Tol-in-Gaurhoth XX: Wereorc I: The elves cannot hide themselves much longer.

[Grendelien]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Grendelien seems intelligent, a bit too intelligent to be a total newbie (just like had been pm'd about the stuff all night?)

Hahah, ouch, Nogrod. I know my posts before weren't substantial, but I assure you my list of obvious possibilities was my own. I was thinking about your dream all last night, trying to come up with as many possibilities as possible (where is the thesaurus?). I omitted the ones supporting the possibilty of your innocence, simply because, if you are innocent, I believe you have a hidden agenda, which I don't think should be disclosed at this time. However, I cannot be sure of your innocence, simply because I have two contrasting thoughts about you eating at my brain. For the purpose of narrowing suspects, I'm going to move onto the other villagers for now, unless I find substantial evidence supporting your innocence of verifying your guilt.

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

The ranger isn't able to protect the same person two nights in a row though. So if the orcs thought Spawn was the shaman they should know she'd be unprotected the next night.

D'oh. That was my quote and it was a typo. Could = couldn't. Which makes more sense in the context I was using, I hope. I have a bad habit of leaving off contractions.

Anyway, I have very little time as I am late for work (the story of my life, yes, I know) but I just wanted to say, I love you Sleepy. And if that looks suspicious, I don't care.

[Sleepy Ranger]

As for Zali being the shaman and just pretending to be the ranger I recall Fea trying something like that and it ended badly.

No, it was WWJ I and the villagers won that. The irony of it all was that the ranger was pretending to be the seer and the seer was pretending to be the ranger.

but I just wanted to say, I love you Sleepy.

Ssssshhh! Don't let Ka hear you...
Anyway since I'm off for the day I'll leave my vote;

Grenden seems to be too good to be true at the moment so I'll leave it at that. I've gone through things and decided voting for Naria could be folly or it could actually be the right way down, as for Kitanna, good to have her back but I still can't shake off that dis-trust for her.

I hope I'm not making any mistakes, I'm trusting you on this one JennyHallu, please don't be pushing me the wrong way!

++Naria

EDIT: Just decided to add, "I love you too, Diamond you cute little duck!"

[Naria]

I hope I'm not making any mistakes, I'm trusting you on this one JennyHallu, please don't be pushing me the wrong way!

Well Sleepy, just like everyone has been saying Jenny is a smart little weasel!! She is definitely "pushing" you in the wrong direction. Why on earth you would want to believe a werecreature is beyond me! If you are an ordo then you have definitely made a mistake, if you are an orc than it makes perfect sense why you would trust her and vote for me. However, I do believe that Nogrod has dreamt of you and found you to be innocent .

Once again, though. Nogrod could have dreamt of Sleepy and is just saying that he is an ordo when in fact he could be an orc. Remember the one with the dream can do with the dreamt information as they wish. It would be a very clever plan indeed. Nogrod says, "hey Sleepy is an ordo" when he could be Nogrod's sidekick, meanwhile making himself and Sleepy look like innocents...hmmm. I wouldn't put it past either one of these two to come up with such a dubious plan. However, just food for thought and I will leave this topic for now.

I am going to re-read over everyone's posts and will be back with my findings. It may take me awhile, but I will get it posted.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Naria

Once again, though. Nogrod could have dreamt of Sleepy and is just saying that he is an ordo when in fact he could be an orc. Remember the one with the dream can do with the dreamt information as they wish. It would be a very clever plan indeed. Nogrod says, "hey Sleepy is an ordo" when he could be Nogrod's sidekick, meanwhile making himself and Sleepy look like innocents...hmmm.

Well. I don't like to be this kind of an old grumpy to whine on everything, but just look at what I have said at my first post:

= Nogrod #2
My basic instinct would say, we just come forwards with them, one by one, as we have them. The orcs possibly won't get very far with lying about them (one "found out" -lie - when the dream goes to an orc that tries to save a fellow - would get another orc lynched immediately?)

And I have tried to make that point all along: the dreamers are not proven innocents, they are vessels to carry the dreams - and given to the wrong hands, they might be deceitful - but not long-lasting ones.

I have not claimed innocence by revealing my dream. I do trust your judgement on that - as Zali will have to trust our judgement over her. We might have reasons against her or then not - and the same goes with me.

I am not so stupid, as to try this kind of gamble, were I an orc. Please. I guess the orc having a dream, should just stay quiet - that would gain some confusion, sooner or later... and would not give the villagers the edge of one votee as the day closes.

But you believe, what you want to believe. I didn't reveal my dream to save my butt - with this I agree with Celuien: better that I go than a gifted going. I revealed it, because it will make the night more confusing for the orcs ("whom to go after?"), and because Sleepy was getting suspected, and I knew he was innocent. Let's not lynch innocents, if we can avoid it. It will be just a couple of days onwards, when the question of pure mass (the ratio between the innocents vs. the orcs) comes forwards and will start to dictate all the things done here...

This to begin with. I'll come back soon with some thoughts about Caran, Find & Grend...

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by Sleepy

Grenden seems to be too good to be true at the moment

I have to stick my nose in here and say that I came under suspicion for exactly the same reason in the last WW game... and I was innocent, just doing a darned good job on my own

For now I'm willing to put aside my suspicions of Zali. Right now I'm feeling most suspicious of Nogrod and Kitanna. Typical loud wolf/quiet wolf there (with orcs instead of wolves, of course). And I can't shake my feeling about Roa (I know, I know, I have Analysis Disease, and I can't trust anyone after I've analyzed them). If only I had time to look deeper at the suspects, but, suspicious as it may seem, if I want to eat today I have to run over before class, and I shan't be back until an hour or two before the Day ends.

[Grendelien]

I was planning on analyzing other villagers’ posts, but Nogrod’s recent suspicion of me came as a surprise. I was thinking for some time about why he would outwardly suspect me, and I came up with two reasons:

1)Nogrod is an ordo, truthfully revealed the dream he received about Sleepy, and sincerely believes that I am an orc.
2)Nogrod is an orc, truthfully revealed the dream about Sleepy, and believes me to be the Shaman or Ranger. Now, suppose I were lynched and you all found out that I am innocent, Nogrod would appear suspicious. However, he is smart, so why would he put himself in such a suspicious position? I was thinking about this, and it occurred to me that Nogrod knows that we think him smart, so he knows that we would think “why would Nogrod put himself in that position if he were an orc? That’s not smart.” The villagers may think him unlikely of doing such a thing, and he would therefore look less suspicious in the villagers’ eyes.
Then I thought about why Nogrod would use the early post of an innocent villager (Spawn) as backup to accuse me of being an orc. At that point, all posted suspicions had little bases to support the suspicions. Once again, I believe that since Nogrod knows we think he is smart, upon finding out I was innocent the villagers would not bind him to this reason for accusing me because they might find it too weak a reason for an orc to use, thus finding Nogrod to be innocent.

Right now Nogrod seems the most suspicious to me. It is possible that he is an ordo, but my suspicions tell me he could very well be an orc. I realize that this defensive post on my part, and offense against Nogrod appears suspicious, especially if Nogrod does turn out to be innocent. However, I currently believe him to be an orc. I will not vote until later, just in case anything comes up that reveals Nogrod's identity.

[Celuien]

I don't want to vote so early and after having been so relatively quiet today (RL got busy today), but I'm going to have to due to that rehearsal I was talking about lasting until about an hour after the day ends.

++ KITANNA

I'm willing to trust Diamond on this for today, as my suspect has gone up in smoke.


I'm not sure why Sleepy felt compelled to announce that he thinks I'm the Shaman. It's strange, and but for the dream announcing his innocence, I'd have added it to evidence for his being an Orc. I hope that plan of his is working out the way it's supposed to if he's innocent. (Actually, I can think of one reason for innocent-Sleepy to do it, but if he genuinely thinks I'm the Shaman, it doesn't work.)

Ugh. I case I don't survive the night, here's where I was going with Sleepy/Nogrod:

1) Nogrod as an Orc who did receive the dream about Sleepy.
1a) Sleepy is also an Orc and Nogrod used the dream (knowing it would be confirmed as a dream) to show his colleague's 'innocence.' They then planned to out the Shaman the next day with the confirmed innocent of the pair.
1b) Nogrod is an Orc using the dream of an innocent Sleepy as cover. This argument has already been made.

For the options under section 1, I actually think 1a would be the more likely. I'm still a bit perturbed over the 'Celuien is the Shaman' stuff.

2) Nogrod and Sleepy are both innocent.

For the record: This the the theory I currently accept, just because I've been inclined (even without dream evidence) to trust him from the beginning because his behavior has felt innocent to me. But, it's entirely possible that I'm wrong, so, if I'm dead tomorrow, because 1a is plausible, please look in to it for me.

See you in the morning, I hope.

[Roa_Aoife]

OKay, I'm back in, and I looked at Jenny's posts after the dream reveal to see who she didn't mention. They are:

Legolas in spandex
Kitanna
Celuien
Caranlondien

I already analyzed Caran and Celuien, and they both looked fairly innocent. Or rather, there was nothing that jumped out at me from them. LiS... I sincerly doubt has any special role in this game. That would leave Kitanna. Of course this alone isn't enough to cause great suspicion. I'm going to go back and analyze her to see what I find.

Also, since I was looking for Jenny's posts after the reveal, I found this:

Originally Posted by Zali

I've been going back and forth about this ever since I got in yesterday night. And subtlety was foiled: Jenny plays too well.

This confused me because I didn't remember her mentioning Jenny before. I went back, and I found only one mention- she disagreed with something Jenny said about Diamond. Not really going "back and forth" about anything. Zali, could you clarify what you meant?

EDIT: Cross posted with Celuien

[Roa_Aoife]

It's almost closing time, so here's the vote count:

Kitanna 2
Naria 1

Have we heard from everyone today?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

It's almost closing time, so here's the vote count:

Kitanna 2
Naria 1

Have we heard from everyone today?

2½ hours to go - as we have one more hour by Farael, as the starting was delayed...

But good question. Legolas iS I think I haven't seen, but others missing?

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Interesting that the orcs would kill her over Zali. Why not go for the gifted rather than the known innocent?

What a twist. The two orcs remaining are either brilliant or very, very silly.

Sure, I'm not a direct threat, but I am in the way.

Wow. I'm sorry for showing up late, all. I thought I was a done deal, and just came on idly wondering what my death scene looked like.

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

This confused me because I didn't remember her mentioning Jenny before. I went back, and I found only one mention- she disagreed with something Jenny said about Diamond. Not really going "back and forth" about anything. Zali, could you clarify what you meant?

I was not clear there, and I apologize. I meant that I'd been going back and forth in my mind as in "Do I say anything? Or is it too much of a risk to my role as Ranger?"

Either way, I think I'm pretty much dead toNight.

I'm going back to review the thread now.

[Roa_Aoife]

Kitanna
Day 1
1st post - suggests waiting until a true innocent is about be lynched before revealing dreams, points out that wereorcs would be able to twist dreams in their favor with out having to lie, fears the shaman could get found out this way.
2nd - Isn't suspicious of anyone in particular, summarizes day so far
3rd - brief analysis of those voted for- Roa is slightly suspicious, Diamond is acting oddly, no opinion on Glirdan or Jenny, annoyed with Sleepy. Votes Sleepy.

Day 2
1st post - Doesn't think Spawn's suspicion of Roa was bad, but doesn't think Roa is a threat right now, worried about gut feelings, concerned about Diamond's statement of being unhelpful, finds Zali suspicious, agrees with Celuien about orcs paring with innocents, Votes Diamond, says she's not overly suspicious of Diamond, but her unhelpful post has made her worry.

Day 3
1st post - Says she's been ill, says aggressiveness is not a good reason for lynching someone, discusses the causes of Spawn's death, points out that Findeasea was the only one mention on both Day 1 & 2 in a suspicious manner, also nervous by Findeasea's talk about her own werecreature behavior, thinks that Jenny mentioned at least one teammate, doesn't believe Zali is an orc, thinks it's most likely that one orc is male, suspicious of Nogrod, discourages talking about who might be a gifted.
No Vote yet

Analysis coming. (I'm going back to my usual way of doing things.)

[Roa_Aoife]

Kitanna seems to be behaving in a very careful manner. She walks a steady middle ground on all debates (except the dream one, which was Nogrod vs. the village, as per usual). She makes lots of definite statements about a lot of people, which isn't really being definite at all. This could just be an innocent villager with no clear idea of who to suspect, or it could be a quiet orc trying to stay out of sight. On the whole, I wish she would post more so we could get a better picture of where she stands.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Legolas iS I think I haven't seen, but others missing?

A quick check shows that LiS is the only one missing now.

[Nogrod]

”The case Grendelien” – read as a Devil’s advocate...

I thought long before I posted this. I see the mood has changed, and what I started as a quite harmless occupation of looking at certain people who have avoided any thorough analysis or negative interpretations, seems to me now quite doubtful. But after all, it's just a game.

So Grendelien & others, read carefully! This is not an open accusation, but the thing I have gotten as I have analyzed your posts with the eye of you being an orc! That is not to say you are one.

I'm sure, that a similar story could be wrought out of almost anyone...

#24
if the dreamer tells us the dream, s/he will most likely be killed if the dream is incriminating

Trying to distract us? The dreamer is not the first to be killed...

#83
Ah, I've been beating my brains over this this choice for some time..this is a very difficult decision to make. It is true that Diamond18's posts lack significant substance, which is suspicious, but the detailed analyses of each elf (or orc) by certain players, such as Celuien and Norgrod could be a diversion. It's really hard to say. My suspicions of everyone are high at this point. However, I will have to cast my vote for

++Glirdan

This is funny: managing to cast suspicion on three vocal villagers, and then giving a vote for a fourth innocent...

#139 is so carefully crafted! Throwing accusations on Caranlodien, binding them to the innocence of Spawn – which the orc would know beforehand –and withdraws herself by saying she just goes by her paranoia!

Though I was suspicious (I need to find a synonym for this word) early on, at this point, I can find little evidence, other than my normal paranoia, that Caranlondien is a wereorc. Her posts seem reasonable (gah, more paranoia rising to the surface) and unhasty. If we later discover that Spawn is innocent, this may be some ilk of indication that she is a wereorc...but at this point, everyone is making claims, so I cannot find evidence to prove her guilty.

Then she “worries” about Celuien and Nogrod, toned down by:

This is no reason to believe right off that Nogrod or Celuien are definitely wolves, or are definitely innocent.

If orc-stuff, very well crafted!

Then comes this quite interesting posting sequence: #190 & #193

At #190 she seems to be an expert on were-gaming, outlining the possible ways the orcs would think and act, basically seeing lots of defensiveness as a sign of orcsery. Then on #193 she goes on saying, she would have voted for Spawn or Nogrod (not the two I might think of having foremostly been on the defence!)

, but that Zali’s announcement would regard her some analysis over Jenny’s posts and other analysis over her.

So is she trying to divert us? Hoping the others would also think, that there is some analyzing to do? About half an hour before the deadline, when everything hanged on the balance of action?

After my post:

I don't think you need to. Jenny has been dreamed of, and I trust it, because it would be fool's work to be an orc-Zali and to lie about the one dreamt of. We should find the lie out immediately after Jenny's death, and would kill Zali the next day...

She very quickly retreated and started to play a villager... Even trying to make things nice and right in her post #203

You're right, Nogrod, Azaelia, and Sleepy, I don't know what I was thinking...if Jenny's innocent, then we know Azaelia was lying...but I trust Azaelia's truthful!

& #209...

Then there was this quite an odd exhange of posts between Grendelien and Diamond (posts #260-263). I must admit, I didn’t quite get the point.

#267 Analysis of possibilities between me and Sleepy as I had revealed my dream.

But why this haste to speculate my orcness? I don’t think it bad to raise the question, but why to go then from my post, stating:

Nogrod#278
Grendelien seems intelligent, a bit too intelligent to be a total newbie (just like had been pm'd about the stuff all night?) Also see Spawn's analysis on her! See for yourselves! This is just a "look and see" -warning. I don't know what to make of her. Looks very good - and thence very bad...

To this:

#287
I was planning on analyzing other villagers’ posts, but Nogrod’s recent suspicion of me came as a surprise.
... LOTS OF SPECULATION OF POSSIBLE ORCNESS IN HERE ...
Right now Nogrod seems the most suspicious to me. It is possible that he is an ordo, but my suspicions tell me he could very well be an orc.

Jumping around a bit – but still staying calm enough to make the save at the end (“it is possible...”)?

I don’t know, what to say about this. If there is a bandwagon tonight, you others will see, how it was started. Caran helped a lot in that. I try to hang on long enough to make some sort of analysis over her too, but let’s see.

I would hate to see Grendelien as an wereorc, and my guts tell me she isn't one. But I hope you others (Grendelien included!) help me with this. Mainly I would like to hear some points concerning the stuff I have bolded. Remember: only two people are orcs, others are goodies. Let's be careful, about the reasons we trust and join the lynch today...

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But if you think that through, you will see more miracles: if Zali is a wolf, she could have mentioned Spawn just as a point to be affirmed the next night (maybe the real "save" was not Spawn? The ranger would not disagree about that openly - although the wolves might like her/him to do it). Her innocence quaranteed this way? But then there is the question, why didn't she protect her last night?

I did not protect Spawn last night because I couldn't. By Farael's rules, I am not allowed to protect a player more than one night in a row.

This was not a Wolfish plot. I am really the ranger. Why would I draw suspicion to myself by placing Spawn and Spawn only alongside me on my "innocent" list?

I am by no means clever enough to pull off a gifted impersonation. Hey, I can't even manage being a gifted without opening my big mouth and letting the secret fall out.

Wait...! I just though of something! Could it be possible that Zali is in fact *not* the Ranger but the Shaman? Think about it, she came out as ranger to keep her shamaness self hidden. And she probably thought it may work to confuse the orcs.

Now why would I do a thing like that? Coming out as any kind of a gifted is like tattooing "ORC BAIT" across your forehead in huge orange letters. Shaman? Ranger? both are a danger to the orcs. The Shaman is, admittedly, a greater danger. As ranger, all I can do is get in the way. However, any gifted impersonation is very risky and usually backfires.

Celuien, I think I'm probably next on the Orcs' kill list, rather than you... I am a self-admitted ranger, and only someone else suggested that you were the shaman. The village knows something definite about my role in the game. They have no such fodder on you. I'm guessing Spawn died as the result of my foolishness yesterday in an attempt to provide the rest of you with at least a known innocent come morning.

So my apologies, Spawn. I'm sorry I got you killed. I was honestly expecting to die instead...

Originally Posted by kitanna

I'm sure Zali will speak for herself on this, but perhaps she thought if we knew her role she'd have more credibility when it came to the dream.

Actually, I didn't think it would lend my dream anything. By that time, Jenny was already pretty much lynched, thanks to help from the handful of villagers who had not yet voted. I was frustrated at not having been able to be a bit more subtle about my dream and frustrated that I would not be able to save myself if it should come to that. I was annoyed because I saw the dream as an end of the road, as far as my ranger skillz went. I was sick and not thinking the clearest. And so my sense of melodrama took the spotlight. Hence the comment about the pain of irony.

[Nogrod]

And all of you: remember the thought behind Devil's advocacy! We should try a thought (here, a person) as hard as we can, and if we can't find a problem, we think her/him good! So this is also one way of building trust among each other.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Azaelia of Willowbottom

As ranger, all I can do is get in the way.

But even if I agree with you about the probability of you being the next on the list of the orcs, please think carefully, who to cover the next night. You'll have all the chances to become a double hero - one we will remember for a long time!

[Roa_Aoife]

Celuien, I think I'm probably next on the Orcs' kill list, rather than you... I am a self-admitted ranger, and only someone else suggested that you were the shaman.

Be careful what you say, Zali, if you really are the ranger. The orcs may figure out who you're going to protect and kill someone else. Please avoid statements like this, you'll only hinder the village.

Edit: Cross posted with Nogrod

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But even if I agree with you about the probability of you being the next on the list of the orcs, please think carefully, who to cover the next night. You'll have all the chances to become a double hero - one we will remember for a long time!

No worries, Nogrod. My brain is (slowly) ticking.

And as for my thoughts on who is innocent, Roa...I'm keeping my big mouth shut this time. *breaks out the duct tape*

[Roa_Aoife]

35 minutes to the deadline and only three people have voted. Where is everyone?

I'm getting my vote in now. Kitanna has been mentioned over and over by people, but never really manages to get a lot of suspicion. She's one of our quietest villagers, she doesn't seem to be following her usual pattern, she was specifically not mentioned by Jenny. The little things are really starting to add up on her, so

++ Kitanna

I don't think I was wrong yesterday; I don't think I'm wrong now.

[Findëasëa]

35 minutes to the deadline and only three people have voted. Where is everyone?

The voting is extended an hour toDay to compensate for the late start.

[Nogrod]

NO ROA!

I tried to say this once before!

1½ hours left now!

Normally 11pm GMT, today 12, check Farael's beginning post for today!

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Nogrodd

1½ hours left now!

Oh no! I missed that completely! Oh well, it doesn't matter much, since I'm holding to my suspicion of Kitanna. Unless something of great significance happens in the next 45 minutes (because that's when I have to go anyways), I doubt I'll change my opinion.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

I am very short on time (though I do understand that there is an extension). But I'm going out with my family now, and don't know when I'll be back. So I have to vote now.

About the only believeable thing I could take from Jenny's posts is that the orcs are "sneaky sneaky"...The rest was obviously meant as a confusion. I am not nearly as suspicious of Naria as I am of others, though I agree that at least one of the people Jenny named is an Orc.

Looking back for behavior that could be sneaky, like several other people, my mind floated to Kitanna. Like Jenny, she plays well, and appears both helpful and clever.

I think there's such a thing as too helpful and too smart for your own good, though...and hers may be that case. After seeing the reasonable, ordinary-seeming Jenny become an orc, I'd rather err on the side of caution than allow an orc to sneak off.

So I am going to vote for

++Kitanna

today.

Here's hoping all turns out well.

Cheers!

[Grendelien]

Don't we have 1 hour and 10 minutes left?

[Grendelien]

Sorry, I didn't refresh the page quickly enough!

[Roa_Aoife]

Well, Gren, if you're here, have anything to add?

[Farael]

... who is the prettiest of them all?"

"What do I know? I'm a clock not a mirror. You know? tick-tack-tick-tack.... I told you, I'm a talking clock but you wouldn't listen. What do you want a talking clock if you don't listen to it, anyway? what you want if a talking mirror, geez....."

"Well, then what can you tell me?"

"I can tell you that there is still about an hour left for discussion and voting before the end of the day."

[Kitanna]

Short on time, I don't really have much to add from what I said earlier.
I see I've gathered plenty of suspicions. I know I'm innocent, but I also know no one is going to believe that until I hang from the noose or I'm mauled in my sleep.

I have suspicions of Findëasëa and Nogrod mostly. Of course seeing as very little time is left and to put in a vote for either of them would seem like a safe/ waste of a vote I'll help the village with its doubts.

++Kitanna

[Roa_Aoife]

Ugh, self-voters. I swear, there's one in every village. Kitanna, if you're innocent, then lynching yourself doesn't help us. There are still plenty of people left to vote, so it's not as though you're a defintie lynch. Offer a defense, come up with a reason why someone else ought to be suspected, just don't give up like that! If anything, this just makes you look like an orc trying to bluff her way out of dying. Well, I'm not falling for it.

[Grendelien]

[QUOTE=Nogrod]I don’t know, what to say about this. If there is a bandwagon tonight, you others will see, how it was started. Caran helped a lot in that. I try to hang on long enough to make some sort of analysis over her too, but let’s see.

I would hate to see Grendelien as an wereorc, and my guts tell me she isn't one. But I hope you others (Grendelien included!) help me with this.QUOTE]

Nogrod and the rest of the villagers, please understand me and take me as sincere when I say that I certainly would not want to start a bandwagon to lynch Nogrod, because a lot of consequences follow, and I certainly would not want to take responsibility for anything so drastic, especially if Nogrod is innocent. Even though I raised, rather boldly for my liking, what Nogrod's possible plans could be, and even though I may still vote for Nogrod at some point because mysuspicions are not put to rest, I would not want people to vote for you solely on the reasons I proposed. It would not be wise, because there is the possibility that I'm an orc too, (although I maintain my innocence). I don't think a majority vote for you is going to occur anytime soon because I'm sure people suspect me.
I am not going to ignore the chance [1) on my annoying list of possibilities)] that Nogrod is innocent. If you are innocent, and you have a plan in mind, you should probably not disclose it. And if you do have a plan as an innocent villager, I hope it is fulfilled. It would be awful, and I would feel awful, if you are not an orc and are lynched, because, assuming you're innocent, you are/would be a great asset to the village. I too would hate to see you as a wereorc, but the possibility remains, so I do not plan on taking you off my suspicions list anytime soon.
This post gives people another reason to suspect me for thinking I am backing off (for the possibility of Nogrod's innocence is very probable), but I'm not backing off as far as thinking Nogrod could be a severe threat. I hope, Nogrod and fellow villagers, that this explanation will suffice for the time being.

[Nogrod]

”The case Caranlodien” – With Devil’s advocate view -light version (too tired to get intensive...)

Basically she seems to be one of the most careful and thoughtful members of the village – and her analysis seem to be very good indeed! As I do not know, what you others have thought, while you have posted, I can just rely on her analysis on me #163. She seemed to get the point I was stating easily (as some others have kind of twisted them, or not understood, what I have meant).

But then there is this curious aspect on her action too. She seems to be very eager to point out interesting (#131) or good (#133) points I have made, and then she makes this total mis-statement:

#152
Nogrod makes good points, but he also makes me uneasy. Are you suggesting that without well-founded suspicions to go on, we should lynch the quiet people? I can see some of the appeal. It's true, what you said, that quiet people get more and more dangerous as the game goes on. But that's also the sort of plan a bunch of loud orcs would want.

That reasoning is clearly flawed, and I wouldn’t think a person of her intelligence would do that (I guess at least Celuien - and partly Roa have pointed this also later).

The fun starts, when she analyses my posts (#163). The analysis is good – as I have said - but then she goes on to say, that she will keep an eye on me. Making an add-on to inform us, that my post done while she was analyzing my earlier posts “addressed her concerns”, and that she was less suspicious of me because of that.

In #173 She comes up with the idea, that me and Celuien are at odds concerning the quiet-ones – which clearly is not the case. Why did she make such a lie? Still, she continues, that I have made good points on my behalf.

Then comes the jackpot:

#184
I have to go soon, and must decide how to vote. It's difficult, because one can interpret a single action in so many ways - Nogrod seems reasonable, and not set in a single way of thinking. Or, perhaps he's eager to please, and doesn't want to ruffle anyone's feathers. My analysis of Roa didn't yield much, and I'm not ready to sacrifice someone who, if she is innocent, is surely an asset to the village.

Decisions... I'll go re-read a little and then cast my vote.

And it took whole ten minutes to vote for me... I must say, I’m astonished! She has been careful enought to announce my good points and arguments, and then she just votes for me, almost out of the blue! And even as I do agree with myself being not set to just one way of thinking, I just can't see, how you could interpret me as "eager to please"!

And she has been continuing the same way today also. In #276, she says:

However, I do believe that Sleepy is innocent. If an orcish Nogrod had lied about an orcish Sleepy, in a few days time we'd all be wondering why Sleepy wasn't dead yet. And once we knew one of them was an orc, we'd have a nice little trail to follow to the other. I don't think Nogrod would be so foolish.

But just then on #286, she goes:

Right now I'm feeling most suspicious of Nogrod and Kitanna. Typical loud wolf/quiet wolf there (with orcs instead of wolves, of course).

So playing thoughtfully, and not suspiciously. But then somehow managing to twist her vote / open suspicions at the right moments to go on just the other way, she has been talking all the time?

I don’t know, what to say about this. Has she blind spots? Is she deliberately trying to seem like a thoughtful villager, but under that cover, trying to influence the other villagers to lynch a loud-villager (if she is an orc, she knows, I’m innocent)? At least today, her timing would be excellent...

But as with Grendelien, I have to say, that I would hate her to be an orc. Would be a good asset to us, if “proven” innocent. So come and defend yourself – and all you others, have your say. I would like to hear good reasons for your actions and to come to believe your innocence! (This goes to Grendelien also – if I haven’t spelled that out already, clearly enough)

[Roa_Aoife]

And she has been continuing the same way today also. In #276, she says:
Quote:
However, I do believe that Sleepy is innocent. If an orcish Nogrod had lied about an orcish Sleepy, in a few days time we'd all be wondering why Sleepy wasn't dead yet. And once we knew one of them was an orc, we'd have a nice little trail to follow to the other. I don't think Nogrod would be so foolish.

But just then on #286, she goes:
Quote:
Right now I'm feeling most suspicious of Nogrod and Kitanna. Typical loud wolf/quiet wolf there (with orcs instead of wolves, of course).

So playing thoughtfully, and not suspiciously. But then somehow managing to twist her vote / open suspicions at the right moments to go on just the other way, she has been talking all the time?

I can see most of your case, but this bit I think I would view differently. The general consensus has been that even if you're an orc, you wouldn't be lying about Sleepy's innocense. So then all that she's saying is that the dream was most likely true, but you are in no means off the hook.

[Nogrod]

I cross-posted with many.

Just two comments, then I have to see the posts better and think of my vote.

Kitanna: Roa is right, this won't help us as a village - and as a bluff it's very bad. Shame on you...

Grendelien: As I said, I'm inclined to believe your innocence, and am more so now (even there seems to be no real reason for it). I hope we both are alive tomorrow - and there is one orc less to deal with. But we should try each other, to see, whether we can trust. That's what the villagers need - the orcs know the situation, we must build the bridges without PM's or outside knowledge...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

I can see most of your case, but this bit I think I would view differently. The general consensus has been that even if you're an orc, you wouldn't be lying about Sleepy's innocense. So then all that she's saying is that the dream was most likely true, but you are in no means off the hook.

I have never boasted being off the hook... I even said, that I haven't thought of saving my butt with the revelation. I think you all remember the first day, and what I thought about people should do having a dream? It is plain, that we dreamers are just "the vessels" (I'm starting to hate this idiom...).

[Roa_Aoife]

I have never boasted being off the hook... I even said, that I haven't thought of saving my butt with the revelation.

I never said you did. I'm just saying that you're making a contradiction when there isn't one to be made.

[Roa_Aoife]

New Vote count

Kitanna 5
Naria 1

Now where is everyone?

[Nogrod]

I'll try to make a tally for us.

This looks very weird indeed...