Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Celuien

I know that things look a might odd for me. I defended my girl on the first day and was hesitant to vote for Nogrod. With a record of defending what turned out to be two wolves, I must look like the evil wizard. I'm not. I defended Naria on the first day of this madness only because she was my daughter. Nogrod had me fooled until Roa's insight. But if someone comes out strongly saying that I am the EW, I'd suspect that person of actually being the EW trying to deflect attention onto me.

I wonder. Was there anyone else who defended them? Assuming that Naria was not a newly changed wolf (and being quiet, I'd assume she was one of the original wolves), someone who defended both over the first two days could be the EW. Only the EW knew that they were both wolves, after all. Something for me to look into.

Okay, this is the weirdest post I've seen - I don't even know where to start with it.

1) No one has really suspected Celuien yet. She's made appearances on quite a few "possible EW picks" lists, but anyone hasn't made a case against her. Why this sudden need to defend herself?

2) Over than a half of the villagers did not vote for Nogrod. Why would this look remarkably bad just for Celuien then? Because she happened to defend Naria, too? A lot of people make mistakes, but if you freak out and start explaining your actions even before anyone has suspected you, it looks weird to me.

3) So, the EW is likely to be someone who has acted like Celuien, but it's not her, and anyone who accuses her is probably the EW. Right... A bit like if I said that if anyone suspects me to be a Wolf, they must be Wolves themselves. Are you trying to scare people from analysing you by hinting that they could be the EW?

4) Celuien's theory is that someone who has defended both Nogrod and Naria could be the EW, but she's so busy with defending herself that she doesn't check if there is anyone like that than herself (except a bit later; she didn't find any). Besides, it rather contradicts with what she said the Day before yesterDay:

I wonder if the EW would risk exposure by openly defending a transformed villagers

When phantom said that it might be either way, Celuien replied:

That's true, but I think that there are less suspicion raising and simpler ways to make a good defense against wizardry. Unless the EW is a very bold, very brash sort, of course.

This post by Celuien makes me really uneasy. I'll go doing some rereading now.