What won't be in The Hobbit

[Makar]

It has been discussed here before, many times, and will be brought up again - what parts of the Hobbit will and will not make the cut? Are we assuming the Hobbit will be 3 plus hours long and that additional material - White Council, etc - will be moved over into the second film as a flashback?

Regardless, a good rule of thumb is to look at what was left out of the cartoons and the radio drama. For instance, in the case of LotR, Bombadil and the Barrow Wights did not make it into either and were subsequently cut out of Jackson's films. Jackson also borrowed the idea of a stand-in for Glorfindel from Bakshi, although the former used Arwen, the latter, Legolas. There is a gap between the Bakshi and Rankin-Bass cartoons, so one cannot say that the Paths of the Dead were left out intentionally. The Pukelmen did not make the cartoon or the radio drama and thus were not in the live action film. Scouring of the Shire was not in the cartoon or the live action, but was in the drama.

TH is a tougher pickle. It is a shorter story and therefore there would be less to cut in a three hour movie. In fact, in the BBC radio production, the plot remains greatly intact. The cartoon keeps the major events, as well. One exception is Beorn. This has been mentioned here as the most likely thing to be cut. There are two reasons 1) He has a bunch of helper animals that will seem out of place with the Jackson brand 2) He would be easy to edit out - simply have the eagles drop everyone off at the edge of Mirkwook ala Rankin-Bass and cut out the Bolg vs Beorn, inserting a Dwarf, Elf, or Man of Dale for him in the slaying of Bolg. Another character likely to go is the Master of Lake Town. Less likely to be cut, although they could do it (don't forget what happened to Imrahil) could be Dain.

Additionally, there is the question of what will talk and what won't. Here we have trolls, wargs, eagles, and spiders to consider.

Finally, one might consider the length of the opening scene, i.e., the tea party, which could surpass 30min in length.

I know, tl;dr. But what does /thee/ think?