WWJ IX: Psychotic Penguins: The Crossing of Helcaraxë

[Diamond18]

If I am thinking correctly, we are to expect analysis on Ang, myself, and Naria coming from Roa early toDay, no?

toDay I would like to hear more from Spawn, Firefoot, and Eonwe. Spawn topped my possible penguin suspicions yesterDay. I am also still very suspicious of Valier. And I would like to take a look at Enca and Firefoot, probably will do analysis on them. I would have analyzed overnight, but you know, ennui and all.

It is, I suppose, good to have the Cobbler out of the way, but I'm not as happy about it as I thought I might be. Jenny was rather an overt Cobbler, and I think she served her purpose exactly as she wanted to yesterDay, garnering the most attention and the most lynch votes in lieu of a werepenguin.

[Diamond18]

They killed Lalaith? I'm shocked!

Okay, Mr. Known Innocent, what are you real thoughts on toDay? *puts pressure on tp's phantasmic shoulders*

[Roa_Aoife]

Lal chose to dream of me last night.... what a shock...

Here's the Ang analysis- I'm almost done with Diamond. After these two, Naria ought to be a walk in the park.

Ang Summary

Day 1

1st post - some in-character nonsense, likes to pick fights with phantom but can't because he's being sensible, still doesn't trust phantom, short overview of players:

Originally Posted by ang

Eonwe's contribution is slight but to be fair he's low on material at that point.

Diamond, were she not Dimwe Diamond and entitled to a little...skittling, would be still more worrying than she already is.

Valier's behaviour is normal and not that suspicious.

Boromir's first post seems to deliver little helpful thought, but he sometimes takes a while to get into his stride. The last time I accused him on a Day One he turned out to be a Ranger. And his second post is much better.

Firefoot's proposed course of action is the one I shall probably adopt, headless chickenery and all. With Boromir and the phantom she's one I'd fear most as a penguin, but that's no real basis for lynching. Yet.

2nd - disagrees with Mac about phantom's plan, thinks it's a good idea unless he's a penguin, would rather have no hints at this stage, says gifteds will make themselves known at the right time, wonders if phantom wants to lynch ordinary elves to save gifted, says that he doesn't

3rd - response to phantom, says a lynched ranger leaves a better trail than a lynched ordinary (AN: How ironic...), a lynched ordinary volunteer leaves almost no trail, states again that he thinks we shouldn't follow this idea, leaves

4th - Answering accusations, some nonsense, says he had only a little time in which to make input, and that gave him only a little to go on, hence the lack of depth in his posts, points out that Spawn has yet to do Roa and Firefoot analysis, says he analysed the people who caught his interest, again points out tha Spawn hasn't made a case against Roa or Firefoot, says he doesn't want to criticize her about it, doesn't necessarily see a case against everyone he chooses to accuse, doesn't trust phantom but doesn't see a case against him, says his posts are line of thought, points out that we can't really do a plan in masse anyways, says he was concerned about phantom's reused seer plan, says he has to vote early

5th - response to Kitanna, points out that he's as noisy evil as he is innocent, says his point about Spawn with the Roa-Firefoot analysis was a joke

6th - Shares Boromir's concern's about Lal, says she's casts a wide net, but is fishing in a wide sea, decides not to vote for her, or phantom, but doesn't like phantom's plans, will vote for either Eonwe or Kitanna

7th - says case against Kitanna is founded on her being a "backer, not a starter," thinks she just made a few mistakes, Votes Eonwe for quietness

8th - Doesn't think that Boromir, Lal, or Roa deserve a lynching, thinks Roa's case against Boromir is flimsy, doesn't want Boromir or Lal to be a victim, decides to vote for Kitanna to save Lal, also considers voting Diamond for being bored

9th - Advises Roa to look elsewhere

10th - agrees that Boromir's defensiveness is odd, wishes he had voted Diamond instead

11th - Asks if anyone else is willing to vote Kitanna to save Lal

12th - Afraid that Lal will be lynched

13th - Says goodnight, hopes Lal can be saved


Day 1 analysis

The biggest thing that stood out to me when reviewing Ang on Day 1 is that he made a point to say that he did not advocate lynching innocents to keep from accidentally lynching gifted twice. Then, towards the end of the day, he suggests lynching Kitanna in order to save Lal, going so far as to get the ball rolling himself, and making repeated requests that others join him. There is a huge discrepency between what he said and what he did.

Some other, slightly less incriminating things I saw- he continually tried to discourage the attack on Boromir, but, unlike Jenny, assumed that all involved were innocent. When I am a wolf and someone assumes I'm innocent, I laugh with glee; when I'm innocent and someone assumes I'm innocent with no real reason, I get very worried. I'm the only who knows I'm innocent except the wolves- everyone else is clueless about it. Day 1 especially is a bad time to assume innocense with out cause.

Also, his opinion on Eonwe changed drastically without Eonwe actually saying anything in between. First, Ang says Eonwe's contribution is slight, but to be fair, he had little to work with. Then, he suddenly moves him to a likely vote for being too quiet. This is what Boromir did with me, so a repeat of this behavior does not bode well.


Day 2 Summary

1st post - some nonsense, explains vote for Eonwe:

In a hurry, wanted to vote for Kitanna but didn't have time to make a case, knew Enca would show up later to contribute unlike Eonwe, forgot Naria was playing

Didn't take Boromir's defensiveness seriously, thinks suspicions of Diamond may be better placed

2nd - Admits to being around for a little longer after saying goodnight

3rd - Finds Jenny's vote impetuous, but not incriminating, says his ccase against Diamond is coming

4th - Case against Diamond, see http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...&postcount=176 because I'm too lazy to summarize that whole thing, but he does make a big deal aboutDiamond's boredom statement

5th - More about Diamond, says her voting makes her look bad, point about her interaction with Boromir, says Diamond said that she suspected that she'd been proven innocent, says he examined Roa and she still looks innocent, votes Diamond, asks people to speak up

6th - Answers Valier, explains "Dolorous"

7th - Reminds everyone that Eonwe is male, says he'd rather be accused of being a penguin than a cobbler, some nonsense about music

8th - "Yep. Thanks Valier, I know I can always rely on you to cheer me up."

9th - Remarks that Firefoot is acting oddly

10th - Wonders if anyone else thinks Diamond is suspicious

11th - Banter

12th - Isn't convinced of Valier's or Jenny's guilt, though would vote Jenny before Valier



Day 2 analysis

There's less to look through, but this is what I found:

He hurredly adresses his vote for Eonwe as not having enough time, though he had enough time to stick around, adress the attack on Boromir, and then vote Kitanna to save Lal. Never does he give a reason for his sudden switch on his thoughts about Eonwe, Nor does he supply better reason for why he wanted to attack Kitanna.

Also, he stated it on Day 1, and again on Day 2, but for some reason he likes to accuse people before having a case against them. That seems a bit backwards to me, and terribly sneaky. If you want to find someone guilty when you review them, you will. Essentially he plants seeds of doubt about a player, then helps them grow by getting evidence about the guilt.

Then, he made a direct mis-statement about Diamond. She never said that she suspected Lal had dreamed of her- she said that if Lal had dreamed of her, it would be perfectly alright by her to be revealed.

Finally, towards the end, there was a lot of posting filled with a lot of nothing. People who talk a lot without saying anything make me suspicious.

In his favor though, some of the points against him by Spawn and Kitanna weren't very good ones, and he did admit to being around at the end, though this could be a double bluff to make himself look innocent.

[Firefoot]

First off, I would like to apologize for my lack of posting yesterday. I really was just dead tired. But I've done lots of thinking (before and since), and have some things to say.

First off, I think that the two remaining penguins are Encai and Valier, although I'm more sure about Encai.

This fits with my theory (and others', as well, I've noted) that Boromir would only have one wolf in each of his lists. I looked at his "most suspicious" list, and left were Ang and Roa, but I was extremely hesitant to mark either of them as penguins because their arguments with Boro seemed too genuine to be fabricated. So I put them on the back burner for a while and looked at the other two lists. From the middle list, after I took out phantom and myself, that left Encai, Naria, and Diamond. Diamond just didn't seem guilty to me, and besides has since voted for Valier to tie the vote between her and Jenny (this only really works as reasoning if Valier is a wolf, I suppose). There wasn't a lot to either of Naria or Encai, but of interest was that in Encai's post 159, she completely hi-lighted Ang and Roa as being on Boro's probably guilty list - taking attention away from the other two lists and in effect her. Also, she voted for Jenny when the vote was tied at 4-4, assuring that it would be Jenny to be lynched because even if Lalaith voted for Valier (as she did), Jenny would still be lynched because we knew Spawn would not be voting. (Again, this only works if Valier is a wolf...)

As for Valier, she started out in her first couple posts saying that Boro was one of the "definitely guilty ones", but he soon faded out of sight. She then started attacking Ang pretty fiercely (who I'm thinking is innocent), and Naria keeps reappearing in her posts as well. Then you have her possibly evasive vote for Ang when the voting seemed fairly set to go for Lalaith while Boromir's down a couple votes.

Barring these two, I think I would look at Naria, Eonwe, and Spawn, but these three are more on my "in-between" list. These are the people I don't really know anything about... I'll probably look at them sometime toDay. Mac, Ang, Diamond, and phantom (duh) are on my likely innocent list.

YesterDay's voting:

Macalaure – 1 (Jenny 1)
Diamond – 1 (Anguirel 2)
Valier – 5 (phantom 3, Firefoot 5, Eonwe 7, Diamond 10, Lalaith 12)
Jenny – 5 (Macalaure 4, Naria 6, Roa 8, Valier 9, Encai 11)

Did not vote: Spawn

[Roa_Aoife]

I would like to note that, in my own personal perspective, I hesitate to find Ang guilty. Here's why- Boromir, our known wolf, put him in the most suspected list with Lal, Kitanna, and myself. We know that Lal and Kitanna are innocent, and I know I'm innocent. Given Boromir's past behavior concerning his fellow wolves, it would seem unlikely that he would put him on the suspected list if he were actually a wolf.

However, I do know that several players like to "change it up" a bit when repeating a role, and Boromir may have changed his play. That's why I'm not ruling Ang out.

[Valier]

*Sigh* well it looks like I will be spending most of the day defending myself. I find it quite amusing to read peoples analysis of me and the weak evidence there is against me. My voting has not been off. I voted for Ang because I think he is a WP, why else do you vote for someone. Boromir at first thought me innocent, which I found slightly odd, but I figured he was perhaps the Seer and had dreamt of me, that is why I did not vote for him at first, but of course after Lalaith revealed he was a WP, I switched my vote to him. I am innocent and I would love to stick around and help the village, but it's hard when everyone comes up with bogus stuff on you. Please I really think our Werepeguins lie in either Anguirel, Naria, Eonwe, Firefoot. I will try and give more info today on why I suspect these people. Mostly Ang and Naria

[Diamond18]

Er, Val, our reasons for suspecting you are a lot less bogus than, say, your reason for finding tp suspicious before Lal revealed him to be innocent. Also, how is your vaguely stated suspicion of Ang (and vote for him) something that we should not question, but you can pooh-pooh our suspicions and votes for you?

[Firefoot]

So, Valier, all of a sudden I'm suspicious because I suspect you? Seriously, to this point the only place you've even mentioned me is once as being innocent... As for Ang and Naria, the only reason I've really found for your suspecting them is because they *could be* crafty players as wolves. Ang seems to be a complete gut instinct. And I don't remember you mentioning Eonwe before at all.

[Roa_Aoife]

While I don't trust Valier any more than the rest of you (excluding phantom), I would like to point out that Valier never has distinct reasons for finding someone suspicious, and always goes by gut instinct. Always. And she's frighteningly accurate with her gut instincts. So, if you're looking for something to condemn her with, that ain't gonna cut it. Now, her changing her mind suddenly about someone is something worth mentioning, since I've never known her to give up a pursuit once she's after someone.

[Diamond18]

Encaitare

#60

Says that timezone will cause her to be quiet, states that she feels tp is innocent, agrees that the WW101 has been a bit boring, and doesn't think she's missed much.

#64

Says she's suspicious of Lal for early anlysis and Spawn for singling out Ang, and defends quiet people. Votes for Lal, with the qualification that she's "probably wrong."

#159

This is the first really suspicious post, in my view. She thinks that Boro would put one of his fellow penguins in his top suspects, and goes on to focus on Roa and Ang. You can chalk it up to difference of opinion, but I feel that it's more likely Boro would have put his comrades in his innocent to mildly suspicious categories. If that's true, Enca here could easily be attempting to direct the Elves away from looking at the lists where her and her feathery friend reside, and hoping to divert suspicion onto Roa and Ang. In her analysis of Roa and Ang she says that she thinks Roa is innocent and Ang is inconclusive, but this does not necessarily mean she wants the rest of us to agree. As long as we are focusing on these two, we are devoting our energies to them and not to others. By herself not finding them overly suspicious, she avoids looking as if she's attacking them.

#180

Says that she thinks Roa and Mac are innocent. For Mac she cites his questioning and challenging, his joy at being voted for, and the fact that phantom whom she trusts find him innocent.

#188

Agrees with Mac about Jenny and states intent to analyze her posts. If we are to find something avian in this, it could be that she has chosen an innocent to cling to (previous post) and is now bandwaggoning on his suspicions.

#192

Analysis of Jenny. She also says -- "TP and I have also said that Mac is innocent, and neither of us are WPs."

I find it slightly disturbing that she constantly reiterates that Phantom is innocent, and here lumps herself in with him as if she is also a known. She says she'll probably be voting for Jenny but will wait for Roa's analysis. With Mac, Phantom, and Roa I see a trend of her clinging to those who are known innocent or she claims are innocent. I also worry that she may have figured out that Jenny was a suicidal Cobbler and gratefully started going after her.

#228

Votes for Jenny, pointing to "all that has been said" supporting her suspicions.

What I don't like about this is that Jenny was the Cobbler and Enca never allowed for this, even though she claimed to be paying a great deal of attention to what other people were saying about Jenny, and both Roa and I voiced suspicions about Jenny being the Cobbler.

Conclusion:

Well, some of the things Enca's said and done are very suspicious. I can come up with reasons why they're avian. The only problem I have is that I've never played with Enca nor read a game in which she played, so I don't know how Innocent Enca behaves any more than I know how a guilty Enca might behave. I feel a bit like repeating my detective work on Boro and looking for games to read in which Enca was a wolf, or really, any game in which she played.

[the phantom]

Okay, Mr. Known Innocent, what are you real thoughts on toDay? *puts pressure on tp's phantasmic shoulders*

What, are you seriously wanting me to be active today? I figured I'd just show up at the very end to vote.

All right, all right.... thoughts....

Jenn did her job- she made the village waste a lynch on her as opposed to getting killed by the WPs. Though I guess it's good she's gone, as now no one need wonder if someone is a sneaky Cobbler.

Do you think both WPs voted for her? Did they suspect she was the Cobbler and tried to keep her alive? Do you think the WPs saw a chance to lynch Jenn over Valier and took it knowing Valier would surely be a likely vote again today? Or do you think Valier is a WP and she was barely saved by the Cobbler?

Okay. I'm going to go back and find a few Boro quotes from day 1 and say what I think about them. In my opinion, that's about the best evidence we have- the words of a known WP. The question is, can we get inside Boro's head and figure out his reasoning, or will his layers of bluffing fool us completely?

Boro on...
1) Valier

Valier and Eonwe are acting too strange to be evil penguins.

Like I said before I doubt wp's would be this eccentric and wild in the beginning. So for now there's no reason to suspect Valier.

Is Boro betting on the defending-a-fellow-WP-is-too-obvious-to-be-believable approach, or is he trying to guarantee an innocent Valier's demise if he is discovered?

2) Eonwe

Valier and Eonwe are acting too strange to be evil penguins.

Eonwe Seems like she's having some Day 1 fun, but I hope that changes from our herald.

Not as obvious as Valier, but definitely pointing towards innocent, though the statement has a slightly negative ending, and Eonwe seems ignored compared to Valier. What does that mean?

3) Firefoot

Firefoot brought up useful comment on the cobbler, one which I completely forgot about, seeing as I have no remembrance of a cobbler for a very very long time now. So Firefoot I'm ok with for now, a very logical sensible person to have around.

Firefoot, if innocent can greatly benefit the village, if penguin would probably be our demise. But we shouldn't lynch a player like Firefoot on Day 1, unless she wants to tell us a little secret that only 2 other people know?

Firefoot, hasn't said a whole lot yet, seems to be more observant so far today. Perhaps that's just because there's really not too much out there. Again, like phantom, I like the advice from her so far, but it wouldn't surprise me if she was a wolf.

For some reason I am still uneasy with Boro's talk about Firefoot. If FF is innocent, kudos to Boro for triggering a false alarm in my head.

Boro is trying to put it into people's heads that Firefoot is someone you want to have around, and yet he feels the need to say that he'd be scared of her as a wolf and that he wouldn't be surprised if she was one. What do people think about that?

4) Naria

Naria I don't know at this point. Naria seems to be one of those silent contributors. Doesn't have to post a lot (unlike me) to have solid input and contribution to the village. I will be expecting to see more substance instead of just, hi I'm tired bye, but in this early going there's no reason to cry penguin.

Naria and Encaitare both haven't posted anything yet. Well Naria did, but I'm not counting that. So, I can't make a decision on them yet at all.

What, is Naria playing in this game? Could've fooled me. She's being very quiet and under the radar. She didn't do enough to get a good reaction from Boro.

5) Enca

Naria and Encaitare both haven't posted anything yet. Well Naria did, but I'm not counting that. So, I can't make a decision on them yet at all.

Same thing as Naria- Enca hasn't given me enough to be comfortable with her. I'd almost be willing to vote for either of them just to get rid of their silence.

(I say something like that every game, don't I)

6) Ang

Anguirel, I must say Spawns comments were very intriguing on Anguirel. At first it seemed to me like Anguirel was going off with what he had at the time, but good points have been raised against him. I'm going to hold off until he gets back.

Boro puts Ang on the most suspicious list, and clearly paints Spawn as the reason why. What is the purpose? If Ang is a WP, then Boro is trying to show his suspicion of him to make himself look good, while at the same time making a statement that shows he will not be voting for him. Or perhaps he is trying to make Spawn look like she is setting up an innocent Ang, which would speak to Spawn's innocence as well.

7) Spawn

Spawn backs up and says she was going to say something like the phantom, for everyone to just leave clues on who they feel is innocent. Seems a little fishy to me...trying to associate yourself with an innocent perhaps?

Most of them I already explained why they appear innocent before. Spawn for her input on Anguirel she seems innocent. I don't know yet what to make of Anguirel, but Spawn's input is beneficial, helpful, and usually I don't suspect the one's who announce stronger suspicions this early. For it's a bold move for a WP to stick their neck out and first really start the suspicions.

Is Boro's last statement meant to stick in our heads and lead us astray? He has Spawn firmly on his innocent list after finding her fishy early. Is he trying to bring an innocent to his side?

8) Diamond

I can't find much significance in Roa's, phantom's, or Diamond's, posts yet, so there's nothing for me to go off of.

And Diamond has just confused me so far. The cobbler business seemed awkward to me, I'm glad she came out and explained it more, but she's not done anything to make me feel like she's innocent like the "innocent looking" group.

So, do you see anything unusual there?

9) Roa

I can't find much significance in Roa's, phantom's, or Diamond's, posts yet, so there's nothing for me to go off of.

Roa there is a common misconception about theories, everyone seems to think it's just baseless and preposterous. Now a true theory is a hypothesis based UPON facts. So, the facts are sitting out there and then based on those facts you form a hypothesis which = theory. And for everybody except the wps and the Seer all we have to find the penguins are theories. Which means taking facts, like what people say, how they vote, who's killed...etc taking that knowledge and using it to present a hypothesis that is backed up by facts (aka a theory).

Roa has come in established a presence in the village, but really hasn't if you know what I mean. Also, as I remarked before I don't agree with the "don't throw around theories or baseless arguments," and what do I propose you want us to do to catch a penguin miss Guardian?

Roa's acts are strange but it actually in a wierd way makes her look more innocent to me. She's just being far too aggressive

He mostly argues with Roa, and places her on the most suspicious part of his list, and then later says she's innocent. Is that suspicious? Was Lalaith on the right track or not?

10) Mac

Macalaure is just catching onto the game, which means he's one of the most innocent looking ones to me so far. His lack of understanding and his objection to phantom's proposal speaks towards his innocence. There's no reason for penguins to attract that much attention to themselves early in the beginning. Seems like he's your ordinary innocent that is trying to help the village.

Is Boro trying to cover for his brand new WP buddy? Or is he maybe trying to gain a friend early by extending a hand of trust?

Oh, and I just thought I'd say that we shouldn't be too worried if we don't catch a WP today. Considering the population of the village the odds are against us. And really, we've gotten a WP and the Cob so far, so we've got to miss sooner or later.

Just so long as we don't stay off track for long.

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

While I don't trust Valier any more than the rest of you (excluding phantom), I would like to point out that Valier never has distinct reasons for finding someone suspicious, and always goes by gut instinct. Always. And she's frighteningly accurate with her gut instincts. So, if you're looking for something to condemn her with, that ain't gonna cut it.

The fallacy in this is that Valier's usual modus operandi provides the perfect cover for a WereValier. No matter what she does, or how randomly she accuses, she can always excuse herself by saying that's just her. So in the end it's not much of a defense, is it? I think I made allowances for her game style in my analysis, yet in this last post she looks on any suspicion of her with disdain, as if we should never suspect her of using her reputation to her own (evil) advantage. Valier's instincts are great, but they're only of use when we know her identity, because she could so easily lead us astray if we trusted her too much.

Anyway, I was just saying, Valier, you can't complain too loudly about us suspecting you. Thing is, you usually do understand our perspective (not being able to trust your good intentions on faith alone) a little better than this.

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by the phantom

What, are you seriously wanting me to be active today? I figured I'd just show up at the very end to vote.

Who are you and what have you done with our phantom?

Do you think both WPs voted for her? Did they suspect she was the Cobbler and tried to keep her alive? Do you think the WPs saw a chance to lynch Jenn over Valier and took it knowing Valier would surely be a likely vote again today? Or do you think Valier is a WP and she was barely saved by the Cobbler?

I'm leaning toward the Valier-being-saved line of thought at the moment. I'm not sure about who I think the other WP is, yet.

1) Valier
Is Boro betting on the defending-a-fellow-WP-is-too-obvious-to-be-believable approach, or is he trying to guarantee an innocent Valier's demise if he is discovered?

Are you sure Boro was exactly thinking about his death, so much as trying to direct the village's thoughts? I mean, I'm sure he didn't plan to die soon, and he wouldn't have had Lal not revealed him.

2) Eonwe
Not as obvious as Valier, but definitely pointing towards innocent, though the statement has a slightly negative ending, and Eonwe seems ignored compared to Valier. What does that mean?

I think that Eonwe is generally viewed as less trustworthy than, say, Valier, by villages, and Boro could be playing off that.

3) Firefoot
Boro is trying to put it into people's heads that Firefoot is someone you want to have around, and yet he feels the need to say that he'd be scared of her as a wolf and that he wouldn't be surprised if she was one. What do people think about that?

Worrisome. I want to analyze Firefoot but haven't gotten to it yet.

4) Naria
What, is Naria playing in this game? Could've fooled me. She's being very quiet and under the radar. She didn't do enough to get a good reaction from Boro.

The story of Naria's ww-life, methinks.

5) Enca
Same thing as Naria- Enca hasn't given me enough to be comfortable with her. I'd almost be willing to vote for either of them just to get rid of their silence.

(I say something like that every game, don't I)

I'm floundering and filp-flopping over Enca in my mind. Just don't know her style. Have you played with her?

6) Ang
Boro puts Ang on the most suspicious list, and clearly paints Spawn as the reason why. What is the purpose? If Ang is a WP, then Boro is trying to show his suspicion of him to make himself look good, while at the same time making a statement that shows he will not be voting for him. Or perhaps he is trying to make Spawn look like she is setting up an innocent Ang, which would speak to Spawn's innocence as well.

I am quite suspicious of Spawn at the moment and suspect this to be a Boro/Spawn concerted effort against Ang. But I could be wrong.

7) Spawn
Is Boro's last statement meant to stick in our heads and lead us astray? He has Spawn firmly on his innocent list after finding her fishy early. Is he trying to bring an innocent to his side?

He did do something like that with Kuru in WWX, which gives me pause in my Spawn suspecting.

8) Diamond
So, do you see anything unusual there?

What? That's all I get?

9) Roa
He mostly argues with Roa, and places her on the most suspicious part of his list, and then later says she's innocent. Is that suspicious? Was Lalaith on the right track or not?

Yeah, uh, that's a bit weird. I'd forgot about the innocent statement. I suppose I should do a Roa analysis, because I haven't done her yet. Has anyone? (Enca did a slight one, but I don't think anyone's done an exhaustive yet. Not sure.)

10) Mac
Is Boro trying to cover for his brand new WP buddy? Or is he maybe trying to gain a friend early by extending a hand of trust?

I feel like Mac is innocent, so I think this may be friend-gaining tactic.... I think.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

I'm still catching up with Day 2, but considering that it's past 3 am, I doubt I manage to post anything sensible before I fall asleep on my keyboard. Just wanted to say to those who out of courtesy refrained from accusing me yesterDay that feel free to go after me as much as you please now since I'm back.

[Roa_Aoife]

OKay, sorry this took so long; I kept getting side tracked.

Dimwe Diamond

Day 1 Summary

1st post - vote for Eomer, retraction for Eomer, in-character nonsense

2nd - nonsense response to Valier's nonsense statement, doesn't understand the discussion about the cobbler, will be glad if the cobbler goes down, the now infamous "seer revealing the cobbler" plan

3rd - Finds discussion boring, wants to hear some crazy theories, doesn't see much point in early analysis, response to Boromir about vote for Eomer, explains that she didn't want to the seer to come forward just for the cobbler.

4th - points out that phantom almost always uses arrows

5th - gut feelings on people, thinks she may be way off

Valier - normal
Herself - penguin
Naria - worrisome
Mac - innocent
Lal - not sure
Firefoot - innocent
Jenny - innocent
Roa - where'd she go?
phantom - okay
Boromir - innocent
Spawn - innocent
Kitanna - not acting evil
Enca - nothing, never played with before
Ang - okay
Eonwe - shady

6th - response to Lal, restates that she has niggling feelings about Lal, Roa, Eonwe, Naria, Enca, valier

7th - long statement about her opinion on summaries and analysis, prefers to wait until there are some deaths so that there are knowns before analyzing, also prefers to just link posts rather than make people slog through what they've already read, says she won't tell others not to post summaries, thinks the bickering is making everyone involved look a bit foul, worries that the wolves may be hiding better because of it

8th - isn't confident about voting, Votes Lal, says some of statements about other players don't sit well


Day 1 analysis

Concerning her seer-cobbler idea, it didn't seem at all odd to me. When I read it, I simply thought that she meant if the seer knew who the cobbler was at the time she came forward, then we could simply ignore that person for the remainder of the game, rather than waste a lynch. What bothers me is how she addressed the concerns about it. She said that all she meant was that when the seer came forward with some penguins, if the seer also knew who the cobbler was, she could point that out, too. This is a wholly obvious statement- the very kind she was putting down when she stated she was bored by the discussion. Strange bit of hypocrisy...

I also find her statement about not likeing to analyze things before some deaths not very Diamond like at all. She knows perfectly well that this has caught a wolf on Day 1, with out seer reveals. I don't know, but it seems the usual Diamond spark is missing.

And then there was her lists- she told Lal that she had bad feelings about her, myself, Eonwe, Naria, Enca, valier. However, her previous post showed that she didn't know anything about Enca, who had yet to post. How could she be worried about someone who had yet to show? It can't be past experience, because Diamond said that she had never played with Enca before.

There was also the rather bold statement of declaring herself a penguin.

Day 2 summary

1st post - Tells Lal that if she was the one dreamed that it's okay to reveal, but advises her to keep silent unless the person was going to get lynched, advises her to be silent about the hunter, says she can now see the strategy Lal was trying to employ, remarks about Arthur Dent, says she's going to go back through Boromir's posts

2nd - response to Mac, says Mac just seemed too overt in posting to be guilty, says it's too easy for newbies to sail along quietly and not rock the boat, claiming newbieness, and Mac didn't do that, which makes him look innocent, response about cobbler, rule posting

3rd - banter with Lal

4th - Points out that she's only seen Boromir as a seer, which makes understanding his wolfish posts somewhat difficult, thinks that she may dig through the grimoire to see what she can find, decides to wait for phantom

5th - wants to know if anyone posted pms at the end of TiG X

6th - analysis of Boromir's behavior in TiG X, notes that he never put phantom or Lalaith in his most suspicicious list, says that it is quite likely that Boromir put one wolf in his Not suspicious group, and one in his somewhat suspicious group, inclined to think Ang and Roa innocent for the time being, points out the flaw that Boromir might be playing differently

7th - response to Lal about Boromir's behavior, notes that he may use the same mentality that helped him win previously, or try something new that phantom and Lal wouldn't recognizee, points out that the people Boromir's habits point to have also made suspicious votes, says she will likely vote for Valier, Jenny, Spawn, or Eonwe, gives reasons for looking at all but Valier, thinks Ang looks rather gennuine in his attack on her

8th - Valier analysis http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...&postcount=185

Over all finds her slippery.

9th - Spawn analysis http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...&postcount=190

Finds Spawn to be rather odd, but wants to lay off her since she'll be gone all day

10th - Eonwe Analysis http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...&postcount=194

Eonwe is evil and must die. Hopes mod fire will destroy him.

11th - Explains shoemaker to Mac

12th - Jenny analysis http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...&postcount=212

Either a preoccupied ordo or the cobbler

13th - Agrees with Roa about Jenny, still believes Jenny to be cobbler, says she will try to get Eonwe lynched tomorrow if he votes just to stay alive, finds Spawn the most penguinesque, but doesn't want to vote for her because of absense, remark about music choices

14th - Sympathizes with Ang, thanks roa for vote count

15th - Votes Valier

16th - Agrees with Ang that she is mildly suspicious

Day 2 analysis

She never gave a real reason for going after Valier, excep that she was on Boromir's likely innocent list.

Also, she repeated that she had never played with Boromir and so didn't know his style, and she also noted the same with Enca. The Diamond I know has never let a lack of knowledge about a player stop her from analyzing and making assumptions about them.

Again, she agrees with Ang that she's suspicious, a rather bold move akin to her first day assertion that she's a penguin. So, she's not confident enough to know who to vote for, but she is confident enough to make that kind of statement?

[Roa_Aoife]

One other thing I've noticed about Diamond that's odd- her willingness, almost eagerness, to go along with whatever phantom says. Compare this to Deuling Wizards, where an innocent Diamond argued against the revealed Good Wizard's ideas of supplying suspects. For someone who is usually an independant firebrand, she's been rather... yeilding this game. A Diamond who goes along with others is a Diamond that just doesn't exist on the side of good.

[Encaitare]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

in Encai's post 159, she completely hi-lighted Ang and Roa as being on Boro's probably guilty list - taking attention away from the other two lists and in effect her.

Because I felt that Boromir might have been bold enough to have put a fellow wolf on that list. That was the purpose of that post.

Originally Posted by Firefoot

Also, she voted for Jenny when the vote was tied at 4-4, assuring that it would be Jenny to be lynched because even if Lalaith voted for Valier (as she did), Jenny would still be lynched because we knew Spawn would not be voting. (Again, this only works if Valier is a wolf...)

I said I was going to vote for Jenny earlier that Day, and then I did. Wouldn't it have been even more suspicious if I'd changed my mind at a crucial point in the voting, rather than keeping my word?

I'll be back in several hours, hopefully to do something more useful than defending myself. Self-defense in the game of Werewolf does tend to be rather futile.

[Valier]

Ok Ok now I am not pooh-poohing anyone for suspecting me at all!! I was only saying I find it amusing, all the stuff people come up with. As for me putting Firefoot on my list, I do this because I find her post about me to be just plain off and the whole thing is based on if I am a WP. Oh and Eonwe...He's always on my list and this time he has been extra weird in saying he won't be around until he feels like it. I don't really care if others want to vote for me, that's fine. But you will all see when I am gone that once again I am an Ordo. I know it is hard to take someone on their word so I won't say anything about this again. If I must die, so you guys may see, so be it, but heed what I have said.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Jenn did her job- she made the village waste a lynch on her as opposed to getting killed by the WPs. Though I guess it's good she's gone, as now no one need wonder if someone is a sneaky Cobbler.

Say what you wantm it's one less thing to worry about. At least it was a suicidal cobbler and not a misleading cobbler.

Do you think both WPs voted for her? Did they suspect she was the Cobbler and tried to keep her alive? Do you think the WPs saw a chance to lynch Jenn over Valier and took it knowing Valier would surely be a likely vote again today? Or do you think Valier is a WP and she was barely saved by the Cobbler?

Well, after Jenny was revealed as the cobbler, I went back and looked at her posts to see if she had tried to hint her status, or if she was trying to protect someone in the same manner she tried to protect Boromir. I smacked myself in the head when I found it.

Originally Posted by Jenny

And as I can see it, a bomb and a...a...nothing do not point to penguins. Those cute little birds couldn't possibly have made a bomb. I don't know anything about pyrotechnics, but I'm sure it requires opposable thumbs, or fingers, or something.

Originally Posted by Jenny

Those poor pretty penguins...I just never expected they might be evil! My dear Phantom (which phantom were you, again?), your extensive knowledge of them frightens me, for I know little about anything.

It's obscure- I didn't even pick up on it till I read the narration of her death, and then I remembered her saying this. It's possible however, that the penguins did pick up on it, especially with behavior towards Boromir, whom she likely suspected to be a penguin.

Boro on...
1) Valier
Is Boro betting on the defending-a-fellow-WP-is-too-obvious-to-be-believable approach, or is he trying to guarantee an innocent Valier's demise if he is discovered?

Even if Boromir wasn't planning to die, such a connection is incredibly obvious. He had to be aware of the possibility of his death, and know that this owuld be looked at later. It seems like an attempt to point a big finger at Valier. From this alone, I would say no.

2) Eonwe
Not as obvious as Valier, but definitely pointing towards innocent, though the statement has a slightly negative ending, and Eonwe seems ignored compared to Valier. What does that mean?

From the quotes alone, it appears he's just coming up with something to say about Eonwe. He was going along with the general consensus that Eonwe was quiet and needed to be around more.

3) Firefoot
For some reason I am still uneasy with Boro's talk about Firefoot. If FF is innocent, kudos to Boro for triggering a false alarm in my head.

Boro is trying to put it into people's heads that Firefoot is someone you want to have around, and yet he feels the need to say that he'd be scared of her as a wolf and that he wouldn't be surprised if she was one. What do people think about that?

This does worry me. He's pointing people away from her, but at the same time distancing himself. It's very... convenient.

4) Naria
What, is Naria playing in this game? Could've fooled me. She's being very quiet and under the radar. She didn't do enough to get a good reaction from Boro.

From his statements alone, he's pointing people away from her. Naria is a werewolf ninja, though, and Boromir is echoing most others' thoughts on this.

5) Enca
Same thing as Naria- Enca hasn't given me enough to be comfortable with her. I'd almost be willing to vote for either of them just to get rid of their silence.

(I say something like that every game, don't I)

Boromir mentioned Enca without saying anything about her. On the other hand, there wasn't anything to say about her.

6) Ang
Boro puts Ang on the most suspicious list, and clearly paints Spawn as the reason why. What is the purpose? If Ang is a WP, then Boro is trying to show his suspicion of him to make himself look good, while at the same time making a statement that shows he will not be voting for him. Or perhaps he is trying to make Spawn look like she is setting up an innocent Ang, which would speak to Spawn's innocence as well.

It seems more like Boromir was jumping onto a good looking case.

7) Spawn
Is Boro's last statement meant to stick in our heads and lead us astray? He has Spawn firmly on his innocent list after finding her fishy early. Is he trying to bring an innocent to his side?

I think he was looking for people to suspect (always a problem as a wolf) and then backed off because he was leaching off her case against Ang.

8) Diamond
So, do you see anything unusual there?

Stating confusion with a certain player- I've done it to innocents as a wolf, I don't see why he wouldn't either. At the same time, he may just be attempting to distance himself.

9) Roa
He mostly argues with Roa, and places her on the most suspicious part of his list, and then later says she's innocent. Is that suspicious? Was Lalaith on the right track or not?

First he doesn't see any significance in my one post, then he uses that same post as a reason for putting me on his most suspected list, then he backs off and says I'm just a misguided innocent. And Ang and Jenny said, "Really, Roa, there's no contradiction at all...." GRRRR! I TOLD YOU SO!

Again, he needed people to be suspicious of. I was an easy target since I was absent. Then, I showed up, called him on it, and he says that maybe I'm just a misguided innocent. Which is funny, because that's the exact same thing I said about Valier when she had me pegged as the EW, and I was afraid her over-reaction would get her lynched and then make people take her seriously.

And Lal was right about one thing- I am devilishly brilliant, and I can pull off looking helpful when guilty. I like to think that I'm helpful when innocent, too, though. I did spot a wolf and a cobbler, after all.

10) Mac
Is Boro trying to cover for his brand new WP buddy? Or is he maybe trying to gain a friend early by extending a hand of trust?

I suspect the ol' "Get the newbie on your side" trick. The idea behind this trick being that the newbie will be grateful that someone in the game believes them, so they don't feel so lost. Mac seems a bit too clever for that though.

Oh, and I just thought I'd say that we shouldn't be too worried if we don't catch a WP today. Considering the population of the village the odds are against us. And really, we've gotten a WP and the Cob so far, so we've got to miss sooner or later.

Just so long as we don't stay off track for long.

Such an optimist....

[Roa_Aoife]

okay, I'm going to do my Naria analysis now. As she only has five posts, this shouldn't take too long. Though, As a warning to Eonwe- if he doesn't honestly contribute today I'm voting for him. His statement about not having enough to work with is hogwash. There's plenty to work with. Almost too much. Yesterday he voted mainly to save himself. If he can't shape up, well, I'm not putting up with it.

[Diamond18]

Firefoot

#13

Incharacter, followed by discussion of the Cobbler (doesn't think it'll be a problem till later so doesn't worry about it now) followed by joking accusations of Roa and tp. The one thing I notice is that Jenny was also an advocate of not being concerned with the Cobbler. However, Firefoot's points about it are valid, here.

#29

Clarification on a question about the Cobbler.

#37

Comments on the oddity of people doing analysis already, but doesn't find it necessarily suspicious. Teases tp.

#56

She replies to someone about Spawn, and there's another anon. quote she agrees with.

#71

Says Jenny, Mac, and Diamond all feel innocent and votes for Lalaith, saying she just isn't sitting right.

#168

Says she's tired, makes a few comments, agrees with something tp said about Valier, and finds Ang's vote suspicious but isn't convinced he's guilty.

#209

Says she's not any less tired, isn't concerned about dying, and votes Valier, saying it's not random but giving no further reason.

#244

Builds a case against Enca and Val as the two remaining penguins, being more certain about Enca. Lists Naria, Eonwe, and Spawn as "in betweens" and Mac, Ang, & Diamond as likely innocent.

#248

Agrees with my post about Valier's defensiveness.


Conclusion:

Overall her posting has been a lot sparser than usual, and most of her posts don't say much. Her most substantial post is #244. I don't feel comfortable with this, but if it is due large in part to RL, I'd like to hold off seriously suspecting her. The worst looking things right now are her vote for Lal and Boro's opinions on her.

[Roa_Aoife]

The major flaw in Firefoot's attack on Valier is this- her whole case is based on the assumption the Valier is a penguin. There isn't a single piece of solid, unbiased evidence in it. It's all speculation, which is no case at all. Phantom's case against Valier had facts in it; Diamond's case against Vailer had facts in it. Firefoot's case is sorely lacking these, and that is something I know she isn't known for doing when innocent.

And, really, attacking Valier because she used her gut is like attacking anyone for playing the same way they usually do. Sure it could be a great cover, but that doesn't mean it is.

[Valier]

Roa that is exactly the reason I put Firefoot on my list of suspects today! I could not quite find the words to express what I meant, but you did it beautifully.

[Valier]

Originally Posted by Roa

Now, her changing her mind suddenly about someone is something worth mentioning, since I've never known her to give up a pursuit once she's after someone

May I ask when did I change my mind? All I did was add a few more candidates to my suspect list.

[Roa_Aoife]

Naria

1st post - Isn't going to be around for the next 11 hours

2nd post - Says she just had enough time to read through, thinks Lal stood out, votes Lal

3rd post - Retracts to Boromir, apologizes

4th post - looking grim, wonders why Kitanna revealed herself

5th post - Apologizes for absence, says the cases against Jenny make her look quite evil, and her pop up vote for Mac is unnerving, and her style is similar to what she's done as a wolf, Votes Jenny

Her vote for Lal is rather sinnister, and it's possible she may have been bandwagoning. However, I don't doubt that she cross posted with Lal's reveal. She's far too intelligent to vote for a revealed seer. Her vote for Jenny semms equally bandwagony, though.

And... that's all I got.

[Roa_Aoife]

May I ask when did I change my mind? All I did was add a few more candidates to my suspect list.

I don't know. Firefoot said you thought she was innocent, and then suddenly thought she was guilty, though she didn't provide any quotes or posts in which this happened. But let's not let little things like facts get in our way.

[Firefoot]

Can I quote myself?

As for Valier, she started out in her first couple posts saying that Boro was one of the "definitely guilty ones", but he soon faded out of sight. She then started attacking Ang pretty fiercely (who I'm thinking is innocent), and Naria keeps reappearing in her posts as well. Then you have her possibly evasive vote for Ang when the voting seemed fairly set to go for Lalaith while Boromir's down a couple votes.

I did come up with reasoning for Valier. Perhaps I should have put this first. And maybe she really is just playing the way she normally does. But usually I'm one of the ones who argues "that's just the way she plays" and it doesn't bother me. But this time she is bothering me.

Diamond:

The major flaw in Firefoot's attack on Valier is this- her whole case is based on the assumption the Valier is a penguin. There isn't a single piece of solid, unbiased evidence in it. It's all speculation, which is no case at all. Phantom's case against Valier had facts in it; Diamond's case against Vailer had facts in it. Firefoot's case is sorely lacking these, and that is something I know she isn't known for doing when innocent.

A lot of it did include Valier, I will agree to this. But saying none of it is unbiased is not fair. Probably the biggest problem with my post is it is organized incorrectly. Valier was the one I started suspecting first, and I used that in looking for other wolves. You can do that when there are more than one. But when I combined that with other bits that I had, it made sense to me.

Overall her posting has been a lot sparser than usual, and most of her posts don't say much.

My Day 1 posts almost never say much substantial. Day 2, I had RL issues. So lynch me. Day 3, now I'm here.

[Firefoot]

May I ask when did I change my mind? All I did was add a few more candidates to my suspect list.

When did I say you changed your mind? I don't see you providing quotes or post numbers, either, Roa. Although, now that I think about it, you did about Boromir. You suspected him at the start, and then didn't say anything more about him.

Firefoot said you thought she was innocent, and then suddenly thought she was guilty, though she didn't provide any quotes or posts in which this happened. But let's not let little things like facts get in our way.

It's like post 68 or 58 or something. On page 2.

[Firefoot]

My comments in 258 were meant to be read in conjunction with Diamond's post immediately preceding, although you all seem intent on reading it as stand alone, which does rather change the reading of it.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

As for Valier, she started out in her first couple posts saying that Boro was one of the "definitely guilty ones", but he soon faded out of sight.

I assume you mean this post? You do realize that, as the 11th post of the day, was utter nonsense, not to be taken seriously? If you mean something else, provide a link, a post, a quote. I'm not seeing what you're seeing. Show me where you're finding this.

And that first quote attrubuted to Diamond is me.

Edit: cross posted

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

When did I say you changed your mind? I don't see you providing quotes or post numbers, either, Roa. Although, now that I think about it, you did about Boromir. You suspected him at the start, and then didn't say anything more about him.

That quote is Valier's. You must have us confused now, because I remained quite dogged in pursuit of Boromir. Go back and read it. And you said it here:

Originally Posted by Firefoot

So, Valier, all of a sudden I'm suspicious because I suspect you? Seriously, to this point the only place you've even mentioned me is once as being innocent... As for Ang and Naria, the only reason I've really found for your suspecting them is because they *could be* crafty players as wolves. Ang seems to be a complete gut instinct. And I don't remember you mentioning Eonwe before at all.

That is saying that she changed her mind. I mentioned that looking at Valier for using her gut was somewhat silly, but that noting a change of mind wasn't. Valier was resonding to me. Be more careful in your readings. Your sporatic and flawfilled defence is not helping your case.

It's like post 68 or 58 or something. On page 2.

Don't be lazy, go get it.

[Firefoot]

That quote is Valier's. You must have us confused now, because I remained quite dogged in pursuit of Boromir. Go back and read it.

I know it's Valier's. I was responding to that. It was just that one comment that I was responding to you, which is why I addressed that sentence to you. The rest was to Valier.

And I'll be lazy if I darned well want to be. It's post 68. Just for that you can go look at it yourself.

[Roa_Aoife]

Valier was the one I started suspecting first, and I used that in looking for other wolves. You can do that when there are more than one.

Why?

My comments in 258 were meant to be read in conjunction with Diamond's post immediately preceding, although you all seem intent on reading it as stand alone, which does rather change the reading of it.

Is there a reason I should automatically assume that you weren't speaking for yourself? You stated your opinion as your own, and trying to bunny off of what Diamond was saying, or link yourself to her for the sake of looking less suspicious doesn't make you look better.

Edit: Cross posted- I'm not going to make your case for you.

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

My Day 1 posts almost never say much substantial. Day 2, I had RL issues. So lynch me. Day 3, now I'm here.

I said:

I don't feel comfortable with this, but if it is due large in part to RL, I'd like to hold off seriously suspecting her.

[Firefoot]

How about the title "What Diamond said"?

Why?

I've already explained this, and I even quoted myself.

[Roa_Aoife]

Just because you agreed with her doesn't mean I shouldn't take your comment for it's own value. It's too easy to hide by just agreeing with other people. I looked at your comment for what it was. And it's not 258- that's Valier again.

[Firefoot]

Sorry, 248.

And, yes, take it for it's own value, but look at the meaning behind it as well, please.

[Roa_Aoife]

I've already explained this, and I even quoted myself.

No, you gave some loose reasons with out any actual evidence to back them.

[Roa_Aoife]

And, yes, take it for it's own value, but look at the meaning behind it as well, please.

Enlighten me. What was that?

[Firefoot]

Enlighten me. What was that?

I already said this too! That it was meant to be read in conjunction with Diamond's post.

I'm not even going to respond to you anymore, because you're not listening to me anyways. If you want to see me as a penguin, there's nothing I can do to stop that.