Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by me

I won't go into detail now, but there are certain things that will likely define the way the GW and EW post during the day, and we can use those behaviors as a guideline, making it more likely we will lynch the EW than the GW.

Originally Posted by Diamond

I've been giving it some thought and haven't really come up with any good ideas about what sorts of posting may indicate Wizadry.

Oh, I bet you probably have a good idea, it's just that you know you could be wrong because of the bluff factor.

To make a long explanation short (and more simple than it really is), to figure the wizards out, all you have to do is think about what the two wizards fear.

[Naria]

To make a long explanation short (and more simple than it really is), to figure the wizards out, all you have to do is think about what the two wizards fear

.

Okay, I'll take a stab at this one Phantom. Would it be eachother?

[Diamond18]

Okay, I'll take a stab at this one Phantom. Would it be eachother?

I think Naria gets the toaster oven (eek, OOC... um, backtracking, rethinking) Naria gets the iron cooking rack.

I was going to say "Spiders?" Also possibly, rats, mice, snakes, leeches, potato bugs, or butterflies. But then, I should have been in bed half an hour ago and my wee little noggin is shot.

[Oddwen]

Ewwwwwww, gross! Poor man! I'll have to keep my chickens locked up good an' safe tonight!

I think mr. the phantom's plan is a good one - though how to go about finding a wizard without using magic is a tough cookie...

That Oddwen has always been a rather strange child as well; can't say I'd quite trust her, nor her aunt, letting her carry on with those antics of hers.

Let her try an' stop me! :P

[the phantom]

(because it's annoying to type his/her him/herself and such all the time, I'll just refer to roles like EW and GW with masculine pronouns- don't read into it)

Originally Posted by me

To make a long explanation short (and more simple than it really is), to figure the wizards out, all you have to do is think about what the two wizards fear.

Originally Posted by Naria

Okay, I'll take a stab at this one Phantom. Would it be eachother?

Sort of, in the sense that a wizard challenge is the only thing that can kill them, but why should they fear death? They have to die. That's the way this works. So they don't fear death so much as the balance of the village at the time of their death.

The Evil Wizard wants to make lots of wolves. The Good Wizard wants to make lots of gifteds, but can only make a maximum of three. After Night 3, the EW adds to his den every night, but the GW does not. That means that the GW wants the wizard challenge to happen early in the game, therefore he does not fear the mass revelation of his identity. For all he cares, the EW can challenge him now.

And so, since he cannot be lynched, cannot be killed by wolves, and cannot be cursed by the EW, the Good Wizard fears NOTHING!

(other than it taking a long time to find the EW)

The Evil Wizard, on the other hand, does not want to be discovered any time remotely soon. Therefore he fears being lynched, fears being scried, fears being dreamed about by the Seer, and fears choosing the same villager at night as the GW. The Evil Wizard fears EVERYTHING!

[Naria]

I think Naria gets the toaster oven (eek, OOC... um, backtracking, rethinking) Naria gets the iron cooking rack.

Ha ha, it is too laugh!! However, it was a good burn Daffy

[Naria]

ThanksPhantom that paints a much clearer picture for me concerning the EW and the GW.

See Daffy, that's all you had to do ....I have no use for an Iron cooking rack, my mother does all of the cookery anyway

[Naria]

*Tumble weed rolls through the center of town*

Sorry for the triple post, but it seems that I am the only one around right now and as I don't feel like talking to myself at the moment....I will sign off and go to bed.

I will be back in about ten hours or so from now.

[the phantom]

Like Naria, I also must take a break. There are a few things that Alca and Cailin want me to take care of at home, and I mustn't disappoint my Mom and Dad.

Plus, I promised Zali I'd cook her dinner tonight, so I've got those preparations to make as well. And don't worry, Diamond, I'll have your little angel back well before nightfall, so there's no need to brandish that fearsome looking battledore.

[Diamond18]

Yes... well, all that about the EW having more to fear than the GW and wanting to stay hidden as long as possible has been discussed as we've been, er, heeding the Watchers prophecy and preparing for the day when the Shadow arrived. The thing that holds me up is wondering how exactly this fear will be apparent in the the EW's posts. Which brings me back around to expecting that the EW will be relatively quiet, banking on slipping just under our watchfulness. Being too quiet is suspicious in and of itself, so we'll be looking for someone riding the middle ground. Problem is, in a village this size, the middle ground will be a vast field full of gopher holes. Nasty little buggers, those. You've got to sneak up from behind and smack them over the heads or... er... I digress.

The only thing my ruminations lead me to is thinking that the EW won't be among the loud players. But then, uh oh, I realize that maybe that's just the sort of logic EW is banking on and he might be trying The Purloined Letter technique instead: hiding in plain sight. Which leaves me with -- the EW could be loud or moderately quiet, ergo, the candidates will consist of a good two thirds of the village.

Finally, I've consulted my Werewolf lorebooks, and they say:

Originally Posted by Werewolf Lorebooks

When a red fox and a brown cow frolic in the ocean, you will know who the Wizards are.

Bloody lot of help the lorebooks turned out to be. *chucks lorebooks into the fire*

[Cailín]

My my. That is quite tragic. Elempi dead? He was the only one in this village who made me feel young still, yes indeed he was, and such a kind man too. But all must die, eventually, I suppose, and with my notoriously bad fortune, I would not be surprised if I were next. Yes, yes. Oh, the sadness of it all.

I see one of my most beloved sons has already been trying to take charge of events. Yes, all as expected. Well, that is very well, but let us attempt not to take him so seriously. Extended adventuring has done funny things to his head, I sometimes fear. Though, mind you, Alcarillo and I have raised him very well indeed and there is –I assure you- not a trace of wickedness to be found in the brave lad.

As to what he keeps hidden beneath his cloak, perhaps we should ask Zali about that.

And, considering the charges laid against my other son, I must ask you all to back off. I shall be the one to decide if and when he needs a good lynching. Yes, indeed. Aside from tormenting his poor mother, he has done little wrong in his life. I think. I must confess, it’s hard to keep track of them both sometimes.

It seems to me, truly, that what we as a village should do is trying to aid the Good Wizard in finding the Evil Wizard as soon as possible. Amidst these masses of more or less suspicious people, it would be nearly impossible to find the two fanged ones anyway. Also, those who are guilty today, could be pure as the snow tomorrow. There are only two consistent men or women here… and those are the ones we should watch. I agree with the phantom here: the advantage of the Good Wizard is plainly that he does not fear death. Whether we shall see evidence of this in posting, I cannot tell.

There are more pressing matters to deal with, however. Fea, dear, are you sure you do not wish to remarry? I found such a great match for you. Trust me.

[Gurthang]

That's interesting stuff, phantom. I agree. But with all your knowledge of how wizards think and such, maybe you are one...

So that still leaves us with... not much at all. Maybe a few unlikely plans... some probable wizard thoughts... some baseless accusations. From what I've read in the lorebooks, the ones I could save from the fire anyway *glares at Diamond*, I think that's what usually happens the Day after the first person is killed by wolves. But I'd still feel better if we had a plan.

I think the phantom's onto something, but what can we do with it? It's like Diamond said: the EW will likely be quiet, but of course he knows we'll think that so he'll purposely be loud. And that leads us to double, triple and even more unrealistic levels of bluffing.

I guess we'll have to hope for the best of luck. But now I also must go take a nap, and shortly after that, I'll have to go catch up on all my stable work that I'm getting behind in. *sigh*

[Lhunardawen]

Hmm...this is too much to think about...

I haven't seen this covered in the rules (or I must be really blind)...but are the Wizards allowed to reveal themselves? Outright? To the village?

If not, well, then, we'll really have to come up with a way to expose the Evil Wizard for who he is.

If they are, I wonder if it would be best for the Good Wizard to reveal himself now. Surely the EW would think twice before challenging him to a battle, since, as the phantom said, he would want a lot of werewolves on his side. The werewolves can't kill him by Night anyway. The only problem with this is if someone pulls a bluff.

But I'm not yet really sure what the rule book states.

Anyways, I think this is the best time for us to utilize everything we've learned from history. Surely we know most of the others well enough to guess who the Wizards could be, and who they could have scried/cursed? The best thing for us to do right now is think: If I'm the EW, who would I want to do the kills for me?

I'll let you answer that since I'm not quite prepared to drop names for now. And sure, the EW could have had someone more unique in mind, but the events last Night seems to prove otherwise. They both want the same people. It's up to us to guess who those could have been.

There, my nonsense First Day post.

[Cailín]

I do not think the Good Wizard should reveal himself so hastily. The Evil Wizard has more to fear from a hidden enemy - if he knows which villager fights against him, he could better anticipate his actions.

It's up to the Good Wizard.

As to speculating who the choices were... this village is filled with cunning and talented liars and traitors. I am not sure whether it would be helpful to try answer that question. I could come up with a few names.

What is interesting, however, is that the wizards themselves were chosen and chose to be wizards, too. Something worth remembering, perhaps.

[Lhunardawen]

Originally Posted by Caílin

As to speculating who the choices were... this village is filled with cunning and talented liars and traitors. I am not sure whether it would be helpful to try answer that question. I could come up with a few names.

I'm sure we all do. A lot are talented, but there are only a few who are immensely notable.

But my guess is that even if we have ideas who these people could be, we will be unwilling to lynch them knowing how much help they could be if they were scried. I am reminded (good thing my memory serves me well or else I'll have to chasten my own mother *s at Diamond*) by an event in the past when a certain person named Kuruharan was lynched because his fellow villagers were uncertain of his loyalty, though they were loathe to do it for he contributed much. In that case the lynching turned out to be fortunate, since he was cursed. But will we have the will to do it again?

What is interesting, however, is that the wizards themselves were chosen and chose to be wizards, too. Something worth remembering, perhaps.

Aye. Who have the most time in their hands? Hmm...

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Kath

Mum, Dad? Now where have they disappeared off to?

You naughty, wayward child! Go to your room! *followed by an admirable gesture of command*

Why don't you try to be like your brother, Gurthang. He was the same age as you when he obtained our clan's bloodline ability. Now he's a . . . stable hand?

Wrong universe, bucko.

Right. Enedwaith, what's all these talk about the Good and Evil Wizard? Haven't you heard of the third Wizard? The unsung hero of the ages?

I AM THE WIZARD OF APATHY.

Now, there's no need to thank me or worship me. I just want to read your posts in peace, before I vote for . . .

You think I'd vote for myself, now that I have a family? You must have boulders in your head!!!

Oh, yes, you still will. You can't resist it.

We'll see about that . . .

[Cailín]

Aye. Who have the most time in their hands? Hmm...

Gurthang. Does he ever sleep at all?

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

I rather agree with Gurthang about going after the Wizards, preferably the Evil one.

Originally Posted by phantom

And so, since he cannot be lynched, cannot be killed by wolves, and cannot be cursed by the EW, the Good Wizard fears NOTHING!

Still, the GW is concerned to leave the Village with three Gifteds when the time of the Wizards' battle comes.

The EW may want to make as many wolves as s/he can before the Wizards kill one another, but then again, the more there are Wolves the easier it is to find one. At that point the Wolves already know each other and killing one will hopefully give us clues to catch the rest of them, too.

I think it's a bigger blow to the Village to be left without all three Gifteds and fewer wolves than with a fully functioning trio of gifts and a wolf or two more.

Now, phantom makes the situation sound pretty bright for us, but that's what the Evil Wizard would like to do; to make the Villagers believe that we don't have much to be scared of. I agree that if we accidentally stumble across the GW, it's not a fatal error, but then the EW has the ability to decide when it's time to get back to the basic WW again, and that could be a big advantage.

Originally Posted by Cailín

What is interesting, however, is that the wizards themselves were chosen and chose to be wizards, too. Something worth remembering, perhaps.

Indeed.

[Lhunardawen]

dancing spawn, you had me thinking.

You're right. I'm sure the EW would rather have his wolves not know each other to make it easier for them to slip past us. So, again, we can say that he fears death.

But for the innocents, we'd want to have all gifteds and wolves who know each other: regular Werewolf dynamics. So it would serve us best to have the Wizards done with, even the GW so long as he has given out all gifts.

It's entirely up to the GW, but I think it would be a good idea for him to reveal himself (again, if this is legal) once all the gifts have been assigned. If the EW won't call him out to battle, at least we'll have someone trustworthy to follow.

And now that I've thought of it, bluffing as the GW won't work, either.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I've to go, since I've got a memoir to write. It's called the Book of Nilpaurion and it'll be available in bookstores Yavannië neldë.

I'm pretty confident about my vote, though.

++Nogrod

Surprise, surprise! Not a self-vote! See you tomorrow, I hope.

[Celuien]

Nilp didn't vote for himself? I think I'll faint.

Some interesting things have happened since I was away. Will return in a bit with thoughts.

[Lhunardawen]

I shouldn't even be here this late. Next time I hope you're ready for really early votes. Like seven hours into the game.

Now, hmm. I'm tempted to vote for Nilp 'cause he voted for my dad. That, and he didn't vote for himself.

Aha!

++EOMER OF THE ROHIRRIM

because he has a great propensity for evil. And he left me just when I was prepared to marry him. Take this!

[The Saucepan Man]

This is a terrible blow to our village, and my thoughts are with Diamond18 and her kin. A sad loss indeed. And now, we have to do our best to find the culprits, as the Watchers have bade us do. I am sorry that I have not been able to contribute so far, but my duties at the tavern have kept me busy.

I bid you all come to the Salty Seal, where we may discuss these things in comfort and with a drink to strengthen our spirits. I shall not charge thee on a day such as this (provided you do not seek to take advantage).

Were I to let petty vengeances guide my thoughts, I would be looking towards mormegil and Eomer. Mormegil has always thought his daughter too good for a lowly innkeeper such as me and has never approved of the match. And Eomer, the rogue, is presumptious enough to court my beloved daugher, Kitanna, without first seeking my permission.

Yet it is not village affairs that have guided the Evil Wizard’s hand, I am sure, but cold, hard logic. And that is what I intend to use to counter him (or her).

As others have intimated, we must bear in mind that these beasts were not randomly chosen, as in the tales of old, but hand selected by the Evil Wizard. Were I him, I would not have chosen those who, by virtue of their reputation or ancestry, were likely to be the subject of a Seerish dream on the first Night or who are likely targets for a lynching on the first Day. On this basis, a number of villagers can, I think,be discounted as unlikely choices by the Evil Wizard.

And, much as I would like to see the back of him for his antagonistic behaviour and insufferable gloating, I doubt that Loki would have been a great choice for the Evil Wizard. His reputation, even before this Day, makes him a quite likely candidate for lynching. Then again, one motive for claiming to be the de-Werewolved villager would be to divert attention from himself. If that was his intention, then it has backfired. Nevertheless, I will disegard him for today, based on my reasoning above.

Were I the Evil Wizard, I would have chosen from the following villagers:

Cailín, Lalaith, Caranlondien, Celuien, Valier, Kitanna, Azaelia or Naria, Oddwen, Alcarillo, Roa, Firefoot, Diamond and Gurthang.

That doesn’t narrow things down as much as I would like. However, I suspect that the Evil Wizard, if applying his or her mind, will have selected villagers with different styles. Based on my knowledge of them, and the tales of their ancestors’ exploits, I would divide them as follows, and assume that the Evil Wizard would select one Wolf from each grouping:

1 of Cailín, Lalaith, Caranlondien or Celuien
1 of Valier, Kitanna, Azaelia or Naria, Oddwen, or Alcarillo
1 of Roa, Firefoot, Diamond or Gurthang

One Wolf, we know, was turned back, which paradoxically makes things more difficult, even if my reasoning is on course (and there’s no guarantee that it is, or that the Evil Wizard would think like me).

And of course, that does not help us find the Evil Wizard and I agree that anything that we can do to unmask him (or her) will be worthwhile. More thoughts on that anon.

[The Saucepan Man]

Gurthang was, I think, the first to bring up the idea of looking for the Wizards. My initial reaction was to suspect him for it. I still do, slightly, since he was talking about finding both Wizards. I think we should, as far as we can, try to avoid identifying the Good Wizard, at this stage at least. With no Gifteds and two Wolves to hide among a great number of villagers, the Evil Wizard might fancy his/her chances at this point and call the Good Wizard out. Even if s/he does not, identifying the GW would still allow the EW to pick his/her time, provided s/he remains hidden. For this reason, I am also wary of Lhuna’s suggestion that the GW might want to declare today.

The plan has, however, been somewhat refined since Gurthang’s initial suggestion. As the phantom and others have helpfully pointed out (and it speaks in their favour), the GW and the EW have different objectives, different fears and therefore, in all likelihood, will exhibit different styles.

The difficulty in spotting the EW is that s/he will be doing his/her best to remain hidden and not to stir up controversy. Or at least to behave as we would expect him/her to, so as not to draw attention to him/herself. That in itself may help us in finding him/her.

Originally Posted by Caílin

What is interesting, however, is that the wizards themselves were chosen and chose to be wizards, too. Something worth remembering, perhaps.

This perhaps is the best thing we have to go on at the moment. It applies, of course, to both Wizards, and so we must be careful that it does not lead us to reveal the Good Wizard. Yet each will have been selected to be either Good or Evil, so there may be something to go on here.

I must, alas, depart for a few hours, but I hope to return in a few hours.

[Glirdan]

I am here at last. It's been a long day for myself. Poor Elempi. I couldn't get the picture of his body out of my head so I ran to my favorite thinking spot to cool down.

Now, seeing as I just got here, I really don't know what's going on, excpet that my beloved Kath has been here. But where is she? I don't see her smiling face in the crowd.

But it is getting late for me, so I think I'd better pack myself off to bed before I get grounded. Til tomorrow (RL)!

Ahhh! Now I understand! I suffer from this same fatal illness, which is another reason why I have not come in until now.

Now I see that I have a lot to go over and I shall so I will be back with my thoughts shortly.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Sauce

The difficulty in spotting the EW is that s/he will be doing his/her best to remain hidden and not to stir up controversy. Or at least to behave as we would expect him/her to, so as not to draw attention to him/herself. That in itself may help us in finding him/her.

I think that depends on who the EW is. If it is someone who's usually a loudmouth, it would look mighty suspicious if they suddenly started acting very subtly.

I doubt that Loki would have been a great choice for the Evil Wizard.

Well, usually the villagers are ready to give a newcomer the benefit of doubt, a Seer won't usually bother to dream of someone completely new and depending on who the Wizards are, I think it's possible that the idea of making Loki a Wolf intrigued the EW. However, if Loki speaks the truth, I don't have a clue. I could presume that even if he was chosen by the EW, he's not necessarily the one that the GW chose, too.


Aside of Wizard matters, I find there to be something odd in Lhuna's behaviour.
Firstly, I don't agree with her suggestion that the GW might want to reveal themselves now. Well, that's not a crime, per se, I know a lot of people disagree with my logics and may be quite right in doing so, but I think we should even try to find the EW before the GW steps forward. Now that the GW has no Gifteds on his/her side, and there are two wolves among 30 villagers, the numbers wouldn't be very favourable for us.

She poses a question asking for names for possible wolves, but refuses to answer herself. Then she pulls out an example of a situation where a big-name villager was lynched with profitable consequences even though he contributed much. Lhuna wonders if we have the courage to do it in this Village, too. I'm not sure what to think of this. Yes, it's probable that the Wizards are people with some kind of a reputation, and yes, if someone usually helpful Villager looks very suspicious, then it's our duty to try to find out if there's some reason to it regardless of their contributions, but the way Lhuna says this makes me uneasy.

Then she suggests that the GW reveals themselves as soon as they have made three Gifteds. What's the hurry? Let's see what the situation is when we get there. When we don't make any firm plans yet, the Evil team can't base their startegy on the possible flaws of the Good team's plan. A vote follows for Eomer based on astrology, or something, and because of relationships.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Now, seeing as I just got here, I really don't know what's going on, excpet that my beloved Kath has been here. But where is she? I don't see her smiling face in the crowd.

I believe her dad told her to go to her room.

[Thinlómien]

Alas for the gentle old man! He was one of the few villagers that gave me candy voluntarily!

Remember also that in this game the wizards can choose who fight in their sides. I doubt they'd not choose good players.

If I were the EW I would choose wolves from the intelligent, but not really really respected and feared players. People that wouldn't be suspected because "ah, x is so cunning person, the EW must have chosen him/her" or be lynched because "better to see him/her dead before the EW picks him/her". I would choose players like: Roa (sorry momma), Gurthang, Diamond, Nogrod, Kath, Lhuna, Kitanna, Caílin and Lalaith. I guess I'm along quite the same lines with SPM here (if I understood him correctly).

I agree that we should try to find the EW, but we can't focus our search only on him/her, otherwise he just laughs by him/herself (I agree with the people who say EW will be a quite silent hider) and increases the wolf amount until they kill us all.

One thing I advise people to remember too is that the wolves will be much more difficult to find this time since they can't be caught from slimy co-operation, since they don't know each other.

edit: x-posted with my brother and Mrs. Felagund

[Cailín]

Interesting list, Saucepan Man.

However, we might assume the Evil Wizard does not follow your train of thought. Logically, the Good Wizard would scry those whom he believes likely to be the Evil Wizard. And likely candidates for that profession are generally those you deliberately excluded from your list. At least, that is what I suspect. Since the Good Wizard and the Evil Wizard chose the same person… could it be possible that they indeed would go for those villagers with a horrible reputation haunting them?

I am still trying to come to terms with this all.

In the meantime, how come Nilpaurion did not vote for himself? I find this very worrisome – yet his marriage to fair Dancing Spawn may have given him renewed joy in life.

Lhunardawen is definitely suspicious. The minute Eomer left, she just marries someone from another village and that entirely without my interference. A very displeasing sort of independence. Oh and she made a pitiful suggestion as well.

Edit: cross-posted with Spawn and Lommy.

[Cailín]

I am not really respected? Indeed, what insolence is that?

[Glirdan]

Glirdan ~ Owl.(Diamond)

This is an interesting thought my friend, however, you are completely mistaken. I do not have wings and I cannot turn my head in a full circle.

Caran ~ The eldest child of Roa and Sleepy, obviously prone to bouts of uncontrollable evil, and with parents like that, who can blame her? Still, she's just your ordinary psychopath. Can't find any traces of fur on her.

Lommy ~ Another one of them Roa/Sleepy spawn. This one's clearly got hair sprouting in all the wrong places.

And why, may I ask, are you attacking my siblings? What has my family ever done to yours to deserve this kind of treatment?

I agree with all those who believe that Loki is quiet...what's the word I'm looking for? Ahh! Yes! Shady.

I doubt that Loki would have been a great choice for the Evil Wizard.

I actually must differ on this. Because Loki is a newcommer, it is quite possible that the EW wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt and let him try his hand at having a special role. The GW could very well have predicted this and decided to change him back for this. However, can we take his word that he was the un-changed one? Because I really don't think I can. He's been a little too offensive and all over rules of the game. This makes me very uneasy about him.

I'm off for the time being, but if you need me, don't be hesitant to call.

xed with the three above

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by spawn

I think that depends on who the EW is. If it is someone who's usually a loudmouth, it would look mighty suspicious if they suddenly started acting very subtly.

A good point I didn't think about. Finding the EW might be even trickier than I imagined it'd be. *sigh*

Cailín's post got me thinking. I know I'm starting my endless flow-of-consciousness posting (or to but it bluntly, flip-flopping) now, but I can't help thinking that the EW might have actually chosen these "big guys" since he/she might predict that we make the kind of assumptions of intelligent-but-not-big-guys -players as I did in my last post. It seems that the theory is quite basic since it occured to me without much thinking, so I think the EW would try to avoid such predictable choices.

If you ask, which of my theories I myself support (which is a fair question) I can say "no idea" since, I need more thinking to find a solution that makes sense. These are just thoughts.

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

But for the innocents, we'd want to have all gifteds and wolves who know each other: regular Werewolf dynamics. So it would serve us best to have the Wizards done with, even the GW so long as he has given out all gifts.

This was more or less my line of thought when I first said we needed to find one (preferably the Evil) wizard. One can't die without the other also doing so, and finding either one may help speed up when their simultaneous(sp?) deaths occur, thus leaving us with less werewolves to deal with.

Saucepan, you are basically thinking along the same lines that I was. At least saying that wizards would choose someone who is unlikely to be lynched early and either unlikely to be dreamed of or unlikely to be killed by werewolves.

Which is, ironically, saying that we should be looking for those of less 'ww repute'. Not a pleasant thing to be accusing people of. In fact, I'm entirely offended that I am even considered on you list. ( )

But alas, I really must get back to my stable handing... Which means a vote. Let's see what I can rummage together.

Here:

++Thinlómien

since she comes last aphabetically in the 'list' I made up earlier.

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by Cailín

However, we might assume the Evil Wizard does not follow your train of thought. Logically, the Good Wizard would scry those whom he believes likely to be the Evil Wizard.

I don't necessarily think so. I'd think the GW would, at first, be concerned with making gifteds that would do their job well. I mean, after all, even if the GW finds the EW, he won't want to challenge him with no gifteds made.

Also, spawn is making some good points about Lhuna. But now I really must go.

[Firefoot]

Which is, ironically, saying that we should be looking for those of less 'ww repute'. Not a pleasant thing to be accusing people of.

Less repute, or people who just generally don't arouse a lot of suspicion. Which is why I'm not surprised to be on SpM's list. People don't like to lynch me. And on this list of people, I probably would not be one of the first seer dreams, either.

So despite my being on it, I rather agree with SpM's proposition. Even if it only does only knock out about half the people, I think it's a good place to start - at least for Day 1. (Hopefully SpM is not the EW...)

[Thinlómien]

I would rather not have people voting preventively, with reasons "oh, the EW might have chosen him/her, since s/he is so xxx" or "s/he's too dangerous if s/he is turned into a lycantrophe, let's kill him/her". That's so wrong that it screams.

I think we should preferably look at the actions of people (I know it's difficult on day 1), since we really can't predict the wizard tactics (or at least I can't). Spawn has made interesting observations on Lhuna. I think she's a good example of how we should/could play.

I fear we might be blinded by our expectations and presumptions on what the EW would do.

edit: x-posted with Firefoot and Gurthang's newer post

[Diamond18]

Well, I'm glad to see I'm not going to be the first out of the voting blocks, I thought that by voting a good 9 hours early I'd be kicking things off. But, what's all this?

Originally Posted by the Nilpster

I'm pretty confident about my vote, though.

++Nogrod

Attacking my hubby, eh? Lynching my jester, eh? Battledores, attack!

Actually, I can't fault you too much. There were a few things that felt a little off about my Noggie before he disappeared (wherever DID he go?) and that fact alone is very odd for him. He's usually in the thick of it.... Morm is another one who has been more quiet than I'm used to, as the mayor of our fine town he usually has quite a bit to say about the affairs therein. I have not the time to count the exact number of times he has spoken up, but I think it was just the once. Very odd.

However, I'm not voting for either of those chaps.

+ + LOKI

Maybe he's the one scried by the GW, but then again, maybe he ain't.

Frankly, there is no one else at this early point that I'd rather see gone. Without more than niggling suspicions I don't feel comfortable campaigning for the death of any of my family and friends, so yes, Loki is getting the outsider vote. I'd give him the benefit of the doubt (I've never voted for a first timer before) if it weren't for his general churlishness.

And now, I must bit good day and head off to the battledore shop. The demand for battledores in this village is ridiculous, everyone must have really dusty rugs. In fact, I'll be spending the afternoon beating rugs. What a fun thought.

I am sorry to my family that I won't be able to do as I'd hoped, that is, help spare you at a crticial time if anyone tries to lynch you. But being the provider for this family (I'm wondering now why my husband gets to retire while I continue to toil!) I cannot slack off and let them go hungry. If I do that the terror... er, I mean, werewolves... will have won!

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Piracy? Well, I have sailed on numerous voyages to distant and debatable lands; and, like most people, I've dabbled in a bit of jewel-trading. That's all in the past, though. Mormegil, venerable man, and Good Saucepan Man and beautiful Lady Celuien, I meant not to show disrespect to your family; but Kitanna and I, our destiny is to be together! Won't you bless us? Because, you know, this village might only last a few more days, and weddings are mighty complicated to arrange.

Wizards, eh? Well, it would appear that someone in this village is especially desirable: wanted by both sorcerers. Who is that desirable? For the EW primarily wants his wolves, and the GW wants a good gifted as well as the EW.

An all-round talented player, who is confident enough to school him/herself in magic [read: asked to be a wizard]

To my mind, that narrows it down. I've found a couple of these early votes to be somewhat inappropriate.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Piracy? Well, I have sailed on numerous voyages to distant and debatable lands; and, like most people, I've dabbled in a bit of jewel-trading. That's all in the past, though. Mormegil, venerable man, and Good Saucepan Man and beautiful Lady Celuien, I meant not to show disrespect to your family; but Kitanna and I, our destiny is to be together! Won't you bless us? Because, you know, this village might only last a few more days, and weddings are mighty complicated to arrange.

You've quite a long way to go, young man, ere I will lend my support to your cause. Though I will confess, I am not wholly unsympathetic, my own romance having been frowned upon in my younger days. We shall see.

Originally Posted by SPM

The difficulty in spotting the EW is that s/he will be doing his/her best to remain hidden and not to stir up controversy. Or at least to behave as we would expect him/her to, so as not to draw attention to him/herself. That in itself may help us in finding him/her.

That does seem the wisest move for the EW. As the phantom pointed out, once found, the GW may have good reason to call an early challenge and prevent werewolf population expansion. Though I would not expect a too early challenge.

We still have no gifteds. But after night four, when the gifted population could be complete and the werewolves have reached (let me count now: 2 currently, one added toNIGHT (and one gifted), 3 tomorrow night and one more added (two gifteds) and 4 the night after, plus one more (three gifteds)) for 5 wolves to 3 gifteds, then the time might be right for a challenge. Assuming that the wizards don't choose the same villager again, of course, and that no un-gifting/cursing occurs.

To make it even more difficult to flush out the EW, we can't even count on a defense of his/her creatures from him/her. The wolves s/he curses are expendable so long as the wolf under attack isn't the last one. Killed wolves can be replaced overnight, so why bother to save them in the day and risk a self-exposure?

I hesitate to discuss wizard spotting strategies further since they could equally be applied to the GW. While the phantom has a point about the GW having little to fear, I for one would not want to risk inadvertently exposing the GW to the EW prematurely.

Now, I'm not really excited about voting for anyone who has been proposed so far. While I'm itching to give that rascally Loki a piece of my mind (), I'm unwilling to vote for him before he has a chance to prove himself in the village. I am puzzled a little by his declaration, since I find its veracity lacking, but it seems an unwolf like thing to do as it guarantees attention. I think that, like his trickster namesake, he's sowing confusion. Which irritates me, but is not grounds for me to vote for him. Yet.

Now I must be off. My store of herbs is low and needs replenishing. I'll return in a few hours.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Cailín

There are more pressing matters to deal with, however. Fea, dear, are you sure you do not wish to remarry? I found such a great match for you. Trust me.

I was rather enjoying being single. Still... who might it be?

Originally Posted by Thinlo

I would rather not have people voting preventively, with reasons "oh, the EW might have chosen him/her, since s/he is so xxx" or "s/he's too dangerous if s/he is turned into a lycantrophe, let's kill him/her". That's so wrong that it screams.

At the risk of dying early, I have to say that this is a pretty good idea and shouldn't be discounted due to dubious morality. Why leave those around that you trust that much less than others? Then again, it's rather reassuring to have people around that you don't trust because at least then you aren't totally without target. Whichever way, don't be so quick to deny possible strategies; it makes you look nervous.

I also agree with whomever it was that mentioned searching out the wizards. It gives us a legitimate project for day one. It will put them off guard. Sure, it would mean sacrificing the good wizard in all probability, but since the good wizard lives to die in such a way, I won't feel too badly about it. Consider: who would expect that an entire village would gang up on their wizards? Surely we would want to keep our good wizard around. Blah blah pros and cons blah blah. With the pressure of an entire village actively seeking, the evil wizard will have to be REALLY good to avoid screwing up.

Since we can't get rid of our evil'uns until the evil wizard is gone, it's in our best interest to kill him/her as quickly as possible.

As for me... I'll be in and out over the next few hours until I have to go [tend sheep]. I can't guarantee that I won't disappear again... I hope more than you can imagine that I won't, but I can't guarantee it.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

What's the point in saying "I trust so-and-so"? I'm assuming this refers to thinking like "I trust Loki less than I trust Saucepan Man". Where does this get us? In this village, at this moment, it is totally irrelevant.

Maybe I just misunderstand what you are saying, Fea.

Now, I'm just saying, that if I were a wizard, of any persuasion, I would have chosen Lalaith. She's my number one pick for the wolf-who-was-cured. And I base that on pretty much nothing but a feeling.

I'm just saying.