Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVIII: The Play’s The Thing…

[Celuien]

Hmm. Crawled all over Holby's posts and couldn't find a strong clue of who she dreamt of or anything that pointed her out as gifted. The defense of Morm seems a bit too light to indicate a dream. I guess the wolves were lucky.

Originally Posted by Ang

Finally-it seems to me that the False Seer is now no use and, mercifully, knows it. Perhaps he or she would help the village most by admitting his identity and giving us a "proven innocent", or the closest we're going to get to one, to work with?

Maybe - but villagers still have a large numeric advantage and knowing the identity of only one known innocent doesn't change the ratio much. Better, perhaps, to stay hidden until knowing a definitive innocent can make a big difference, since known innocents tend to be wolf targets by night?

Sorry for lack of insight at the moment. I only have a few minutes to post just now (sharing a phone line with several other people). Will be back later.

[The Saucepan Man]

Zounds! We have lost our Seer already. And our True Seer at that. To lose one Seer might be regarded as unfortunate, but to lose the True Seer is a bloomin' disaster.

I cannot recall anything that Holbytlass said that might have suggested that she was the Seer. Then again, I cannot recall much of what she said at all. Either Holby's vote yesterday puts tar-ancalime in a rather bad light or this is a rather clumsy attempt to frame her. My suspicions of tar yesterday notwithstanding, I am inclined to the latter view. It would take a bold Wolf indeed to kill one of the two who voted for her, especially if she did suspect Holby to be the True Seer. Perhaps she is counting on us seeing it as an attempt to frame her, but I frankly view that as unlikely. I will have to go back and look at Holby's contributions from yesterday, but my initial reaction is to agree with those who doubt that she dreamed of a Wolf.

In the meantime, as is customary, here is yesterday's voting record:

1. Glirdan for Gil-Galad (Gil-Galad-1)
2. Nilpaurion Felagund for Farael (Gil-Galad-1, Farael-1)
3. Lhunardawen for Glirdan (Gil-Galad-1, Farael-1, Glirdan-1)
4. Gil-Galad for Glirdan (Gil-Galad-1, Farael-1, Glirdan-2)
5. Tar-ancalime for Eomer of the Rohirrim (Gil-Galad-1, Farael-1, Glirdan-2, Eomer-1)
6. The Saucepan Man for Lhunardawen (Gil-Galad-1, Farael-1, Glirdan-2, Eomer-1, Lhunardawen-1)
7. Anguirel for Boromir88 (Gil-Galad-1, Farael-1, Glirdan-2, Eomer-1, Lhunardawen-1, Boromir88-1)
8. Farael for Aiwendil (Gil-Galad-1, Farael-1, Glirdan-2, Eomer-1, Lhunardawen-1, Boromir88-1, Aiwendil-1)
9. Formendacil for Boromir88 (Gil-Galad-1, Farael-1, Glirdan-2, Eomer-1, Lhunardawen-1, Boromir88-2, Aiwendil-1)
10. Mormegil for Gil-Galad (Gil-Galad-2, Farael-1, Glirdan-2, Eomer-1, Lhunardawen-1, Boromir88-2, Aiwendil-1)
11. Eomer of the Rohirrim for Lhunardawen (Gil-Galad-2, Farael-1, Glirdan-2, Eomer-1, Lhunardawen-2, Boromir88-2, Aiwendil-1)
12. Aiwendil for tar-ancalime (Gil-Galad-2, Farael-1, Glirdan-2, Eomer-1, Lhunardawen-2, Boromir88-2, Aiwendil-1, tar-ancalime-1)
13. Kath for Gil-Galad (Gil-Galad-3, Farael-1, Glirdan-2, Eomer-1, Lhunardawen-2, Boromir88-2, Aiwendil-1, tar-ancalime-1)
14. Holbytlass for tar-ancalime (Gil-Galad-3, Farael-1, Glirdan-2, Eomer-1, Lhunardawen-2, Boromir88-2, Aiwendil-1, tar-ancalime-2)
15. Celuin for Gil-Galad (Gil-Galad-4, Farael-1, Glirdan-2, Eomer-1, Lhunardawen-2, Boromir88-2, Aiwendil-1, tar-ancalime-2)
16. dancing spawn for Lhunardawen (Gil-Galad-4, Farael-1, Glirdan-2, Eomer-1, Lhunardawen-3, Boromir88-2, Aiwendil-1, tar-ancalime-2)
17. Garin for Boromir88 (Gil-Galad-4, Farael-1, Glirdan-2, Eomer-1, Lhunardawen-3, Boromir88-3, Aiwendil-1, tar-ancalime-2)
18. littlemanpoet for Boromir88 (Gil-Galad-4, Farael-1, Glirdan-2, Eomer-1, Lhunardawen-3, Boromir88-4, Aiwendil-1, tar-ancalime-2)
19. Boromir88 for Gil-Galad (Gil-Galad-5, Farael-1, Glirdan-2, Eomer-1, Lhunardawen-3, Boromir88-4, Aiwendil-1, tar-ancalime-2)

All voted (thankfully).

Some interesting ideas have been put forward today already, which I will need to consider. And I have some ideas of my own to share, based on yesterday's votes, which I will do shortly.

One thing, though. I am not convinced that the False Seer should come forward yet. Yes, it would give us a known innocent, but the False Seer can still dream and we know that their dreams are most likely to be wrong. Might that be of some use? If for example, they dream of someone and see a Wolf, the likelihood is that person is innocent. So it might be worth them staying hidden for a while yet in order to accumulate more information. It is really up to the False Seer, since they would most likely be signing their own death warrant, but we have time before the voting begins in earnest to consider it.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

So, we lost our Seer. Nasty. 'Cod rest her sole.'

Now, yesterDAY's voting was quite interesting, as I had hoped. What did I see?

1. The Boromir88 bandwaggon was constructed so hurriedly (it started two and three-quarters of an hour before the end of the DAY) and so flimsily (there was no evidence that I could see, really) that any attempts to rush it past a pregnant crab would result in serious physical injuries. Speaking of which, I would like to do some to the builders of this bandwaggon, preferrably one involving a snapped thoracic vertebra.

2. The Gil-galad bandwaggon was, well, somewhat predictable. Gil must be paying for surviving seven DAYs in the previous game. But enough of him. Glirdan's vote looks innocuous for now, Boro's vote was, well, excuseable. morm's vote, in combination with his posts, looks understandable as well. Now, what struck me were Kath's and Celu's vote. Aside from Gil being Gil (I sympathise with him, during DAY 1s, at least), there was no proper reason, really. Well, they're marked with question marks on my list, not exclamation marks--ones which marks all of those who built Boro's waggon--, so I just wanted to point it out.

3. The Lhunardawen bandwaggon was a veritable surprise for me. Although the reason looks well enough. I'd like to think (and hope) that all the builders of this bandwaggon are innocent (or this village might suddenly have a cobbler[sic]. )

4. The other votes: You know my (uninspired) reason for voting Farael. tar-ancalime's vote for Eomer also has an exclamation mark on my list. These two could possibly be wolf-on-wolf voting, although I'd say now that I'm not a Werewolf. (Thanks for the vote of confidence, Sauce. ) Farael's vote could also be wolf-on-wolf, although I don't think a Werewolf would bother making an elaborate case--and that was DAY 1, after all. Randomness rules. Farael is cleared for now.

I think the Glirdan voters are innocent--well, we now know Gil is innocent, and I would like to hope that my sister is, too. (Perhaps I should watch her while she sleeps, maybe she'll talk in her sleep and give me hints.) The tar-ancalime voters look innocent, too--we know Holby is innocent, and Aiwendil looks pretty normal, for now.

So there. I am looking closely at (in order): Littlepoet Man, Anguirel, tar-ancalime, Formendacil, and Garin.

[tar-ancalime]

Good heavens! This is a pickle.

Ordinarily I'd be closely examining the posts of those who voted for Gil-Galad, but frankly I don't see the efficacy of that approach in this case. His obvious mistake about the Cobbler made him an easy target for people who didn't know where their votes should go; Boromir clearly voted to save himself.

Which brings me to yesterday's Boromir campaign:

I don't understand this at all. One vote, two votes at random, I can understand: it was the first Day, after all, and you've got to vote for someone, and we can't all vote for Gil-Galad. But four votes for Boromir, forcing him to vote to save himself at the dire last minute? I just don't see the basis for the suspicion.

Formendacil has already explained his vote; Anguirel's I'm ready to assume was largely random and for the sake of "spread;" but I'd like to hear more from lmp and Garin about their votes. Especially Garin, in light of this:

Which, brings us to Boromir...

His frantic last minute posts and his vote brings back memories from a past life.
Does no one else find those posts distressing?

No, I don't find them distressing at all--what else could he have done in that situation?

Now, Boromir, I'm well aware that I'm coming under some scrutiny myself today, so I do apologize if anyone postulates an evil alliance between the two of us because of this post.

[The Saucepan Man]

OK, my thoughts on the voting.

First off, I too found it strange that Boromir88 accumulated so many votes. I saw nothing in him yesterday to attract particular suspicion. Elempi seemed particularly aggressive in his desire to see Boro lynched. More reason still to keep an eye on him.

But my main suspicions arise from the votes cast yesterday for Gil-Galad. I am not sure how he became such a prime suspect. His reaction vote for Glirdan worried me at first, but when I considered it further it seemed to me to be a most un-Wolfish thing to do. It was bound to draw attention, so why would a Wolf do it? And there was nothing else to go on, other than the fact that he was quiet. But that is standard behaviour for Gil.

The following voted for him (in order): Glirdan, mormegil, Kath, Celuin and Boromir88.

I am still inclined to view Glirdan's early vote for Gil as being too risky for a Wolf, given that Gil was quite likely to be in the running to be lynched (as indeed he was).

Boro's vote could go either way. I should perhaps correct a seemingly general misapprehension. Boro did not have to vote for Gil to save himself. He voted last, at a time when he and Gil were tied on four votes each. Had he voted differently, Gil would still have been lynched because there are no double lynchings and Gil received the first vote. But in those circumstances, wouldn't a Wolfish Boro simply have "throw away" his vote, especially when he claimed to have other suspects, rather than voting for Gil? On the other hand, perhaps he felt that a vote for Gil would look more innocent as he could claim that he had no choice (which is precisely what he did). So Boro's vote for Gil could go either way for me.

To my mind, the most suspicious votes for Gil are those in between. Gil was an easy target, especially as he already had one vote. Perhaps the Wolves thought they could avoid the noose if they promoted him as a candidate. Or perhaps one of them had attracted some votes and was at risk of being lynched.

Mormegil's vote put Gil equal with Glirdan and Boro on two votes each.
Kath's vote put him one ahead of Glirdan, Boro and Lhuna, on three votes.
Celuin put him two ahead of Glirdan, Boro, Lhuna and tar-ancalime, making him the clear favourite for the noose.

I suspect that there is one Wolf (although probably no more) among those three Gil voters. And there could well also be a Wolf among those who were potentially saved by those votes. I am inclined, for now, to think Glirdan and tar innocent and I am unsure about Boro. Which leaves Lhuna, my prime suspect from yesterday. But would a Wolfish Lhuna kill Holby, who cast suspicion on her yesterday? Possibly. If she is a Wolf, she was a bold one yesterday.

So, my current suspects (and in no particular order as matters stand): mormegil, Kath, Celuin, elempi and Lhuna.

I will review Holby's posts from yesterday and the contributions made already today. But it is getting late in my part of the village ( ), so I may not be back until later today (RL: tomorrow).

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by tar-ancalime

His obvious mistake about the Cobbler made him an easy target for people who didn't know where their votes should go ...

Ah yes. I had forgotten that. But that is pretty standard Gil-Galadian behaviour too.

[tar-ancalime]

from The Saucepan Man:

Boro did not have to vote for Gil to save himself. He voted last, at a time when he and Gil were tied on four votes each. Had he voted differently, Gil would still have been lynched because there are no double lynchings and Gil received the first vote.

Really? I thought if there was a tie it was the moderator's pleasure to decide which one got the noose.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by tar-ancalime

Really? I thought if there was a tie it was the moderator's pleasure to decide which one got the noose.

Looky here

Actually, I see that I had it slightly wrong. In the event of a tie, it is the first person to reach the number of votes they are tied on. But Gil reached 4 votes before Boro did, so Gil's fate was sealed by the time that Boro voted.

[tar-ancalime]

Thanks for checking on that, Saucepan Man. That's what I get for not doing my homework.

So where does that leave us? I'm still confused about the Boromir bandwagon (sounds like the tour bus for a rock band, don't you think?).

[Glirdan]

I must say that going over a few posts (quickly), a few people seemed to jump right on the "let's get rid of the quiet ones" suggestion that I came up with. I say that we look closely at them *coughLhunacough*. Me saying that was a complete ploy to bring out discussion. Not exactly what happened, but close enough.

Firstly, I must say that I'm glad to see that some people saw my vote for what it truly was: randomness. Those people know who they are.

Now, when I say Lhuna, I mean it. She really jumped at me when I suggested it. Then she goes and votes for me for coming up with that idea and my random (which I said in my vote post) vote for Gil. Talk about a quick reaction to it. Definetly at the top of my list.

Now to adress a few things:

Too arbitrary. Let's see what people say (or not). If someone acts suspicious, lynch that one instead of an arbitrarily picked quiet one. There's not guarantee that the three werewolves will follow the ol' quiet/middling/loud format anyway(Lmp)

This is completely true and with in this group of villagers, I must say that we are all too smart enough to do this, especially seeing as this is what happens in other villages. I think if the Wolves were truly smart, we wouldn't have that combination. We'd probably have all three equally loud and talkative. Which really doesn't help us to go through their posting patterns.

Awsome questions you came up with Aiwendil and I will adress them right now:

1. What is the most reliable way of spotting a wolf? Should we focus on the accusations people make, on the general tone of their posts, or on their voting records?

Voting records don't always help, but they are a very good way to go by. The accusations people make is definetly good to look at the Day after that person has been killed or lynched and proven innocent. As for the tone of the post, well, it all depends on how you yourself take the posts. Because one person could take something that was supposed to be humourous and turn into an accusation which could lead to trouble for both people.

2. What should the Gifteds' strategy be? My own feeling is that the Gifteds, and our Seers in particular, should emphatically not risk revealing themselves unless necessary. Especially at the outset, the prime goal of the Gifteds should be to survive.

I find that this question isn't as bright as the previous one simply because that's the intention of not only the Gifteds, but the Wolves as well. As for revealing themselves, I think only if the need is desperate they should reveal themselves.

The third one doesn't really apply toDay. However, I still believe that we should probably spread the votes, slightly. Keep it concentrated on those who voted for the known innocents.

While I have some sympathy for this view and will not look kindly upon those who hold back and do not contribute to our discussions, I believe that some restraint is in order here. Quietness alone doth not a Wolf make. We must look for other evidence in that which is said and, more importantly, in the way that the votes are cast.(Spm)

I do quite agree. As I said earlier, that suggestion was merely a way to start discussion and as you see, it didn't quite work out how I planned it.

I'll have more up in a bit.

[The Saucepan Man]

Some further brief thoughts before I retire.

I can see nothing in Holby's contributions to indicate that she was the Seer. So it seems most likely to me that the Wolves just got lucky, and it also seems that we are unhappily left without any clues as to the one dream that she did have.

Originally Posted by Anguirel

I fear the wolves picked up on this aside about Seers-subtle enough to escape my notice, but the wolves obviously do not have eyes and ears dulled by dealing in accounts...

With all that confounded Seer talk going on yesterday, I hardly think it likely that the Wolves would have picked up on this one comment, even if Holby did mean it as a subtle Seer hint. Which I doubt, as it just comes across to me as sensible advice.

Originally Posted by mormegil

It’s not like usual when somebody sells a weapon, they do it without naming roles. However, this seems much more like an attempt to get the Hunter to step forward and say “I’ll buy a weapon”.

While I can see merit in some of the points that you make concerning lmp, morm, I am not sure that this tells us much. It looks to me just like the sort of comment that I would expect from a silversmith, ie role play. Moreover, it would be a foolish Hunter to step up and say: "Yes, I am the Hunter. I'll have one please." And an even more foolish littlemanwolf to expect the Hunter to do so in response to his invitation.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I'm starting to think the Seer discussion was started and fanned to a wide discussion by the wolves in order to keep us distracted from our task, which was to catch wolves. Then totally make Day 1's discussion unproductive by nabbing the Seer. It may have been an attempt to get clues as to who our Seer was, and get us focused yesterday on what the seer should do instead of looking at who the wolves are.

I am inclined to agree with you there, Boro. But it seems to me that the main culprits in that regard were Aiwendil and littlemanpoet. And perhaps Celuin too, who pointedly said that she did not want to talk about the Seer, and then went on to do so at length ...

[Glirdan]

I say you ought to be lynched for that.

Princess though I am, there are certain realities in life over which I have no control, and with regards to this play or whatever we call this thing, I name a bizarre condition called timezones as my greatest bane. I've searched high and low for someone who can cure me, but to no avail. The grave effects of the condition include a disturbing degree of quietness on my part. And can you blame me, musician?(Lhuny)

Like I said, she jumped at me rather quickly. I have the same timezone illness that you have oh fair one. Now, I know I seem to be attacking you a lot, but I must ask, what made you jump at me so much??

He's most likely innocent, but what can I do? As a respected Dwarf from a village of old, Kuruharan I think his name is, aptly put it, "Day Ones "

I decree that no one suspect me for voting in such a manner, even if Glirdan is later proved to be indeed innocent. (Lhuny)

Now this makes absolutely no sense as has been said on numerous occasions. If you believe that I'm innocent, why go and vote for me and say but what can I do? Well, here's a few suggestions:

~Look carefully through ALL the posts and take what you can from them.
~Don't vote for someone, say they are probably innocent and then say "but what can I do?"

(I am being positively evil!! )

On this day when the field is open and the evidence flimsy, why target a musician, whose songs and tunes will help allay the sorrows of these times? If all the world's a stage, Glirdan's art will liven that stage. We would be fools to rid ourselves of him without a solid basis.(Ang)

Well, at least someone else likes my singing.

This is the end of my answering to things from yesterDay.

I will move on to toDay in a minute.

[Glirdan]

There's only one thing that I really have to adress toDay and it's Boro's vote. Why on earth would you vote for Gil (if you didn't suspect him [forgive me if you did for I only breifly scanned the posts]), why on Arda did you vote for him? Everyone knows fully well that if it comes down to a tie, the person to reach that number of votes first would be lynched. Your vote sealed Gil's fate. So, that brings me to this: why did you not vote for the person you suspected??

[Celuien]

Since Lhuna, along with elempi, seems to be heading up the suspect list, guess I'll take a look at them.

Lhuna:
Most of the suspicion of the Princess seems related to her attack on Glirdan for the suggestion to lynch quiet villagers. And her...ahem...haughty tone with demands not to be killed. The second part is just being in character, I think. Although, as Boro pointed out, it was strange to be so stongly against Gilrdy's plan when she was at the moment among the most vocal villagers.

Elempi:
I'm also somewhat puzzled by his strong joining in on the Boro bandwagon. Yes, Boro wasn't quite himself yesterday, but that's been changed today, as I thought it would. And as much as I hate to do it, I'm starting to find myself agreeing with SpM's assessment that he might have been trying to flush out the Seer. Although I find myself wondering if wolf-Elempi would be that obvious. I seem to recall reading a history of an extremely subtle namesake of his who did turn out to have lycanthropic tendencies. That one would have been more careful. Still, I'll eagerly await his promised answer.

And finally SpM, since you brought it up, I really didn't want to get drawn back into the Seer argument yesterday. But a question was posed about my post. If I ignored it, that would have looked suspicious, since I'm sure someone would have accused me of trying to cause confusion by leaving an ambiguous statement out for discussion (which had already started before I returned). I figured it was better to answer and clear up any questions I may have caused than to let it sit and possibly generate even more debate. Does that answer your concern about my re-entering the discussion?

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Also this is the post that he started his infamous ‘seer talk’

Just who the heck decided that seer talk was infamous, bad or wrong to do? I saw people's points about not talking about the seer too much and said so, then had second thoughts which I voiced in answering tar. Twist?!? Twist?!? What madness is this?

He quickly identifies himself with Aiwendil and seemingly agrees with him. To me it seems as though he’s pushing too hard for us to find him innocent which always sets off alarms in my mind.

I agreed with him. Don't you ever agree with anybody around here, Morm? Huh? Huh!!?? If that identifies me with him, fine I'll play your game. I'm betting Aiwendil's innocent. So sure I'll identify with him, for the most obvious reason which I won't rant about. But I'm sure that anything I say in my defense you will only see through the filter of your obviously well matured suspicions.

Is a response to a rebuttal of a retort of Anguirel. LMP comes across as being too keen to answer everything here and cover any and all tracks.

You're wasting your time with yet another "seeming"

Posts that he and SpM never seem to agree and states that he is somewhat suspicious of him but doesn’t know why. “Things sound and look the same on the surface, but there's an undercurrent that I can't quite put my finger on, and it makes me wonder if he's furry” To me it comes across as him opening the back door for an attack on SpM.

Fair enough. It felt that way to me. I have inside information that he's not guilty and that Boromir is. If you're wondering where that inside information comes from, I'll tell you: my brain .... intuitive style, know what I mean?

Out of nowhere he comes up with his suspicion of Boromir making it seem like he had this all along and yet never mentioned him previously and yet was around enough to post a rather large amount.

Maybe it seems as out of nowhere to you, but that's just because you're not sitting in my shoes. I had formulated my suspicion about Boromir before I read Anguirel's post, and was glad to see his agreement with me. Then I had to (you know, some of us do this) work. I can't do my silver smithing and be here discussing things at the same time.

Does a list of votes and gets mad at Kath and Celuien for voting for Gil 3rd and 4th. Obvioulsy he wasn’t trying to save a fellow wolf but perhaps appear as though he thought Gil to be innocent and wanted to save him. Yet he knew that Boromir would have to save himself by killing Gil.

I'm not trying to appear anything but what I am: innocent and a little bit obnoxious. Deal with it. I got mad at them because I wanted more votes against Boromir, whom I still suspect.

Note to self: Oh, but that would be too simple and straightforward and obvious, LMP, you can't possibly have meant that; why it would mean you're [heaven & mormegil forbid: innocent ]) Welllll, guessy whattee!

Speaking of the Boromir bandwagon I don’t see why it took off so quickly.

Timing, my man, strictly timing. But you won't be believing anything I say anyway, so whatever.

I didn’t find that comment really suspicious at all, probably because that is how I felt too.

I guess it takes all kinds. You look at things with your objective scientific approach, I look at things half the time objectively, half the time intuitively. We're not going to come up with the same results. Guaranteed.

Day 1 is never much fun and everything seemed to be normal. I hope to be able to look a little bit closer at Boromir today but as it stands I think that LMP is much more guilty than he is.

You crackpot.

My conclusion is that LMP is definately suspcious and most likely a wolf.

Sure I'm suspicious. I like being suspicious. As long as I don't get lynched it keeps me in the game longer. So suspect me to your heart's content. But you're wasting time if you lynch me. Trust me. Oh, yeah, that's right. You've chosen not to. Fine. Waste your vote if you like.

If he is a wolf it's not likely that Tar-A is because of their talk earlier.

Which means that she could be in my book.... obviously.

Unless there is some major change I think I will be voting for LMP. He has posted often, many with little or no content. He seems nervous,

Nervous! You bliddy idjit! I'm excited to be playing again. I like doing this. "Seems" again. Mormo, go find another pet theory, and I hope youre next one's better.

obviously he's not the seer and I don't believe that he's another gifted. I really think his behavior is indicative of a wolf.

Hah! haha! You make me laugh. Blind fool.

[Boromir88]

Now, Boromir, I'm well aware that I'm coming under some scrutiny myself today, so I do apologize if anyone postulates an evil alliance between the two of us because of this post.~tar-ancalime

Is there something you want to tell us? I mean are you trying to tell us there would be a reason why people would think I'm evil by this post of yours? Is there some dark secret you're hiding?

There's only one thing that I really have to adress toDay and it's Boro's vote. Why on earth would you vote for Gil (if you didn't suspect him [forgive me if you did for I only breifly scanned the posts]), why on Arda did you vote for him? Everyone knows fully well that if it comes down to a tie, the person to reach that number of votes first would be lynched. Your vote sealed Gil's fate. So, that brings me to this: why did you not vote for the person you suspected??~Glirdan

Honestly, and this is neglect on my part, I apparently didn't read through that post carefully (don't even have a recollection of that post until Sauce provided the link) and was unaware of the no double lynchings.

You are right though in that I didn't suspect Gil as a wolf. I had no reason to think he was a wolf, but why I voted for him was of course me thinking I was saving my life...when in actuality Gil's fate was already sealed. But the fact remained I know I'm innocent, though I didn't believe Gil-galad was a wolf, I couldn't be positive of his innocence. I felt like I was forced to vote for Gil-galad so I wouldn't be lynched a long with him, but now I know in actuality I didn't save my life.

So I withdraw these comments I make in post 104 about lmp...but I insert these new ones. Assuming lmp was informed on the no double lynchings, by tieing votes between me and Gil-galad he keeps his hands clean from lynching Gil-galad (because only a wolf-now with the absense our seer-knows who is innocent or not). Of course knowing, that Gil-galad would already be hanged, why incriminate himself by voting for him, he would keep his hands clean in the matter.

[Garin]

Tar says: Formendacil has already explained his vote; Anguirel's I'm ready to assume was largely random and for the sake of "spread;" but I'd like to hear more from lmp and Garin about their votes. Especially Garin, in light of this:

I see an alliance of wolves in the mix. Why are you so concerned about my vote for Boromir?

It was the first day, and who says I will vote the same way? Boromir is not a proven innocent... unlike Gil.
My intuition is a wolvish one (see my aforementioned past lives) and I saw plenty of it in Boromir's last minute posts. I understand he was saving his skin, but I remember a couple of times I was in the same furry position. I really felt for the guy.

I explained that I had little time to listen to our fellow villagers and quickly perused their comments. I could just as easily be questioned for getting on a Lhuna bandwagon or killing an innocent Gil. I evened things up, as I said, to examine the last minute votes and posts.

I hope to explain why I found Boro's posts suspicious, but I must go now. I have less time for village than I hoped, kill me if you must.

More later. Let me just say... Only a fool would vote to lynch me.

Let me die at the claws of wolves. I am but a simple baker and want to go out with a little drama. Baking bread all day... my forefathers all died of yeast infections. (It was a horrid demon yeast.)

[Boromir88]

lmp...well how convenient you suspect the very thing Anguirel did, but before Anguirel and now expect us to think that you "had" suspicions on me you just didn't feel like saying them until the very end of the day?

lmp, I almost want to say lynch me so people see behind your twisted words, but no that wouldn't work well. You see I think you are now caught in a trap. Since you are caught you are going to take down everyone you can with you (which apparently would be me)

I'm not trying to appear anything but what I am: innocent and a little bit obnoxious. Deal with it. I got mad at them because I wanted more votes against Boromir, whom I still suspect. e).

And yet you still refuse to give reasons.

[Aiwendil]

It occurs to me that I didn't offer an answer to my own question 1 from yesterDAY. To some degree, my questions were merely intended to spark serious conversation, but I should say a word or two about what I think the best ways to spot a wolf are. It seems to me that voting is the one place where the wolves can't hide. A wolf, it seems to me, will be willing to say anything. But what a wolf fears is the hangman's noose - whether it be 'round his/her own neck or a compatriot's. To put it another way: wolves and villagers will probably sound more or less alike, but they won't vote alike. That's why the anti-Boromir campaign looks so suspicious to me.

Having said that, it would be foolish to look at the votes and ignore the discussion. No doubt there are signs of wolvishness to be found in the discussion. But it seems to me that those signs will be harder to read there than in the voting record.

On to other things. Formendacil gives a decent account of his vote for Boromir:

My dear Aiwendil, I do not deny that the fact that Anguirel had just voted for Boromir played a part in my choice to vote for him. As a matter of fact, it played a very major role in things. It was my intention to even the number of candidates up for lynching who were tied. At that point, I believe that Gil and one other villager (not sure who) were at two votes each- but I'm not positive on that count. It was my intention, therefore, to add another candidate to the leading number of ballots, going along with the school of thought that suggests that spreading the votes around makes for better next-day analysis.

Okay, that's a fair explanation. Still, it looks just the way I'd expect a wolf's attempt to push for Boromir's death to look. It comes after suspicion and even a vote have been cast in Boromir's direction, but it doesn't come at the end, where it would perhaps appear too decisive.

So Form is still most definitely still on my suspect list. Garin's vote looks even more wolfish - which, of course, simultaneously makes him seem less and more suspicious. Garin may be a bold wolf trying to save a comrade (assuming one of the other lynch-candidates at that point was a wolf) or simply trying to force Gil's death.

The more I think about LMP, the stranger he seems. If not for his sudden attack on Boromir I would probably deem him "likely innocent". LMP - would you care to explain your strange zeal? Or should we perhaps be calling you littlewolfpoet? The other possibility that occurs to me is that LMP might be the False Seer and that perhaps he dreamed that Boromir was a wolf. Wild speculation on my part for wild behavior on LMP's.

Actually, come to think of it, I wonder whether perhaps Farael's strange attack on me may be explained that way. Farael - perhaps you are the False Seer and dreamt me a wolf? Another shot in the dark, and really not particularly relevant as I don't consider Farael a likely suspect at this point. If he's a wolf, he's quite a bold one.

Thanks to SPM for correcting a misperception that I shared - that Boromir was forced to vote for Gil. Nonetheless, unless Boromir is a wolf playing a very elaborate strategy, it seems to me that he was under the impression, at least as of yesterDAY, that he had to vote for Gil to save himself. Which more or less makes his vote look unsuspicious to me.

Now perhaps I can correct a misperception on SPM's part. He wrote:

One thing, though. I am not convinced that the False Seer should come forward yet. Yes, it would give us a known innocent, but the False Seer can still dream and we know that their dreams are most likely to be wrong. Might that be of some use? If for example, they dream of someone and see a Wolf, the likelihood is that person is innocent.

Unless I misunderstand the rules for the False Seer, this is not accurate. The False Seer's dreams are random, which means they give literally no information either way. In fact, anybody can very easily be a perfectly good False Seer on his/her own. Simply make a list of the possible roles (3 wolves, 1 ranger, 1 hunter, 1 false seer, 11 ordinary villagers), choose the target of your dream, and select one of the roles randomly. Congratulations! You've dreamt that [insert person you chose] is a [insert role you randomly picked]. So now we know that said person is probably not said role, right? Wrong. We've no more information than we started with. Namely, that information is the total number of villagers and the number in each role.

Sorry if I seem to be ranting at this point. I understand that there are all kinds of fallacies one can fall into in dealing with statistics. But the False Seer's sole usefulness at this point is that of a known innocent (and that's still assuming that the wolves are not so bold as to attempt an impersonation).

Another small bone to pick with SPM. He wrote:

I am inclined to agree with you there, Boro. But it seems to me that the main culprits in that regard were Aiwendil and littlemanpoet.

This was in regard to the DAY 1 Seer talk. I make no apologies for the role I played in it. It still seems to me that the earlier we cut out the typical froth and nonsense ("Alas that our moderator is dead! I randomly accuse X, Y, and Z") and the sooner we get to a serious discussion, the better for the village. I can't see that the Seer talk did any harm. In the event, it turned out to be wasted, but only because we were so unlucky as to have our True Seer die on the first NIGHT. If somehow that discussion helped the Wolves pick out Holbytlass as the Seer, then I'm sorry for my part in it. But I honestly don't see how the wolves could have picked her out based on what she said yesterDAY. The more I think about it, the more her death looks like a random stroke of ill fortune.

Edit: Crossed with everything after post 132. I must learn brevity.

[Garin]

Sorry for the double post, but we must also look at those who made safe votes for those not in the race to be lynched.

edit: cross-posted, it wasn't a double post.

[tar-ancalime]

From Boromir88:

Is there something you want to tell us? I mean are you trying to tell us there would be a reason why people would think I'm evil by this post of yours? Is there some dark secret you're hiding?

Nah. Take a look at this:

from Garin:

I see an alliance of wolves in the mix. Why are you so concerned about my vote for Boromir?

See what I mean?

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by SPM

First off, I too found it strange that Boromir88 accumulated so many votes. I saw nothing in him yesterday to attract particular suspicion. Elempi seemed particularly aggressive in his desire to see Boro lynched. More reason still to keep an eye on him.

You're a ninny too. You should know by now that when I make a decision, I'm decisive with it. I get aggressive. See past villages ... in which, by the way, if you care to trace behavior patterns, I was also innocent. Enough about that.

Okay, I've only read as far as the first 2 paragraphs of post # 125 (of course who's going to believe that?), so someone may have already taken care of this next step for me:

Based on yesterday's voting and discussions:

Probably innocent:
SPM
Farael
Aiwendil
Spawn
Anguirel

... these folks were helpful and insightful or, in the case of Farael, too aggressive to be construed to be a werewolf; still, that aggressiveness is a useful thing to hide behind as long as you don't get bitten by it by a Day 1 bandwagon, which she avoided.

maybe innocent:
Glirdan
Nilpy
Lhuna
Eomer
Tar

....I just don't have enough to go on to be sure about these folks. They each were the first to vote for their particular choice, which does not necessarily mean they're not werewolves, but voting for previously offered lynchees is more likely what a werewolf would do.

suspicious:
mormegil - 2nd vote for Gil-galad .... very safe; in addition, his typical pattern for Day One seemed a little more pat than usual, a little less forthright. I thought this (if you dare believe me) before his accusation against me. By the way, that very accusation doesn't necessarily make me wonder, because this is also a typical part of his pattern. However, added to the strangely more mysterious than usual nature of his Day One suspect list and follow-ups, it makes me wonder.

Formendacil - 2nd vote for Boromir .... very safe. - and his posting seemed a little odd too. How so? Well, not as thoroughgoing as I would expect of him.

Kath - 3rd vote for Gil-galad ... a safe place to put one's vote. I find no other oddities surrounding her, so she is not as suspicious to me as the first two above.

Garin - 3rd vote for Boromir ... he's new to me, so I don't really have much of a basis to say anything useful.

Celuien - 4th vote for Gil-galad .... that's it regarding her too. Another safe vote, but not as safe as the 2nd and 3rd votes.

Boromir - 5th vote for Gil-galad .... obviously to save his neck. He's not going to believe me when I say that I actually, believe it or not, didn't make the really obvious connection that he was the only one who had to vote when I tied things up. I got caught in the moment with less than a half hour ago and just plain missed it. My sorry. Quite embarrassing, especially considering that some of you seem to find me so "persuasive" or a "rival"

So that's who I'm looking at. My three main suspects are thus: Mormegil, Formendacil, & Boromir. Yikes! Now there's a strong werewolf team! Heaven (or the Valar, Valinor, and all the rest of ye merry saints and angels, or whatever mythic paraphernalia we adhere to in this village) help us!

[Garin]

Sauce said:
One thing, though. I am not convinced that the False Seer should come forward yet. Yes, it would give us a known innocent, but the False Seer can still dream and we know that their dreams are most likely to be wrong.

The False Seer experiment failed the second our dear True Seer shuffled off this mortal coil.

The False Seer is now but an innocent villager with no reason to PM the Mod Gods unless he or she likes feeling cheated.

Our Falsie should be more inclined to follow his or her intuition and logic rather than these horrid random dreams. Does Falsie want to be perpetually stuck in day ONE?

I think not.

Once a fool realizes he or she was the fool.... walk away. Sorry Mods.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Boro

Assuming lmp was informed on the no double lynchings, by tieing votes between me and Gil-galad he keeps his hands clean from lynching Gil-galad (because only a wolf-now with the absense our seer-knows who is innocent or not). Of course knowing, that Gil-galad would already be hanged, why incriminate himself by voting for him, he would keep his hands clean in the matter.

I was so informed. It didn't matter to me because I was voting for the one I thought most suspicious. Plain and simple. If I was a werewolf, I grant that I would have been that careful. Quite incrimination from that point of view. However, I voted for your lynching, Boromir, and rooted for others to do the same, because I had myself quite convinced (and still suspect you) that you are a werewolf. Of course I could be wrong! Who couldn't?

[littlemanpoet]

Post # 137 seems a little too "both sides against the middle" to me. Reminds me of a certain "Gaur-ancalime" from another village I failed to survive in a past life. Add to that the fact that he was convenient #3 voter for Boromir, and he seems more suspicous to me. Would a werewolf vote for a fellow werewolf? Yes, especially if they waited to be amongst the last to vote so that the voted for werewolf could counter the effects of the fellow werewolf's vote; risky, but not beyond the pale; especially since it tends to separate the two from each other in other villagers' minds. So I'm not done suspecting Boromir, but Garin seems even more suspicious.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

lmp...well how convenient you suspect the very thing Anguirel did, but before Anguirel and now expect us to think that you "had" suspicions on me you just didn't feel like saying them until the very end of the day?

No, silly wolf, I didn't have the opportunity to say them any sooner. Check the posting times and you'll see that my posts correspond to (#1) a nice long evening, (#2) my very brief lunch half-hour, and then (#3) late afternoon after getting back from work.

lmp, I almost want to say lynch me so people see behind your twisted words, but no that wouldn't work well. You see I think you are now caught in a trap. Since you are caught you are going to take down everyone you can with you (which apparently would be me) ....

Oh how dramatic.

And yet you still refuse to give reasons.

Okay. Here goes. In post
20, now infamous as your "as usual" post, you built a theme and variations, to a crescendo of "too usual", instilling fear. I picked up on that: "Why is Boromir trying to subtly create an additional level of fear in regard to these other people? What's his game?" And the you added "this false seer scares me" ... there's that fear again. I wondered why. Perhaps Boro is actually a little scared of this situation. But maybe he's setting something up very subtly. Hmmmm! So I concluded that you were at least as suspicious as anybody else on Day 1, and more than most. As I've said before, once I make a decision, I ride it, maybe too hard. There you have it.

[Glirdan]

Well, I must make my vote and it shall be for the one whom I've really suspected the most toDay.

++Lhunardawen

I've said my reasons earlier. Good luck everyone

[mormegil]

Sign: You by evil pinwheel


Wow LMP that was unexpected!

I was called a "crackpot", "bliddy idjit", and a "Blind fool".


Also it was implied that I do not work, however I do and actually that explains some of my different behavior that you noted I demonstrated on Day 1. I have a new job that keeps me busier than my previous one.

But I really don't know what to make of it all. I've seen you get frustrated before and rant thusly. Even though you implied that I am incredibly obtuse, dim witted and that my logic is specious, my suspicions of you are somewhat lessened, even though you find me too thick to change. Notice that I said lessened and not vanished. I still hold Tar-A in fairly high suspicion. The whole Garin chat hasn't done much to convince me of his guilt. There are many others that I would still like to hear from.

As for my vote for Gil, I don't regret it. Gil always is somewhat an unwitting cobbler so to eliminate him early is not as bad as it could be.

Oh and for the record I had forgotten the double lynch rule too. I guess I'm use to double lynching being allowed.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Garin

The False Seer experiment failed the second our dear True Seer shuffled off this mortal coil. ... The False Seer is now but an innocent villager with no reason to PM the Mod Gods unless he or she likes feeling cheated. ... Our Falsie should be more inclined to follow his or her intuition and logic rather than these horrid random dreams. Does Falsie want to be perpetually stuck in day ONE? ...
I think not. ... Once a fool realizes he or she was the fool.... walk away. Sorry Mods.

But the False Seer might get it right once or twice. Granted the rest of us can take the False Seer's info as dicey, but it's still info. So I think that False Seer ought to at least pick a name, even if it has a rather strong chance of being wrong. It might be right, just one of the times. Better than the rest of us, scrambling after votes (a reasonably strong indicator) and people reading too much into others' posts. Anyway...

Hmmmm.....Now, how would Morm and Boro construe what I just wrote as wolfish? What possible use could a dreaming false seer be to the werewolves, keeping quiet? Seems a wash to me, unless the false seer gets lucky....

[mormegil]

My opinion of the false seer is that they are fairly useless now. I don't see how their dreams can be useful. We won't know if they are right or wrong until the person is dead. It might be helpful for him/her to come forward but I think it's up to him/her to do it. Likely they will be killed that night or the next but at least it will avert the killing of our true gifteds.

[Aiwendil]

LMP wrote:

But the False Seer might get it right once or twice. Granted the rest of us can take the False Seer's info as dicey, but it's still info.

Am I inadvertantly speaking some arcane language? It's not info. It's random. Seems to me that to waste any more time discussing the False Seer and his/her "dreams" would only distract us from our more important business.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by morm

My opinion of the false seer is that they are fairly useless now. I don't see how their dreams can be useful. We won't know if they are right or wrong until the person is dead. It might be helpful for him/her to come forward but I think it's up to him/her to do it. Likely they will be killed that night or the next but at least it will avert the killing of our true gifteds.

I'm leaning toward your innocence. And I see your point.

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

Am I inadvertantly speaking some arcane language? It's not info. It's random. Seems to me that to waste any more time discussing the False Seer and his/her "dreams" would only distract us from our more important business.

Point made. Fine by me.

[Garin]

As I said earlier, "Falsie" is now an Ordo. They must think this way. Logic will serve him or her better than chasing rainbows. Littlemanpoet seems to have changed his mind on any usefulness the False Seer might serve but the fact that he still seemed open to the option of Falsie coming forth is suspicious. It would do nothing but bringing a powerless innocent forth and making him or her prime wolf bait. Plus, it would be easy for a wolf to claim themselves the False Seer because we would have nothing to prove or disprove his or her innocence or guilt.

Lay low our precious fool.

[Aiwendil]

Sign: Hoi! I wilt my pun

A few more thoughts for now - I'll be gone for a while but back a few hours before the end of the DAY.

So LMP has responded to the accusations coming his way. He sounds genuine to me. But, then, I don't doubt that he'd make a clever wolf, or that he'd be able to modulate the tone of his posts to suit his needs. And I keep coming back to what I mentioned earlier - that the one place where a wolf can't hide is in his vote - though he can, of course, try to explain it away the next DAY.

LMP claims that he suspected Boromir before Ang posted his suspicion; he then expresses exasperation when this claim is doubted. Now, LMP, it seems to me that no one is denying that you could very well have come to suspect Boromir before Ang's post. For my part, your story (i.e. simply not enough time to post earlier) is a perfectly believable one. But that doesn't mean that it's true. The fact remains that we had no evidence that you suspected Boromir until very late in the DAY. Surely you acknowledge that, from out perspective, your claim to have suspected him earlier could be a wolf's frantic attempt at backpedaling and getting out of a tight squeeze.

Having said that, I don't think I'll be voting for LMP today. My reasoning is that, so far, the only real piece of evidence I can find against him is his sudden anti-Boromir stance. Everywhere else, he has (to me at least) appeared to be a genuinely helpful innocent. If he's a wolf, he's doing a remarkable job of playing that role. As of toDAY, I think there are others suspects that it would be better to look at.

I don't quite know what to make of Tar-Ancalime. When I return, I'll probably go over her posts thus far more carefully. There was something in the way she was acting yesterDAY that seemed fairly lupine to me. I suppose it was that she looked like she was consciously maneuvering. That was enough for my vote on DAY 1, but now I feel I must go back over what she's said and see if I can make this feeling more concrete.

Which leaves Form and Garin as my top suspects for the moment, for reasons stated earlier.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by aiwendil

So Form is still most definitely still on my suspect list. Garin's vote looks even more wolfish - which, of course, simultaneously makes him seem less and more suspicious. Garin may be a bold wolf trying to save a comrade (assuming one of the other lynch-candidates at that point was a wolf) or simply trying to force Gil's death.

Fair enough... I'm not guilty, of course, but I've no problems with being on the suspicion list. As LMP said about himself, being suspicious is usually a good survival tactic, so long as it doesn't go too far. And as Morm noted in another game, I rather like living on the edge in here...

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

So that's who I'm looking at. My three main suspects are thus: Mormegil, Formendacil, & Boromir. Yikes! Now there's a strong werewolf team! Heaven (or the Valar, Valinor, and all the rest of ye merry saints and angels, or whatever mythic paraphernalia we adhere to in this village) help us!

Egads! What a nightmare! Boromir and Mormegil agree with me often enough outside this game, but with these games I find myself butting heads with them more often than not....

Originally Posted by Garin

More later. Let me just say... Only a fool would vote to lynch me.

Interesting comment here... a veiled reference to being a Gifted? A simple, Innocent, statement? Or a Werewolf's ploy? Definitely a phrase to remember...

Now, for a few comments regarding the False Seer and his/her dreams...

You do realize, of course, that even if the False Seer reveals themselves, they don't necessarily have to tell us the truth regarding who they dreamed about! If they had strong suspicions regarding who was innocent and who was guilty, all they would have to do is change the names around, and no one would be the wiser. And, if the False Seer was an insightful player, there's no reason why their guesses couldn't be even more accurate than the false answers.

That said, I agree that the only value of the False Seer is a proven innocent. However, I've never seen any indication that proven innocents are useful before Day 4 or 5- when they can become a rallying point for a shrunken village. That said, I would caution the False Seer to wait a couple days before coming forth, but if they choose to do so now, they can at least rest assured that the Ranger can protect them for a night...

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

[No anagrams there. Well, maybe there is. ]

Okay, voting time.

Of lmp . . . I remember my (and his) first game, where he was a Werewolf. He wasn't so aggressive then, I think, until the later DAYs. I don't know why I said that, but someone might find this amusing. Or helpful, though I rather doubt it.

He's very defensive, but then again, I think I'm the only one who doesn't go über-defensive when under intense suspicion.

I fear this DAY 1 would turn into a 'Lynch him!'-'No, lynch him!' between lmp and Boro that would cost us two innocents and enough confusion for the Werewolves to hide behind in. How about we back off for a while here?

tar-ancalime's 'random' vote is still troubling, although since it was DAY 1, it could have been pure randomness. She's still very much suspicious, but I will not vote for her toDAY.

Garin is Garin is Garin. Is flip-floppy and somewhat confusing. Is Garin. Again, my eyes are on him, but I will not clamour for his hanging.

Formendacil, based on the only game I've played with him, seems to imitate me ( ) on DAY 1s, being somewhat kooky and all. If he has fangs I think someone will see it later. For now, you're safe.

Now, Anguirel. He started the Boromir bandwaggon, with a reason which (to me) seems pulled out of thin air. Or paranoia. Or something. I think he just inflated the shock value of a single post that most of us have ignored. (Maybe it's our fault?) Enedwaith, since he's the one most suspicious to me it seems apt to vote for him.

++Anguirel

[Lhunardawen]

Are you all blind? Or are you simply incapable of utilizing your mental faculties? I said I am a princess. A royal invader girl. Capiche?

But although those who voted for me yesterDay deserve thirty lashes with the whip - if not more -, *sigh* I'm inclined to think they're innocent. Yes, even you, you traitor of a priest-slash-big-brother-slash-promise-breaker. After all, I was, in some way, a bit deserving of votes that Day. And while somehow I'm flattered that you think that a bold princess wolf can pull off what I did then, thanks, but no thanks. I can command a royal anyone to turn me into a wolf if I want to.

One thing I'm just wondering is this: If you thought my vote for Glirdan was a safe vote, don't you think it was an equally safe act to vote for me? A rhetorical question.

I'll be back after reading and pondering on everything that's already been said.

By the way, bravo Wolves. Luck or skill, may you have less of it from this moment on.

Poor Holbytlass! An honorable burial is due her; I shall have it arranged as soon as possible.

[Lhunardawen]

Oh, and another thing. I was talkative at that time because all you other weird people from weird time zones are silent or sleeping or whatever you were doing. And since you haven't talked much prior to my arrival, naturally I'd have more posts than you all have...until you arrive. But look now, I'm sure I'm way down the list.

Glirdan, I think your vote for me toDay is a bit justified. I think you're innocent. That, or a dumb wolf messing up with the wrong girl.

[Anguirel]

Thanks Nilp . I hope your theory gathers a little support-it will probably increase my life expectancy rather than the reverse...

As for Boromir...too many of you seem to be treating it as though Boromir was lynched and found innocent. This did not occur. He is still as suspicious as ever in my eyes.

I'm sure he'll understand. I just can't afford to ignore the blighter. Once you take your eyes off Boromir's worthy, solid posts, they won't be drawn back again by lustre of shock till it's too late. I observed that even for Day 1-and like Eomer I don't see why Day 1 shouldn't be a day for discussion like any other-his posts were unusually flimsy.

What do I mean by saying they seemed sensible, Boromir? Well, actually I said they were constructed to look sensible. They didn't draw much attention by laying out accusations and theories. They contained a large proportion of role-play, not that I'm against that. They just looked...unnoticeable and slight.

Then I said to myself "Wait, Anguirel old chap! You're just about to ignore one of the most devious players in this village! Now, for the sake of argument...what will happen if you shine a light on these posts and their failings by gunning for their author?" So I did. The unnoticeable nature of the posts had backfired. My suspicions struck a chord with many others.

I believe I saw the signs which often tell a cautious, wise wolf. And I'm not willing to back down yet.

On another note, I agree with Aiwendil that the Seer is now of no use but that he or she can "prove" his or her own innocence. However, I've been convinced that he or she should lie low longer till the village is smaller and his/her revelation can be of more use.

[Lhunardawen]

Some incredibly far-fetched theories from Day 1:

(I will laugh hard at those who take any of these TOO seriously.)

1. Anguirel-Glirdan association of some sort. Remember the former's defense of the latter after my vote for him, in which Anguirel used Glirdan's job as the musician? I don't know.

2. Farael's the Hunter. He mentioned the role as a substituent to one of his organic chemicals, and could have been a not-so-subtle Day 1 hint.

3. Suspicious:
Elempi - Talk about a spirited defense! Could be another one of your ancestors' infamous rants, but Elemdoubleyou can certainly pull of being defensive.
Anguirel - The Boromir vote could have been a result of reading too much into one post. Maybe not. Initiating the bandwagon (as it turned out later) is a bold wolf move, but hey, you can manage it. I guess.
Kath and Celuien - Those votes for Gil were TOO safe.
Garin - History would make this doubtful, but Werewolf roles don't have memories.
tar-ancalime - Flip-flops come to mind.

4. Innocents: SpM, morm, Eomer, Aiwendil, spawn, Boromir88, Glirdan, Farael.

Of course my position entitles me to a change of mind - a privilege which I might use in a little while, when I've recovered from information overload.

Oh., As a lot have said before me, the False Seer is now completely useless as a gifted. I'd advise them to stay hidden for now, though, and just speak up when they're in danger of a lynch.