Werewolf LIII: The Republic

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

We all know Nerwen's smart but she continuously pays a little too much attention to advanced-level kill plotting to look convincingly innocent.

And that's it. I'm finished with my reread and I'm rather confident that our last wolf is Nerwen, who has fooled me very beautifully almost all the time and who has done some brilliant work as have her fellows. Cheers!

*sigh* I wish I could accept your congratulations, but alas! you're barking up the wrong tree.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Nerwen, I'm not going to repeat everything I've said considering Gil-lynch (well I doubt you assumed that anyway). But really, for me, it looks like the wisest course of action by far. I don't understand why don't people get it.

Okay, you're probably right. I really haven't had much sleep lately.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Lommy

For general profit, or possibly because wolf-Nerwen would be busy with RL (and see, she has been). Maybe she talked to her fellows and they deviced a plan of possibly lynching her to look good? Just a scenario.

That makes me think back to the WW game I modded when something similar happened. Nerwen had to drop out for RL reasons, but I think the Night before she contacted me she informed the wolves of the situation and the next Day the wolves (especially Boro) pushed for her lynching, but were unsuccessful. It's possible something like that happened here, though I also don't think it had to be just for RL reasons that a wolf-on-wolf suspicion (and possible lynching) could've been made.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I think Greenie looks innocent because of her slight frustration of Boro's seer reveal because she had a case against Noggie (which she explains when asked). It looks all very genuine.

That's what I initially thought about her reaction as well, but I don't want to take it too much into account as to possible innocence since it could be just a very good bluff.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I've been thinking about Kath's "lynch Gil" proposal: It has its merits, but... how much chance is there that he's the wolf? Is it worth throwing away a lynch on him if no-one thinks he's guilty?

I find this statement rather odd. Earlier toDay you kept saying, "What if he is the wolf?" But now that we're actually considering lynching Gil, you suddenly turn around and say, "What if he isn't the wolf?" Why the sudden change?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I find this statement rather odd. Earlier toDay you kept saying, "What if he is the wolf?" But now that we're actually considering lynching Gil, you suddenly turn around and say, "What if he isn't the wolf?" Why the sudden change?

Because first I was worried that everybody was just dismissing him. Then everybody decided to lynch him, and yeah, I worried about that too. Guess I'm a chronic worrier.

[Kath]

Nerwen the questions you asked about Gil were exactly what I was worrying about when Lommy first mentioned it. Try thinking it through either in your head or on screen, it seemed to help for me. For me it's basically a choice between ending the game with a chance of winning or ending the game without one. If we leave Gil alive and he either turns out to be the wolf or the wolf leaves him alive at Night then on our final Day we're going to end up in a situation where we have no votes and the game ends with a whimper and we lose. If we lynch him toDay then at least the end of the game will be interesting and we can have more say in it.

That's my reasoning behind it anyway.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Kath

Nerwen the questions you asked about Gil were exactly what I was worrying about when Lommy first mentioned it. Try thinking it through either in your head or on screen, it seemed to help for me. For me it's basically a choice between ending the game with a chance of winning or ending the game without one. If we leave Gil alive and he either turns out to be the wolf or the wolf leaves him alive at Night then on our final Day we're going to end up in a situation where we have no votes and the game ends with a whimper and we lose. If we lynch him toDay then at least the end of the game will be interesting and we can have more say in it.

That's my reasoning behind it anyway.

Yes, I get the point. It just seems a weird way to lynch.

[Thinlómien]

Is no one besides me and Brinn (and maybe Kath, kind of) doing anything productive toDay? It's useless to play more time if we can't use it...

[Thinlómien]

Anyone around, btw? Greenie's in the room next to me, that I know, but others?

[Thinlómien]

So, what people have been doing this far toDay

Brinniel - lynch speculating, providing quotes, analysing, main suspect atm: Nerwen
Gil-Galad - nothing
Greenie - (all talk just sort of general talk), main suspect atm: Brinn
Lommy - lynch speculating and rereading, main suspect atm: Nerwen
Kath - lynch speculating, main suspect atm: Brinn
Nerwen - mainly commenting with one-liners or questioning others' opinions, no main suspect

Based on this, Greenie and Nerwen seem either suspiciously uninvolved (the wolf would not need to find out stuff or get lynch things solved thoroughly with others) or busy.

Nerwen looks a bit fishy for voicing no suspicions. As if she was ready to join any bandwagon to save her own skin.

On the other hand, we can't clear the others because of having a main suspect. It's easy to pick one if you're not threatened yourself, or if there are two people equally suspected (this time, Brinn and Nerwen, it seems). Actually, I wonder why Nerwen just hasn't joined the "lynch Brinn" camp... Maybe because she's innocent after all?

Well it looks like my little summary was not of much assistance... it really didn't affect my opinions on people or anything, at most made me a tiny bit more suspicious of Greenie. Let's hope I cross-post with someone...

[Thinlómien]

Just out of interest, living people bolded, mods in italics:

the phantom 329
Boromir88 240
Nerwen 121
Thinlómien 116
mormegil 102
Rune Son of Bjarne 95
Brinniel 94
Shastanis Althreduin 92
A Little Green 85
satansaloser2005 85
Feanor of the Peredhil 80
Nogrod 79
Gwathagor 57
Ilya 54
Aganzir 44
Kath 41
Eönwë 33
Legate of Amon Lanc 33
Mithalwen 28
Gil-Galad 12
McCaber 11
THE Ka 9
Rikae 6
Diamond18 2
Formendacil 1

Phantom's post count is monstrous. But I'm not sure if I've ever had this many posts in a single game either.

Yes, you're allowed to ask why I'm doing stuff like this. I'm just talking because no one else is. Who knows if I will inspire someone to write something, to write whatever. Because we've fallen back into silence...

[Thinlómien]

Nerwen and Greenie, what do you think of lynching Gil? If you (still) don't approve of it, do you have any better ideas?

[Kath]

I'm around Lommy.

The more I've seen of Brinn toDay the less I have suspected her. Brinn I thought came across as very innocent in the floodposting she did, I don't believe a wolvish Brinn would speak out that much or that there wouldn't be anything jumping out as suspicious in all that talk. Oh and to answer a question of hers, that thing I said about lynching her for her long posts was indeed a joke.

Unfortunately that means I've lost pretty much the only suspect I have! I've been thinking about the double lynch idea but I really don't know who I would put on the lynching block with Gil.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Kath

Unfortunately that means I've lost pretty much the only suspect I have! I've been thinking about the double lynch idea but I really don't know who I would put on the lynching block with Gil.

If we make a double lynch we lose all we gain by lynching Gil. If we want to double lynch people, I suggest picking two people that might actually be wolves, not Gil.

[Kath]

I'm getting very tired and very confused - please explain?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Kath

I'm getting very tired and very confused - please explain?

If we double lynch, today is the final Day. So then we'd better get it right. And if we want to get it right, we don't lynch Gil.

If we just single lynch today, toMorrow is the final Day and Gil's death has simply bought us time and removed one more option from our lynch list.

Btw, assuming that we two and Gil are innocent, we have a 66% chance of getting it right if we double-lynch two of the others. Tempting, isn't it? But then again, if we get it wrong...

[Kath]

Random calculations here ... because I'm not sure you're right.

Alive:
Kath
Lommy
Nerwen
Greenie
Brinn
Gil

Gil and Nerwen die lynched.

Lommy dies by kill.

Alive next Day:
Kath
Greenie
Brinn

So wouldn't we still have toMorrow as well?

[Thinlómien]

Noogles is kind of pressuring me to get done with ww so that he can send his audio clips to Brinn...

So, Kath, what shall we do? Shall we lynch Gil as was planned? Or shall we gamble and go for a risky double-lynch? If we do that (I'm not sure if it's wise) I insist we lynch Nerwen at least.

The profit of the double-lynch is that we get to remove two unknowns while toMorrow we only get to remove one. One other player will be removed by then, yes, but it's most probably me whom no one suspects, so it won't really probably remove a lynch option in anyone's mind.

The profit of lynching Gil is that we still have more time and our lynch toMorrow will probably be better thought of than any ex tempore double lynch right now.

Still, I'm tempted... Aieee.

edit: xed with Kath

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Kath

Alive next Day:
Kath
Greenie
Brinn
So wouldn't we still have toMorrow as well?

Yes, but the problem is that the wolf can abstain from voting for a rep and thus no (innocent) reps can be elected (because one needs two votes to become a rep and one may not vote herself) and thus no one will get lynched and then the wolf will win after the following Night.

[Kath]

Oh I see! That makes sense.

Hmm so:

Alive:
Kath
Lommy
Nerwen
Brinn
Gil
Greenie

Lynch Gil.

Lommy dies by kill.

Alive:
Kath
Nerwen
Brinn
Greenie

Well I guess it makes sense. Enough people toMorrow to make it a worthwhile Day. It's going to be scary though - it almost makes me want to be killed toNight and leave it to the rest of you to freak out all through the last Day! I had enough of that last game.

[Thinlómien]

So you think we should lynch Gil?

Fine by me...

...but unless something new and important appears, I think Nerwen should really be lynched toMorrow.

[Kath]

Gil looks like a good option right now.

I'm not convinced about Nerwen ... but then I'm not convinced about anyone. Something that Greenie said earlier, when she was very against lynching Gil, brought her up on my suspicion list while Brinn went down it. I mean there are times where you look pretty suspicious as well Lommy, especially with your 'evidence' earlier on.

We're actually quite lucky in that we have to vote for Reps before we vote for a lynch on the final Day because we will have at least one innocent as a Rep with a say in things. That doesn't necessarily mean the say is going to be the right say but it gives us a fighting chance!

Anyway, voting time? I love how we clearly don't trust each other - we're both waiting for the other to vote first.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Kath

Anyway, voting time? I love how we clearly don't trust each other - we're both waiting for the other to vote first.

Actually I did trust you... up until that comment.

And I really typed a post where I voted Gil and said I should trust you if I'm so sure of Nerwen's guilt... but then I erased it all when I because I really became to unsure.

[Kath]

Really? 'Cause I really am waiting for you to vote. I have a background fear that I'm going to vote Gil, you're going to make it a double lynch on me and we're going to end up with that nasty situation toMorrow.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Kath

Really? 'Cause I really am waiting for you to vote. I have a background fear that I'm going to vote Gil, you're going to make it a double lynch on me and we're going to end up with that nasty situation toMorrow.

Well I would say "I won't do that" but you couldn't take my word for it...

What if we just promise to vote at the exact same minute (BD time)? Does that help you? It does not wuite help me but we need to do something, I can't sit here all night...

[Kath]

Do you know that's exactly what I was thinking.

11:55 by the BD clock? Or 55 minutes past whatever time it is where you are.

[Thinlómien]

Or what if we take it by chance? Like, decide that one of us is an even number and one of us is an odd number. Then, let's take some number we don't know (say, exact size of Portugal in square kilometers, or how many hits do you get by googling some word, or how many posts 'downer x has or so on) and check what's it. If it's an even number, the one who's even number has to vote first, if it's an odd number, the one who's odd number has to vote first. Makes sense?

edit: xed

[Thinlómien]

Okay let's make it 55. Agreed?

[Kath]

What the ...? Let's just vote together. It's far too late at night to be worrying about how large Portugal is in square kilometres or whatever you just suggested!

[Thinlómien]

It's 55 now...

[Kath]

++GIL

[Thinlómien]

Shall we make it .00 exactly since we seem not to have rreached an agreement yet?

[Thinlómien]

++Gil

[Thinlómien]

Haha I wasn't sure if we had an agreement or not but I'm glad it turned out fine.

[Kath]

Well! We just about got there!

Bring on toMorrow. It's going to be interesting.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Kath

Bring on toMorrow. It's going to be interesting.

Yup. I hope I won't die toNight because I'd hate to miss such a nerve-wrecking spectacle...

But well, if I die, keep these two things in mind:

1) important: vote against a filibuster just to be on the safe side

2) keep an eye on Nerwen, I really think it's her... but of course, don't be blind to other possibilities either

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I can post the results now and end the day early, or I can wait- but the results will be late in that case, as I'm supposed to be leaving in a few minutes.

Preference?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Gil-Galad was an ordo.

Given his lack of participation, I feel no regret in not taking the time to write him a narrative death.

M'Lady Wolf, send me a death.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I'm sorry! I got distracted.

Kath has died toNight. Everyone else is still alive.

Have at it.

Kath- my guilt shall not be assuaged until I give you an actual narration. Promise.

[Nerwen]

++No Filibuster.

Sorry, Fea.

EDIT: fixed highlight.

[Brinniel]

Okay, I'm reading through the thread once again, though this time I'm going through posts I haven't really looked through yet. I have my suspicions, but as it's our final decisive Day, I definitely don't want to settle for my current thoughts without doing more research as well as hearing from the rest of you.

More posts coming...