Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVIII: The Play’s The Thing…

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Ah yes, I should say I deliberately picked out of the 7 (or 6 in my case ) that had already been voted for. I wouldn't have, though, if I hadn't found any of them suspicious.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Eomer

I'm not accusing you Morm; I just find the post to be rather strange and would appreciate an explanation.

It has served it's purpose and generated some conversation. And by all means feel free to accuse me.

[Garin]

True, but worst case scenario is that False Seer identifies an innocent as a wolf and the village acts on the false information. So where does that take us?

My hope is that we luck upon the false seer, but that's like saying I hope we find out who the werewolves are.

I was leaning towards Boromir but then got busy at work and cross-posted with a few votes for Boro.
I'm now leaning towards Lluna to even things out.

Even Gil, but I always want to vote for him.

Anybody have a quick tally, my internet time is limited?
be back in 15.

[Anguirel]

Gil-2
Farael-1
Glirdan-2
Eomer-1
Lhuna-2
Boromir-2
Aiwendil-1
tar-ancalime-1

I think.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

I need to go soon and I shall cast my vote in a moment. However, a few things before that.

Farael makes some good points about Aiwendil in his theory. Some good arguments have been presented against tar-ancalime, too. However, at this point neither seem very suspicious, plus it's usually a bad sign if Sauce and I agree on a theory... the suspect is bound to be innocent.

Originally Posted by Sauce #64

As far as I can see, nothing occurred between these two comments to “compel” tar to place her vote elsewhere.

Actually, tar-a said why she dropped her suspicions of me:

Originally Posted by tar-a

dancing spawn, you had me at "gather my thoughts." I can certainly understand that, and while my vote today is going to be somewhat random no matter what, I would rather not cast it for you.

Well, everyone can ponder themselves if that's a good enough reason for them, but it's a reason nonetheless.

Originally Posted by Celuien

The only caveat would be a wolf impersonating a False Seer. But that's an event that would bring one or both Seers out fairly quickly and reveal a wolf in the third candidate. That's not something I'm particularly expecting to see.

I can't believe I'm getting into this, too, but how so? The only way we can indentify a wolf if s/he's playing a Seer is if one of the Seers is already dead. Neither of the real Seers know which is the false one and therefore can't step forward and question if the wolf in a Seer's costume really is the other Seer. Hey, can the Seer choose to dream of themselves? It's probable that the false one would get some other answer as 'Seer' to his/her dream and they would know that their dreams mean nothing... Okay, that's enough. Now, the voting.

Frankly, I have no idea whom I will vote toDay. I'll go doing some rereading before I vote.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

Sorry, but this is wrong. The False Seer's dreams are random - so the False Seer's dream is no more nor less reliable than a random guess.

The False Seer's dreams are random.... so if the False Seer finds a gifted or wolf, odds are it won't be true... as I said before. If the False seer finds a wolf, there's a 97.5% chance that it's actually an innocent or gifted.... if the False Seer finds a Gifted, there's a 97.5% chance it's actually a wolf or innocent... and for the first days, that's a heck of a good chance.

[Aiwendil]

Dancing Spawn wrote:

The only way we can indentify a wolf if s/he's playing a Seer is if one of the Seers is already dead. Neither of the real Seers know which is the false one and therefore can't step forward and question if the wolf in a Seer's costume really is the other Seer.

Well, if a wolf claimed to be a Seer, then both Seers could come forward. It still could cause a good deal of confusion, though. I, for one, will be rather skeptical about anyone who claims to be a Seer.

[Kath]

With little time available to me toDay I won't have the opportunity to go through all these posts as thoroughly as I would like, and so rather than go through half and perhaps make a bad call on the basis of that I'll vote

++GIL

Because, ok, it takes a couple of Days sometimes to get into the swing of things, but not even reading the list of what roles are in is a bit off. Also, his vote, which seemed to be pure revenge for Glirdan's vote for him, which was an admittedly random vote. This is all pretty usual stuff for Gil, but perhaps we should stop letting people off for 'just being <insert name here> and get rid of them.

I apologise for the lack of involvement. I'll do better!

[Anguirel]

Originally Posted by Farael

The False Seer's dreams are random.... so if the False Seer finds a gifted or wolf, odds are it won't be true... as I said before. If the False seer finds a wolf, there's a 97.5% chance that it's actually an innocent or gifted.... if the False Seer finds a Gifted, there's a 97.5% chance it's actually a wolf or innocent... and for the first days, that's a heck of a good chance.

Never rely on good chances, m'boy. A financially unsound tactic.

[Aiwendil]

Farael: It seems to be almost a moot point, but:

If the False seer finds a wolf, there's a 97.5% chance that it's actually an innocent or gifted.... if the False Seer finds a Gifted, there's a 97.5% chance it's actually a wolf or innocent... and for the first days, that's a heck of a good chance.

Yes, but this has nothing to do with him/her being the False Seer. Anyone could accomplish just as much on his/her own by picking a person and rolling some dice to determine a random "dream".

But I'm not even sure what the point of this argument is anymore . . .

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by dancing spawn of ungoliant

I can't believe I'm getting into this, too, but how so? The only way we can indentify a wolf if s/he's playing a Seer is if one of the Seers is already dead. Neither of the real Seers know which is the false one and therefore can't step forward and question if the wolf in a Seer's costume really is the other Seer. Hey, can the Seer choose to dream of themselves? It's probable that the false one would get some other answer as 'Seer' to his/her dream and they would know that their dreams mean nothing... Okay, that's enough. Now, the voting.

Arrgh, I would have to get drawn back into this, wouldn't I?

Suppose a wolf steps forward and says, "Hey, I'm the Seer. So-and-so is a wolf. Lynch him." Village acts and finds out the statement was incorrect. Both real Seers remain hidden. Then the village thinks that they've found the false Seer. So far, we have a wolf hiding out as the false Seer. So yes, as long as ONLY the wolf has come forward, the wolf is safe. But that's a mighty risky position to be in, because sooner or later, whether by self-declaration or death, one of the actual Seers will be revealed. And then the second one definitely knows the wolf is a phony. I guess I just view Seer impersonation as a bad wolf strategy because it dooms the impersonator, even if not immediately. If I implied we would figure it out right away, I apologize. That's not what I meant.

EDIT: cross-posted with Aiwendil, Kath, Farael and Anguirel.

[Holbytlass]

No one stands out so suspicious that I'm confident in my vote but Lhuna and Tar-anca are two that got my gut tingling.
Lhuna because of the Feanor-like manner of saying "don't lynch me I'm special"-yes could be occupational banter.
Tar-anca, because even if one does not agree with the analysis, it's weird to get bent out of shape just because a person posts their thoughts.

++Tar-ancalime

[Celuien]

Just realized the deadline is drawing near. I'm going to have to vote now.

++GIL

Essentially for the same reasons as Kath gave and because I'm not finding much reason to suspect anyone else. Boromir, granted, isn't quite acting the way I would expect and that's worrying me, but I'd rather vote for Gil and be wrong than have that happen for Boro since I'm fairly certain that Boro won't continue in enigma mode. And I'd missed that quote from tar-a that spawn pointed out just now, so my main point of suspicion against her is now gone.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Celuien

Arrgh, I would have to get drawn back into this, wouldn't I?

Sorry.

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

Well, if a wolf claimed to be a Seer, then both Seers could come forward. It still could cause a good deal of confusion, though. I, for one, will be rather skeptical about anyone who claims to be a Seer.

But the Seers don't know that it's not one of the actual Seers who's revealing him/herself but a wolf unless the real Seer has dreamed of the false one and knows who s/he is. Then there's what Celuien said, but I don't think that there's anything we can do about it, so let's use our energy for catching the wolves.

Quite a few votes were cast while I wrote my last post. If Anguirel's list is correct, we already have eight lynching candidates:

Gil
Farael (Who voted for him? I can't see the vote, but maybe I'm not looking carefully enough)
Glirdan
Eomer
Lhuna
Boromir
Aiwendil
tar-ancalime

There's no point to add another person on the list, I think.

Oh, well,

++Lhunardawen

for the reasons that other people have already stated & also my post #57.

[Garin]

Starts to type + + G-I......
Then B-O-R-

Taps fingers. L-H....

++Boromir.

I guess I'm going with my first instinct.

[Boromir88]

It's funny how a man who has a life and job outside Werewolf and can't always be fulltime committment to check up every hour is the one that's get's everyone's accusations. Sorry if I'm not vocal enough, but that's due to time constraints as I do have other work that must get done. But now I am back and I fully plan to go through everything and give my input if it serves anyone well.

I thought the concensus was it's not how many posts but what's in the posts? From what I've read it seems like the main gripe on me is that I haven't posted a lot, but you all think what I've said is sensible...funny than how I am guilty. Oh well, prepare to hear a bunch more from me now.

[Anguirel]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

From what I've read it seems like the main gripe on me is that I haven't posted a lot, but you all think what I've said is sensible...

No, our main gripe is that what you've said looks constructed to appear sensible, but isn't particularly...compared to your usual form anyway.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

And Boromir88, above all. For all Aiwendil's assertion that he looks like one of the helpful ones, he hasn't really said all that much, except the infamous "Seems to be business as usual" post. .... Yes, I think Boromir88 is my likely target, unless the need of the moment changes.

Up to post # 63 so far....

I'm glad to see this growing suspicion. Boromir's attempt to instill fear in the same quoted post got my notice, as it did SPM's (I believe).

That's all for now.

[littlemanpoet]

Okay, here's a reconstruction of the voting so far, hope it's soon enough:

1. Glirdan -> Gil-Galad (1)
2. Nilp -> Farael (1)
3. Lhuna -> Glirdan (1)
4. Gil-Galad -> Glirdan (1)
5. Tar Ancalime -> Eomer (1)
6. SPM -> Lhuna (1)
7. Anguirel -> Boromir (1) (glad to see it by the way)
8. Farael -> Aiwendil (1)
9. Formendacil -> Boromir (2) (right on!)
10. Mormegil -> Gil-Galad (2)
11. Eomer -> Lhuna (2)
12. Aiwendil -> Tar (1)
13. Kath -> Gil-Galad (3) (grrrr!)
14. Holbytlass -> Tar (2)
15. Celuien -> Gil-Galad (4) (double grr!)
16. Spawn -> Lhuna (3)
17. Garin -> Boromir (3) (good!)

and now for my addition:

++ Boromir88

Simply most suspicious.

[Boromir88]

To clear up my "usual...too usual" post, I was remarking that everything has gone
(at that point) as I expected it to go. I expected Sauce to be one of the more vocal ones and he is. I expected Mormegil to post random accusasion and he did. Glirdan usually is one of the first ones to vote and he was...etc. It's like that "quiet...too quiet" everything's going as I expected, but kind of unnerving that everything well...is usual.

So, as far as thoughts on people. I doubt Anguirel is a wolf, he first brought up suspicion on me, and he's stuck too it. A wolf I doubt would be so daring on day 1, to bring up suspicion. No wolves are usually the bandwagoners, they tag along to other people's suspicions. Because it's hard to distinguish a bandwagoning wolf from a lost/following innocent. So, Anguirel is simply a misguided innocent right now (at least in my thinking).

I'm mostly worried about Garin who has jumped around. He tags along to Anguirel and suspects me. I first said Lhuna WASN'T acting usual, she seemed more chirpy, SPM (and I believe Eomer) went further to explain and voted for her. Garin remarked that he was now leaning more towards Lhuna then myself, then he suddenly switches back to me. It just seems like Garin is playing a handy job of either being a bandwagoning wolf or a lost innocent.

Aiwendil also puzzles me as he first defends me and includes me with Sauce and lmp then he jumps onto Anguirel and says Anguirel is right.

Formendacil pops in and gives no explanation for his vote for me. But, I don't know his post seems to be that he's more lost right now.

So from what I've looked at Aiwendil or Garin seem to be my likely votees for today. Unless something changes here.

[Boromir88]

Now lmp immediately falls under my suspicion as he for some reason votes for me. If I am lynched today I would seriously look at lmp and find out which of the other people with 3 votes he has tried to save.

Now my vote changed I don't want to vote for Gil-galad but I must save my own life. I never wanted to vote for Gil, but my innocence is insured in myself and Gil I can't be sure. I seriously doubt Gil is a wolf but I'm forced to make that decision because I think we have a wolf in a pack that has voted for me.

++Gil-galad

[Aiwendil]

Boromir88 wrote:

Aiwendil also puzzles me as he first defends me and includes me with Sauce and lmp then he jumps onto Anguirel and says Anguirel is right.

To clarify: I had said that you and SPM seemed to me to be helpful. Then Anguirel's post got me thinking, I looked back, and found that you were perhaps not quite as helpful as I'd remembered. So I nudged you, shall we say, from my "helpful; maybe innocent" category to my "simply don't know" category. I find the number of votes against you strange, as there are certainly some more suspicious characters around (like Tar). I think we may want to think carefully tomorrow about those who have voted for Boromir.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Now lmp immediately falls under my suspicion as he for some reason votes for me. If I am lynched today I would seriously look at lmp and find out which of the other people with 3 votes he has tried to save.

I don't blame you .... if you're innocent ... which if you are, I hope you survive in spite of my vote, since I enjoy discussions with you involved (aka werewolf gaming). And I'm well aware of the dire circumstances my vote puts me in, so late and so seemingly deciding. Conclude what you will - that's your job.

[Boromir88]

And I'm well aware of the dire circumstances my vote puts me in, so late and so seemingly deciding. Conclude what you will - that's your job.

But your vote isn't as risky as it seems Mr. silversmith.

You only tied voting between myself and Gil-galad. But you knew one thing, you knew I was now around to cast my vote. With only you and myself left to vote you tie things up forcing me to vote for someone I didn't want to to save my own skin and now put me in a bad spot because I did so. So honestly mr. lmp don't build yourself up to sticking your neck out and making a "risky" vote. Because the way I see it, it aint that risky, you have actually now put me in a bad spot because I had to vote for Gil-galad to save myself. Which I'm sure (unless by some miracle Gil is a wolf) I will be in the same water tomorrow, even worse.

[Shelob]

Glirdan: Gil-Galad’s a wolf, “enthusiast” clearly means we need to lynch him.
Gil-Galad: Really?
Mormegil: Can we think otherwise?
Saucepan Man: Maybe he’s just being Gil?
Kath: Why should that be an excuse?
Tar-Ancalime: And what about this False Seer?
Boromir88: That’s a non sequitur if I ever heard one, enough questions. Gil got the majority of the vote so we have to lynch him.
Gil: You had it in for me didn’t you? Right from the beginning.

(The villagers have now all gathered around Gil-Galad, they begin to shuffle him towards the edge of the square where they’ve erected a makeshift gallows.)

Gil: Who am I that so much should converge on my little death?
Celuien: You’re a wolf that’s who…probably…maybe…we think…ribbit…

(They’ve now got Gil on the gallows with the noose around his neck. The crowd is gathered around so close that it’s hard for anyone not right up front to see exactly what’s going on)

Gil: There must have been a moment, at the beginning, where you could have…
Littlemanpoet: But we missed it. (holding one of his silver daggers ready, just in case) So if you don’t mind…

(The lever is pulled, Gil drops and is killed rather quickly when his neck breaks. He dies cleanly without any signs of Lycanthropy, no sudden growth of hair or fangs.)

Lhunardawen: Well.
Anguirel: We’ll know better next time.

(Sorrowed, the villagers drift away towards their houses. The square begins to grow dark with shadow, Glirdan’s lamenting song can be heard softly for awhile, before that too fades away.)

-----
Living:
Saucepan Man
Farael
Mormegil
Aiwendil
Glirdan
Formendacil
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant
Nilpaurion Felagund
Lhunardawen
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Littlemanpoet
Kath
Garin
Holbytlass
Anguirel
Celuien
Tar-Ancalime
Boromir88

Dead:
Shelob--killed by wolves on NIGHT 1
Abercrombie--killed while Yeti-Spotting on NIGHT 1
Gil-Galad--Lynched at the close of DAY 1

DAY 1 has ended, NIGHT 2 has begun. Please refrain from posting. Usual Night PMs requested and expected. Thank you.

[Shelob]

(Early morning, shortly after the sun has risen. The moon has not yet set and can been seen just above the ridge of the Western mountains. The village square is as empty as it was left the evening before.)

Voice from the well: Sooth…sooth… (fading) sooth…

(Enter SPM, FARAEL, MORM, AIWENDIL, GLIRDAN, FORM, DANCING SPAWN, NILP, LHUNA, EOMER, LMP, KATH, GARIN, ANGUIREL, CELUIEN, TAR-ANCALIME, BOROMIR88, from various points within the town.)

Formedacil: Look at the moon, how strange the moon seems. She is like a little princess who wears a yellow veil, and has little white doves for feet.
Lhunardawen: Why thank you, though I wouldn’t say the moon is quite as pretty as I am.
Form: Huh? What was that?
Mormegil: (exasperated) Knights.
Voice from the well: (very faint) Sooth…
Farael: Does anyone else hear that?
Celuien: Ribbit.
Kath: That?
Farael: No, not Celuien.
Anguirel: You mean the person saying “sooth”?
Dancing Spawn: Now that you mention it I think I did hear someone saying “sooth”. It sounded rather like it was coming from the well.

(The villagers proceed to go crowd around and look down the well)

Tar-Ancalime: Can anyone see anything?
Eomer of the Rohirrim: I can see the back of your head. Maybe if we stopped crowding and got some light we could see what was down there.

(They do so.)

Glirdan: It’s Holbytlass!
Boromir88: Holby! Holby! Are you alright? Quick somebody get rope and see if we can get her out of there.

(NILP runs to get from rope from where he fixes fishing nets. The Villagers manage to pull up the now fully dead HOLBYTLASS)

Nilp: We’re too late, she’s dead.
Aiwendil: But she was just alive, we heard her saying “sooth”.
Saucepan Man: I wonder why she was saying sooth anyway, you’d think you’d be calling out for help if you were trapped in a well.
Glirdan: Her eyes! Look at them!

(The villagers take a moment to look closer, Holby’s eyes have been pulled from their sockets. The eyes themselves are probably still down in the well, but the wolves had kindly left two notes stuffed in the sockets to make up for the absence of the eyes.)

Littleman Poet: (taking the note from Holby’s left socket and reading it) “Lest she see more, prevent it”
Garin: (taking the other note and reading it) “Out, Vile Jelly!”
Lhuna: She was our seer wasn’t she, the werewolves killed our Seer…

(Some villagers nod in agreement, all are stunned by this turn of events. The moon dips behind the mountains as the villagers begin their DAY)

-----
Living:
Saucepan Man
Farael
Mormegil
Aiwendil
Glirdan
Formendacil
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant
Nilpaurion Felagund
Lhunardawen
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Littlemanpoet
Kath
Garin
Anguirel
Celuien
Tar-Ancalime
Boromir88

Dead:
Shelob (Mod)--Killed by wolves on NIGHT 1
Abercrombie (Mod)--Killed while Yeti-Spotting on NIGHT 1
Gil-Galad (Ordinary)--Lynched at the close of DAY 1
Holbytlass (True Seer)—Gloucester-ized and welled on NIGHT 2

DAY 2 has now begun, you people know what to do.

[Anguirel]

Well...on the credit side the False Seer is the least of our worries now...

On the debit side our only reliable source of information has been silenced when she scarcely had time to begin her research.

Holbytlass suspected Lhuna and tar-ancalime, but said she was "confident" in neither. I doubt she dreamt of a wolf.

Could she have implied during her hypothetical rambling that mormegil was innocent? Possibly, and he's a typical first dream, but the evidence seems frightfully thin.

I fear the wolves picked up on this aside about Seers-subtle enough to escape my notice, but the wolves obviously do not have eyes and ears dulled by dealing in accounts...

Originally Posted by Holbytlass

If it's likely a seer is going to be lynched try to come and post a clear list of whom you've dreamt of.

Finally-it seems to me that the False Seer is now no use and, mercifully, knows it. Perhaps he or she would help the village most by admitting his identity and giving us a "proven innocent", or the closest we're going to get to one, to work with?

Day 1 left us a wealth of clues and information. We must exploit it fully today, and avenge our Seer's loss.

[Celuien]

Ouch. Holby the Seer? This is a blow. I certainly never suspected she was gifted after yesterday.

I'm inclined to think this was an unlucky stroke of luck working against us, but I'll go back over yesterDAY's posts to see if she did drop any hints that might have been picked up by the evil forces lurking among us.

[mormegil]

I tend to agree with Anguirel on this. I don't believe Holby dreamt of Tar-A but I still find her suspicious. However I've been thinking things over and I really suspect LMP currently. I prepared a long post regarding him which I will post shortly after some formatting and additional explination.

[mormegil]

Post 2

His comment here could be construed as an attempt to have the hunter show him/herself prematurely.

Now: I've made knives of it, a pretty little collection. Each of ye should purchase a nice silvery knife from me so as to make sure that who ever is our hunter winds up with a silvery knife. And if every last one of us has one, maybe one as is a werewolf will have bad luck and sit no its own silver knife and thereby do itself in.

It’s not like usual when somebody sells a weapon, they do it without naming roles. However, this seems much more like an attempt to get the Hunter to step forward and say “I’ll buy a weapon”. For the wolves it’s to their advantage to kill the Hunter as quickly as they can. That way he/she is less a liability to them than at a latter stage of the game.

Also this is the post that he started his infamous ‘seer talk’

Post 16 and 17

Quick post with no real content


Post 18

He quickly identifies himself with Aiwendil and seemingly agrees with him. To me it seems as though he’s pushing too hard for us to find him innocent which always sets off alarms in my mind.

Post 19

Agrees with SpM


Post 24

Originally Posted by LMP

I agree. I was more or less trying to say this. Thanks for saying it better.

Originally Posted by LMP

The only problem with this is that seer talk is one more piece of the village talk by which we may be able to snare a werewolf by means of his/her words. So although I sympathize with your desire for clarity, too much of that kind of clarity at this early stage might help the werewolves (to hide out in the open) more than the innocents.

It seems that he twist Tar-ancalime’s words here doesn’t it? Basically I understood Tar to be saying that the seer should really be quiet and not leave any major clues. Then LMP comes in nobly and brave to say that she is requesting too much clarity from the seers and that this type can only serve the wolves. I find this entire post to be a bit odd.


Post 53

Is a response to a rebuttal of a retort of Anguirel. LMP comes across as being too keen to answer everything here and cover any and all tracks.


Post 54

Posts that he and SpM never seem to agree and states that he is somewhat suspicious of him but doesn’t know why. “Things sound and look the same on the surface, but there's an undercurrent that I can't quite put my finger on, and it makes me wonder if he's furry” To me it comes across as him opening the back door for an attack on SpM.


Post 98

Out of nowhere he comes up with his suspicion of Boromir making it seem like he had this all along and yet never mentioned him previously and yet was around enough to post a rather large amount.


Post 99

Does a list of votes and gets mad at Kath and Celuien for voting for Gil 3rd and 4th. Obvioulsy he wasn’t trying to save a fellow wolf but perhaps appear as though he thought Gil to be innocent and wanted to save him. Yet he knew that Boromir would have to save himself by killing Gil.

Speaking of the Boromir bandwagon I don’t see why it took off so quickly. I didn’t find that comment really suspicious at all, probably because that is how I felt too. Day 1 is never much fun and everything seemed to be normal. I hope to be able to look a little bit closer at Boromir today but as it stands I think that LMP is much more guilty than he is.

My conclusion is that LMP is definately suspcious and most likely a wolf. If he is a wolf it's not likely that Tar-A is because of their talk earlier. Unless there is some major change I think I will be voting for LMP. He has posted often, many with little or no content. He seems nervous, obviously he's not the seer and I don't believe that he's another gifted. I really think his behavior is indicative of a wolf.

[Glirdan]

Oh my!! The True Seer is gone already. Well, on the plus side, the False Seer has just been shut down because now he/she knows it. This is not good.

I wish I could do more to help the village, but sadly, I have been called away from town once again (see original thread for reasons [I'll have a more in depth thing about that up soon]) and may not be able to participate as much as I would like.

As for Gil's death, my part in it was complete randomness. I hope that you do not hold that against me.

[Aiwendil]

Gramercy! We've lost the Seer already!?

Well, we're dealing either with a pack of brilliantly perceptive wolves or a pack of bloody lucky ones. I must say I neither expected poor Holbytlass to be lynched nor had any idea she might be the Seer.

This makes much of the Day 1 discussion (centering around the roles of the two Seers) seem completely wasted. And up to a few minutes ago I thought it had been unusually productive.

Well, we must move on. Anguirel is right, meseems, that the False Seer is now completely useless and should probably come forward.

The Day 1 voting record needs to be looked at carefully. There are some things about it that bother me. First of all, there's the fact that Gil-Galad was lynched. I can, to an extent, understand why somebody might vote for him; but I think there were others who looked far more suspicious.

Of more concern to me, though, are the votes against Boromir. I'm afraid I don't understand the basis for the suspicion of him at all. I agree with what Anguirel said yesterday about his posts seeming more helpful than they actually were. But to me, that seems to be a far cry from substantial evidence. I don't consider Ang's vote particularly suspicious, since (it being Day 1) there was little to go on, and we were endeavouring the spread the votes around. But I'm worried by the way Formendacil, Garin, and LMP seem to have latched on to that and made a nearly succesful effort to get Boromir lynched. In the event, they failed - but they did force Boromir to vote for Gil, thereby ensuring Gil's death.

I said yesterday that LMP struck me as the most genuinely helpful villager. When I look back at his posts, they still look that way to me. But I have a hard time reconciling that with his vote for Boromir, and his apparent sudden, fervent conviction that Boromir should be lynched. Still, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, on the basis of his general helpfulness yesterDAY.

That leaves me with Formendacil and Garin; both look fairly suspicious to me right now. Perhaps they'd care to explain their votes?

The other person I'll be watching carefully today is Tar-Ancalime. YesterDAY, she was my top suspect. While I admit that the DAY 1 evidence was slim, I still can't help but feel that she has been "testing" various approaches (moratorium on Seer talk, suspicion of Spawn) and then very quickly backing off when they come under fire. Her vote for Eomer looks like a typical, random DAY 1 vote - but it also looks like a fairly safe vote for a Wolf.

YesterDAY, I also suspected Glirdan, largely because he looked like a Wolf playing a fairly safe game. While I have no reason to change that opinion, and therefore I still consider him a possible suspect, the other people I have mentioned now look more Wolvish to me, overall.

So the people I intend to look at especially closely toDAY are Form, Garin, and Tar.

Edit: Crossed with Mormegil and Glirdan.

[Boromir88]

Holbytlass suspected Lhuna and tar-ancalime, but said she was "confident" in neither. I doubt she dreamt of a wolf.~Anguirel

I doubt she did too. It may be a set up by the wolves. Tar-Ancalime and Lhuna were both some of the main suspects yesterday, perhaps the wolves are trying to set those to up?

I will tell you all one of the important things to get out of Day 1 (directing this towards Formendacil!) is we get to see how people will act. Wolves have to constantly avoid suspicion, they have to keep our "eyes" off them, and the noose away. In order to do that for a long duration of time wolves have to flip-flop, they have to disguise themselves into what the public is saying/doing. In order to avoid suspicion then they must change and flip-flop. So, the importance of Day 1 is to see how people act at the start and how they act for the rest of the game.

Wolves like to blend in with the crowd because as long as there are several people who vote for the same person, or have the same feelings as the rest they have a better chance of surviving, because there's more people grouped together.

So here's my thoughts on all my fellow villagers...

Saucepan: has been helpful and informative. Sharing his thoughts and information, no reason to suspect him yet. But I usually really don't start thinking Sauce suspicious until Day 3 or 4.

Farael and Aiwendil I'm putting them together for seemingly yesterday they exchanged fisty-cuffs. To me it seems like they are either both innocent (which I think as of right now) or they set up these accusations as a wolvish ploy. So to me they are either both innocent, or both guilty.

mormegil: seems pretty innocent. I'll wait for him to conjure up a rediculous plan before I tell him how wrong it is and start suspecting him for getting us distracted with such ludicrous ideas.

Glirdan: honestly I don't have much to go on with Glirdan right now. Two posts so far. His vote doesn't make him look wolfish, but I want to hear more from Glirdan. It's early but seems to me rather hypocritical...let's lynch the quiet ones...yet Glirdan's been quiet (:which I understand he has a reason for, which is why I will wait: )

Dancing: One of the more helpful one's yesterday. Providing a good summary and including some good opinions. Maybe one of the best posts from yesterday. I always get the thought that one of these "helpful ones" is really a sharp-toothed wolf leading us astray. But so far I will say Spawn is not a wolf.

Nilpaurion: Another one I need more from to make a clear judgement. One soul post, nilp, come on we can't pick up after you.

Lhuna: She's one of my most suspicious looking ones as I remarked yesterday. Perhaps Holby's death was a set up, perhaps not. No matter what the case, she still remains near the top of my list.

Eomer: Seems mostly the same as Sauce, which goes further to back my suspiciouns that one of the helpful ones is really a traitor wolf.

Kath: Another one I want to hear more from. I will remain undecided until I do so.

Garin: Fits perfectly the description of the flip-flopper I remarked about above. But the tough decision about this is...is Garin an innocent that bases his decision off of what we say? Or is he a bandwagoning wolf to get someone innocent lynched?

Anguirel: Based off yesterday in that he started the suspicion on me I doubt he's a wolf...or if he is he's a bold wolf for jumping right into the action and making sure he was heard. One thing I must ask him in that he didn't make sense yesterday. Anguirel, how does something look sensible if it really isn't? It's either sensible or it's not. You either think...this makes sense or it doesn't...how can someone seem to be saying something sensible?

Celuien: He opening post which contains little insight, just the "oh we are in trouble bit" turns my radar on. But not ready to hang our frog yet.

Tar-ancalime: I don't really see the main suspicion on her. The only thing I think that looks somewhat suspicious is her continuous seer talk after she proposed that we stopped talking about the seer. It seems to me that Holby's death the wolves either got lucky or they were trying to attatch more suspicion to tar-ancalime.

of course I save the best for last...lmp, for any insight on how I feel about lmp just go to yesterdays closing discussion...

so I think that's everyone which makes my suspicions:

lmp
Lhuna
Garin
Celuien

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

But I'm worried by the way Formendacil, Garin, and LMP seem to have latched on to that and made a nearly succesful effort to get Boromir lynched. In the event, they failed - but they did force Boromir to vote for Gil, thereby ensuring Gil's death.

Latched onto it?

My dear Aiwendil, I do not deny that the fact that Anguirel had just voted for Boromir played a part in my choice to vote for him. As a matter of fact, it played a very major role in things. It was my intention to even the number of candidates up for lynching who were tied. At that point, I believe that Gil and one other villager (not sure who) were at two votes each- but I'm not positive on that count. It was my intention, therefore, to add another candidate to the leading number of ballots, going along with the school of thought that suggests that spreading the votes around makes for better next-day analysis.

And yes, it was a bit of a "safe" vote in that respect- but I remind you that Day 1s are typically devoid of logical reasons for voting, and since no one in the village had made an obvious slip like saying "I am a Werewolf", if I wished to have my vote to serve a purpose it made more sense to level the voting field a little than to try and find someone suspicious.

And, for what it's worth, I did find Boromir to be slightly out of character... but that could be an absence of time as much as anything else.

Now, on the subject of the dead seer, we are really in a fix here, since the Seer would only have had one dream before her death that we can find clues to- if she even left any! From my own stint as Seer, I know it's possible that she didn't even leave any at all.

And, even if we DO find this one innocent/guilty villager, that's not a lot of help...

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

So here's my thoughts on all my fellow villagers...

I guess I'm either honoured to come in for no suspicions or insulted for not being a fellow villager... That's twice I've been left off of major lists in this game so far. Thank you Boromir, thank you Spawn. If I was a wolf trying to hide, you'd undoubtedly be my two accomplices...

Now, by and large I've got no major disputations to make about your list, Boromir, but I'd like to make a comment or two regarding:

Garin: Fits perfectly the description of the flip-flopper I remarked about above. But the tough decision about this is...is Garin an innocent that bases his decision off of what we say? Or is he a bandwagoning wolf to get someone innocent lynched?

If you ask me, Garin leans more towards your first option than your second. As noted elsewhere, I'm a player who tends to judge people by how closely they play to form, and described as such, Garin is playing perfectly to form. He is, from what I've watched, very much a flip-flopper, especially early in the game. He is also, and I crave your indulgence Garin for saying so, rather overly-eager to ingratiate himself with the village.

That said, however, I'm not willing to say that he's not a Werewolf yet, since both of the two games he's played that I was also a part of, he turned out to be a Werewolf in the end...

[Boromir88]

I realize I left out Formendacil...besides me getting a hint Form doesn't enjoy Day 1's I didn't see much else. I guess Form's vote does make sense if from what he read he determined me as the most suspicious (again Day 1's is hard to choose) lmp's vote just strikes me off because he doesn't give anything to suddenly wanting me lynched and simply is pleased to see me suspected. Again, just out of the blue.

This makes much of the Day 1 discussion (centering around the roles of the two Seers) seem completely wasted. And up to a few minutes ago I thought it had been unusually productive.

I'm starting to think the Seer discussion was started and fanned to a wide discussion by the wolves in order to keep us distracted from our task, which was to catch wolves. Then totally make Day 1's discussion unproductive by nabbing the Seer. It may have been an attempt to get clues as to who our Seer was, and get us focused yesterday on what the seer should do instead of looking at who the wolves are.

This would point towards lmp, anguirel, tar-ancalime, and I believe spawn and Celiuen (if I'm wrong with the last two correct me) who all extensively, or continued the discussion of our "seers."

[Garin]

This is a hard pill to swallow. This cannot be a coincidence, we have some cunning wolves in our midst. Either that or they are extremely lucky. Nonetheless, this was their victory and I mourn the dead seer.

Oh, Gil too...

That being said...

I had no intention of joining any bandwagon yesterday. I just couldn't get back into the village until late. We had 3 main contenders in the vote and I chose one. I didn't bury my vote early on or make a safe vote for someone who hadn't a chance of being lynched. I chose, using what meager evidence was presented, the most suspicious candidate. I didn't think Gil was a wolf, but I wanted to kill Gil because he is Gil. Not a good enough reason. The only reason I then wanted to vote for Lhuna was to even up the votes and force those telling "late wolf votes."

Which, brings us to Boromir...

His frantic last minute posts and his vote brings back memories from a past life.
Does no one else find those posts distressing?

I will attempt to address them in detail when I leave the bakery today.

[Boromir88]

my apologies for leaving you out Form, I realized it after the post of course and we now must have just been in a fury of cross-posting.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

my apologies for leaving you out Form, I realized it after the post of course and we now must have just been in a fury of cross-posting.

No offence taken. It is, more than anything else, rather amusing...

I realize I left out Formendacil...besides me getting a hint Form doesn't enjoy Day 1's I didn't see much else. I guess Form's vote does make sense if from what he read he determined me as the most suspicious (again Day 1's is hard to choose)

No, I really don't care for Day 1s... A necessary evil, of course, but not an enjoyable one. I'm not alone in this opinion either... Just ask Kuruharan how he feels about Day 1s.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by mormegil

It’s not like usual when somebody sells a weapon, they do it without naming roles. However, this seems much more like an attempt to get the Hunter to step forward and say “I’ll buy a weapon”. For the wolves it’s to their advantage to kill the Hunter as quickly as they can. That way he/she is less a liability to them than at a latter stage of the game.

You ninny. Can't you see how I made it crystal clear that EVERYBODY should buy a knife so that the Hunter could NOT be picked out? You're readin way too much into thing here, my man. I'll say it once and never again, because it's pretty useless to even bother: I'm an ordinary innocent. Waste your time suspecting me all you like, fine so be it, but it's wasting your time.

I don't have time to answer any of the rest of your trumped up charges. Back later.