Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I agree with Alcarillo, and not just because he's never done anything wrong in his life before (I mean, just look at his wife and offspring — what a champion!)

He would not have wanted to kill SPM to get this unwanted attention. It would have been so much easier for him to lie low for many days yet. That's why Jenny is likely not a wolf either. Of course, either one could be the third wolf who was outvoted, but I'm pretty much dealing with chances and statistical probability here.

Now:

SPM's list of EW's wolf picks overlaps with mine quite a bit. He has: Cailín, Lalaith, Caranlondien, Celuien, Valier, Kitanna, Azaelia, Naria, Oddwen, Alcarillo, Roa, Firefoot, Diamond and Gurthang.

SPM made sure to let Oddwen off the hook because of her no-vote and how it would be conspicuous for a wolf to do that. Now he's dead. Significant?

Anyway, I let the following off the hook: Firefoot (because she's a likely Seer dream), Diamond (who will get herself lynched by being loud and troublesome ), Valier, Naria and Azaelia (the quiet, shady, lynchable types) Alcarillo (as stated above), and Cailín (simply because I would not see her lynched and I would die for her).

The more I think about it the more I realise that sweet Kitanna would be a brilliant pick from the EW.

But I'm not choosing her. And I'm not choosing Celuien either, poor woman, she'd never murder her husband — surely. So, if SPM was onto something (and let's be honest: if he was way off then the wolves would not have picked him) and that's why he lies dead, I would pick a lynching candidate from the following:

Oddwen, Lalaith, Caranlondien, Roa or Gurthang. Two wolves in that lot!

[Cailín]

I have been thinking some more on possible wolves…

Both other lynching candidates yesterDay seem unlikely choices for the EW. Lommy's flip-flopping style is well known, which always makes her a suspicious character early on in the game and while Nogrod's intelligence is acknowledged by us all, his controversial tactics tend to get him in trouble. If I were the Evil Wizard, I would choose neither (sorry). And of course, after yesterDay's events, I would not choose any of those gathering many votes.

So who could be the wolves then?

I doubt that either Lhuna or Nilp are wizards - because of timezones and just general lack of time. However, in a large village such as this one, Lhunardawen would be a defendable original wolf choice. I'd stay away from Nilp, who is really too insane to be trusted, even after seeming sensible yesterDay.

Other original choices, and this list is similar to Saucy's, might include Firefoot, Lalaith, Gurthang, Caranlondien, Celuien, possibly Roa, Diamond or Kath. The first five are people who usually manage to stay alive for a pretty long time and often have a key part in victory either way. Diamond and Kath are less 'safe' options, but both can be dangerous wolves.

Also, though both Eomer and Phantom will disagree with me, I do think it is possible the EW might have turned one of those with a bad reputation, just for tradition's sake. I don't suppose it is the phantom - at least not from the start - but Eomer, Spawn or Feanor I would not so easily disregard. However, I consider those mentioned above to be the wiser and more obvious choices.

After yesterDay, I should think the EW would have chosen someone inconspicuous last Night. Numbers, not the composition of the team, are probably most important to him at the moment. Someone like Kitanna perhaps? Or one of those who firmly established their innocence yesterDay? At least not someone from Eomer's list of possibilities, especially if we may assume that those are indeed the people the EW first considered.

Much depends, however, on who the Evil Wizard is. We all approach the game in a different matter. While some people may use cold, hard logic in their choices of minions, others may be driven by feelings of friendship and family.

And as for who the wizards might be, I have made a list of possibilities but that I shall keep to myself for a while. It is not really helpful and I think we will all more or less come to the same conclusions in that respect anyway. That does not mean I am not still looking for the source of all these monsters.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Belated Happy Mother's Day to all mums here, real and in-game.

Okay, now let's get down to business.

Nobody bothers to take cross-votes into consideration, except probably me. Here are the ones I saw:

(Times are in GMT +8)

3.54: Morm --> Kath (Nogrod 1, Eomer 1, Lommy 1, Loki 2, Nilp 1, Oddwen 1, SPM 1, Kath 1)
3.56: Naria --> Nogrod (Nogrod 2, Eomer 1, Lommy 1, Loki 2, Nilp 1, Oddwen 1, SPM 1, Kath 1)

4.00: Eomer --> Nogrod (Nogrod 3, Eomer 1, Lommy 1, Loki 2, Nilp 1, Oddwen 1, SPM 1, Kath 1)
4.01: Lommy --> Nogrod (Nogrod 4, Eomer 1, Lommy 1, Loki 2, Nilp 1, Oddwen 1, SPM 1, Kath 1)
4.03: Alcarillo --> SPM (Nogrod 4, Eomer 1, Lommy 1, Loki 2, Nilp 1, Oddwen 1, SPM 2, Kath 1)

4.32: Fea --> Loki (Nogrod 4, Eomer 1, Lommy 2, Loki 3, Nilp 1, Oddwen 1, SPM 2, Kath 1)
4.33: Loki --> Nogrod (Nogrod 5, Eomer 1, Lommy 2, Loki 3, Nilp 1, Oddwen 1, SPM 2, Kath 1)

4.58: Lalaith --> Loki (Nogrod 5, Eomer 1, Lommy 2, Loki 5, Nilp 1, Oddwen 1, SPM 2, Kath 1)
4.59: Celuien --> Lommy (Nogrod 5, Eomer 1, Lommy 3, Loki 5, Nilp 1, Oddwen 1, SPM 2, Kath 1)

5.33: Valier --> Loki (Nogrod 5, Eomer 1, Lommy 4, Loki 6, Nilp 1, Oddwen 1, SPM 2, Kath 1, Alcarillo 1)
5.35: Kitanna --> Loki (Nogrod 5, Eomer 1, Lommy 4, Loki 7, Nilp 1, Oddwen 1, SPM 2, Kath 1, Alcarillo 1)
5.35: Azaelia --> Loki (Nogrod 5, Eomer 1, Lommy 4, Loki 8, Nilp 1, Oddwen 1, SPM 2, Kath 1, Alcarillo 1)

The underlines are about ties made and broken.

Now cross-votes are interesting because the cross-voters haven't had a chance to factor their fellow cross-voter's vote into the tally by the time they voted. Therefore, so far as we are concerned, Valier, Kitanna, or Zali gave Loki's 6th vote.

Interesting, eh? But probably useless for now.

I voted for Nogrod yesterDAY because:

a) he was on my possible Wizard's list, and I wanted to see some reaction, or lack of it, from him;
b) he had already posted much by the time I had to vote.
c) Now, the phantom was also on my possible Wizard's list, and he had posted much then, too, so I went with Nogrod because he's already up against someone: Loki. They ended up being the two to compete for the dubious honour of DAY 1 lynchee. Wow.

I got what I needed out of the strife. And I found Valier's vote most interesting . . .

++Valier

That's it. See you tomorrow, then.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Okay, why Sauce?

There was no Seer on Day 1, so the Wolves didn't work on the basis to try to catch a Gifted. I also doubt that they tought Sauce to be the GW. If Sauce suspected someone correctly, it's not because he would have had more information than the rest of us, but because of his own logics. The Wolves knew that, and Sauce's death seems to tell less than deaths in normal Wolf-possessed Villages.

Originally Posted by Cailín

The kill, however, tells us little enough: it was not the result of careful planning and discussions -for our wolves cannot do this-

That's true. If the Wolves didn't unanimously pick Sauce, the one who picked someone else is probably looking for reasons for his/her comrades' choice trying to identify them. If we can identify them first, it'd be great because if we don't lynch a Wolf toDay, there will be 2 kills a Night from now on. As has been said toDay, we should probably give some thought on who the Wolves could be, too, and not just the EW.

Killing Sauce could have been a more or less random choice. It's great to have him on your side, but he can be a scary opponent. Maybe the Wolves wanted to take care of a possible threat in the future. That doesn't point at anyone in particular.

Even though Sauce wasn't a Seer, if he was right about something, he would have had the potential to make a good case against his supects with possibly bad consequences to the Evil team. In this case, we should look at those who were on his list of possible EW picks.

As I noted yesterDay, to me Sauce seemed surprisingly confident about how the EW would act.

Originally Posted by Sauce

Yet it is not village affairs that have guided the Evil Wizard’s hand, I am sure, but cold, hard logic.

There are more in his post #144. He also gave a lot of names as possible EW's choices. Maybe the Wolves were on the list and got scared, or then Sauce was way off and killing him was supposed to throw us completely off track. That would incriminate the people whom I already mentioned or those whom he excused yesterDay. Uh, that's about everyone in this village...

So, I'll move on to giving thouhts on my fellow villagers as soon as I can.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim...and let's be honest: if he was [I

way[/I] off then the wolves would not have picked him...

Exactly! There are many, many villagers to be feared for their skills if innocent. Short list - you, tp, Fea, Caran, Morm, and many others. So I think that he must have been on to something that the foul beasts did not want him to pursue further to tip the balance to choosing him instead of, say (activates spinning ale bottle), the phantom. Remember - SPM did earn two votes yesterday, and if the wolves wanted him dead, they might have tried to build off the suspicion that earned him those votes yesterday and had us do their dirty work while they hid, laughed, and watched.

I don't discount that this death could have been a random pick from the prominent villagers, or that he might have been killed just because he was so greatly to be feared as an innocent. And I know that no secret discussions went on to strategize about his death. But, though I don't know how the mechanics of last night's voting worked, I do know that he managed to catch attention from one of the wolves or he wouldn't have died.

Much has happened since I went away. I've only skimmed it so far, and will have to take a closer look.

Incidentally, I will be keeping the Salty Seal open for business. I think that the SPM would have wanted it that way.

Back later...

[Lalaith]

One thing I wonder about from yesterday.
When the Good Wizard turned a wolf back to the path of righteousness, did the Evil One know which of his brood he had lost? He clearly does now, of course, but did he know at daybreak? If not, he would have had rather a worrying Day....

Morm, my dear old mayor, I'm glad you like my cannon fodder theory, but unless Loki was telling the truth and really was turned, then it doesn't apply in his case.

It is a great pity about the Seer not getting a dream in. I seem to remember some talk of the Nights being prolonged if business had not been concluded therein. I take it that no longer applies? I hope the wolves and EW will also be subjected to strict time constraints, that's all.

Another question I have, what rules does our great Seal-in-the-Sky intend to apply to non-voters and non-posters?
YesterDay's non voters were Sleepy (who has explained why elsewhere) and my wretched niece Oddwen. Where IS that child? Oh well, another day of sipping gin-and-its and sewing ruffles on my party dress, I'm sure she'll turn up when she's hungry.

The wolves - there were only two last night and presumably they either came, via their mod, to some arrangement, or the EW picked one of their two choices, or the EW may even have made a few suggestions to them regarding their kill, if such things are permissible.

The death of Saucie? A simple explanation, quite possibly: too high-profile to turn into a wolf, too dangerous to keep as an enemy.
But there is another explanation and I wonder if I am thinking along the same tracks as phantom. However too many hints will negate the benefits of keeping the theory quiet so I will say nothing until later.

On the subject of phantom, I see no-one suspects him at all. I don't either, actually, but I have looked in a few lorebooks and searched my ancestral memories and found that last time everyone trusted his ancestor, it led to village disaster. (One that profited my ancestress, an equally frivolous but also extremely wicked dancing girl...but let us not dwell on such painful matters.)

Mistress Battledore and the self-confessed creepy shepherdess Fea both think it seemly to hunt out the GW, as he is heading for martyrdom anyway. Now this is frivolity and nonsense beyond even my ken. Do you not think, ladies that we should at least wait until he gives us a few gifteds? Madame Diamond I am already watching, for showing more familiarity with the lyrics of the J Geils Band than any decent person should, something that would in itself be a lynching offence in less tolerant settlements.

[Cailín]

Well, the phantom of course, being my son and all, cannot possibly have anything to do with this evil. Aside from the fact that I personally raised him, I do believe he will (and needs to be) dreamed of and scried as soon as possible. Also, his behaviour yesterDay fits with his innocence. I love him dearly, oh yes, but not as much as he loves himself (who could?). If he was not chosen by either wizard, I am sure he needed to come up with a favourable explanation for that and that is exactly what he did.

Either way - he is all good for now. Even if he is in fact evil.

Another question I have, what rules does our great Seal-in-the-Sky intend to apply to non-voters and non-posters?

I was wondering, too. In a village as this one, no one is immediately going to notice those who post less than normal.

By the way, the Saucepan Man cannot have been way off. I think it is quite possible that he accused the entire village of potential lycanthropy and those he did not directly accuse, he certainly implied. I wonder about this supposed master strategy thing Lal and phantom brought up, though.

[Nogrod]

We surely talk here... (it took me almost an hour to just update myself with everything written after I left)

I'm going to go back and see a couple of things about yesterday too. But before that just a few thoughts about the wizards & the wolves.

The wizards are the clue of this game. Thence lmp must have been pretty thoughtful when picking them. He would not have chosen people who'd be raising suspicions. It would increase the possibility of either one being revealed and the game changing into a normal WW-game just too soon. He would really like to see, how the wizards actually play.

The EW's initial picks as wolves probably follow the same lines of thought as lmp's wizard choice. Three silent, under-radar types would serve the EW best in the beginning: giving them a working-peace to do her/his bidding in the chaotic rushing around the loudmouths of the first couple of days (just look at the voting stats: most votes for Loki, myself, Lommy and even Spm - not the silent ones...). That's why I'm still quite unsure about Loki being the double choice (his newbieness would be the only reason to pick him, I suppose).

But the third one from last night is a different choice. It would be intelligent from the EW to have taken now someone with a higher profile - as we probably should start to look for the more silent ones... But that one should also be one that hasn't roused suspicion - or at least not too much, or too serious.

And why Spm last night? I would go for them just eliminating a good player out from the game. If Spm was up to something real, it might have been too risky to go after him. But then again, if there was something, the wolves might have been afraid that there could be more the next day? Must see to that too.

[Thinlómien]

Many people have despised/disliked/not agreed with Fea's theory about who could be the EW. I agree that using off game reasoning is not maybe the best thing to do (in the viewpoint of the game), but I think that Fea's theory makes sense. Another thing we could use when trying to solve thew personality of the EW is the person in question's personality. I bet I could name at least a few players who lack the ambition and self-assurance to apply a wizarding position.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The wizards are the clue of this game. Thence lmp must have been pretty thoughtful when picking them. He would not have chosen people who'd be raising suspicions. It would increase the possibility of either one being revealed and the game changing into a normal WW-game just too soon. He would really like to see, how the wizards actually play.

In a way, I disagree. I think he would enjoy picking surprising people as wizards. I agree that he must have picked good players, however.

The EW's initial picks as wolves probably follow the same lines of thought as lmp's wizard choice. Three silent, under-radar types would serve the EW best in the beginning: giving them a working-peace to do her/his bidding in the chaotic rushing around the loudmouths of the first couple of days (just look at the voting stats: most votes for Loki, myself, Lommy and even Spm - not the silent ones...).

True. I agree with you. Though not too slip-under-the-radar-people. They really arouse suspicion. Nogrod, you're making a lot more sense today. I hope it is not because Naria, I and some others remarked you acted strangely yesterday and you've decided to be more careful today with hiding your fur or magical powers...

[Sleepy Ranger]

Here I am, finally! Sorry about missing Day 1 but I [unexpectedly] fell ill.
Anyway, a lot seems to have happened so I'm off to see the wiz... I mean read through the thread. See you around folks! Also Cara, take out the trash. Thinlo, brush your teeth. Roa, wheres my dinner?

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

The consensus seems to be that the GW doesn't want to scry people who are likely Wolf kills or people who manage to get themselves lynched. The EW or his picks won't be certain people because they are likely Seer dreams or they, too, could get themselves lynched during Day. If this affects the Seer's dreaming choices, s/he might not dream of those who would be natural options in any other Village thus making them safe picks for the EW. I'm not speculating how the Good team should act, far from it, but it might be a good thing if we villagers wouldn't completely rule out different options.

I'm wary of those who seem to be helpful suggesting what to do, but do not show example or give possible names by themselves. YesterDay it was Lhuna. Today Lommy acts quite similarly. Yes, there are timezone issues. Lommy's post was made in the morning, so she might not have had much time, but apparently she had time enough to make a scheme about how we should act today. Keeping that in mind, I would have liked to hear more, how she, for example, is defining EWish/ Wolvish behaviour.

Originally Posted by Eomer

So, if SPM was onto something (and let's be honest: if he was way off then the wolves would not have picked him) and that's why he lies dead, I would pick a lynching candidate from the following:

Oddwen, Lalaith, Caranlondien, Roa or Gurthang. Two wolves in that lot!

Even though Oddwen was on Sauce's list, he ended up excusing her.

"I am disinclined to vote for Oddwen, as her "no vote" draws attention to her. An unlikely move for a Wolf. That narrows my list down further." ~Sauce #117

Anyway, I rather agree on some of your choices, Eomer.


edit: I see that Lommy has posted again, so I'll take my words back concerning her - for now.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Sleepy Ranger

Thinlo, brush your teeth.

Why? Yellow's always been my favourite colour...

Anyway, nice to see you around, daddy. You have quite a read waiting for you.

I am also worried about people who are generally trusted. Though, I maybe shouldn't say anything, since my lorebooks tell a tale of my ancestress who said the village trusted spawn too much, and that spider lady turned out to be a seer. *sigh* I don't trust anyone in this village.

cross-posted with spawn. the old magic of calling one's name and her appearing clearly works...

[Gurthang]

Well, I've got just a short time. I'm being called to run out the door, so...

First, Eomer, I want to agree with you (and do about Lhuna's vote) but for some reason you sound overly eager to make sure that we think you couldn't possibly be a wolf.

I also realized more than ever that we are just shooting in the dark everyday. But I think that we need to remember that two people are going to be wolves from the very start, which could help us later in the game.

Got to go, I'll be back to vote before Day ends.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by dancing spawn of ungoliant

I'm wary of those who seem to be helpful suggesting what to do, but do not show example or give possible names by themselves. YesterDay it was Lhuna. Today Lommy acts quite similarly. Yes, there are timezone issues. Lommy's post was made in the morning, so she might not have had much time, but apparently she had time enough to make a scheme about how we should act today. Keeping that in mind, I would have liked to hear more, how she, for example, is defining EWish/ Wolvish behaviour.

Yes, in the morning after I had woke up and done my usual morning things I had 1/2 hour time before going to steal candy (=school) so I had just the time to skim through today's posts and write my own.

Err... Spawn I hope you have good intentions but I'm not sure of it. I don't think it'd be very wise from me to publish the signs I'm looking after: that'd only make the wolves avoid falling to those. Besides, I'm sure it would cause discussion on the topic and that would make even more profit to the wolves to hear all villagers' tricks to catch wolves. So, no thanks.

Mrs. Felagund, is there anything you wish to confess?

edit: xed with Gurthang

[JennyHallu]

Hello again...

I may never have much liked my brother-in-law, but I stand with my sister to mourn his passing. Celuien, dear, use a hankie. Naria, since your sister's off gallivanting with that boy, maybe you could...um...clean up the kitchen a bit. Put some of those saucepans away, maybe.

The village seems to have gained some direction today, focussing on who would be a clever pick of the Wizards. I am afraid I would knock Caranlondien off of the likely-wolf list, though. While my lorebooks show her ancestors as wise and learnèd villagers, a wolvish ancestor could only be categorized as somewhat...jumpy. I think the EW would go for someone who has shown finesse with the role of werewolf, since even some of the best villagers can make horrible wolves. He will also go for people with either totally consistent or totally inconsistent behavior: either people who act the same no matter their role, or people who are crazed loose cannons and cannot ever be predicted.

As such, I agree with many of the people on likely good wolf/gifted choices, but with one twist. Most people yesterday seemed to doubt Loki's claim on the assumption that the Wizards would be going for the same people, and Loki appeared on no one's mental list of likely "cursees".

But our Wizards are no doubt intelligent and well-versèd in werewolf lore, and it would surely occur to both of them that the wise among the villagers would have such a hit-list prepared, and that these choices would probably be much the same for either. For that reason, it does not seem at all unlikely that both Wizards might have made a selection meant to sidestep both the predictions of the village and their counterpart. Loki's claim rang true to me just because it seemed so unlikely.

So I would not be surprised to see the Wizardly selections swing towards vocal and controversial players just because we, the village, might assume the Wizards would never choose that person.

And: Lal and a phantom, both of you have shown incredible sense and judgement (especially the incorporeal one), and are therefore in my mind prime lynch candidates. Are your secret theories and assumptions so sensitive that it is worth the chance they are lost to the village?

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by dancing spawn of ungoliant

Even though Oddwen was on Sauce's list, he ended up excusing her.

"I am disinclined to vote for Oddwen, as her "no vote" draws attention to her. An unlikely move for a Wolf. That narrows my list down further." ~Sauce #117

I agree with his assessment. Though if she is a wolf, his excuse of her no vote would have made him a safer target for her. I'll move her to the bottom of the list of candidates who might well be the original two wolves, but will remain wary of her.

I most likely will not vote for Alcarillo. I'm thinking that it would have brought a lot of attention to him to have killed SPM. But again, I'm still wary of a bluff, so while I'll pass for today, he is staying high on my list of those who I'll be keeping a close eye on. He currently ranks just above Oddwen in my mind.

Lommy seems less suspicious today. She's making more sense, and I rather like her flowchart.

And I still trust my father Morm. Likewise about the phantom, spawn, and Eomer. Nogrod speaks sensibly, so I would, again, be disinclined to vote for him.

Nilp is more difficult to get a handle on, due both to personality and time-zone disease, but because he strikes me as a very poor EW pick and because nothing is really striking me as furry, I don't think think he's cursed.

Sleepy, Valier, Roa and Kitanna I can't tell much about yet because they fall into the quiet category.

The only thing I have against Lhuna is her call for the GW to declare from yesterday. That issue has been discussed by me and by others, so I won't go into the reasons I think that's a bad idea right now. And again, she seems to be a riskier EW pick, so she doesn't take a prominent place on my list of suspects. I think she does, however, bear some observation. Similar reasoning applies to Fea.

The Lady Battledore doesn't seem wolvish. Too likely to get herself lynched the way she goes around swatting everyone with her handywork.

Which leaves me with a large contingent of intermediately chatty villagers whom I just don't know about one way or the other (read - everyone whose name isn't mentioned above or on SPM's list, which I'll get to in a minute).

So back to Oddwen, Lalaith, Caranlondien, Roa and Gurthang.

Oddwen I've already discussed. Gurthang has been relatively quiet, which makes me uneasy, but what he has said doesn't strike me as wolvish. Besides, he agrees with the phantom about the wizards, which seems to be a good thing. Caran has been on the right side of the GW revealing debate () and generally making sense. While she could be a wolf using sensible behavior as cover, I'm inclined to trust her for now. Roa defended Loki yesterday, and turned out to be right. She suspected those who were eager to see him gone and voted for Nogrod on that basis. My lorebooks say that her ancestors have been sensible and intelligent, and very effective at hiding as wolves until cornering made them defensive. I can't tell, however, if she suspicious or not just now. As for Lalaith, she had a very interesting interpretation in post #176 about the EW making cannon fodder wolves for the purpose of revealing them to earn village trust, then voted for Loki. It's an interesting theory, but not one I'm sure gets us anywhere. In fact, I think it makes it harder to find people that we do trust since it casts suspicion on anyone who helps uncover the wolves.

Hmm. And that didn't get me very far in my reasoning, did it? If the EW did pick from among those 5, it was a wise choice, because they are quite effective at deflecting suspicion.

I now have both good news and bad news. The good news is that the morning Cupper's convention was canceled, which allowed me to remain with my excellent and admirable fellow villagers these last few hours. The bad news is that afternoon sessions are still scheduled, and I don't know how far into the evening they are going to last, so my vote will need to come soon lest I risk returning the the village too late.

Expect the vote in the next couple of hours.

[Nogrod]

=Jenny
I think the EW would go for someone who has shown finesse with the role of werewolf, since even some of the best villagers can make horrible wolves.

This is a case in point, as we still have to remember the wolves being hand-picked. My deficient lorebook comes up with two over all the others (playing well and been wolves for many times), the ancestors of Roa and Jenny. You others who have played more should see your books for others this way highly qualified. Even though, it can be maintained, that also this "fame" might just be a reason for the wizard not to pick these people up in the first place.

He will also go for people with either totally consistent or totally inconsistent behavior: either people who act the same no matter their role, or people who are crazed loose cannons and cannot ever be predicted.

This is very helpful indeed. So: about anyone...

So I would not be surprised to see the Wizardly selections swing towards vocal and controversial players just because we, the village, might assume the Wizards would never choose that person.

I still think, that the first picks would be more likely somewhat on the under-radar -side, but the third one could already be different.


Some preliminary thoughts after running through yesterday's posting.

Nicely unseen / not suspicious enough to come lynched during the first days ie. the possible "original duo":
Caran, Valier, Kitanna, Eonwe, Lalaith

Good candidates for EW to pick as the third one (seem to have been mainly trusted by all on DAY1):
Eomer, Phantom, Fea, Spawn, Firefoot

I know, that this kind of lists are - as yet - quite random, but there's the direction I'm looking at right now: reasonable picks having a bit different basis before DAY1 and DAY2.

[Roa_Aoife]

OOC Getting this post in- Sorry I'm late but last night involved a rather lengthy discussion with my parents and my new fiancé (they just found out.) So, this is quick, and I haven't read all the way through, but I'll be back with more this time, I promise! OOC

I don't know why you believe Loki and I are friends in RL, Diamond, but as for my reasons for believing him innocent, I laid those out already. However, for the sake of expediency- Loki's claim was believable

a. Because no one contradicted him. In the case of a villager turned wolf turn villager, there would really be nothing to fear from coming forward, so the fact that Loki was the only one who made the claim added to his believability.

b. His timing. Why come forward right away with this information unless it is true? A wolf certainly would not want to attract attention like that. He had no reason to do so unless it was the truth and he wanted the village to know immediately.

c. Lying wouldn't be that plausible. It would be easy for someone to contradict him. As I said yesterday, that move is far too bold for even me.

d. If he had been believed rather than immediately attacked for his claim *coughcoughNogrodcoughcough*, it wouldn't have caused confusion but clarity- we would have a known innocent and so could look elsewhere for lynching.

Given all of this, I would say it was Nogrod who started the confusion, not Loki.

Also, since a question of my connection to Loki arises, if I were a wizard and Loki was my friend, do you really think that I would pick him on that alone? Give me some credit- I'm a little more subtle than that. But as for the nature of our relationship, Loki is not my friend in RL. Just so ya'll know.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'm sad that Loki had to go. I for myself tried to get him lynched yesterday, as I was myself being bandwaggoned and he was the second one in the line.

This statement has me wondering- you admit to bandwagoning, but you give an odd reason for it. You were certainly throwing suspicion on Loki from your first post. And your reasons were terrible. I'd have to say that you were the driving force behind Loki's lynching, not after you were on the kill list, but from the very beginning.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Concerning the EW. S/he would do well to enlist people who are not the primary targets / most vocal ones (as they are in most cases the first to be lynched.

Nice blanket statement- certainly throws suspicion off you almost immediately.

I'll have a more in-depth analysis later.

Originally Posted by Morm

Second, I cannot for the life of me understand why you killed of Loki. He screamed innocence to me and I do believe he was the double pick of the night. I do not know this for certain but his claims rang true in my ears. I actually didn't find him offensive or rude and think that many of you who went after him should feel slightly ashamed at yourselfs for ganging up on him. I haven't decided yet if I believe the EW is in the group of votes for him or not. Lalaith's 'cannon fodder' idea makes great sense and that is why I consider that to be a possibility.

Major dido to Morm.

[Celuien]

Points appreciated, Roa.

I'm swayed enough by what you've written to remove you from my suspicion for today. And to want to keep a closer watch on Nogrod tomorrow.

The time has come for a vote.

++ LALAITH

The theory in 176 doesn't sit right with me, as I've already explained. And the others on the list have behaved compellingly innocent enough for me to be less willing to vote for them.

Off to the convention.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Lommy, making polls about what other people find suspicious makes me uneasy, too, for the reasons you mentioned (more to be found in various lorebooks). What I was expecting from you was your own thoughts of Villagers. The scheme seems helpful, but have you tried it yourself? If yes, did you manage to divide people to those different groups that you spoke of? I think that kind of discussion and analysing the villagers in general would be most useful in catching the baddies.


Something in Lalaith is making me uneasy. I've tried analysing her posts, but I guess it's just the general impression than anything she'd have said directly that has caught my attention. Still, I'll take a moment to comment her posts.

#176 - the cannon fodder theory. The villager who was chosen by both Wizards is someone who'd make a good Seer.

I don't know if there is a villager who would at the same time be a good cannon fodder and Seer. The theory of making an expendable Wolf is interesting and something that the EW might try at some point, but considering that his/her job is to make as many wolves as s/he can, I don't think that sacrificing a wolf would be very profitable now that it's easy to hide among the masses.

#178 - asks when the sun will go down.

#180 - still confusion about the deadline, votes for Loki because he filled the criteria of her cannon fodder theory.

She tied Loki with Nogrod giving him a fifth vote.

#246 - several questions about rules.

Hmm, your ancestor suspected mine once for asking questions... should I suspect you?

- Says Sauce's death can be simply explained although then she wonders if she and phantom are thinking along the same lines. She will keep her thoughts to herself, though. Says that no one is suspecting phantom, and she doesn't either although then she starts browsing old lorebooks.

Are you saying that there might reason to suspect phantom after all? As to the lorebooks, I kind of warned the Village about same thing yesterDay, but whatever.

- Doesn't agree with Di and Fea, and thinks that revealing the GW is a silly plan. Suspects Diamond for bad taste in music?

Would it be possible for you to give the quotes from Di and Fea? I'd appreciate that. Anyway, phantom has been pretty vocal about the benefits of the GW revealing themselves soon, so is there some reason why you chose to pick those two ladies?

"The wolves - there were only two last night and presumably they either came, via their mod, to some arrangement, or the EW picked one of their two choices, or the EW may even have made a few suggestions to them regarding their kill, if such things are permissible." ~Lalaith

According to the rules:

Order of Night Activities:
1. Evil wizard picks whom to curse.
...
7. Werewolves pick whom to kill.

I understand it that way that there were three Wolves making the decision of the kill.


I need a break. I'll be back later.

edit: some cross-posting.

[Nogrod]

Well. I know this might look bad to some eyes, but as I'm going to be off for several hours (and remember my last game just too well when Spm and Kath arranged my death and their win while I was away), I think I have to make a few corrections on some stuff flying in the air.

Please Roa. If you just check the DAY1 posts from the beginning, you should see, that what was going on, was mainly typical DAY1 bantering - with the slight twist of Loki being somewhat overtly defencive. So not driving lynch from the first moments. Roa: you ask others to give you credit of not being a fool. Please give me that credit too...

Some people have voiced their concern of me changing my style between DAY1 & 2. Surely. That's what I always do. I need to get some suspicion on me on DAY1 to live over the nights. Simple as that. And I've played that way from my second game onwards.

[Oddwen]

*walks in, a purloined chicken under each arm*

I am in agony. So much to read through, and so little time for me to decide what to do!

Originally Posted by Cailin

She's odd.

Never heard *that* before.

Gah! So much talk, and yet so little to glean!

Just hit me - the Wolves don't know who each other are, this means they aren't certain who's innocent either. I personally would like to see the wizards gone, only because it would be less confusing for me. (A selfish wish indeed, I fear).

I'm going to go brush my teeth, and try to come up with a vote. It'll be the only time I can, because those chickens won't catch themselves.

[Lalaith]

don't know if there is a villager who would at the same time be a good cannon fodder and Seer

Spawn, you misunderstood me. Three wolves were picked by the EW. One would be, in my theory, "cannon fodder". This would NOT be the same wolf that was changed back.

I'll be back to post more, including the quotes Spawn requested, in a moment when I've had a bit more time.

[Oddwen]

I've decided, I suppose.

++LALAITH

Because she never really loved me! And for a few things that Spawn pointed out, and a few little hunches of my own.

Must leave now, see you toMorrow

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by Oddwen

Never heard *that* before.

Always happy to state the obvious.

What you say is actually very much to the point. All wolves and the wizard are working individually. The wolves will as likely accuse each other as anyone else. If I were a wolf now, I'd probably play no differently than I do now, for why would I?

Therefore, the only likely way to find out the wolves is to ask yourself the question: if I were the EW, who would I have chosen to be my minions?

If we assume Loki was indeed speaking the truth -and I'm starting to think he did- who would you team up with him? Surely not another controversional person likely to be a loudmouth. Loki and Nogrod or Roa -for example- seems like a destructive choice.

Concerning Lalaith and her canon fodder theory... I don't find it as logical as some. The Evil Wizard will -I think- be more concerned with creating as many decent wolves as fast as possible than prolonging his own life using eccentric tactics. The more days pass, the more likely it is he will be scried and challenged.

(Oh, and, if the evil wizard is Fea, these would have been her wolves: Loki, Lalaith and Lhunardawen. I shall support this theory for now, as it seems to be no less rational or irrational than anything we come up with.)

[JennyHallu]

Originally Posted by Noggie

Quote:
He will also go for people with either totally consistent or totally inconsistent behavior: either people who act the same no matter their role, or people who are crazed loose cannons and cannot ever be predicted.
This is very helpful indeed. So: about anyone...

I meant this to exclude anyone who behaves differently when a wolf or gifted than otherwise. I suppose I would mean Roa would be a bad choice, because when innocent she is vocal and controversial, and when wolvish or gifted, she is much more careful. OOC- Congratulations on your engagement, by the way, Roa...

[the phantom]

*Phantom pops into the village tavern*

"I'll be able to speak in about three hours. Just letting everyone know so you didn't wonder where I was."

*Phantom pops back out of the village tavern*

"Probably off with Zali," observed several villagers.

[Thinlómien]

The problem is that I don't feel anyone particularly suspicious. The people I suspected yesterday are acting more reasonably today (Nogrod, Alcarillo).

I have no real suspects, but I feel the following people should be watched:
Nogrod - very strange yesterday, I don't feel his reasonability toDay wholly excuses him
Celuien - makes sense, I agree, but I think she was rather unfair with the analysis on me yesterday. (Oh well, I'm not sure if I feel more insulted than suspicious... ) But my lorebooks tell of wolves trying to make the village see through lenses set by them.
Lalaith - as pointed out, her theory is rather odd. I don't see how it could succeed nor why the EW would like to waste one wolf on it.
Kitanna, Firefoot, Kath, Zali - all of them contributed to the game, but they all masterfully avoided attention. I fear they will slip under the radar.
the phantom - the village trusts him too much.
Eomer - his sudden vote for Nogrod was pretty strange yesterday
Jenny, Gurth - they leave me with absolotely no opinion, though they participate. That makes me feel that I should watch them in order to get a picture of them.
Alcarillo, Oddwen - their behaviour disturbed me yesterday. I need more time to get an image of them.
Sleepy - no record from yesterday (with understandable reasons).

As my list seems to include nearly all of the villagers I think I should comment on the rest as well:
Diamond - babbling all the time (no insult intended). (Maybe she's substituting Roa... ) Feels rather innocent.
Cara - she's smart, I don't deny it. Nothing in her has caught my suspicion.
spawn, Cailín, Roa - make good points and sense.
Lhuna, Fea, morm - nothing particularily suspicious here either.
Glirdy - sympathic, my dear brother. Innocent most probably.
Valier, Eonwe, Nilp - completely their normal style. Don't raise any suspicions in me.
Naria - was chatty early yesterday but started to make sense later. Feels innocent.

If I forgot somebody, please let me know.

edit: xed with the lot posting after Oddwen's previous post (not the newest)

[Lalaith]

It's an interesting theory, but not one I'm sure gets us anywhere. In fact, I think it makes it harder to find people that we do trust since it casts suspicion on anyone who helps uncover the wolves.

Celuien, isn't this a case of "shoot the messenger"? Yes it will be harder to find people to trust but that is not my fault - it's what the new rules involve, I'm afraid. I've thought a lot about the possibilities in this game and I've come to the conclusion that there are even more chances than usual for the evil side to subvert logic. So while I usually like to combine deduction and instinct, I've realised that particularly in the early stages of this game, I'm going to have to rely more on instinct than I usually do, and less on logic.
The only thing in our favour is that the wolves don't know who to trust either.

Oh and here's that quote you wanted, Spawn, it's from Diamond's post 210:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fea
I also agree with whomever it was that mentioned searching out the wizards. It gives us a legitimate project for day one. It will put them off guard. Sure, it would mean sacrificing the good wizard in all probability, but since the good wizard lives to die in such a way, I won't feel too badly about it. Consider: who would expect that an entire village would gang up on their wizards? Surely we would want to keep our good wizard around. Blah blah pros and cons blah blah. With the pressure of an entire village actively seeking, the evil wizard will have to be REALLY good to avoid screwing up.


Not much more to say except that I agree with this and am of basically the same mind. The GW lives to be martyred in order to cease the creation of Wolves. Nuff said.

As for the music thing, I was just having a bit of fun. I AM meant to be frivolous, you know...

[mormegil]

I find it odd also that Lalaith is garnering so much suspicion. All she has said and done seems rather logical and helpful. I think her 'Cannon Fodder' theory on Day 1 was to help explain a way in which Loki would be innocent.

Does anybody else find it problematic that the majority of us are saying things like..."If I were the EW I would select ...." We are telling the EW who we think he/she would pick thus giving them the opportunity to select others whom we do not think they would choose. The same goes for selecting the EW, of course LMP wouldn't select the phantom or Eomer...or would he knowing that we would think he wouldn't. See what I mean about over thinking this?

I would really like to analyze Diamond more as well as Thinlomien, however they are the top posters and as a mayor it is my job to fill vacant slots therefore I have interviews to do all day long (RL) and will be able to poke in and out but not read past post overly but some people are sticking out to me.

Alcarillo: was extremely defensive without much suspicion cast on him. It seems as if he almost didn't vote to kill SpM last night but was over ruled by his comrades and now is anxious to exonerate himself first thing.

Diamond: with all the banter it's hard to find what she is saying. Her post coming out and addressing everything I said today I found interesting and attention grabbing.

Celuien: Sorry daughter but WW don't respect familial ties, and what better shield to hide behind than family?

Glirdan: Just isn't sitting right

Nogrod: Different behavior, a bit less rash and more cautious.

Thinlo: Wants to be very vocal and helpful but hasn't really given much by actual suspicion. She gives a lot of wide sweeping statments that cover a lot of people. Behavior that I would find consistent with lycanthropy.

There are others that I am watching and others I am currently trusting, but that is another problem. If we all trust the phantom, which I do, it would be easy to turn him into a wolf and we would all continue that trust for a while. I believe the seer wouldn't dream of him early, I wouldn't because it would be a waste to dream of him so early.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by mormegil

I find it odd also that Lalaith is garnering so much suspicion. All she has said and done seems rather logical and helpful. I think her 'Cannon Fodder' theory on Day 1 was to help explain a way in which Loki would be innocent.

I don't find it odd that she's suspected, but I find it odd that she's bandwagoned. Am I not correct if I say anyone else hasn't been voted yet?

Thinlo: Wants to be very vocal ...

Morm, you are misdiagnosing me. I don't want to be vocal; I just am and can't do anything about it.

edit: marked the quote properly

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Do two votes make a bandwagon? I see your point, though. Quite a few people has voiced suspicion of her, so for early voters Lalaith might be the "safe vote" of the Day. I still find Lalaith suspicious and she might get my vote toDay, but I'd like to hear other people's theories of other villagers, too.

Oddwen was the one to give the second vote for Lalaith because some hunches she had and because of relationship issues. She also said that she's voting for Lalaith because of something I said. I would have appreciated if Oddwen could have given a reason to her vote, but to me it looks that she decided to go with some ready theory without giving her own thoughts at all. I think I'll add Oddwen to my suspicion list.

edit: Forgot this: Valier got a vote from Nilp, so Lalaith isn't the only one who has votes.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by dancing spawn of ungoliant

Oddwen was the one to give the second vote for Lalaith because some hunches she had and because of relationship issues. She also said that she's voting for Lalaith because of something I said. I would have appreciated if Oddwen could have given a reason to her vote, but to me it looks that she decided to go with some ready theory without giving her own thoughts at all. I think I'll add Oddwen to my suspicion list.

I agree her vote was too random. I didn't like it at all that she just popped in, said hello, had a pause, voted and left. Though I wonder if a wolf'd be that careless. Knowing she's an experienced player I still include the possibility that she's double-bluffing.

[Roa_Aoife]

Since Nogrod told me to go back and look at his posts, I did

Nogrod analysis

Day 1
1st post - Nonsense, insinuates Loki is lying (2nd post of the day)
2nd - More suspicion of Loki, says his very claim is suspicious, says Loki is overly defensive and acting strangely, "I hope you [Loki] rot in hell pretty soon," doesn't think a wizard would pick Loki
3rd - Says "If SPM had taken on a new identity, it would be you…"
4th - Agrees with phantom, says that the wizards wouldn't pick high profile players
5th - complaint about times
6th - Accuses Thin of being overheated and wolfish
7th - Looks at people who haven't really spoken, vote update, says Nilp's vote for him had no grounds
8th - Updates voting list, shows himself in the lead, "Great!"
9th - Says Lommy seems quite happy to be rid of him
10th - says Celuien's version of the vote may be correct
11th - Another vote update
12th - Says we should look closely at Loki over the following days, seems quite certain that Loki was picked by the EW, votes Loki
13th - response to Loki, says his being pressed for time seems convenient
14th - Looks specifically at the people who have voted for him
15th - Another vote update
16th - Another vote update

Day 2
1st - Agrees with Celuien, can't trust anyone, agrees with Diamond, "sad" Loki had to go so soon, admits to bandwagoning to save himself, "They [his reasons for voting Loki] were believable, but wrong" States again that the EW should pick people who are not vocal, but are the lay low kind, points out that we can't track mutual posting.
2nd - Says he'll go back and look at Day 1, thinks that wizards are the clue of the game, again says that the wizards would choose under the radar types, is still unsure about Loki being the double-choice, thinks that last Night's choice would be a higher profile player, thinks that SPM was eliminated just because he's a good player
3rd- agrees with Jenny that the EW may pick a player known to have finesse at werewolf, i.e. Roa and Jenny, still thinks that the first picks would be under the radar types, comes up with lists of likely choices
4th - Encourages Roa to read up on his posts (which I did), claims tiff with Loki was typical Day 1 bantering, admits to changing his style

Analysis to follow

[Kath]

Too much discussion of bluffs here I feel, especially this early in the game. There are just too many people to consider the possibility of trickery by each of them. In fact, there is too much discussion full stop. 7 pages people! It's Day 2!

Ahem, Lalaith? Haven't seen anything that would make me feel suspicious of her, though admittedly I've only done rather a rushed reading so far.

SPM's death wasn't really that odd. Every player here knows he's a formidable opponent. What we must also remember is that even if there was dissention in the ranks, two of the wolves had to vote SPM in order to kill him not one. (This is if I've got the rules right!) So we know that, eventually, two people wanted him dead. This suggests to me that the wolves are people who think him too dangerous to be left alive, and have either had bad experiences with him or just generally don't want to face him.

This leads me to suspect:
Nogrod - the poor thing's ancestors have certainly had bad experiences with SPM, and he himself has mentioned that past. Perhaps that should exonerate him as he brought it up, but I think not.

Aside from that the other person I have some queries over is Oddwen. It has been a very long time since I've played with her and this may well be her usual style of playing, but I don't think so. I'd like to see a lot more reasoning from her. I will probably not vote for her toDay as I would like to see if she plays a bit more substantially tomorrow, but if she doesn't then she is a top suspect.

Oh, speaking of which, Lommy and her chart. Well it's a nice idea, but you haven't taken circumstances into account. Someone may have a suspect who they believe to be the EW, but if there are two bandwaggons growing and one is against them, they are more likely to join the bandwaggon against the other person than vote for their suspect. Some flaws in there, but generally sound. I'm a lot less supicious of her than I was yesterDay. She's been analysing and making some good contributions.

And that's it for now I'm afraid. Except, where's Lhuna? Doesn't she usually appear around the same time as Nilp?

[Diamond18]

Oy vey. Took me 50 minutes to catch up. But I'm not complaining. Really.

I'm going to have to vote, and I'm at a loss. So many darn suspects.

Oh well, as I'm pondering that I'll amuse myself with the usual behavior that nobody really likes:

Diamond, you weren't on my list of wolves because I can see you getting lynched very early. Sorry, but that's the truth.

No worries. I thought that's what it was, but people sometimes surprise me, so I didn't want to assume. Oh and yes, I am loud and troublesome. This is what got Loki killed. So if it gets me killed I can't really complain, can I?

Consulting my lorebooks, this is what they tell me:

Originally Posted by Lorebooks

Honestly, Diamond, people are going to want to lynch you no matter what. It's a thing. Don't question it -- some people are just lynch materil no matter what they do, and you're it. If you're quiet, they'll vote for you. If you banter, they'll vote for you. If you analyze and theorize, they'll vote for you. So do whatever you feel like whenever you feel like doing it. After all, the minute people stop suspecting you, you're dog food.

Thank you, lorebooks, you speak truths. Sorry about the fire.

Roa: I'm satisfied with your answers to my suspicions. (Yes, I had suspicions, who would have thought amongst all that banter that I actually said something Roa found worth responding to!) Anyway, my theory about you and Loki was based mostly on stuff that happend in those halcyon days prior to dear Elempi's death, when he got into that fight with tp. I didn't mean to insult you in implying you as a Wizard would pick a Wolf from your friends. I won't tell you that I wouldn't do such a thing. A bit of straying from cold hard logic can always be good for throwing the logic-sniffers off the trail.

All that said, I don't think Gurthang cared to deny anything when I mentioned his name as my other consideration. Kind of interesting. I don't think he's a Wizard, because.... I just don't. See Fea's RL reasoning. So I pretty much think, now, that whoever was the friend certainly isn't going to step forward after I made it sound all suspicious. No matter if I was on to something or totally off base. Because who wants to say, "Yes, Diamond, I am that suspicious person you speak of."

Lommy: Babbling, eh? I think this is a compliment coming fom you. But no worries, I have a history of such labeling, I've learned to embrace it.


Drrrrrrrrrrr. Blah. It's time to vote, and I still haven't even fully woken up yet. Curses.


+ + NOGROD


*gasp*

I'm sorry, hubby. There are lots of people now pinging my suspicions, but frankly, you did worry me yesterDay. I let it slide because, well, you're my hubby and I couldn't very well off you before Loki. But even though his reactions were over defensive, that whole "banter" thing you had going on seemed... off. You don't usually banter and accuse randomly like that. And a faux paus though it was, posting fifteen minutes early was no indication of wolfishness. From anyone else, such accusations I might not think twice about. But it's you, and you feel different.

There's always the "Why would a wolf/wizard draw such attention to himself?" thing. But Noggie should know more than anyone that him being quiet is suspicious. So this feels like overcompensation. Trying a little too hard to maintain the high profile, without the usual genuine content

I'm sorry if you're innocent. I'll never be able to face my daughters again if you're lynched and innocent. But then, if you're a wolf (which is seemingly quite likely) what else can a mother do besides protect her young, even from their father.....?

[Roa_Aoife]

Nogrod claimed that his tiff with Loki was just day one banter, but his very first post of the day, while it had the dressings of nonsense, was actually an accusation. Naturally, a wolf learning the identity of a former teammate and an obvious innocent would act as quickly as possible to throw doubt on him, which is exactly what Nogrod did. Nogrod started off the day by trying to muddy up the waters rather than trying to clear him. If he doubted Loki so much, why did he never ask for the "true" convert to come forward? I think it's because Nogrod really believed Loki, and thus wanted him dead.
I also found several contradictions. In his effort to make Loki doubtful, Nogrod said that he didn't believe Loki would be a good choice; however, later on he admits that high-profile players (the opposite of Loki) would likely be avoided by the wizards. The there was this:

I hope you [Loki] rot in hell pretty soon

I'm sad that Loki had to go.

Then, Nogrod makes a point of suspecting the people who voted for him- one very wolfish tactic, to be sure. He also seems quite eager to have us believe that the wizards wouldn't pick someone who was loud, but would rather pick under the radar type players. He expresses this point three times in 4 posts. It seems quite clearly an attempt to throw suspicion away from him. I'd also like to point out that Nogrod was never mentioned on SPM's list of possible wolf candidates, making SPM the safest kill for him of the night.

Also, Day 1 saw very little of Nogrod's usual theorizing and discussion, and while he had quite a few posts, they were of little substance. According to my lorebook, that's something that various Nogrod's of the past have frowned upon as suspicious. And really, while vote updates are a common thing from the Nogrods of the past, that many of them in succession with nothing else is highly unlike the Nogrods of the past.

[Caranlondien]

Whew, finally caught up.

First, I now believe Loki's story. Despite the sarcastic personality, Loki was proven innocent at the end, and I see no reason for lies. No one else has come forward as the true former wolf.

ToDay I am beginning to suspect my little sister Lommy. I agree with Mormegil's thoughts:

Thinlo: Wants to be very vocal and helpful but hasn't really given much by actual suspicion. She gives a lot of wide sweeping statments that cover a lot of people. Behavior that I would find consistent with lycanthropy.

However, I tend to suspect Nogrod even more than Lommy. He's tried to explain his suspicious behavior yesterday as done in order to survive Day 1. But that sounds like a wolvish cover-up to me. His change in behavior toDay also looks wolvish. Nogrod is my top suspect right now.

I'm unsure about Lalaith, and I guess I ought to go back over her posts (So much talking... ) But before she became a topic of discussion, I hadn't found her particularly suspicious-looking.

Finally, I don't personally find Oddwen that odd (a misnomer!). That is, I don't think her behavior would be that likely from a wolf. She gave little reasoning for her early vote, and I think if she were a wolf, she'd know better than to do that.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Roa and Diamond

[Lalaith]

Roa, Cara: perhaps the reason the changed wolf didn't come forward is that s/he didn't want to die. Because as a known innocent, s/he would have been a prime candidate for eating in the night.
And no, it's not me.

Which brings me to my Saucie theory, which I wanted to wait on a while. It's more unlikely than the cannon-fodder one so I will stress it's only a theory - but maybe he was the changed wolf. And that's why he was killed. Of course, it would depend on how much the EW is allowed to guide his wolves.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Roa, you speak much sense to me regarding Nogrod. And, because the wolves do not know each other and wouldn't make such damning accusations (probably) against a genuinely suspicious character, I think it speaks in your favour.

I think I will be voting for him again. Oh, and Lommy, my vote from nowhere? Um...yeah, it was pretty much a random Day One vote. I could have voted for pretty much anyone. It wasn't as if I was railing against Fea and then changed my vote to Nogrod out of nowhere!

It kinda goes against my earlier theory of SPM being correct, but....whatever.

F....f....fe.... ahem. It's you, right? Just a guess.