WWJ VIII ~ Things That Go "Quack" In The Night

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Where is SpM?

I’m here. Sorry that I wasn’t able to make it earler, but it’s been a hectic day in the fields. Lots of crows to deal with. I was hoping to get on during my lunch-hour, but unfortunately didn’t have time.

I suppose we are still left with the possibility that Mith was the Goose. But I just don’t see it. Her claim throughout seemed the more credible to me. And Glirdan as Goose is not so far-fetched as Nogrod would have it. The Goose’s job is to cause confusion and mislead the village, by his own death if necessary. Glirdan, if the Goose, has certainly achieved that, even if he did unwittingly name a Duck (presumably believing her to be innocent).

By my reckoning, therefore, Glirdan was the Goose, Mith the true Owl, and Valier is innocent. Per Nogrod’s theory, we cannot regard Valier completely as such, but I see it as extremely unlikely that she’s a Duck.

Which leaves morm, Cailin, Kath and Nogrod (As far as I am concerned, at least).

Mormegil I have strongly suspected for a number of days now. My reasoning from yesterday stands. And I am concerned over his seeming eagerness to lynch Kath today. He uses Kath’s voting record against her, yet his own also looks suspicious to me. He has voted twice for known Ducks, participating in their lynching, which speaks in his favour on the face of it. Yet not if the circumstances in which those votes were cast is taken into account. On Day 2, he voted for spawn following Glirdan’s declaration. Since, following that declaration, she was almost certainly going to be lynched, it was an astute vote for a Duck. On Day 3, he voted for Jenny when it was all but certain that either he or she would be lynched. If he is a Duck, he really had no choice but to vote for her. He may have thought that two Duck-on-Duck votes would be sufficient to clear him of suspicion. I don't think that they do, because each was a logical vote for a Duck at the time that it was cast. So, morm still tops my suspicion list.

Cailín has come to represent something of a problem for me. I can see little to suggest that she is a Duck and have assumed her innocent ‘til now. Yet I am also wary of the dangers of assuming someone innocent. Indeed, it is in some ways easier for a Duck to appear innocent than a villager, since the villagers are usually stumbling around in the dark, often drawing the wrong conclusions, while Ducks have the advantage of knowing who’s innocent. We should not discount her (nor, indeed, her alter ego, non-Cailín).

Kath’s voting record does look suspicious, given that, on Days 1, 2 and 3, she voted for someone other than the Duck that was lynched. But would a Duck be so careless as to allow this to happen three Days running, thus drawing (as it has) undue attention to her? On Day 2, her vote was cast after Glirdan’s declaration, when it looked likely that spawn would be lynched. Her best vote, as a Duck, would surely have been for spawn. I do not discount her as a Duck, but her voting pattern might equally be that of a misguided innocent. And, other than her voting record, I can see nothing to suggest that she’s a Duck.

Originally Posted by mormegil

Kath ... you find trivial matters and try and use them against others, me ususually, and do it at a time when you can add fuel to the mormegil fire.

Morm, would you mind providing some examples? This is not something that has been apparent to me.

Nogrod I suspected yesterday as a possible Duck for the apparent change in his behaviour after Day 1. His continued speculation that Mith may have been the Goose may, if he is a Duck, be designed to confuse. Certainly, I do not understand his point about Glirdan’s behaviour being strange for a Goose. From where I am standing, it looks like classic Goose behaviour to me. And it would, of course, be in the Duck’s best interests to add Valier back into the mix as a possible Duck.

Valier, as I have said, I am regarding as innocent, unless anything happens to persuade me of the contrary.

All of which leaves me in rather a quandary …

[The Saucepan Man]

For the record, here's yesterday's voting record:

1. Mith for Lote (Lote-1)
2. Cailín for Kath (Lote-1, Kath-1)
3. SpM for Lote (Lote-2, Kath-1)
4. Morm for Kath (Lote-2, Kath-2)
5. Kath for Lote (Lote-3, Kath-2)
6. Nogrod for Kath (Lote-3, Kath-3)
7. Valier for Lote (Lote-4, Kath-3)

Did not vote: Lote

I don't think that it tells us much, given that there were only ever two candidates for eviction and only one Duck remains.

[Valier]

Well it's nice to see that everyone is talking....except Cailin so far....which is weird.... I can see how Nogrod may think I am a Duck, but even if Mith was a goose, she would of course say I am an Ordo before she died to mess us up even further. After reading everything over, I tend to agree with SPM on Kath. I thought something was up with her, but her voting pattern does suggest a confused villager, as I have often ended up like her in most games. Morm does seem a little odd with his push towards Kath as soon as the day started. Calilin is way more talkative than this!! She may be away though, that's why there is non-Cailin, so they may be just as confused as we are, just less vocal. I am sooooooo confused! My gut feeling is indeed going down about Kath....Who could it be?


Ok, Duck! Give yourself up now!!! Just raise your little feathery wing, and I promise we will kill you "nicely"

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Valier

Morm does seem a little odd with his push towards Kath as soon as the day started.

Both SpM and Valier need to remember that I've been suspecting Kath for about 3 days now so an immediate push isn't odd. I've continued to view her as guilty and a night of sleep isn't going to change how I feel. In essence we are saying that the Duck is either Kath, Cailin, or Me. I accept that and generally agree, as you know. Out of those three Kath and I look the most suspcious and indeed I cannot fathom another being a Duck, though the possibility exists. Therefore I propose lynching either of us today and the other tomorrow.

Kath what say you?

[Valier]

Ok I was reading through and noticed Spawn talked alot about Roa (duck) and Mormegil...could be a duckish tactic....hhhmmmmm

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Valier

Ok I was reading through and noticed Spawn talked alot about Roa (duck) and Mormegil...could be a duckish tactic....hhhmmmmm

But we know Roa wasn't a duck...so where are you going with this?

[Valier]

So I guess there's no way we can have a double lynch? What if we tie the votes and the last two to vote, vote at the exact same time....would it be a double lynch then? I know, I know, but this is driving me batty!

I wish we could lynch two and bring us closer to a win...So the nightinggale is still alive eh? I have an idea who it is...If it is someone other than SPM or myself (obviously) then perhaps they should come out and narrow the list....I know I have a good chance of dieing tonight if they protected me last night, so I would love to catch that Duck before I go...

[Valier]

Originally Posted by Morm

But we know Roa wasn't a duck...so where are you going with this?

Ok...right...I told you I was going Batty! Take no notice of this blunder...

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Both SpM and Valier need to remember that I've been suspecting Kath for about 3 days now so an immediate push isn't odd.

It's not your suspicion of her that alarmed me, but your the suggestion, implicit in what you said, that there could surely be no reason not to lynch her.

Originally Posted by mormegil

Can anybody give me any reason as to why we shouldn't lynch Kath?

This reeks to me of a Duck trying to take control and manipulate the village into lynching an innocent.

Originally Posted by mormegil

Therefore I propose lynching either of us today and the other tomorrow.

Dangerous, if neither of you is the Duck (I have most certainly not discounted a Night 2 conversion of Nogrod). But, to me, your "ever so reasonable" suggestion implies that Kath should be the one we lynch first. Then, when we find her innocent, a Duckish morm will no doubt come up with countless reasons why we should not follow through with the plan.

Is this the last, desparate ploy of a cornered Duck? I suspect that it might well be.

[mormegil]

Well I've done a brief perusal of Spawn's post seeing if and when she mentioned other Ducks. She never once mentioned JennyHallu. Really didn't say anthing on Nilp and only in Post 191 did she mention Kath. That mention was more of a quick passing comment about the 'duel' between Kath and Sleepy.

Yet Spawn seemed to do analysis of many people all known innocents exept me, but to me I am known to be innocent but I don't expect anybody to take my word on that of course.

Now I would like to go through Jenny's posts and see of the mention of Kath and Spawn in them.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by SpM

Is this the last, desparate ploy of a cornered Duck? I suspect that it might well be.

My dear Saucie, I must say that I am somewhat insulted that you think so poorly of me. If I were a duck I wouldn't give up at this point. Last desperate ploy indeed! Somebody once said something about me, in this village too, that something I did was either very altruistic or very duckish, I wish somebody could view me as an altruist.

[mormegil]

I am not surprised. My search of JennyHallu's post turned up very little said about both Spawn and Kath.

Jenny in post 100 outlines everybody in the village and says the following things, now obviously either Jenny, Spawn or the third duck (kath) are innocent being day 1 and all.

DSoU: She's only posted twice today, so don't expect to see a lot here. She had some confusion as to the rules that's been picked up on as a reason for vote. This makes little sense to me. I'd like to hear more from Spawn, but I don't think her question says anything towards her quackiness

Kath: Says little, but to the point. No opinion

Nilp: Voted for himself...seems to be standard operating procedure. Withholding judgment (or any sort of opinion, really) until tomorrow.

Yet on most others she has some sort of opinion.

Post 105 all suspicions of known innocents, not that this in and of itself means a lot but let me explain.

Nilp, Jenny, and Spawn seem to have not mentioned each other much at all and never brought any strong suspicion against each other. I've demonstrated that they've been all but silent on Kath. The people against whom they spoke, with the exclusion of me, are all known innocents. If their behavior patterns remains consistent, which I believe it would, it should follow that the final duck was seldom mentioned. All the ducks, obviously not Nilp, but Kath included have attempted to bring up a case against me. Think about that.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by mormegil

My dear Saucie, I must say that I am somewhat insulted that you think so poorly of me. If I were a duck I wouldn't give up at this point.

I never said that you were giving up. If you are a Duck, however, you are in fairly desperate straights right now. Your approach may signify a spirited attempt to keep yourself alive today and cross tomorrow's bridge when you come to it.

Originally Posted by mormegil

If their behavior patterns remains consistent, which I believe it would, it should follow that the final duck was seldom mentioned.

The last thing that I would expect from the Ducks, assuming them to be playing well, would be for them to all behave alike. Nor would I expect them necessarily to avoid mention of each other. The traditional approach, is it not, is to spread some suspicion of one's fellow Ducks where it is safe to do so, but without driving it home? I am not sure that we should read too much into Jenny's post that you refer to, as she mentioned a number of people, innocents and Ducks alike, in a fairly neutral way. Spawn's vote for you speaks in your favour admittedly, but she was (presumably) not to know at that time what havoc would ensue.

But, on reflection, I am concerned whether we might be focussing too strongly on you and Kath. It is quite possible that neither of you is a Duck and that either Nogrod was converted on Night 2 or Cailin has been successfully flying under our collective radars. That worries me, and it is why I thought your earlier proposal to lynch either you or Kath today and the other tomorrow a dangerous one. It is also one to which the sole Duck (if not you or Kath) would readily agree.

[mormegil]

SpM you speak fair sense and it helps allay any doubt that you were converted on night 2. Well my good SpM what do you propose? I still think Kath highly suspect and want her lynched. I really would like to hear a bit more from Valier, as she is the only one I trust 100%

[Valier]

I agree with SPM once again on the points that we have been only looking at Kath and Morm as suspects. I have been thinking along these same lines all day. I still worry that if we don't lynch Kath tonight she may well be the duck and is getting away for another day. Since I can only truely trust myself, since the possibilitiy of either Nogrod or SPM having been switched to the dark side, I find it hard to make a definative choice. Yesterday's vote for Lote was not what I felt I should do, but I decided I should in the end go with SPM and Mith and vote her out. I don't want to make the same mistake again today. I more than likely will be killed tonight, so I want to make this vote count....


I am leaning towards Kath and more so Cailin at the moment, I still find it odd that she is no where to be seen yet today. I would like to hear more options from others and hopefully even some numbers on if we lynch so and so we have a ----chance probability of catching a duck..I am not good with these things but it may just come down to numbers, I will try to work them out myself, but some help would be great.

[Nogrod]

Ok., things seem to be moving. That's good.

I agree with Spm, that (non-)Cailin is really dangerously quiet. I can't say anything bad of her, except to the fact, that now the posting has somewhat ceased after the change of the roles. She told us something about her brother being the more intelligent and polite (or something), but she kind of didn't note us on these one-message policies. ANd what to say about this substitution-stuff anyway? A well-meaning villager who wants to not fail us others as she has RL things going on, or the duck who wants to take adventage of her RL fortunes?

Anyway. Even as I have tried to raise further questions today about the other possibilities we have (over this widely shared theory of Mith's owlness, leading to the primary suspects being Kath, Morm and Cailin), I still think it as the safest voting scheme today. Well why? If Mith-goose scenario is wrong, then Valier is innocent, Spm's chances of being turned into something feathery are quite small, and would need a certain interpretation of the rules to add on that. My chances of being converted are small also - and I happen to know, that nothing happened. But as Morm said. You can just take it or leave it. You have just my words on this thread. But then we can pick from just the three candidates. That's easier. And that's why I worry about it.

But, if we make a misguided lynch today, it all depends on tomorrow. And I can't be sure, whether I will be there then, so I have tried to help the village with these questions of mine today. They really should be discussed tomorrow. For if we go wrong today, it really forces us to think more widely.

Now someone said, I might be the goose here. I admit I have tried to add complexity to our choices, but not with the idea of misguiding us, but for us to see the real possibilities. I have never been in a game with a cobbler (or a goose), and don't know, what's the "standard procedure" to being a goose. But I just see Glirdan's actions so reckless and overhasty to benefit either himself (as a goose) or the ducks.

But what I'm really asking you fellow villagers, is that when you think about possible scenarios, you should be able to see the larger picture. You can't go on blaming Glirdan as a goose - and me as a goose at the same time! So if you think I am the goose, then Glirdan was innocent (and thence, probably an owl)! See the consequences of your ideas, and do not try to muddy the waters! If Glirdan was innocent - and I'm the goose, what the heck was the ordo-Mith then doing?

But shouldn't we also consider this possibility of two owls I mentioned early (well maybe tomorrow, if we miss today)? Surely we should. It leaves us with basically the list of suspects than does the Owl-Mith scenario, but it leaves the possibility of the goose being still loose - it doesn't mean s/he evidently is still around, but it would be possible then. And that would be bad news indeed.

If we would come to believe on this scenario (remember: the possibility of a goose within us requires somehow both Glirdy and Mith being owls - or then some Diamond-magic ) I would go for looking at the possible goose candidates among those who really try to persuade us not to see the track of our thoughts, but who would like us to think in a most simple and misguided manner...

EDIT: X-posted with Morm & Valier

[Valier]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But, if we make a misguided lynch today, it all depends on tomorrow. And I can't be sure, whether I will be there then,

I am curious as to why you think you would die tonight. I know it is possible for anyone to be killed, if I am not killed then the Duck is set on further confusion or leading us in the wrong direction. Since I assume that I was protected last night....Hmmmmm Do we still have a nightinggale? If we do, do you think it would help if they came out? Since I may die tonight, it may not have too many consiquences if they come out. Since either they or myself will be the target, then if I do go you last Ordo's can have one more person to trust.

I hope this makes sense....just kinda thinking to myself as I write.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Valier

I am curious as to why you think you would die tonight. I know it is possible for anyone to be killed, if I am not killed then the Duck is set on further confusion or leading us in the wrong direction. Since I assume that I was protected last night....Hmmmmm Do we still have a nightinggale? If we do, do you think it would help if they came out?

I didn't actually think I would be the first in the list of the kills, but at this stage, the duck would be wise to spread the confusion with her/his kill of the night. And because of what I said (putting forward ideas you others seem to have been not very happy about), you others might be mislead to believe things that the real duck might use, one way or another by killing me. But surely, you could think these out. And if the duck is not so bright, we should not help her/him in this.

And sadly, we don't know about the nightingale. I would not talk about this matter more, sorry. I guess s/he will have to decide for her/himself... It's the last instance, to be sure, but there are risks involved. And we might need her/him still...

[Kath]

morm, those comments you quoted from Jenny, which Day are they from? Because Mith (who I still believe was the Owl) believed that she was the converted Duck, and so if those were made on Day 1 then she wouldn't have known anything about spawn or Nilp would she? She'd only have as much knowledge as the next innocent.

If, however, she was an original Duck and those comments were made on Day 1, only two of those she mentioned could have been Ducks at that time. We know spawn and Nilp were, so you can't use that logic to determine that I am one too, it gives you one too many.

[mormegil]

Jenny in post 100 outlines everybody in the village and says the following things, now obviously either Jenny, Spawn or the third duck (kath) are innocent being day 1 and all.

Kath I see your point and stated this in that exact post. I realize that one of the three females was innocent on day one but the point remains that Jenny spoke about Spawn, Nilp and you about the same. Mith thinking that Jenny was the converted Duck has absolutley no bearing on anything. Even though she were the owl she wouldn't know if she were an original Duck or a converted.

Let's assume Spawn is the converted Duck and you were original.

Jenny didn't speak much about you and Nilp on Day 1 of course she includes others in there that they perhaps wanting to kill that night, which would make sense to me. It wouldn't tie back to her when Spawn was killed. So they move in for the Spawn kill and to their surpirse, yours to I should add, she turns into a duck. The pattern of behavior from Jenny remained consistent on all. I think that you are grasping at straws.

[Kath]

Glirdy: His first post is pretty much nonsense, and includes accusations of SPM and Spawn that I'm inclined to look at as pure randomness. He's not said anything else except for two "Ho Hum, I'm herding trees elsewhere" posts.

Elu: Has basically just popped in once.

Taken from the same post by Jenny that you took your quotes from morm. Now, I realise since they are dead and I am alive I am naturally more suspicious But the point is that she made little mention of these players as well. Just because she had no opinion on me at the time doesn't mean that she was trying to avoid mentioning me.

[Nogrod]

Good that you took that up Kath. I was wondering, should I check, were there others with over-rounded opinions in Jenny's post. Somehow Morm didn't manage to point all the cases out, just those suiting his purposes - as happened on his first post on dAY2...

I'll go and see for myself, naturally, but Morm: adding to this your sudden change of tone towards Spm after his last post... Well you seem to be topping my list again. But I really have to look back again, before saying anything more to either lean towards trusting or suspecting you more.

[Nogrod]

I was just going through the dAY1 talk, as I noted something of interest - something I had kind of forgot.

In the famous post #30 Morm condsiders the goose tactics (that was somewhat suspected later as giving advice to the actual goose)

Let's think about this shall we:

1. When dead the roles will not be revealed, this includes goose and owl.
2. If the owl proclaims him/herself we will not know of the truth unless we try his/her words.
3. The goose wants to help the Ducks
4. What better way to help than flush out the owl early on?

A strategem I would use, if I were the goose, would be to declare myself the owl on day 3, maybe day 2, and hope that the real owl declares themself. So if you are the real owl and an imposter declares themself, use your discretion.

Then Spm answered this in post #67 as follows:

To be believable, the Goose would have to declare one, probably two, “Ducks“. A wise Owl will remain silent - that should go (and should have gone) without saying. Either the Goose gets “lucky” and a Duck is lynched (in which case the Goose is failing in his or her task) or an innocent is lynched, swiftly followed by the Goose. But by identifying this as a potential risk, you make it more likely that a real Owl declaration, on Day 3 for example, will not be believed. On the contrary, I think that we should believe any Owl declaration. It can soon be accurately, and lethally for a Goose masquerading as an Owl, tested.

So what to make of it? If Glirdan was the goose (on dAY2), he actually obeyed Morm's advice? (But surely Morm vaguely backed it up with the last sentence? I know, Morm, this can be looked at more benevolently too: I'm just testing some Devil's advocate stuff here - if it brings you more true than false to my eyes, I will tell it in the end) If Glirdan was a goose, he totally disregarded Spm's warnings about "bad goose tactics" and did exactly what Spm thought really bad...?

[mormegil]

Yet Spawn seemed to do analysis of many people all known innocents exept me, but to me I am known to be innocent but I don't expect anybody to take my word on that of course.

The people against whom they spoke, with the exclusion of me, are all known innocents.

Do you choose to not read carefully or are you hoping to sway popular opinion by purposefully misrepresenting my words? You can read here that I, if not stated explicitly, implied that they did speak similarly of others, but they are all dead. However their behavior pattern was consistent in the way they treated the other ducks. That's the point I'm making. Nogrod is buying it...well done Kath.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by mormegil

SpM you speak fair sense and it helps allay any doubt that you were converted on night 2. Well my good SpM what do you propose? I still think Kath highly suspect and want her lynched. I really would like to hear a bit more from Valier, as she is the only one I trust 100%

When you said I spoke sense, I presume that you were referring to my comment about the dangers of focussing too much on you and Kath. Yet you continue to display a single-minded determination to see Kath lynched without considering other possibilities. If you are innocent, you muct surely recognise the possibility that Kath is too. And you must surely see the danger then inherent in your approach. We lynch one of you today and (when that person is proven innocent) automatically lynch the other tomorrow. And lose.

Your single-mindedness in this regard points more to your guilt than your innocence, in my view.

Originally Posted by Valier

I am leaning towards Kath and more so Cailin at the moment, I still find it odd that she is no where to be seen yet today.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I agree with Spm, that (non-)Cailin is really dangerously quiet.

The possibility that Calin is a Duck concerns me greatly. If she is, then she almost deserves to win. But, as I said earlier, it is often easier for the werecreature, with the knowledge he or she has, to appear innocent than it is for the true innocents to appear as such. I speak from experience (on both "sides of the fence") on this.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Now someone said, I might be the goose here. I admit I have tried to add complexity to our choices, but not with the idea of misguiding us, but for us to see the real possibilities.

I think that you may be referring to my earlier comment. I said that your speculation that Mith may have been the Goose may have been calculated to cause confusion. By this, I meant not that you might be the Goose, but that you might well be our remaining Duck. I believe our Goose to be dead, courtesy of Ang. You describe the likelihood of you being the Duck as being small. But it is not. You were declared innocent as the result of a Night 1 dream. It remains quite possible that the Ducks tried to kill you on Night 2. In fact, you were a quite likely target for them.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Good that you took that up Kath. I was wondering, should I check, were there others with over-rounded opinions in Jenny's post. Somehow Morm didn't manage to point all the cases out, just those suiting his purposes - as happened on his first post on dAY2...

I made the point myself earlier, although perhaps not quite so forcefully:

Originally Posted by me

I am not sure that we should read too much into Jenny's post that you refer to, as she mentioned a number of people, innocents and Ducks alike, in a fairly neutral way.

Morm seems to be a serial offender when it comes to selecting excerpts from quotes to suit his arguments ...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Nogrod is buying it...well done Kath.

No I'm not. I'm just looking at the things with the Devil's eyes. I will have a reasoned opinion of my own in some time (hopefully) soon.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If Glirdan was a goose, he totally disregarded Spm's warnings about "bad goose tactics" and did exactly what Spm thought really bad...?

An interesting point you make. Yet, I wasn't saying that the "Goose tactic" I outlined would necessarily be bad. It would depend on the circumstances. I said that, if anyone claimed to be the Owl, then they should be believed as, if they were a Goose, they would swiftly be found out. But it might be worth the Goose doing this, for example in an attempt to expose the real Owl. That is not the situation which occured. But I still believe that Glirdan (the Goose) thought spawn to be innocent and that her death, together with the confusion caused, was worth his own.

If I am wrong, it means that Mith must have been the Goose. In which case, we can no longer rely on Valier's innocence. The possibility that Valier may be the last Duck is almost too dreadful to contemplate.

Originally Posted by mormegil

However their behavior pattern was consistent in the way they treated the other ducks.

No. Their behaviour pattern was consistent in the way they treated Ducks and innocents alike. I really don't see how this point counts against Kath, morm, and your persistence with it strengthens my concerns over you.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

You describe the likelihood of you being the Duck as being small. But it is not. You were declared innocent as the result of a Night 1 dream. It remains quite possible that the Ducks tried to kill you on Night 2. In fact, you were a quite likely target for them.

This is interesting.

First: I was not "declared" innocent in day1, only on day2, so I would not be more higher in their agenda as anyone else after the firtst day talk (the ducks had to base their decision on day1 "results" only).

Secondly: I have never come to think - newbie as I still seem to be - the meaning of this idea, that the shapeshifting should be a result of night2 kill-decision. They could have been told beforehand, that you can pick someone? I don't know, whether there is a precedent here, and how it would be - or would Diamond go with it / know it in the first place... That would be a piece of important information now. As if it is their first actual gamenight's (night2) kill, we should really look for the one they would have liked to kill!

[Kath]

I am not misrepresenting your words morm. I may not understand them at times due to the continued repetition that you are innocent within each and every sentence, but I'm trying.

The people against whom they spoke, with the exclusion of me, are all known innocents.

Really? Let's see.

Nilp of course spoke against no one but himself - turned out to be a Duck.

Spawn spoke against Mithalwen on Day 1, when we didn't know her to be the Owl and she was under some suspicion from various members of the village. Later turned out to be an innocent. Day 2 suspicion of Glirdan, who we now believe was the Goose. More suspicion of Mith, but that was rife at the time. Some suspicion of morm, with fair reasoning as far as I can see.

Jenny spoke against Roa on Day 1, who was an innocent. Then morm, Valier, SPM, Mith, Sleepy and Roa again. So basically half the village, it being Day 1. Even an innocent (as she may well have been at the time) could have picked 6/7 names out of a hat and ended up with every single one being innocent. Day 2, she suspected and voted for spawn - who we now know was a Duck. By this time she was definitely a Duck whether she began as one or not I know, but she still went for someone who didn't turn out to be innocent.

I won't go on, but the point is there. Those who the Duck's spoke against have not all turned out to be innocents. And if you are willing to make generalised, sweeping statements like that I would say it was you that was clutching at straws.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

... so I would not be more higher in their agenda as anyone else after the firtst day talk (the ducks had to base their decision on day1 "results" only).

You are too modest.

You may not be the best at winning friends in the village (as your signature, courtesy of Sleepy, has it) but you have a certain reputation. At least one of our proven Ducks was familiar with it. And you did not attract much serious suspicion on Day 1. I can certainly see you being seriously considered by the Ducks on Night 2.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

They could have been told beforehand, that you can pick someone?

It's possible I suppose. But I had assumed from the Diamoddeses reference to this being a secret aspect of the game that the Ducks were as much in the dark as the rest of us at the outset.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

As if it is their first actual gamenight's (night2) kill, we should really look for the one they would have liked to kill!

That's one of the reasons I'm looking at you Nogrod. But it's also possible that the remaining Duck was one of the originals (which would discount you, if Mith is to be believed). Unfortunately, I don't think that we have any way of knowing.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Kath

I won't go on, but the point is there. Those who the Duck's spoke against have not all turned out to be innocents. And if you are willing to make generalised, sweeping statements like that I would say it was you that was clutching at straws.

You gave nobody but known innocents they spoke against. When Jenny voted for Spawn it was after Glirdan's 'revelation' but never mentioned any suspicion before hand. The point I am trying to make is that the Ducks seemingly didn't mention their fellows very often if at all. Of those alive currently they mentioned most or all of us except Kath!!!! Yes that's 4 exclamation points!!!!

[Kath]

You gave nobody but known innocents they spoke against.

Ahem, no I didn't.

Day 2 suspicion of Glirdan, who we now believe was the Goose.

From spawn.

Love the exclamation points though Next you'll be telling us you're really the Owl and that both Mith and Glirdan were lying.

[mormegil]

Techincally speaking Glirdan is an innocent though not a Duck.

[The Saucepan Man]

Ahem!

Will you two stop squabbling for a moment and at least consider the possibility that you might both be innocent. This single-minded mutual persecution that you both seem intent on playing out may just hand the win to the Duck.

[Kath]

I wouldn't call him a known innocent though, not while we don't know whether he was the Goose or not.

Anyway, if I don't go to bed now my parents will ban me from the net so:

++MORM

And SPM, yes that is a possibility. But it seems obvious that morm cannot let go of suspecting me and since he is certain to vote for me I would rather vote him than someone else who right now I don't suspect as much, even if only in the hope that it tips the scales enough his way to keep me alive. Until one or the other of us is dead this vendetta won't end, and I know who I'd prefer to see alive at the end of it!

The points against Cailin have been most fair I think, but I'm hoping that I'm right in saying that she (the real she) will be back tomorrow, and I'd rather give her the benefit of the doubt until then.

[Cailín]

I got home just now, sorry to dissapoint you all I'm still the Non-Cailin. Anyway, I hope you understand this is all new for me, I'm not really the type yet that posts all the time like I know my sister does. I'll read through all the new posts now and make my vote later.

[Nogrod]

I'm just running out of time (it's 2.20AM right now). Just a few points I had time to collect, and then I'' wait shortly for any comments (I try to check something more while waiting). But then I will have to vote.

Morm is nowhere a clear duck or goose - what else would you wait from him? But there are so many slight problems, that I'm beginning to suspect him for real.

#76 A totally vague talk about him possibly changing his style, about Nilp yes or maybe not, being round about the geese talk. (Not bad this one, as alone)

#95 Odd talk as me and Kath were talking about whom the ducks would kill. Morm came to defend the idea (originally held by Kath) of the ducks wishing to kill the quiet ones (I've never been a werecreature, but I have entertained the tactics while playing these games: I would go ahead on for the "famous" or much(-and well)-analysing people, especially on the first day, when the tracks are quite non-existent). Unhappily he X-posts with Kath, who has just seen my point. So trying to use the already available confusion to mess the best of the village? I would still like to hear his elaboration (that I asked from him just afterwards), how the quiet (or at worst - people easily affected = they are not always the same people, but on many times they are) are the best kills for the ducks!

Both Jenny's and Spawn's suspicions of him were not so bad anyway - quite normal - careful even talk, that could just fit the duck-on-duck "slight suspicion, backed up a bit" definition (see for yourselves: Jenny #100, Spawn #151). So here I see Kath having more point than Morm.

#121 Nilp-vote analysis, carefully "forgetting" the class of the most suspicious (those who had suspected "enough", but not voted - incl. himself).

#226 (mine), pointing out Morm's awkward and badly presented case over Sleepy's vote (hadn't time to check the original, but there is a quote).

AND THE INTERESTING ONE:
#255 After being voted (kind of out of the blue) by Spawn (a fellow?), he goes to state, that to him, the top of suspicion are Jenny (duck) and Roa. Then he calls for the dream from Mith for Ang and Roa, and at last says, that a dream on him would be wasted... So nicely suspecting a fellow-duck, but still asking not to dream of her - and then trying to play down a dream of him...?

Sorry, that's as far as I got. I try to see some more, and wait for your comments. This is surely looked with the "Devil's advocate's" eyes, but still...

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by me

Quote:
Originally Posted by mormegil
Kath ... you find trivial matters and try and use them against others, me ususually, and do it at a time when you can add fuel to the mormegil fire.

Morm, would you mind providing some examples? This is not something that has been apparent to me.

Morm. I am still waiting for a response on this ...

Originally Posted by Nogrod

AND THE INTERESTING ONE:
#255 After being voted (kind of out of the blue) by Spawn (a fellow?), he goes to state, that to him, the top of suspicion are Jenny (duck) and Roa. Then he calls for the dream from Mith for Ang and Roa, and at last says, that a dream on him would be wasted... So nicely suspecting a fellow-duck, but still asking not to dream of her - and then trying to play down a dream of him...?

A fair point. If you suspected Jenny, morm, why did you not suggest that Mith dream of her?

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by NOGROD

I agree with Spm, that (non-)Cailin is really dangerously quiet. I can't say anything bad of her, except to the fact, that now the posting has somewhat ceased after the change of the roles. She told us something about her brother being the more intelligent and polite (or something), but she kind of didn't note us on these one-message policies. ANd what to say about this substitution-stuff anyway? A well-meaning villager who wants to not fail us others as she has RL things going on, or the duck who wants to take adventage of her RL fortunes?

I reckon it's only polite to look for a replacement when suddenly something comes up, instead of leaving a game where already two had left. I wouldn't base my suspicions on that.

Well, the points made by Nogrod about Mith not being the Owl, I still think she had a more convincing case then Glirdan. It just made it all a bit more confusing for me .. which might have been your intention?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Cailín

I reckon it's only polite to look for a replacement when suddenly something comes up, instead of leaving a game where already two had left. I wouldn't base my suspicions on that.
----------------------------------------
Well, the points made by Nogrod about Mith not being the Owl, I still think she had a more convincing case then Glirdan. It just made it all a bit more confusing for me .. which might have been your intention?

To the first one: yes, I totally agree with that. I only raised the question, whether there are other possibilities... We all can be looked from several different angles, and just have to see, which is the most believable one...

And to the second: Yes, it was my intention to make someone confused, who thought this was all wrapped and ready. With that kind of an effort, we stand very small chance to any intelligent duck here, as we have only two chances to get it right...

And btw., as I went throught the first days, there is something funny in the actions of Cailin (so not the non-Cailin... ) From the very beginning she quite firmly stands beside Morm. Then on the second day she kind of turns around, and suspects him quite a lot - but then again in #313 Morm is not at all suspicious! Our hawk was suspicious of her in #347. Just if anyone has time, please check this!