Werewolf LXXXIII: The Nightmare on the East Road

[wilwarin538]

Here (the previous Night he had referred to one Alpha):

Originally Posted by Boro

"I can't believe that just happened" grinned the other Alpha. "Now we know who the Wight is, so it shall be easy to avoid and with no guardian, looks like our fortunes are finally beginning to change."

"Aye" said the last Alpha. "And let us hope it's a seer snack tonight. That will more than fill my hungry stomach."

It was actually from Night 3, but yeah, probably not all that important.

*goes back to taking notes*

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Who do we suspect people? Let's start fighting with each other! Way too nice today.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

It could mean something, but Pitch and I both have plenty more posts than Kath, so not sure how you draw this conclusion.

I wasn't thinking of post count when I said that. Closer to this:

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Dear Eomer, what she means is that you and Pitch are totally not Alpha-worthy wolves.

But even that's not quite it. More that you, Pitchie, and Formy are, from what I've seen, more laid-back and less confrontational. I don't know Kath that well, so I said maybe on her. Agan, we all know, is a bit confrontational.

Also, it's Thursday again, so...I'll be voting way early again. Maybe for Eomer or Pitchie (and not because of the Alpha theory, but because I actually do find them suspicious).

[Aganzir]

Shasta went quite consistently after Inzil and me since day 1 (his initial reason being BW confusion), and also didn't trust Pitch. He considered voting for either Glirdan or me and went for Glirdan in the end (mwahaha).

On day 2, he suggests the BW is someone who looked seerish, mentioning Nog as a potential candidate (which would "point at one or more of Greenie, Pitch, Wilwa, and Agan as wolves," me being the most likely wolf in the bunch - later he says an Aganwolf doesn't make sense in the context of the theory which also casts doubt on the other three being wolves). He and Inzil argued about Eomer after Inzil suggested Eomer looked more like the seer who had dreamed me a wolf than Nog did because Nog was so explicit that I was the cobbler.
Anyway he pushed Nog's being the BW very strongly (although he also mentioned the no trace people Eomer, sally, Kath & Form as possible kills). I'm inclined to think he was trying to take a distance from sally in case she died before him so we wouldn't find a link back to Shasta... and he says it'd be useful to speculate on who the BW is because the fact that the wolves attacked her is a big piece of information. And because sally was pretty much a no trace kill, it would've been convenient for the wolves to make us focus on that.

Shasta finds EW's vote for Eomer fabricated-looking and safe, and calls wilwa and me wolfish for saying there's no use trying to find the BW before we know more. He argues with wilwa and to a lesser degree also me and Pitch, and expresses contempt for Form's motivation. He's neutral on Eomer but "inclined to see if he steps it up tomorrow (last chance, Eomer!)"

You don't want to vote for my dear one or I, and yet you find us both guilty? How interesting.

There's something weird about this comment. It's a reply to me after I said I suspected both Nerwen and Shasta but didn't want to vote for them that day. It's oddly... self-conscious, if you know what I mean. It looks like he was accusing me of not voting either of them... or kind of like "She doesn't want to vote for people she suspects! Guilty!" And it actually makes me feel worse about Nerwen.

Out of Eomer, me, EW, wilwa and Form I looked the worst and wilwa the best, but he ended up voting for Volo (crossing with his reveal). He then called for three more votes for Eomer, but it didn't basically mean anything because Volo was the only remaining voter around.

I wonder how much we can make of Shasta's day 3 posts because EW voted for him quite early (and his post must have alarmed the wolves, Shasta included, so he might have been preparing for his death already then).
He banters with Nerwen in a friendly tone, says he seems to remember Eomer is more involved as a wolf but he might still vote for him on principle, and disagrees with Greenie: "I don't really see why having principles automatically makes you wolvish." They were talking about Kath, and that's not what Greenie said, she just pointed out it would be convenient for a wolf. He criticised Inzil for calling EW an easy vote and voting for Kath himself (who hadn't shown up yet that day). He wanted to vote for Eomer & me (plus a couple of dead innocents), didn't want to for wilwa, Lottie & Greenie, and could vote for Kath & Form (and sally) on principle but probably wouldn't unless things changed. He was neutral on Pitch and Nerwen. I'm not going to start any "he probably didn't put his fellows in the same category" stuff because it's impossible to know what a wolf would do in a certain situation... but it's worth pointing out that he probably knew he'd die if EW was revealed as the seer, and his intent was therefore to ensure that his fellows survive. However there are a million ways for that, and if someone wants to analyse it, go ahead, but I won't.

And I'm going to ignore everything Shasta said yesterday because it was meant just to confuse us, and I think the only thing we might be able to find there is the cobbler (and even that's not a given).

**

Shasta suspects (but never votes - everyone he actually voted is dead by now):
Eomer
Agan

Friendly with:
Nerwen

Quarrels with:
wilwa
Pitch
(Agan)

Very little interaction:
Form
Greenie
Kath
Lottie

Based on this, I'd put people (myself excluded, obviously) in this order. From the most likely fellow to the least:
Eomer - an enigma that could go either way, but to me he looks more wolfish than innocent. The way Shasta keeps bringing him up but never acts on it doesn't really speak in his favour (but then, he did the same with me).
Kath - very little interaction but Shasta's subtle defense of her by semi-questioning Greenie doesn't look too good.
Nerwen - not much game-related interaction except occasional agreeing with each other which would be convenient for them as a wolf-pair. Plus the quote I provided above.
Form - nothing speaks for his being Shasta's fellow, but nothing speaks against it, either.
Pitch - an argument but not much else.
Greenie - because he twisted what she said of Kath.
wilwa - her argument with Shasta looks quite innocent.
Lottie - because I'm willing to consider her a known innocent, anyway.

Note that this is only based on what Shasta said of people, not what they said of him. I might take a look at it later unless someone else would like to (which, to be honest, I wouldn't much mind ).

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Agan, we all know, is a bit confrontational.

I hope this proves my innocence because I totally wouldn't let Shasta be the Alpha.

Maybe for Eomer or Pitchie (and not because of the Alpha theory, but because I actually do find them suspicious).

I find the part in brackets hilarious.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I hope this proves my innocence because I totally wouldn't let Shasta be the Alpha.

Really, though, I'm inclined to think you mostly innocent. Regardless of the Alpha thing, I don't see you and Shasta being packmates, and you haven't been very suspicious.

Since I don't know if I'll have another chance to get on today...

++Eomer

Good wolf hunting, O village!

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Less confrontational? Today I have demanded that we all start being nastier to each other; previously I urged the mods to give Shasta a particularly gruesome death; and I earlier admitted that my bloodlust was so that I could barely think of anything other than lynching Kath - and Kath's reply to this last statement was good-humoured!

So I take that claim, coupled with your vote, with the greatest offence!

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Ok, seriously, are we giving Loslote a free pass because of what EW said? I tend to think yes and that we have to trust our Seer to make his dreams apparent. Opinions?

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Wilwa

Wow, our first dead ordo (on Night 5, how odd).

Whoa, that's true actually. What a strange game.

Originally Posted by Agan

There's something weird about this comment. It's a reply to me after I said I suspected both Nerwen and Shasta but didn't want to vote for them that day. It's oddly... self-conscious, if you know what I mean. It looks like he was accusing me of not voting either of them... or kind of like "She doesn't want to vote for people she suspects! Guilty!" And it actually makes me feel worse about Nerwen.

I don't get this point really, but then again I don't think I get the quote it's about either..

Originally Posted by Agan

Shasta suspects (but never votes - everyone he actually voted is dead by now):
Eomer
Agan

Friendly with:
Nerwen

Quarrels with:
wilwa
Pitch
(Agan)

Very little interaction:
Form
Greenie
Kath
Lottie

This, though, is really interesting. Especially the first category. Shasta was quite consistent in suspecting both Agan and Eomer, and yet never voted either. I doubt both two are his fellows, that would be a very odd move from Shasta's part, but I'll be a bit surprised if neither of them is. Suspecting without actually doing anything about it points to wolf-on-wolf, though as I said that's likely not the case with both (which brings into question if it's the case with either). Agh, I've got a feeling I'm not making much sense, but I'm trying.

Originally Posted by Eomer

Ok, seriously, are we giving Loslote a free pass because of what EW said? I tend to think yes and that we have to trust our Seer to make his dreams apparent. Opinions?

I agree with you on this point. It would have made absolutely no sense at all for EW to single her out like that while mentioning no one else if he hadn't dreamed her innocent. So I, at least, am leaving Lottie alone.

[Pitchwife]

Butbut...yay for SallyWight being deadful.

Well, technically she was deadful to begin with, but yay for her being doubleplusdeadful. Well done, Tom!
(By the way, I think we can assume that Tom is not somebody whom she could have stunned last Night, and not who she apparently thought he was, right? In this case, I'm quite at a loss what to make of her vendetta against Agan. Any ideas?)

And R.I.P. Zil. Rereading yesterDays proceedings, it became clear even to me that he had to be innocent - with that temper on both sides of his fight with Shasta, no way it could have been staged. So his death wasn't really a big surprise.
(Although, in principle, with TEW's role revealed it must have been clear to the wolves that Shasta would be yesterDay's lynch, so it would have made sense for his packmates to push it in order to increase their own chances. Those who argued the most for it - i.e. Lottie, Eomer, Nerwen , among the living - obviously look good now, but there could still be a wolf in there (not saying there has to).)

Zil suggested looking at the TEW voters from Day 3, and I've started going through Lottie's posts from the beginning, because I suspected her quite heavily on Day 1 but haven't concentrated on her since. It does look like TEW dreamed her innocent on Night 2, mainly because I think he would have made sure to leave some clues in the few words he posted, but I'd just like to see for myself.

[wilwarin538]

Computer dead, doing this on iPod, won't be able to come on again, sorry!

++Pitch

Kind of random I'm afraid! Good luck!

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I don't get this point really, but then again I don't think I get the quote it's about either..

Me neither. It seems like a bit of a reach on Agan's part, really.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

This, though, is really interesting. Especially the first category. Shasta was quite consistent in suspecting both Agan and Eomer, and yet never voted either. I doubt both two are his fellows, that would be a very odd move from Shasta's part, but I'll be a bit surprised if neither of them is. Suspecting without actually doing anything about it points to wolf-on-wolf, though as I said that's likely not the case with both (which brings into question if it's the case with either). Agh, I've got a feeling I'm not making much sense, but I'm trying.

No, that makes sense– and I don't know which of them (if it is one) it would be.

However, since I have to go now I'll vote

++Eomer

Apologies if you're innocent, Eomer, because you really helped lynch Shasta yesterDay– but I'm afraid your interactions rubbed me the wrong way, especially towards the end. Like you were overplaying the role of an innocent gloating over a trapped wolf, if you see what I mean.

And I'm sorry for my lack of participation toDay, but I spent the morning and afternoon driving around the country getting footage for a video I'm making, and the evening logging it. So I just wasn't able to be around much.

EDIT:X'd since Greenie.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Well, technically she was deadful to begin with, but yay for her being doubleplusdeadful. Well done, Tom!
(By the way, I think we can assume that Tom is not somebody whom she could have stunned last Night, and not who she apparently thought he was, right?

Sally stunned Zil last Night. It's in the narration.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

In this case, I'm quite at a loss what to make of her vendetta against Agan. Any ideas?)

Unless I dreamed this, Agan said she was stunned the Night before.

Originally Posted by TEH ROOLZ

The B-W may not stun the same person twice in a row.

So I'd guess Sally did think Agan was Bombadil (whether rightly or wrongly ), but simply wasn't able to stun her last Night.

[Kath]

I'm mildly confused about this focus on Shasta being Alpha meaning that he was 'in charge'. Especially after someone posted that part of the narration in which ALL the wolves were referred to as Alpha. So surely the term has no meaning beyond being a kind of title. As for Shasta saying 'I have two wolf buddies who will rip apart anyone I say' (ish) ... so far as I saw that was just a caught wolf blustering. Can't quite see why people are reading so much into it.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Ok, seriously, are we giving Loslote a free pass because of what EW said? I tend to think yes and that we have to trust our Seer to make his dreams apparent. Opinions?

Yes. If she actually is a wolf and wins the game, we can blame EW.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

(By the way, I think we can assume that Tom is not somebody whom she could have stunned last Night, and not who she apparently thought he was, right? In this case, I'm quite at a loss what to make of her vendetta against Agan. Any ideas?)

What do you mean with the first sentence?
Anyway it occurred to me that the wolves might have thought Inzil was Tom - after all sally clearly seemed to... at least if they decided to go by Shasta's plan. That would explain why Lottie is still alive, I was expecting her to die because of how EW singled her out.
As for her attack against me, the easiest explanation is that she thought I was actually a wolf, although I'm pretty sure the fact that I suspected her played a part in it.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Me neither. It seems like a bit of a reach on Agan's part, really.

If it looks odd to me, I rather point it out than regret it afterwards.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Unless I dreamed this, Agan said she was stunned the Night before.

Yes. EDIT: No, it was wilwa the night before, I was before that.

So I'd guess Sally did think Agan was Bombadil (whether rightly or wrongly ), but simply wasn't able to stun her last Night.

I don't think she would've attacked me the way she did if she had thought I was Tom. It would've made more sense for her to butter me up, just so I wouldn't get suspicious and check her.

[Aganzir]

Okay I'm now going to go through everyone's (at least if I have the energy) posts and see how they talked of Shasta.

OOC: Pitch, they miss you in Palantir of Fortune.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Agan

I don't think she would've attacked me the way she did if she had thought I was Tom. It would've made more sense for her to butter me up, just so I wouldn't get suspicious and check her.

Makes sense. I'm at a loss, though, with what could have made Sally-Wight go so heavily after someone just randomly. The thing is, it wasn't just strong suspicion, it was an absolute and aggressive conviction of Agan's furriness. I'm off for a walk now anyway, will try to give that some thought.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Sally stunned Zil last Night. It's in the narration.

Aw, you're right, I'd forgotten.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Unless I dreamed this, Agan said she was stunned the Night before.

So I'd guess Sally did think Agan was Bombadil (whether rightly or wrongly ), but simply wasn't able to stun her last Night.

I think wilwa said she was stunned the Night before yesterDay, and Agan said she was the Night before that, so sally could have stunned her last Night but didn't, hence my conclusion that sally was either wrong about Agan or changed her mind, or both. I brought it up because I thought it could help me see clearer about Agan, but as things are, it doesn't very much.

Agan - OK, buttering up would be a viable tactic, but I think she'd have wanted Tom dead before xe could get her, hence it looks to me like she thought it was you. But that might have been too obvious.

About the Alpha thing - Lottie's right that I generally wouldn't mind letting an experienced wolf like Shasta take the lead, but I don't know that we'd have exactly gotten on like a house on fire. Clashing personalities, I'm afraid.

Originally Posted by Agan

OOC: Pitch, they miss you in Palantir of Fortune.

Well, wilwa at least seems to have pity on them...

[Formendacil]

So... I came on the Downs approximately 3 hours ago, intending to post here, and completely got sidetracked by the genealogy of the sons of Eärendil, and then got distracted by a process of tangentially related ideas such that... I'm only here now, and with other things to do.

Hopefully, though, you expect nothing else from me at this point, given how the game has gone so far.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

This, though, is really interesting. Especially the first category. Shasta was quite consistent in suspecting both Agan and Eomer, and yet never voted either. I doubt both two are his fellows, that would be a very odd move from Shasta's part, but I'll be a bit surprised if neither of them is.

In my read-through of posts so far, this is what stuck out to me... largely because I tend to agree--although I'm a bit more willing than Greenie to think they could both be wolves, while conceding that one is, in fact, more likely.

In keeping then, with my yesterDay suspicions about Agan (namely that she was listed with me in Shasta's post for the purposes of exonerating her, convicting me, doing both, or just confusing the village), I'll lean in her direction, though Eomer is giving me bad vibes as well.

++ Aganzir

I may be on later... but I'm not committing to it.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Very interesting. Green posits that because Shasta had suspected Aganzir and myself without ever voting for us that it points to the guilt of one of us. I read her point thinking: "No-one will go for that, surely? Shasta was a blabbermouth and suspected a number of people; he can vote for only one per day."

For the record, I know I'm innocent and I believe Aganzir is innocent too (Shasta went strongly against Aganzir).

But immediately, two people buy into it. Nerwen votes for me, in an apologetic way no less. Alarm bells immediately go off. Then Formendacil chooses Agan -- I suspect to avoid accusations of bandwagoning.

Ai, ai! Kath might be innocent yet!

It's Green, Form and Nerwen for the gallows says I!

As an aside I fully expected to be a target for the wolves and their cobbler today, so heed my words should I die.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

it wasn't just strong suspicion, it was an absolute and aggressive conviction of Agan's furriness.

Who knows, maybe she wanted to look like the seer so you'd have lynched me and she would've got rid of a pain in the neck... I want to hear her reasons when the game ends.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I brought it up because I thought it could help me see clearer about Agan, but as things are, it doesn't very much.

If you're asking if I'm Tom - nope. However, I'm pretty sure I know who they are, and should they say so, I can share it with the rest of you (that's not forbidden, is it? ).

Also, I seriously consider voting for Form now. When he bothers to show up, he votes for me because Shasta mentioned him and me in the same post yesterday.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Loslote for Eomer

Wilwa for Pitch

Nerwen for Eomer

Form for Aganzir

[Aganzir]

FORM
He never talked of Shasta before yesterday, and then he dedicated several paragraphs to discussing what it means that Shasta mentioned him and me together (he suggests Shasta was shielding me). It looks funny because it didn't even occur me to suspect Form because of it ("Oh the dying wolf is just throwing names there."), and thus he looks quite jumpy (wanting to point it out before anyone else did). He voted for wilwa on day 1 because apparently entertaining trumps useful (this I find a possible cobbler hint).

KATH
Summarised Shasta's day 2 posts (along with everyone else's) and said she didn't like how Shasta jumped on a comment of Inzil's but didn't like how they tried to out the seer, either. Later she said Shasta was leaning guilty (as well as Nog, Inzil, EW & Volo): although his words had been taken out of context a lot, he focused on the seer too much and could be the cobbler. On day 3 she made a new summary but didn't have time for Shasta (and Form & sally). She ended up giving the decisive vote that lynched EW whose playing style she didn't like, and although she xed with a lot of votes, the situation was ultimately the same because in the last tally she saw, everyone was tied at 1. Based on how she talked of Shasta, she could be a wolf who had decided to put some pressure on a fellow, but she could as well be innocent. However, her vote for EW isn't too good-looking.

GREENIE
Unless I missed something, she doesn't even mention Shasta until day 3 (granted, she didn't post much, but still). Then, she hadn't ignored the possibility of him being a wolf (which she always does when he is one), and he looks ok. This would be a very convenient way to treat a fellow, but when you look at how she talked of us others, it wasn't much different. The same day, she made an analysis of EW and concluded he seemed consistent in his inconsistency and she was uneasy with how much he flip-flopped. In hindsight it's pretty obvious he was the seer - and it must have been obvious to the wolves. If Greenie is a wolf, having the guts to quote all EW's posts and conclude he looks slightly fishy is bravery that borders on idiocy (and I wouldn't put it past her - but she could have voted for him simply with "He's so quiet!"). She thought Shasta looked genuine, and voted for EW, tying him with me, Eomer and Zil (although she xed, so for all she knew, she was only tying him with me).

WILWA
Argues with Shasta on day 2 regarding his assumptions & suggestion of trying to figure out who the wolves attacked. It looks genuine, and I find it hard to believe they would've staged it. She considered voting for him but said she probably wouldn't because it was mostly a case of her not agreeing with him. I'm willing to bet she isn't a wolf. Of course she might still be the cobbler, but even that seems highly unlikely.

NERWEN
Comments a lot on the things Shasta says, but says precious little about him. Shasta's vote for Volo is mentioned as part of the group "nastily opportunistic".

PITCH
Shasta looked the best to him on day 1, after one single post. On day 2 he comments on Shasta's theory but doesn't really state on opinion on the people involved. It's not so much an argument but rather he just questions Shasta. Later, he wonders about Shasta (and Nerwen) who seemed to suggest Nog was the BW impersonating the seer. He says EW's vote isn't as bad as Shasta (and Lottie) made it look, but trying to lynch a supposed seer would be quite dangerous - however, EW might not have thought it through. He says he wouldn't mind getting rid of a submarine (EW) in lack of better options, but follows Shasta (who, he's inclined to think, is innocent) in saying he could vote for Zil which he does.

EOMER
Doesn't even mention Shasta before EW's death (but then, he was pretty quiet until then). Since then, Eomer is convinced Shasta is a wolf and doesn't consider other possibilities.

I'm not going to waste my time going through Lottie's posts because I'm quite sure she's innocent.

Nerwen, Eomer & Pitch all had a conveniently nonchalant attitude towards Shasta before EW's death.

The EW voters Greenie & Kath: Greenie's overall treatment of Shasta looks worse than Kath's, Kath's vote worse than Greenie's.

Form's worry about being mentioned by Shasta makes it look like he has a reason to think it should point at him... but apart from that, he's been so quiet it's much more difficult to place him than the others.

wilwa is the only person on the list who I think could not be a wolf.

It's quite hard to say who looks the most suspicious. I'd dare a guess both Greenie & Kath aren't wolves, at least... Just because lynching the seer who has dreamed of a wolf isn't the best-looking thing to do.

[Aganzir]

Also, we can afford to lynch an innocent today, but if we don't get a wolf or the cobbler tomorrow, we lose.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Also, to Ferny - you really should pay more attention to the hints that have been fired at you like ICBMs all game long. It's lucky we know who you are, but do get with the program, won't you?

This post bothers me. Is there a chance the wolves have actually managed to find the cobbler, or was Shasta just trying to confuse us and get us to waste our time trying to find possible cobbler hints? Because if the wolves know who the cobbler is and we lynch an innocent today, it only takes an ordo to vote for another ordo tomorrow and we lose.

My best bet at the moment is Form, simply because of some stuff he's said. The problem is, it's impossible to tell wolfish evil from cobblerish evil, and so many people look suspicious that they can't all be baddies.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Well, Agan, I'm happy to vote Form. I'm fairly confident he's evil (albeit his knowledge of family trees is exemplary ).

[Pitchwife]

D1
Mostly controversy with Agan and me about whether or not to lynch a suspected BW or leave them to Tom (What bothered me about her position here was that she was neglecting the danger that Tom might be mislynched or Nightkilled before he had a chance to do his job. Meanwhile, this point is luckily moot, but at the time I found it Wightish or wolvish. On the other hand, maybe she thought Tom couldn't be Nightkilled (our known innocent Zil did, too) and just didn't want the village to steel Tom's thunder.) Suspects me, mostly for our disagreement (mutual). Votes Agan to save wilwa and Glirdan whom she thought innocent, but doesn't really suspect Agan either. (?)

D2
Mostly argues with Shasta against his NogSeer-cum-BW theory (now known to have been a frame attempt, so this speaks for her), thinks Eomer a likelier Seer-cum-BW than Nog but wants to leave him to Tom. Thinks Nog and Shasta likely both innocent, wilwa and Zil feel genuine, could vote for a quiet player (most likely TEW) or me. Votes TEW because he's not saying much and what he's saying looks really off. (Not much to fault here so early in the game. Her vote a bit easy maybe, but going after quiet players was more or less common consensus that Day, with only one vote for a really loud player in the whole tally.)

D3
Conclusions from the Night-kill: Eomer more likely to be the BW, but only if Agan is evil; or Tom could already have hunted Eomer, so he might be a wolf instead, and in this case Agan probably not his packmate. (Eomer was rather commonly suspected on Day 2, and her thought process is logical here.)
Disagrees with TEW about Shasta trying to frame Nog (we now know that's what he was doing, but at the time several people (me included) agreed that it wasn't very likely). Not feeling good about me, me and TEW could be packmates (probably because I defended him). Still considering Eomer. Votes TEW for more or less the same reasons as the Night before. (Again, it of an easy vote, and with hindsight, TEWs blunt accusation of Shasta was obviously Seerish, but looking at my own voting on that Day I'm not one to talk here.)

D4
Takes apart Shasta's defense that TEW used his votes to hint at future dreams, is one of the first to vote him (looking pretty good). A list: Agan and Nerwen deniably good; wilwa, Greenie and Kath the same but not quite so good; Zil and Formy deniably evil, Eomer and me same but worse, sallyWight and Shastawolf undeniably evil. (No reasons given here. Part of the list is self-explaining from what she's said about people earlier - especially Agan's and Eomer's placements, which to some extent depend on each other, and mine, which I guess is based on her constant bad feelings plus my link to Shasta from D3 - , others not so much - the middle sections, and how Nerwen and Zil ended up where they did, when both had argued against Shasta's defense along with her and Nerwen had voted Agan, Lottie's other most trusted player, for two the last two Days.)

Conclusion so far: A lot of good reasoning mixed with some opinions that seem based more on hunches, not much reexamining of earlier conclusions (the whole Agan/Eomer matter), which you could also call consistency, I suppose. No obvious wolvish twists that I can put my finger on. One thing that stands out is that she's been quite constantly suspecting me but never votes me, but I rather think that's her being fair to me in my absence.
Taking in account TEW's possible dream hint, I'm more inclined to think her OK than not.

Update toDay:
Frankly, I'm not that happy with the way she uses Shasta's words on the gallows to further confirm her suspicion of Eomer and me. Lottie, this is not just because it's me, but it looks like you're only seeing what you want to see - like a self-fulfilling prophecy. Think about it, if you're truly innocent.


I intend to go on with Greenie, but with DL in less than two hours, I don't know if I'll have enough time toDay.

EDIT: x-ed with #501 down.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Well, Agan, I'm happy to vote Form. I'm fairly confident he's evil (albeit his knowledge of family trees is exemplary ).

Nice to know but I'm just afraid it would be too easy... Especially because I'm suspicious of you too. In any case I'm not voting quite yet, I want to see others post first.

And I admit my wish to lynch Form is not only because of how he's behaved the last two days but also out of spite (which might be dangerous at this stage).

[Aganzir]

Pitch was that really necessary? I mean, it's nice that I'm not the only one analysing posts and all, but to choose the one player the seer called OK?

[A Little Green]

All right, looks like it's about my bed-time. I was intending to do a proper list and have a look at a few people but some studying came on the way.

Originally Posted by Eomer

Very interesting. Green posits that because Shasta had suspected Aganzir and myself without ever voting for us that it points to the guilt of one of us. I read her point thinking: "No-one will go for that, surely? Shasta was a blabbermouth and suspected a number of people; he can vote for only one per day."

Fair point, and it's possible that he quite simply didn't have enough Days to vote for everyone he suspected. But with the two of you, he seemed to suspect you - especially Agan - more than the ones he actually ended up voting. Of course voting late as he usually did he would have to pick of the choices available at the time, but the thing is - suspecting a fellow wolf is a clever move from a wolf. Very clever. Voting a fellow wolf, especially one who has been under suspicion from others too, is really risky. The point I'm trying to make is that while it's entirely possible no wolvish connection exists between Shasta and one or both of you, it would also be very fitting if it did.


EDIT: x-ed with two Agans

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Pitch was that really necessary? I mean, it's nice that I'm not the only one analysing posts and all, but to choose the one player the seer called OK?

Maybe not, but I thought I remembered it was herself or Shasta who first suggested that he'd dreamed her and therefore didn't just want to rely on it; arriving at Day 4, I found Zil had mentioned it in his first post that Day, but at that point I was mostly done and thought I might as well finish it.

[A Little Green]

It's going to be Agan or Eomer for me toDay I think, as my logic has carried me only that far. My intuition would point me to voting someone no one even considers, maybe Nerwen or Wilwa, but since my logic says nothing of Nerwen and innocent of Wilwa I will certainly not vote either. ToMorrow, if I'm still alive, I should have a little more time to look at people. Hopefully.

So I'm going to go with

++ Eomer

because a) of the two I'm inclined to think one is a wolf, he is the one that looks like a more likely lynch, b) though Shasta's connection to Agan looks slightly worse (more consistently suspicious so the never-vote looks even weirder - though also, his suspicion of her is bold to an extent of being foolish as wolf-on-wolf), Agan looks otherwise more innocent, and c) there has been something bizarre about Eomer all through the game - something just doesn't sit right with him - but this last is no proper argument, just a feeling.

This is going to be the last from me toDay. Good night!


EDIT: x-ed with Pitch

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

The point I'm trying to make is that while it's entirely possible no wolvish connection exists between Shasta and one or both of you, it would also be very fitting if it did.

I can see your point and I don't think it's as far-fetched as Eomer suggested. However, it's also good for a wolf to have several suspects so you can just kind of decide who it's a good time to concentrate on each day (maybe in order to save a fellow or whatever)... But yeah, he never voted for either of us although there would've been a chance to lynch us both. It doesn't really affect my opinion on Eomer though, he looks suspicious enough on his own, but because I'm innocent, it's not entirely impossible he is, too.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Maybe not, but I thought I remembered it was herself or Shasta who first suggested that he'd dreamed her and therefore didn't just want to rely on it; arriving at Day 4, I found Zil had mentioned it in his first post that Day, but at that point I was mostly done and thought I might as well finish it.

Aww poor Pitch!

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Well, you're lynching the last innocent you can afford. At least you'll pay attention to my posts when I'm gone.

[Aganzir]

I'm feeling increasingly uneasy about Form, Greenie and Nerwen. "There are these two people, it's likely that one of them is a wolf, or even both." That's basically the same as "Okay, we lynch Eomer today and if he's innocent, we lynch Agan tomorrow." If Eomer turns out to be an ordo, I'd strongly recommend considering one of the aforementioned three tomorrow because they have all been pushing it (Nerwen the least).

With that, I'm starting to have doubts about Eomer's guilt, mainly because there seems to be a certain group that wants him dead. And because he always seems to look suspicious, regardless of his role.

Aieee.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I'm going to look like a fool if you're guilty, Agan, but I really believe you're innocent. And if that's the case, you've hit the nail on the head with that last post. Nerwen, Green and Form are my villains (it's possible that Kath can be exchanged for one of them but I'm leaning away from that now).

[Aganzir]

Lottie - Eomer
wilwa - Pitch
Nerwen - Eomer 2
Form - Agan
Greenie - Eomer 3

Left: Agan, Eomer, Kath, Pitch

I actually almost feel like trying Form instead of Eomer.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I'm going to look like a fool if you're guilty, Agan

It works the other way round, too. I'm going to be seriously mad if you're a wolf and I've almost lynched you before but try to save you now.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Are Kath and Pitch gonna sign in?