Arda Cup Football 2011

[Boromir88]

Group B

Predicted Standings
1. Wilderland
2. Misty Mountains
3. Anduin
4. Esgaroth

As in Group A, this Group seems to have a pretty clear favorite winner in the Wilderland squad. They know how to score and can hurt you in a variety of ways. What works so well is the two great dragons are goal scorers. They're the targets, and it works in Sauron's scheme, because while Sauron will take a shot if the opportunity is there, he prefers to be the architect of the offense with expert passes. Khamul is a similar player, who can score, but looks to target the imposing dragons. Simply put, it's a deadly effective attack because you've got 2 primary goal scorers and 2 players who look to set them up with good chances. The defense is nothing to boast about, but it's good enough to win this group, it'll have to get better to advance further.

2nd becomes tricky to figure out again, although TTN will give a good edge to Misty Mountains who drew with Anduin and easily dispatched Esgaroth 3-0 in the friendlies. It's a new day now and I expect the tensions to boil over into a bloody bar fight, but then you're just walking into Misty Mts' specialty. They seemed to be coasting through their friendly matches and still performed well. And Caradhras was the best GK of the group. I'd say their biggest weakness is if Saruman and Durin's Bane lose their saavy. They are two big personalities, so big that if things start out rocky for them, their own egos will be Misty Mts' undoing.

The challengers then, how realistic is it that Anduin or Esgaroth make it through? Eh, nothing about their games tells me they can. So it's going to come down to either luck or one of them decides to surprise me with something I haven't seen yet. Neither Fram nor Brand can keep their goal clean (where Caradhras and Grimbeorn have done so). And in Brand's case, he was the 2nd poorest GK of the friendlies (58.1 sv%). They can both score goals, and will score goals in this group, but not enough I'm afraid. And if you look at the defenders on Anduin and Esgaroth, they pick up about as many cards as Misty Mts.

Round 1 Predictions

Esgaroth vs. Misty Mts - Just going by the 3-0 thumping Misty Mts gave them in the friendlies, Girion needs to come up with a new game plan and fast. The key is going to be who controls the mid field. Saruman has given the offensive reigns to Durin's Bane, so their offense runs through him. He's a notorious ball-hog (wait, I thought he was a ball-rog?) but the most dominating mid-fielder in this group.
Misty Mts wins 3-1

Anduin vs. Wilderland -
This will make for an interesting match, Beorn had wanted to recruit Grimbeorn to Anduin, but Grimbeorn was suaded by Sauron instead. Why? Most likely the money was better, but it might have bit to do with Grimbeorn also wanted to play GK. And will Beorn be in a frenzy as he can tend to play in? Whatever the case, Grimbeorn performed much better than Fram; 78.9 sv% to Fram's 66.7%. And even if Wilderland's defense falls asleep at times, that's always a good sign because it means Wilderland's offense is keeping possession and they're getting bored at the back.
Wilderland wins 3-1

Phantasy spin -

GK - I don't know if I'd take a GK from this group. Caradhras and Grimbeorn both stopped 15/19 which is a solid performance, but with it being their first time protecting the goal, I would still need to see more from them before choosing one. But for no star-cost they could make one of the better options.

DF - A lot of cheap defenders in this group. Stick to any of the DFs on Misty Mts or Wilderland. We've rated Wilderland's defense 9th and Misty Mts 10th. They were pretty much the same statistically, but Misty Mts' defenders draw more cards, which means negative points and a greater risk in taking them.

MF - As a 2-star player there was a bit of a risk with Durin's Bane because he can lay the occasional stinker of a game. As a 1-star he's a steal. Snatch him up for your team. And this group has several underrated MFs to be honest. Khamul and Girion both had 16 pts and Saruman 17. I don't recall Saruman performing particularly well in the tournament before, but the presense of Durin's Bane may change his fortunes. Girion and Khamul have been consistent (and again underrated) phantasy performers.

FW - Can't go wrong with any of the choices on the Wilderland, they score goals and lots of them. Earnil II and Bard have shown some quality but they averaged under 3 phantasy points per friendly, and thus probably aren't worth the risk.