Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Boromir88]

Oh and well, Evil side has control of the QT vote today as well. It will be interesting to see what vote they give us. Since the vote comes 2 hours before our own DL, with how our DL's go. I'm wondering if we try the "proposed vote" again today...like someone said, "fake vote" just sounds inaccurate. Then see what the evil QT vote gives us.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I broke yesterDay's voters into six groups, as follows, and I personally think those groups say a lot. Could there have been wolf on wolf? Absolutely, but I think you can still say that the people who really swung the vote Huin's way look pretty good.

How do you define "early" and "late" in your vote grouping?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

How do you define "early" and "late" in your vote grouping?

Before and after it became clear that the main options to vote were Mac and Huin.

[Pitchwife]

To be spiecific:

Originally Posted by Eönwë #418

Seems fine for now (won't vote unless something changes)
[..., omission mine]
Huinesoron - Nothing pinging any alarm bells so far. Lots of well-thought-out posts.

Then all of a sudden, in #552, he's 'open to a Huey vote', with no explanation. So, what has changed?


Also, I've read through Hui's posts since yesterDay (assign him to Mordor for those walls of text!), and there were a few interesting points where he refers to Eönwë:

Originally Posted by Hui #289

And if Eonwe is a wolf who masterminded the wagon and then didn't even need to climb on it (switching to a vote-the-absentee strategy on Urwen), then he pulled it off with masterful skill.

This, IMO, has a whiff of a cub licking a senior wolf's muzzle.

Originally Posted by Hui #354

Quiet!Eonwe still worries me a bit, but I'll call this one a wash. I'm going to note his Boro-Pitch theory here to look back on; I don't think I'm following it correctly right now, so I want to read it again later.

Non-committal worries + noting the 'Boro-Pitch-theory' (i.e. Boro and I as packmates 'at arm's length'; I'd call that a hypothesis at best!) as something to maybe pick up later if he needs another suspicion.

[Macalaure]

Before I go into anything else... I find it absolutely amazing that after two years, and many more years for some of us, werewolf went straight back to its heyday. That deadline yesterDay was about as exciting as it gets, and not just because I was in it!


You have no idea how good it felt to see Hui revealed as a wolf. No. Idea.

I didn't think Kitanna actually was the ranger. Dang.

About that whole framing business... I'm kind of proven wrong there as absolutely nobody went along with it. The most I got was "I can see where he's coming from, but it's still stupid" from one or two people. I'd like to tell myself that I called the wolves out so they changed their plan on the fly, but I fear I'd be deluding myself there. And even if, I daresay I gave them plenty ammunition to go after me in other ways.

I'm still very much convinces that Greenie is a wolf, but I'm gonna analyze Hui and the madness of the voting first

And holy quote-spam, Inzil.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Oh and well, Evil side has control of the QT vote today as well. It will be interesting to see what vote they give us. Since the vote comes 2 hours before our own DL, with how our DL's go. I'm wondering if we try the "proposed vote" again today...like someone said, "fake vote" just sounds inaccurate. Then see what the evil QT vote gives us.

Crap. I hadn't thought about that, actually. What level of bluff will they try, I wonder?


x'd with Mac

[Pitchwife]

And yes, Eönwë did give Hui the deciding vote to put him ahead of Mac, but I think it could have been a case of 'push what's falling' and reckoning he'd look better for it.

[Brinniel]

So some highlights on Hui...

Day 1, he writes up most of his opinions in #183 (not quoting it because it's long). An essential summary of that Day is that he suspects Lommy and Pitch and to a lesser degree G55. He votes G55 to prevent me from getting lynched.

Day 2 highlights:

Originally Posted by Hui

Okay. Pitch and Lommy were my main suspicions yesterday; they don't look as bad (so far) today, but neither am I totally comfortable with them. Zil looks dodgy, Lottie looks dodgy but only when paired with Zil. Boro is giving me bad vibes but nothing I can articulate, and I don't like Mac's 'what if everyone thinks I'm a wolf' theory much at all.

On the innocent side: Greenie has does good work on (actual reasons) why Brinn might be suspicious, and Legate is still striking me as innocent. Brinn herself… I agree that the evidence is piling up, but I still think the Brinn-wagon was suspicious as all get-out, so can't see how she could be a wolf.

Originally Posted by Hui

Have looked over Mac's #405, and I don't like it. He seems to be focussing heavily on the people who suspect him, and explaining why that must make them wolves. Okay, I've read enough Werewolf to know that innocents do this, but a) so do wolves, and with a good deal more urgency, and b) didn't Mac spend a big post early toDay explaining how he thinks G55 thought he was a wolf? He even brings it up again here.

And yes, there are more details, but with the amount of words that have been thrown around you can build some kind of case against everyone. The fact remains that his case against Greenie relies heavily on 'this is exactly how I’d expect a Green wolf to act'.

At the moment, my vote would probably go to Mac or Pitch. Pitch has been looking better toDay, but as I said (earlier toDay, I think?), I tend to read him as reasonable when he's responding to me anyway. So I need to go back and read him over again.

Lommy has... has she been posting? Right, a bit at the end of page 9, and onto 10. That explains why she hasn't struck me as suspicious for a while - she's not been here? I'll look over her as well, but my memory is that I've felt slightly better about her toDay.

The Zil/Lottie connection seems to have evaporated, so I'm tentatively calling Lottie innocent (and see no reason to change my earlier placing of Greenie and Legate in that category). Zil has... wow, has really been pushing this Kit-discussion, hasn't he? Leaning against trusting him still.

Crossposts from people named above: Lommy is back and, oh stars, literally saying 'flip-flopping'. But I think I'm getting a feel for her style, and this doesn't feel wolfish. I'll still reread to check what I was worried about before (too many villagers, I can't remember who did what!)

Zil has posted with... a short, zero-content post. 'Short' seems to be his style, but #412 does take it to extremes. Overtones of 'let me drop back into the shadows'. So I stand by my 'wolfish' read.

Originally Posted by Hui

Okay, reading over my main suspects (Mac, Pitch, Lommy, Zil, in that order for now):

Mac: Thought innocent yesterDay, but realised today that was down to not trusting the way people were suspecting him, when those people were a (now) known and a probable innocent. ToDay, launched straight into 'what if everyone thinks I'm a wolf', and starts in on Kitanna, which is an interesting line in view of, y'know... Kitanna. And he keeps trying to implicate the people who suspect him. I really don't like this.

Pitchwife: My chief suspect yesterDay, for his actions in the GLP & several 'just asking questions' posts; also his position on the Brinn-wagon (both suspicion and voting). Launches toDay with "this may implicate Brinn, except isn't that almost too obvious?" - I'm starting to view this less as 'just asking questions', and more as 'they will say both no and yes'. He suspects Zil with no explanation (at the time), and later pushes both the start and the stop of the Kit discussion, including one 'saw it as I was writing' crosspost that makes me feel like his post was intended to take credit for starting the 'let's shut it down' discussion.

Lommy: My second suspect yesterDay, mostly for reasons of tone I think. ToDay, she seems a lot better. #350 is a good example of this - she's not sitting there saying 'yes, but maybe no', she's analysing the evidence for both (all) sides of the discussion. And she's cast the first vote, too.

Zil: Completely off my radar yesterDay; it's those short posts of his. Today, spent a fair few posts talking about things we know aren't true, such as Rikae-wolf; even more posts on the Kit discussion; really, I'm seeing a lot of posts where Zil's contribution is shorter than what he's replying to! It may be just his style, so he's not top of my list, but he does look (at least at times) like a wolf trying to look active without having to say much.

I'm starting to worry I might just trust people who write long posts on multiple topics. :-/

Okay, at the moment I'm likely to vote Mac, but will take Pitch as still looking about as suspicious as yesterday (Mac's just more suspicious). Lommy I'm going to call neutral for now. Zil I think there's a better-than-even chance is a wolf.

At the moment, two of my top three have 1 vote each. It's going to be interesting to see who gets offered up to take the heat off them...

Originally Posted by Hui

Okay, I've snatched a few minutes. To the people suspicious of me - it seems like most of this comes out of my misreading/over-simplifying things? I've taken the concrit on board, and will make sure to read more carefully toMorrow. (I have a bad habit of semi-skimming over bits of posts, and then forgetting that there was anything between the first and last points to catch my eye.) I welcome the scrutiny - all you'll find is that I've tried my best to follow the evidence.

ToMorrow is the weekend; not sure how that'll affect my posting, but I'll definitely try to answer any questions about my thinking.

(And to whoever said I sound like a salesman - probably! I've spent the past five or six years routinely sending emails with 'thank you, and best regards' at the end, it's a hard habit to break!)

Checking for cross-posts... okay, I got a vote, and I'm bad for Mac's blood pressure, but ultimately I don't see anything to change my stated intention (specifically including, nothing in Mac's post (last second edit: posts) allays my worries). So since I now have to go:

++Macalaure

Based on this, my opinions of Lommy and Pitch haven't changed. I think Hui would've been more likely to place actual innocents in his innocent list, which makes me think better of Legate and Greenie (or at least that both of them can't be wolves).

I'd imagine that Hui wouldn't put just innocents in his suspect list and from that list I think Inzil is most likely to be his packmate. He suspects him without fully committing to it, plus I already found him to be pretty suspicious yesterDay.

The timing of Hui's vote for Mac makes me think better of Mac. He was the third to vote him and at that time it looked like there was a real chance Mac could get lynched and before the bandwagon against Hui began. I have doubts that Hui would risk that.

Will also be looking at the votes shortly.

X-ed since #595. Either I post too slow or y'all are posting too fast!

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Before and after it became clear that the main options to vote were Mac and Huin.

That just doesn't add up.

You have four people listed as voting Huin early, and me listed as voting elsewhere late, but when I voted only Legate had voted Huin.

You also write this about the votes for you:

Originally Posted by Loslote

However, they came at a point where the bandwagons were starting to look pretty set

.

Really? By the first vote only Mac and Lommy had more than a single vote, and the second vote made you tied for second most votes together with Lommy and Hui (one vote after Mac).

Fair enough if you find the votes suspicious, but your interpretation of the timing of events seems flawed.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

You have no idea how good it felt to see Hui revealed as a wolf. No. Idea.

My wife said she heard me cry YES!!! in the room above her when I read the narration.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I'm still very much convinces that Greenie is a wolf, but I'm gonna analyze Hui and the madness of the voting first

Could well be. There were a few exchanges between Hui and Greenie where it looked like he was taking guidance from her, so them being packmates doesn't seem unplausible.



Let it be said though, Mac, if you turn out to be a wolf I'll smother you under a heap of used handkerchiefs!

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

That just doesn't add up.

You have four people listed as voting Huin early, and me listed as voting elsewhere late, but when I voted only Legate had voted Huin.

You also write this about the votes for you:

.

Really? By the first vote only Mac and Lommy had more than a single vote, and the second vote made you tied for second most votes together with Lommy and Hui (one vote after Mac).

Fair enough if you find the votes suspicious, but your interpretation of the timing of events seems flawed.

When I saw you vote, my first reaction was, "What? Why? The people who suspect me have already voted." In my opinion, you have to take into account the overall momentum, not just the actual votes. When you voted, and especially when Ka voted, the momentum had shifted so that Mac and Huin were, at least in my mind at the time, the clear front runners.

[Pitchwife]

On Hui's vocal opposition to the Brinnwagon and voting to save her: I think it's quite possible that he knew her to be innocent and was trying to make himself good in retrospect if she was lynched.


In #346 Greenie says there was something going on here, but Hui's defense of Brinn was too open for a wolf defending a packmate. In a way it is, but supposing the three of them to be packmates, it would make sense for her to try to dissociate Hui and Brinn in case either were lynched and found Infected.

[Lalaith]

Well, no more doubt around KitRanger.

YesterDay's Hueywagon turned out well, but it seemed to me to come out of nowhere. It's the same issue I had with the sudden push on Brinn the previous Day.
Adding to my trepidation was the fact that Lottie and Pitch, who I was very wary of, were on it.

Zil can I say that despite my earlier good feelings about you I don't like this as a reaction to the Hueywaggon. The first person to vote for Huey was Legate (now this I admit is not something that fits in with my current world-view but hey) but the second person was Kit who put together a good case but more importantly was to my mind at least a known innocent. So no, not "out of nowhere".
Mac

I didn't think Kitanna actually was the ranger. Dang.

Seriously? Logically, the only thing she could have been, other than the ranger, was the seer. Yesterday, I repeatedly asked people who doubted her innocence for justification and got none.
I did wonder about this yesterDay, and when that vote she led against Huey turned out so effective I really did think she really was the Seer. But well done KitRanger for leading us to catch the wolf. Hope you're celebrating in QT!

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Therefore I would look toDay very hard at everyone who voted Mac after Huin got the first vote. Those were the people who protected Huin and there's almost certain to be AT LEAST one wolf in there, possibly more.

Probably.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

The Hui bandwagon really did come from nowhere - I'm just glad I trusted my gut. I don't think the wolves saw that bandwagon coming, however, I do think there's a fair chance that a wolf is hiding among the Hui voters, so I will not disregard them.

I'm thinking the initial votes on him might have been unexpected, with at least one voting for him, hoping that either A. He wouldn't be lynched in the end, or B. xe would deflect a bit of suspicion for having voted for a wolf.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Another Day in which the baddies have deciding power in the QT vote. That thread has got to be getting interesting.

At least Huey and G55 can't PM.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Sadly I don't think we can conclude basically anything of the Kitanna kill, any pack would've done that. I'm really not sure what to make of Brinn's statement that she thought Kit might be an ordo... like seriously????

I'm still flummoxed as to why they gave her an extra Day.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

It would be convenient for a wolf to hide behind the "I trust Kit" reason. Revealed ranger, highly likely to be night killed, I can see being a good spot for a wolf to ally themselves and look good.

Oh yes. Perfect cover.

Originally Posted by Loslote

What an opening post. I am a little surprised that with all those quoted posts, your only actual comments are that Pitch and I are still suspicious...despite voting for a wolf at a pivotal moment...with no mention of the people whose votes might have worked to save Huin, which in my opinion, is a far more suspicious group of people. And which happens to include you.

It wasn't really meant as an analysis, just a list (including myself).

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Zil can I say that despite my earlier good feelings about you I don't like this as a reaction to the Hueywaggon. The first person to vote for Huey was Legate (now this I admit is not something that fits in with my current world-view but hey) but the second person was Kit who put together a good case but more importantly was to my mind at least a known innocent. So no, not "out of nowhere".

Not the first two votes. Legate looks solid: he had been suspecting Huey all Day. Kit was more of a surprise, but it was the way it snowballed from there that was surprising.

[Thinlómien]

Lommy -> Macalaure
Kath -> Inzil
Lhuna -> Lommy

There we go for starters. I don't find anything particularly comment-worthy about these votes in the light of how things developed, but I think Lhuna's parting shot "Friendly reminder, a bandwagon does not start with the first vote. " is still rather ominous. Care to elaborate what you were referring to, Lhuna?


Macalaure -> Lommy 2
QT -> Brinniel

Mac is consistent with his earlier suspicions, QT we can disregard.


Greenie -> Macalaure 2

Now this is interesting. The vote isn't very incriminating if you look at the tally, but if you consider that Legate had started suggesting Huine-lynch before Greenie voted and at least three people had commented on the suggestion with varying degrees of enthusiasm - while Greenie? Didn't say a word about Hui but kept talking about whether she would prefer Mac or Brinn. Now voting Mac was certainly consistent with her earlier suspicions, but as she's said herself, consistency isn't necessarily a sign of innocence. Of course her reasons might have been entirely innocent, but it does stand out to me that she deliberately chooses not to participate in the "is lynching Hui a good idea" discussion that's going on around her.


Legate -> Huinesoron

So: Legate had suspected Hui before, but I wouldn't say they were his main suspect. He said he was considering voting them, Lottie or Brinn, while he was reluctant to take a stand on Lommy-vs-Mac. As you can see, Brinn had one vote at this point and had been under heavy suspicion, and while Lottie had no votes, several people had mentioned her as suspicious too. Huinesoron, by comparison, seemed to be under most people's radar. I can't for the life of me fathom why legatewolf would have dragged his fellow Huine to the execution block like this when they were flying under so many people's radars, (not even if their comrades happened to be Lottie, Brinn and Mac). Especially since he literally said he doesn't want to vote Huine if nobody will join him.


Huinesoron -> Macalaure 3

I don't think this says much. Hui pretty much declared they will vote Mac before, and even if he was their fellow wolf, he was pretty resigned to getting lynched and they might have been prioritising self-preservation as suspicion was gathering around them at this point.


Rune -> Loslote
Kitanna -> Huinesoron 2
THE Ka -> Loslote 2

Now we can safely disregard Kit (sorry angel!), but Rune and THE Ka certainly stand out. When Rune voted, Huin still had only one vote, and the scene had not yet been set. Rune adding yet more candidate on the table (especially since "whether or not to spread the vote" was a minor discussion topic), is not particularly telling either way. Perhaps an uber-protective packmate would have rather voted Mac in case people would actually join Legate in a hueywagon, but I don't think Rune is that type of wolf.

THE Ka? Like Greenie, gives the vibe that she just wants to ignore the Huinescussion and perhaps silence it that way. She could have voted Lottie in hopes of creating a yet another bandwagon that might gain momentum instead of the huinewagon.


Pitchwife -> Huinesoron 3

Now this vote is the one that made Huine a serious lynch candidate. Paired with the impulsive sounding comment "You know what, let's.", it would be pretty brazen wolf-on-wolf, and frankly if Pitch is that bold as a wolf, he probably deserved not to get suspected toDay anyway.


Loslote -> Huinesoron 4

Basically voted Huine because she was considering it and Legate told her to. This btw would make wolf!Legate an absolutely brutal backstabber. If Lottie was aiming for mere self-preservation, she could have just as well gone for Mac, which I personally think Wolflote would have been more likely to do even if Mac is a wolf too.


Sally -> Macalaure 4

Another one who steered clear of the Huine issue, wondered aloud if she should vote Mac or Lottie. Went for Mac who had more votes of the two at the time when Huine was rapidly gaining more votes. Extremely dubious vote - especially if we take into account that at least to me at this point Huine didn't seem like a "lost case" at all.


Inzil -> Macalaure 5

"Because I distrust Lottie, and to a lesser extent, Pitch." Huh? Basically implied without straight up saying so that he would prefer not to lynch Huinesoron. The placement of this vote is pretty dodgy, but Inzil's last minute "Watch Huey be a wolf. " (after the lynch was resolved but the deadline had not come yet) has a very innocent ring to me.


Lalaith -> Huinesoron 5
Brinn -> Huinesoron 6

These two cross-posted with each other. Lalaith had been avoiding the Huine debacle too, but said she trusts Kit, so went with them. Brinn said "let's see what happens..." Now at this point, Huine was quite possible toast already, so these votes don't strike me as as innocent as the earlier Huine votes. This was the moment when a fellow might have voted for Huine to look better, if at any point. Especially Lalaith's pious "I'm following Kit" makes me raise eyebrows a little. But to clarify: I don't think these votes are suspicious, just the least overwhelmingly innocent in the huinewagon which looks very innocent to me overall.


Boro -> Mac 6

Claims to have crossposted, I'm not sure with quite how many votes. Still, clearly a vote that was - intentionally or unintentionally - towards saving Huinesoron. Therefore, deserves scrutiny.


Eönwë -> Huinesoron 7

This one sealed the deal. As far as I understand, he was up to date and aware that he was condemning Huine. Pretty bold, when he could have as well sat back and seen what Shasta would do. Or voted Mac to save Huine. Generally a very innocent-seeming vote, but I'd like him to elaborate what he meant by the "it's going to have to be" here: "Ok, with the vote count looking as it is, it looks like it's going to have to be: ++Huinesoron"


Shasta -> Mac 7

A pointless vote, and he knew it. I don't think we can judge this much as it is, but I want to add that Shasta, too, largely refrained on commenting Hui. I wonder if he's a wolf and sat around looking at the situation develop, wondering if he should save Hui but deciding not to stick his neck out that far after all. His vote, too, was very safe.


edit: predictably xed with everyone

[Brinniel]

The votes...

Lommy -> Macalaure
Kath -> Inzil
Lhuna -> Lommy
Macalaure -> Lommy 2
QT -> Brinniel
Greenie -> Macalaure 2
Legate -> Huinesoron
Huinesoron -> Macalaure 3
Rune -> Loslote
Kitanna -> Huinesoron 2
THE Ka -> Loslote 2
Pitchwife -> Huinesoron 3
Loslote -> Huinesoron 4
Sally -> Macalaure 4
Inzil -> Macalaure 5
Lalaith -> Huinesoron 5
Brinn -> Huinesoron 6
Boro -> Mac 6
Eönwë -> Huinesoron 7
Shasta -> Mac 7

Least suspicious votes of the Hui voters are Legate and Pitchwife. They were earlier and really got the ball rolling. Eonwe or Lalaith could possibly be wolf-on-wolf votes if they thought he was not worth saving. I'm somewhere in between the two on Lottie.

Of the Mac voters, I find Inzil's to be most suspect, as his vote came smack dab in the middle. Lommy's vote seems least suspicious to me due to its timing. Shasta voted after any vote really mattered which doesn't tell me much. I think there could be another wolf hiding among this group - maybe Boro, Sally, or to a lesser extent Greenie.

Five players did not vote either Hui or Mac and I feel fairly certain at least one is a baddie floating under the radar. Mac seems innocentish due to reasons I previously mentioned. I feel a little better about Kath because I agree with her suspicion of Inzil and he potentially could've been a lynch candidate at that point when she voted. Worse about Lhuna based on some of her posts yesterDay (including the parting comment about bandwagons). And I really go back and forth on Rune and Greenie - not sure what to think of them. This is a group I will probably take a better look at later this evening.

X-ed with Lommy

[Macalaure]

I will have the advantage to analyze the voting knowing the role of both main targets.

Lommy -> Mac (1)
Kicking it off. There was widespread suspicion of me at the time. The bandwaggon was fueled up, and Lommy turned the ignition. This would be the mean way to interpret it. On the other hand, Lommy had been after me for a while and her vote is consistent with that.

Kath -> Inzil (1)
Not much to say here. This vote looks fine to me.

Lhuna -> Lommy (1)
Not really following her suspicion, to be honest, but other than that this one seems fine enough.

Mac -> Lommy (2)
Not the smartest vote of my life, but hey.

QT -> Brinniel (1)
(known cobbler vote)

Greenie -> Mac (2)
There's a bunch of things that feel wrong about the way she's been suspecting me, but I think I'll get to that later. The vote by itself doesn't seem bad.

Legate -> Huin (1)
My Hero!

An early vote for Huin could be a wolf-on-wolf, but:
- he urged others to follow, which wolf-on-wolfers tend to not do
- it came at a time where a swing towards Huin was already in the air

Huin -> Mac (3)
(known wolf vote)

Rune -> Loslote (1)
Votes for his prime suspect at a time where a swing was still possible, so this seems ok with me.

Kitanna -> Huin (2)
(known innocent vote)

THE Ka -> Loslote (2)
Her reasoning is pretty close to Kitanna's. I'm ok with this one.

Pitch -> Huin (3)
The vote that made it an official bandwaggon. If this was wolf-on-wolf, it was as cold as a dog's snout.

Loslote -> Huin (4)
Loslote might have felt some heat at this point, but if this was all about wolfish self-preservation, she could have very easily justified a vote for me at this point. Pretty innocent.

Sally -> Mac (4)
No, Sally! Bad, Sally!

Inzil -> Mac (5)
Not a good look right there.

Lalaith -> Huin (5)
Lalaith was fairly uncommitted at this point, and probably could have justified a vote for nearly anyone, so this looks pretty good to me.

Brinn -> Huin (6)
Stated a possible vote for him for a while at this point, so this again looks pretty innocent.

Boro -> Mac (6)
At this point, wolf-saving-wolf votes become a bit bold, because they're so glaring. I can't wrap my mind around Boro. He needs looking at.

Eonwe -> Huin (7)
The final death sentence. At this point, Huin was of course ready to be sacrificed for the other wolves. Still, he could've gone with someone else. Stated willingness to vote for him before.

Shasta -> Mac (7)
Waited until everything was decided. Mildly eyebrow-raising.

Suspicion based on votes only:
Bad: Sally, Inzil
Not good: Boro
Neutral: Lommy, Lhuna, Greenie, Shasta
Ok: Rune, THE Ka, Eonwe
Good: Kath, Legate, Pitch, Loslote, Lalaith, Brinn

[Pitchwife]

On the people Hui soft-suspected but never voted (possible wolf-on-wolf): There was a lot of to-and-fro with and about Lommy (which I need to look at again), and he suspected Lottie and Zil, but only in combination with each other (which IMO makes it unlikely they're both wolves). Zil was more wolvish according to him ('a better-than-even-chance he's a wolf', #429), Lottie only in association with him.

This could be Hui mildly suspecting packmate Lottie but really trying to tarnish Zil, or trying to tarnish innocent Lottie by association if Zil would be found a wolf at some point. Or possibly just casting suspicion on two innocents.
And then of course there's myself, which I leave to you.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Five players did not vote either Hui or Mac and I feel fairly certain at least one is a baddie floating under the radar. Mac seems innocentish due to reasons I previously mentioned. I feel a little better about Kath because I agree with her suspicion of Inzil and he potentially could've been a lynch candidate at that point when she voted. Worse about Lhuna based on some of her posts yesterDay (including the parting comment about bandwagons). And I really go back and forth on Rune and Greenie - not sure what to think of them. This is a group I will probably take a better look at later this evening.

Just realized there are six voters in this group - completely missed Ka! Gotta keep a better eye on her as she's clearly flying under my radar.

X-ed with Mac and Pitch

[A Little Green]

Oh the joys of social distancing – I actually spent my Friday night rereading the entire thread. I feel like I developed tunnel vision throughout yesterDay (probably because I had less time while there was more going on in the thread) and was missing a lot of what was going on. I also wanted to look at the last two Days in light of Huin’s role and see who actually fits with him and who doesn’t.
I haven’t included everything everyone said or did, just things that stood out to me – and even so this turned out to be the longest WW post I’ve ever written. Sorry Rune.

Lommy
- D1: G55, D2: Mac
- Suspected by Huin both days but not voted by him at any point; Huin’s D1 suspicion becomes polite back and forth about exaggerating trademark behaviours as a cover
- Suspects Huin for fabricated-seeming arguments, Boro for being non-confrontational and not himself, Pitch for grasping at straws, and Lottie, Kit and Rune for vague wrong-way rub (sidenote: if Lommy is a wolf, this would be a good category to lump a fellow in)
- Later flip-flops about Lottie; would prefer not to lynch Lhuna or Rikae or “maybe not Pitch either”
- D2 reminds village that Brinnwagon doesn’t mean Brinn is innocent; then analyses Rikae’s posts and concludes Mac looks worse than Brinn; says if Brinn is innocent Boro looks better and Lottie looks worse; suspects Lottie (wolfy pov) and Mac
- Worried about Huin but says this is probably a thinking style thing and doesn’t think there’s any particular thing that looks suspicious; then later when he’s starting to emerge as a lynch candidate: “Well that would be a Plot Twist but not necessarily a bad one.”
- Nervous about Lhuna’s “parting shot”
- Speculates about a Mac-Lhuna-Greenie pack (I'm actually disappointed we don't have one as this would be epic!); thinks Inzil looks innocent
- Has bad feeling about Huinwagon. Knee-jerk reaction: this makes me feel better about Lommy. A Lomwolf, minutes before deadline with the lynch of a fellow wolf imminent, probably wouldn’t say she has a bad feeling about the bandwagon against him and will look closer at it toMorrow. Or if she did it’s genius.
- Overall impression: could be anything. Early back and forth suspicion with Huin looks just tame enough to be wolf-on-wolf, especially as they seemingly consider voting each other but don’t; also the whole “voting Huinesoron would be a plot twist but not necessarily bad” looks noncommittal enough to fit as well. On the other hand, as noted above, saying she has a bad feeling about the Huinwagon when it’s already established that he’s going to be lynched would be a weird move from a fellow wolf. In terms of interactions with others and general, non-Huin-related things, she has seemed a little jumpier than usual, like in her reaction to Lhuna’s “parting shot” – I read this as completely unrelated to Lommy and found it odd that she jumped on it. But at the same time, her arguments look reasonable and seem like they’re made from an innocent starting point. So I don’t know. (How fitting that I flip-flop on the Queen of Flip-Flops!)

Legate
- D1: Brinn, D2: Huin
- Huin defends him and suggests he was set up in the discussion following the fake vote plan; Legate doesn’t believe he was being set up by Pitch or others, more suspicious of people who brought this up
- D1 red zone Kit , Eonwe, Greenie and Huin; points out Huin’s G55 vote to save Brinn looks like a wolf saving a packmate
- D2 continues Kit discussion by criticising it with a fairly long post; is questioned by Lalaith on why he criticised those who brought this up but still has Kit on his suspect list
- Considers voting Huin, Lottie, or Brinn; first to bring voting Huin to the table
- Overall impression: leaning innocent. He has suspected Huin from D1 and was the first to bring up voting for him on D2. Huin did defend him on D1, and I don’t really get his response to the whole Kit debacle, but his role in the Huin lynch makes it hard to see him as a wolf.

Lottie
- D1: G55, D2: Huin
- Huin calls her ”somewhat suspicious” on D1
- Agrees with Huin’s G55/Pitch wolf pack -theory and later explicitly says she “finds herself agreeing with Huin a lot” – too blatant for packmates? Later says she would prefer to lynch G55 or Pitch over Brinn, and that she still thinks both G55 and Pitch are wolves; Lommy points out she seems very certain about this for D1
- Takes a ”voice of reason” role in argument between Rikae and G55
- D2 says wolves wouldn’t have rushed to save potential ranger – I might have read this wrong though. If I didn’t, this could imply a wish to make Sally look innocent
- D1 flipflops on Brinn; D2 analyses Brinnwagon assuming Brinn is innocent, says it implicates Legate, Rune, and Mac; seems to have dropped suspicion of Pitch though does say “hasn’t ruled out” a Pitchwolf; later elaborates re: Brinn and says the voting patterns looked like wolves picking between two innocents
- Boro points out Lottie and Inzil boxed the D1 vote between G55 and Brinn, and look suspicious regardless of Brinn’s role; Huin also brings up a connection between Lottie and Inzil, and says Lottie only looks suspicious in connection with Inzil. This makes me doubt both Inzil and Lottie are wolves.
- Suspects participants in the Kit discussion, later elaborates on especially suspecting Inzil and adds lesser suspicions of Boro, Mac and Lommy. In a later post seems to forget Lhuna’s part in discussing Kit, admits this and says it’s a likely bias from getting a general innocent vibe of Lhuna from before
- Says she gets sketchy vibe from Huin, not opposed to lynching him; later votes for him.
- Overall impression: leaning innocent. I started off thinking Lottie is playing safe – others have pointed out that she seems to concentrate on topics that are already controversial, and that she seems almost too measured and consistent. Reading through, I do think there’s some merit to this but I have a hard time seeing her as Huin’s packmate; the D1 repeated and explicit agreeing with Huin doesn’t tally with an otherwise measured and careful Lottiewolf. She also votes for him on a “sketchy vibe” though she had previously expressed suspicion of the other potential lynchee (Mac) and so could have easily voted for him without looking like she was trying to save a packmate. (Unless Mac is a wolf too, in which case this wouldn’t matter.)

Pitchwife
- D1: Brinn, D2: Huin
- Was somewhat suspected on D1 but this seemed to mostly evaporate overNight
- Pinned fake vote plan on Legate – this actually looks reasonable on rereading as he specifically criticises Legate’s plan of a pre-DL DL. Huin suspects him for this and for Brinnwagoning both D1 and D2
- Also suspected by Rikae, more directly than I remembered; this could point to another possibility on why Rikae was targeted.
- D1 suspects “pitchwagoners” Rikae, Brinn, Kitanna and Lottie.
- D2 says Rikae kill “may implicate Brinn, except isn’t that almost too obvious?” – I don’t like this pot-stirring tone
- D1 thinks Huin seems innocentish, D2 suspects Huin and votes for him
- Fourth to bring up Kit but criticises Inzil for initiating it
- Overall impression: leaning innocent. Pitch is another Huin-voter so another less likely pairing – especially given Huin’s persistent suspicion of him. Moreover, Huin’s continued focus on “the GLP” (which sounds like a government department btw) throughout D1 and well into D2 would be weird if it implicated a fellow wolf.

Kath
- D1: G55, D2: Inzil
- Another voice of reason -type person; helpful and sensible, which doesn’t say anything about her role. I actually got very little out of Kath though she’s been quite active, and this is somewhat worrying.
- D1 the only thing that stood out to me was that she was very relieved (I think she actually used that word) that Eonwe saw the fake vote plan the same way she did. Not much, but I think Kath/Eonwe is moderately unlikely as a wolf pair.
- D2 suspects and votes for Inzil because of him bringing up and discussing Kit.
- Overall impression: could be anything. Barely interacts with Huin, which could be coincidence (it’s a big village) or could be deliberate.

Lhuna
- D1 Lhuna, D2 Lommy
- D1 uneasy about Brinn, Inzil, Kit, Mac and Boro; still votes herself
- Third to bring up Kit on D2
- Brings up need to analyse G55 voters as well since she was also technically an innocent; thinks Kath looks fishy, Inzil suspiciously bandwagonny, Lottie sincere, Lommy wicked, tricksy, false, Brinn suspicious, speculates about possible Huin/Brinn pair
- Might vote for Lommy, Brinn or Mac; settles on Lommy and makes a comment about bandwagons not starting with the first vote that Lommy and Boro find ominous
- Initial thoughts: could be anything. No interaction with Huin aside from suggesting he could be in cahoots with Brinn for trying to save her on D1 – possibly not something their fellow would want to bring up if true, but then, it had already been suggested by others by that point so in itself tells us very little. I’m not sure where her suspicion of Lommy came from, and not comfortable with her role in discussing Kit.

Inzil
- D1: G55, D2: Mac
- Suspected but not voted for by Huin on both days, chiefly for flying under the radar despite high post count
- D1 trying to decide whether Legate or G55 makes him more uneasy; later says inclined to vote G55
- Doesn’t like Brinnwagon and says he is “always suspicious of sudden bandwagons”
- D2 says Rikae being the first to vote Brinn is significant deciding factor for Night kill as it’s too early for wolves to make a frame kill.
- First to bring up up Kit – either planned wolf move (possibly counting on Kit being lynched if left alone by wolves long enough?) or bad judgment call; later also pushes idea of a Kitwolf
- Boro points out Lottie and Inzil boxed vote between G55 and Brinn, and says they are both suspicious regardless of Brinn’s role; the potential Lottie connection is also brought up by Huin
- Says he could vote for Mac, Brinn or Lottie; says he isn’t at ease with Huin, but wouldn’t vote for him yet; votes Mac because he distrusts Lottie and Pitch – vote placement sketchy considering Huin’s role
- Overall impression: very possible wolf. Vote ideally placed for trying to save Huin, while saying he “isn’t at ease with Huin” works to make it look less like an effort to save a fellow. Meanwhile, Huin suspected him on both days but, like with Lommy, didn’t actually vote for him. Also the poking of Kitanna looks bad.

Boro
- D1: Pitchwife, D2: Mac
- Somewhat noncommittal and weird Day 1, much more engaged Day 2
- D1 fake votes Legate, switches to Pitch for “playing both sides” and sowing suspicion against both G55 and Legate
- D2 started with assuming Brinn is a wolf but then later seems to accept her behaviour as innocentish; possibly the earlier “assuming she is a wolf” was to test how she would react?
- Huin calls him somewhat suspicious on D1 and on D2 Huin gets unarticulated bad vibes and lists him as one of his top suspects
- Says he doesn’t want to lynch Lommy, Huin or Inzil; votes Mac
- Overall impression: could be anything. I’m finding it hard to follow his reasoning in this game. Interactions with Huin could go either way – Huin suspects him but doesn’t do much about it while he says he doesn’t want Huin lynched, all of which isn't incompatible with wolf-on-wolf. My gut feeling says innocent but so far I haven’t seen anything that would prove it.

Lalaith
- D1: no vote, D2: Huin
- D2: says Greenie, Sally & Inzil feel honest, flipflops about Mac, wary of Legate, takes issue with Brinn’s analysis of the Night kill; later suspicious of Legate and thinks Pitch isn’t getting enough attention despite being on Rikae’s list. The point about Pitch is legitimate.
- Votes Huin because trusts Kit, doesn’t like the options as Legate is her top suspect.
- Overall impression: leaning innocent. Voting for a fellow wolf while saying you don’t really want to doesn’t make sense to me. She had mentioned Mac before and could easily have come up with a reason to pick him over Huin (although, as with Lottie, if Mac is a wolf too this doesn't mean anything). Also independent thinking and her reactions to the whole Kit thing seem sensible to me.

Brinniel
- D1: G55, D2: Huin
- Huin first calls her ”somewhat suspicious” on D1 – then later explicitly defends her to the point that he says he votes G55 to save her – this is maybe even too explicit for packmates?
- D1 wary of G55 and Pitch but doesn’t want to be involved in lynching them as fears being manipulated into it by wolves; says she would go for Inzil; says Pitchwife is most suspicious out of GLP but also that she wants to have a look at those building a case against Pitchwife; later says inclined to vote Kit after a reread of her posts
- D2 somewhat paranoid about Rikae kill – though Lommy had good point about Rikae’s suspicion of her not looking like a Seer with a known wolf
- “Slightly worried” about Huin on D2; votes for him because prefers him to Mac as a lynchee
- Overall impression: possible wolf. Huin’s defensiveness of her is an obvious red flag, though so obvious it’s almost implausible. Her vote for him also makes them slightly less likely packmates (though again, Mac's role does impact this). On the other hand, she does seem over-concerned about not being implicated in anything suspicious. Sigh. I’m inclined to look elsewhere toDay just to keep from getting stuck in my old rut again.

Eönwë
- D1: Urwen, D2: Huin
- D1 noticeably careful and diplomatic: points out Lommy, Zil and Brinn are standing in the sidelines of GLP and wouldn’t be surprised if there was a wolf among them; “unsure” about G55 and Boro; doesn’t voice any outright suspicions on D1, votes Urwen which was a very safe place to go
- D2 speculates on possible wolf pairings – suggests Pitch/Boro and if Brinn is a wolf, either Legate or THE Ka as her packmate due to safe-ish wolf-on-wolf vote placing
- Brings up Shasta’s reaction to Kit and even half-heartedly speculates they are wolves together – this looks like a further attempt to distract from Kit’s slip and makes him look better; later when it’s out in the open brings up how this exchange makes Shasta look innocent
- Lists Lommy and Boro under alarm bells, says hasn’t taken Kit off the hook
- Near DL says Mac looks better and doesn’t suspect Lottie, could vote Brinn or Huin; tie-breaker vote for Huin
- Overall impression: likely innocent. His vote broke the tie in favour of lynching Huin (again final judgment on this depends on Mac), and his reactions to Shasta and Kit look like something that an innocent would do but that wouldn’t necessarily occur to a wolf. Not sure why he didn’t take Kit off the hook, though.

Macalaure
- D1: Brinn, D2: Lommy
- D1 doesn’t like GLP gaining momentum
- D2 paranoid about Rikae kill, and has somewhat wolfish thought processes (convenient evolution of his Brinn suspicion on D1, complex theory about G55 and Rikae and wolf ploy to frame him on D2); interestingly, had joking suicidal tendencies already on D1 when he fake voted himself. This makes me feel a bit better about him actually.
- Reaction to being potential lynch fodder more resigned than desperate, acting more normal towards the end of the Day
- D1 Huin repeatedly says he doesn’t see why Mac is suspicious, and seems to think Mac is suspected more than he actually was at that point; meanwhile Mac says Huin seems reasonable. Then on D2 Mac is one of Huin’s top suspects and is voted by him.
- Suspects Greenie and Lommy; later lists Huin under “very bad” along with me, but this is after he had already voted so couldn’t act on it.
- Overall impression: still possible wolf. Huin’s defence of Mac and exaggeration of how much Mac was suspected could be nervous packmate behaviour, but as with Brinn, it’s almost too blatant. Then on D2 they both suspect each other, though Mac suspects Huin only after he has already voted for Lommy. Huin’s vote for Mac doesn’t necessarily tell us much either way, as his own head was on the block by then. Aside from Huin, the paranoid theories about Rikae and Cobbler55 still don’t sit right with me. But again as with Brinn, I’ll try to look elsewhere too today.

Rune
- D1: Brinn, D2: Lottie
- Sensible, to the point, unalarming; goes against the flow
- D1 suspects Kitanna and Eonwe, thinks the case against Brinn has merit; wants to vote Eonwe but decides on Brinn as a self-proclaimed pragmatist.
- Overall impression: gut says innocent, but could be anything. Barely interacts with Huin, again could be coincidence given the size of the village or could be deliberate distancing.

THE Ka
- D1: Brinn, D2: Lottie
- Calm, careful and reasonable, keeps out of arguments
- Suspects Brinn and Lottie for playing it safe on D1; points out Lottie’s overt support of Huin; if Lottie does turn out to be a wolf after all, this makes me feel better about Ka
- D2 is the second to initially point out Kit’s slip, but doesn’t take part in the later discussion about it with Kit herself
- Suspects Lottie for playing safe, polished, too consistent
- Overall impression: could be anything. Barely interacts with Huin. Arguments against Lottie seem solid. I don’t like how she seconded Inzil’s pointing to Kit; though if Inzil turns out to be guilty, this looks better on Ka, because for two wolves to implicate themselves in initially drawing attention to a Gifted this way would be unnecessarily risky.

Sally
- D1: Brinn, D2: Mac
- Not much to go on D1.
- D2 suspects Eonwe, Mac, Lottie and halfheartedly Brinn; Lommy points out her choices are very uncontroversial; wants to vote Lottie or Mac, ends up with Mac because of “better odds”. Sketchy in light of Huin’s role.
- Overall impression: possible wolf. Doesn’t interact with Huin. Not really enough to base a proper analysis on, but the safe suspect choices, combined with a vote that would have been ideally placed to try to save Huin, do make her look pretty suspicious at the moment.

Shasta
- D1: Pitch, D2: Mac
- Psychic about G55 and Rikae; fake votes Lommy (“first real ping”)
- Pretty much the only sensible innocent reaction to Kit (aside from those who didn’t say anything)
- D2 okay to vote Brinn, Mac or Pitch, feels good about Eonwe and Lottie; votes Mac “for the aesthetic”, Huin already a goner by this point
- Overall impression: leaning innocent, mainly on account of a general gut feeling and his attempt to subtly protect Kit. Doesn’t really interact with Huin, and his vote doesn’t mean much since he knew it wouldn’t have changed anything either way.

[THE Ka]

Mais enfin...
That’s not the best of signs to lose a Ranger in the earlier half of the game. On the flip side, I still wonder why Kit was rather honest in the last wee moments of Day 1 to G55’s bluff (unless just hoping that it could be left as a clue to others and hopefully never mentioned again? Yet it does the opposite and then is brought up half way through Day 2 until attempted to be hushed).
I can see the merit in wanting to hint to villagers for keeping you around or swaying opinion to protect yourself, but at the same time that’s a big risk since the wolves are going to see it as well.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

It would be easy for the wolves to sacrifice either one of them to clear the other.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Even if Mac is a wolf too, he was surely the more expendable one out of the two with the amount of suspicion he'd garnered, while Huin had largely slipped unnoticed until the last minute bandwagon.

Possibly when it became clear that Mac was trying too hard, Huey’s flip-flopping became an alternative because others had mentioned it as a possibility? Again, whether Mac is a wolf or innocent, it could have been used by wolves and when it didn’t push as easily one of their own takes the short straw due to leaving too many loose ends or weak arguments.


Still stand by what I said yesterday of pushing Mac right on through, it was just orchestrated too easily and I’d rather throw bumps in the road to examine who protests the most. Will admit that once I had a chance to re-read previous posts, Legate's suspicions on Lottie did stand out to me when I was looking at who could possibly gain the most on the Mac distraction. By the time I posted I knew it was going to be swamped by Mac votes and was preparing for foot stomping that I was being a spoil-sport, however, I didn't see Rune's vote until after since I was writing my vote in a separate window and reading posts backwards. I just assumed afterwards, he read the same as I.

[Macalaure]

This exchange!

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Watch Huey be a wolf.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I hope so, even though it would make me look awful.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Both of us, but yes.

Inzil's first comment might just be an innocent "oh boy, maybe I voted for the wrong person", but Sally's is chock-full of wolfish vote-self-awareness.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Lottie

Of course it's possible that both Mac and Huin were wolves, but I would find it surprising if the wolves were completely unable to produce a single other viable bandwagon to counter two bandwagons on wolves. The Zil bandwagon, for example, could have been encouraged and pushed harder without too much suspicion on the people pushing it. The bandwagon on me probably could've been pushed harder - there were more people interested in voting me, though Legate and Lommy at least voted early. If both Mac and Huin were wolves, I would've expected to see more pressure in those directions, which we just didn't really see.

This is actually a very good point. Unless of course the wolf pack really agreed with Mac's extremely pessimistic view on his chances to survive the Day and decided to bandwagon on him to make themselves look better "when" he'd die. (I'm sorry but I would find this terribly funny. )

Originally Posted by Boro

Oh and well, Evil side has control of the QT vote today as well. It will be interesting to see what vote they give us. Since the vote comes 2 hours before our own DL, with how our DL's go. I'm wondering if we try the "proposed vote" again today...like someone said, "fake vote" just sounds inaccurate. Then see what the evil QT vote gives us.

Unless something unexpected happens, yes. Which by the way makes stuff more interesting, because we will basically get a known wolf vote. They can bluff or double bluff or whatever but they're nonetheless leaving a trace

Also Mac are you trying to butter me up so you wouldn't have to spend another Day defending yourself?


edit xed with Greenie's ooc megapost !! and those after it

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Of the Mac voters, I find Inzil's to be most suspect, as his vote came smack dab in the middle.

It's a given that the votes are scrutinized: that's the best evidence we have.
At that time, I was still fixed on the Rikae-as-possible-Seer idea, and Mac was the only one of their suspects I thought had a shot at being lynched.
Huey was not really on my radar, mainly because it seemed every time I tried to scan one of his posts my brain muttered "what is he talking about?"
I was highly tempted to vote him after I saw Kit, because I was 99% sure she wasn't evil. Then Pitch and Lottie voted for him and I was not going to throw in with people who had been talking about lynching me. Petty, yes. Sorry.

x/d with all since #619

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Also Mac are you trying to butter me up so you wouldn't have to spend another Day defending yourself?

We should limit trips to the grocery store, so I'm not gonna waste that butter. You're still a second-tier suspect for me.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Zil

Watch Huey be a wolf.

Zil, would you like to clarify this?

Because Mac seems to be reading it as "sheesh, I bet since I voted Mac, Huey's gonna be the wolf here"

while I read it as "lol you people who voted Huey, if he's a wolf I'm a horse"

so.... which one was it? Or something else?

[A Little Green]

So looks like that novel of mine basically grouped people into three categories:

Leaning innocent:
Legate
Lottie
Pitch
Lalaith
Eonwe
Shasta

Could be anything:
Lommy
Kath
Lhuna
Boro
Rune
THE Ka

Possible wolf:
Inzil
Brinn
Mac
Sally

I'll just leave that there and go to bed now

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Zil, would you like to clarify this?

Because Mac seems to be reading it as "sheesh, I bet since I voted Mac, Huey's gonna be the wolf here

That's it exactly. Swing-and a-miss.

[Pitchwife]

I need to get up in about seven hours, so it's bedtime now. May have limited time tomorrow due to puppies moving out, but I'll be back a few hours before DL.

Originally Posted by THE Ka

Data is enough of a personally beloved character to know that he was distinctly without contractions.

Which is of course what I meant, but I guess my subconscious stuck the negative in there just to use a contraction.

Originally Posted by Greenie

“the GLP” (which sounds like a government department btw)

I prefer LPG, which was the abbreviation for "Landwirtschaftliche Produktionsgenossenschaft" in the GDR.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Zil, would you like to clarify this?

Because Mac seems to be reading it as "sheesh, I bet since I voted Mac, Huey's gonna be the wolf here"

I think my actual thought was "Did I really misread things that badly? Are Pitch and Lottie really innocent?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, I have been re-reading the votes from yesterDay. I kinda wanted to look at each vote and consider what it would mean if the vote in question always came from a Wolf, how likely it is, and such. (Of course, the reality is more complicated, as there are four Wolves, and we don't know whether Mac isn't one of them. But we deal with what we can. One thing at a time.)

Lommy->Mac - Lommy's vote came early and started a bandwagon for a person who had gained a lot of talk in the village that Day and it was probable he would get votes. If Mac is innocent, then it's a simple matter of Wolf starting a bandwagon against an innocent. If Mac is guilty, it makes Lommy look better, even though even in such a case a Wolfmmy could also have easily hidden her vote for a fellow Wolf among a bandwagon that may not have necessarily succeeded.

Kath->Zil - kind of a similar case (except the bandwagon got no continuation. There certainly was potential for it, however. But for Mac, people like Greenie had been voicing their suspicion and possibility to vote, unlike here).

Lhuna->Lommy - This is interesting but requires already a lot of speculation (entering territory we know little of: everything would depend whether Mac is a Wolf, whether Lommy is a Wolf, etc etc). Could look into it, but as stand-alone, hard to say anything.

Mac->Lommy 2. Kind of a normal retaliation. Of course also possible place for safe Wolf-on-Wolf. But again, a lot would depend on whether yesterDay happened to be bandwagons for two Wolves. I will try to limit this to the "hard data", otherwise we could just as well close shop.

QT->Brinniel. I said something about it yesterDay. It could have easily turned into a bandwagon, the fact that it didn't I take partly on myself, because I considered it and then opted for Hui, which drew other people.

Greenie->Mac 2. Again, see Lommy. Note: she considered Brinniel equally much but opted for Mac (Greenie, why did you choose Mac over Brinn in the end?)

Legate-> Hui and here it starts, from this moment, there is a bandwagon for a known Wolf. It should be noted however that this was, preceded by a lengthy debate - at this point, I assumed at least two other people to vote for Hui as well (interestingly, that was Kit and Lottie, but also Boro who later turned absolutely away from it. Boro, could tell what led you to it?).
I'll actually quote my post there:

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Yeah, that was me. Mac then spoke about it later (another of the posts of his that piqued my interest - for a different reason, mostly because he suddenly was in accord with many of my own thoughts), but he has already cast his vote.

But I may go for it - or Lottie could be another option.

By the way this post of mine crossposted with Lottie who also said she would go for Hui.

Hui->Mac 3. I consider this important because Hui could have picked other ways to save himself (like go for Brinn or push for whatever else was in the air). First thought is of course that Mac is therefore innocent.

Rune->Lottie. Now depending on the context this could be anything: a throwaway, likely though not an attempt to save a packmate (too little momentum already and stronger bandwagons elsewhere). It looks mostly like an innocent going stubbornly after his own.

It swung literally when Kit voted Hui (2)(I didn't realise it at that time, but it totally did). Now we know both their roles, so nothing more to add to this.

Ka->Lottie 2 created the possibility of a bandwagon that never was. One could analyse this vote - but as of now, I don't have the strength. By this point, Lottie was still "leaning towards voting Huinesoron" and Mac was still one vote ahead (so, two would be needed to make Hui lead).

Then Pitch voted Hui (3), and that was the second moment. Pitch's vote, to me, stands as the "clearest" - again provided Mac isn't a Wolf too. Or more like, if all other options weren't wolves, because there would still have been ways to vote somebody third.

Lottie->Hui 4. I was originally rather suspicious about Lottie's vote yesterDay and basically would echo Rune's misgivings about her toDay (her post toDay with the vote list that really looked like she arbitrarily drew the line of "good votes" after herself). But on re-read of the actual voting, the way the voting went makes me feel better about her. She voted Hui after some deliberation. There was some three minute pause between Pitch's and her vote, and it was Lottie who swung the vote towards Hui. Would a Wolf (even if we discount Macwolf possibility) do that? Well, could - to exonerate themselves. A Lothwolf could have fatalistically cast her vote - especially after she's been talking about it as option before - and waited to see what happened. She was also gaining votes herself, so who knows. But it was a very well-placed vote and she had been talking about it before, that's for sure.

Sally->Mac 4. Sally's vote could look possibly the worst alone (again, unless Mac is a Wolf too), she's been steering clear of Hui and raising the bar that allowed Macwagon to make a comeback. But then again: she was following her original suspicion, and obviously no reason to switch to Hui. Also it would be a very blunt action to save a packmate, let's not forget that.

Zil->Mac 5, on the other hand, voted Mac to the lead... "because he distrusted Lottie and Pitch"? I know you mentioned that, but specifically here, what did you mean by it? Again, otherwise, also would be rather blunt action to try to save Hui... But these things are all hard to judge.

Some remarks about voting intentions came in between those that deserve mention.

Brinn said at this point that she had wanted to vote Zil but would rather see Hui lynched over Mac. That leans better - again, unless Mac is also a Wolf.

Eönwë seemed to be waiting and waiting just like the Day before - something I took for potential calculated Wolfism.

Lalaith -> Hui 5 because she trusted Kit - that's kinda straightforward. More importantly, she clearly did so when Mac was in the lead, but also more people (Brinn) were still to vote and it looked like they would go for Hui. It may have been a safe time to seal a packmate's fate and make herself look better. But overall that vote makes me feel better of her.

Boro->Mac 5 - I need to take a look at what Boro said about Hui altogether. His vote for Mac crossed and happened just when Hui was already in the lead, so it didn't change anything. I'm now kinda leaning not to give much meaning to this vote. But I really want to see what he said about Hui.

Eönwë's final vote (for Hui) was kinda inconsequential whichever role he has, could have gone either way. Perhaps as a Wolf he would have been more proactive... but again: this all not considering the option of Macwolf.

Shasta (for Mac, for symmetry) was the same and did nothing. Both him and Steve were in the position to move in, but as Wolves would have had the dilemma: do a blunt "save a fellow" move, or put a nail in his coffin? They opted for neither, in a sense. In any case, they opted for not actively saving him, that's for sure. I'm not going to suspect them just based on this.

Conclusion? Well, there are still unknowns in the whole thing. But this could help looking from some perspectives...

And I basically crossposted with everything, I'm sure, but let's see.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Zil

That's it exactly. Swing-and a-miss.

Ah, thank you for your honesty. Sadly it makes me less convinced of your innocence. See, I was pretty sure late yesterDay that Huin was going to be innocent just because I have never seen a last minute bandwagon of someone not-particularly-much-suspected lead to a wolf lynch, so I thought you were thinking the same (and that's what I assumed in my vote summary post). But okay! In this case, your comment could have been as well wolfy as innocent.

Also:

Originally Posted by Zil

I think my actual thought was "Did I really misread things that badly? Are Pitch and Lottie really innocent?

Is there a reason you have been so fixated on those two in this game?


edit: xed with Legate

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Zil->Mac 5, on the other hand, voted Mac to the lead... "because he distrusted Lottie and Pitch"? I know you mentioned that, but specifically here, what did you mean by it? Again, otherwise, also would be rather blunt action to try to save Hui... But these things are all hard to judge.

Both had been suspecting me a good portion of the Day, and it appeared they were feeding off one another. I simply didn't want to vote the same way they did.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Also:
Is there a reason you have been so fixated on those two in this game?

It goes back to Rikae's "suspects".

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Few haphazard things before I go to bed...

Originally Posted by THE Ka

That’s not the best of signs to lose a Ranger in the earlier half of the game. On the flip side, I still wonder why Kit was rather honest in the last wee moments of Day 1 to G55’s bluff (unless just hoping that it could be left as a clue to others and hopefully never mentioned again? Yet it does the opposite and then is brought up half way through Day 2 until attempted to be hushed).
I can see the merit in wanting to hint to villagers for keeping you around or swaying opinion to protect yourself, but at the same time that’s a big risk since the wolves are going to see it as well.

I think that's what it was - a very unfortunate momentary reaction. Had she had time to process it, things might have been different. That's why I still kinda wished it had not been discussed, because especially after her survival, there may have been a chance to play it out to leave the Wolves uncertain. (Likely not, but anyway.)

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Oh and well, Evil side has control of the QT vote today as well. It will be interesting to see what vote they give us. Since the vote comes 2 hours before our own DL, with how our DL's go. I'm wondering if we try the "proposed vote" again today...like someone said, "fake vote" just sounds inaccurate. Then see what the evil QT vote gives us.

Yeah, let's keep that in mind. But actually, especially with the Evil QT, I am again (just like yesterDay with the Cobbler there) against any such vote. Because what use is it now? Only to tell the Evil QT what we are likely to do. Nopes. WWs would use it to signal the QT. Nopes. Anyone who does so goes into my suspect book. (Starting from you right now, *ping*(TM).)

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Seriously? Logically, the only thing she could have been, other than the ranger, was the seer. Yesterday, I repeatedly asked people who doubted her innocence for justification and got none.

Note: not true, as I answered to you yesterDay, you can look it up. (Plus see what I said now to Ka).

Bruh. Off to sleep and hopefully come in full strength with fresh braaains later.

[THE Ka]

Originally Posted by Legate

Because what use is it now? Only to tell the Evil QT what we are likely to do. Nopes. WWs would use it to signal the QT. Nopes.

Going to have to agree. It's up the same stream as gifted trying to leave clues or knee jerk attempts to save by villagers, no matter how tempting and ideal, it's going to be used by wolves too.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Inzil's first comment might just be an innocent "oh boy, maybe I voted for the wrong person", but Sally's is chock-full of wolfish vote-self-awareness.

More like I was hoping for the best outcome regardless of the consequences I knew it would have for me. Dun and I are saying the same thing, but I'm being more open about the way it looks. You're being overly paranoid again, big bad Mac.

I can't find the other thing I meant to quote right now. Bother.

But to briefly address the idea that I might have voted Mac to save a wolf Hui, I actually have a rather cutthroat track record as a wolf, so if you don't believe I would happily sacrifice one of my own to win the game, please ask anyone who's been in a pack with me.


x'd with Legate and Ka

[Boromir88]

4 wolves 13 innocents. Man it's exciting but there's still A LOT of people

Ok Huey...what do we know? I believe 2nd game (?) New wolf. Likes to be active/involved. I did not sense any nerves in his responses when he was suspected. In hindsight, I'd say what got him in trouble is his non-committal attitude in forming suspicions.

We're, what, three and a bit hours from deadline? There's been a few other suspicions around, but I haven't seen anyone (Besides maybe you, but see below) strike more than one or two people as dodgy other than on general feel. The GLP has kind of drowned the rest out; I think the best evidence we have on everyone else might actually be their reactions to it all? I'll try and have a look later.

On Day 1 that was a reply he had towards Mac. Bolded part for my emphasis. It's like the names he's putting out there are to gauge and see who else follows and therefor he can have a case for having previously/initially started a suspicion on someone if they get lynched. (I hope that makes sense).

There's a lot of suspicion on Brinn in the last few posts (I see Rikae, Pitch, and Loslote), which seems to have come a bit out of nowhere. Did it build over the course of page 4? Ah, looks like it did, including G55's comment that Brinn 'seems to post without leaving any impression'. That tallies with what I'm getting, but I've not gotten any impression that she's up to something.

He establishes a reason for not wanting to join in a Brinn-wagon. Speaking of which, reminds me from Rikae's final post:

So, just putting this here because I think this could be important later. This Brinn-wagon everyone's talking about is two votes at this point, mine and Pitch's.

And the people who expressed concern about it are Huey, Lottie and Inzil, in that order (let me know if I missed someone).

His vote for G55 was to "avoid Brinn being last-minute wagonned." Interesting choice there. Darn I should have picked that up.

The tally right now is is 4 Brinn, 3 Pitch, 5 G55. To avoid Brinn being last-minute wagonned, my best shot is to go:

++GALADRIEL55

hS

"I'm voting G55 because I'm suspicious of her/think she's a wolf/..etc" = innocent.

"I'm voting G55 to avoid Brinn getting lynched" = wolf having trouble trying to create fake suspicions. So his reasoning isn't based on faked suspicions, but on what he KNOWS. Brinn is innocent.

Day 2 has been examined quite a bit. I don't want to go posting a bunch of quotes. In general this post of suspects. #429

A lot of trying to establish that he had previous suspicions against these people and therefor offering up some names to defend his vote when he makes it. Plus that post where I think he questioned Zil and Lottie's high post count and just for that moved Zil up to "probable wolf."

What can we tell by the wolf-pack's kills so far? As Rune commented after Rikae's death it looks like an unadventurous/boring pack. After Kit being killed, I'm agreeing with that assessment. A bolder and risk-taking pack may have let Kit live, risked having her stop their kill, but have the village wondering how the heck is the "revealed" Ranger still alive? There's still a lot of people here, and Ranger could not self-protect so a bolder pack might have tried to get us to lynch our ranger by keeping her alive.

That's not what we have though. I can imagine a bold pack with Mac going paranoid and his mates busing him. But can I see that ploy between Mac and Huey, no doesn't feel like that. We have a wolf pack that made 2 safe kills, which suggests they're trying to play it safe in the day and not do a bunch of crazy wolf-on-wolf.

I suppose now that I said this we're going to get wolves busing each other.

I'm assuming this post has crossed with a lot.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I think that's what it was - a very unfortunate momentary reaction. Had she had time to process it, things might have been different. That's why I still kinda wished it had not been discussed, because especially after her survival, there may have been a chance to play it out to leave the Wolves uncertain. (Likely not, but anyway.)

It could have been left alone, but I still say it needed to be addressed. In my mind there was no possibility five wolves had all failed to notice it. I was playing with the idea that it had been done by a very bold Kitwolf, just to confuse. Highly unlikely, but not impossible. I was amazed that she was still with us the next Day.
The only thing I can figure is that they were thinking we might be so confused by Kit we might, for lack of a better option, lynch her to be on the safe side. If so, that's pretty brazen.

x/d with all since Legate