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12-04-2012, 01:20 AM | #601 | ||||||
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Morsul and Nerwen
Day 1
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Again, there is the possibility of packmates suspecting each other, but not too much. If Morsul is evil, Nerwen could've chosen to suspect him to distance herself from him, but attributed his suspiciousness to his typical playing style as a valid reason not to actually vote for him. If Morsul is innocent, Nerwen could've been building up suspicion and perhaps was using the "we may have to lynch him eventually just to see what he is" comment to pave the way for an easy lynch further down the road.
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12-04-2012, 01:23 AM | #602 |
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Manwe and Nerwen
Unless I missed something, Manwe and Nerwen never really share opinions of one another. Which tells us absolutely nothing.
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12-04-2012, 06:33 AM | #603 | |
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Actually clarification here please moddess if the gifted is in the four unknowns and one is eliminated can Erendil send her dream to one of the others because Erendil can safely assume the other two unknowns are KM, just have to pass that knowledge onto the rest of the group.
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12-04-2012, 06:41 AM | #604 | |
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12-04-2012, 09:16 AM | #605 | ||
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12-04-2012, 09:21 AM | #606 |
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Indeed. When thinking about potential packs, Steve is involved in both of my more probable packs - either Steve and Morsul or Steve and Manwe. The pack without him I find far less probable (Morsul and Manwe). I'd prefer to lynch Steve toDay, and decide between Morsul and Manwe toMorrow (Elendil, help us out on that one?).
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12-04-2012, 10:06 AM | #607 | |||
Shade of Carn Dûm
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12-04-2012, 11:35 AM | #608 | ||
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Anyway, back now. Doing a readthrough on the other two...
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12-04-2012, 11:48 AM | #609 |
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I'm still trying to work out if Morsul's "lynch me" plan was the work of a misguided ordo or the result of brazen wolvery. Wouldn't it be funny if he and Lottie were the last two KMs, given a pass for throwing themselves under the bus?
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12-04-2012, 12:32 PM | #610 | ||||||||||
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MORSUL
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At the end of Day 1 he declares Nerwen suspicious and Steve fishy and votes for Sally for attempting to bandwagon him. Quote:
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A little later he fans suspicion of Nerwen, talking about how her play was a bit too clean, which is perfectly true. Later he actually seems to find Sally more innocent because her suspicions of him seem fine. Then he posts again saying she's even more innocent after she really goes after him. Is he trying to pacify her? Then he starts taking a more serious look at Pom. He doesn't like her because she tossed suspicion of himself aside too easily (*head scratch*) and because she suspected Brin before she became proven. Then in explaining his suspicion further- Quote:
And in the end he votes for Pom based on this. (His vote is the first for Pom.) This is how Morsul enters Day 3- Quote:
Now this is quite well done. His comment about being a lynch target is true and he was progressing naturally from his stance the previous day, but perhaps it's just a little too perfect? He says Nerwen is certainly evil, which is true, but of course he votes for the one that isn't evil. And just to theorize, if Lottie is a KM and received her Nerwen dream in the middle of the night, they would've had ample time to hatch a grand plan in which she throws Nerwen under the bus, and knowing what was coming later Morsul had to be sure and vote nice and early. That way if people questioned Lottie and the lynch didn't go towards Nerwen that would set up Sally as the alternate candidate? Not well conceived exactly, but just a crazy idea. But then of course he seems to accept Lottie fairly quickly, thus his Sally vote quickly becomes worthless. He then likes the idea about Elendil sending a dream about Lottie rather than to her. If she's his partner that seems to sabotage things. Then he asks if he can retract his vote. (It seems he regretted his Sally vote?) Then coming in today he seems dead set on tossing out Lottie as an innocent, and suggests we just go ahead and lynch him, which is just a bit insane but I get how his numbers game works. But frankly the odds are the same no matter what we do so we may as well attempt to lynch a KM rather than have an innocent throw himself under the bus. He believes that Manwe and Eonwe are the KMs. CONCLUSION: His guilt seems to rely on how cut-throat the KMs were playing things. Nerwen looks prepared to throw him under the bus, Manwe attempts to start a lynch his way, and he's maintained suspicion of Nerwen and Steve through most of the game. So, if the KMs are trying to be somewhat careful then Morsul seems a poor statistical lynch choice as he has too many negative ties to potential packmates.
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12-04-2012, 01:04 PM | #611 | ||
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LOTTIE
Lottie voices suspicion of Steve fairly early on Day 1. Later on she's a bit suspicious of Boro as well. In the end she goes with the gut and gives Steve his second vote, putting him in the lead. Quote:
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Later on Day 2 she lists Morsul, Steve, and Inzil on her suspect list. She then thinks Sally seems innocent. A bit later she states that Morsul doesn't look so good to her but she's worried it wouldn't tell us much if he's innocent. She then places Steve and Pom as the best candidates and says she prefers Steve. Towards the end she suspects that if Sally is a KM so is Inzil, and she votes for Sally. A couple possibilities here- either she's innocent and following one of the Provens just in case they're onto something, or she's a KM and sees that the lynch will be innocent either way and so sides with a Proven on a bandwagon less likely to win out. Then of course comes Day 3 where she reveals an accurate dream. Could she have done anything different in her situation? But her instinct for withholding the name seems to be a good one. It was either fine planning or she's innocent. And she also seems genuinely cheerful about lynching a KM and what our population set up will be the next day. CONCLUSION: After all the read-throughs the Lottie-Steve pairing seems increasingly unlikely unless they are playing rather oddly. Morsul-Lottie is still possible but slightly less likely after the read-through. Her behavior was quite innocent yesterday, meaning either she had lots of time to plan out a grand end-game, or that she's genuine. In light of the successful delivery I figure we may as well write her down as "Innocent" and hope we're not wrong. It's tough to see a scenario under which she gets lynched.
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12-04-2012, 01:06 PM | #612 |
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So, since I didn't get a dream and no-one else seems to have claimed one, I think it's clear that we're left with only Elendil if Lottie was telling the truth (though even if that is the case, it says nothing of her innocence).
Looks like I'm going to get a chance to do a Nerwen-post after all, though obviously she's not the focus this time.
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12-04-2012, 02:44 PM | #613 |
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Just a brief thought based on my read-throughs-
With the Lottie-Steve pairing not so likely and the Morsul-Manwe pairing also not a great likelihood, Steve seems the best lynch option operating on an assumption of Lottie's innocence, as he could be paired with either of the two others. Manwe would be the lynch pick to make if Morsul is felt to be innocent. So yes, I very much imagine that it's going to come down to those two. So... Given that I've gone over all of your posts with a fine-tooth comb and found zilch in the way of Elendil hints, that leaves open the possibility that one of you is Anarion thus you can prove that Lottie is lying. It was intelligent of Inzil to hide his information yesterday, as if it was of Sally then he would be able to help out Anarion in a reveal by finally admitting that Sally was his info. So, can either of you confirm that you are Anarion thus Lottie is lying?
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12-04-2012, 03:13 PM | #614 |
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I do agree that Eonwe is our best lynch option for toDay. While Morsul has the most suspicious behavior, I think there is a good possibility he might be an innocent that the baddies have set up for an easy lynch. Of the three I looked at, Eonwe seems the most likely to be packmates with Nerwen.
If we're wrong and Eonwe happens to turn up innocent, at least his death should be able to tell us more compared to others.
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12-04-2012, 03:19 PM | #615 |
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Morsul's always a tough call for me, due to what others and he himself have noted: his playing style tends to make him look suspicious, regardless of alignment. It's a situation with which I have some experience.
Mänwe here is reminding me of McCaber. You can point to some off-looking things, but it isn't quite enough to give the radar a definite ping.
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12-04-2012, 04:00 PM | #616 | |||||||||||||||||
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Sorry, I got taken away by RL stuff.
Nerwen's interactions Quote:
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Then there's the Lottie-dream: Quote:
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It seems unlikely to me that Nerwen would treat her two fellows in the same way, so I'd assume that she kept a low profile with one (i.e. Manwe) and a high-profile with the other (i.e. Lottie or Morsul). I'm currently leaning towards Manwe and Lottie, with Morsul being the fall-back lynch. This fits quite well with her dislike (#283 and #313) of phantom's list. Quote:
Next, I think I need to look at how the others deal with her (and then just at them in general).
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12-04-2012, 04:04 PM | #617 |
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If anarion is the gifted still alive I know this is obvious vut, protect one of the known innocents the KM wouldn't attack one of us 4 unknowns would narrow them down and take what little cover they have.
I'm fine with lynching steve like I said I think it's Manwe Steve I still want to go through Lottie's posts. Phantom was quite thorough.
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12-04-2012, 04:41 PM | #618 | |
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remind me to ask Sally in post game if this was a typo or hint... I didn't catch this first time round don't know if anyone else noticed it... Sorry rereading Lottie happened to notice. Maybe hindsight...20.20 thing
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12-04-2012, 07:13 PM | #619 |
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It's been quiet for too long. Might as well get the ball rolling. From what I can tell, we've come to pretty clear consensus in favor of (or, well, in favor of lynching) Steve. Correct?
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12-04-2012, 07:15 PM | #620 |
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I was about to say the same thing. I was interested to see if Steve would make any effort to defend himself.
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12-04-2012, 07:27 PM | #621 | |
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12-04-2012, 07:34 PM | #622 |
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I'll be back before DL to vote but I'm out for a bit. See if Steve can make a compelling argument(That would meanLottie Manwe, I'd be surprised
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12-04-2012, 07:52 PM | #623 |
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Before I go,
Nerwen's vote for Lottie. If Lottie is evil it would have accomplished nothing except confirming Nerwen's guilt and therefore could be ignored However what if Lottie Is a KM and Nerwen was deflecting attention away from her by using the above logic against us? Or Lottie is innocent and Nerwen was playing an awful mind game. I'm still fairly certain Lottie is innocent but that vote bugs me more than it should maybe.
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12-04-2012, 07:55 PM | #624 |
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In what way? There aren't really any suspicions I can defend myself against. And if you really think my death will tell you a lot, then maybe it's worth it for the village.
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12-04-2012, 08:28 PM | #626 | |
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The only claims they make are based on interpretation of certain events, so there's not really any proof as such either way.
In Brinn's post, I don't know why Nerwen voted Pom over me. I don't see how I can address that. As for the last part, I already explained my process of elimation at the time: Quote:
In Phantom's post, the only thing I can address is why I ended up voting after the deadline. I didn't mean to, obviously, but since there were quite a few people who seemed to suspect "x and steve", I thought it would be best to wait. I couldn't bring myself to vote Sally, after my analysis of her found her innocent, so I voted for my top suspect at the time, you.
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12-04-2012, 08:58 PM | #627 |
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Also, answer this: If Sally wasn't a known innocent, why did she get killed? Now we have 4 unknowns with two KMs. Hardly an optimal situation for them. My suggestion is that since everyone seemed to trust Sally yesterDay, she became a sort of pseudo-known, and as we know, Elendil (if he's alive) really did put his trust in her, as would be expected. But if it had gone through, I find it highly likely that Lottie would have been the target, so as to restart a new chain. Of course, it only works if the KMs suspect that there still is an Elendil, but as phantom has been saying, it often pays for them to be paranoid on that front.
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12-04-2012, 09:00 PM | #628 |
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I didny realize I wouldn't be home in time for DL using wife's phone don't know how to use it so can't make brackets So ill make this proper at home but for now
vote eonwe vote Please pardon typos
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12-04-2012, 09:02 PM | #629 | |
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This is the first vote toDay, right?
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12-04-2012, 09:03 PM | #630 |
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Okay, so here's what it comes down to-
Frankly Lottie and Morsul both have more strikes against them, but the thing is it's because they've thrown themselves out there a bit more. I can say a greater number of both positive and negative things about them. Manwe and Steve seem more non-committal, and I wonder if that's a sign of evil or if it's a hint of disinterest from someone with no role. Their votes seem pretty safe and they both missed one, so strictly on principle (in terms of enforcing the Barrow-Downs gaming standard) they would be the obvious targets, as I'm more content to let a Baddie win if they're noisy and running bold bluffs. Anyway, the fact that they also seem slightly detached today with their necks on the line... I mean wouldn't an Ordo in danger of being lynched and losing be a bit more... Morsul-ish? Anyway, less than 30 minutes to vote, and we don't want to wait until the very final minute. So guys- last chance. Make accusations. Toss out theories. Make pleas. Whatever you're going to do, this is it.
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12-04-2012, 09:06 PM | #631 |
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Eonwe- are you saying that the only reason Sally would've died is if Lottie is a KM due to the likelihood of Elendil continuing down the chain? (Just trying to see clearly what you're getting at. But of course if Lottie is a KM she could've made up the whole Elendil thing...)
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12-04-2012, 09:09 PM | #632 | |
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Quote:
edit: fixed wording
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12-04-2012, 09:15 PM | #633 |
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Lottie gave us Nerwen, so to me that alone gives her more of an innocent feel than the others.
Morsul, if he is a KM, has been very reckless. Could it have been with calculation, hoping everyone would say "That's just Morsul"? Yes. Could he be his usual "suspicious innocent" self? Yes. Mänwe really is a blank to me, and that's worrisome. I haven't really played with him enough to know his "normal" style, so I'm having to focus on the mere fact that he's really been the grey man here, easy to forget. That's a great ploy for a baddie. And Steve. The suspicions against him could indeed be explained in a way to make him look innocent. Then again, it seems to me that he just hasn't been as sharp and probing as I'm used to. I think I'm still ready to make him the choice for toDay, but I'd like to see what others think. x/d with tp and Steve
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12-04-2012, 09:17 PM | #634 |
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If we tie the vote we can actually survive both today and tomorrow, thus giving Elendil 2 opportunities to dream. He could send a dream of Lottie to Morsul then send Morsul to Steve or something like that. Would that be beneficial?
Meh.... Probably not. And I don't really have the time to explore all the angles on it. Ugh. Wish I wouldn't have had to be gone so long today...
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12-04-2012, 09:18 PM | #635 | |
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12-04-2012, 09:19 PM | #636 |
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Manwe's only made TWO posts today. On the day of days!
Is he a KM that has given up? Surely as an innocent he would be more helpful, feeling an obligation to his other innocents, right?
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12-04-2012, 09:20 PM | #637 |
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Or is it vice-versa? Would a KM not have had more of an incentive to help his fellow? *sigh*
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12-04-2012, 09:21 PM | #638 |
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Eonwe may figure that if he's getting lynched anyway, there's no point in defending himself. But if he is evil, I wonder if his casual attitude about it could indicate that he thinks the final baddie will not get lynched before the game ends.
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12-04-2012, 09:22 PM | #639 |
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Oddly enough, Nerwen put up even less of a fight.
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12-04-2012, 09:22 PM | #640 | |
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