocent, short post = poster is guilty" fallacy, I can divide it into smaller pieces if you want to.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

(You clever cats)

Yes, I've been quieter than usual. I'm finding it more difficult to get onto the interne.........vvvvillage these days so please bear with me.

And don't for one moment disregard myself, Kath, spawn and the other quieter villagers. This is looking dangerously like we're going to lynch littlemanpoet, then Boromir, then Garin, then tar, and then whoever else is picking fights with each other. Wolves thrive on village in-fighting so never ignore the villagers who are staying well out of it.

I know that implicates myself but I think it's a point well worth making.

Formendacil is looking very tricksy to me at the moment. I'm away to 'check the archives', so to speak. Be back quite soon (hopefully).

[mormegil]

I'm back and fairly confused. I still don't know why we haven't heard from Kath and Farael. I really want to hear from them before I vote. As it stands I still suspect LMP, but also Tar-A though I'm confused about her too. However Celuien is still hanging around in my mind as is Anguirel among others.

I appreciate Eomer's comments about not ignoring the quiet ones. The biggest problem is that it's hard to lynch them because of lack of evidence, but I will begin to go after them if nobody else seems overly suspicious in my mind.

[Anguirel]

Right. I think I might embark on one of those dreaded lists. But before then I do have a major point to make.

Although I think the noble Viscount Kettle, aka the Saucepan Man is too quick to dismiss the case against Boromir88, he does make a great deal of sense when he suggests we look in closer detail at the Gil-Galad voters. For a lot who have, after all, succeeded in lynching an innocent, they're sounding remarkably pious and self-justifying today.

Vide mormegil's patrician little remark about Gil always being an unwitting cobbler anyway. However accurate this is, it is misleading. It hides the fact that you, morm, did the obvious thing with the obvious result.

It's no coincidence that the Gil-Galad voters coincide heavily with the voters suggesting that the Boromir bandwagon was founded on little or no evidence. The possible misdeed of the Boro-voters-who might still be right-is to them a far more suspect misdemeanour that their own understandable mistake.

But come on. Lynching Gil-Galad is the action of a sleepwalker, a mere reflex, not a case. "Stop behaving like a fool! Die!" Is there really so much fabulous evidence in that? So much more tactical than wanting Boromir to at least undergo a proper test? Before I mentioned my leading suspicion, Boromir was completely out of the picture. No one even mentioned him. And that's never a good sign.

Having said that, were I a wolf I personally wouldn't have voted to lynch Gil-Galad. Such a dull course of action.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

Having said that, were I a wolf I personally wouldn't have voted to lynch Gil-Galad. Such a dull course of action.

Interesting that you say this and yet didn't vote Gil. Are we to assume that you are a wolf then Master Anguirel?

Again I do not regret my vote for Gil, while not a wolf I think it helps the village in the long run the wolves probably would never kill him and we would be left with an unhelpful enigma. Much time of our days would be wasted in debate as to whether or not we should kill him. So I made a preemptive strike.

[Anguirel]

A facile point, mormegil. Yes, if you like, of course you're entirely free to think me a wolf.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I picked on Formendacil in my last post, but looking back at his contribution this day he does explain his vote for Boromir very well. I am inclined to back off him for now, although I was suspicious of the whole Day One is unhelpful play he made yesterday. It all seemed like a bit of an excuse to not look at him critically. Though having indeed looked at him critically, he seems to pass.

Which, in itself, makes me suspect him—as if he said 'Don't look at me! But in case you do, I've got it covered nonetheless.' Too clever for his own good? Is Formendacil clever?

I guess anything can be construed as wolvish.

[tar-ancalime]

I agree with Eomer of the Rohirrim that the four most likely suspects for the day seem to be:

Garin
me
littlemanpoet
Boromir88

With one exception I don't really see what all the fuss is about.

lmp is being argumentative, chimerical, and caustic. That's business as usual and no real reason to suspect him, though a lmp-free village would certainly be less confusing. He is expecting us to take his word for it when he says things like "but that's what I've thought all along!" It's the Gaurhoth equivalent of "I meant to do that!" or "The sun was in my eyes!" But this ground has been covered by others and I won't rehash it. It strikes me as entirely in character for him and no reason to suspect him....any more than usual.

The suspicion that seems to be building against Boromir88 continues to baffle me. I've never lived in a village with him before, so perhaps there's an elephant in the room that everyone but me can see, but from where I sit there's nothing outstanding about his posts. That doesn't mean I think he's innocent, mind you--I'm just not sure where the suspicion comes from.

I'm engendering suspicion, as I always seem to (sigh). I honestly don't know why. The flip-flop thing i've addressed. I can only really find one other concrete suspicion: Aiwendil doesn't like that I'm "maneuvering." Well, what on earth are the rest of us doing? Perhaps I'm not as adept at it as some. But yeah, I"m maneuvering. I'm manipulating. I'm trying to get people's goats a little bit. It's largely because I don't think we've made a lot of progress since yesterday. I don't have a clear picture of anyone yet; I'm still fishing for reactions and trying to get to know everyone. So if that means I'm suspicious, that's cool.

Garin, on the other hand, seems to be acting deliberately to obscure things. In response to my request that he explain his vote for Boromir88, he suggested (as I predicted) that Boro and I were wolves in alliance; he then wrote this (emphasis mine):

It was the first day, and who says I will vote the same way? Boromir is not a proven innocent... unlike Gil.
My intuition is a wolvish one (see my aforementioned past lives) and I saw plenty of it in Boromir's last minute posts. I understand he was saving his skin, but I remember a couple of times I was in the same furry position. I really felt for the guy.

I explained that I had little time to listen to our fellow villagers and quickly perused their comments. I could just as easily be questioned for getting on a Lhuna bandwagon or killing an innocent Gil. I evened things up, as I said, to examine the last minute votes and posts.

I hope to explain why I found Boro's posts suspicious, but I must go now. I have less time for village than I hoped, kill me if you must.

What he essentially says is that, like lmp, he's using his "intuition" to channel some kind of weird spectral suspicion against Boromir88. He didn't listen to anyone else; he saw things that bothered him in Boro's last posts. He "hope[s] to explain," but (shockingly) this does not occur. He then returns to post several times about the False Seer, still not having provided this mysterious explanation. Keeping the suspicion of Boromir alive while not revealing anything? Yeah, my vote today has got to go to

++Garin

[Anguirel]

No, I don't buy this Garin thing. His character is not that of a wolf in sheep's clothing, but a bit more subtle than that-a Hyrcanian rhinoceros in wolf's clothing in sheep's clothing. He's a natural wolf, but also a natural unsuccessful wolf, from what I've seen of him.

Basically tar-ancalime is accusing him for using an approach based on empathy and extensive perusal of space between lines. But sometimes I think such a tactic can be of use to the village, as I've said many times before. Logic is a cesspit. Sometimes people would get on faster if they listened to the "weird spectral urges", rather than employing their vaunted logic to do the thing they've already done the last seventeen times.

If a Gil vote yesterday was uninspired and clunking, and a Boromir88 vote was, and to hear many, is, fairy-chasing, then perhaps a compromise can be found in the third most successful bandwagon-Lhuna's. I now intend to investigate the evidence, the history and the ramifications of the Case Against The Princess...

One more point before I do so-I distrust any and all posts, like tar-ancalime's above, that take an extremely narrow premise and refuse to broaden it. tar limited herself to considering three options. That's the kind of play that gets innocents killed for sterile, traditional reasons.

[littlemanpoet]

Lhuna's list of innocents is too long for so early in this holocaust. It possibly means she must know something. Only werewolves know that much.

[Farael]

Note to self: do NOT try to heat a big ball of 1,2,3.4-aminothiatriazoles at temperatures over 130 degrees C.

HA! Try to find my anagram there.... and while you are at it, try declaring in clear words whether or not you are a wolf.

Just to clear something Lhuna said... no, even though I mentioned the hunter as a substituent, I mentioned it as a reactant with the wolves to form a happy village or something like that... I still want to try that reaction but it might have to wait a little.

Does anyone else feel Garin's not-so-subtle hint very unsettling? I'm confused, had he never been in a wolf-infested village in other lives of his I would understand, but as an experienced player he should know better! Still, of course, I am not quite certain Aiwendil is innocent. I know, this might be 'overkill' and what saved my acid-burned rear-end yesterDay might be bad today yet... I do believe that there is something fishy (or should I say wolfy?) with this villager.

I don't think I'll vote for him toDay given that he is not likely to get lynched and he is not the only suspicious one but... I will be back soon with more evidence against him. I think I can still dig up some more.

And just remembering something that happened in a village of werewolves infested by heroes, I beg Aiwendil does no take my 'attacks' personally... I'm just playing the game, whatever I say is not meant to imply in any way what I think of you outside of the village.

[Anguirel]

If that's serious, LMP, it's as cheap as the point morm scored against me a second ago, or against you about the silver knives! Be a tad more reasonable...

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

As promised... (Note: I'm cross-posting with everyone after post #165)

Anguirel: Although Holby suspected Lhuna and tar-a, doubts that she dreamed of either. Possibly dreamed of morm, but that doesn't seem very likely to him. Thinks the wolves spotted Holby to be the Seer, asks if/ suggests that the False Seer should reveal themselves providing a known innocent. Thanks Nilp for suspecting him, because it may make him stay alive longer. Reminds that Boromir isn't a proven innocent and agrees with Eomer that Day 1's discussion didn't have to differ so much of any other Day's discussion and (therefore) he found Boro's posts flimsy. Later agrees with Aiwendil that the Seer is useless except as a proven innocent and they shouldn't reveal themselves yet.

- If the wolves really spotted Holby because of the quote... Well, I'm speechless. My thoughts on the Seer matter are in post #165. -

Celuien: Didn't suspect that Holby was the Seer, thinks it was just a lucky chance for the wolves that they picked Holby. Thinks Holby didn't dream of morm and it would be better for the False Seer to stay hidden for now. Says Lhuna's behaviour was a bit strange and is puzzled by lmp's, explains why she was involved in speaking of the Seer yesterDay. Votes for Garin because of "too much sympathy for the furry type" and his 'don't lynch me' post. Isn't comfortable with voting for lmp because of his defence which, however, might be a bluff. Doesn't find Lhuna wolvish now and thinks tar-a's "flip-flop" explanation is good. Is almost certain that Aiwendil, Farael & Sauce are innocent and clears Boro for now.

morm: Agrees with Ang that Holby didn't dream of tar-a, but is suspicious of her anyway and makes a case against lmp (#110). Doesn't understand the Boromir bandwagon, but tries to look closer at him toDay. However, finds lmp more suspicious than Boromir. Thinks that if lmp's a wolf, tar-a probably isn't. Later doesn't suspect lmp so much anymore, suspects tar-a and isn't convinced by the accusations made against Garin. Doesn't regret voting for Gil because eliminating him isn't that big a loss, admits that he had forgot the double lynching rule, too. Says the False Seer is useless now, but it could be helpful is s/he came forward thus protecting the true Gifteds.

- Well, it's most important that the Ranger stays alive. The wolves attacking the Hunter might be a good think for us if s/he chooses the target well. I agree with most of the villagers that it's too early for the False one to reveal themselves that it would really benefit us. -

Glirdan: Says his part in Gil's death was completely randomness and hopes it isn't held against him.

- Really, now? You just happened to pick Gil who fell in your 'silent people' category. Besides, in your post #14 you said it was mostly random. I'm not holding anything against you (yet), but it would be nice if you stood behind your actions. -

Says his suggestion to lynch the quiet ones was a mere ploy to make people talk which kind of failed, wants to look at Lhuna and agrees with lmp saying that if the wolves are smart, they don't use the quiet/moderate/talkative combination.

- Actually, the problem with that kind of thinking is that the way the wolves act depends on who they are. If the wolves are talkative by nature, it looks weird if two of them start holding back. If the wolves are smart, they act like they would act when they're innocent. -

Answers Aiwendil's questions echoing the answers that people said yesterDay. Later repeats that he's suspicious of Lhuna and is glad that Ang liked his singing. Doesn't understand why Boro voted for Gil and says that "everyone knows fully well that if it comes down to a tie, the person to reach that number of votes first would be lynched. Your [Boro] vote sealed Gil's fate."

- Well, if you read the posts before yours, you might have noticed that there really was confusion about the double lynch rule. Also, as you said, Gil would have been lynched anyway, so Boro's vote did not seal Gil's fate. -

Votes for Lhuna.

Aiwendil: Had no idea that Holby was Gifted, agrees with Ang that the False Seer should probably come forth. Says Day 1's voting record needs to be looked at, somewhat understands the votes for Gil, but thinks that there would have been more suspicious villagers to vote for. Doesn't understand the Boromir bandwagon although again agrees with Ang that Boro's posts looked more helpful than they were, but that's not enough evidence. Doesn't find Ang's vote suspicious, but is more worried of Form, Garin and lmp's votes that forced Boro to vote for Gil and seal his fate. Although he finds lmp's talk against Boromir odd, is ready to give him the benefit of doubt because of his Day 1's helpfulness. Is most suspicious of Form, Garin and tar-a, who seemed to be testing different approaches, pluse her vote could be suspicious. Isn't suspicious of Glirdan anymore. Says his three questions were supposed to encourage serious discussion.

- Well, I found the question no.2 rather odd. Of course we want to keep the Gifteds alive as long as possible, so as for their strategy: do not step forward and say: "Hey, I'm the Ranger", or "Wolves, if you want to kill the Seer, pick me." Why was it all of the sudden relevant to start talking about how the Gifted's should act? That's up to the Gifteds to decide, and that question doesn't speak for Aiwendil's favour. -

Thinks the Boromir lynching campaign looks suspicious, thainks the voting record is most helpful now. Finds Form, Garin and lmp wolvish based on their votes, sayd lmp or Farael might be the False Seer. Explains that the information the False Seer gets in actually no information at all. Doesn't apologise his part in the Seer talk because thinks it didn't do any harm and it's better than random accusations.

- I agree that serious conversations are most helpful, but the Seer talk didn't make us much wiser. However, random accusations cause reactions that may prove helpful later. I hope we might get something out of the Seer conversation later, too. -

Thinks Holby's death was just a lucky pick for the wolves.
Later thinks that lmp sounds genuine, but might still be a wolf. Doesn't know what to think of tar-a, but she seemed wolvish on Day 1, suspects Form and Garin the most.

Boromir: Thinks Holby's death might have been intended to set up tar-a or Lhuna. Gives his thoughts of every villager, finds lmp, Lhuna, Garin and Celuien most suspicious. Says Form's vote makes sense, but lmp's is odd. Thinks the Seer talk was orchestrated by wolves trying to distract us from concentration on them. Because of that, suspects lmp, Ang, tar-a, spawn and Celuien.

- As I said in my posts #41 and #93, I agree that the Seer talk was mostly unnecessary. What you say makes sense, but I'd add Aiwendil and perhaps Farael on the list, though. -

Finds tar-a's apology odd. Explain his vote to Glirdan, says lmp's caught in a trap and he won't give enough reasons for suspecting Boro. Thinks Ang's innocent because he sticks to his opinion of Boro, says that buttering up is suspicious and perhaps one wolf (Celuien or Lhuna) has tried to defend him.

- That sounds plausible. I think there was a reason to vote for you, Boro, but it was hardly better than any other reason on that Day. Therefore I think it's odd to take so absolute sides on this matter. -

Agrees with Nilp's "'Lynch him!'-'No, lynch him!'" scenario and understands why lmp and Ang are suspicious of him. Mains suspects are Lhuna, lmp, Aiwendil and Celuien, is still unsure of morm. Wants to hear more from Eomer and spawn (and Kath & Farael).

~INTERMISSION~

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Ha ha! What a majestic title!

So this post is about Farael. His actions and the response to those actions have been quite interesting.

He comes out with a blistering attack on Aiwendil, which — while I don't think is particularly strong — is still pretty interesting. Nevertheless, general reaction to the attack is peculiar:

-Aiwendil shrugs it off, basically saying 'You're wrong'

-Celuien deduces that Farael is very probably innocent.

-Nilpaurion declares that Farael is likely innocent.

-Lhunardawen declares that Farael is innocent.

-No-one else questions Farael.

I thought that maybe Farael was one of the Seers and had dreamt of Aiwendil. We now know that he is not the True Seer and I'd like him to re-evaluate his case against Aiwendil today; see if he attacks or retreats.

But why has nothing come of the Farael controversy? As soon as LMP makes his case against Boromir people attack on both sides; as soon as Mormegil attacks LMP many many words are exchanged and suspicion is thrown on all sides. What's so different about this case?

Because if a wolf can simply attack someone particulary strongly — by posting convincingly that so-and-so is a wolf — and that's all he/she has to do in order to be labelled 'Too bold to be a wolf', then he/she's going to get an easy ride.

I could be way off here; but it's something that struck me as I read the entire thread again. There seems to be a discrepancy here. Please share your thoughts.


Edit to add: Farael has just posted but I didn't see it.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

And here we go again.


Formendacil: Says Ang's vote for Boro played a big part in his own voting; he wanted to even up the numbers. Admits that it was a "safe" vote, but reminds others of the nature of Day 1. Thanks Boro and spawn for leaving him out of their posts, says that if he were w hiding wolf, they would be his accomplices. Defends Garin by saying that he is likely to be innocent, but isn't ready to say that he's not a wolf. Tells that he judges people based on their usual way to act. Says being suspicious is a good surviving tactic and he likes living on the edge.

- Yes, it might be a good surviving tactic for an individual to act somewhat suspiciously on purpose. However, wouldn't it be more useful for our village to act as helpful as possible and try to find the wolves? -

Doesn't think it's wise for the False Seer to step forward this early.

Garin: Explains his vote and wonders why tar-a is so concerned about it. Thinks Boro's last posts on Day 1 were wolvish because he could relate to them. Says that he could as easily be questioned for joining Lhuna or Gil bandwagon, but he voted to even things up. Says only a fool would lynch him. Thinks we should look at those who weren't involved in bandwagons. Thinks the False Seer shouldn't follow the dreams anymore but use their own logic instead. Finds it suspicious that lmp seemed to be "open to the option of Falsie coming forth". Says it would be easy for a wolf to claimto be the False Seer.

- Well, in that case I suppose the real False Seer would reveal themselves and we'd lynch the most suspicious one or both. I'm not sure if the wolves want to do such a sacrifice to get rid of the False Seer. -

littlemanpoet: Answers morm's accusations and is still suspicious of Boro. Based on Day 1's events thinks that Sauce, Farael, Aiwendil, spawn and Ang are probably innocent, and Glirdan, Nilp, Lhuna, Eomer and tar-a may be innocent. Finds morm, Form, Boro, Kath, Garin and Celuien suspicious. Later says that he voted Boro because found him wolvish (and still finds), but admits that he could be wrong ("who couldn't"). Finds Garin even more suspicious than Boro based on his post #137. Finally gives reasons for his suspicions of Boromir (look at #20). Thinks the False Seer should keep dreaming and wonders how morm and Boro will use that statement against him. Leans towards morm's innocence and agrees that the False Seer isn't useful after all.

Sauce: Lists the votes, doesn't think that the False Seer should reveal themselves yet saying that their dreams might still be of some use. Finds the Boro bandwagon strange, but the votes for Gil even more suspicious. Thinks Glirdan's vote for Gil is too risky for a wolf, though. Corrects the misconception of a tie, thinks at least 1 wolf voted for Gil or was saved by other one voting for Gil. Suspects morm, Kath, Celuien, lmp and Lhuna. Thinks the wolves were just lucky to pick Holby. Says some of morm's points of lmp are good, agrees with Boro that it's possible that the wolves were responsible of the Seer talk which points to Aiwendil, lmp and maybe Celuien.

Nilp: Finds the Boro bandwagon oddly flimsy and hurried, says Gil bandwagon was quite predictable, but Kath and Celuien's votes seem unreasoned, but not as much as those in the Boro wagon. The votes for Lhuna were really unexpected, but thinks (hopes) that everyone who voted for her are innocent. Clears Farael for now, thinks tar-a's vote for Eomer might be a wolf voting for another wolf.

- Sounds plausible, especially because I think there's something wrong with Eomer, and I'm going to go analyzing his posts when I'm done. -

Thinks that Lhuna and Aiwendil are innocent, most suspicious of lmp, And, tar-a, Form and Garin. Later says that lmp is defensive, but that's quite understandable, and the quarrel between lmp and Boro may result the deaths of two innocents. Finds tar-a susicious, says Garin is Garin, but will keep an eye on him, isn't suspicious anymore. Votes for Ang because his Boromir campaign seemed too unreasoned.

- Trio Doom! Quite fitting name for the wolves. Oh, and please keep off the grass. My sheep are trying to eat. -

tar-ancalime: Doesn't think looking at those who voted for Gil helps much because he was an easy target.

- I think that's a reason why we should look at them. It's too easy to hide there. -

Doesn't understand the Boro bandwagon, wants lmp and Garin to explain their votes, apologises if her post make Boro and her look like fellow wolves. Explains her apology by quoting Garin and explains her "flip-flopping".

Lhuna: Thinks those who voted for her are innocent, poses a rhetorical questionabout safe votes, thinks Glirdan is either innocent or a dumb wolf. Suggests tha Ang and Glirdan are connected, Farael's the Hunter, suspects lmp, Ang, Kath, Celuien, Garin and tar-a, and finds Sauce, morm, Eomer, Aiwendil, spawn, Boro, Glirdan and Farael innocent, but says that her opinions shouldn't be taken too seriously. Wants the False Seer to come forth only if they are about to get lynched. Thinks Ang might be guilty because he tried to explain the wolves' pick by quoting Holby, finds morm's vote unsettling and answers Glirdan's questions of her vote jokingly. Votes for lmp, agrees with Nilp that tar-a's vote for Eomer might be a wolf on wolf vote.


That's it, I think. If I accidentally left something out, it's because my brain has softened for staring at the comp... eh, palantir too long.

[Garin]

1) I suspected Boromir due to his earliest comments. I was able to read all of the posts but not thoroughly and I certainly read the posts concerning and authored by my votee for that day.

2) Memories light the corners of my mind. I found the last minute posts by Boromir wolvish because I have been there. For those who point out my "I felt for the guy" comment as being wolvish, I guess you are conceding that Boromir is a werewolf.

3) I didn't intend to hint that I was a gifted. I am an ordinary baker with not much to live for and really don't care if you lynch me but only for my devotion to the village's success.

4) I think out my decisions but I regret lacking the time to document them to serve and educate the village. I've had last minute things evolve and have nary the time to sit at a computer for too long. Sorry village. I loathe the unhelpful and I'm trying not to be one of them.

5) I currently suspect tar-ancalime and Boromir and truly want to expound but the baking must come first.

As for Celuien. You'd rather be an animal than a respectable trade? Interesting. But I don't have enough suspicion just yet.

Edit: Changed "baking must be come first."

[Anguirel]

Eomer's post on Farael is most interesting-especially as people have used similar logic to say I'm probably innocent because of the vehemence of my attacks on Boromir. In both cases, Eomer is right that the assumption should be questioned.

Now...it's interesting to see that all the voters on the Lhuna bandwagon have generally kept out of the Boromir/LMP controversy. This lot are, or would like to be pictured as, "the Voice of Reason".

Saucie has behaved as diplomatically as his occupation would suggest, rubbishing the Boromir case while investigating the Gil-Galad bandwagon.

Eomer has posted many observations of clarity and sanity like the one above, and also at a timely moment reminded the village at large to remember to look at relatively quiet contributors, like him and Spawnowen.

Lady Spawn herself has weathered the criticism of her method and ploughed on teasingly with her impartial analyses.

My point is, you may wonder? Well, I'm not sure. It's interesting that the Lhuna voters all occupy sensible mediating roles, but rather than pointing to their guilt I think it may simply imply that the Lhuna cause was more astute than the Gil-Galad bandwagon, and, ah, less limbstretching than the Boromir bandwagon.

So ultimately, I'm strongly tempted to vote Lhuna this evening, and also Nilp-though I am hampered in both cases by the fact that they suspect me and it may seem to be spite. But it isn't, honest. It's the recognition that attacking Boromir was a gamble that doesn't appear to have been very lucrative, more's the pity...

[Farael]

Post#112
Says he’s concerned of those who voted against Boromir. He argues for Anguirel’s innocence (given that it was Day 1 and he was spreading his votes… I believe that it has also something to do with Anguirel being dangerously smart as an enemy) and so suspects mostly Formendacil, Garin and LMP. Then he drops LMP off the list (does anyone else find a pattern here?) and goes after Formendacil and Garin…. Which are fairly safe accusations to make. Formen has been under a bit of suspicion and Garin seems to be most skilful at getting himself killed or at least under suspicion than Nilp.

Originally Posted by Aiwendil on post 112 as well

The other person I'll be watching carefully today is Tar-Ancalime. YesterDAY, she was my top suspect. While I admit that the DAY 1 evidence was slim, I still can't help but feel that she has been "testing" various approaches (moratorium on Seer talk, suspicion of Spawn) and then very quickly backing off when they come under fire. Her vote for Eomer looks like a typical, random DAY 1 vote - but it also looks like a fairly safe vote for a Wolf.

Yet another safe suspicion by Aiwendil. And if I’m not confused, Aiwendil himself has been a little flippy-floppy as well. That by itself is not a bad thing on Day 1, but again, it all adds up, little by little.

Now on to post#139

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

It occurs to me that I didn't offer an answer to my own question 1 from yesterday

I can’t recall who started the argument of Boromir trying to look helpful while doing very little but…. Look!! Right there!! If that’s not trying to be helpful while being quite innocuous then I’m the True Seer

And here we have a little contradiction

Originally Posted by guess who?

It seems to me that voting is the one place where the wolves can't hide. A wolf, it seems to me, will be willing to say anything. But what a wolf fears is the hangman's noose - whether it be 'round his/her own neck or a compatriot's. To put it another way: wolves and villagers will probably sound more or less alike, but they won't vote alike

Somewhat true, very safe thing to say and yet…. Also somewhat wrong. It would be a BIG mistake to disregard the accusations and reasoning because you can also find werewolves in there. Werewolves cannot bandwagon with other people’s ideas for ever because sooner or later they will get lynched for bandwagonning (a cardinal sin of werewolf) and therefore they ought to bring up new ideas, new accusations… and of course, they are limited on who they can point their fingers at. By the way, I ask of you fellow villagers… what have I been saying about today’s featured acusee (Aiwendil I mean) for a while now? He has been all to willing to forgive some and accuse others.

Aiwendil himself realizes his last comment was not the best because he follows it with

Originally Posted by Aiwendil!!

Having said that, it would be foolish to look at the votes and ignore the discussion. No doubt there are signs of wolvishness to be found in the discussion. But it seems to me that those signs will be harder to read there than in the voting record

Flip Flop!!!! Right there!! Wasn’t Aiwendil himself the one to argue that flip-flops were suspicious? He’s saying A LOT of things and yet adding VERY LITTLE. Look at it, he says that the voting record is the chief tool for finding the wolves, as wolves would be willing to say anything to defend themselves, then he says that it would be foolish to ignore the discussion, then he says that the voting record is still the best way to go.

First of all, I would assume that most of the experienced gamers know all of this. And I don’t think we have any rookies in this village, do we? Second, it was a flip-flop… definitely a flip-flop

Third, YesterDay Aiwendil made a comment of the Seer being most useful dead (happy now?) now he makes a comment about the votes being the most useful way of finding wolves…. Does anyone else get the feeling that he is trying to restrict the range of information we work with? Ever so subtly and without totally compromising in favour of his own ideas, he hints that maybe we should stop paying so much attention at what was said and pay more attention at what was voted.

Well Aiwendil, are you afraid that someone will dig-up something you said that you rather left forgotten? And furthermore, it’s Day 2… while we have SOME voting evidence, we are still pretty ‘naked’ with regards to voting patterns and such.

On the same post (136) he expresses concerns for chiefly for Formendacil, somewhat for Garin and then LMP…. But the accusation against LMP is the most ‘watered’ one. Pretty weak as accusations go.

A little more down his post, Aiwendil defends his role in yesterDay’s seer-talk. Nothing wrong with that, besides the fact that he seems all too willing to drop the subject.

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

In the event, it turned out to be wasted, but only because we were so unlucky as to have our True Seer die on the first NIGHT

(bolding by me)
It’s not all said and done, the Seer talk might still bring up some information!! I wouldn’t disregard ANYTHING said as possible evidence… as you can probably see.

On to post 154

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

So LMP has responded to the accusations coming his way. He sounds genuine to me. But, then, I don't doubt that he'd make a clever wolf, or that he'd be able to modulate the tone of his posts to suit his needs.

The fact that Aiwendil rises LMP’s name so often and yet accuses him so little is making alarms sound all over the place. This last quote, for example, says that LMP sounds innocent to him, but then LMP is clever enough to sound innocent when he is not. Really good move if you are a wolf. If LMP gets lynched, he can say that he still had some suspicions… if LMP is forgiven by most of the village, he can say that he did not really suspect him after all. This is followed by

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

And I keep coming back to what I mentioned earlier - that the one place where a wolf can't hide is in his vote - though he can, of course, try to explain it away the next DAY

Well, again, saying lots of words and very little information… the wolf can’t hide in his vote, but the wolf can try to explain it. See? Both sides of the coin, he might just be a very, VERY cautious villager…. But then, so much caution points towards him being a wolf trying to sound reasonable and at the same time, not give anything for others to really rally around.

LMP claims that he suspected Boromir before Ang posted his suspicion; he then expresses exasperation when this claim is doubted. Now, LMP, it seems to me that no one is denying that you could very well have come to suspect Boromir before Ang's post. For my part, your story (i.e. simply not enough time to post earlier) is a perfectly believable one. But that doesn't mean that it's true. The fact remains that we had no evidence that you suspected Boromir until very late in the DAY. Surely you acknowledge that, from out perspective, your claim to have suspected him earlier could be a wolf's frantic attempt at backpedaling and getting out of a tight squeeze.

Having said that, I don't think I'll be voting for LMP today. My reasoning is that, so far, the only real piece of evidence I can find against him is his sudden anti-Boromir stance. Everywhere else, he has (to me at least) appeared to be a genuinely helpful innocent. If he's a wolf, he's doing a remarkable job of playing that role. As of toDAY, I think there are others suspects that it would be better to look at.

The first paragraph had me thinking for a moment that I was aiming my sights at the wrong person…. Look!! He is actually suspecting LMP and in a very careful way, he’s saying that LMP could easily be ‘back-pedaling and getting out of a tight squeeze’

Then the second paragraph comes and AGAIN, Aiwendil lets LMP off the hook. His last sentence seems pretty innocent but given my thoughts that he might be trying to subtly manipulate the village’s eyes to focus towards a certain point (away from the seer ‘till he’s dead, away from the discussions and into the voting… and now away from LMP and against easier targets?) I find it fishy as well.

By the way, having finished my reading and accusing based on Aiwendil’s posts, I find something that spawn brings up very interesting(no my friend, you are not in the clear just yet, I’m finding you useful for the time being and that’s it) If I’m not mistaken Aiwendil suggests that I might just be the False Seer (which I’m afraid I am not). Wouldn’t it be great for a wolf if I were? All my previous accusations are moot (hey, he was the false seer acting on false information!!) and he’s on the clear for a couple of days (come on, it was the False Seer thinking I’m a wolf, don’t pay attention to accusations based on that)

Ok, still catching up…. Eomer, you are right… I am playing the safest game for a wolf because no wolf would be THAT bold… I’ll keep it in mind if I ever AM a wolf, but this time I’m afraid I’m not.

Finally, I just had a moment of clear thought and another reason against Aiwendil sprouted up. I’m alive. Think about it, what reasons were there to kill Holby? Slim to none, if you ask me. She didn’t sound too seer-like, and she didn’t make any strong accusations against other villagers. I have….if the wolves had killed me, they could have easily started a bandwagon against Aiwendil without getting their hands too dirty (after all, the one who starts a bandwagon is rarely suspected, but those who follow them are…)

My friends, I said I would not vote for my acusee just because it didn’t seem likely that I’d get him lynched just today but if you got this far into my post I ask of you…. Re-consider your stance, it’s not too late to get rid of this wolf

++Aiwendil

[Farael]

Sorry to double-post, I forgot to say

Odds are I will leave in about an hour and not come back 'till after the deadline. Good hunting!!

[The Saucepan Man]

Is it just me, or is this possibly the most talkative village in the history of Werewolf-beset villages. Even I am having a hard time keeping up!

Apologies for my absence for much of today, but legal – er – foreign dignitarial duties have kept me occupied for most of the day.

For now, two few brief observations.

On the False Seer thing, I defer to Aiwendil’s undoubted greater knowledge on probability theory. But I still think he/she should remain hidden. As others have said, a known innocent is generally more useful when the Wolf:Villager ratio is lower than it currently is.

And I am not at all convinced that all these “signs” are genuine. I trust Nilp, for now, because we have history. But it seems to be becoming yet another bandwagon (to adopt a much-used phrase) as far as I can see …

More detailed thoughts to follow, once I have had a chance to catch up.

[Garin]

Sauce: Is it just me, or is this possibly the most talkative village in the history of Werewolf-beset villages. Even I am having a hard time keeping up

I agree completely.

Back to baking.

[Anguirel]

Well...what an interesting legacy Farael has left us.

I must say that if I were the sort to be convinced, then it's quite a case. Though the obsession with Aiwendil not wanting to pick a fight with LMP doesn't seem all that plausible.

I'd had Farael down as the False Seer myself, I must admit. There's an outright denial for the wolves and villagers alike to consider. Hmmm.

I think this time, the ripples may be larger. They certainly deserve to be. That was a fine philippic.

[Aiwendil]

Farael - No, I don't take your attack personally. I am rather bewildered by it. You take much of what I say quite out of context, and you attribute opinions to me that I have not expressed. For instance, you take one of my statements out of context and thereby conclude that I want "to disregard the accusations and reasoning". When, upon reading my comment in full, you find that this is not so, you call it a "flip flop". It's not; it's a simple, coherent position: voting record = most reliable; discussion = important but less reliable. (And by the way, I was not the one to argue that "flip flops" are suspicious. I never even used that phrase until this post).

You again accuse me of "flip flopping" with regard to LMP. Again, I think I have expressed a single, coherent opinion of him - that his vote makes him look suspicious, but that Garin, Form, and possibly Tar look more suspicious to me. That's not flip-flopping; it's holding a reasoned, considered opinion (we can't all be as single-mindedly stubborn as you, I'm afraid).

Anyway, I don't want to waste a lot of time defending myself against what seem to me to be rather tenuous arguments (but then, I know I'm innocent; perhaps that's why the arguments seem so weak to me). There is only one other point I want to address with regard to my past behaviour, and that is one made by Dancing Spawn:

Well, I found the question no.2 rather odd. Of course we want to keep the Gifteds alive as long as possible, so as for their strategy: do not step forward and say: "Hey, I'm the Ranger", or "Wolves, if you want to kill the Seer, pick me." Why was it all of the sudden relevant to start talking about how the Gifted's should act? That's up to the Gifteds to decide, and that question doesn't speak for Aiwendil's favour.

I don't see why it should be taboo to talk about the Gifteds. Of course their actions are ultimately up to them to decide. And of course no one thinks they should step forward and say "I'm the Ranger" or the like.

But there are different approaches available to a Gifted. For instance - does the Seer leave hints at the risk of being discovered or keep as quiet as possible until he/she has gathered a good deal of information? Does the Ranger try to protect the Seer at all costs or to protect the person he/she deems most likely innocent? Etc. If I were Gifted (which I'm not), I certainly wouldn't mind a few helpful suggestions.

Now I'm off to review the posts a bit more, particularly to see whether Tar-Ancalime still looks as suspicious to me as she did yesterDAY.

Edit: Crossed with Ang and Garin

[Garin]

I am going to stand by my vote. I am indebted to him because he suddenly failed to list me as a suspect. Interpret this as you must.

I stand by my suspicions and shall vote now.

I must leave the Downs until the reckoning hour.

++ Boromir

[Anguirel]

So far...

Glirdan voted for Lhuna

Nilp voted for Anguirel

Lhuna voted for LMP

Celuien voted for Garin

tar-ancalime voted for Garin

Farael voted for Aiwendil

Garin voted for Boromir

Which leaves me in a spot-stick to my guns and vote Boromir, dieing in the last ditch as it were, or fluctuate and vote Lhuna as I've been considering? I too will have to depart in an hour at most...

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Yours truly

Sounds plausible, especially because I think there's something wrong with Eomer, and I'm going to go analyzing his posts when I'm done.

So...


#42 - First there's some semi-obligatory occupation talk.

His wolf catching method is: "What would a wolf do? How would a wolf post?" Fair enough, that sounds reasonable.

"I believe (and please debate this with me) that on Day One, wolves are going to be mostly timid: not too keen on offering big ideas, convoluted strategies, or hardline accusations." ~Eomer

Well, that's how he acted on Day 1. Maybe you're a wolf and you had to confess your sin?

#55 - Thinks that wolves will apologise their votes: "I expect many 'Ooh, I'm sorry for voting this way's and 'I'll vote for you but I'm really not sure's—that kind of thing from any wolf, as long as they are not bold."

Also: "I suppose that at least one and probably more are going to be extremely 'friendly', if you understand me."

All this sounds plausible. Already two posts without a word of fellow villagers... A trick how to appear useful without joining the conversations much.

#59 - Explains Glirdan, Gil and Lhuna's votes. Conclusion: "Wolvish? I cannot tell."

#72 - Now, here's something we may call an accusation.

Originally Posted by Eomer

The Mormegil's post #29 is a bit weird. Remember he had previously accused tar-ancalime, Celuien, Gil and Holbytlass (seemingly randomly). In #29 he says that they had all responded in the way he had expected them to (apart from Gil). What happened was this: Holby and Celuien laughed it off; tar-ancalime didn't even mention it; and Gil defended himself against Glirdan's vote, not mentioning Mormegil either. Mormegil then says he will continue to hold them (whoever 'they' are) in high suspicion.

No, wait, we may not: "I'm not accusing you Morm."

Also, he asks Sauce's opinion if it would be acceptable to vote for tar-ancalime. Or that's how it looks like.

"While tar's vote for me does seem slightly odd, I'm hesitating to vote for her because it will look like it's done out of spite." ~Eomer

"Saucepan Man, you have also commented on tar's vote. Do you think there could possibly be unity between tar and dancing spawn, and that they tried to insert a little bit of early animosity between them?" ~Eomer

[ You know, I had somehow missed this post... Eomer, m'dear, I've never heard that a '' would mean 'I love you', but I have to keep that in my mind. The smiley was supposed to refer to my paranoia which is now (almost) cured. As I said, I didn't see your suspicions of me earlier, and I'm sorry if you feel that I'm making this case against you just out of spite. ]

#78 - "Formendacil's vote for Boromir88—he attempts to pass the blame to Anguirel should it prove nasty for the village. Could be nothing; but isn't Formendacil usually more vocal?" ~Eomer

Why so insecure?

Votes for Lhuna because she fell into the 'friendly' category. Well, I can hardly hold that against him seeing that I voted for her, too, and that was one of the reasons why.

#166 - Says that we should look at the quieter villagers. A fine suggestion, I agree. But the way that he says it, mentioning that he's including himself to the list twice... Looks like by putting himself to the list so openly, he's looking sooo helpful and friendly - just like he said that a wolf would act.

Then he says that "Formendacil is looking very tricksy" to him at the moment. No reasons.

#171 - Well, he's not suspicious of him after all: "I picked on Formendacil in my last post, but looking back at his contribution this day he does explain his vote for Boromir very well. I am inclined to back off him for now..."

On second thought, he is: "...although I was suspicious of the whole Day One is unhelpful play he made yesterday. It all seemed like a bit of an excuse to not look at him critically."

And isn't: "Though having indeed looked at him critically, he seems to pass."

But still is: "Which, in itself, makes me suspect him."

"I guess anything can be construed as wolvish." ~Eomer

Now, that was revealing.

All in all, Eomer tries to appear helpful and friendly, but he says very little in his posts. No real suspicion in any direction that would make his hands dirty. Pretty clever. Right now Eomer's looking somewhat questionable to me. However, his point about Farael is interesting, and probably worth of taking a look at.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I might not be back later.

++LHUNARDAWEN

I gave my reasons yesterday and they remain worthy. I will show her no mercy despite her plea for friendship. My dear princess, you and I shall always be enemies within Werewolf, I fear.

[Aiwendil]

Post 22 - Tar-ancalime's infamous "moratorium on Seer talk" proposal. She says:

I'd like to propose a moratorium on Seer talk--we can't know who is true until one of them dies, and the longer we wait the more information we'll get. So let's play as though neither of them is here.

In post 35, she responds to Lhunardawen thus:

While it's always wise to suspect those who disagree with me (and it's a method I often employ, in Gaurhoth as in life), I wouldn't go that far here, Lhuna. I don't want to create any kind of cut-and-dried loyalty-oath-like environment: those are the easiest situations for wolves to wriggle out of.

YesterDAY, I said this looked like a wolf maneuvering. I still think it could be. But as I read and consider post 22 more carefully, it seems to me that it could just as easily - perhaps more easily - be nothing more than what it is at face value. That is, that Tar never intended the "moratorium" to be a platform from which to begin a wolf-hunt.

Post 44 - Agrees with SPM that too much seer talk can only help the wolves. But then says that early seer talk might be helpful later. One might call this a flip flop (eh, Farael?). But, though I think Tar does mildly contradict herself here, it doesn't seem a particularly Wolvish tactic in this case.

What worries me more is from later in this post:

Something about dancing spawn's post really rubs me the wrong way. It's so long, so intricate, and so devoid of any new information. Being as it's the first day and all, and as my vote is going to have to come in the next few hours, unless I see anything that compels me to place my vote elsewhere I'm likely to go with the dancing spider.

I can see nothing in the analysis by Dancing Spawn to which Tar was responding that suggests wolvishness. Surely we're all familiar with the "go through the villagers one by one" style of discussion - so what's so strange about it here? Tar's comment still looks to me like it could be a Wolf's attempt toget some suspicion rolling against Spawn.

In the next few posts, no one seemed particularly inclined to agree that Spawn's analysis was suspicious. And in post 50, Tar backs off:

dancing spawn, you had me at "gather my thoughts." I can certainly understand that, and while my vote today is going to be somewhat random no matter what, I would rather not cast it for you.

This is just the move I'd expect from a wolf when a subtle attempt at casting suspicion has failed.

Then we have Tar's vote for Eomer. As others have observed, this could be a random DAY 1 vote. And of course "it was a random DAY 1 vote" is the perfect cover for a wolf.

Post 124 - Tar suspects something wolvish may have been going on in the Boromir campaign. Here, I'm in complete agreement with her. Which makes me wonder a bit whether I'm being duped. But in my opinion there definitely was something strange about the Boromir campaign, so it seems perfectly innocent to comment on it.

Post 161 - Defends herself against various suspicions. Not much to go on here.

Post 172 - Agrees with Eomer that "the four most likely suspects for the day" seem to be Garin, LMP, Boromir, and she herself. She doesn't see anything particularly suspicious about LMP or Boromir; against she defends herself; she says that Garin seems to be deliberately obscuring things and then votes for him.

While I disagree about LMP not being suspicious, I do quite agree about Garin. This seems like either the well-reasonsed argument of an innocent or a wolf playing it somewhat safe.

So, where does this leave me? For what it's worth, Tar isn't looking as suspicious to me anymore. The only point that still sticks out, in my opinion, is the abortive attack on Spawn. Tar is definitely still worth keeping an eye on, but I don't think she's as likely to be a wolf as Garin or Formendacil.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Thanks for the analysis, spawn, because it makes me look pretty good!

It's true that I haven't been overly suspicious of many villagers, but I don't think I've been the least helpful person here, as has been reinforced by a couple of other villagers (whom I thank).

I raised suspicion against Farael, Farael's explicit defenders, and Mormegil before the LMP controversy (by the way, spawn, check out the differences between suspecting and accusing—it comes in useful when talking about this game).

Also, I did explain why I found Formendacil slightly tricksy yesterday (I just didn't repeat today). And I don't know what you mean by calling me 'insecure'.

Anyway, a good post nonetheless; and I certainly won't ask people to stop asking questions of me. It's about time someone queried me.

[Anguirel]

I have a feeling that was a cross post! Little did Eomer know of the gathering storm-clouds...

Well, I'm going to vote with him anyway. I fear that pursuing Boromir, like chasing some mythical stag, will only bring dissatisfaction, wistfulness and mystery if public opinion remains swayed by his sane solidity.

Flay me if you like, but as a villager my job is essentially composed of hanging. Therefore-though it feels cowardly-I'd rather vote for someone who's likely to swing. And if I'm wrong I'll jolly well take the blame...

So, Your Royal Highness, with all due respect, I hope your mystery will be solved at the end of a rope's end!

++THE PRINCESS LHUNARDAWEN

I propose that our outdated feudal monarchy be replaced by oligarchical rule by the merchant and banking elite. Viva la revoluzione!

Oh, and death to those wolf types too, if possible...

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, there has been a lot to review and I can do no better than give my thoughts on each villager as I have been reading through today’s contributions.

Farael: I am not sure what to make of his obsession with Aiwendil. I thought that his case yesterday was weak and based largely on a mischaracterization of what Aiwendil had said. But he brings up some stronger points today. Aiwendil is indeed looking “suspiciously reasonable”. Farael comes across to me as either an innocent behaving like a dog with a bone (albeit possibly a valid bone) or a Wolf who has chosen to be single-minded and thereby avoid suspicion. Difficult to tell which and, since he has only really focused on Aiwendil, there is not much else to go on.

Mormegil: Seemed unusually restrained yesterday, but has been more reassuringly vocal today (or earlier today, at least). I am wary of his vote for Gil though, as Gil was an easy target for a Wolf yesterday and an easy “mistake” to explain away today. Although it by no means sealed Gil’s fate, his was the vote that promoted Gil as a candidate for the noose. As for today, he made a very strong accusation of littlemanpoet at the outset, and then backed off quite considerably when lmp responded (#148). Was this because he saw the suspicion of lmp mounting and was concerned about being implicated in the lynching of a useful innocent? That of course depends on whether lmp is innocent, and I am most certainly not convinced that he is. Quite the contrary.

Aiwendil: I remain concerned over his involvement in the Seer talk yesterday. His other contributions, yesterday and today, had come across to me as sensible and helpful. But Farael has made some valid points about him seemingly taking few risks and keeping his options open. Still keeping a close eye on him.

Glirdan: I haven’t seen anything to alter my assessment that his first day Gil vote was an unlikely vote for a Wolf. As was his vote for Lhuna, a possible candidate for lynching today. Not much else to go on, as he only really dealt with Lhuna in his contributions today. Which might, I suppose, be regarded as suspicious in itself.

Formendacil: Well, I am prepared to buy his explanation of his vote for Boro for now. It looks to have been a sensible vote at the time he voted. Not much else to go on, really.

Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant: Still talking sense. Which still makes me wary of her.

Nilpaurion Felagund: Still innocent. Probably.

Lhunardawen: I suspected her enough to vote for her yesterday because of her vote for Glirdan, an easy target, and her reaction to his suggestion to lynch the quiet ones. She is implicated by Holby’s death. Holby suspected her, but not strongly enough to mark out a clear trail of blood from Holby’s corpse to her door. And she seems overly defensive about her time-zone malady, the problems of which I think we all know and understand by now. Her vote for lmp went along with the general feeling about him at the time, but it could be a risky vote if he is lynched and turns out innocent. Still, I already have her down for a bold Wolf if she is one. Still looking very suspicious to me.

Eomer of the Rohirrim: Not really sure what to make of Eomer. He has been present, but I don’t really get much of a sense about him from what he has said. Which, as spawn has said, might be regarded as suspicious. Not enough to draw any firm conclusions on yet, but I would prefer to see more substance from him.

Littlemanpoet: Still suspicious for his contributions to the strategy discussion yesterday (particular the Seer talk, which was bad, elempi, as it diverted us from our proper focus – finding Wolves) and for his aggressive pursuit of Boro. Has had a good rant today and comes across as overly defensive, but that’s standard practice for him. Then again, that’s the way I would expect him to behave if he is a Wolf. One thing strikes me, though. If, as you say, you are consciously trying to act slightly suspicious, why act so prickly about being suspected? Still high on my suspect list.

Kath: I don't think that we’ve heard from her today. Her vote for Gil, putting him ahead of the others on two votes, is suspicious and could have been an attempt to save a fellow Wolf (Lhuna perhaps). My initial reaction was to view her silence as suspicious but I am not so sure on second thoughts, as staying quiet in this village is akin to drawing attention to oneself.

Garin: Problem with Garin is that he always looks suspicious and always places suspicious votes. But he seems a bit “all over the place” to me today. Declaring that only a fool would vote to lynch him, yet acting suspiciously all the same. Suggesting that the False Seer should give up dreaming. Speculating that a Wolf might try to declare as the False Seer, which would surely be suicide for a Wolf. It doesn’t add up. But our baker seems to me to be an intelligent fellow so, if he is a Wolf, his mind isn’t on the job. I somehow doubt that he is, though.

Anguirel: Calm, cool and collected. Which is precisely how I would expect a Wolf to behave. My suspicions of him are growing, but it’s just a “gut feeling” at the moment, so not enough to warrant a vote. He did explain his vote for Boro well, but he has been keeping the pressure on Boro today (while not voting for him, I notice), and I am inclined to think Boro innocent.

Celuien: Her attempt to deflect morm’s random accusation yesterday still strikes me as suspicious. Looking back, I see that her involvement in the Seer talk was not as great as I had recalled. But the speculation on whether a Wolf might impersonate a Seer looks awfully like the way a Wolf might think, and not to catch a Wolf either. And totally unnecessary, as it was a hypothetical situation. Has kept active today without really saying much that is helpful. Not sure what to make of her vote for Garin, though. Could be risky, if he’s innocent (and I am inclined to think that he is). Nevertheless, she’s still looking suspicious in my eyes.

Tar-Ancalime: The fact that Holby voted for her yesterday and then died overnight still inclines me to view tar as innocent. She has explained her switch from her suspicion of dancing spawn, although the random vote still looks strange. So, not completely in the clear, but I’m viewing her as innocent for now.

Boromir88: The main thing that concerned me about Boro was his claim that he had no choice but to vote for Gil. However, I have a feeling that he was telling the truth when he said that he thought a double lynching was on the cards. Other than that, he seems to have talked good sense today. I am inclined to trust him, for now.

To summarise:

Main suspects: mormegil, Lhunardawen, littlemanpoet, Celuin.

Although, if lmp’s a Wolf, I doubt that mormegil or Lhuna are. And vice versa.

Making me nervous: Farael, Aiwendil, Anguirel

Just don’t know: Formendacil, Eomer, Kath, spawn

Probably innocent: Glirdan, Nilp, Garin, tar, Boro

And now I must cast my vote. The thing is, if lmp’s a Wolf, I will be feeling a lot more comfortable about mormegil and Lhuna, two of my other main suspects. On the other hand, if he’s innocent, then they are looking distinctly Wolfish.

So it seems to me that finding out one way or the other will be most instructive. Sorry if that sounds callous, but there you have it.

++ LITTLEMANPOET

[Anguirel]

What an extraordinary list of probable innocents you have, my Lord Kettle! I must remember to come back and investigate it if things go awry these evening. The inclusion of Nilp makes me particularly nervous. Ah well. Dionysus and Minerva call. Later, later...

[Aiwendil]

If I've not miscounted, the votes now stand thus:

Lhunardawen: 3
Anguirel: 1
Littlemanpoet: 2
Garin: 2
Aiwendil: 1
Boromir: 1

As I've said, the two I'm most wary of toDAY are Formendacil and Garin. The number of votes against Boromir yesterDAY is just too strange for it to be wholly innocent, in my opinion. I'd wager that one of the four who voted for him - Anguirel, Form, Garin, or LMP - is a Wolf.

For reasons I've discussed, I'm inclined to keep LMP around for the moment. And Anguirel's vote from yesterDAY still doesn't look as suspicious to me as the subsequent votes.

So I'm in favour of lynching Garin or Formendacil toDAY. Which means that I'll probably vote for Garin, since Form doesn't look likely to be lynched. However - I'm not voting yet just in case a few votes for Form do accumulate (I know that a few people have mentioned that he looks suspicious). If it starts to look like there's any real chance that Form will be lynched, I will have to go back and study Garin's and Form's posts more closely, to determine which of them is more likely lupine.

Just to let my fellow villagers know where I stand at this point.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

What an extraordinary list of probable innocents you have, my Lord Kettle!

Well, I have said why I am currently inclined to view them as innocent. As I said, they are to my mind probable innocents as matters stand. I am pretty sure about Nilp, though. If I am wrong, I will be paying an impromptu visit to the Phillippines with a very sharp stick ...

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Thanks for the analysis, spawn, because it makes me look pretty good!

If you're innocent: my pleasure. However, to me it makes you look 'not so good' and as a stubborn person, I might vote for you toDay.

I would have made the case meaner, but I didn't have time.

Suspect, v.t. 1. Have an impression of the existence or presence of (danger, a plot, foul play, collusion, a casual relation); half believe to be (I ~ him to be my brother, a liar, dying); be inclined to think that or that (I ~ you once thought otherwise; also paranth., as you, I ~, don't care).
2. Incline to mentally accuse of or inculpate, doubt the innocence of, distrust, (I ~ him of lying, of deep designs; a ~ed criminal, person ~ed of being one; ~ed persons; the ignorant ~ everybody).
3. Hold to be uncertain, mistrust, doubt the genuineness or truth of, (~ the authentityof the evidence). Hence ~ABLE a. (rare). [ME, f. L suspect- (foll.)]

Accuse, v.t. 1. Charge with a fault, indict, (person), whence p.p. as noun, the ~ed; blame, lay the fault on, (person or thing, as the times); ~e as offender, of offence.
2. Point to (subj. evidence etc., obj. a person). Hence ~'ER (-z-) n., ~'ingLY (-z-) adv. [ME acuse f. OF acuser f. L AC(cusare f. causa CAUSE)]


Right. I'll be back with my vote soon.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

To put it bluntly: I have suspected people, so to suspect me on the basis of not suspecting is totally contrived and false.