Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow.

[Caranlondien]

Well, TGWBS is perplexing, that's for sure.

I just don't know what to think. Of course his request that we double-lynch is kind of awkward. I mean, if we suspect him enough to lynch him, should we really take advice from him? If he's innocent, it's easy for him to say, "Yeah, lynch me, but lynch another person, too"... Because (if he's innocent) he knows he's innocent, so he doesn't have to worry about whether he's following the instructions of a wolf! Which is what I'm worried about right now.

[littlemanpoet]

The paranthesis following the vote getter indicates whether the voter was 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or later to vote for the vote getter on that Day.


Player . . . . . . . . Day 1 . . . . . . . . Day 2 . . . . . . . . Day 3 . . . . . . . accuracy

tar-ancalime . . . Farael (1) . . . . . Eomer (2) . . . . . Kath (3) . . . . . . 2 of 3
Caranlondien . . Anguirel (2) . . . . Lhuna (4) . . . . . Lhuna (6) . . . . . 2 of 3
Thinlómien. . . . . Glirdan (2) . . . . Naria (2) . . . . . . Lhuna (1) . . . . . 1? of 3

Samwise . . . . . Garin (5)* . . . . . Lhuna (2) . . . . . .Lhuna (4) . . . . . 2 of 3
Valier . . . . . . . . . Glirdan (1) . . . . .Eonwe (5) . . . . . Kath (6) . . . . . . 1? of 3
Lalaith . . . . . . . . .Guy (2) . . . . . . .Eonwe (1) . . . . . Lhuna (3) . . . . . 1 of 3/ 2 of 3

Glirdan . . . . . . . Garin (4) . . . . . . Naria (1) . . . . . . Kath (4) . . . . . . .1? of 3
Naria . . . . . . . . .Guy (3) . . . . . . . . Eonwe (6) . . . . Kath (7) . . . . . . 1 of 3/2 of 3
Celuien . . . . . . . Garin (3) . . . . . . Samwise (1) . . . . Kath (2) . . . . . .1? of 3

Formendacil . . . .Guy (4) . . . . . . . Kath (2) . . . . . . . .Kath (1) . . . . . . 2 of 3/3 of 3
Guy . . . . . . . . . . .Guy (1)§. . . . . Eomer (1) . . . . . . Farael (1)ª . . . 1 of 3/2 of 3§
Gurthang . . . . . . LMP (2) . . . . . . didn't vote . . . . . .Lhuna (8)± . . . 1 of 2

Cailín . . . . . . . . . Lalaith (1) . . . . .Eonwe (2) . . . . . . didn't vote ± . . . 0 of 2
LMP . . . . . . . . . . Eomer (2) . . . . . Lhuna (3) . . . . . . Lhuna (7) . . . . . 2 of 3

* indicates that Samwise broke a double lynch tie.
ª indicates that Guy voted for the ordo-Lover instead of for a werewolf.
§ indicates that Guy voted for himself.
± indicates that this helped ensure the double lynch of two werewolves and the death of the ordo Lover.

If you like I conclude that Guy is a werewolf, then Formy and Naria look even better (and Guy worse).

Naria improves even more in that she aided in the endeavor to double lynch the two werewolves and the ordo Lover.

Gurthang and Cailíin look pretty good for the same reason.

tar-ancalime, Caranlondien, Samwise (and Elempí for that matter) look reasonably innocent.

Guy looks real bad.


The ones that this chart leaves in doubt are Thinlomien, Valier, Glirdan, and Celuien.

EDIT: sorry for the line-wrap; did the best I could with this format

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by Elempi

If you like I conclude that Guy is a werewolf...

Guy looks real bad.

Thanks for the deep and meaningful logic.

Originally Posted by Caran

If he's innocent, it's easy for him to say, "Yeah, lynch me, but lynch another person, too"... Because (if he's innocent) he knows he's innocent, so he doesn't have to worry about whether he's following the instructions of a wolf! Which is what I'm worried about right now.

You've lost me. I'm innocent, and I want at least one potential wolf to go down with me if I must.

Statistics dictate that two lynchings are better than one. Whether I am a wolf, an innocent or a psychotic bunny, this will not change.

[Lalaith]

I can get online early tomorrow and vote towards the end of the day. Don't know if that will help, mind you.
I'm getting confused about Guy again. I started today fairly sure I was going to vote for him but now I don't know.

[Caranlondien]

Sorry, my blabbering in my last post was confusing. What I mean is that if, say, I were the one under a lot of suspicion right now, I would know myself to be innocent, but I would understand if people waited until I was dead to follow my advice (since they wouldn't know I was innocent until then).

As for statistics, I'm sick of hearing about them. Believe me, I'm a scientific person, and I'm all in favor of math. But here our often-flawed reasoning is at work, too. Statistics say that if we randomly lynch two people everyday, our chances of hitting a werewolf increase. But I'd hardly call this a random sampling, since you're the one, TGWBS who picked out Naria to be lynched.

EDIT: Typo, and cross-posted with Lalaith

[Gurthang]

I'm terribly sorry, I don't have a lot of time. Hopefully, before the end of the day, I'll have time to read through and see what's going on. I'll be looking especially at Glirdan. My main three suspects are dead, and I hadn't really looked at anyone else, but I seem to remember Eomer talking about Glirdan. I'll have to see, thought.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

Statistics dictate that two lynchings are better than one. Whether I am a wolf, an innocent or a psychotic bunny, this will not change.

They do?

Most double-lynchings I've seen have been two ordos. Occassionally you'll get a Wolf as well. Yesterday's doublelynch, while extremely fortuitious for us, was a first, I'm sure, in Tol-in-Gaurhoth history. However, catching two Werewolves means that the number of Werewolves in the village has been halved, while the overall numbers of the village are still over half the original number- meaning that the chances of catching a Werewolf, based on simple stats, have gone DOWN since yesterday.

Which does not mean that a Double-lynch could not catch us a Werewolf- it just means that I refute TGWBS's statement here, and reaffirm my dislike of double-lynchings. Yes, it may catch you a Werewolf, but it will also kill off an innocent.

Fortunately, our village is not yet so low in numbers that we are desperately in need of every Innocent we can lay hands on, but it still seems rather wastefully imprudent to me to be lynching people off every which way we turn.

Anyway...

Having ranting against the ills of double-lynchings, let me say what I'm thinking about TGWBS, yet again:

He's innocent. At least, I think he is. Past experience leads me to think that he's being as innocently normal as we can expect. TGWBS is certainly capable of bold strokes such as he's been accused of, but I somehow don't think that he's guilty of them this time. If he is, then the Werewolves are in serious trouble, with two of their number gone.

Naria's name has also come up a fair bit today as being potentially wolfish. I'm much more hesitant to declare her innocent than TGWBS, although she has been playing to form. However, Naria's style is, by its very nature, rather quiet and cryptic. It wouldn't take much to change suspicious Innocent to suspicious Wolf in her case. I think her a more likely wolf than TGWBS, but I'm not sure yet that she's wolvish...

[Formendacil]

Crossposted, for the record, with two Gurthang posts.

[Lalaith]

Two? I see only one...

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by Lal

I'm getting confused about Guy again. I started today fairly sure I was going to vote for him but now I don't know.

You don't want to vote for me.

Yes, you do. He's a dirty werewolf!

Quiet, Abrahadam! This isn't a good time.

It's never a good time with you.

Shhh...

Originally Posted by Caran

What I mean is that if, say, I were the one under a lot of suspicion right now, I would know myself to be innocent, but I would understand if people waited until I was dead to follow my advice (since they wouldn't know I was innocent until then).

Fairy Nuff. This sounds logical.

In any case, I think we need a free vote because this stuck out to me:

Hmm. I can't find the exact quote. Basically, having rigid voting schemes will result in wolves being able to use the scheme - "I had to vote to keep with the double lynching plan - to escape detection.

So a free vote today, for later analysis.

And if I am killed and proved innocent, double lynchings thereafter. Sound's fair.

But I'd hardly call this a random sampling, since you're the one, TGWBS who picked out Naria to be lynched.

Naria doesn't have to be the other lynchee. I simply view her as more suspicious than others. Left to its own devices, I believe the village would pick Glirdan as its other lynchee.

Statistics say that if we randomly lynch two people everyday...

This isn't random. It is maths in conjunction with analysis. We pick the two most suspicious.

They do?

Yes. You refuting this, you bringing up former games, you doing anything cannot change this. If there is x chance of catching a wolf on any day, then double lynching results in a 2x chance of catching one.

And now I retire for the night. Farewell.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Two? I see only one...

Whoops!

That "other Gurthang" post was a Caralondien post, I guess...

Which serves me right for posting about cross-posting before reading what was wrote.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Caranlondien

Post #389:
Wants us to lynch Kath and then TGWBS a day later. If TGWBS were a wolf and Farael had gained any support for this plan, surely it would have meant Farael's death that night. Then again, he was desperate at this point. His attack on TGWBS is mostly based on his wanting to root out the lovers, which Farael says is mainly the concern of a wolf. But of course that's what he would say; He was one of the Lovers!

This was valuable for me to read. I remember that when I read Farael's comment about the wolves being more concerned to find the Lovers than the innocents, that my mind had been leaning that way too; but maybe Farael's words convinced me of something that does not hold water. I'll have to think about that. If it's not true, then my suspicion of Guy is suddenly not as strong as it was. He is posting a lot of sense, finally! <LMP stares meaningfully at Guy> Hmmm.... but actually Farael might name the next werewolf to be lynched. So maybe Guy is a werewolf.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Caranlondien

Well, TGWBS is perplexing, that's for sure.

I just don't know what to think. Of course his request that we double-lynch is kind of awkward. I mean, if we suspect him enough to lynch him, should we really take advice from him? If he's innocent, it's easy for him to say, "Yeah, lynch me, but lynch another person, too"... Because (if he's innocent) he knows he's innocent, so he doesn't have to worry about whether he's following the instructions of a wolf! Which is what I'm worried about right now.

Guy is right. Double lynching favors the innocents. Think it through and you'll come to the same conclusion. Whether he's innocent or guilty, Guy is right about this.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Guy

Thanks for the deep and meaningful logic.

Missed a few commas in that. Try this:

"If you, like I, conclude that Guy is a werewolf...."

Better?

[Cailín]

I am right now more confused than ever... so a good thing I'll get to sleep on it.

I am not nor have I ever been sure TGWBS is guilty. His posts toDay appear to scream misguided innocent. But having him around seems bad for my already befuddled brain. Right now I am not convinced of Naria's guilt -she has posted little, but she never has been known as a vocal, helpful player- and see more in lynching Glirdan along with The Guy. That lynching two potential wolves is most beneficial seems obvious to pretty much everyone.

I shall see you all in the morning. May the wisdom of the Prophet aid you in your choice.

[Celuien]

Sorry for lack of formatting below, but I'm somewhat pressed for time. Hopefully, it's just as good un-bolded.

Glirdan:

DAY 1:

#15: Laments Nilp, says wolves will use double lynching to their advantage. Day one nonsense directed towards Eomer about his being rich and sent to lead the lycans.

Looks pretty much like typical day 1 commentary, though wolf-Kath’s nearly simultaneous denial of double lynching (unless two wolves are identified by dream) is interesting.

#41: Says that he and Ang are the only sane villagers, makes a big deal over being asleep at night to find Nilp dead in the morning in respose to Valier‘s accusation of the unemployed.

Hmm. Sort of an extreme response to Valier, especially since it was directed at both of our jobless residents.

#44: Suggests leaving TGWBS alone

Not a bad idea. I’d agree with it myself.

#45: announcement of cross posting with Gurthang.

#82: Defends TGWBS and Farael. Accueses Garin of hiding behind an innocent tar-a.

#85: Back and forth with Garin. Says that he’s being “being very contradictive and probably confusing” by quoting rules, apologize for said confusion and retracts the statement. Wonders why Garin is being so defensive.

#95: Votes for Garin

#98: Says his vote is not apologetic, as had been suggested by Garin in 97. Makes this odd statement:

Ok, I voted for Garin because I've been meaning to for quite some time now. But then I realised that when I agreed with him that his fate is probably sealed, I realised that there were still quite a few other people that have to vote and that he may not get lynched toDay.

Trying to make a throwaway vote? Trying to cover tracks when Garin would be found innocent?

#101: Says he’s going to sleep.

DAY 2:

#167: Promises analysis of Caralondien and Valire
#168: Analysis of Valier, which he says doesn’t; get him far. Wonders why she voted for him instead of Fordmenacil.

#171: Analysis of Caralondien. Finds it odd that she says she didn’t want to vote for Ang, then did when it would be a safe vote.

Interesting point, though Cana;ondien has been quite logical and helpful recently.

#192: Says that he’s playing more boldly than usual and likes it. Suspects Naria for unnerving quietness.

#235: Oft cited comment to Lhuna, “Is this a confession?” Suspects Gurthang and Lhuina of being Lovers. Agrees that votes may have been cast to save potential Lovers Garin, Glirdan, and TGWBS. Reiterates that he has changes his style. Also accuses Cailin and Gurthang of being potential Lovers. Asks Eomer why he would attack Ang as a wolf after being accused since it makes him look suspicious. (Replied to by Eomer in 237, where he points out Gliry is jumpy over the accusation considering it was much more focused on Kath than on him).

#243: Continues to say that he would not have attacked Ang if he were a wolf because it would brig too much suspicion on to him.

#245: Votes for Naria on the basis of her being suspiciously quiet.

Defended by wolf-Lhuna in 269 (where she also quotes her day 1 defense of innocent-Garin and him).

DAY 3:

#338: Laments spawn. Finds a Kath dream more likely than a Lhuna dream. Thinks that Kath could get away with being a wolf. Asks TGWBS why the wolves would attack females only since they did attack Ang before and says that we can’t base our votes on the idea that the wolves will attack in this manner because there’s no proof that they will (in reference to the lynch all males plan).

Sensible with regard to the plan. But raises my suspicion a little with regard to dense of Lhuna. Only vaguely gives suspicion of Kath, never comes out and says if he suspects her or not - just mentions thatt a dream of Kath is more likely than Lhuna.

#340: Analysis of Eonwe.

Agree with others that there wasn’t much point to doing this.

#351: Summary of spawn‘s posts.

#399: Completed spawn analysis. Says that he doesn’t find evidence of a Kath or Lhuna dream, thinks that spawn voted for Lhuna on instinct and evidence gathering.

Still doesn’t make it clear if he finds Kath of Lhuna suspicious.

#412. Doesn’t know who to vote for. Now supports a double lynch. Says there are cases against Lhuna and Kath and that there’s not much to go on about Kath. Seems to be leaning towards voting for Naria.

I find this post just a bit odd, especially since it covers both sides of the issue with Kath, then attacks Naria mildly. I don’t know. It just feels wishy-washy and base covering. Could just be a confused innocent, but it feels wrong to me.

#414: Decides Kath is a Wolf due to flip flop on Lhuna. And votes for her.

This could speak to Glirdy’s innocence. But it came at a ‘safe’ time (as I acknowledge my vote did) if he wanted to hide his vote. Then again, would a Kath vote have been so safe once Lhuna was revealed to be guilty? That would have immediately brought suspiciousness on Kath voters if the double lynch failed after Lhuna’s identity was revealed.

Incidentally, I don’t know how much yesterday’s voting can really tell us, since there was no choice but the vote wolf for wolf without looking very suspicious. And the rest of us were voting either on genuine suspicion (which turned out to be well founded) or also to help the double lynch plan. And I’m not sure there’s any way to tease it out of the tangle.


Just a few other closing thoughts. I think Gurthang is innocent, based on his ensuring the double lynch last night (though it was pretty obvious that Lhuna was a wolf at the time he voted for her). And I still didn’t find anything to make me suspect lmp as I glanced over his posts.

Glirdan does, however, look very suspicious to me now given Lhuna’s defense of him and the various things a commented on above. I might just vote for him unless something happens to change my mind.

[tar-ancalime]

First of all, lmp, my heart is bursting with love for your chart! It has columns. It has symbols. I can almost smell the musty book it came out of...oh wait, no, I'm having one of those back-in-witch-graduate-school-instead-of-casting-spells-for-peanuts daydreams again. Got to shake that off.

I maintain that the wolves likely knew very early that Lhuna was the Beloved Wolf. If she couldn't hide in a village of 18, do you really think she could hide in a cohort of 4 schemers? So, like Lalaith said, I think we need to look very carefully at all of the Lhuna voters, who may have opportunistically taken the chance to rid themselves of this nuisance.

I also maintain, despite what seems like everyone else's opinions to the contrary, that at yesterday's stage of the game, the wolves would have preferred to keep the Lovers alive. Why? The Lovers were no danger to the wolves as yet. They would lose the game by killing off the wolves too early; they, like the wolves, would have had to concentrate on lowering the number of innocents in the village before slaughtering the wolves.

But events transpired to make it expedient for the wolves to get rid of the Lovers early: not only the village's collective suspicion of Lhuna, but Farael's increasingly abrasive and unlikely (for an ordinary villager) attacks on Kath. In fact he gave his identity away when he made the comment about tgwbs not being the Seer: he could confidently say that no Seer who had dreamed of him would accuse him, knowing that the Seer sees the Lover as an ordinary villager.

All this to reiterate the point that if we're going to look at voting record, the Lhuna voters are the ones who should get the attention. God, I'm long-winded.

[tar-ancalime]

I'm becoming more and more certain that Glirdan is a wolf. Dangerously certain, as I fear I'm becoming singleminded about it. This is not a good thing, as (a) I can't know for sure, of course, and I don't want to ignore evidence to the contrary, and (b) even if I'm right there's still another wolf out there. Anyway, so be it.

Thanks for the alternative analysis, Celuien. I'm with you on most of it but I'd like to raise a couple of points.

#171: Analysis of Caralondien. Finds it odd that she says she didn’t want to vote for Ang, then did when it would be a safe vote.

Interesting point, though Cana;ondien has been quite logical and helpful recently.

Glirdan was wrong about this. What Caranlondien said was that the village shouldn't lynch the "true lumberjack" (i.e. herself); she set up Ang as something like a false one who would not be a good replacement for her.

#338: Laments spawn. Finds a Kath dream more likely than a Lhuna dream. Thinks that Kath could get away with being a wolf. Asks TGWBS why the wolves would attack females only since they did attack Ang before and says that we can’t base our votes on the idea that the wolves will attack in this manner because there’s no proof that they will (in reference to the lynch all males plan).

Sensible with regard to the plan. But raises my suspicion a little with regard to dense of Lhuna. Only vaguely gives suspicion of Kath, never comes out and says if he suspects her or not - just mentions thatt a dream of Kath is more likely than Lhuna.

Regarding The Plan: (note, once and for all, that I was against the Plan; but not for this reason) It doesn't matter in this plan if the wolves choose to kill all women or not. However, it's likely that they would, because killing more men would only help the villagers. By lynching all the men, we would be, well, getting rid of the men; wolf kills of men would be helping us to reach our goal. So IF we were going to implement this plan, we could do it without worrying about whether or not the wolves would compliantly kill only women--if they didn't, they'd be helping us.

[SamwiseGamgee]

Originally Posted by tar-ancalime

I maintain that the wolves likely knew very early that Lhuna was the Beloved Wolf. If she couldn't hide in a village of 18, do you really think she could hide in a cohort of 4 schemers? So, like Lalaith said, I think we need to look very carefully at all of the Lhuna voters, who may have opportunistically taken the chance to rid themselves of this nuisance.

I also maintain, despite what seems like everyone else's opinions to the contrary, that at yesterday's stage of the game, the wolves would have preferred to keep the Lovers alive. Why? The Lovers were no danger to the wolves as yet. They would lose the game by killing off the wolves too early; they, like the wolves, would have had to concentrate on lowering the number of innocents in the village before slaughtering the wolves.

Is it just me or is that contradictory? But I do agree: just because you voted for Lhuna, and I'm in that category too, doesn't mean you should escape a close examination.

Anyway, sorry to come so late in the day. You know, though, how busy we bankers get: money to store, interest to collect and accounts to wind up. And alas it was with sadness that I wound up my good friend Eomer's account today. He was a great customer- very wealthy! As I look back over his superb voting and accusation record I find myself firmly suspecting one man: Glirdan. In a list of four which included two wolves and an ordo lover Eomer mentioned the above as a double-lynch candidate for today. I would, on the transpiring of evidence, agree with Eomer that (a) we should double lynch today and (b) that Glirdan should be one of those double-lynchees. But who should accompany him? Well, the obvious answer is TGWBS, but alas, I think not. Ok, so he's quite confusing and a bit 'out there', but I just don't think he's a wolf. So, it's a support of a double lynch, because I agree that whatever way you do the maths it helps us innocents, with Glirdan as one of those, but not TGWBS accompanying him.

But who, then? Well, without meaning to sound like a convert to the Church of The Guy Who Be Short, I think Naria. She's been quiet, too quiet, and we must be very careful of those wolves who would wish to lurk in the shadows (I think Farael actually said that). Kath was one of those, and I am inclined to think our dear Naria may be too.

Anyway, that's just a quick post. I hope to do more analysis before I vote, but I'd have to admit my mind is almost made up.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by tar-ancalime

I'm becoming more and more certain that Glirdan is a wolf. Dangerously certain, as I fear I'm becoming singleminded about it. This is not a good thing, as (a) I can't know for sure, of course, and I don't want to ignore evidence to the contrary, and (b) even if I'm right there's still another wolf out there. Anyway, so be it.

Thanks for the alternative analysis, Celuien. I'm with you on most of it but I'd like to raise a couple of points.


Glirdan was wrong about this. What Caranlondien said was that the village shouldn't lynch the "true lumberjack" (i.e. herself); she set up Ang as something like a false one who would not be a good replacement for her.

Oops. Sorry for the error.

Support for Carnalondien stands, by the way.

Originally Posted by tar-a

Regarding The Plan: (note, once and for all, that I was against the Plan; but not for this reason) It doesn't matter in this plan if the wolves choose to kill all women or not. However, it's likely that they would, because killing more men would only help the villagers. By lynching all the men, we would be, well, getting rid of the men; wolf kills of men would be helping us to reach our goal. So IF we were going to implement this plan, we could do it without worrying about whether or not the wolves would compliantly kill only women--if they didn't, they'd be helping us.

Okay. I guess it would have made more sense for them to even out the ratio and not to aid the village in its quest.

For the record, I was against the plan because it takes attention away from the village women, among whom two beasts have now been found. I forget where I said that before.

And another point against Glirdan. Eomer suspected him and he was two for two on Kath and Lhuna. Could he have been three for three? Maybe.

At first glance from about post 523, TGWBS appears innocent to me, although I haven't reviewed anything from earlier yet. I'll try and come back with some more on him later.

[tar-ancalime]

++ Glirdan

I just can't imagine anything happening today that would change my mind. I'm in favor of another double, but (as you can see) I feel strongly that Glirdan should be one of the two lucky candidates.

[Caranlondien]

Am I right that we have three votes so far - one for TGWBS, one for Naria, and one for Glirdan?

I'm leaning away from lynching TGWBS toDay. As has been mentioned, he's been helpful lately, and he's looking more innocent than he once did. The only reason I've mentioned him so much toDay is because I did the analysis of Farael, and that's all he talked about apart from Lhuna and Kath. But actually, Farael's focusing on him so much really does make him seem more innocent, the more I think about it, because it would be very risky to run around naming 3/4 of the werewolves.

The person I'm leaning toward lynching is Glirdan. I guess if are going to do a double-lynch, Naria is another good suspect.

The thing about double-lynchings is that yes, it increases a wolf's chances of being lynched, but that's because it increases everyone's chances - Ordos and Gifteds, too. As far as the numbers go, we can afford to lose an Ordo... but, still, I think caution is called for. I just couldn't keep myself from saying something more about it; I'm stubborn...

[Caranlondien]

I've been re-reading the posts. I'm going back and forth in my opinion on TGWBS. I sympathize with Cailín:

Originally Posted by Cailín

His posts toDay appear to scream misguided innocent. But having him around seems bad for my already befuddled brain.

She goes on to say that for the moment she's in favor of lynching Glirdan and TGWBS.

If we're going to do a double-lynch, it's pretty much accepting that we can afford to lose innocents. Maybe it would be better to lynch TGWBS along with someone else, just so that we could move on and discuss something else. Not that I think the discussion today has been a waste, because, well, he is suspicious-looking, gosh darn it!

[Celuien]

TGWBS:

Day 1:

#32: Immediately starts with the “I’m a wolf. Lynch me!” campaign made (in)famous by the dearly departed Nilp. Appears to just be in character at this point.

#36: Continues to insist he’s a wolf and campaign for votes. Says he isn’t a Lover. At least that much was true. Still looks in character at this point.

#40: Tells us Garin does not want to die. Suggests that we know where to cast our votes. Presumably for him. Again, still looks in character.

Day 2:

#150: Says he’s still a wolf. Says we shouldn’t focus too much on day 1 votes, then proceeds to say he will consider them because they aren’t entirely useless. Huh? Confusing.

#152: Day 1 voting record.

#153: Says we focus too much on Ang and he will be back to consider the voting record. Personally, I think Ang turns out to have been key to finding Kath and Lhuna, regardless of whether or not that’s really why they chose to kill him. Says that there’s a wolf in the voting somewhere since 9/22 received a vote.

Defended by Lhuna in 154.

#161: Suspects spawn and Gurthang for ‘late apathetic votes,” with Gurthang more suspicious than spawn. Says he’s still a wolf (okay, we get it), that Formendacil and Farael look iffy and that lmp looks innocent.

Given that spawn turned out to be the Seer, I wonder if this means anything. Must think it over…

#223: Suspects Eomer for not doing his research and being random with his vote for lmp. Says Eomer causes confusion and chaos. Given that Eomer was right as often as he was, I wonder. Maybe TGWBS really was trying to get rid of a dangerous opponent. Suspects Gurthang and Farael.

#229: Says he’s a wolf. Again. Says lmp can’t be blamed for pointing out the Lovers might share information. Votes for Eomer.

Day 3:

#292: Another werewolf anagram. Promises analysis of spawn, asks for 6 analyses of possible to guarantee at least one innocent in the analyzers.

#307: Spawn analysis. Concludes that an Eonwe dream was more probable than a Lhuna dream. Says spawn could have been killed to protect a wolf-Lhuna but that the wolves might also have been trying to even the gender imbalance. Ultimate conclusion is that spawn’s dream was ambiguous. This is possibly true, but given that we now know Lhuna was a wolf, it look suspicious.

#308: Says Farael does and does not make sense. Sense being that Lhuna was not dreamt of and not-sense being that Kath was. Concludes that Kath is ambiguous as well and that no wolves were dreamt of.

Hmm. Granted, there’s not way for us to know right now what spawn’s dreams were. But we know that Kath and Lhuna were wolves. TGWBS defends both mildly and, well, ambiguously. Looks very, very suspicious.

#311: Spawn quotes. Says they don’t really condemn Kath and that Farael’s and Eomer’s accusations of Kath are making him suspect them.

Worse and worse…

#315: The double lynch all men plan. I don’t think there’s any need to rehash it.

#335: Says Farael is illogical in defending Lhuna over Kath. Yep. And we know why now. Can’t argue here. But then goes on to say those pushing for a Kath lynching look bad. Again, makes him look suspicious in light of what we now know.

#342: Promotes double lynching of the male gender again.

#345: Replies somewhat cryptically to Caralondien’s criticism of his lynching plan. (Originally Posted by Caralondien
In fact, TGWBS's plan seems like one the wolves might come up with...

Wonderful percentages those...)

Eomer says that something has changed and that he has faith in TGWBS in 348. The one thing that always drove me batty about Eomer was his cryptic comments, even though I did figure out the lmp vote business. But I can’t figure this one out based on what TGWBS said to this point. We know that Eomer wasn’t a Seer. Maybe this was part of a plan to hide the real Seer from the wolves. I don’t know.

#350: Analysis of Formendacil. Conclusion: suspects him.

#354: Defends his plan. Now says that there might be a case against Lhuna. After Farael has been defending her. Makes sense if he is a wolf and now wants to get rid of the traitor. Says he’d rather get the Lovers, in fact, and would prefer sticking to lynching men.

#356/359/363/377: More about the plan. 363 admits flaws, still thinks Lovers are a big threat, wants everyone to accept double lynching and says that Farael’s evidence against Kath is less than the evidence for the plan.

#374: Continues to defend Kath, says evidence against her is soggy. Possibly true, but again, I’m finding it suspicious.

#380: Finds Gurthang innocent.

#383: Says Seer discussion is dangerous. True.

#385: Points out Naria and Kath’s silence, votes for Farael. Says to double lynch him with Lhuna if possible. Actually, this is brilliant if TGWBS is a wolf. That would have saved wolf-Kath and wasted the double on a Lover who would have died anyway. And Farael’s identity would have been obvious to a wolf at this point.

Then there’s this from Farael in 386:

TGWBS, I know you are not the seer because you are accusing me.... and I find it very unsettling how you try to manipulate the village. Of course, others may think that you are a seer who has found something, but I know you are not as I know I'm not a wolf. Thus the question remains, why are you being so manipulative? do you have other interests? all those statistics and the detraction from proper analysis.... quite odd, isn't it?

I wonder if Farael knew something.

Day 4:

Just a general summary instead of post by post. Says we can see Farael’s motives now and that it’s better to look at earlier posts by Lhuna, Kath and Farael than later ones since the later are most likely to be meant for confusion. True statements. Wonders why lmp is against him so much (I think that’s pretty obvious), defends himself about the Kath and Lhuna no-dream theory. Says he doesn’t mind being lynched as long as it’s a double so that he can take a wolf with him since he’s innocent. Analyses Kath. Wonders if he’s being set up. Posts voting list from yesterday and several lists of probable innocents, no idea, and suspicious villagers. Says that Naria hasn’t said much. (Agreed. See below.) Votes for Naria. (Disagree. Despite silence, what she has said doesn’t seem suspicious to me.) At any rate, this makes him look less suspicious if today is taken as an isolated point. But it isn’t isolated, and I can’t get past what he said over the past few days now that I’ve taken a harder look at it. So right now, I’m puzzled over what to do. One the one hand, TGWBS does look very, very fishy…erm…furry. But on the other, today’s posts do seem more like a monumentally wrong innocent than a cornered wolf.
At any rate, I’ll vote for either TGWBS or Glirdan today. I just don’t know which. Actually, TGWBS looks more suspicious overall. It’s just that I feel a little swayed by his posts today.

Since I mentioned her, on to Naria:

Day 1:

#29: In character day 1 chattiness. Comments on Gurthang’s list in post 20. Promises to return before vote time.

#103: Says she is tempted to vote for Garin, but won’t because she thinks he’s just being himself (turns out to have been correct). Says TGWBS’s suicidal vote was stupid and that if he were Nilp, she’d vote for him. So she does.

One of the three (Lalaith, Naria, and Eonwe) suspected by wolf-Lhuna in post 120 on the basis of her TGWBS vote.

Day 2:

#220: Nothing much. A busy day in the village. She’ll be back.

#225: Never thought that the Lovers would share information.

#280: Asks Thinlo why she’s so scary for being quiet. Says she’d prefer to be quiet than confusing and gives a RL reason for absence. Votes Eonwe.

Day 3:

#420: Torn between voting for Kath (just started to suspect) and Lhuna.

#429: Stand off with Gurthang. Doesn’t mean much. Explained in 443 as a ‘funny,’ where she also votes for Kath, apparently thinking he’s the remaining Seer.

#442: Says she’ll look suspicious if the last to vote.

#449: Wonders aloud if Gurthang is a wolf on the basis of pronouns (your instead of our seer).

Overall, doesn’t look suspicious from what she has said, however little. And so I’m not inclined to vote for her, especially when we have characters like Glirdan and TGWBS around.

[SamwiseGamgee]

I now know why I seem to be trusting TGWBS: Eomer, he of provenly good record, seemed to trust him. My reason for trust was was all but subconcious until I reread the posts of our departed tunemeister.

Anyway, I'm about to vote for the obvious choice, but before I do let me make an empassioned plea: double lynch today. It is a gift. We should lynch Glirdan, that I do not argue: his behaviour has been positively wolfish. But who with him? I say Naria. Now I know TGWBS has been acting somewhat suspiciously, but he has made sense. His 'cull the males' was logical, even if I didn't support it, and his analysis over today has been very helpful. I just don't think he's a wolf. They lost half their team yesterday, it wouldn't be a calculated risk for him to suggest lynching him; it'd be suicide.

Anywho, I just think Naria's the kind of player who could go very deep into the game unnoticed, and if the wolves win and she's one and we overlooked her we'll be kicking ourselves. If the second lynch is going to be a 'removal of doubt' lynch- as a few of you seem to be arguing it may well be- then let's get rid of Naria.

Edit: sorry, forgot to add my actual vote!

++ Glirdan

[Celuien]

I guess that last post was sort of long. Sorry.

Originally Posted by Caranlondien

Am I right that we have three votes so far - one for TGWBS, one for Naria, and one for Glirdan?

I think so.

Voting so far:

Thinlo-->TGWBS (TGWBS - 1)
TGWBS-->Naria (TGWBS - 1, Naria - 1)
tar-a-->Glirdan (TGWBS - 1, Naria - 1, Glirdan - 1)

And I have to go now.

++TGWBS

Sorry if you do turn out to be innocent. But you look too suspicious to me after yesterday. Far more so than anyone else.

I support the double lynch of Glirdan if suspicion of him continues to hold.

And so the updated vote is:

Thinlo-->TGWBS (TGWBS - 1)
TGWBS-->Naria (TGWBS - 1, Naria - 1)
tar-a-->Glirdan (TGWBS - 1, Naria - 1, Glirdan - 1)
Samwise-->Glirdan (TGWBS - 1, Naria - 1, Glirdan - 2)
Celuien-->TGWBS (TGWBS - 2, Naria - 1, Glirdan - 2)

EDIT: I missed Samwise's vote while typing this. List corrected above to reflect his vote.

[SamwiseGamgee]

Last post was a cross-post with Celuien. I admit my support of TGWBS isn't reasoned analysis, it's just gut feeling against my better judgement.

Choose who you will, but choose wisely, friends.

Edit: Another x-post. Celuien's last post should read Glirdan: 2; TGWBS: 2; Naria: 1

[SamwiseGamgee]

One day, Celuien, we'll time it right!

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by SamwiseGamgee

One day, Celuien, we'll time it right!

So we will!

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by tar-ancalime

I maintain that the wolves likely knew very early that Lhuna was the Beloved Wolf. If she couldn't hide in a village of 18, do you really think she could hide in a cohort of 4 schemers? So, like Lalaith said, I think we need to look very carefully at all of the Lhuna voters, who may have opportunistically taken the chance to rid themselves of this nuisance.

I also maintain, despite what seems like everyone else's opinions to the contrary, that at yesterday's stage of the game, the wolves would have preferred to keep the Lovers alive. Why? The Lovers were no danger to the wolves as yet. They would lose the game by killing off the wolves too early; they, like the wolves, would have had to concentrate on lowering the number of innocents in the village before slaughtering the wolves.

This doesn't appear contradictory to me. Rather, it points to the balance that the non-lover werewolves had to (have to) try to maintain between two polar motivations. The one being the desire to rid themselves of the Lovers, the second being the desire to rid themselves of innocent villagers. They need the villagers for goal one, and the Lovers for goal two. Glad I'm not a werewolf. Yeesh!

But I actually quoted this again because tar's point is one that slipped by me. Thank you, tar. Lhuna voters are not automatically cleared of suspicion, not even those who voted for Lhuna two days running; which admittedly includes me. Wow. That really mucks things up.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

LMP, I'm sorry you misinterpreted me. I just said "three intelligent men", because you are, how is that male-bashing???

Thanks to the guy who be furry for the summary of some of Kath's words, trying to get people to be suspicious of Lalaith & Naria. Despite my words earlier toDay that I didn't trust Lalaith, she seems to be honestly searching for the werewolves.

Wow. Five votes cast, eight to go.

Guy 2 - thin & Celuien
Glirdan 2 - tar & Sam
Naria 1 - Guy

That's a lot of votes to cast yet, but there are only two werewolves, so if we develop a consensus with Gurthang (whom I trust based on yesterDay) voting late, we can get a double lynch. Even if we don't get the double lynch, I'm still satisfied with either Guy or Glirdan going down toDay.

Since there are doubts arising in terms of Guy, I will do my part in adding to the consensus in his direction, in large part because I believe that Celuien is right about him.

++ the guy who be short

Note! - - Those who voted for Kath yesterDay are somewhat vindicated, especially those who voted for her late; the werewolves are probably not to be found amongst those numbers because it would have been expedient to save Kath and lynch only Lhuna .... with the proviso that perhaps sacrificing both might be better than sticking out like a sore thumb later as the one or two who saved Kath by pushing Lhuna over the edge alone; so take that for what it's worth.

And just for the record:

Really look like werewolves to me:
guy
Glirdan

Rather convinced of innocence due to substantive posting all game long:
Cailín
Lalaith
Gurthang

Probably innocent because of their solid help or good voting record all game long:
tar-ancalime
Caranlondien
Samwise
Formendacil

Just not sure about these folks and they really need a closer look:
Naria
Valier
Thinlomien

Good Night.

[Valier]

Well I'm afraid I looked through the posts and am still unsure. TGWBS does seem a little too helpful and I have felt that Glirdan's behavior in this game has been odd.Naria I think to be just quiet, she did vote later in the day so it helped to get both wolves killed. The one I think we should lynch would probably be Glirdan, but if a double lynch is to be held again I think it should be for The Guy. These two are just hard to "get" . Perhaps the plan of lynching a few males might not be a bad idea, then if that does not succeed try to look a little closer at the females.

I will wait a little longer before I vote, but it would be great to hear more from the "accused"

[tar-ancalime]

Perhaps the plan of lynching a few males might not be a bad idea, then if that does not succeed try to look a little closer at the females.

Lynching based on sex was only a viable option when we were looking for the Lovers, one of whom was guaranteed to be male. The men were the candidates for the systematic lynching because after the first few days, the village population was starting to skew that way.

The Lovers are dead now, so the sex of the lynch candidates is irrelevant.

[SamwiseGamgee]

I see now how the two satements are not necessarily contradictory. If I get it right then the wolves would ideally have wanted to keep the lovers alive, but when they saw an opportunity to bump their voting record up they would probably have taken it, right?

[SamwiseGamgee]

Originally Posted by Valier

Ok I think looking at the voting will help us greatly today.

There a few spots on the list that could be thought of as safe zones for wolves in my opinion.These being:

Lalaith and Samwise: Both voted for Lhuna early knowing there are more votes to come, perhaps at least one of these could be a wolf.Their two votes could be seen as unfantastic in their placement, which is good if your a wolf.

Celuien: This vote for Kath would only be the second for her so also a safe spot for a wolf.

Tar and Glirdan:These votes again for Kath are not first,but not last either.This is good cover.

Thin and TGWBS: these votes being first could be good or could suggest two wolves eager to be rid of the lovers. These two could be the wolves and they planned to vote first and for each lover hoping to double lynch both and not seems suspisious for voting both one way.

I had alot more, but I find it hard to do it all over again. I could be grasping at straws, but I think I may have something.....Back later to explain more.

Could you explain Valier? I'm not accusing you or even, to be honest, mildly suspicious (darned pouting!) but if you're about I'd just like to know what your 'something' came to.

[Caranlondien]

Some excellent points have been made since I was here last, and I've been convinced about a double lynch today. I'd be in favor of TGWBS and Glirdan, as I find them most suspicious. I'm able to stay around late to make sure the votes work out, if need be.

I believe this is how the vote stands now:

Thinlo-->TGWBS (TGWBS - 1)
TGWBS-->Naria (TGWBS - 1, Naria - 1)
tar-a-->Glirdan (TGWBS - 1, Naria - 1, Glirdan - 1)
Samwise-->Glirdan (TGWBS - 1, Naria - 1, Glirdan - 2)
Celuien-->TGWBS (TGWBS - 2, Naria - 1, Glirdan - 2)
LMP-->TGWBS (TGWBS - 3, Naria - 1, Glirdan - 2)

[SamwiseGamgee]

Caran, it'd be good if someone stayed about to ensure the double lynch takes place- we can't rely on Gurthang every time, and it's now 4.30am here in the UK, so in the interest of my health I should probably grab some Zs!

[Caranlondien]

Sure, Samwise. Luckily I don't have Linguistics, er, I mean Lumberjacking Class until late tomorrow, so I can stay up late

Just thought I'd explain my apparently sudden clarity of thought. I'm by no means certain of either of them (TGWBS and Glirdan) being guilty, but I was leaning towards suspecting them to begin with. Celuien did an excellent analysis of TGWBS.

Originally Posted by Celuien

Hmm. Granted, there’s not way for us to know right now what spawn’s dreams were. But we know that Kath and Lhuna were wolves. TGWBS defends both mildly and, well, ambiguously. Looks very, very suspicious.

I hadn't even noticed this, and it puts TGWBS back up on my list.

[SamwiseGamgee]

While I don't necessarily agree with the conclusion of Celuien's analysis (can't shake that feeling TGWBS's innocent) I must say her analysis has been excellent today, as has your's Caran. That counts for both of you, as far as I'm concerned.

[Formendacil]

Okay, I had really wished to have more time to do this, but I've been waiting for the 'Downs to come back for two hours, and I really need to go to bed, so...

++ Naria,

Because she simply seems more guilty than either TGWBS or Glirdan. These two seem completely normal to me. Naria seems normal as well, but not quite as much so...

Did that make sense?

I don't care... I'm going to bed!