Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXIII: Journey to Hy Brazil

[Anguirel]

Awww, morm, do not take my quip so deeply to heart. I have no real wish to insult you. Without you no Werewolf attack could be fully complete...

It seems to me that more evidence is likely to be found in last evening's lynching than in tonight's kill, which is really fairly self-explanatory and leaves little trail. Did the wolves keep their hands clean from Lhuna's death or spur it on? If they encouraged it, why? Who did she suspect? Who suspected, or pretend to suspect, her?

[I'm out for lunch so won't be able to enlarge on this as soon as I'd like.]

[Kath]

Well, not an entirely unexpected death, but even though she took Form with her I'm glad she was the Hunter and not the Seer. At this rate we're going to need them even more than usual!

I'm not sure that there's much point in looking back over Jenny's posts for her suspicions as it seems more likely that the wolves killed her for her Gifted hints rather than who she suspected, but I'll do it anyway.

Post 22 - in character but asks that we focus on the threat a bit more, and mentions that at least one wolf is likely to have already posted before her. This was later argued against with Di's list I think.

Post 44 - again complains about too much in character nonsense. Mentions some suspicion of Sauce, Gurthang, Nilp and Di. Except for Sauce none of those were actually serious, and even the suspicion of Sauce wasn't strong. The talk over Di was a reference to the film too so unlikely to have been serious.

Post 75 - as in fact she explains here in answer to Holby's questioning. She explains why she was worried over Glirdan, and with good reason actually.

Post 85 - says she is absolutely against the Eomer and Nilp bandwagons. Tells people off for grudge-lynching Eomer, which is fair enough, it gets irritating.

Post 86 - implicitly tells us not to vote for Nilp, which of course she would knowing his role, and also insists we don't vote Eomer. Then votes Holby in the hope of getting the rest of the village to follow her to save the other two. This is odd. I think she must have believed Eomer to be the Seer, as otherwise she wouldn't have worked so hard to save him. That's the only excuse I can see for her trying to instigate a bandwagon against another villager, as otherwise she couldn't be sure that she wasn't about the get the Seer lynched. The vote for Holby did have some reasoning at least.

Post 89 - cross with Form for not going along with her plan and reiterates that a mistake is being made.

Post 92 - cross about Day 1's.

Post 94 - continues to try and save Nilp, suggesting everyone votes either for Lalaith or Holby.

Post 97 - again tells us Nilp is innocent.

Post 127 - gloats a little. Has Form at the top of her suspect list for his dooming Nilp/Eomer, well, this could explain why the wolves killed her. If they believed she was the Hunter and knew Form was innocent and top of her list it wouldn't be a huge leap to think she'd take him with her. Also suspects Gurthang and Firefoot.

Post 130 - apologises to Holby for trying to get her lynched. First says it was only to save Nilp/Eomer, then claims she was actually suspicious of her as well.

Post 149 - explains her suspicion of Form, of him being the one that made it impossible to save Nilp/Eomer after saying he thought them both innocent.

Post 168 - refutes my opinions with fair reasoning as it seems I missed out some rather obvious options. However, then says none of those options are actually the case it's just because she's clever. Claims the wolves will be within her list of Rune, Durelin, Guy, Taliesin, Firefoot, Holby, Form, Fin and Gurthang.

Post 176 - claims she wasn't hinting as to her role.

Post 184 - helps explain Lhuna's behaviour and asks whether the Seer can see the identities of the Lovers.

Post 200 - repeats her earlier list and has Rune, Durelin, Tali, Holby and Form as her main suspects due to being less familiar with them. Says she'll be back with an analysis and a vote and won't be around much the next Day.

Post 202 - says she had no time for the analysis and votes Form, presumably on the earlier reasoning. Again explains why if the wolves thought her the Hunter they had no qualms about her taking one of them with her.

Post 203 - complains about the lack of voting.

Well, assuming that the wolves had no fear about killing her, it seems fair to suggest that either very few or none of the people she mentioned were wolves, which in that case makes everyone on that list of hers an unlikely suspect.

Unfortunately with her death I lost my only real suspect, so I'm going to have to start all over again

Right at this second I'm finding myself agreeing with the suspicion around TGWBS, he has said very little and what he has said has been of very little use. Since I appear to have some time on my hands (procrastination ) I may take a look at him as well.

[Kath]

TGWBS:

Post 63 - some in character nonsense about overthrowing the capitalists, in this case Eomer, Ang and SPM, followed by a vote for Eomer. As it was so early I doubt this was intended to start a bandwagon really, but the earliness itself is odd. TGWBS is in the same timezone as I am and as I don't believe there was a reason for this early vote (correct me if I'm wrong there) it does seem odd. This was his only post Day 1.

Post 158 - says SPM is making sense which is good, and Glirdan is making no sense which is good. The logic sort of makes sense, but it would have been nice to have a bit more reasoning behind those statements, or any reasoning in fact. Says Eomer's death makes those who voted for him look suspicious, or at least that's what the wolves want us to think. Not sure if he's making a point there or just mentioning it.

No vote, apparently there was a reason however.

Post 220 - says if he were more conscious he would come up with theories.

Post 225 - explains what he meant by his comment on Glirdan and says he presumes him to be innocent. Says he'll be back in 14 hours.

And that's it! I'm pretty sure it's been 14 hours yet we've seen nothing more from him, and what we have seen so far has had absolutely no substance to it. I don't think I've ever seen him play this way before and it's worrying me. He could be a wolf trying to fly under the radar, he could be a Gifted trying to do the same, or he could just be an innocent being irritating. I hope to see more from him in the hours leading up to the deadline so I can work out which of these I think he actually is.

Now, I'm supposed to be revising so I don't fail psychology completely, so I must be off.

[Glirdan]

I am back and I must say that I'm quite shocked at how little people are conversing right now... CURSE YOU TIMEZONES!!!

Now, on to something else. Is it just me or is morm getting bolder and bolder as each Day goes by? Here's something I find really odd:

This came when he voted for me. Odd, I don’t remember ‘gunning’ for Glirdan yesterday. In fact I simply mentioned him in passing that I thought he was a wolf.(morm)

Haha! You're funny! Not gunning for me yesterDay! Are you kidding!? All you did yesterDay was attck Firefoot, Ang and myself and now Ang is not one of your "I'm absolutely sure they are guilty" ones. You're confusing me. And because of that, I don't know what to think of you. I think you could be innocent because of all the attacking you've done. You've been very persistent, I'll give you that. But you could be a Wolf. There's just something about you that's not sitting right with me and the fact that you have been gunning for us three makes me even more uneasy.

Here's a theory: Is it possible that Ang and morm are both Wolves and they're going at it to cover up a furry little secret?

Rune's points against TGWBS make me even more suspicious of Engels. Kath's points agains him are good to. Now I'm really suspicious of him. The fact that he's so quiet makes me really uneasy. I'm really quite scared of what he could as a Wolf.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, I apologise to Jenny for highlighting her Hunter hints. But I really didn't think her either the Hunter or the Seer, as I would have expected her to sacrifice Eomer to save Nilp in those circumstances. There was little to suggest Eomer was the Seer.

I am not going to be around much today, so I am going to take the opportunity now to give my general impression of my fellow passengers as matters stand:

Diamond: Posted first and, when Glirdan speculated that Wolves often post first, spent a great deal of energy in effectively disproving the point. However, has directed far less energy to actually finding the Wolves. It might be said that she is being unusually unhelpful. Grudge against Eomer was a good way of starting off a bandwaggon against a dangerous opponent, and she only voted with it herself once it was in full swing. Latest post considers withdrawing, implying innocence, yet she decides not to withdraw for now. She may well be a Wolf. Her early and unreasoned vote for me is rather un-Wolf-like, but perhaps they now feel confident enough to start taking a few risks.

Anguirel: After an active first Day has quietened down considerably. Backed off from his Day 1 suspicions of morm rather quickly after morm began to focus on him. Don’t like the way he pointed out that he was resolved to vote for Lhuna before Glirdan’s vote. I thought of saying the same thing after my vote followed Rune’s, but thought it an unnecessary for an innocent, more the sort of thing a Wolf might say. I was inclined to trust him, but now I’m not so sure. His voting record is lousy, although it doesn’t follow from that that he’s a Wolf.

Glirdan: Coming across completely Glirdan-like to me. Which doesn’t mean that he’s not a Wolf. But I just don’t see it.

Durelin: Has acted completely how I would expect her to act (with the exception of a vote for me ). Can’t see anything suspicious about her.

Gurthang: Some of his early comments were strange (and these have been discussed at length previously) and raised my suspicions, although his explanation was persuasive. Nevertheless, his votes have consistently been safe ones, and I still don‘t like the early encouragement of the Eomer bandwaggon on Day 1 (which was not really adequately explained). Still keeping an eye on him.

Kath: Really not a lot to go on, which raises concerns, but not overly so. I think that Kath, as a Wolf, would involve herself much more in the proceedings. Nevertheless, her efforts toDay at stirring a possible TGWBS bandwaggon are of concern.

Rune: Comes across as genuine to me. So either he’s a brilliant dissembler (which I do not dismiss) or he’s innocent (which I think more likely). Although he has been involved in both the "unsuccessful bandwagons” (those against Eomer and Holby), the fact that his involvement was so early makes them rather risky moves for a Wolf in the early Days. The same goes for his early vote today for TGWBS (see my thoughts on TGWBS and him possibly being lined up by the Wolves as today’s lynch victim).

Taliesin: His late vote for Eomer on Day 1 was notable, although he explained it well enough. If either Holby or Firefoot is a Wolf (as I suspect) his vote for Lhuna yesterday could have been an attempt to save one of his fellows. Other than that, I can’t see much reason to suspect him.

Lalaith: Has been contributing, appearing helpful, without taking too many risks. Her quiet competence and undoubted cunning, if a Wolf, does somewhat unnerve me.

Firefoot: A dodgy vote yesterday. Not only was it incredibly safe, but she sought to explain it away. Definitely suspicious.

Caran: Quietly helpful. Could be a cause for concern. As could her early thoughts about TGWBS, which might be seen as an attempt to encourage a bandwaggon against him.

Mormegil: His bold aggressive approach from the off is most un-Wolflike. But if anyone can pull such an approach off, it’s morm. If he is a Wolf, it’s working so far. The fact that he has not yet been killed is a cause for concern, but the same might be said about me (and usually is). He may be right about Anguirel (although he has now somewhat backed off from his Ang position), but I think he’s wrong about Glirdan. This may be a dangerous thing to do, but I am inclined to trust him for now.

Holbytlass: Still my main suspect, since little has happened to alter my original assesment of her. I just get the impression that she is being very careful with her posts. She voted for Lhuna to save herself, thus condemning Lhuna, and it is undoubtedly the case that a Wolf has more reason to save herself than an ordinary villager. Nevertheless, I would probably have done the same if in her position, so it doesn’t really add much, one way or the other.

TGWBS: He hasn’t been around much, but I don’t see much in what he has said to particularly suspect him. The growing case against him toDay seems to be based on his quietness and his ambiguous comments. The former may be forced on him by circumstances. The latter is typical of him. I am suspicious of all the suspicion gathering about him toDay and suspect that there may be a Wolfish plot to have him lynched.

Findesea: I believe her to be innocent because she has shown confusion over the rues twice: on Day 1 with the Lovers, and yesterDay with the Ranger//Hunter/Seer thing. A Wolf would not make such mistakes, so she is either being fiendishly clever or she is innocent. While I don’t doubt her intelligence, her confusion does not suggest Wolfish bluff to me.

So, to conclude:

Prime suspects: Holbytlass, Diamond, Firefoot

Wary of: Anguirel, Gurthang, Lalaith

Don't know: Kath, Taliesin, Caran

Inclined to trust (for now): Glirdan, Durelin, Rune, mormegil, TGWBS, Findesea

I am conscious of the fact that there may be a Wolf among those that I am currently inclined to trust, as my instincts are not the best when it comes to this kind of thing. But I prefer to narrow the field and focus on only a few individuals at a time. Unless something dramatic happens, my vote will most probably go to one of my prime suspects.

[Firefoot]

One thing at least seems fairly certain and that is that Morm is not the seer... I was half-thinking he might be, what with his insistant attacks and immediate votes on the first two Days... but the fact that he's switching around on those attacks (Ang...) would obviously indicate that he did not dream of him.

You could have made a difference in the vote. It seems to much like “okay one of these two innocents are doomed and for the record I think both are innocent.” In fact this might be a good wolf-on-wolf vote at a non-critical time.

I voted with four minutes left in the Day, which meant that any other votes were likely enough to be cross-posted. Even so, my next choice, Form, would have needed two votes (besides mine) to be lynched - with only four people besides me (only one of which had shown any sign of being around), it was highly unlikely that I could have made a difference. I wanted to vote for Lalaith; the only reason I was holding my vote was to make sure that I didn't get lynched. No, I really don't think in that situation that I could have made a difference. You might say, look how much she cares about saving her own skin, that makes her a wolf... innocents care about their own skins, too, you know.

Right now I have no idea what to think of Morm. With how bold he's been playing, he's almost daring us to lynch him. I definitely want to have a closer look at him toDay.

Also, a further look at voting patterns... with four wolves working together, maybe there will be something to see by now.

But all this will be coming in a couple hours... I'm off.

Cross-posting with Sauce.

[Holbytlass]

I'm looking at the vote record of those who have given nonbandwagon careful votes.

Mormegil:Glirdan, Ang (1/1; 1/1)
Suspicious in being first to vote and early on

Findeasea:Lalaith both times(17/2; 2/1)
voted late first DAY but was consistent with early vote on 2nd DAY, not suspicious

Lalaith:Formen both times(4/1; 10/1)
early and mid votes for same person but now a known innocent- a wolf o'course would know that

Glirdan:Kath, Lhuna (4/1; 8/1)
not too suspicious first day vote fairly early 1st DAY, first vote midway for lynchee

SpM:Holby both times (13/1; 6/2)
being consistent for unknown, despite it being myself don't find this too susp

Gurthang:Diamond, Morm(18/1; 16/1)
very suspicious both first LATE votes

Caran:Jenny, Firefoot (11/1; 10/2)
suspicious first vote for now known innocent, mid vote put Firefoot in 3 way tie

Kath:no vote, Jenny (7/1)
although always susp of those who don't vote, was first mid vote for known innocent

No votes 2nd day Diamond TGWBS
always suspicous of nonvoters


suspect list
Gurthang
Mormegil
Caran
TGWBS
Diamond
Kath
EDIT: Lalaith

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Kath talking about Jenny

Post 127 - gloats a little. Has Form at the top of her suspect list for his dooming Nilp/Eomer, well, this could explain why the wolves killed her. If they believed she was the Hunter and knew Form was innocent and top of her list it wouldn't be a huge leap to think she'd take him with her. Also suspects Gurthang and Firefoot.

Originally Posted by Same

Post 200 - repeats her earlier list and has Rune, Durelin, Tali, Holby and Form as her main suspects due to being less familiar with them. Says she'll be back with an analysis and a vote and won't be around much the next Day.

Originally Posted by Kath

Well, assuming that the wolves had no fear about killing her, it seems fair to suggest that either very few or none of the people she mentioned were wolves, which in that case makes everyone on that list of hers an unlikely suspect.

Well I somewhat agree with you, but it is interesting to note that Jenny changes her suspicion from Formen, Gurthang and Firefoot to a whole list of people on which Gurthang and Firefoot are not. Yet again another piece to a probably specious puzzle but it makes me further suspect those two.

[Lalaith]

Ok, mega-post coming up.

First off, all that flurry of activity last Day was a bit odd. Lots of last-minute, unreasoning voting. I do feel a bit hypocritical complaining about it as I was no better, and who knows, maybe we were all caught on the hop in RL.
But if anyone could do a Saucie-style vote tally for Day Two I’d be grateful – reading through all the posts so far and writing this post has taken up all my available time.
I actually don’t think that a Lhuna vote is that suspicious in itself as her own post that Day was very odd: if she really did think Rune was a wolf, why didn’t she vote for him? (Although I quite agreed with her about Jenny being innocent)

Another thing, I was thinking rather well of Saucie and Durelin, I was under the impression that both were stating their disbelief of Jenny as Hunter in an attempt to protect her. Now Saucie says that he really didn’t believe Jenny was the Hunter.
Anyway, on to my thoughts of everyone.

Durelin – At first she worried me, with her claims that her vote for Nilp was a throwaway, and the long time she spent making gnomic utterances “in character.” Since then, she has had a certain disingenuous insouciance which makes me think her innocent. I may be doing her too much of a favour here, but I still think she was trying to cover for Jenny, saying she wasn’t the Hunter.

Caranlondien -- now I know I said before that I was all for reasoning based on experience but Caran takes it a bit far. She voted for Jenny purely because she’s a fiendish wolf and trusts Saucie for no other reason than he’s been lynched unfairly in the past. Makes odd point in post 123, seems to think Eomer would only have been mistaken for Seer by inexperienced wolves, thinking he (Eomer) had found a wolf. Takes Diamond’s fairly jokey piratical self-defence literally. I don’t like all this face-value stuff, particularly from a smart player like Caran. Voted Firefoot on Day Two, at a nice safe, could-go-any-way time.

Holbytlass -- Did lots of analyses on Day two which seem to be in note-form so a bit hard for the rest of us to understand. Does however pickup on the bluffers which I think is a useful point. I’m not entirely happy with the way she picked on Jenny, but I can’t say I subscribe to the general suspicion about her.

Findëasëa: not just a rationalist, but an idealist. “a wolf being sacrificed to benefit the team overall is probably something that wolves plan ahead of time, or only in a dire case” Hmmm… she clearly hasn't seen some of the dirty wolvish tricks I have had to witness in my time. However, I don’t particularly suspect Fin.

Kath -- One of the worst fates that can befall a werewolf player is to be considered innocent by the majority – it means the wolves will get you like as not. So maybe I should do Kath a favour by pointing out to those who have declared her innocent on the strength of her non-vote on Day One, that I remember a wolf-Kath laid low by hay fever doing much the same thing. However, having said that, I’m not particularly suspecting her.

Diamond18 – I’ve never met a wolfish Diamond, but this certainly seems an odd, (perhaps unusually RL-busy) Diamond. The Eomer vendetta could just as easily have been conducted by an innocent or a wolf, and while her Saucie vote was rather startling, one of her reasons, that everyone else was trusting him, is one I can sympathise with. The most suspicious thing about her was the way she complained about not much having happened out of character, without really doing anything to change it herself. I’m not hugely worried about her but I’ll be watching her.

Firefoot -- I was very worried about her at first, sinister comments like “because we’re never going to find out about him(Nilp) unless he’s lynched …” Then she claimed not to understand why Eomer was lynched, I would have thought more of Firefoot. However, I now feel much more comfortable with her (despite her suspicions of me!) she has been doing some really good analysis.

Gurthang --

Is puzzling me. On the one hand, I’m finding that his opinions of people are reasonably sound – usually a good sign of a fellow innocent. But on the other, his personal behaviour is rather disturbing. His remarks about Eomer, his biblical stuff, as pointed out by Saucie. Another to watch.


Rune Son of Bjarne – I haven’t played with Rune before so maybe I’m getting the wrong handle on him, but there are a couple of things that really worry me about Rune. Firstly, the bandwaggoning an innocent (Eomer). Also he spent a long time either in character or agreeing with or echoing other people’s comments rather than coming up with his own thoughts. He’s been a bit less suspicious today but I still find his behaviour worrying, and Guy is just such an easy target.

Mormegil – Been the first to vote on both Day One and Day Two. Morm, who in his last incarnation was a reasonable, helpful Wolf, is now back to his bloodthirsty self which I find strangely comforting. His fight with Ang over the corpse of Eomer seems to have abated somewhat, and he’s not yet voted today. I think he could be on to something. Your last post, Morm, could you elaborate?

Taliesin Hasn’t posted much. Voted Eomer because he said Jenny was defending him – this was an odd reason as Jenny was in fact mostly defending Nilp. Yesterday he sealed the fate of Lhuna. He’s worrying, although not my chief suspect.

Saucepan Man – I remember a time when a close relative of Sir Horatio was very disquieting to me because he was just making way too sense. That time, I had good reason to worry. Now he is making a fair bit of sense – but I can’t say I’m nodding in agreement with all his conclusions. To me, this feels more healthy and I am not too worried about him right now. However, the Jenny thing has slightly perturbed me (see above)

Anguirel: If we’re still talking grudges, my wounds from the beak of Emperor Ang are fresher than the claw-marks inflicted by the Wolf of the Rohirrim. The noble defence of Eomer could be a classic bad-Ang move. But on the other hand show-boating – ie the balladeering - tends to be the mark of an innocent Ang.
Glirdan -- I actually don’t find Glirdan or his day one vote as worrying as some of you do. He was spreading out the vote while diverting danger away from himself, which seems to me quite reasonable.

Friedrich Engels (the guy who be short) – very little to go on in himself, but I agree that the attempt to start a tgwbs bandwaggon today is interesting and should be watched closely.

So, at the moment my chief worries are Caran and Rune. But I want to hear more from Morm about Jenny's list.

[Durelin]

Durelin – At first she worried me, with her claims that her vote for Eomer was a throwaway

I voted for Nilp, sadly. But eh, easily confused.

I am a little worried about SPM.

I've been agreeing with him, and I haven't felt the need to vote for him. And he isn't suspicious of me.

It's shocking.

[Lalaith]

Sorry, I meant Nilp, and will edit accordingly. I was trying to process too much information...

[Anguirel]

A quick look at last evening's votes: (plagiarised from Firefoot, thankyou, what a gift)

Yesterday's voting:

Ang – 1 (Morm 1)
Lalaith – 2 (Findeasea 2, Firefoot 15)
Firefoot – 2 (Lhuna 3, Caran 10)
Formen – 2 (Lalaith 4, Jenny 11)
Holby – 3 (Rune 5, SpM 6, Durelin 13)
Jenny - 1 (Kath 7)
Lhuna – 4 (Glirdan 8, Ang 9, Taliesin 12, Holby 14)
Morm – 1 (Gurthang 16)

Did not vote: Form, TGWBS, Diamond

morm's vote I can well recognise and sympathise with. It was the start of a Crusade against me; its earliness and persistence were supposed to emphasise its power. Shades of my flailings against Diamond in the Werepenguin attack, but unlike I did I think morm intended this with a true heart. Sometimes there are people who you acquire a desperate need to be sure about; to be sure, if necessary, by the agency of hanging them. I suppose this is the relation in which I stood to morm.

Findeasea's was a consistent vote, as I noted earlier. Its consistency fits strangely with the vagueness of its material both times-simply that Lalaith was behaving in a characteristically aethereal and subtle manner-and perhaps suggests Fin had little to go on. Firefoot's seconding-with scarcely any reasoning-would in normal stances be extremely suspicious, but by then the Lhuna campaign was in full swing. Still, a good camouflage vote for a wolf.

The bandwagon against Firefoot herself was, we know, started with honest intentions by the late Lhuna. Could Caran's support-making Firefoot a contender for lynching with Lhuna-have been an innocent-binding exercise? I tend to suspect Caran more than Firefoot for this reason.

Lalaith, like her rationalist (have I got it right?) adversary Fin, stuck to her guns and voted Formendacil. She was seconded by our Hunter. This was before the Lhuna case had started so was not a deliberate rival. We know, though, that it targetted an innocent-but such a suspicious looking innocent. Form was an uninspired choice but not an inexplicable one.

Holby's case was always going to be a fairly numerous one. Many had expressed suspicion of her. This might speak quite well for those within the bandwagon, as not being unwilling to risk lynching a wrong candidate. Sauce looks the most innocent Holby-voter; he'd long suspected her and was, if you like, the bandwagon's true starter rather than Rune. Not unduly worried about Rune and Durelin as yet though.

Jenny's lone condemnation from Kath looks pretty bad to me. Her ambiguous hints had warned most to stay well away; it was unlikely she'd gather votes and so was a safe choice for a wolf wishing to avoid guilt and lurk from the limelight. However, Kath-Wolf would also have to be bold enough to vote for a strongly suspected Gifted.

The Lhuna bandwagon. This was basically, in my book, a misshapen monster. Both Glirdan and I nursed (for different reasons) suspicion of Lhuna and I obstinately didn't want to budge to Firefoot who I was starting to suspect less. Taliesin's vote is reminiscent of his late support for Eomer's lynching-but with baneful success behind it this time, due to Holby's self-preservation vote (understandable enough.) I suspect Taliesin most from this lot.

Gurthang's vote for morm was basically a spoilt ballot, an abstension with a political purpose (I presume). It represents an unwillingness to make a decision which could be characteristic of a wolf or a villager seeking to avoid death.

Thus, bold my brave companions, hear these three
Kath, Taliesin, fair Caran, from me
Are most arrayed in darkness; then mayhap
Firefoot; Gurthang I with white feathers slap.

[Durelin]

Oh yeah...I guess I could explain a couple things just so you guys have some more interesting things to pick apart, analyze, and quarrel over. Or not.

I voted for Holby because I was much more certain that Lhuna was innocent. Lhuna was Lhuna, and not wolfish Lhuna, in my opinion.

Wolfish Lhuna is much less interesting, and so much less likely to get lynched.

Oh, and about Jenny - yeah, I really doubted she was the Hunter. I thought the Hunter would...well...at least try to stay low... Though I suppose that might have been why she didn't vote for Eomer to save Nilp. Still, I really don't think that would've brought much attention to her in the way of being the Hunter or any sort of Gifted.

I'll be back in an hour or so. Have fun while I'm gone!

[mormegil]

++Firefoot

Lal, on what do you want me to elaborate?

[Lalaith]

On this:

Well I somewhat agree with you, but it is interesting to note that Jenny changes her suspicion from Formen, Gurthang and Firefoot to a whole list of people on which Gurthang and Firefoot are not. Yet again another piece to a probably specious puzzle but it makes me further suspect those two.

Do you mean that Gurthang and Firefoot thought Jenny was the Hunter and thought it was safe to kill her?

[Firefoot]

Firefoot's seconding-with scarcely any reasoning

Lalaith was on my suspicions list all Day. During my analysis, she looked like one of the most guilty to me (and post 192, it's her and Formen who are in my "suspicious" category).

Okay, remember how I said I didn't know how much I was going to be around? I don't know now if I'm going to be back before deadline (I thought I would have more time than this now), so I have to vote:

++Durelin

A second look at her posts is making me uncomfortable. Her banter with Nilp on Day 1 would be an extremely easy place for a wolf to hide. I wish she had provided some reasoning for a vote for Holby yesterDay. Shoot, I'm not done, and I have to go. Shoot, shoot. Hopefully I'll be back later.

[Taliesin]

It is as I feared.. Lhuna innocent, the more I thought about it the more I came to realise my vote didn't make much sense at all. I just couldn't get a grip on her, but after my vote, I came to realise 'why would a wolvish Lhuna act like that?' It didn't make much sense. Alas, it is too late now.

Nothing is lost yet, but today we should be absolutely certain of lynching a wolf. If we loose two more innocents before the next day, I fear we're in far deeper trouble then we are now.

Unfortunately, I can't be here until the deadline, I will have to vote in an hour.

So either of these will most likely get my vote.

Glirdan
The Saucepan Man

Why? I'll tell you why.

The Eomer kill taught us that we have some bold wolves in our midst. I think those wolves are most likely not people who are trying to 'lay low' or try to go 'under the radar'. These wolves are trying to point us villagers into directions they want us to face.

So far Glirdan has been trying to take lead of our village and point us in wrong directions. On Day 1, he made a vote for Kath, based on her being a slave, so basically with little to no reason at all, and vanishes for the rest of the day.

Day 2 he comes back saying he isn't suprised Eomer got killed at all, why not? Because it was you all along who planned? I was rather suprised they killed Eomer and with me most of the villagers.

After that, Glirdan starts analyzing the people who voted for Eomer, saying the people who voted probably have a wolf in their midst. Most likely there is, however with 4 werewolves there's a high chance out of five people at least one of them is a wolf.
In his analyses, he brings up about point about me, which in all fairness can be described as suspicious. But when he analyzed Rune, he found nothing suspicious, yet added him to his list of suspects nontheless. Same story goes for Lhuna and let me quote this part:

Originally Posted by Glirdan

This is probably the oddest post I have read all Day but it doesn't surprise me. The only thing that's odd is her vote for Eomer which was completely baseless. Other than that, nothing truly suspicious about her

Nothing truly suspicious, but still a suspect? He is trying to point us in a direction we shouldn't be looking!
Later on, he claims Rune is a more vocal player and therefore claims him again quilty without a good reason as Rune later on says he isn't really a vocal player at all ( maybe Rune is just too modest about himself ).

But it gets better. Later on the day, he suggests we look at the quieter people who voted for Eomer, completely contradicting with my views. I think we should look at the off-voters, and the people who are trying to take things in their own hands. Which would be Glirdan.


On the other hand, we have The Saucepan Man. He has been, on the surface, a great help for all of us, as he always is a helpful innocent to have around. Yet that is exactly the thing that makes it easy to trust him, I feel like I want to trust him. This is the feeling that scares me off him. He's not likely to be lynched at all, so having him as a wolf would be bad, very bad indeed. As Diamond said

Originally Posted by Diamond

His posts have made me feel uneasy, and the fact that most everyone else is putting him on their "likely innocent" lists makes me even more uneasy.

This is the same feeling I have. It's mostly just a scary thought, what if he isn't an innocent as everyone seems so eager to think.
He was the one pointing out the possibility of Jenny being the hunter, which he gladly pointed out. Knowing it was safe to kill her because she didn't suspect him at all, it might be his doing aswell. He's certainly bold enough to pull a trick like they did on Eomer and completely fits the way a wolf would act as I see it. Then again, he's always one of the most influential people around.

That being said, ofcourse I don't claim the rest to be innocent at all, but I really feel if we catch one wolf today we're going the right way again, and have all the time to look at someone else the next day.

That's it, for now. I realise I might be off the safe grounds with this post. Also after completing this post I only have 15 minutes left before voting instead of the hour I had before I started writing.

I hope to get a few thoughts on this matter before I have to vote.

[Durelin]

Alas, I somehow managed two whole days without anyone voting for me.

Okay, here are my suspects :

Rune
Holby
Anguirel

Possibly Taliesin.

I have some dirt on them.

Wow, I'm being consistent.

I almost put Saucie on that list, but...

Originally Posted by Taliesin

This is the same feeling I have. It's mostly just a scary thought, what if he isn't an innocent as everyone seems so eager to think.
He was the one pointing out the possibility of Jenny being the hunter, which he gladly pointed out. Knowing it was safe to kill her because she didn't suspect him at all, it might be his doing aswell. He's certainly bold enough to pull a trick like they did on Eomer and completely fits the way a wolf would act as I see it. Then again, he's always one of the most influential people around.

I know, but that's how Saucie always is. Everyone tends to trust him, and a few people just want to get rid of him because he's scary because people want to trust him. But I'm not thinking of lynching him right now. Why? Because of the Jenny thing. Why would he have brought the Hunter thing up if he (as a wolf) was planning to get her that night? He would've left it unspoken, I imagine, unless he was being bold. Possible. But right now, I doubt it.

[Taliesin]

Time has to come vote

++Glirdan

For reasons in post #257

[Gurthang]

Diamond - The Saucepan Man (Saucepan-1)
Rune - TGWBS (Saucepan-1, Guy-1)
mormegil - Firefoot (Saucepan-1, Guy-1, Firefoot-1)
Firefoot - Durelin (Saucepan-1, Guy-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-1)
Taliesin - Glirdan (Saucepan-1, Guy-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-1, Glirdan-1)

Originally Posted by mormegil

This came when he voted for me. Odd, I don’t remember ‘gunning’ for Glirdan yesterday. In fact I simply mentioned him in passing that I thought he was a wolf. That’s not ‘gunning’. If anything you could say that I was gunning for Anguirel, who insultingly calls me ‘special’.

Okay, I went back to get quotes and stuff to refute this, but I couldn't find any. Which seems really weird to me, because I seem to remember you saying more stuff about Glirdan than you did, and usually my memory about that kind of thing isn't so off.

Actually, I'm beginning to think you're innocent. Somewhat because I was wrong about the above, but more because of the way you attacked me for it. That's the vengeful way you usually act when you're innocent, as somebody else has mentioned already.

Holby, as far as my 'suspicious late votes': I get off work half an hour before Day ends. So I am able to vote late and so I do, rather than vote 8 hours early. But both days when I get here the votes have worked so that the people who are likely to get lynched are people who I don't suspect, and so really didn't feel like voting for. I did become somewhat suspicious of you because of your vote, but didn't have time to look back at you, and so voted for morm.

Now, I've got over two hours to look back through stuff. Primarily at Guy and Holbytlass, but I'll see if I can spot anything else.

[Durelin]

Hmmm...I forgot about Gurthang. That's something I should worry about.

Unfortunately I have to vote now....

++Rune

[Caranlondien]

First, a recap of voting so far:
1. Diamond-->SpM (SpM 1)
2. Rune-->tgwbs (SpM 1, tgwbs 1)
3. mormegil-->Firefoot (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot 1)
4. Firefoot-->Durelin (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot 1, Durelin 1)
5. Taliesin-->Glirdan (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot 1, Durelin 1, Glirdan 1)
6. Durelin-->Rune (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot 1, Durelin 1, Glirdan 1, Rune 1)

Now, mainly for my own sanity (because otherwise I'm always going back and finding I've missed someone and jumping all around changing my suspicions), a list of passengers and my feelings about them:

Durelin - Seems quite normal to me so far. Nothing has peaked my suspicions.
Holbytlass - I could see her being a wolf. I have no past experience to compare her behavior to, though. She's made a lot of short posts, allowing her to maintain a presence without saying much at any given time. However, that could just as easily be the behavior of an innocent.
Findëasëa - Seems normal to me as well. I don't think she's a wolf.
Kath - Someone mentioned they thought Kath would involve herself more as a wolf. However, I have a distinct memory of her being a wolf flying under the radar, and successfully so, in that I never suspected her. I think it's worth going back over her posts.
Lalaith - Doesn't seem suspicious to me, but I've barely noticed her, so I don't want to discount her too easily. If I have time, I may go over her posts too.
Diamond18 - It's possible she's a very bold wolf, or a wolf who honestly has RL issues. But I think it's more likely she's innocent.
Firefoot - I'm still sort of nervous about her, but not as suspicious as I was yesterDay. I don't think she'll get my vote toDay; her recent posts have seemed innocent enough.
Gurthang - Still wary of him. Something just seems different about him, but I can't really pin it down to anything he's said. It's a gut feeling.
Rune Son of Bjarne - Another one I know nothing about. I really don't know what to think about him, and with other more pressing suspects, I don't plan to vote for him.
Mormegil - Making me nervous. I've seen him as a careful wolf in the past, but I think he could also be a bold wolf.
Taliesin - Reminding me of a certain wolf-newbie an ancestor of mine came across. He's on my radar, but not overly suspicious-looking.
Saucepan Man - I forget who it was, but someone said that the only reason I trust SpM is that he's been unfairly lynched in the past - not so. I trust him because he's seemed helpful and sensible. Perhaps you misinterpreted my joke about how I never trust him when he's innocent, so maybe my trusting him means he's guilty? Anyway, I still trust him.
Anguirel - He doesn't look suspicious to me. Won't be voting for him toDay, in any case.
Glirdan - I've been a little concerned about him, but not overly suspicious.
[the guy who be short - what concerns me is his relative silence. I'm used to a more vocal tgwbs. Could be RL, but also could be wolvishness.

Suspects
Holbytlass
Kath
Firefoot
Gurthang
Mormegil
tgwbs

EDIT: cross-posted with Gurthang and Durelin, added latest vote

[The Saucepan Man]

I have not been much help today, for which I apologise. Too much fine sport to be had on the magic box.

I really have little more to go on than when the Day started and have had little time toDay to look at the options. So I shall stick with my ongoing suspicion of Holby, which has not dimmed.

+ + HOLBYTLASS

I realise that this further widens an already broad field of candidates, but I think that no bad thing.

I shall try to be of more use tomorrow, assuming that I survive 'til then.

[Glirdan]

Okay, Taliesin has brought about things about me that I'd like to clarify (mostly for him but for others who have been wondering it as well):

So far Glirdan has been trying to take lead of our village and point us in wrong directions. On Day 1, he made a vote for Kath, based on her being a slave, so basically with little to no reason at all, and vanishes for the rest of the day.

Wow, I'm taking initiative. I think that would be an improvement more than anything. And even then, I don't think I'm trying to "lead" anyone. I'm voicing facts and my opinions, which is what we're supposed to do, right? I vanished because I had studying to do for my exams (there's only one left so bear with me).

Day 2 he comes back saying he isn't suprised Eomer got killed at all, why not? Because it was you all along who planned? I was rather suprised they killed Eomer and with me most of the villagers.

I was actually debating in my mind over the Night who the Wolves victim would be. I was debating either Saucy or Eomer because both are very intelligent players and would be a danger to the Wolves (which is a reason why I'm uneasy about Saucy as well. I'll get to that in a miute). And I think you should go back and correct yourself, there were quite a few who weren't surprised so...

In his analyses, he brings up about point about me, which in all fairness can be described as suspicious. But when he analyzed Rune, he found nothing suspicious, yet added him to his list of suspects nontheless. Same story goes for Lhuna and let me quote this part:

Nothing truly suspicious, but still a suspect? He is trying to point us in a direction we shouldn't be looking!
Later on, he claims Rune is a more vocal player and therefore claims him again quilty without a good reason as Rune later on says he isn't really a vocal player at all ( maybe Rune is just too modest about himself ).

I understand your confusion behind this and I take full credit for not explaning myself about it earlier. What I meant was that out of the five who voted Eomer, I found them the least suspicious, yet they were still suspicious looking in my eyes. I realise I'm being contradictive but that's the way I am.

That's all I really had to adress.

Now, on to what I want to say about Saucy. This guy is crafty, intelligent and when needed to be, sneaky. That's why I'm very wary of him. He makes me really nervous anytime I play with him because I never know what to think of him. ToDay, when I found out he was still alived, I was quite surprised. I was sure that the Wolves would have gotten rid of him. But then I thought about it and after going back and seeing Jenny's Gifted hints, I thought that it makes sense the Wolves would want to put off killing him because they might have found a Gifted. However, that still doesn't make me less uneasy about him. If anything, it makes it worse. There's something that does not sit right with me about that Man. I swear, if he's not dead toNight, I will be quite surprised and really suspicious.

[Anguirel]

Firefoot, I see I was somewhat mistaken about your vote of last evening's lack of reasoning. Sorry. That slightly shoots my suspicions of you below the hull, though I might still think you a wolf from a different perspective!

Admiral Sauce's unwillingness to kick the "race" into gear might be interpreted as a desire to avoid committing himself. But it's not enough in and of itself to prod him into my suspicion list particularly.

[Glirdan]

Okay, I have to vote but I don't know whom for. Gah! I think I'm going to go with a gut suspicion and vote

++morm

He's really been worrying me. He's being to bold and there's something that's not sitting right with me about him. Now I must depart. See you on the morrow...if I survive...

[the guy who be short]

Sorrry about the lateness today. I neglected the England match that took place today (Phew!).
Anywho, I would like to officially nominate morm as wolfman.

TGWBS, when innocent tends to demand things like answers and responses but he seems detached and I think so because he's possibly guilty.

Morm knows wolf-guy very well. He also knows wolf-guy does not change tactics from ordo-guy. To base guilt on me simply due to a modified playing style is simply mormy*. Caran perhaps knows me less well, so I shall forgive her.

I'd also like to suspect Kathwin. She knows I have Sixth Form, she does, preciousss... Yes she handily overlooks it. Again, she should know that wolf-guy is wonderfully unsuspicious.

SpM... What do you mean ambiguous comments are typical of me?

*Synonym for suspicious.

[Anguirel]

Right. So the contenders for lynching proposed so far are

Admiral Saucepan Man
Engels
Firefoot
Durelin
Glirdan
Rune
Holby
morm

Eight candidates and there are sixteen of us. This is somewhat ludicrous and my ire is upon those who have fostered this situation, especially as none of my major suspects seem viable. Of this lot I only suspect Durelin and Rune-neither emphatically. Yet if I struck out and voted for, say, Kath, I would be by my own admission a gross hypocrite.

Tricky.

[the guy who be short]

++Morm.

Tradition and suspicion. Good, eh?

[Caranlondien]

I agree that the number of candidates is rather ridiculous.

++Holbytlass

It might otherwise have been Kath or Gurthang, but I"m not about to introduce a new candidate this close to deadline; It would just be a throw-away vote. Anyway, I explained my reasons for suspecting her before, and going over the posts of my suspects who are also candidates for lynching, I'm most concerned about her.

1. Diamond-->SpM (SpM 1)
2. Rune-->tgwbs (SpM 1, tgwbs 1)
3. mormegil-->Firefoot (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot 1)
4. Firefoot-->Durelin (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot 1, Durelin 1)
5. Taliesin-->Glirdan (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot 1, Durelin 1, Glirdan 1)
6. Durelin-->Rune (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot 1, Durelin 1, Glirdan 1, Rune 1)
7. SpM-->Holby (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot 1, Durelin 1, Glirdan 1, Rune 1, Holby 1)
8. Glirdan-->morm (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot 1, Durelin 1, Glirdan 1, Rune 1, Holby 1, morm 1)
9. tgwbs-->morm (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot1, Durelin 1, Glirdan 1, Rune 1, Holby 1, morm 2)
10. Caran-->Holby (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot1, Durelin 1, Glirdan 1, Rune 1, Holby 2, morm 2)

[mormegil]

Would two wolves be bold enough to go after innocent Morm? I'm not certain but that question may need to be answered.

Lal, in regards to my comment about Firefoot and Gurthang I would explain it better by saying: Yes I do believe that Gurthang and Firefoot believed Jenny to be the hunter and say her vehemence against Formen and that they dropped off her list therefore they weren't likely targets.

Guy I've never seen you this odd before. You seem hyper-sensitive to the light suspicion I cast on you.

Glirdan is a wolf I tell you and if I could change my vote I would!

[Anguirel]

morm old chap, can you consider for a moment that the following is not a stable acid test for a wolf-

Does he accuse morm?

If Yes, wolf. If No, not.

It's admittedly a simple and deliciously elegant equation, but it doesn't always add up...

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

morm old chap, can you consider for a moment that the following is not a stable acid test for a wolf-

Does he accuse morm?

If Yes, wolf. If No, not.

It's admittedly a simple and deliciously elegant equation, but it doesn't always add up...

Can you consider for a moment that I am not a naive little dunce? Perhaps I bring things up for a reason. My reasoning may not be the best but their actions did strike me as odd. Why do you defend them? I have considered both rather suspicious prior to this, does that escape your memory? I don't go after people because they accuse me...notice my vote is for somebody who hasn't accused me

[Holbytlass]

I want to stay till the better end and safe myself again, but that gets old.
Well, Sir Rear Admiral, I haven't the foggiest of who smacks of wolfishness but your theory goes that either myself or Firefoot is a wolf. I know myself to be innocent so I would vote Firefoot except Durelin pops to my mind more often than not.

++Durelin

[Gurthang]

the guy who be short:

post #'s 63, 158, 221, 225, 267, and 269

Really not much to go on. Most of it doesn't make much sense to me. He has been more active toDay, but only slightly. His vote for morm seems to have some basis at least, although I do not like that half that base is tradition. Also, I'm rather confused by him, and his lack of valuable input is a big black mark in my mind.

Holbytlass:

post #'s 46, 69, 73, 79, 84, 128, 172, 177, 180, 211, and 247

First thing I noticed, her thoughts on everyone she puts forth in 69 and 70 are very sketchy and leave much to be desired. A couple of the comments seem back and forth. Not in itself too suspicious, though, as it was Day 1.

Shows a list of suspicion based on bluffs in post 79. Half the list is now proven innocent, and I think the others (including me) to be innocent. I don't like this because she seems to base suspicion on what I would deem banter, which, I guess, first day isn't all that bad since there's not much else to go on.

Ends up voting for Nilp and says Eomer bandwagon is spite. Nilp was on her list, but I really think we'd gotten used to Nilp being suicidal, and the idea that it's a bluff just doesn't jive with me.

In #128, she spends most of the time talking about Jenny seeming suspicious, then doesn't put her on the her suspect list. Seems flip-floppish to me. And then she posts her suspect list in 172, and Jenny is on it.

Post 211 she votes for Lhuna. I wouldn't find this too strange, except that her only reason is self-preservation. Which I don't think too highly off because it seems that a wolf rather than an innocent would be worried about surviving.

Now, she gives a list, based on voting, in post 247. Personally, I love lists from voting, except her list is about vote placement. I think that vote placement is based more on timezones than being a wolf.

Overall, it's a lot of bits and pieces that don't add up to a whole lot. The feeling I'm getting, though, as opposed to Guy, is that she seems to be trying to have a presence without really adding a lot to the discussion. Guy's just not there, but Holbytlass seems there in word, but not in deed, if you get what I mean.


On an unrelated note, I agree with morm about Glirdan. I've not noticed it too much before, but this last statement really caught me as a set-up.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

There's something that does not sit right with me about that Man [Saucepan]. I swear, if he's not dead toNight, I will be quite surprised and really suspicious.

I think I'll go through Glirdan's posts real fast before I vote. If I had to vote now, I'd probably go with Holby.

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by morm

Glirdan is a wolf I tell you and if I could change my vote I would!

Originally Posted by Caran

8. Glirdan-->morm

Originally Posted by morm

notice my vote is for somebody who hasn't accused me

It's not meant to cast suspicion on you. Posted merely because it made me laugh.

[Lalaith]

Well, I don't suspect either of the front-runners particularly but I see one of my two chief suspects already has a vote.
++RUNE

[Anguirel]

morm, nothing is further from my thoughts than considering you a naive little dunce; your foresight has proved superior to mine on countless occasions. But perhaps you are the giant on whose shoulder I am now standing, and from my perspective it looks like a great orator is frenziedly demanding that a small boy who tied whose shoe laces together be condemned to death, while real murderers lurk and laugh to themselves. Thinks are just always complicated rather than simple.

And a question of my own, echoing Diamond's earlier cry: why are you allowing such uncharacteristic latitude to Kath?

On which note,

I stake mine own integrity
To follow on what I think true
I broaden yet the proud array
Of lynchees old and new.

++KATH

EDIT: Cross-posted with everyone since morm

[Findëasëa]

Hmm, the votes today do seem very interesting, I think that analyzing them tomorrow will probably prove very useful. I just got back from the train statio… er inspecting the ship, and have only had time to read through once. I am feeling less suspicious of Lalaith today, her long post had a lot more detail on her specific feelings then did her past posts. She still appears suspicious to me, but I don’t think I will vote for her today.

[Caranlondien]

Skipping out on watching the World Cup (I mean, uh, watching... the ocean) to check back in. Holby's reaction to being a frontrunner makes me nervous about my vote. She seems to be showing the concern of an ordo, not of a wolf... I should have voted Kath, but I failed to see that Ang suspected her too.