Sauron's battle strategy

Lets say Sauron had adopted a Hannibal-like battle strategy & sent plundering orcs & Trolls directly to Rivendell, Loth Lorien, Orthanc & to the Grey Havens rather than to Minas Tirith. This is in line with the Battle for Middle games to make an analogy. How would Middle Earth have changed if Sauron only attacked key targets? So long as enough soldiers stayed in Mordor to protect Sauron, it is possible that Middle Earth could have been obliviated & the Ring found even before the Company could have reached Minas Tirth.

[obloquy]

If he had had the power to do so with any hope of success, I don't see why he would have refrained. Making direct war on Rivendell and Lothlorien was completely out of reach until he recovered his Ring.

[The Might]

Well, since he was so sure that nothing could stop him (and one must admit his arrogance is well founded) he didn't want to send any small raiding groups, but to finish off all of his enemies situated in the east in one move - Dale, Lorien and Gondor. The others would then have fallen sooner or later.

The only mistake in his plan I see is letting the ways into Mordor so unguarded, and especially leaving Orodruin unguarderd; a small group of Orcs at the entrance would have been enough.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

To add something to this, Sauron's original plan was - at least according to Gandalf, but I am quite convinced he was right here - to attack Rivendell and Lórien (and maybe the Havens - they were something like a "last stand" and probably not much of a fortress; their role would be very similar to that of the havens of Brithombar&Eglarest in the First Age). The problem of course was that Minas Tirith needed to be made a target, if just because it was a "stand-alone" problem, it was the one "wordly" power to stand against Sauron. Not forgetting the fact that Sauron hated the descendants of Númenor, and we also know he was nail and teeth holding to the search for Isildur's heir, of whom he was afraid that still exists. His plans to assault Rivendell were halted by the return of the King under the Mountain, as we are told in the Appendices and also in the Unfinished Tales. My current D&D campaign is based on the idea of Sauron trying to prepare Angmar for further re-settling it with his hosts (hopefully none of my players is going to read this ), which was historically - well, maybe not proven; but largely suspected fact. I suggest to all of you who have interest in this to read "The Quest of Erebor" in the Unfinished Tales, I could quote here but technically half of the chapter is about it.

I actually believe that if Sauron was not provoked by Aragorn, or have not learned that the Ring was found, he would attack Lórien and Rivendell first. However, after he learned the Ring was found - and more, that there is Isildur's heir still living in Middle-Earth (and even more, that he has probably conquered Isengard), the logical conclusion was that the danger will come out of the remnants of Dúnedain, which meant Minas Tirith. It was necessary to strike the Men before they unite under the returned King, and before that King comes with Sauron's Ring to challenge his power (or that was at least what Sauron obviously thought).

But as I said, had none of this happened, Sauron would've, I'm convinced, focus more on Lórien and Rivendell, as Mansun suggested. Though protected by powers of the Rings, both of the Elven havens would fall in time, if exposed to concentrated attack. The main trouble with Rivendell was that it was a little "off-hand" and after the Kingdom under the Mountain was rebuilt, the campaign would've taken too much time. Though as we know even from the Appendices to LotR, even during the War of the Ring Sauron almost succeeded in inflicting terrible harm to the North. Had he had a little more time or luck, beating Dáin, Brand and Thranduil (by both the forces of the Easterlings and Dol Guldur) would've opened the passage to Eriador to the hosts of Easterlings (!) and it will be the Second Age all over again; but this time, it won't be the Númenoreans but just a few Rangers and all the Hobbits at the Stony Ford and Brandywine Bridge (wow, now that would be also a great idea for fanfic). Lórien would be crushed as well, or surrounded in a hostile world, till slowly, as a last bastion of Light, it would fade under the Orc assaults and coming of the Nazgul.

Gandalf sums up his opinions on the situation after the War of the Ring like this:

Originally Posted by The Quest of Erebor

The main attack was diverted southwards, it is true; and yet even so with his farstretched right hand Sauron could have done terrible harm in the North, while he defended Gondor, if King Brand and King Dáin had not stood in his path. When you think of the great Battle of Pelennor, do not forget the Battle of Dale. Think of what might have been. Dragon-fire and savage swords in Eriador! There might be no Queen in Gondor.

[The Might]

I believe Tolkien also says something like if Sauron had attacked the elves first the Quest would never have been completed, since the Fellowship would have lacked the so needed support, not to mention since the Orcs were all coming their way...I just can't remember where he says that.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by The Might

I believe Tolkien also says something like if Sauron had attacked the elves first the Quest would never have been completed, since the Fellowship would have lacked the so needed support, not to mention since the Orcs were all coming their way...I just can't remember where he says that.

That's all from the Quest of Erebor. But of course, I think it's not necessary to point this out; if Rivendell and Lórien fell, it is obvious that the Fellowship would have had no chance. I think this is the part you are looking for:

Resistance still had somewhere where it could take counsel free from the Shadow. How could the Ringbearer have escaped, if there had been no Lórien or Rivendell? And those places might have fallen, I think, if Sauron had thrown all his power against them first, and not spent more than half of it in the assault on Gondor.

Gandalf speaks about it in conclusion with the fact that the assault of the Council on Dol Guldur, though unsuccesful (for Sauron escaped to Mordor), was still important, because if left alone, Sauron would surely soon use Dol Guldur as a base of attack against Lórien.

By the way, all these things are said by Gandalf to explain the fact why he wanted to help Thorin with his quest. He was afraid of the unguarded East, and of the Dragon, so he wanted to help to re-establish the Kingdom under the Mountain when the possibility appeared.

[William Cloud Hicklin]

It seems that Sauron's older plan was a "northern strategy", but it hinged in great part on making use of Smaug. Bilbo, Thorin and Bard kind of scotched that idea; and Sauron's principal base of operations was moved from Mirkwood south to Barad-dur thanks to the White Council.

Tolkien was also at least generally aware of logistics- the ease of an operation depends enormously on the length of one's supply lines. Minas Tirith was closest to Mordor (and the supposed capital of the new Ringlord).

Rivendell was a long way away and on the other side of the Mountains, and so pretty much unapproachable so long as Lorien stood and the Gap of Rohan held, and Gondor prevented his "marching in power along the coasts" as Boromir put it. Sauron thought he was dealing with each of these problems. He assaulted Lorien (apparently from Dol Guldur): this army was repulsed and deflected into northern Rohan, where the Ents destroyed it.

If the Nazgul were capable of reaching the Shire, it should be possible for Sauron to send a greater host, including the Mouth of Sauron & archers with great speed on horseback to attack key targets.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Mansun

If the Nazgul were capable of reaching the Shire, it should be possible for Sauron to send a greater host, including the Mouth of Sauron & archers with great speed on horseback to attack key targets.

You mean during their hunt for the Ring? No way. The Ringwraith themselves had a big problem with crossing the river unseen; Sauron had to make assault on Osgiliath to enable them to pass to the other shore. In the Unfinished Tales we read:

Originally Posted by The Hunt for the Ring

The Lord of Morgul therefore led his companions over Anduin, unclad and unmounted, and invisible to eyes, and yet a terror to all living things that they passed near. It was, maybe, on the first day of July that they went forth. They passed slowly and in stealth, through Anórien, and over the Entwade, and so into the Wold, and rumour of darkness and a dread of men knew not what went before them. They reached the west-shores of Anduin a little north of Sarn Gebir, as they had trysted; and there received horses and raiment that were secretly ferried over the River.

It was important for them to cross the River unseen. The only possibility to cross Anduin was at Osgiliath or at the Undeeps, but a host was not capable across any of them unnoticed; and either way, there were miles of Rohan and the Gap of Isen to pass (there was no other way; passing through the Mountains would be unimaginable). And that meant confrontation with the Rohirrim and/or Saruman when noticed.
Also, it was speed what Sauron needed: both speed and secrecy. That was what only the Ringwraith could do.
And last and the most important: Sauron would not entrust the quest for the Ring to no one else but his most trustworthy servants; and maybe even Mouth of Sauron was not the one to be trusted in that matter - after all, he still had (or better maybe "was capable of having") free will. But even if Sauron sent him with the Ringwraith (not that he probably won't use Mouth's skills better at home; rallying armies, diplomacy talks with Southron kings and Easterling chieftains etc.), he probably won't allow him to bring along a squad of followers: Sauron won't entrust them with such a task.
It's all summed up here:

Originally Posted by The Hunt for the Ring

At length [Sauron] resolved that no others would serve him in this case but his mightiest servants, the Ringwraiths, who had no will but his own, being each utterly subservient to the ring that had enslaved him, which Sauron held.

[The Might]

At first not, but later Sauron interestingly did use lesser minions for the task of finding the Ring. After the defeat of the Nazgul he chose not to send them directly against the Fellowship, but to keep them hidden, and have them command a group of orcs led by Grishnakh. Even in this case it was not a large group, but only a small taskforce. Throughout Grishnakh's mission he was constantly instructed by the Nazgul, showing that Sauron still hoped for secrecy. He could have sent a large host, and that might have actually been better in the end, but he wanted Rohan and Isengard to know as little about this as possible.

Probably this was the wrong decision, sending the Ringwraiths would have probably meant death for Eomer and his men, and who knows if Rohan would have been so strong afterwards...but that's another story.

Anyway, sending the Ringwraiths seems the best solution, since unlike Orcs they could feel the presence of the Ring, and in the beginning it was only they that could find it easily despite its unknown location.
Also, other minions would never have received such helpful information from Saruman as the Wraiths did (UT).
And I am not sure what you mean by attacking key targets?
MoS and archers on horseback attacking Hobbiton? lol ...funny but inefficient

[Selmo]

Originally Posted by Mansun

Lets say Sauron had adopted a Hannibal-like battle strategy & sent plundering orcs & Trolls directly to Rivendell, Loth Lorien, Orthanc & to the Grey Havens rather than to Minas Tirith.

Sauron did attack Lorien, the Elves of Mirkwood, the men of Dale and the Dwarves of the Lonely Mountain, with some success. Galadriel's elves were contained, Tharanduril's elves were slowly being driven northward with great losses, Dale was over-run and the Dwarves were forced to retreat underground.
All this occured at the same time as the attack on Gondor.

Sending armies against The Havens and Rivendell without subduing Gondor and Rohan was imposible. The lands between the Gap of Rohan and the North of Eriador were empty. Sauron's forces would need continuous, very large and very vulnerable supply chains to survive.

Sauron didn't attack Minas Tirith earlier because he was relying on troops from the East that took time to gather. Had he struck at other targets before he had his full strength available, Gondor could have harried his forces as they moved North, reducing their chances of success.

Had Sauron adopted Hannibal's tactics he may have achieved the same results as Hannibal. By not taking Rome when he had the chance, Hannibal, in the end, failed, despite his sucesses in other parts of the Empire.
.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Selmo

Sauron didn't attack Minas Tirith earlier because he was relying on troops from the East that took time to gather. Had he struck at other targets before he had his full strength available, Gondor could have harried his forces as they moved North, reducing their chances of success.

And let's not forget that what Sauron did was already attacking earlier than planned. All that because of the events with Saruman and the provocation of Aragorn via Palantír. I think that's pretty clear from the end of the Two Towers and the beginning of RotK.

[The Might]

But as I said...did it really matter to him what he attacked first?
No.
Because he was 100% that nobody would even think about destroying the Ring, but would rather try use it against him. So from his point of view no matter what his enemies tried, he would still have defeated them eventually.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by The Might

But as I said...did it really matter to him what he attacked first?
No.
Because he was 100% that nobody would even think about destroying the Ring, but would rather try use it against him. So from his point of view no matter what his enemies tried, he would still have defeated them eventually.

Actually, it did matter. I can't remember the exact quote, but we know he was still able to feel fear. He feared that, if given enough time, Isildur's heir would be able to learn how to wield the Ring appropiately, and summon a host large enough to make things very hard for Sauron. Not to mention that if someone such as Saruman would have gotten the Ring, things would've looked rather bleak for Sauron.

Therefore, it did matter who he attacked first. He believed Aragorn to have The Ring. First of all, I'm sure he feared that the heir of Isildur might be able to overthrow him, like Isildur did in the past. Second, he knew that while Aragorn had it, it was the "lesser evil" of the other possibilities. If Saruman or Gandalf had laid their hands on it, he would've been in trouble.

That's why Aragorn's looking into the Palantir is such a crucial moment in the books. IF he had not done so, Sauron might've kept his forces in reserve for a longer time and Frodo would have been found. Furthermore, if Aragorn had not tried attacking the Black Gate, the hosts that were camped across the plains before Mt. Doom would've never moved and once again, Frodo would have been caught.

[Nazgûl-king]

Sauron probably would have if he could; I think he was waiting to get the ring before going after some of the stronger areas held by those opposed to him in Middle-earth. Though he did go after Lorien, Mirkwood, and Dale/Lonely Mountain, at the same time as his attack on Gondor, and in a certain sense he also went after Rohan (through Saruman).

I agree with Selmo, that had Sauron adopted Hannibal's tactics, he probably would have met with the same results.

[Imperica]

Originally Posted by Farael

He feared that, if given enough time, Isildur's heir would be able to learn how to wield the Ring appropiately, and summon a host large enough to make things very hard for Sauron.

Therefore, it did matter who he attacked first. He believed Aragorn to have The Ring. First of all, I'm sure he feared that the heir of Isildur might be able to overthrow him, like Isildur did in the past. Second, he knew that while Aragorn had it, it was the "lesser evil" of the other possibilities.

When did Sauron believe that Aragorn had The Ring? If this was so then the Nazgul wouldn't of been searching for Baggins, the Shire, and Hobbits... And I highly doubt that Sauron thought that a mere Man such as Aragorn, despite his lineage, would be able to appropriately wield The Ring and even if this was so The Ring would of betrayed him, as it did Isildur.

[William Cloud Hicklin]

From the time Aragorn revealed himself to him in the Palantir, at the Hornburg. This was an explicit part of the strategy: reread "The Last Debate." According to Gandalf, in the rash assault on the Morannon Sauron would see "the arrogance of the new Ringlord."

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Imperica

When did Sauron believe that Aragorn had The Ring? If this was so then the Nazgul wouldn't of been searching for Baggins, the Shire, and Hobbits... And I highly doubt that Sauron thought that a mere Man such as Aragorn, despite his lineage, would be able to appropriately wield The Ring and even if this was so The Ring would of betrayed him, as it did Isildur.

Like WCH (sorry, I won't even pretend to spell that one correctly otherwise) said, it was an explicit part of their strategy in the later parts of RoTK. Furthermore, I never said that Sauron thought Aragorn had it all along, but couldn't Aragorn have gotten it from Baggins? Not only Gollums are willing to kill, maim or steal for a chance at owning the Ring.

And Aragorn was not a "mere man" by any means or meassure we can think of, as it was proven repeatedly in the books, and even more so when one reads about his exploits before the time of LoTR. So why wouldn't Sauron fear him? Aragorn may not have needed to control the full weight of the Ring, he had plenty of natural skill. If that was to be enhaced by Sauron's ring then who knows what might've happened?

But of course, this is all mere speculation as we know that Aragorn would have never used it. A knowledge Sauron did not have, as it is said often in the books that Sauron is very shrewd, but he assumes other people share his values and that no-one would willingly reject the Ring.

[Tar-Meneldur]

Just a What if?

Now, what if a coordinated attack from both Isengard and Mordor took place, instead of a singular attack from one of each at different times, would the outcome change in favor of Sauron? I know that Gondor did not give aid to Rohan, but Rohan did give aid to Gondor, which chould have proven a fatal blow to Gondor had Rohan been held down.

An attack of such size from two side would have tossed both sides into making them look back and forth due to the fact that if one fell the other surly would fall. The worry of such a thing would make the other lose valuable mental focus of the battle at hand. Now still I think Théoden would have moved his forces to Helms Deep, but Gandalf would have been having to deal with Minas Tirith because he knew the value it had to all humans.

The elves were a matter of their own, if there was an attack on Lórien from Dol Guldur it would have proven fatal to Sauron because his main focus would have be to the South, not the North. To control the lower Anduin would have helped Sauron gain a major point that would have forced any human forces to cross it, which would have heaped the number of humans dead, and would have been to risky to do with Isengard still in power as a back up.

From the lower land Sauron would move up and take Erebor therefore taking all the Anduin, which would have kept him safe from attack anywhere West of him the only way to attack him now would have been to attack from the North via the Grey Mountains. Yet that would be risky due to the fact that any forces would have to head up so far North were the cold would put a damper on the fight left in them.

Please tell me that I made so sense out of this. Also tell me what you think of the “What if?” case.