Werewolf XXXII: The Lost Age

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I actually don't, right now; I need to take a bath before mom starts the dishwasher. Gimme a couple hours (unless Night's already started), and I will.

[Gil-Galad]

well better save it for next day, for i must be off tonight and i won't e able to cehck till night begins...

[The Sixth Wizard]

Sorry, I haven't been very active today, because it was (duh duh duh duh...) my Birthday. I will be more active tomorrow, though I was reading the posts and everything today.

I think I'll vote for...

[The Sixth Wizard]

I still suspect Rikae, Nogrod seems innocent as he is playing a bit like last game. Roa actually looks a bit strange, the rest I don't know. My GOD I'm undecided. I guess I should go for the most suspicious, Rikae.

I agree with:

Originally Posted by Esspiem

Accusing people based on banter, then very defensive about it. Throwing accusations around with little to back them.

So my vote will go with Rikae.

And I better say summat to Gil...

Wow... also i do have the seventh highest post count on the downs too...

Yet you still haven't learned how to use the shift key! I only voted for you yesterday because I thought it a better idea than Rikae. I'm more suspicious of Rikae today though.

[Macalaure]

So that's how it looks like when both Nogrod and SPM suffer from insomnia.


Anyway:

Originally Posted by Boro

Though you will see that I consistently was on Legate's case yesterday, I voted for Legate, and I don't think that's going to change today.

Boro, you are aware that you wrote that at a time when Legate hasn't even posted (and still hasn't)?


Kitanna's case of Rikae looks a little knee-jerk to me. Though I'm definitely not saying Rikae is innocent, I'd like to echo Roa and say that the reasons against her that have been given so far don't look too convincing. In fact, they made me rethink my opinions on those who stated them.


Concerning SPM and Nogrod, I'm leaning more towards SPM being the evil one out of the two. They both make bad cases against Rikae, but Nogrod's seems more confused while SPM's has a sneakiness to it.

I wonder why SPM calls Nogrod's vote a safe vote. With so many votes not given, the fake votes of the vampires and the course of the suspicions near the deadline, I too thought we had a good shot at lynching Legate.

And what was the point behind SPM's post count?

I don't want to start a pointless Lynch Seer debate, but I disagree with this:

Originally Posted by Espiem

We should bear in mind that the Lynch Seer might be a Vampire although, in those circumstances, he or she is only likely to post a riddle if the lynchee is a fellow Vampire (and, even then, it would be very risky for them). It is possible, if the lynchee is innocent, that a Vampiric Lynch Seer might post a riddle if he or she is sufficiently certain that the lynchee will name an innocent. However, I think that a Lynch Seer who posts a riddle will, in most cases, be innocent.

It follows that it will be dangerous for a Lynch Seer to post the riddle (and this will be exacerbated given our agreed approach to post our votes, since these may be compared to the Lych Seer‘s figures the next Day, if the Lynch Seer survives the Night). For those of us who are ordos, however, this should not be a problem.

Obviously, an innocent Lynch Seer should only post the riddle if they are relatively confident that the lynchee is not a Vampire. Similarly, the lynchee whose riddle is posted, if innocent, should think carefully before naming a victim to take with them.

Unless a vampire (who has a better idea about who the actual lynchee is than innocents do!) has a reason to fear for himself or one of his companions, I don't see why they shouldn't post the riddle. For them it's nothing but a calculated risk to have another innocent killed.
If the lynched is a fellow vampire on the other hand, then I'm sure the evil Lynch Seer won't let him/her have a kill, because it would make the evil Lynch Seer himself look bad.
If Volo chooses the Lynch Seer random, then it's trivially much more probable that he is innocent...
And in order to have a suspicion on whether the lynched one is evil or not, the Lynch Seer will first have to figure out who the lynched individual was. If the voting is close, that's guesswork, because the riddles don't seem to be too simple.

[Thinlómien]

Happy birthday, Sixth!

I'm growing slightly worried about Mac. He seems to be slipping under everybody's radar. Nobody's suspecting him, nobody's almost even talking about him. How is this possible? I understand people let Celuien-voters slip under their radar at this phase, but Mac is a Legate-voter - a group I'm fairly sure at least one vampire is hiding in. I don't think Mac is very suspicious, but I'm worried of him slipping under the radar, especially as he's been more silent than usually - is he trying to contribute to his slipping under the radar by this?

Originally Posted by Sauce

It is possible, if the lynchee is innocent, that a Vampiric Lynch Seer might post a riddle if he or she is sufficiently certain that the lynchee will name an innocent.

I agree here. And I think a vampire lynch seer might post the riddle even if s/he wasn't even sure who the lynchee was to take with her/him - we've seen backstabbing and double-bluffing wolves before, haven't we? So I don't think it's very wise to draw conclusions from the lynch seers' actions, or at least one must be careful when doing it.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So you kind of wish to say that I'm suspicious because I make a suggestion of looking at another direction for a while but you still manage to pick a few from my list to look after as well...

No, I don't. I think it's a good thing to take into account and (to some level) suspect everyone. It just seems to me that you're quite forcefully attacking at all directions yet not concentrating on making a solid case against anyone. Doesn't look very innocent to me.

(And by the way, Nogrod, I've not said let's not lynch the silent people. In fact, if I don't have any serious-ish suspects and there's no rule about modfire, I will most probably vote some inactive player - Sleepy, Glirdy or Xyzzy..)

Nogrod and Roa both worry me. I mean, they're both smart, reasonable players. However, in this game they've both been making more or less weak cases and then accused each other of making weak cases. I don't think this is very normal of them. And I can't help thinking that a vampire-Noggie and a vampire-Roa might co-operate in this way...

Originally Posted by Sauce

Apart from her blind spot on Rikae, I see nothing to concern me about her.

Well, to state it, I don't find Rikae particularly innocent. Her weird responses to your questions toDay do make me wary of her. Yet I don't see why are you and some other people so very suspicious of her. I think she's worth watching, but I don't think she screams a vampire.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

And as you're not to believe my word on it (now why would you?) just ask yourself the question would anyone sane enough speak and act (=vote) like I have done if I were a Vampire? There are so many easier ways to accomplish the thing...

Yes. Anyone who's been a baddie at once knows that it's not a simple thing and anyone who's played werewolf a lot *coughyoucough* should know that baddies do the most astonishing and unreasonable- and unsafe-seeming things.

Menel, in your post #233 you seem to think that Eomer said that he had not case against Kit means that he did not suspect her. I think that's not a very good conclusion. One can be suspicious of someone without making a case against him/her. This was only to point a fault in Menel's logic - personally I interpret Eomer's posts the way he wasn't (at leats a lot) suspicious of Kitanna himself.

edit: xed with Mac - glad to see him around

[Thinlómien]

Tha day's to end quite soon, many people have been very silent and I have almost no clue who to vote. Nice, eh?

SPEAK UP SILENT PEOPLE!

[Rikae]

Yes please. And, if I could ask a small favor...would the people who intend to vote for me please post here before they do?

[Rikae]

All right, I guess that pretty well outed me anyway...

I am the seer.

I only have an ordo now, let me have one more dream (if the ranger is agreeable).

I'm voting for either Legate or SPM most likely.

[Thinlómien]

Damn. Somehow this situation seems all too familiar!

[Rikae]

Yeah...I kind of miss being an ordo. In the last four games I've been: Wolf, Seer, Ranger, Seer.

[Rikae]

But at least I made it to day two this time...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I didn't suspect Kitanna. I chose her purely because she had made only one post and no-one had really mentioned her. This meant that the so-called 'Kitanna-suspicion' would have started with me, and allowed others to jump on it.

I haven't commented too much on it, though I did vote for Celuien, because others have been all too willing to discuss the ins and outs of it.

Celuien had indeed commented on Kitanna's post before my scheme, and while it was not exactly a major point that Celuien made, I think it's possible that Rikae could have been referring to this. And so she mistook me for Celuien, yadda, yadda.

I keep switching back and forth on Nogrod. I think he defends himself too much against all accusations. He seems to be panicking a bit. But then SPM and Roa (especially those two) are pushing his buttons.

Right now I'm confused about the number of votes and this phantom Celuien voter. Let me go check that now.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Rikae

But at least I made it to day two this time...

Poor you. (And poor us if you're really the seer, which I'm inclined to believe since I don't see why would a vampire-Rikae bluff this way at this phase of the game...)

edit: xed with Eomer

[Thinlómien]

(of course I was not taking into account the possibility of a more believable contesting claim there... the appearing of such is possible even though I doubt it)

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Hrm.

Can't stay for this discussion unfortunately. One quick thought about the 'Celuien 5 votes/only 4 accounted for' saga:

Maybe a vampire said that he/she would vote for a fellow vampire in public, but then actually cast his/her real vote for Celuien. In that case, look for pairs of voters and whom they voted for.

Must dash, sorry if that doesn't make sense (I haven't thought it through perfectly). I'll try and get back on the thread later but I might just be forced to hack someone's email account ( ). I have no idea who to vote for right now. Sorry. Maybe that lazy Ranger...

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Maybe a vampire said that he/she would vote for a fellow vampire in public, but then actually cast his/her real vote for Celuien. In that case, look for pairs of voters and whom they voted for.

Did I read this completely wrong, or are you saying that the vampires can vote?

[Aganzir]

...but Eomer's post caught my eye, and I had to ask.

I'm sorry I have been relatively silent. There's been a huge amount of schoolwork (and will be more after the May Day holiday has ended), and I haven't had too much time for computer. The other reason is that I'm quite new to this and don't have many ideas - and usually, when I finally make it to the Downs, everything I was going to say is already said. There are so many players that it's also a bit difficult to remember everything I've been thinking about them.
I will try to be more active.

Now, I'm going to sum up my thoughts about others. I don't have any idea who to vote for today, and I hope this will help me to decide. I'll be back with a post soon.

[Kath]

Just to warn you, I may not be able to be here exactly on the deadline, so you're all on your honour to stop talking at 3PM, which is an hour and 10 minutes away by my clock. Hopefully I will be here, this is a just in case.

[Rikae]

All right, I'm sending in a vote for

++Legate

And I suppose I will dream of either SPM, Nogrod or Roa tonight...(any suggestions?)

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Rikae

eah...I kind of miss being an ordo. In the last four games I've been: Wolf, Seer, Ranger, Seer

awww it must be so hard on you actually being allowed to play gifted roles, just imagine the bliss of those who play countless of games, but never get to be a gifted. . .

anyways I find what Roa says about Durelin and Nogrod in post something. . .anyways I must do a lot of quick reading to decide who to vote for.

[Nogrod]

Oh my...

So without a contesting claim I'm going to trust you Rikae. How familiar this is, the gifteds look like vampires...

But happily the ranger probably is able to cover you toNight and then at least another of possible dreamees can be saved the next Night.

With a village of this size it's a thin comfort but well, better than nothing.


Then again I must joint the gang who are pretty unsure about whom to vote toDay as I don't think Rikae an option anymore, toDay that is.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Nogrod and Roa both worry me. I mean, they're both smart, reasonable players. However, in this game they've both been making more or less weak cases and then accused each other of making weak cases. I don't think this is very normal of them. And I can't help thinking that a vampire-Noggie and a vampire-Roa might co-operate in this way...

Were we the wolves one day... *sighs* ... we would build up such a presentation... not this mess we seem to have right now.

Now where are you Legate? I would really like to hear more from you...

Voting for the lazy partners is an option to me as well...

(I need to go shopping as the shops close at the dealine hour here but I'll be back with hopefully something to say actually... hopefully)

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Kath

Just to warn you, I may not be able to be here exactly on the deadline, so you're all on your honour to stop talking at 3PM, which is an hour and 10 minutes away by my clock. Hopefully I will be here, this is a just in case.

No Kath. It's two hours... Please.

[Rikae]

Clearly it's five hours.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Clearly it's five hours.

So you don't agree with Nogrod's (and my) conception of the deadline?

[Rikae]

According to what Kath said, I get to talk for five more hours (though it won't be much fun talking to myself)!

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Well, then Nogrod and Lommy actually have 11 hours still if. . .I am quite sure we should think of it as in GMT

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Rune

anyways I find what Roa says about Durelin and Nogrod in post something. . .anyways I must do a lot of quick reading to decide who to vote for.

Err, sorry what did you mean by this? <- this is soon to beacome my fave smilie, I see...

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Voting for the lazy partners is an option to me as well...

For me too since I have pretty much no idea who I think is a vampire. Of the silent ones I'd prefer to lynch Xyzzy, since he might be active enough to avoid the modfire, but passive enough to leave no tracks of any kind and because the few things he has said aren't very innocentish...

edit: xed with Rikae and Rune... haha

[Meneltarmacil]

Well, the deadline is creeping up and I may as well vote. As I was apparently wrong about Rikae, I've voted for Boromir88, one of my other suspects whom I've listed reasons for earlier.

[Thinlómien]

The correct deadline can be seen from the time stamp of this post of Volo's
http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...&postcount=113

(Just if anyone's still confused...)

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I was just saying that when reading through the post Roa's was the one that jumped to my attention and that in a good way as I found it very well constructed.

I find the points made about Nogrod and Durelin in post 229 are worth noticing and I for one will take it in to consideration.

The thing is I always have a hard time figuring Dureling out, actually I have never tried to truly suspect her to be confident of her innocens. It just makes it easier when other people have some valid points as I am clearly not capable of producing any my self.

anyways I was thinking about voting for Menel once more or maybe a non-contributer. . .Of course I could also see who the most realistic candidates are and base my desicion on that and another possibility is to vote for Gil with the reasoning "He speaks too much"

[Thinlómien]

I suspected Menel yesterDay and still do to some extent, but I just feel that I can't judge him just yet... Maybe tomorrow when there's been more posts from him I can form a clearer picture of him.

Is there anyone else than me who might be interested in voting xyzzy today? Because it'd be pointless to go on a solo crusade against him and waste a vote.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I'm growing slightly worried about Mac. He seems to be slipping under everybody's radar. Nobody's suspecting him, nobody's almost even talking about him. How is this possible? I understand people let Celuien-voters slip under their radar at this phase, but Mac is a Legate-voter - a group I'm fairly sure at least one vampire is hiding in. I don't think Mac is very suspicious, but I'm worried of him slipping under the radar, especially as he's been more silent than usually - is he trying to contribute to his slipping under the radar by this?

Ehm, what?

Lommy, either you have a point or two against me or you don't.

If you do, I'd be pleased to hear them, if you don't, then why do you say a completely unreasoned "I don't think he's suspicious, but he might slip under the radar" as the first paragraph of your post?

You start to puzzle me.


And now we're about to lose our seer so early. Especially in this game, where there is so little knowledge, this is a bad thing.

Originally Posted by Rikae

And I suppose I will dream of either SPM, Nogrod or Roa tonight...(any suggestions?)

Well, if you're asking, I would take El Saucepan Hombre.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

hmmm so far all I have seen xyzzy doing is making weird cases against me, but I don't know how suspiciouse that is. . .

and Rikae I would take Nogrod or Roa as your last dream.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Lommy, either you have a point or two against me or you don't.

I guess you didn't understand me. I was not saying that I find you suspicious. (If you want to know, you're on my "grey zone" right now.) I was just saying that I find it worriesome that you seem to be slipping under everybody's radar.

[Boromir88]

I only have an ordo now, let me have one more dream~Rikae

Would you care to share who that ordo is? I think any known innocent at this point is a great help, but it's up to you.

And I suppose I will dream of either SPM, Nogrod or Roa tonight...(any suggestions?)

Keep that to yourself and make the decision yourself. With the ranger protection the vampires won't be going after you, but if they know who you're going to dream of they will be going after your dream.

Yes, Mac, I am well aware that Legate hasn't posted yet today. Is there a reason I've missed? I checked briefly through the admin thread but didn't see anything. And Legate not posting isn't going to change my mind especially now that Rikae (my other likely vote receiver) is the seer.

Anyway, tomorrow I think Nogrod and SPM will be getting looked at more by me.

[Boromir88]

And just as I say this

Keep that to yourself and make the decision yourself. With the ranger protection the vampires won't be going after you, but if they know who you're going to dream of they will be going after your dream.

Mac gives a name

[Aganzir]

Gil: He's been speaking quite much, and mostly sense. I think he's probably innocent, but he's not on the top of my probably innocent -list.

Shasta: He stopped roleplaying and started speaking after some had expressed concern about him. It's maybe a good thing, and it wouldn't have been very clever to continue in-character, as it's easier to be sensible when not roleplaying. I don't have an opinion of my own about the Shasta-Legate connection, so it's maybe better that I don't start speaking about it. Slightly suspicious, maybe innocent.

Spm: I can't say anything about him - he's made good points, but others have also found some things he has said suspicious. I'm afraid he's a player who I would never catch, were he a vampire.

Boro: I'm not very concerned about him at the moment. There hasn't been anything eye-catching in his posts.

Mac: It's really difficult to say anything about him.

Menel: I'm a little concerned about him. Something in his posts just struck me, though I can't define what it actually is.

Rikae: She's been suspected a lot, and I understand why, but still I couldn't see her as a vampire, not even before she revealed herself to be the seer.

Legate: It's hard to say anything. I'm more inclined to classify him as "slightly suspicious" than "probably innocent".

Sleepy: Not much to say about him.

Nogrod: The other player who I surely wouldn't catch. Spm's & Nogrod's reasoning is on a much higher level than mine.

Rune: He's a difficult one. I can't say anything about him. He's not suspicious enough that I would vote for him today, though.

Sixth: I think he's more probably an innocent than a vampire.

Kitanna: It's hard to say anything about her, but I'm inclined to believe she's rather innocent than a vampire.

Xyzzy: He hasn't actually said anything. I think he's voted with quite vague grounds. Slightly suspicious.

Di: I think she's more probably innocent than a vampire. She looks quite genuine.

Roa: She looks quite innocent to me. She was one of Celuien-voters, and if we trust the voting records, all of us (Lommy, Eomer, Roa, me) + an extra-voter who didn't reveal him/herself should be innocent.

Eomer: I can't see any reason why he would be lying (about the lynch seer thing, about his "attack" against Kitanna). Celuien-voter.

Lommy: She looks quite innocentish. She, too, a Celuien-voter.

Durelin: Probably innocent.

Glirdan: Has he posted anything? No?


While reading the thread, this caught my eye:

Originally Posted by Xyzzy

I'm only mildly suspicious of Rikae, but perhaps the seer could decide for us...

I'm not sure if it means anything, but it could be interpreted that Xyzzy is hinting he knows Rikae is the seer. This could make Xyzzy either the Vampire seer or the Shade. I don't think this is very probable, but maybe it's worth mentioning.

I don't think I will vote for anyone who voted for Celuien yesterday. It's quite unlikely that a vampire would be hiding in this group. At the moment I think I will vote for either Menel or Xyzzy.

edit: x'd with many

[Boromir88]

Would you care to share who that ordo is? I think any known innocent at this point is a great help, but it's up to you.~myself

actually scratch that Rikae, it's better you reveal all your info tomorrow

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Would you care to share who that ordo is? I think any known innocent at this point is a great help, but it's up to you.

Keep that to yourself and make the decision yourself. With the ranger protection the vampires won't be going after you, but if they know who you're going to dream of they will be going after your dream.

Yes and if she reveals the ordo, the ordo will be dead by tomorrow. . .if she does not reveal the name we might have 3 known innocents. (if you count Rikae)