Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Kath]

Pitch then. Going with the assumption the wolves thought he was the Seer, so I'm reading with that mindset.

Day 1

Originally Posted by Pitch

Let's see: village of 22, five of which are infectors. One out of four. Every fourth person. Starting from the top, and excluding myself, that's Lottie, Zil, Urwen (), Mac and Sally. There, case closed

Well unless Lottie is a wolf and she's been worrying about this for five Days, I think this seems an unlikely source for a Seer hint.

Got involved in the fake votes discussion and viewed Legate as the leader of it, which made him ping. Then later finds G55's interpretation of events suspicious. It looks like he hadn't dreamed of Legate or G55 at this point then as the G55 suspicion came later.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Mac, really? You find it odd how I pinned the no-vote stuff on Legate, when earlier you yourself found it just as odd how enthusiastic he was about it? Now that I find odd! *ping*

So he hadn't dreamed of Mac, either.

Makes a sort of list post about the village but seems non-committal on everyone.

Originally Posted by Pitch

I'd actually be surprised if there isn't at least one wolf among Rikae, Brinn, Kitanna and Lottie. The later on the Pitchwagon, the likelier.

G55 is all over the place, fairly confrontational, sometimes eyebrow-raising (about Urwen/Maeglin: really?). Her all-out attack on Rikae just now does sound a lot like passionate innocent though and makes me feel better about her.
Paradoxically, so does Rikae's response so far.

Well so he definitely hadn't dreamed of Rikae or Kitanna. Further suspicion of Brinn afterwards.

Votes Brinn. Thinks Eonwe and Greenie made throwaway votes.

I mean, none of his suspicions seem anything but motivated by what he's seen in the game thread. At a push, Lottie for mentioning her twice in possible wolf lists. But it's so banter driven in the first instance and reactionary to being suspected in the second that I can't really see that being the case. Also, he flip flops on her in the next two Days, so I don't think that makes sense.

Day 2
Suggests Rikae's death implicates Brinn but then says that's maybe too obvious. Doesn't look like a dream.

Questions Hui's interpretation of his words and pings Inzil.

Speaks against Hui again. Doesn't look like he's dreamed Mac here as he's still unsure about him.

Gets drawn into the Kit discussion.

Looks at Inzil after pinging him and doesn't draw much in the way of conclusions, so seems like he didn't dream him.

Looks at Greenie and seems to find her overall innocent. A Greenie-wolf could use this as cover. If Pitch was the Seer, she looks good.

Some suspicion of Legate so hadn't dreamed him.

Said he'd vote Mac or Inzil so hadn't dreamed them.

Originally Posted by Pitch

I could still vote Zil, or I could actually get behind Legate's Hui vote. A few of Hui's posts look like subtly sewing suspicion while not getting too involved in anything.

Third time he's brought up Hui. Then goes for the vote and ties Hui with Mac, making the lynch more likely to happen.

Ok, I can maybe see the wolves wondering about Pitch having dreamed of Hui here, and then going for it once there was enough support to push for the lynch.

Day 3

Originally Posted by Pitch

Right. And may I say that Eönwë voting Hui because 'with the vote count as it is it's going to have to be this way', after he'd earlier listed Hui as 'fine for now', is as good a candidate for this as any.

This is his first post, so pushing for Eonwe early on. And he sticks with this suspicion. Eon-wolf pack concerned that he got Hui the Day before and now him too, or wolves thinking even if Pitch isn't the Seer this is a big push at an innocent Eonwe.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Could well be. There were a few exchanges between Hui and Greenie where it looked like he was taking guidance from her, so them being packmates doesn't seem unplausible.

It doesn't look like he'd dreamed of Hui and Greenie as both those names came up on Day 2.

Seems to flip flop on Brinn so an unlikely dream. Still suspicious of Inzil so didn't dream him.

Originally Posted by Pitch

I find it hard to reconcile Lottie's backing off of Mac and adding a fourth wheel to the Huiwagon with wolvishness. Also, would Hui have soft-suspected two of his packmates explicitly in connection with each other? I don't think so. I'm still leaning more towards Zil.

Right, so flipflopping on Lottie suggests not a dream.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Eönwë and to a lesser degree Greenie. Not sure about the others.

Hmm, I think that makes Greenie a less likely dream. If he'd dreamed her and Eonwe and found them both wolves then that 'lesser degree' bit wouldn't be there. And obviously if he'd dreamed her innocent she wouldn't be there at all.

Ends up voting Eonwe even amidst all the sally madness.

Day 4

Originally Posted by Pitch

It really sucks to loose Legate - maybe the only player I felt I could trust (although I felt pretty good about Mac too yesterDay).

Possible dream of Legate.

Still pinging Greenie but votes Eonwe - so very consistent with this.

Day 5
Focuses in on Boro, then backs off. Unlikely dream. (With Pitch=Seer hat off, also looks like Pitch did buy the hints Boro was putting out as he does back off.)

Originally Posted by Pitch

Full disclosure: Eönwë, Shasta and Greenie hinge on each other in my mind to some degree.

But was still unsure over Greenie in that post so I still think an unlikely dream.

Pre-votes Eonwe and Inzil.

Originally Posted by Pitch

I'm not ready to vote Rune quite yet, but I could go with either of Ka or Eönwë (duly noted about Morgoth's Breath).

Originally Posted by Pitch

I don't think it's such an outlandish reaction when they vote somebody you felt very much was innocent.

I'd say he hadn't dreamed Rune as he was nearly swayed by Lommy's counter argument at one point so didn't seem to have a real definite on him.

I know I've been banging on about the wolves must be going after people they think are the Seer, but I have to admit that I'm scratching my head a bit with this one. Eonwe is the big take away from it, and it could be the wolves thinking Pitch had pegged Hui and now also Eonwe, and wanted to kill him before he could catch any more of them even if that means Eonwe goes down with him. That's quite a fatalistic attitude though.

[Kath]

As to suspicion of Rune over the Days:

Originally Posted by Eonwe

Rune Son of Bjarne - Interesting to hear him admit that he usually suspects me without much cause; that might partially explain why I usually suspect him, and this game is no different. Probably not enough to vote for him though. At least do far.

There is no further mention of Rune by Eonwe on Day 1 and he ends up voting Urwen.

Day 2
Lottie looks at people who voted for Brinn late on and considers Rune being a possible wolf who voted for a Brinn packmate.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Rune: In post #117, he's most worried about G55 for her fake vote idea then turning it back on Legate. For post #134, he says he's likely to vote Eonwe for being non-committal or Kit for her reaction to Lhuna. #221, he acknowledges there's a building case against me and then agrees with it. He states he'd prefer to vote Eonwe, but votes for me because I'm the better lynch option over G55.

Impression: I don't really agree with his reasons for suspecting Eonwe and Kit - they seem weak. As for his suspicion of me, there's nothing unusual in itself about Rune suspecting me...he always does. But the way he piggybacks on the case against me is suspicious. Plus, what happened to his concerns about G55? They seem to have disappeared unless I'm missing something.

Day 3

Originally Posted by Lottie

Rune - I get a bad feeling from him, but that could be in part because he suspects me. I don't like that he essentially tried to start up a new bandwagon in the middle of the Huinwagon taking off, but that could again be an innocent who just didn't really suspect either candidate. Definitely keeping my eye on him.

Originally Posted by Eonwe

Rune Son of Bjarne - Just a feeling at the moment; I need to reread his posts.

Originally Posted by Brinn

I find Rune's suspicions of Lottie to be flimsy partly because of his overreaction to that post and partly because in his description for her he finds her posts 50% reasonable, which is a bit noncommittal. I also see his vote as a bit of a throwaway; sure it was early enough to go any way, but at that time a Lottie lynch did not seem very likely. I am not as suspicious of Rune as I am of others, but I am wary of him.

Seems to be the same three people with suspicion of Rune. Most other people had him as an unsure or leaning innocent.

Day 4

Originally Posted by Lhuna

Rune
Last mention of Zil on Day 2, he was in his neutral zone, and his suspects were Brinn, Lottie, and Eonwe. YesterDay, he said his quick read-through had not yielded any new suspicions. Afterwards he asked to confirm if his understanding of why Zil and sally were being suspected is accurate, which Legate did. Next thing we see, he could vote for Zil as well as his three suspects without feeling too bad about it. So while his not voting for sally is consistent with his stand on her reveal, his choice of vote seems oddly out of the blue.

Originally Posted by Eonwe

I'm still suspicious of Lalaith and Rune, and I suspect that at that there is at least one Infector in that pair.

So Lhuna suddenly comes swinging for Rune, who otherwise isn't much mentioned. It would seem an odd wolf on wolf move when it was really quite out of the blue.

Day 5

Originally Posted by Eonwe

Later in the Day there's a specific discussion on the topic involving Rune - Lommy seems to think that if the Infectors thought Legate was the seer this makes Rune seem good, Brinn agrees, Lhuna disagrees, they get into a debate, and THE Ka joins on the side of Lommy. I wonder about this because I actually found myself agreeing with Lhuna while reading this, but clearly she was evil. And thinking about it some more I think I agree with Lommy. Also, since this was before the QT vote for Lhuna, there was no reason for anyone to distance themselves from her, so we have to assume the responses are genuine, or at least not tainted by the fact that Lhuna was a possible quarantine-candidate. One thing I wonder whether it would occur to an innocent to look through Legate's suspicions in such a way, but then again, I haven't played in a long while... In any case, I think the discussion there feels a little bit like there may be some re-hashing of the previous Night's discussion, so I'm a bit wary of Lommy, THE Ka, Brinn. And given that this is an indirect way of defending or not defending Rune, this could go either way for him - either he's being soft-suspected by a fellow (Lhuna) or put brought back to the table (i.e. returned to being a possible vote). Either is plausible. Addendum after reading (#1053 - whoa, over 1000 posts?!): looks like Lommy still supports this reading.

I'm a little confused on this one, because it's the first time Eonwe really gives his full explanation for suspecting Rune, and it mostly seems to be based around Lhuna, but that hadn't I don't think been the basis of the suspicion until now. Also, did Lommy support this reading? I got the opposite impression from her posts and thought she'd ended up feeling Rune was innocent. Lottie also drops suspicion of Rune and I'm sure that was in relation to Lommy too.

Originally Posted by Boro

Rune >>> Eonwe

At this point Lhuna was at 4, Eonwe 3. However, Rune and Lommy (for Lhuna) voted at the same time. So when making his vote the count was Lhuna 3/ Eonwe 2. Suspicious, looks like an attempt to save Lhuna.

Boro then brings Rune into the mix with his ... whatever he was doing.

Shasta doesn't like Rune flip flopping saying Lommy is suspicious and then saying he wouldn't vote for her.

The QT vote for Rune.

Votes:
Day 5
QT -> Rune
Kath -> Inzil
Greenie -> Inzil 2
Shasta -> THE Ka
Eönwë -> Rune 2
Boro -> Eönwë
Inzil -> Rune 3
Lommy -> Inzil 3
Lottie -> Rune 4
Brinn -> Inzil 4
Rune -> Inzil 5
Pitch -> Inzil 6
THE Ka -> Shasta

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Lottie

What I see is, Eonwe came out swinging, very like a wolf who decided not to kill him and to instead try to argue that his fake reveal was suspicious, and who was surprised to find that the village wasn't super interested in suspecting Boro when he assumed they would be.

I guess that's where we differ in opinion. I find Eonwe's reaction to doubt Boro's innocence more natural because how I initially felt too. I mean - how are the innocents supposed to know for sure that he's telling the truth? Meanwhile, I think your immediate conclusion to find Boro innocent is less genuine - of course, a wolf would know if Boro's innocent.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Lottie re: Brinn

You really have nothing to say about Eonwe beyond agreeing with Greenie and therefore lumping him and Boro together? I personally don't understand her argument that they're on the same side at all. Like, I don't understand what the argument is. What I see is, Eonwe came out swinging, very like a wolf who decided not to kill him and to instead try to argue that his fake reveal was suspicious, and who was surprised to find that the village wasn't super interested in suspecting Boro when he assumed they would be. Eonwe already tied the two of you together by trying to say that you looked innocent like Lommy - now you're saying he looks innocent like Boro? Looks a lot like two packmates to me.

I'm not sure what to make of Brinn at this stage - I'm somewhat worried about how she's floating by without committing to anything that could become controversial, and I've reached a point where I get nervous if someone agrees with me because what if they're a wolf seeking brownie points. But regardless of what Brinn is, I think the argument for Boro and Eonwe being on the same side does make sense. As in -

The wolves are bound to be pretty desperately looking for the Seer at this stage, and if half the village noticed Boro's hints, they're bound to have done. Nobody's been able to find anything that looks half that "Seerish" in Pitchwife's posts. Sure, the wolves could have guessed Boro was bluffing; but would they really be willing to take the risk and leave him alive? So far, this pack's Night kills have looked rather safe and cautious than bold. So to me, the only logical reasons for them not to kill Boro are either

1) he was far enough off in one of his "dreams" that the wolves knew he wasn't the real Seer, or
2) he's one of them.

As for the Eonwe connection - if it's option 1), this would mean either that Lommy and/or Brinn are wolves, and/or that Eonwe is innocent. More specifically, the Pitchwife kill doesn't make sense if they're going for the Seer, Eonwe is a wolf and Boro isn't; both Pitch and Boro suspected Eonwe, and I can't see how Pitch could have looked more Seer-ish to them than Boro. So I'd say if the wolves are gunning for the Seer and Boro isn't one of them, then Eonwe likely isn't, either. Make sense?

If it's option 2), meanwhile, the above would explain why he's coming out now instead of letting it play out and fake-revealing at a later point. If we believe Boro's claim, then Eonwe being a likely innocent is a fairly logical conclusion. Eonwe was under a lot of fire yesterDay and quite a bit toDay, too. Something like this could be the only thing keeping both him and Boro alive and distracting the village for the 2 (!!!) days they'd need in order to win.

(I've just had a horrible thought. What if we have a pack of Boro/Eonwe/Kath? We wouldn't know what hit us.)

All this aside, I do think it's more likely that Boro is innocent. But I also stand by my conclusion that this means Eonwe likely is, too.

[THE Ka]

Originally Posted by Greenie

This seems pretty hypothetical to me though, as any "Seer" hinting directly enough for the QT to notice would probably have been noticed by the living wolves already anyway.

Coupled with a reminder ala Pitch's memory, not only do the ordos in QT not know anymore than we do, but the wolves in QT can only PM each other, not wolves alive in the GT at Night. QT wolves would be just as interested in 'seer' hints. If the fake seer is an ordo haphazardly trying to create cover and they accidentally single out an innocent, they might sit back and let QT ordos go for it first since neither the Ranger nor Hunter know who the actual Seer is anyways.
Living wolves in the GT would be more interested in who looks frustrated or generally upset over the fake seer as these could be signs of the actual Seer telling them to quit without too much reveal. This does require that living wolves in the GT do identify that the fake seer is indeed not real though, otherwise at least for a few Days, the fake-seer if successful at somehow influencing the QT vote could divide their attentions and expose them to players.
It could also be a reason why Pitch was selected the previous Night by the remaining wolves or Lal before.

Originally Posted by Rune

It is not a question of "belief", I know if the QT-vote was correct twice in a row or not (it wasn't). The real question is if you believe me or not.

Originally Posted by Rune, post #1179

You know it doesn't.

But I get why you would say that.

Considering that I have the majority of the time disregarded by voting on my own collected information or disagreed more openly with the QT votes for you, that should be the answer that I really don't believe you to be a wolf over a few Days now. If anything, I believe wolves have been using you as too convenient a cover or distraction and if the QT does that for them, all the better to buy them time for their main target. The success rate of the QT really doesn't attest to its infallibility and I've said that for Days now. So, I end up playing in my own corner and it makes me look suspicious.

The question is now since I am heavily suspected, by saying that I really do believe you to be innocent, does it matter to everyone else who follows the QT anyways?

Zil turned out to be innocent and by not going with the QT vote yesterDay, players feel a little cheated like they've missed out on possibly getting a wolf with either of us.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

So to me, the only logical reasons for them not to kill Boro are either

1) he was far enough off in one of his "dreams" that the wolves knew he wasn't the real Seer, or
2) he's one of them.

And

1a) After not falling for it. Granted I only tried to for like 2 days, once it turned out Lhuna was a wolf. I said what the heck, go for it and lay it on thick.

But wasn't convincing so now I'm probably being kept as an easy lynch. Can't deny no one really trusted me, except for the QT for 1.5 days. If they didn't fall for it, the pattern seems to be kill the people who look obviously innocent/difficult to lynch.

Eonwe and myself are the new Zil and Mac. At least that's what my thoughts are now. With my luck the QT innocents will now vote for me, because I ruined their trust and they're probably ****ed off. I still will tell them though, no rash decisions, I did all that I could to try to let the QT know I wasn't the seer. I thought it would send a good enough signal if they saw no purpose to what I was proposing and figured I'd be dead by now anyway.

[Thinlómien]

Hmmm. I reread Boro's non-reveal. I think I have been thinking him the seer for longer than he has pretended to be one, so perhaps I should blame mostly myself... I thought it explained not only some of his cryptic comments, but also why he gave me both unusual and innocent vibes, why he chose to act so weird on Day1, and why he's been so adamant about my innocence when basically everyone else has questioned it (and perhaps why he did such a legate180 about Brinn). I think his reveal sounds fairly innocent (why would a wolf do any of this? or admit it?), but I would like to ask him more than ever give his updated, honest opinion of everyone - but in particular Eönwë, Brinn and myself.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

I find it more likely that if anything, your fake-seeriness was an attempt to catch the real seer, which is why the two people who challenged you on it, Lalaith and Pitch, are dead.

I think this line of thought has some merit. I don't want to get super deep into this on theoretical or practical level because it could endanger the real seer, but in short: perhaps this is what could have drawn the wolves' attention to Lalaith and Pitch (possibly though even if Boro wasn't one of them). But that surely couldn't have been the wolves only reason to kill Lalaith and Pitch - in combination with having some seerish skepticism, they must have got some of their trusted villagers and/or top suspects right. Which, ironically, brings me back to Eönwë, whom they both suspected heavily.

Eönwë also reminds us of this slip of Boro's and it was enough to give me a pause:

Originally Posted by Boro

I would say most of our days have gone far too narrow. We put ourselves into pretty much just 2 options. Day 1 was G55 and Brinn. Day 2 Mac and Huey, Yesterday Inzil and sally. Today Lommy and Inzil.

I don't know a whole lot about the advocates for it, but I think we need a day where there's a lot more spread. Force the wolves into some tougher choices, instead of just picking between 2 innocents or whether they wanted to bus wolf-Huey or not.

Like, fair enough if he was pretending to have dreamt of innocent me and Brinn. But how did he know Inzil was innocent?

But as Lottie points out, Eönwë makes basically the same slip here:

Originally Posted by Eönwë

I still think his potential slip the previous Day (where it looked like he knew the identity of two innocents - now proven to be true) would be enough to make me want to make sure if I were a wolf.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

By which I mean Zil was proven to be true. The jury is still out on Brinn and maybe Lommy (depending on how you read the post).

I'm very confused all in all but - Eönwë, what post do you refer to? Why is the jury only "maybe" out on me?

Seriously this game is giving me a massive headache.

Originally Posted by Lottie

But also, it feels like you came out here toDay on a crusade to convince us that Boro's Seer hints plus the wolves not killing him means he's definitely a wolf. Which feels like the wolves decided he wasn't the Seer, and decided to go after him instead - which would be especially important if the wolves needed a big distraction to take the heat off of them.

This makes quite a lot of sense to me actually, but I'm also aware it's very much what I'd like to believe, so maybe I'm biased. Oh how easy this would be if the pack was Eönwë-Brinn-Ka and I could be right about some things for once and have a little break. It would be a simple explanation, and even in werewolf those are maybe a little more often correct than the über complicated ones.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

But if it was a slip, which two would I be talking about? Because there are three people that are implied innocent by this - you, Zil, and Brinn. Zil has been confirmed.

Are you saying you only slipped two of us are innocent because you know one of us is not? Gotcha. *Brinn-Eönwë-conspiracy intensifying*

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Whether or not the Zil-lynch yesterDay was orchestrated by the wolves (will need to look into who got it to happen), what was shown is that the village can be pushed to ignore the innocent QT's vote. This is bad.

What?! Are you saying the village has to lynch by default whoever the qt suggests?? That doesn't make any sense. As we have discussed ad nauseam, they might be a little more enlightened than we are but they are not infallible. (Certainly, if you look how they followed Boro. )

Originally Posted by Boro

I feel like needing to hide from Lommy for a moment.

Good thinking.

Originally Posted by Boro

In the end seer is still alive, so maybe it didn't work as I had intended, but to some extent it did.

...what? This sounds like your aim was to get the seer killed?

Originally Posted by Greenie

Why is my own sister calling me "virtually nobody"? Rude.

*blowing kisses in your direction*

I still don't suspect Lottie really (unless maybe if Boro turns out to be a wolf??) but her list made me raise about five eyebrows. What's the difference between "probably innocent" and "probably not a wolf"?? Like is there a middle ground? Also why on earth would you list yourself as "probably innocent"? Shouldn't you be more sure about that????

Originally Posted by THE Ka

I'm a little confused on this one, because it's the first time Eonwe really gives his full explanation for suspecting Rune, and it mostly seems to be based around Lhuna, but that hadn't I don't think been the basis of the suspicion until now. Also, did Lommy support this reading? I got the opposite impression from her posts and thought she'd ended up feeling Rune was innocent. Lottie also drops suspicion of Rune and I'm sure that was in relation to Lommy too.

Yes, I still think Legate's continued trust in Rune's innocence would have stood out to the wolves if they were reading through his posts, wondering if he was the seer. Maybe Rune is one of them and they thought Legate looked like the seer regardless. But I think it's more likely a wolf pack not involving Rune thought Legate was a seer that had dreamt of innocent Rune.

Originally Posted by Greenie

The wolves are bound to be pretty desperately looking for the Seer at this stage, and if half the village noticed Boro's hints, they're bound to have done.

I have been considering, what if not. What if our remaining wolves really are those who have not claimed to have noticed anything going on with Boro in the past, and have been baffled by his reveal toDay? Namely Brinn and Kath and presumably then either Ka or Shasta. That would be the funniest plot twist of all (and perhaps what Boro would deserve.)

Originally Posted by Greenie

As for the Eonwe connection - if it's option 1), this would mean either that Lommy and/or Brinn are wolves, and/or that Eonwe is innocent. More specifically, the Pitchwife kill doesn't make sense if they're going for the Seer, Eonwe is a wolf and Boro isn't; both Pitch and Boro suspected Eonwe, and I can't see how Pitch could have looked more Seer-ish to them than Boro. So I'd say if the wolves are gunning for the Seer and Boro isn't one of them, then Eonwe likely isn't, either. Make sense?

Yes, unless Brinn is a wolf. (Or for argument's sake: if I was.)

Originally Posted by THE Ka

Coupled with a reminder ala Pitch's memory, not only do the ordos in QT not know anymore than we do, but the wolves in QT can only PM each other, not wolves alive in the GT at Night. QT wolves would be just as interested in 'seer' hints. If the fake seer is an ordo haphazardly trying to create cover and they accidentally single out an innocent, they might sit back and let QT ordos go for it first since neither the Ranger nor Hunter know who the actual Seer is anyways.
Living wolves in the GT would be more interested in who looks frustrated or generally upset over the fake seer as these could be signs of the actual Seer telling them to quit without too much reveal. This does require that living wolves in the GT do identify that the fake seer is indeed not real though, otherwise at least for a few Days, the fake-seer if successful at somehow influencing the QT vote could divide their attentions and expose them to players.
It could also be a reason why Pitch was selected the previous Night by the remaining wolves or Lal before.

Did it take me this long to realise "GT" was not a typo for "QT" but an abbreviation of "game thread"? *facepalm* *sneaks off to confiscate they cuties' gin tonic bc it's us now who are the gin tonic thread*

More seriously though, I can't make very much sense of where you're getting with this, Ka. So do you think Boro is an innocent fake or a guilty fake?

Not sure what to make of Boro's newborn fatalism. Also:

Originally Posted by Boro

Can't deny no one really trusted me, except for the QT for 1.5 days.

I TRUSTED YOU BUT I COULDN'T SAY IT TOO OPENLY BECAUSE I THOUGHT YOU WERE THE SEER AND IT WAS BETTER TO KEEP ENOUGH VOICED SUSPICION ON YOU TO KEEP YOU ALIVE.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

And

1a) After not falling for it. Granted I only tried to for like 2 days, once it turned out Lhuna was a wolf. I said what the heck, go for it and lay it on thick.

But wasn't convincing so now I'm probably being kept as an easy lynch. Can't deny no one really trusted me, except for the QT for 1.5 days. If they didn't fall for it, the pattern seems to be kill the people who look obviously innocent/difficult to lynch.

Eonwe and myself are the new Zil and Mac. At least that's what my thoughts are now. With my luck the QT innocents will now vote for me, because I ruined their trust and they're probably ****ed off. I still will tell them though, no rash decisions, I did all that I could to try to let the QT know I wasn't the seer. I thought it would send a good enough signal if they saw no purpose to what I was proposing and figured I'd be dead by now anyway.

Genuinely not seeing Boro's side, why he thinks himself an easy lynch. Ka and Eonwe both go before Boro, IMO.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

++Ka

It's fine to go for Eonwe here too. Don't vote Lottie or Greenie.

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Boro

Can't deny no one really trusted me, except for the QT for 1.5 days.

I think Pitch did, actually. Like I said when I went through his posts, he definitely backed off quite quickly after initially engaging with Boro at the start of the Day.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Hmmm. I reread Boro's non-reveal. I think I have been thinking him the seer for longer than he has pretended to be one, so perhaps I should blame mostly myself... I thought it explained not only some of his cryptic comments, but also why he gave me both unusual and innocent vibes, why he chose to act so weird on Day1, and why he's been so adamant about my innocence when basically everyone else has questioned it (and perhaps why he did such a legate180 about Brinn). I think his reveal sounds fairly innocent (why would a wolf do any of this? or admit it?), but I would like to ask him more than ever give his updated, honest opinion of everyone - but in particular Eönwë, Brinn and myself.

In my own self-quarantine I've been going back to the earliest of earliest beginnings. I miss the banter and the "I suspect SPM because I was woken up by pots and pans banging" or "I saw horse prints at the scene, it has to be Firefoot!" Or how I nicknamed SPM, Spam, because of his habit to have long novels of analysis and theory on everyone and every topic.

Now everyone hates Day 1s. And the longer I stay around, the tighter things get, the more tense I get because I don't want my natural weirdness to cause irreparable damage. In the banter you can find the some of the best and most entertaining interactions.

Like, fair enough if he was pretending to have dreamt of innocent me and Brinn. But how did he know Inzil was innocent?

I don't think I did say anything about knowing Zil's innocence? It was G55 and Brinn Day 1. Day 2 Huey and Mac. Day 3 everyone voted sally, there was no other wagon.

Not sure what to make of Boro's newborn fatalism. Also:

I TRUSTED YOU BUT I COULDN'T SAY IT TOO OPENLY BECAUSE I THOUGHT YOU WERE THE SEER AND IT WAS BETTER TO KEEP ENOUGH VOICED SUSPICION ON YOU TO KEEP YOU ALIVE.

I took that as seriously no one trusted me. Like an "Ok I can lynch Boro whenever because he's weird." I mean, what you say in hindsight makes sense. At the time I was twitchy by all the suspicion people were tossing around, without actually getting the votes. Hence the nerves after sally's reveal that there could be a bandwagon against me.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Genuinely not seeing Boro's side, why he thinks himself an easy lynch. Ka and Eonwe both go before Boro, IMO.

Whenever I'm in these villages, I always feel like it won't take a lot for a bandwagon. Someone says they're the hunter/ranger/seer and it's "well let's lynch Boro." QT votes and it doesn't take a lot of convincing to hop on that train.

[Thinlómien]

Typical of the ball to start rolling just as I have to get to cooking dinner etc but -

I might prefer Eönwë over Ka just to relieve him of his suffering earlier

I'll be popping in and out for the rest of the Day but you can consider my werewolf fatigue greatly alleviated and my vote for Eönwë or Ka guaranteed.

[Thinlómien]

I almost feel like patting Boro on the head (if he's not guilty that is ).

For the record, your paranoia about a potential last-minute bandwagon against you greatly added to my belief that you were the seer

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Kath

I think Pitch did, actually. Like I said when I went through his posts, he definitely backed off quite quickly after initially engaging with Boro at the start of the Day.

Pitch definitely seems to have bought Boro's fake reveal.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I'm very confused all in all but - Eönwë, what post do you refer to? Why is the jury only "maybe" out on me?

Boro's post, quoted yet again:

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I would say most of our days have gone far too narrow. We put ourselves into pretty much just 2 options. Day 1 was G55 and Brinn. Day 2 Mac and Huey, Yesterday Inzil and sally. Today Lommy and Inzil.

I don't know a whole lot about the advocates for it, but I think we need a day where there's a lot more spread. Force the wolves into some tougher choices, instead of just picking between 2 innocents or whether they wanted to bus wolf-Huey or not.

I felt like one possible interpretation is that in talking about innocents he may have only been talking about previous Days - and this seems to have maybe been the interpretation taken by Lalaith because she only pushes him on Day 1 (Brinn) and Zil (Day 3). But upon reread it does seem less likely.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Yes, unless Brinn is a wolf. (Or for argument's sake: if I was.)

That's fair actually. Hm...

Anyway, regardless of all this madness, THE Ka is still the likeliest wolf in my book. I'm on the fence about Rune and Brinn, second-guessing Lottie (Lommy is right, that list was weird) and somewhat Eonwe too, and starting to get paranoid about Kath. I'm feeling pretty good about Lommy and Shasta, and will now stop talking about Boro because that's what he deserves.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I still don't suspect Lottie really (unless maybe if Boro turns out to be a wolf??) but her list made me raise about five eyebrows. What's the difference between "probably innocent" and "probably not a wolf"?? Like is there a middle ground? Also why on earth would you list yourself as "probably innocent"? Shouldn't you be more sure about that????

Originally I had only two groups, but I got nervous about being that confident about so many people, so I split the innocent group and put Boro and Rune into a slightly less confident group. Also, yes, I am very confident that I am innocent! But with the village getting so small, it was helpful for me at least to write out all of the names, and see who's left on the other side: Ka, Eonwe, Brinn, and Shasta (but only by default).

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Originally I had only two groups, but I got nervous about being that confident about so many people, so I split the innocent group and put Boro and Rune into a slightly less confident group. Also, yes, I am very confident that I am innocent! But with the village getting so small, it was helpful for me at least to write out all of the names, and see who's left on the other side: Ka, Eonwe, Brinn, and Shasta (but only by default).

I'm so sad that your only feeling about me is default.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I'm so sad that your only feeling about me is default.

My gut feeling is to trust you. I just don't think I have enough logic to back that up, so I won't commit to your innocence based only on a feeling.

[Eönwë]

I still see no good reason for Boro to try what he did as an innocent for the reason he gave. It required him to really really strongly believe that Brinn, Zil, and Lommy were good and I was evil, and I find it very unlikely that any innocent is confident enough to do that and take such a gamble.

On the other hand, if he's a wolf, getting those innocents on his side would be a good way to softly take control of the village and exert some influence - he both gets to be listened to, and gets to hush discussion of a possible slip he made. A nice attempt at a save, but I still don't buy it.


+- Boro

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

...what? This sounds like your aim was to get the seer killed?

At the very least an extremely poor choice of wording.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

So yet another list from my hand… Inspired by Lottie.
This is not a thorough summarization of pros and cons, just a status on my feelings right now.

Big ol' wolf
Eönwë - Seriously let's get this done.

Possible wolf:
Brinn - My initial suspicion of her dwindled somewhat, probably due to her voting pattern and her playing it pretty safe.

Seems more innocent than not
Ka - I haven’t personally spotted any clear wolf like behaviour, but I see suspicion is mounting.
Boro - I assumed him the seer. Right now I believe him innocent. But it is a confusing plot, that could be devious.
Shasta - Probably the person I have the least read on.
Lottie - I started thinking Lottie looked very suspicious, but as the game progresses I think she makes more and more sense.

Probably innocent:
Lommy - Hmm there was the whole Sally thing so maybe she belong further up the list, but otherwise I feel really good about Lommy.
Greenie - Nothing but good vibes, she over analyzes stuff though.
Kath - Seems Kath-like and helpful (in the innocent way)

I have a toddler feeling ill at home, and a girlfriend taking an exam, so I will be voting shortly. Just in case. I will in all likelihood vote for Eönwë.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

Shasta - Probably the person I have the least read on.

My feelings!

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

++Eönwë

Because I cannot remember being more convinced of someone's guilt, ever.

I hope to be able to pop in a bit before deadline, but no promises.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I think at this point if I had to pick a third wolf for an Eonwe/Ka duo it would be Brinn. Outside shot at Kath, maybe - I've barely looked at her.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Rune

Greenie - Nothing but good vibes, she over analyzes stuff though.

This is basically my life in a nutshell.

I won’t be able to stay around until DL toDay, so I’ll go with my best lead and vote

++THE Ka

In short –

I've been wondering about her for a while now. Her interactions with both known wolves are compatible with them being fellows; they don’t really interact at all except for Ka posting an oddly long bit on D1 about Lhuna’s time constraints and how they make her hard to read (I’m not sure if a Ka who wasn’t Lhuna’s packmate would have had cause to think about this or at least not in that much detail; this is a tiny thing but as their pretty much only interaction it did catch my eye), and then being the first to vote Lhuna after the QT vote. I agree with Boro’s assessment of this being a potentially easy wolf-on-wolf vote as she just followed the QT and thus made herself look good in case Lhuna was lynched while not giving other prospective voters any further reasons to vote her.

Additionally, since Inzil was innocent after all, this makes me rethink Ka’s reaction to Kitanna’s slip. She seconded Inzil calling it curious and thus contributed to flushing out a likely Gifted, but then stayed out of the ensuing discussion with Kit herself. Consequently, she evaded basically all of the scrutiny and suspicion that followed for Inzil, Lhuna, and to some extent Pitch.

So no, I haven’t actually caught her slipping or doing anything outrageous, but I wouldn’t expect to. I refer back to what I said on D1 about how she seems very reasonable but this doesn’t give us anything as she’s just as reasonable when she’s evil.

[Eönwë]

What if it's actually a Boro-Lottie-Shasta pack? They're all, either subtly or openly, defending each other and pushing Ka with me as a second option. I really don't like this, and I feel like they're hoping to get the two of (me and Ka) killed over the next two Days and win.

[Eönwë]

There is an alternative that one of the aforementioned pack is replaced by Rune, but that seems a little less likely to me.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

++Eönwë

Because I cannot remember being more convinced of someone's guilt, ever.

You'll be disappointed then.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Anyway, regardless of all this madness, THE Ka is still the likeliest wolf in my book. I'm on the fence about Rune and Brinn, second-guessing Lottie (Lommy is right, that list was weird) and somewhat Eonwe too, and starting to get paranoid about Kath. I'm feeling pretty good about Lommy and Shasta, and will now stop talking about Boro because that's what he deserves.

Fair enough, I'll just say though, I'm not the only one dropping seer hinting like crazy over the last couple days. I feel like we have 5 seers or none.

To answer Lommy on my real impressions...

I genuinely think I have a good read on Lommy, so sorry for you to find out I often include you in planning. It's just a habit, you're someone I read well.

I also feel good about Kath. Her questioning were like the few moments of clarity I had, because I don't feel like I'm getting tricked.

Lottie after I caused a disturbance Day 4, also someone I put in "trust."

Greenie I lean innocent, but not someone I would say I "trust."

Unsure about Rune and Shasta at the moment, because they're going with the seer vibes, which could be innocent as well, but after I came out with the truth they could be trying to seize on an opportunity. As they add to my feeling that we have all these seers, but none at the same time.

Eonwe and Brinn I could vote for either today, but not my preference. I think we need (or maybe just myself) a full day of rethinking since I kind of threw a big wrench at everyone today.

Ka as my preferred choice and vote today.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

...what? This sounds like your aim was to get the seer killed?

Originally Posted by Eönwë

At the very least an extremely poor choice of wording.

I interpreted it as Boro's plan was to draw the Night kill away from the Seer. It didn't work - he wasn't Night killed - but neither was the Seer, so no harm no foul.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I interpreted it as Boro's plan was to draw the Night kill away from the Seer. It didn't work - he wasn't Night killed - but neither was the Seer, so no harm no foul.

Aye. Sorry if how I worded it was confusing.

[Eönwë]

If Ka actually is evil, I don't think the remaining two of Boro, Shasta, and Lottie would want to sacrifice her like that, so the wolves (or at least one of them) might be elsewhere.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

If Ka actually is evil, I don't think the remaining two of Boro, Shasta, and Lottie would want to sacrifice her like that, so the wolves (or at least one of them) might be elsewhere.

The remaining two?

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Loslote

The remaining two?

There are 3 wolves; if Ka is one, then one of you three (Boro, Shasta, Lottie) is an innocent and thus there are two remaining wolves.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

There is an alternative that one of the aforementioned pack is replaced by Rune, but that seems a little less likely to me.

Follow-up: Looking at the voting yesterDay, if Rune is evil then Lottie probably isn't as well, so that would leave the wolf-pack as Boro-Shasta-Rune.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

There are 3 wolves; if Ka is one, then one of you three (Boro, Shasta, Lottie) is an innocent and thus there are two remaining wolves.

You've certainly narrowed it down awfully far.

[Nogrod]

I'm late. Sorry.

QT vote in a moment.

[Thinlómien]

This is what I meant by relieving Eönwë of his suffering. His posting toDay is coming across as an increasingly desperate wolf.

[Nogrod]

The Quarantine Thread has voted.


++ Brinniel

[THE Ka]

[RL - Since I'm pretty much dead to rights anyways and I have a lot to do today before I leave home for a funeral, I might as well get my vote out of the way. It might be better to shuffle me off to the QT anyways, because I won't have access to a desktop here for the next three days and only my phone at times. Thanks everyone for a fun play. ]

As I said yesterDay, if you have evidence to suspect me before the QT, then go with what you've trusted for Days now. I don't take offense in a good play.

++Brinn

I've suspected them in the beginning, decided to give them a pass after the QT vote to see if they'd start defending themselves and giving more reason why not to suspect them, but they've remained rather quiet instead and only made agreeable commentary. I still consider it an early Days slip that they were so complimentary of Huin's 'insights'.

x'ed with Nog. Sorry.