Werewolf LXXXIII: The Nightmare on the East Road

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Are Kath and Pitch gonna sign in?

I believe Pitch is taking a look at Greenie... I'd like to hear from Kath though (something else than Alpha speculation).

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Well, I've just poured some Macallan single malt and I'm here until deadline. I seriously love Werewolf.

[Aganzir]

++Form

Because I feel worse about him each time I read a post by him, and because he, along with - conveniently - two other people seems intent on getting both me and Eomer dead. And I have over 10 times more posts than he.

If Eomer is a baddie I'll totally deserve to be ridiculed, but I'm rather fooled by a wolf who speaks more.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Agreed.

++FORMENDACIL

[Pitchwife]

Looking at the clock, I'm afraid that Greenalysis will have to wait till toMorrow. From how far I've got yet (Day 3), I must say that just from the tone of her voice she doesn't really feel like a wolf.

Wow, I just realized how small this village has become all of a sudden, and how quiet.

Originally Posted by Eomer

I'm going to look like a fool if you're guilty, Agan, but I really believe you're innocent. And if that's the case, you've hit the nail on the head with that last post. Nerwen, Green and Form are my villains (it's possible that Kath can be exchanged for one of them but I'm leaning away from that now).

Originally Posted by Agan

It works the other way round, too. I'm going to be seriously mad if you're a wolf and I've almost lynched you before but try to save you now.

And I'm going to look like a fool if I end up trusting yet another wolf, which might well happen with how clueless I currently am about you two.
But you know what, this sudden thinking alike of great minds is a bit funny. What's funny too is that Agan has examined my interaction with Shasta in some detail but doesn't seem to really suspect me, and Eomer actually thinks I'm innocent. Makes me wonder if perhaps you know I'm not a wolf.
For all I know, I could be looking at one or even two of Shasta's packmates looking for Ferny.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Can't remember for certain why I think you're innocent, Pitch; it was something to do with your Shasta interaction though. He suspected you, I believe.

[Kath]

I'm sorry I keep forgetting deadline is now an hour earlier.

Someone throw me a vote count? Reeeeally don't want to end up with ties and last minute votes again.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

What's funny too is that Agan has examined my interaction with Shasta in some detail but doesn't seem to really suspect me

Should I?
I don't think it made you look particularly innocent either, but you're not my primary worry at the moment.

[Kath]

I don't like the attack on Eomer. He hasn't done anything particularly suspicious so far as I've seen. I mean, he's been suspected the last couple of Days for a) possibly being the Barrow Wight and b) possibly being the Seer. Generally not much of being a wolf. Also, if EW had dreamed of him then I doubt that he would have changed his vote. I do not believe that ANY Seer having dreamt of 2 out of 3 wolves (Eomer and Shasta) would not reveal and tell us that.

[Aganzir]

Kath I believe it's Eomer-3, Form-2, me-1, Pitch-1, with you & Pitch still to vote.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Kath

Also, if EW had dreamed of him then I doubt that he would have changed his vote. I do not believe that ANY Seer having dreamt of 2 out of 3 wolves (Eomer and Shasta) would not reveal and tell us that.

I don't think EW did, my best guess is that it was n1-Lottie, n2-Volo, n-3 Shasta. No time for Eomer...

[Kath]

As for Form, whatever the case with non-involvement and it being waaay too tempting to want to lynch for that, I don't think that if he had a role he would be so uninvolved. Somehow I just don't believe that of him. It would be unsportsmanlike.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

If you want my honest advice, you should both vote for Form.

[Kath]

Eomer, for me it feels to be choosing between two innocents. If there were any voters left I'd be voting for Greenie. On a readthrough of the thread she stuck out as the most suspicious to me.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Kath

As for Form, whatever the case with non-involvement and it being waaay too tempting to want to lynch for that, I don't think that if he had a role he would be so uninvolved. Somehow I just don't believe that of him. It would be unsportsmanlike.

That's a fair point I guess, but even if he's innocent it's not very sportsmanlike to refrain from posting. If you are only involved when special, why sign up? So I don't think I'll regret my vote (much) even if he turns out innocent.

[Kath]

Well maybe Agan but that said if I think he's innocent I'm not much likely to vote for him. All our positive special roles have gone so even if Eomer is innocent if I don't think Form is guilty it's vaguely pointless to vote an ordo to save an ordo.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Well Kath, don't vote Green today. It's pointless. Choose between me and Form.

For what it's worth, I believe Green is guilty too.

[Kath]

It's also pointless to choose between you and Form, Eomer. If Pitch isn't voting then if I vote Form it just causes a tie, and if I vote you it's superfluous.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Pitch will vote. There is always a choice!

[Aganzir]

Even if they're both innocent, I'd rather Form died than Eomer because Eomer is actually playing.

[Pitchwife]

Agan, didn't you say yourself it was too easy?
Somethings fishy here, and I doubt it's Form. I may be going to rue this, but I think

++Eomer

[Kath]

But I'd be more convinced of Form's innocence than Eomer's.

You know what? I ended up being the Seer-lyncher the other Day. I'm wussing out toDay.

++GREENIE

In preparation for toMorrow.

[Aganzir]

And now I'm second-guessing myself "what if Eomer is a wolf who's fooled me into voting an innocent and is now smirking behind his screen"... Argh!

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Ach weel, so be it.

Read my posts. I'm no seer but, you know...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Oh and, Ho Bom, Dom-Ba-Lom, or something.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I'm here, I'm here! No more talking! I shall get on with narratin'.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Fare thee well, my Aime...

[Boromir88]

"See, what did I tell you love? We get Bombadil to take care of the Barrow-wight for us, and then we take care of him."

"You were right, but still I'd like to have eaten Tom myself. He looked delicious."

"You think everyone looks delicious, until you take a bite out of them."

"Hehe, true, but I thought Butterbur was good, it was just his ale that bothered me. Oooh, and Inzil, that was a fun mess we made of him last night. However, now we only got simple folk to feed on, since the village has done a good job getting rid of all their special treats."

"I'm not going to complain about that. We're going to feast on all of them sooner or later."

The wolves were in higher spirits and a renewed confidence now that only the common folk remained in their way. Also, if Ferney had been doing his job, it was sure he'd know at least one of them by now. Or so they thought. In any case, it was time to eat again and the wolves chose Lottie tonight.

"Let's hope she's not Ferney." said one of the wolves crossing its finger.

"I don't think so. Ferney doesn't sound like an appetizing person to eat at all, does it? I'd imagine he'd be rough and grossly chewy." said the wolf who thinks everyone looks tasty. "But say Lottie. MMMM the name melts in your mouth and so she will."

Lottie awoke to see the two dark figures standing around her, licking their lips. She didn't struggle much or shout, it seems like she had accepted her fate. Her last words were something like, "I hope you choke on my clavicle."

But the wolves would not joke on any of Lottie's bones, and she indeed was not Ferney, but just another common, tasty wolf treat.

LIVING
Agan
Formendacil
Greenie
Kath
Nerwen
Pitchwife
Wilwa

DEAD
Boro (Mod) - knocked out stone-cold - Night 1
Fea (honorary co-mod) - nommed by wolfies - Night 1
Glirdan (cobbler) - Harry Goatleaf - Day 1
No death! - Night 2
Volo (innocent) - Ranger - Day 2
Nogrod (innocent) - Butterbur - Night 3
Elf-Warrior (innocent - Seer - Day 3
No death! - Night 4
Shasta (evil) - wolf - Day 4
Inzil (innocent) - ordo - Night 5
Sally (evil) - Barry Wight - Night 5
Eomer (innocent) - Bombadil - Day 5
Loslote (innocent) - ordo - Night 6

Now Day 6.
(There be no gifteds left to lynch so maybe the village will fair better today...eh? ).

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

(There be no gifteds left to lynch so maybe the village will fair better today...eh? ).

Hey hey hey, we also got a Wolf and a Cobbler, so we have not been doing all that bad.

5 hours in, and no posts? I'm dissapointed.

I was going to do a list but my computer is glitching up again (I really need to get a new one), and I don't want to spend time writing something long only to lose it before I can post. So I will try to come on in the morning when I can use my sister's computer. Hopefully I'll be able to participate more than I did the last Day.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Hey hey hey, we also got a Wolf and a Cobbler, so we have not been doing all that bad.

You must admit though, it's quite remarkable how few ordos have kicked the bucket this game.

So, apologies to Eomer. As I said, I just thought his attack on Shasta was a possible wolf-on-wolf. Also– which I should have explained yesterDay– with such strong evidence against Shasta, it seemed likely that one or both of his packmates would decide to bus him immediately. Now, at the time, of those who strongly argued against him even before he confessed, Zil was dead and Lottie a probable dreamed innocent. So that left Eomer. Well, I was wrong.

I'm just looking at Day One now, and the thing that strikes me is this: no wolves posted for ages. As we all know, it's usual for a wolf or two to be among the first to post on Day One– both because the little darlings can't contain their eagerness, and also just as a matter of statistical probability. Yet, this time the first unknown (to the rest of you) was me, five hours and forty minutes into the Day. Wolftanis posted at 4:55 AM GMT, and then the first unknown from my point of view was Greenie (#28), a whole twelve hours after DL. So I'd say the remaining wolves either had time constraints, were lying low on purpose, or just weren't all that interested in playing. Either way, we can't any longer use the "not participating enough to be a wolf" argument. (Not to mention we're running out of active players anyway.)

[Nerwen]

Well, I had to go out, so I haven't got very far with this. But then I appear to be talking to myself here anyway.

Here's an interesting point. We now know Sally was the person attacked on Night One. Why? Had the wolves spotted her as the Barrow Wight? Or did they perhaps think she was the Seer? Well, she did talk about the BW on Day One, but so of course did a good many people.

In this post she comments on Aganzir's scenario of the BW joining forces with the baddies:

Originally Posted by Sallywight

1. How will the BW know who the wolves are?
2. Why would they side with the wolves? If the wolves win, they'll gang up and kill the BW, because they'll know who is not one of them. That just doesn't work.

That might have been a giveaway– too clearly thinking from the Wight's POV.

Well, that's not much use to us now. However, in the same post she also says:

Originally Posted by Wightisaloser2005

I concur. It would be very like Agan to distract the village with a secondary plan of killing the BW in order to lessen the pressure on the wolves. I could totally see it.

I've not looked hard enough at Greenie (not really at all, in fact) to say anything either way. I'll hope to look at her toMorrow and see what I think of the post.

Could that have looked like Seer-code for "I dreamt Agan last Night and I'm going to dream Greenie toNight"? Or maybe for "I'm going to dream either of them toNight" ("could see it" is ambiguous)? What she actually says about her vote suggests the second option.

Originally Posted by Sally

Okay, kids, I will NOT be back after this post, period. Too many errands to run after work and possibly lots of work to do this afternoon anyway. Thus, a vote.

++Agan

There's a chance her BW plan is actually innocent, but I don't think she would be thinking so far ahead as an ordo, and as a gifted (the seer at least) she would likely rather keep her head down and worry about finding the BW and exposing them herself. Thus, I don't think it's necessarily a completely evil scheme, but I think she wants to get rid of another opponent right off the bat, and since the BW doesn't pose much of a threat to the village right now, that leaves her as evil.

[Nerwen]

Formendacil

Day One

#51. Banter with Eomer; hates Day Ones. (What a surprise!)

#96. (At this point, Agan had 3 votes. Wilwa and Glirdan 1 each.)

Originally Posted by Form

As said before, I don't think Agan should die toDay, so if I'm to cast a useful vote, it needs to be either Glirdan-ward or Wilwa-ward. Of the two, I've found Glirdan more entertaining toDay, and Wilwa slightly more useful...

But it's Day 1, and slightness is slight... so...

++ Wilwarin

Comment: The oddity of voting the "slightly more useful" person over the "entertaining" one has already been commented on– however, I don't think it's that important in Day One vote. Not by itself, anyway. However, the fact remains that, unlike Glirdan or Agan, Wilwa had done nothing to attract suspicion. The other vote on her was Glirdanleaf's (#63), which he himself admitted to be completely random. (With hindsight, he must have voted her precisely because he didn't think she was a wolf.)


Day Two

#161. Discusses the Night's events; not happy about the lack of a Night-kill, since it gives no information.

Comment: This seems much too obvious and open for a wolf to say.

However–

#195.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Well... I'm here and reading, and while I am utterly disinclined to do so, I feel guilty about not posting so... I'm posting. Pitch has unflatteringly, but dead-accurately described me as "maybe I can be bothered, maybe not," and to be 100% honest, I'm more wrapped up in my paper at the moment than in catching wolves.

I'd prefer to think that speaks for my innocence, given that I tend to be more invested in things as a wolf--and as the Days go on, and there's more to analyze--but that's just me. I believe I have been obliqued accused of being somewhat callous already... let me dig up the quote...

Okay, maybe I exaggerate to say "callous," but it's a nice, hard-boiled accusation that would fit with Pitch's description of me. And, let's be clear: I am a bit callous here. We would have more to go on if we had a cold, dead wolf-kill. At Night 2 in the game, it's arguably more valuable for the village to lose an ordo and gain some concrete evidence than to go kill-less. Obviously, this will vary depending on the situation--for example, in the case of a Ranger-save, at least the Ranger knows who one innocent is, and can do some digging accordingly... but the only people in THIS situation who now know more than they did yesterDay are the BW and the Wolves... none of whom are on the village's side.

Heh--look at that! I'm all worked up now. A good, rousing reply in the next half hour or so might even spur me to more action.

Maybe.

Comment: Oh, I don't like this post. The last part uses many words to say very little; for the rest, Form just analyses himself, and is at pains to point out how his apathy should be taken for a sign of innocence.


#209.Has no time to make a proper decision. Likes Nog's case for Agan being a cobbler, but will not vote her because, "she's much too hot a topic toDay for me to vote for on that reason alone. Without studying it to the extent that it deserves, I don't want to be swept up in something with such highly volatile bandwaggon potential."

Votes Wilwa again, "in the interests of economy", adding that this time she does feel "slightly off" to him.


Day Three

#428. Cast the fourth vote on Shasta. Not much to conclude from that, since Shasta was obviously going down by that point. (Form may have X'd with his actual confession, however.) Rest of this long post is largely devoted to analysing himself again ( ), including discussing his own "lying low" tactics and mentioning how busy he is. He does devote some time to musing on the possible guilt of Agan and Eomer– the former because the doomed Wolftanis had suggested that she and Form be modkilled.


Day Four

#500.

Originally Posted by Form

So... I came on the Downs approximately 3 hours ago, intending to post here, and completely got sidetracked by the genealogy of the sons of Eärendil, and then got distracted by a process of tangentially related ideas such that... I'm only here now, and with other things to do.

Hopefully, though, you expect nothing else from me at this point, given how the game has gone so far.

Quote:
Originally Posted by A Little Green
This, though, is really interesting. Especially the first category. Shasta was quite consistent in suspecting both Agan and Eomer, and yet never voted either. I doubt both two are his fellows, that would be a very odd move from Shasta's part, but I'll be a bit surprised if neither of them is.
In my read-through of posts so far, this is what stuck out to me... largely because I tend to agree--although I'm a bit more willing than Greenie to think they could both be wolves, while conceding that one is, in fact, more likely.

In keeping then, with my yesterDay suspicions about Agan (namely that she was listed with me in Shasta's post for the purposes of exonerating her, convicting me, doing both, or just confusing the village), I'll lean in her direction, though Eomer is giving me bad vibes as well.

++ Aganzir

I may be on later... but I'm not committing to it.

This post is... partly okay. The okay bit is where he echoes Greenie's argument– adding nothing, but that's acceptable for someone in a hurry, and I admit I did much the same myself. His own reason for suspecting Agan, there, though, is just plain silly. To quote myself on the "alpha wolf" topic, there's no way of telling whether that was a bluff, or a double-bluff, or what. I also don't care for the way he again draws attention to his general lack of involvement. This is getting absurd– I mean, for someone who clams to have been too busy and apathetic throughout the game to do anything at all productive, he's written some quite long posts, and always seems to have a pretty good handle on what's going on.


Conclusions: I hadn't even thought much about Form before– but he really doesn't look too good. At the very least, he's certainly being– how shall I put it?– aggressively unhelpful.

EDIT:formatting.

[Nerwen]

Still no-one around?

[Nerwen]

I mean, honestly, apart from the first post the entire day has consisted entirely of me talking to myself!

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

So I'd say the remaining wolves either had time constraints, were lying low on purpose, or just weren't all that interested in playing.

The first would point at us Europeans, the second two at Form.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

That might have been a giveaway– too clearly thinking from the Wight's POV.

But would the wolves have wanted to attack a suspected BW?

My guess is that the wolves went after sally because she had talked little and the only person her death would point at was me - and because of something Nog said:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Sally seems to be trying this time. She's not only dealing cookies and talking random. So should I be suspicious of her? I am.

I only remembered it now, but the wolves might have thought she was a gifted. Because there was something off with her and it was obvious even before Nog put it into words.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

But would the wolves have wanted to attack a suspected BW?

No, you're right– I hadn't thought that out properly.

[Aganzir]

Okay I don't know how useful this is going to be, but I'll go through everyone's posts and see what they said of sally.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

My guess is that the wolves went after sally because she had talked little and the only person her death would point at was me.

You and Greenie– but in both cases it looks more like she's saying she's thinking of dreaming you. While that would no doubt have rung more alarm bells if one or both of you were wolves, it could have made her look like the Seer even if you're not.

EDIT:X'd with Agan.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

You and Greenie– but in both cases it looks more like she's saying she's thinking of dreaming you. While that would no doubt have rung more alarm bells if one or both of you were wolves, it could have made her look like the Seer even if you're not.

True - and if Greenie is a wolf, she might have got worried. After all, many people seemed convinced I was the cobbler.

[Aganzir]

Form
Complains about the lack of nightkill. On day 4, he says there's a villain in the sally/Agan feud, maybe the Wight but he's inclined to think otherwise, and he thinks it's me.

Kath
The only thing she says about sally is "Question: If sally's the BW ... double lynch possible?"

Greenie
Sally's day 1 vote looked bandwagonish. Unwilling to vote for her on day 3 unless she shows up. Me & sally's row at the end of day 3 made her feel worse about us both. On day 4, she says sally's show of not making sense looks bad, and guesses sally is the cobbler. She's never seen an innocent sally behave like that but can't think of a reason for a wolf or the BW to do so.

wilwa
Would feel bad about voting for sally on day 3 because she'd been sick.

Pitch
A bit of banter on day 1 & day 4.

Nerwen
Inclined to believe Shasta was telling the truth about sally - he would've been silly to try to take her down if he hadn't known she wasn't Ferny.

If someone wants to go through my posts, feel free to do so, but I can sum them up here and say sally was one of my top suspects since day 1.

**

I'd say Greenie and Form look the worst - no one else (who's alive) really commented on my argument with sally, but they both suggested there was a baddie involved. Greenie pointed out sally wasn't making sense (which was true though) and agreed with me she could be the cobbler, while Form seemed certain one of us was a villain (but he suggested it was me). It would've been convenient for the wolves even if I had been lynched - they could've argued, "Well, maybe Agan was on to something then, how about we lynch sally now?" It would've given them the excuse to lynch her without appearing to know more about her.
Kath looks a bit better, but I could see her comment as evil, too (make up for Shasta's death etc). And I think wilwa, Pitch and Nerwen looked quite neutral (which is not to say they couldn't be wolves - or the cobbler - since we don't know how the wolves decided to react to sally).