WW: LXXXV - The Lost Philosophers of Maiar

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I'm under the impression Nessa isn't exactly a newbie.

I believe this is just her, like, third game or something?

Originally Posted by Agan

What's your explanation for Rikae & Mac voting for their cobbler yesterday when there were more convenient lynch candidates?

Well, maybe they thought he won't be going, or did not know, or did not care so much for lynching the Cobbler.

But I am really having contradictory thoughts about both of them. Right now thinking actually better of Rikae because of her voting, though generally I would consider her more suspicious by her posting. Mac, on the other hand, has - or had - rather sensible posting and all, but lately I am wondering if he has not been misleading us all the time. This is just giving me a headache.

Originally Posted by Agan

Speaking of which... I asked you something, Legate. I'd like to get an answer/clarification.

Yes, I didn't have time to answer it yesterDay. But actually not sure what you mean by it. You didn't say you are a Wolf, you said that you are innocent because you wouldn't kill Ozban. And that's what I think, so I said yes, that's one of the main reasons why I am not suspecting you (among several others, of course).

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Now a sort of general summary:

More like innocent
Aganzir
Rikae
Greenie
Skip
Mänwe

More like suspicious
LRH

More like Cobbler
Boro

No idea or not sure
wilwa
Nessa

More like suspicious, though I don't have much of an idea
Pitchwife
Cailín
(I am really worried about these two and would like to see them POSTING!)

Can be either a Wolf or innocent (brilliant idea, isn't it)
Mac
Shasta

The point with the last two basically is: I give myself the question "there has been somebody fooling us all the time. Now, who was it." These two are in some way suspicious, but in some way I think that perhaps I am just suggesting something to myself. With Shasta, I am waiting for him to post (see my early posts toDay). With Mac, I just don't know.

[wilwarin538]

I agree that we would be best to leave Nessa alone for now. It really feels like a set-up on the part of the wolves, and I don't want to walk in to that. Even if she actually was a wolf, there are still 3 others that we could get instead. I just think Nessa is a bit of a risk.

Boro could be the Cobbler, he's likely not Gifted or a Wolf because he would be far more helpful. Perhaps he's a bored ordo? But I don't remember Boro ever acting that way as an Ordo. So yes, Cobbler seems the most likely. And according to Agan's math (Math?!? she must be a wolf! ) lynching the Cobbler does no good, so we leave him be.

Originally Posted by Agan

What's your explanation for Rikae & Mac voting for their cobbler yesterday when there were more convenient lynch candidates?

That's asuming the Wolves know who their Cobbler is. Though I do believe the Cobbler likely sent in their own name the first Night, there is a chance they didn't, or that the Wolves didn't realise that's what they were doing. We can't totally assume the Wolves know their Cobbler (and hope that they don't).

I'm going to go make my own list, try to figure out how I feel about everyone (I already know that there will be quite a few I'm unsure of, partly because I haven't been around enough, and partly cause there are a few who also haven't been around enough)

x'ed with 1 Legate

[A Little Green]

Elra - Her votes are rather bandwagonish, like I said before, even their reasons are often either directly or indirectly relying on arguments made by others. Her phrasings look somewhat fishy and her votes are easy. I'm not convinced though, she says it's her style, and I'm not sure a wolf would be going with the flow so blatantly.

Macalaure - His "apart from what I said before" in reasoning his Lottie vote on Day 2 is interesting. He does say that her vote the Day before was "not good", but after that he lists her as "not really suspicious, but not really innocent either". An innocent can have their opinion change and forget that he didn't actually say it anywhere in the thread. However, I could also see a Macwolf trying to make his vote look like it was grounded on some earlier suspicion that doesn't seem to be there after all. I'd like some thoughts on this one, I'm puzzled. Boro does look cobblerish, which would speak against Mac being a wolf. His vote for Boro out of the blue yesterDay would be a foolish move if he was a wolf and Boro the cobbler.

Shasta - Has only voted for known innocents this far. (That applies to myself as well though, so I'm not the one to start suspecting him for that alone.) He's an enigma to me at the moment, I'd like to look through his posts at some point. I'd like to know, though, if it was a consistent suspicion or simple coincidence that made him vote Lottie twice but with different reasons.

Wilwa - Also has voted for only known innocents this far. Her Day 1 vote for Sally makes me think her innocent, she voted Sally for supposedly leaving a cobbler hint. Sally's post did look like one, which makes me inclined to think a wolf would not have wanted to lynch Sally. Wilwa was the first to vote Sally, and seemed to take the whole issue rather seriously, not talking openly about it at first in hopes of the wolves missing the hint. She also gave more elaborate reasons for voting Inzil than most others.

Nessa - She has voted very independently. I'm not sure of the soundness of her arguments against Rikae, and would love to hear why she voted Legate. Could be a wolf distancing herself from the lynches, could be independent-minded innocent.

Pitchwife - Has only voted for the two "enigmas" Nessa and Inzil, and the votes are always placed 3rd or 4th (which might also have to do with time issues). If both Inzil and Nessa were set up by the wolves to distract the village, Pitch looks pretty bad. If Nessa is a wolf, Pitch likely isn't - bandwagoning against a fellow in danger twice in a row would be foolish, considering how big an advantage the pack gets from being all together.

Rikae - The retraction on Day 2 would have been a pointless move for a wolf (which, if she is a wolf, would be precisely why she did it). The same thing as with Mac though: if Boro is indeed the cobbler, she is likely not a wolf.

Boro - Possible cobbler. I have a hard time seeing him as a wolf, he seems too uninvolved and too disinclined to manipulate. Could be bored ordo as well, but then, I remember Borordos who have been really involved and in the middle of things.

Skip - Has a track record of easy votes. Day 1 he votes Sally on an "icky feeling", Day 2 Elra for being a submarine, Day 3 Nessa. I'm still of the opinion that a wolf would not have wanted to lynch Sally on Day 1 unless they missed the hint that wasn't a hint. Other than that, Skip doesn't look too good to me.

Mänwe - There's still a bit too little to go on here to say anything for sure.

Legate - He has this miserable air of always ending up voting Nessa against his will. If Nessa is a wolf, I doubt Legate is one, because it would seem foolish that in tight voting situations he would end up voting a fellow wolf by elimination method. He's giving me good vibes in general right now.

Aganzir - Her votes look fishy by themselves, but taking into account her reasons for them they look a lot better I think. And the Sally thing is also true of Agan, who sealed Sally's fate with her vote. Also, I wonder - she made quite a show of dropping cobbler hints on Day 1, and then gets really upset when Sally does the same. Leaning innocent.

Cailín - Looks fishy. Her votes are no more bandwagonish than, say, Agan's, but her reasons behind them look fabricated to me. I'll be going through her posts toDay.


EDIT: x-ed with two Legs and a Butterfly

[wilwarin538]

So mostly on feeling, or just on their tone. I'll take a closer look at the people in my last two categories, to get a stronger feeling, when I get back.

Think are probably fine
Nessa
Greenie
Skip
Agan

Haven't the slightest
Mac & Rikae (putting them here because I want to trust them, but am now paranoid that one of them is being sneaky)
Pitch
Legate (again, want to trust, but not sure)
Cailin

Feel off
e_d
Shasta
Boro (though I'm leaning Cobbler)
Manwe (this might sound weird, but it's because he doesn't post much, but posts as if he's contributing a lot...I hope that makes sense)

x'ed with Greenie

[Pitchwife]

Present and reading to catch up.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by skip spence

Edit: Guess that Boro as the cobbler makes sense. If he is, do we let him get away with that?

Are you suggesting lynching a cobbler would be a good idea at this point?

I voted Boro because I thought he might be a seer-dreamed wolf. Legate, you should know better than to ask why an innocent would be so mysterious, and the fact that you ask makes me more distrustful of you.

As for Mac and I being more wolvish if Boro is the cobbler, that makes no sense at all, since the whole theory rests on us trying to lynch our cobbler knowingly and yet you're trying to explain it as voting for him unknowingly. There is a theory that collapses on itself. I suppose Boro as an alternative bandwagon because we didn't want to dirty our hands with the Inzil lynch would make sense, but for two wolves to vote on each others' heels like that merely to have an alternative wagon seems silly. Sure, I might. I might do anything. You're just going to have to live with that.
It doesn't make a whole lot of sense, though.

Boro, since you think lynching Nessa toDay is so important, can you give us your reasons?

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Anyway, I never said that voting or suspecting Nessa is worse. That's your addition, and it doesn't make me feel better one bit.

Actually you're probably right. When I skimmed your analysis earlier I got the impression that you deducted more points from those who voted or suspected Nessa than those who voted or suspected Inzil which made me draw that conclusion. Now looking at it again I see it is now quite so, at least not in a conspicuous way.

Still that analysis of yours makes me wary. As far as I know voting Nessa might have a good vote. Yes it certainly seems like the wolves are offering her of a plate for us - and I agree that is the most likely scenario - but Nessa might also be a wolf, let's not forget that. Your analysis treats her as an innocent.

If we assume that Boro is the cobbler, a Mac-wolf's vote for Boro-cobbler (whom he probably knows the identity of) also makes sense to me, given that his long analysis is built on the Inzil/Nessa trail as an obvious set-up, and that he is casting suspicion on just about everyone who's partaken in it, and by implication making it a moral high-ground to stay away from it. He wouldn't have thought Boro would go end up lynched anyway I think, and if an accident were to happen, that wouldn't have been that bad for team-evil anyway. Hardly a problem at all in fact, given Agan's maths.

No, I'm not very happy about Mac. However, I feel I'm also reeling myself up. I should be around for most of the rest of the Day. Will step back and do some serious reading before drawing any serious conclusions.

Also, nice work with the vote-summaries Greenie!

Edit: x'ed with a few

(not saying that makes her look better, mind you, she is also one who we should have a closer look at)

[Nessa Telrunya]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Oh, just remembered to ask this: Nessa, what were your reasons for voting Legate yesterDay?


EDIT: x-ed with Legs

Something about the phrasing is starting to set off those little mental alarms I have. After the Night kills, Legate sounds astoundingly like a gloating wolf. Also, with my Rikae suspicion waning, the obvious candidates would have been the major bandwagons(Inzil) but I can't in good conscience vote in the middle of a bandwagon. I've found that mostly they rely on popular opinion rather than solid evidence, and it's too easy to get sucked in without really thinking about what you're doing. And since I didn't want to vote otherwise, I figured I may as well go with my suspicion of Legate, and get a new name out for consideration.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I voted Boro because I thought he might be a seer-dreamed wolf. Legate, you should know better than to ask why an innocent would be so mysterious, and the fact that you ask makes me more distrustful of you.

If you think what I think you think, then let me basically say that I see no reason for the innocents not to speak plainly, because the WWs know as much as the innocents do anyway, and why I have been wondering is because what you said could have been a hint to a cobbler for all I know. Anyway, let's not speak of this further, I agree, but see my previous sentence (unless you have something totally different in mind. I'd just want to know, once the matter is settled, what it was).

EDIT: xed with skip and Nessa

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Are you suggesting lynching a cobbler would be a good idea at this point?

At the time I didn't have time to think it though, so it was an honest question ie "should we?" Seeing Agan's maths I think it wouldn't be a very good idea no.

And regarding your criticism of Legate, those little tricks you do Rikae, they are not very subtle, are they? If you are innocent, the wolves can plainly see them unless they are incompetent which I very much doubt. It certainly seems like something an innocent, possibly gifted, would try rather than a wolf, and I've seen you as a likely innocent because of this, but you would know this well also.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

I can't in good conscience vote in the middle of a bandwagon. I've found that mostly they rely on popular opinion rather than solid evidence, and it's too easy to get sucked in without really thinking about what you're doing. And since I didn't want to vote otherwise, I figured I may as well go with my suspicion of Legate, and get a new name out for consideration.

You know, it's hard to lynch anyone without a bandwagon.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Manwe

#213 - Mentions that he'd like to see more from anyone with three or less posts, which is funny, because this is his first post of the game. Specifically mentions Cailin, BG, Greenie, and Elronhubbard. Of these, Cailin is "accountable, just" and the rest are "unaccountable".

#331 - Defends the quieter folk, here -

Originally Posted by Manwe

Quieter folk are the easiest to tarnish with the same brush and leave the greater possibility for a judgement error on behalf of their would be jurors. Although I would concede the more quiet the less likely you are to say something that'll give you away. But this reminds me of something Rikae mentioned that irked me a little

I don't see how some of the most talkative ones can be considered more helpful due to the possibility that every word they say is designed to mislead or indeed because they write so long a post people don't want to read it

Quiet can't be so black or white, for in those names that Legate mentioned there are those who have made the odd post, and those that have popped in to vote; two very different quiet "strategies" if you will...elronds_daughter being case in point with two very wild votes.

...which seems odd to me, considering his only previous post calls out the quiet ones.

He also asks Legate to clarify a question regarding Kath/Ozban and Greenie not wanting to vote either one.

#343 - Notes Rikae' clarifcation about the point he mentioned not liking earlier.

#428 - Asks if playstyles really don't change that much from game to game. Won't vote for Boro. Wishes he were the Seer [?]. Will vote for an 'extreme' because a wolf hides there. Votes Elronhubbard. Makes a point of saying that she's 'one he has mentioned in his posts' as if he's defending his vote before ever being asked - "It's okay that I voted her, I mentioned her as slightly suspicious already!"

#438 - Defends his vote.

Originally Posted by Manwe

I've only popped in to vote once...E_D has twice and soon to be thrice

#477 - Mentions that everyone has 'overlooked the quiet players, vote-wise'. I wonder why he mentions this - it's another flipflop on quiet players, in my opinion. Three posts ago he was defending the quiet players, and a post before that he was calling them out.

Originally Posted by Manwe

"Throwaway" because she hasn't "said" as much as other players and so there isn't much to go on? My vote is based on suspicion like anyone elses, not to mention the fact it looked rather clear everyone had it in for Inzil before I voted and not to mention the fact that every majority vote has ended in an innocent being lynched so i'm glad i'm not listening to the majority

Regarding his Elronhubbard vote. Now, to me, this looks like a rather hasty defense, and what does 'it looked rather clear everyone had it in for Inzil before I voted' mean? Are we keeping our hands clean, Manwe? The third point has no bearing on anything.
He mentions people that are alive and have been getting votes "wrong" -

Originally Posted by Manwe

Dead Sally: Wilwa, skip, Agan

Dead Loslote: Shasta, Cailín, Mac, e_d

Dead Inzil: LG, wilwa, Shasta, Pitch, Cailín, Aganzir, Boro

That's rather a lot of players to throw suspicion on.

Oh, and he immediately backtracks when Elronhubbard herself comments on his vote -

Originally Posted by Manwe

That's all I meant, my intention was to just highlight your style in this game so far, that you don't post often other than to vote (like me to be fair)..(and you list the reasons why, be they true or not)

Conclusion - Manwe's opinion on quiet players changes three times in six posts. He asks Legate for clarification on a point that he never follows up on (to act like he's being active, maybe? Asking questions does look like activity), his several defenses of his Elronhubbard vote look jumpy to me AND there's backtracking going on (and the reason for that vote to begin with was shoddy), he tries to throw suspicion on about eight people at once with his 'getting votes wrong' post. I think Manwe is the first person to enter my 'Red' category.

[Macalaure]

Except for a little skirmishing with Pitch at the beginning, people were thinking I'm innocent all the time. Glad that seems to be changing now.

*takes off velvet gloves*

Originally Posted by Skip

Your analysis treats her as an innocent.

As I've shown, the conclusions are almost identical even if Nessa is not included.

If we assume that Boro is the cobbler, a Mac-wolf's vote for Boro-cobbler (whom he probably knows the identity of) also makes sense to me, given that his long analysis is built on the Inzil/Nessa trail as an obvious set-up, and that he is casting suspicion on just about everyone who's partaken in it, and by implication making it a moral high-ground to stay away from it. He wouldn't have thought Boro would go end up lynched anyway I think, and if an accident were to happen, that wouldn't have been that bad for team-evil anyway. Hardly a problem at all in fact, given Agan's maths.

Your argument fails in multiple ways:
-If I just wanted to stay away from the Nessa/Inzil waggons, I could have voted anybody. Why needlessly endanger the cobbler?
-You seem to assume that I already had the whole Nessa/Inzil analysis ready before Inzil was actually dead, and before people started acting extremely suspicious after I left.
-I am not suspecting everybody who took a part in it: I suspect Pitch, Agan, and Legate significantly less than you, Cailín, and Shasta.


I like how you probe into the possibility of lynching the cobbler and immediately jump away from it after Rikae called you on it. Nice try Skipwolf

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Cailin

#10 - IC banter.

#18 - likes Boro. Approves of Pitch. Wary of Eomer. Votes Agan, 'because I owe her one'. Typical random reason for a Day 1 vote, looks like.

#178 - Thought Sally looked fairly innocent. This comment pings my radar a tiny bit, but it's a Lottie-reason. Thinks Lottie looks shady, looking at the Sallywagon.
Feels good about Legate, Lommy, Rikae, Inzil, Boro, Eomer, Kitanna, and Agan. Says the wolves are Mac, Greenie, Lottie, and Nessa.

#186 - The start of an exchange with Rikae regarding wolfish behavior and easy lynches. Cailin thinks wolves are less likely to actively push bad lynches, feeling instead that it's more sensible to 'go with the flow and come up with a mildly credible explanation afterward'.
Also mentions Nessa looks fairly bad after Ozban's death.

#205 - Continuance. Rikae wonders why a wolf wouldn't be actively seeking reasons to suspect someone, but would make unfounded accusations that were easily attackable. Cailin responds with -

Originally Posted by Cailin

I just think that completely unfounded accusations on Day 1 are actually easier and more convincingly defended.

I'm torn here. Part of me is thinking that this exchange looks innocent for both Rikae and Cailin, but then part of me is thinking Cailin looks like someone who has just realized she's pulling more attention that she would like, and so ends her conversation.
Feels better about Mac for much the same reasons I did, and would rather not lynch Kitanna-hunter.

#220 - Continuance. Rikae persists and Cailin does more peacemaking "can we drop the subject" here.

#221 - Analyzes Wilwa and Nessa. As a conclusion, thinks Wilwa is innocent ("I doubt she is evil") and Nessa she says "has done little to make herself look innocent". I think I've said this before, but I don't really like the way this is worded, as if Nessa being a wolf is a foregone conclusion.

#260 - Uncomfortable with Lottie's vote and doesn't like Wilwa's abstention - a bit of a flip flop from her previous post, where she says she doubts Wilwa is evil.

#273 - Doesn't like what she sees of Lottie, gives several reasons. Would not be averse to lynching Nessa, either. Suspecting Cailin for being against Lottie is hypocritical of me, but I will say I'm not sure I like how she leaves herself open to vote Nessa if the bandwagon swings that way.

#287 - A list of players: Guilty and Innocent. Of interest are the fact that Wilwa and Boro are "guilty", as opposed to how Cailin felt about them earlier, and Valier appears on the "guilty" side for a reason I'm not sure I understand.

Originally Posted by Cailin

Valier - I remember Valier quite well from the distant past. She does not give me a fuzzy feeling as of yet.

I generally take 'fuzzy' to mean 'wolfish', which would make it odd that Valier is there for not being 'fuzzy'. Am I just misreading?

#296 - Votes Lottie.

#346 - Says she had Lommy down as innocent from the start. Will be looking at Skip because she thinks Valier was a suspected Seer.

#375 - Quick and dirty analysis of Valier - says if the wolves thought she was the Seer, Nessa and Rikae look good and Skip looks bad.

#378 - Mentions she went over Lommy as well.

Originally Posted by Cailin

Lommy was almost certainly not a we-are-looking-for-the-Seer kill but a let's-get-her-now-before-she-starts-making-sense kill or something involving Inzil (bluff, double bluff, you all know the drill).

I don't necessarily disagree, but I'm not sure I'd use the words 'almost certainly' in a werewolf game.

#381 - Thanks Inzil for his Elronhubbard analysis (I think?). Agrees, but pushes her suspicion of Skip here, saying that his vote for Elronhubbard looked like an attempt at a bandwagon.

#398 - Another list. Wilwa is under 'others' as Cailin doesn't like any of her posts (which comes as a surprise, considering her early analysis of Wilwa, but Cailin has been consistent regarding Wilwa for a few days now, so I'm unsure). The rest of the list seems to be okay, but I confess I'm still waiting for the skip analysis we were promised.

#402 - Puzzled by skip's list, and puzzled by Nessa's attitude. This post kind of feels like 'posting-for-the-sake-of-posting'.

#421 - Agrees that Inzil and Nessa will continue to be a distraction. Doesn't see any reason to vote Boro. Still suspicious of skip - what I'm not liking is that Cailin continues to be 'suspicious' of skip but makes no real effort to push said suspicion.

#427 - Votes Inzil. Honestly, the reason about Inzil's vote for Boro at the last second is one I agree with - it did look shady.

#431 -

Originally Posted by Cailin

Coin tosses are bad but a throwaway vote for a silent player is not much better really.

Haha. I agree.


Conclusions - Cailin is definitely someone to watch. She's got both good and bad points for her - I don't necessarily see full-blown lupinity here, but she's definitely more suspicious than I thought she was. (Wow, don't I sound wishy washy? )

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by skip spence

And regarding your criticism of Legate, those little tricks you do Rikae, they are not very subtle, are they? If you are innocent, the wolves can plainly see them unless they are incompetent which I very much doubt. It certainly seems like something an innocent, possibly gifted, would try rather than a wolf, and I've seen you as a likely innocent because of this, but you would know this well also.

They must be very subtle, since I have no idea what trick you were talking about.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Except for a little skirmishing with Pitch at the beginning, people were thinking I'm innocent all the time. Glad that seems to be changing now.

*takes off velvet gloves*

*picks up one of Mac's velvet gloves and slaps him across the cheek with it*

Originally Posted by Mac

As I've shown, the conclusions are almost identical even if Nessa is not included.

That's hardly the point. You accuse the people who went with the Inzil/Nessa trail, regardless of who they accuse (gives them negative points) and credit those who stayed away from it, that's the point.

Your argument fails in multiple ways:
-If I just wanted to stay away from the Nessa/Inzil waggons, I could have voted anybody. Why needlessly endanger the cobbler?

Because if you vote for the cobbler and not an ordo, there is no vindictive innocent to deal with the next Day?

Because, like Agan has shown, the loss of the cobbler is not that heavy a blow for the wolves, and that you'd look better afterwards lynching a cobbler rather than an innocent?

Because either Nessa or Inzil looked very likely to get lynched regardless of your vote for Boro?

Because you didn't know or suspect Boro was the cobbler (I certainly don't)

Each one of these explanations seem plausible to me.

-You seem to assume that I already had the whole Nessa/Inzil analysis ready before Inzil was actually dead, and before people started acting extremely suspicious after I left.

Once again: The usual suspects Nessa and Inzil did look very likely to get lynched from early on (as far I can remember anyway),

-I am not suspecting everybody who took a part in it: I suspect Pitch, Agan, and Legate significantly less than you, Cailín, and Shasta.

But you did consistently award negative points (ie a suspicion) for anyone who favoured either Nessa or Inzil.

I like how you probe into the possibility of lynching the cobbler and immediately jump away from it after Rikae called you on it. Nice try Skipwolf

That not how it was, and you know it, Mac-wolf!

Now dinner, and then I'll read though Shasta's analysis of Mänwe. I'll try to have a look at another person as well, maybe Greenie or Agan.

Edit: x'ed with shasta and rikae (fine, have it that way!)

[Pitchwife]

Ouch. That lynch yesterDay was ein Griff ins Klo, as we say in German (roughly 'grabbed from the loo', in the sense that you get a handful of - well, you know what). Poor Zil, that was a nasty set-up by the wolves.

So far, I'm afraid we've made the wolves' job pretty easy, and our numbers are dwindling rapidly. Our big assets are that our two remaining gifteds are still alive, so there's still hope.

Speaking of Zil, sadly there's not as much to learn from knowing his role as I hoped there would, now I think it over with a clearer mind. OK, we know that the vote that saved Nessa on Day 2 wasn't made by a packmate, but we still don't know whether he was swayed by an innocent or evil Nessa.
But at the moment, I tend to leave Nessa to the Seer. Like Eomer said yesterDay, chances are high they've already dreamed her (I certainly would have if it was me), and if they haven't, I think they should.
(By the way, I think it's quite possible the wolves interpreted that comment as a seer hint from Eomer himself, hence his death.)

As to Rikae's mysterious #467 and the speculations about it - I think I see what she's driving at (or let's say I have a hypothesis), and if I'm right, I'd much rather nobody had mentioned it, least of all said "It certainly seems like something an innocent, possibly gifted, would try rather than a wolf" (skip! Really?).

EDIT: x-ed from #495 down

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Also, re: Agan - if you're 'green' it means I don't plan to vote you - and I wouldn't plan to vote the cobbler in any case.

[Rikae]

Skip, I can only assume that you're saying I couldn't have spotted any seer hint the wolves would have missed, since I'm not nearly as clever as they are. Well, if you say so. I can only assume you know what you're talking about...

[Rikae]

Someone said we should mention who we planned to vote. That is a good idea, as it helps the wolves to shift the lynch in the direction they prefer.

I'm prepared to vote for Skip, or possibly Boro again. Maybe Legate. What say you all?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Someone said we should mention who we planned to vote. That is a good idea, as it helps the wolves to shift the lynch in the direction they prefer.

I'm prepared to vote for Skip, or possibly Boro again. Maybe Legate. What say you all?

Brilliant, we should totally do this.

I really want to vote for Manwe. I could vote Boro or Skip, I suppose. Probably not Legate, though.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Skip, I can only assume that you're saying I couldn't have spotted any seer hint the wolves would have missed, since I'm not nearly as clever as they are. Well, if you say so. I can only assume you know what you're talking about...

Okay, to clarify: I was referring to that earlier post toDay that appeared to be addressed to the seer (though I didn't rightly understand it) and to some earlier mysterious posts (though I don't remember exactly when and where they can be found now). And no, my point wasn't to imply that you couldn't possibly pick up on any seer-hints, my point was that these tricksy, mysterious posts - like I said I seem to remember a few - are innocent-looking, but that I've just started to fear that this is only for show. I'm by no means sure, and at present I'm not really considering voting you.

This was the criticism of Legate I was referring to:

Originally Posted by Rikae

Legate, you should know better than to ask why an innocent would be so mysterious, and the fact that you ask makes me more distrustful of you.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Voting? Right now, I would prefer... well, I would not really put Boro as my first pick for a vote, as I think he is "just" a Cobbler, and not Mänwe, nor skip. Pitch, as he posted now, actually makes me feel a bit better about him. That limits my choices rather drastically, though. As Eomer wrote on the admin thread that Cailín is not around, I would perhaps not vote for her in her absence, that leaves me with Elron Hubbard or Shasta. The posts he has made now are moving him more to the suspicious side of my scale, with some of the vocabulary which even he pointed out as wishy-washy (I'm not putting him past saying that himself as a sort of double-bluff) and also with the possibility that he seeks a new target in Mänwe (whom I now think more likely innocent).

But still, lot to think about...

EDIT: x-ed with Skip

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Brilliant, we should totally do this.

Agreed. Give me a bit though, I'm still too confused.

Mac maybe, though I'd like to go back and read some of his earlier stuff before I commit to that. Let's not be hasty! In fact I've a bad feeling the wws are rubbing their hands with glee as we tear away at each other.

Will be back in a bit.

[Mänwe]

Compelled to respond now

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

#213 - Mentions that he'd like to see more from anyone with three or less posts, which is funny, because this is his first post of the game.

Well I know what role I play in our incarceration. I needed like others have needed from me, "more to go on", therefore I asked them to have a say. I asked it to draw attention to the fact that a suspicious character might lie in these quiet players- knowing I myself could be counted among them.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Won't vote for Boro.

Because that day I didn't consider him a wolf.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Makes a point of saying that she's 'one he has mentioned in his posts' as if he's defending his vote before ever being asked

Because I anticipated being asked and being judged on my vote as has happened to others so far.

~~

In regards to the 'flipflop' comments- my defense of the quiet players was only because a couple of players had in my mind at the time labelled them as useless, and being one of them I felt it just to comment. But on Legate's and Rikae's clarification, I accepted that I had misunderstood their point, as you pointed out, I accepted the clarifications. This was also the case regarding Legate's comments regarding "throwaway" votes, I was just attacking his view point not defending e_d.

So I don't think it much of a flipflop me maintaining that these folk should be the focus of some suspicion.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

...and what does 'it looked rather clear everyone had it in for Inzil before I voted' mean?

At the point I voted, in my mind it seemed clear that Inzil would be the one to go, regardless I would not have voted for him as I said to Legate, I held no suspicion over him. This leads back to Legate's comment about my e_d vote being "throwaway", I felt as if he meant he would have preferred me voting for Inzil or Nessa, the two who had garnered so much attention that day.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Oh, and he immediately backtracks when Elronhubbard herself comments on his vote.

I admit, it was a bit of a backtrack but only in so far as to point out to her I wasn't presuming she didn't read a single post in the game and just voted.

~~

So, I would say i'm not flipflopping. Just defending a certain strategy while drawing attention to it (because it can be successful).

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Mänwe

Compelled to respond now



Well I know what role I play in our incarceration. I needed like others have needed from me, "more to go on", therefore I asked them to have a say. I asked it to draw attention to the fact that a suspicious character might lie in these quiet players- knowing I myself could be counted among them.

So you were drawing attention to the fact that you were drawing attention to the fact that you could be counted as 'suspicious', which is supposed to in fact make you look more innocent? A wolfish tactic I've used myself.

Because I anticipated being asked and being judged on my vote as has happened to others so far.

Regardless of that, it looks to me as if you were looking for a reason to make your vote okay.

~~

Originally Posted by Manwe

In regards to the 'flipflop' comments- my defense of the quiet players was only because a couple of players had in my mind at the time labelled them as useless, and being one of them I felt it just to comment. But on Legate's and Rikae's clarification, I accepted that I had misunderstood their point, as you pointed out, I accepted the clarifications. This was also the case regarding Legate's comments regarding "throwaway" votes, I was just attacking his view point not defending e_d.

So I don't think it much of a flipflop me maintaining that these folk should be the focus of some suspicion.

You don't think going from "quiet players should be looked at and say more", to "quiet players are no more suspicious than loud players", and back again, is a flipflop?

Originally Posted by Manwe

At the point I voted, in my mind it seemed clear that Inzil would be the one to go, regardless I would not have voted for him as I said to Legate, I held no suspicion over him. This leads back to Legate's comment about my e_d vote being "throwaway", I felt as if he meant he would have preferred me voting for Inzil or Nessa, the two who had garnered so much attention that day.

If you held no suspicion over Inzil, the innocent thing to do would have been to try and save him, not throw away your vote where it would do no good to anyone. I fully agree with Legate here - your vote was throwaway.

Originally Posted by Manwe

I admit, it was a bit of a backtrack but only in so far as to point out to her I wasn't presuming she didn't read a single post in the game and just voted.

I'm afraid it looks more as if you're saying "I voted for you but I don't actually find you suspicious".

So, I would say i'm not flipflopping. Just defending a certain strategy while drawing attention to it (because it can be successful).

"Drawing attention" means you want it looked at while you're defending it at the same time. That's, like, the definition of 'flipflopping'.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by skip spence

Okay, to clarify: I was referring to that earlier post toDay that appeared to be addressed to the seer (though I didn't rightly understand it) and to some earlier mysterious posts (though I don't remember exactly when and where they can be found now). And no, my point wasn't to imply that you couldn't possibly pick up on any seer-hints, my point was that these tricksy, mysterious posts - like I said I seem to remember a few - are innocent-looking, but that I've just started to fear that this is only for show. I'm by no means sure, and at present I'm not really considering voting you.

This was the criticism of Legate I was referring to:

No, this doesn't really make sense in light of your original comment. I wasn't admonishing Legate for drawing attention to anything I said, but for seeking further explanation and suggesting I was not on the village's side if I didn't give it... or at least that's how I interpreted:

Originally Posted by Legate

because if you are on the village's side, I cannot see why you don't speak plainer

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Mac

Except for a little skirmishing with Pitch at the beginning

You call that "a little skirmishing", when I've been your constant top suspect (whom you, for some strange reason, never voted) for three Days, together with Boro, whom you only started to suspect because he defended me too much? And I'm beginning to look better all of a sudden exactly why?

That aside, I have to agree that we should all rethink our suspicions/look at people we've hitherto neglected. I've felt pretty good about Boro and skip for quite a while, and kind of undecided/leaning positive about Legate; some of this is based on early impressions I haven't really reexamined, so I should have a fresh look at them, but it would need some pretty blatant signs of wolvery for me to vote any of them in good conscience.

EDIT: x-ed from #503.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Shasta

Brilliant, we should totally do this.

I really want to vote for Manwe. I could vote Boro or Skip, I suppose. Probably not Legate, though.

What the heck is happening here? Is this supposed to be sounding like a joke (like you actually do not intend to vote for those people), or am I just taking the tone wrong? Are you implying that we should not at all talk about who we want to vote for? Because that kind of makes the Day a bit empty, what else are we to talk about other than who we want to vote for? I don't get this exchange, I must be missing something.

[skip spence]

Okay then, will have a look at Greenie, then Mac, and if there's time, Agan.

I suggest that someone also considers a fresh look at Shasta, Legate, Boro and Wilwa. I'm sure I've forgotten about someone too...

[Rikae]

Hmmm.

I am reconsidering my suspects at the moment anyway, Wilwa,but for myself, I was thinking of voting one of those people, barring new information, and I was also (even more so) interested in what others would think of those choices.

Ah well, anyway... back to the drawing board.

[A Little Green]

Someone (was it Legate?) said that Pitch looks better after his first post toDay. I disagree. I haven't been suspecting Pitch almost at all, but that post makes me wonder if I should.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Ouch. That lynch yesterDay was ein Griff ins Klo, as we say in German (roughly 'grabbed from the loo', in the sense that you get a handful of - well, you know what). Poor Zil, that was a nasty set-up by the wolves.

So far, I'm afraid we've made the wolves' job pretty easy, and our numbers are dwindling rapidly. Our big assets are that our two remaining gifteds are still alive, so there's still hope.

The tone of this doesn't strike me as genuine at all.

Originally Posted by Pitch

As to Rikae's mysterious #467 and the speculations about it - I think I see what she's driving at (or let's say I have a hypothesis), and if I'm right, I'd much rather nobody had mentioned it, least of all said "It certainly seems like something an innocent, possibly gifted, would try rather than a wolf" (skip! Really?).

And this, in the end of the same post, pinged all the radars I have. "I don't want attention drawn to this topic, but here I am talking about it!" does not strike me as sound logic - actually a lot like a cobbler doing his best to make the wolves spot something he did.


EDIT: x.ed with Wilwa, Skip and Rikae

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Once again a note about Mänwe, seeing what he posted now... and Shasta, if you are innocent, I would suggest you try to think about it too... he sounds to me not like a Wolf, but like a truly honestly speaking innocent, being honest to the point of it doing harm to him. I mean, if it is a honest need to explain himself, I can very well imagine it. No, I am definitely not voting him toDay.

[A Little Green]

I might consider voting Skip, Pitch or Cailín - probably not Cailín toDay though if she's not around. I could be persuaded to try Mac, Rikae or Shasta, but not before I've taken a better look at them.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Greenie

And this, in the end of the same post, pinged all the radars I have. "I don't want attention drawn to this topic, but here I am talking about it!" does not strike me as sound logic - actually a lot like a cobbler doing his best to make the wolves spot something he did.

I'd say there had already been enough talked about it by Legate and Shasta, so it was a little late to gloss it over completely.
And if you want me to (and Rikae says it's OK), I can of course spell out what I think she meant (in which I may of course be completely mistaken), but I don't see how that would benefit anyone but the wolves. Anyway I can assure you it had nothing to do with me pointing out anything to anybody, least of all the wolves.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Pitch

I'd say there had already been enough talked about it by Legate and Shasta, so it was a little late to gloss it over completely.
And if you want me to (and Rikae says it's OK), I can of course spell out what I think she meant (in which I may of course be completely mistaken), but I don't see how that would benefit anyone but the wolves. Anyway I can assure you it had nothing to do with me pointing out anything to anybody, least of all the wolves.

I'm not sure I get everything you're saying here, I'm not at all into hints and ploys and such in any case. No, you don't need to tell me what you thought it was about.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Ski

That's hardly the point. You accuse the people who went with the Inzil/Nessa trail, regardless of who they accuse (gives them negative points) and credit those who stayed away from it, that's the point.

Since Inzil was innocent, I think I can do that! And even without knowing Nessa's role for certain, I find it very suspicious how a lot of people treated them as if they were one person.

I didn't give any points to people who just stayed away (in fact, that's a flaw in the system), but gave positive points who "publicly renounced" it.

Originally Posted by Skip

Once again: The usual suspects Nessa and Inzil did look very likely to get lynched from early on (as far I can remember anyway),

True, but a significant deal of suspicious behaviour occurred after my vote.

Originally Posted by Skip

But you did consistently award negative points (ie a suspicion) for anyone who favoured either Nessa or Inzil.

That's what you do if you don't have a bias. You should try it sometime.


I noticed that you're accusing me plentifully, but haven't commented on even one item I had against you in the analysis. I will gladly spell it out again if you'd like.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Speaking of Zil, sadly there's not as much to learn from knowing his role as I hoped there would, now I think it over with a clearer mind. OK, we know that the vote that saved Nessa on Day 2 wasn't made by a packmate, but we still don't know whether he was swayed by an innocent or evil Nessa.

This sounds like a cop-out to me.

Originally Posted by Pitch

You call that "a little skirmishing"

In the sense that you didn't suspect me back very much.

Originally Posted by Pitch

together with Boro, whom you only started to suspect because he defended me too much?

That was only one of the reasons.

Originally Posted by Pitch

And I'm beginning to look better all of a sudden exactly why?

Because you didn't turn out as evil based on my analysis than I thought you would. Don't you consider yourself off the hook.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I didn't give any points to people who just stayed away (in fact, that's a flaw in the system), but gave positive points who "publicly renounced" it.

Publicly renouncing a bandwagon against two innocents (if that's what they were) is plenty wolfy.

[Rikae]

And I say that in spite of having done it myself, actually.