T-I-G WW LXXIV: War of the Wolves - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Inziladun · 03-29-2010, 05:30 PM

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Originally Posted by Pitchwife

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Originally Posted by Inziladun

You're right, I did protect myself last Night, so I'm defenceless toNight. I think we're both equally inviting targets, so it's a crap-shoot.

Plus if the Aphid Seer has dreamed either of us, xe'll know not to touch me. Well, hope dies last.

At this point, we had both forgotten the Aphid Seer couldn't see our gifts.

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Originally Posted by Pitchwife

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Originally Posted by Inziladun

Do you really think TEW is more likely to be the Aphid? I was looking at things last Night.
Kit voted for Legate Day 2, before Nog came out with his dream, and Legate had no other votes, and wasn't much of a target for suspicion.
Day 3 she voted for Boro, first vote for him, when he also wasn't a talked about lynch candiate at the time.
What are the odds Kit just happened to nail two wolves from the same pack two Days in a row? It could be a daring bit of wolf-on-wolf that backfired on them, first through no fault of their own with Nog's dreaming Legate. That would would naturally have had the effect of decreasing suspicion against Kit.
Then on Day 3. she gave an early vote for Boro, not knowing he would get more votes. How could anyone guess who Wilwa might vote for?
Of course, there was all that talk about the Unicorn from Kit, but that could have been either something to throw us off, or an attempt to draw out the real Unicorn.

You've got a point - TEWie's somehow felt very unicornish to me until toNight, and considering the shaky reasoning I can indeed see her Legate vote as wolf-on-wolf; but after that backfired the way it did, do you think she'd have risked the same again with Boro? Hmmm... with Nog removed, and Boro being their Hunter, perhaps.
But no matter - the only one we can be pretty sure is not a Unicorn is wilwa; she's both a safe target and a precarious factor while alive.

I'd been trying to work out who the final Aphid was, TEW or Kit. That wolf-on-wolf of Kit's did throw us off for a while. It was only in comparison with TEW that she really started looking like a wolf.

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Originally Posted by Inziladun

Now for thoughts on TEW:

I've been looking back over the thread, searching for points of interest on him.
I noted that after I put up my 'suspicion' post on TEW, Legate said:

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Well. Anyway, I might led Inzil slide a bit backwards among my suspects now, but still there is something to think about...

.

That was after I had responded to something else he'd brought up about me, about why Nerwen would have been a 'logical' choice for a kill. If TEW was his packmate, it would have been quite easy and safe for him to have latched onto your criticism of me, with that plus what he already had.

Nog was an innocent, and is a very shrewd judge when it comes to wolves (obviously!). He thought TEW looked innocent.

In TEW's response to me that Day, he actually agreed with many of the points I'd made, and overall seemed rather aggrieved and dispirited. Not out of the question for wolvish behaviour, but still: he didn't go on the immediate offensive, as I would have.

The next Day, TEW came out swinging:

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I think I know who the wolves are. I'm guessing Inzy, Pitchwife, Kitanna and Boromir. Anybody want to confess? I won't have much time to read and post in the rest of toDAY, what with work and a school event coming up. Inzy, I'm not gonna be nice to you just because you've accused me. This is war! Nogrod said you seem opportunistic, and I'm inclined to agree. And the math is against you. I know its also against me, but I know who I am.

He was certainly right about three of the four he names as wolves!
It concerned me somewhat that this was such a change in tone, almost as if he'd been discussing the matter with someone. But then, maybe he'd just been thinking it over and decided to be more agressive. And he himself said he wouldn't be around most of the Day, so it would make sense he might vote early.

His next post was this:

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[Legate] was talking about Sally and me, in case you're wondering. Another thing. The fighting I mentioned was so bad Legate voted for Pitchwife. If I had to guess which one of my above wolf picks is wrong, I'd say Kitanna because Legate and Lommy were in separate packs. That's enough for the night. Bye

This feels innocentish. I see no reason he would bring up Legate in association with himself, if they were mates.

He showed up one more time, late.

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Inzy, your response to my outburst feels genuine to me. With my luck (and skill level) in playing werewolf you may very well be innocent. I think you have a good point about Kitanna and her vote for Legate. However, if I wanted to be stubborn, I could say it was a gamble to avoid suspicion in the future. But I seriously doubt that's the case. Her vote had slipped my mind. There goes my grand unified werewolf theorem. I thought Izzy was innocent because she hadn't rung any alarm bells in me, Nogrod had a feeling she was innocent, my suspicion of you, and Lommy's post. That would still be my guess. Look in my post after my vote for the Legate quotes I was referring to. I'm gonna leave now and not come back toDAY.

Backing off suspicion of me (after already giving me a vote

).

All in all, I think he really does look innocent. And if he isn't a wolf, Kit is.

What do you think?

-Inzil

Where I became convinced TEW wasn't likely to be the Aphid.

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Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Sound analysis of TEW, thanks - and my gut feeling about him from last Night agrees with it. He's also been much too extrovert, all in all, for what I'd expect from a Seerwolf.
But does it really matter which of them is which?
I've been doing simulations (with jelly bears of different colours

) until my brain smoked, but it all boils down to this: the situation being what it is, with the two Unicorns, I don't see how it's possible for either pack to win this game at this point, unless the Aphid Seer (let's just assume it's Kit) makes a suicidal mistake toNight.

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Originally Posted by Inziladun

I had a PM I was going to send you with a lot of different scenarios laid out, but I started getting confused.

Anyway, it may not be so set in stone what the Aphid will do toNight.
I remembered something from the Admin Thread:

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The Seer!wolves receive one dream every Night. If the Seer!wolf dreams of a rival wolf, they are only told that the player is a wolf, not their gift. If the Seer!wolf dreams of a gifted, they are told what the gift is.

They can't know which of us is the Were! I think that gives us a sizable advantage.

Does that alter your perceptions of our chances?

-Inzil

And the revelation of the rule we'd both forgotten, that induced us to throw caution to the wind and go after our likeliest Aphid candidate.